Economy
US economic worries mount amid tariffs, workforce cuts
WASHINGTON
With his flurry of tariffs , government layoffs and spending freezes , there are growing worries President Donald Trump may be doing more to harm the U.S. economy than to fix it.
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The labor market remains healthy with a 4.1 percent unemployment rate and 151,000 jobs added in February.
But employment report on March 7 also found that the number of people stuck working part-time because of economic circumstances jumped by 460,000 last month. In the leisure and hospitality sectors that reflect consumers having extra money to spend, 16,000 jobs were lost.
Since January, the economic policy uncertainty index has spiked 41 percent to a level, 334.5, that in the past signaled a recession.
“I have an increasing fear we will enter into what may become known as the ‘Trump recession,'”said Nicholas Bloom, a Stanford University economist and co-developer of the uncertainty index.
“Ongoing policy turbulence and a tariff war could tip the U.S. economy into its first recession in five years.” That last recession occurred under Trump because of the coronavirus pandemic.
For his part, Trump seems comfortable with the uncertainty that he’s generating, saying that any financial pain from import taxes is a mere “disruption” that will eventually lead to more factories relocating to the United States and stronger growth.
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If Trump’s tariffs backfire, much of the price would be paid by everyday Americans who could suffer from job losses, lower wages, higher inflation and, possibly, an injured sense of national pride.
“Markets anticipate,” said John Silvia, CEO of Dynamic Economic Strategy. “The turn down the dark alley of tariffs signals higher inflation, slower economic growth and a weaker U.S. dollar. It is an economic horror movie in slow motion.”
There were multiple signs of uncertainty and concerns about the tariffs in the Federal Reserve’s beige book.
Published last week, the beige book included 47 references to uncertainty, up from just 17 in the previous edition in January.
“Many businesses noted heightened economic uncertainty and expressed concern about tariffs,” the Fed’s New York branch reported.
“Looking ahead, businesses were notably less optimistic.”
“This is the perfect storm for businesses,” said Brian Bethune, an economist at Boston College. “How can you possibly plan anything in this environment?”
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Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on March 7 on CNBC that suggested a core problem is that the U.S. economy has become overly reliant on government deficits and that the Trump administration would be fostering stronger growth in the private sector.
“We’ve become addicted to this government spending, and there’s going to be a detox period,” he said.
This particular form of economic rehab is coming from Trump’s Department of Government Efficiency, which is led by Elon Musk.
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But the initiative has started to downsize the federal workforce in ways that could surface in future jobs reports.
Roughly 75,000 employees took the deferred resignation plan. There are also thousands of probationary federal workers who were fired and tens of thousands of layoffs to come based on the administration’s plans.
STOCKHOLM
Sweden’s government said it will hold talks with food producers and distributers as a consumer movement over soaring costs in the Nordic country gains traction.
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Annual food price inflation in Sweden hit its highest rate in two years in February at 3.9 percent.
Meanwhile, the independent watchdog site Matpriskollen (The Food Price Checker) found in January that prices in Swedish grocery stores had risen by 19.1 percent over two years.
“In view of the rapid price developments in the first months of the year and the rising prices in recent years, the Minister of Finance and Rural Affairs Minister will invite selected actors from the food supply chain for talks,” the government said in a statement.
The aim of the talks is to “listen to the industry’s assessment of the situation and work together to lower prices for customers,” it added.
The move comes as a viral online campaign calling for a boycott of major grocery stores next week has picked up speed.
One of the campaigners, Annika Morina, told newspaper Aftonbladet that she reached her breaking point buying tomato puree on Valentine’s Day.
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“It had gone up 50 percent. I’ve seen these kinds of boycotts in countries in the Balkans and felt: ‘Why don’t things like that happen in Sweden?’,” she said.
She posted a video to TikTok calling for the boycott which has received tens of thousands of views and according to Aftonbladet thousands are expected to join the boycott.
Consumers in Croatia frustrated by soaring prices massively joined two boycott calls in January, sending daily sales down by over 40 percent.
LONDON
Britain’s Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves (C) meets with defence suppliers at RAF Northolt on March 6, 2025 in Ruislip, west of London. Reeves met with UK defence suppliers to Ukraine.
The British government said on March 14 that it would increase its export credit facilities for weapons manufacturers by two billion pounds ($2.6 billion) to boost overseas sales.
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The new funds “will see billions of pounds unlocked for U.K. defence companies that export overseas, driving economic growth and creating jobs across the U.K.,” it said in a statement.
Already the U.K. Export Finance agency has a lending capacity of eight billion pounds specifically for government clients of defence contractors, bringing the new total to 10 billion pounds.
Like other countries across Europe, Britain is racing to beef up its military production capabilities in the face of an expansionist Russia, pressure on European members of NATO to spend more on defence, and questions over President Donald Trump’s commitment to U.S. protection of Europe.
British Prime Minister Keir Starmer pledged ahead of a White House visit in February to boost defence spending to 2.5 percent of the economy by 2027, with the aim of hiking it to 3.0 percent in the next parliament.
“The world is changing, and we must bring about a new era of security and renewal that protects working people and keeps our country safe,” Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves said in the statement.
ANKARA
The services production index increased by 6 percent on an annual basis in January, gathering pace from the previous month’s 2.6 percent rise, data from the Turkish Statistical Institute (TÜİK) showed on March 14.
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The monthly increase in the index also quickened from 1.3 percent in December to 2.5 percent in January.
The index for transportation and storage services increased by 3.2 percent year-on-year but declined by 0.5 percent month-on-month.
Accommodation and food services rose 9.6 percent from a year ago and 0.5 percent compared to the previous month, the statistics authority said.
The annual and monthly increases in the index for information and communication services were 9.9 percent and 6.4 percent, respectively.
Real estate services rose 8.9 percent year-on-year, according to TÜİK data.
The prevalent price-setting behavior in the services sector leads to significant inertia and causes the impact of shocks on inflation to extend over a long time period, the Central Bank said in the summary of the March 6 Monetary Policy Committee meeting released on March 13.
Services inflation remains higher than goods inflation, it said, adding that having slowed down in the final quarter of 2024, services inflation increased in January due to the effects of items with time-dependent pricing.
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