Economy
Labor crunch prompts Russia to pivot to India for workers
A tired group of Indian men with sports bags stood in line at passport control at a bustling Moscow airport one recent evening after traveling more than 2,700 miles, including a stop in Uzbekistan, in search of work.
“I have a contract for one year. In the rubbish disposal business. The money is good,” said Ajit, one of the men, speaking in English.
Faced with what the authorities say is an immediate shortage of at least 2.3 million workers, a shortfall exacerbated by the strain of Russia’s war in Ukraine and one that Russia’s traditional source of foreign labor – Central Asians – is not able to fill, Moscow is turning to a new supplier: India.
Indian influx helps make up labor shortfall
In 2021, a year before Russia sent its troops into Ukraine, some 5,000 work permits were approved for Indian nationals. Last year, almost 72,000 permits were okayed for Indians – nearly a third of the total annual quota for migrant workers on visas.
“Currently, expatriate employees from India are the most popular,” said Alexei Filipenkov, director of a company that brings in Indian workers.
He said workers from ex-Soviet Central Asia, who do not need visas, had stopped coming in sufficient numbers. Official figures show they still made up the majority of some 2.3 million legal foreign workers not requiring a visa last year, however.
But a weaker ruble, tougher migration laws, and increasingly sharp anti-immigrant rhetoric from Russian politicians have eroded their numbers and encouraged Moscow to boost visa quotas for workers from elsewhere.
The choice of India for unskilled labor reflects strong defense and economic ties between Moscow and New Delhi.
India has been buying discounted Russian oil that Moscow – due to Western sanctions – cannot easily sell elsewhere, although that may now be in question.
President Vladimir Putin and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi signed a deal in December to make it easier for Indians to work in Russia. Denis Manturov, Russia’s first deputy prime minister, said at the time that Russia could accept an “unlimited number” of Indian workers.
At least 800,000 people were needed in manufacturing, and another 1.5 million in the service and construction sectors, he said.
Indian workers in Russian factories, farms
Brera Intex, a Moscow textiles company, has hired around 10 workers from South Asia, including Indians, to make curtains and bed linen.
Sat at a sewing machine, 23-year-old Gaurav from India said he had been working in Russia for three months.
“I was told to come (over) to this side, that the work and money are good,” he said. “Russian life is very good.”
Married with two children, he said he spoke to his family back in India by phone every day and told them he missed them.
Olga Lugovskaya, the company’s owner, said the workers – with the help of samples and supervision – had picked up the work in time and were highly motivated.
“Some of the guys who came in didn’t even know how to switch on a sewing machine,” she said. “(But) after two or three months, you could already trust them to sew a proper finished item.”
Outside Moscow, the Sergiyevsky farm relies on Indian workers too, using them to process and pack vegetables for an average salary of about 50,000 rubles ($660) per month, a salary for which the farm says locals will not work.
“I have been working here, at Sergiyevsky, for one year,” said Sahil, 23, who said he was from India’s Punjab region.
“In India, there is little money, but here there is a lot of money. The work is here.”
U.S. pressure on India to halt its purchases of Russian oil – something President Donald Trump has linked to a trade deal between the United States and India announced this month – could yet dampen Moscow’s appetite for Indian workers.
But for now, it’s unclear how New Delhi will recalibrate its oil purchases, and Moscow has played down any suggestion of tensions.
Türkiye imported a record amount of silver last month, marking a monthly high, as prices of the precious metal rose at an unprecedented level at the start of the year, a report showed on Tuesday.
The country imported 273.3 tons of silver in January, compared to 31.55 tons in January 2025, Anadolu Agency (AA) reported, citing data from the Turkish stock exchange Borsa Istanbul’s precious metals market report.
The figure was also up from December’s 65.56 tons, according to the report.
At the same time, Türkiye’s gold imports totaled 7.79 tons last month, down from 9.65 tons in January 2025 and 10.92 tons in December.
Silver prices surged over 50% through January, buoyed by higher industrial demand, tightening physical conditions, and geopolitical tensions.
However, after hitting a historic high of $121.67 per ounce at the end of January, silver prices have fallen more than 33% since the start of February, due to easing geopolitical tensions and falling expectations of a Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cut.
The choice of Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair set off a wave of selling in risk assets that had sent precious metals tumbling, reversing much of the gains recorded in January.
Warsh, whom the markets see as hawkish in relation to monetary policy, if confirmed, is likely to succeed Jerome Powell, who often was at odds with U.S. President Donald Trump over the pace of rate cuts.
Simmering tensions between the U.S. and Iran, which appeared to have somewhat eased in recent days, are also considered to have pushed prices of gold and silver down. However, small fluctuations are still visible.
On Wednesday morning, spot silver was up 3.4% at $83.40 per ounce, after falling more than 3% in the previous session.
Gold prices also gained slightly on Wednesday, buoyed by a weaker dollar and lower Treasury yields, while investors awaited key U.S. jobs data later in the day for clues on the Federal Reserve’s policy outlook.
Spot gold was 0.5% higher at $5,048.27 per ounce by 08:31 a.m. GMT. U.S. gold futures for April delivery gained 0.8% to $5,072.60 per ounce.
Gold was at nearly $5,600 on Jan. 29, the highest on record. Retail and central banks’ demand around the world has spurred prices of gold to unseen levels and investors and analysts predict they are likely to maintain an upward momentum this year.
China’s consumer prices eased in January and missed forecasts, official data showed Wednesday, as leaders unveiled a batch of measures aimed at boosting sluggish spending during the upcoming Lunar New Year holiday, which is expected to trigger consumption activity.
The world’s No. 2 economy has been hamstrung by lackluster domestic consumption since the end of the COVID-19 pandemic, presenting a major hurdle to government growth targets.
But this year’s nine-day public holiday – the longest in history – starts on Sunday and has been touted by officials as a chance to kickstart activity.
In the latest blow to efforts to revive economic activity, figures from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) on Wednesday showed the consumer price index (CPI), a key measure of inflation, slowed to 0.2% year-over-year in January.
That was well down from December’s 0.8%, which was the quickest in almost three years, and more than the 0.4% rise forecast in a Bloomberg survey.
China’s vast economy has stagnated in recent years, despite a historic boom in exports.
Authorities have adopted measures to boost consumption, including a subsidy scheme for household goods, but results have been muted.
Consumer inflation is “likely to bounce back in February,” wrote Zichun Huang of Capital Economics. But she added that “with the imbalances between supply and demand set to persist, we doubt China’s deflationary pressures will fade any time soon.”
Officials vowed at a news conference in Beijing on Wednesday to enact further measures to encourage domestic spending.
Local authorities across China have allocated 2.05 billion yuan ($297 million) to “directly benefit consumers” during the upcoming holiday, said Vice Minister of Commerce Sheng Qiuping.
The “New Year’s gifts” will be distributed through vouchers, subsidies and traditional red envelopes containing money, state broadcaster CCTV said.
Factory gate prices decline at a slower pace
Other data released Wednesday suggested a recent easing of persistent deflation in the manufacturing sector.
Prices at the factory gate – stuck in negative territory since October 2022 – fell at a slower rate last month, NBS data showed.
The producer price index’s (PPI) 1.4% year-over-year decrease was the slowest pace of deflation since July 2024.
It was also slightly better than the 1.5% decrease forecast in the Bloomberg survey.
Improvements were “concentrated in non-ferrous metals, likely reflecting recent volatility in global commodity markets,” wrote Huang.
PPI expanded 0.4% month-over-month.
That growth “suggests the deflationary pressure in the manufacturing sector may have become less severe,” wrote Zhang Zhiwei, president and chief economist of Pinpoint Asset Management.
Official data released last month showed China’s economy grew 5% in 2025, meeting the government’s target but among the slowest rates in decades.
Experts expect leaders to announce the same or a slightly lower goal for this year at a key political gathering in early March.
Valentine’s Day spending, combined with the additional demand from Ramadan, coming in the same period this year, is expected to boost e-commerce volume in February in Türkiye, sector representatives said on Tuesday.
The e-commerce volume is expected to top TL 400 billion ($9.1 billion), according to Hakan Çevikoğlu, president of the Electronic Commerce Operators Association (ETID).
Valentine’s Day creates a significant spike in demand in the sector as the first major campaign period of the year in e-commerce, Çevikoğlu told Anadolu Agency (AA).
He noted that with the campaigns starting from the last week of January, there has been noticeable activity in both transaction volume and user interaction on e-commerce platforms as well as with retailers.
Valentine’s Day, which comes later this week, is traditionally a popular period when an uptick in sales of fresh flowers and personalized gifts occurs, both in Türkiye and worldwide.
At the same time, the holy month of Ramadan, which this year begins on Feb. 19, is a time when families and friends often come together for breaking the fast (iftar) and when dishes are prepared with utmost diligence.
Ahead of Ramadan, individuals and families tend to do larger shopping, purchasing foods and drinks specific to this month, such as dates and special types of flavored juices (sherbets).
Sales rise of 50% to 60%
“The combination of Valentine’s Day week with pre-Ramadan shopping is expected to signal a stronger demand outlook in e-commerce sales across the sector,” Çevikoğlu maintained.
“Therefore, in addition to gift-focused categories, we anticipate that sales in food and fast-moving consumer goods related to Ramadan will increase by an average of 50%-60%,” he added.
Noting that the Valentine’s Day campaigns, along with Ramadan needs, will not only create a short-term sales momentum, Çevikoğlu said they expect e-commerce to stand out as a strategic period that shapes the sector’s first-quarter performance and allows insights into consumer trends for the rest of the year.
Furthermore, he highlighted that the most demanded categories in e-commerce during this period are clothing, cosmetics, electronics, jewelry and accessories, home decoration and Valentine’s Day-themed gift products.
Consumer preferences
“Flowers and chocolates, as every year, are among the indispensables of this special day, while the impact of the winter season sees noticeable activity in products like sweaters, blankets and specially printed textiles,” he noted.
Çevikoğlu explained that there has been a shift in gift preferences toward more meaningful, experience-based and personalization-focused items in recent years.
“Consumers are increasingly turning to experience-based gifts such as travel, concert and event tickets, vacation and hotel reservations, alongside traditional products,” he said.
“Donations to associations or non-governmental organizations (NGOs) in the name of loved ones, tree planting, and scholarship support, which contain social responsibility aspects, are also becoming more widespread,” he added.
“We expect the e-commerce volume in February to exceed TL 400 billion. During this period, the average basket size is expected to rise to around TL 3,000 to TL 5,000 due to the effect of Valentine’s Day campaigns,” Çevikoğlu also said.
Israel’s targeting of Palestinian labor following the genocidal Gaza war has pushed the occupied West Bank deeper into economic crisis, leaving tens of thousands without income and raising fears of social collapse.
With most work permits revoked and only a fraction restored, families that once depended on higher-paying jobs inside Israel are struggling to afford food, rent and basic necessities, as unemployment surges and desperation spreads across the occupied territory.
Hanadi Abu Zant has been unable to pay the rent on her West Bank apartment for almost a year since her permit to work in Israel was revoked. When her landlord contacts the police, she takes refuge in a mosque.
“My biggest fear is being kicked out of my home. Where will we sleep, on the street?” she said, wiping tears from her cheeks.
She is among some 100,000 Palestinians whose work permits were revoked since Israel’s relentless war on Gaza began. Confined to the occupied territory, where jobs are scarce and wages far lower, they face dwindling and dangerous options as the economic crisis deepens.
Some have sold their belongings or gone into debt as they try to pay for food, electricity and school expenses for their children. Others have paid steep fees for black-market permits or tried to sneak into Israel, risking arrest or worse.
Israel, which has been occupying the West Bank for nearly six decades, claims it is under no obligation to allow Palestinians to enter for work and makes such decisions based on security considerations. Thousands of Palestinians are still allowed to work in scores of Jewish settlements across the West Bank, built on land they want for a future state.
Risk of collapse
The World Bank has warned that the West Bank economy is at risk of collapse because of Israel’s restrictions. By the end of last year, unemployment had surged to nearly 30% compared with around 12% before the war, according to the Palestinian Central Bureau of Statistics.
Israel’s genocidal war has killed over 72,000 people in Gaza, mostly women and children, since Oct. 7, 2023, after Palestinian resistance group Hamas’ surprise cross-border attack, according to the Health Ministry. The U.N. and independent experts consider it the most reliable source on war casualties.
Since the last October cease-fire, Israel’s attacks have killed more than 580 Palestinians.
Before the war, tens of thousands of Palestinians worked inside Israel, mainly in construction and service jobs. Wages can be more than double those in the landlocked West Bank, where decades of Israeli checkpoints, land seizures and other restrictions have weighed heavily on the economy.
About 100,000 Palestinians had work permits that were revoked after the outbreak of the war. Israel has since reinstated fewer than 10,000, according to Gisha, an Israeli group advocating for Palestinian freedom of movement.
Wages earned in Israel injected some $4 billion into the Palestinian economy in 2022, according to the Institute for National Security Studies, an Israeli think tank. That’s equivalent to about two-thirds of the Palestinian Authority’s budget that year.
Israel seized the West Bank, Gaza and East Jerusalem in the 1967 Mideast war, territories the Palestinians want back for a future state. Some 3 million Palestinians live in the West Bank, along with over 500,000 Israeli settlers who can come and go freely.
The war in Gaza has brought a spike in settler violence. And military operations that Israel claims are aimed at dismantling armed groups have caused heavy damage in the West Bank and displaced tens of thousands of Palestinians.
‘My refrigerator, it’s empty’
After her husband left five years ago, Abu Zant secured a job at a food-packing plant in Israel that paid around $1,400 a month, enough to support her four children. When the war erupted, she thought the ban would only last a few months. She baked pastries for friends to scrape by.
While there are no definite figures, tens of thousands of Palestinians are believed to be working illegally in Israel, according to Esteban Klor, professor of economics at Israel’s Hebrew University and a senior researcher at the INSS. Some risk their lives trying to cross Israel’s separation barrier, which consists of 9-meter-high (30-foot) concrete walls, fences and closed military roads.
Shuhrat Barghouthi’s husband has spent five months in prison for trying to climb the barrier to enter Israel for work, she said. Before the war, the couple worked in Israel, earning a combined $5,700 a month. Now they are both unemployed and around $14,000 in debt.
“Come and see my refrigerator, it’s empty, there’s nothing to feed my children,” she said. She can’t afford to heat her apartment, where she hasn’t paid rent in two years. She says her children are often sick and frequently go to bed hungry.
Sometimes she returns home to see her belongings strewn in the street by the landlord, who has been trying to evict them.
Forced to work in settlements
Of the roughly 48,000 Palestinians who worked in Israeli settlements before the war, more than 65% have kept their permits, according to Gisha. The Palestinians and most of the international community view the settlements, which have rapidly expanded in recent years, as illegal.
Palestinians employed in the settlements, speaking on condition of anonymity for fear of retribution, say their employers have beefed up security since the start of the war and are far more willing to fire anyone stepping out of line, knowing there are plenty more desperate for work.
Two Palestinians working in the Mishor Adumim settlement said security guards look through workers’ phones and revoke their permits arbitrarily.
Israelis have turned to foreign workers to fill jobs held by Palestinians, but some say it’s a poor substitute because they cost more and do not know the language. Palestinians speak Arabic, but those who work in Israel are often fluent in Hebrew.
Raphael Dadush, an Israeli developer, said the permit crackdown has resulted in costly delays.
Before the war, Palestinians made up more than half of his workforce. He’s tried to replace them with Chinese workers but says it’s not exactly the same.
Assaf Adiv, the executive director of an Israeli group advocating for Palestinian labor rights, said there has to be some economic integration, or there will be “chaos.”
“The alternative to work in Israel is starvation and desperation,” he said.
This week’s release of the first quarterly inflation report of 2026 by the Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye (CBRT) is expected to serve as an early test of the country’s disinflation drive.
Analysts broadly expect policymakers to revise their year-end inflation forecasts upward, but markets will also be looking at potential clues on the interest rate path for the coming months.
Annual consumer price growth has continued to ease steadily, though monthly volatility has persisted. That is seen as one of the factors behind the central bank’s more cautious easing cycle.
Some officials and analysts now say policymakers may need to either slow the pace of rate cuts that began more than a year ago or tolerate a slower rate of disinflation. Most expect a combination of both.
Authorities have been pursuing a more than 2.5-year effort to curb inflation, which has gradually fallen to around 30% as of last month, after peaking near 75% in mid-2024.
Vice President Cevdet Yılmaz said on Saturday that Türkiye’s tight and disciplined monetary and fiscal policies were vital but “not enough,” stressing that supply-side policies could also help to tame annual inflation that had risen as high as 75% in mid-2024.
Yılmaz said the 45-point fall in inflation since May 2024 was not enough, adding the government was on a path to further lower consumer prices.
“We will maintain our tight monetary policy, we will keep our disciplined fiscal policies, we are determined to do this. But these are not enough either. On the other hand, we have to contribute to our battle with inflation through our supply-side policies,” he added.
Lifting forecasts
Attention will turn to Thursday’s inflation report, where Governor Fatih Karahan is widely expected to raise the bank’s year-end forecast from the current 13%-19% range.
Karahan could even nudge the bank’s interim end-2026 target up from 16%, though that move is less certain, given that the target is meant to remain largely fixed in order to guide policy expectations, the analysts say.
Last month, consumer price inflation surged nearly 5% month-over-month, a higher-than-expected uptick that officials attributed to “seasonal factors” and one-off adjustments.
It is expected to slow to around 3% this month.
Easing cyle
Monetary policy easing has zig-zagged since the central bank first cut its key interest rate from 50% in late 2024.
Nearly a year ago, it briefly reversed course due to market volatility, and has since slashed rates by 300 basis points, then 250, 100, 150, and again by 100 points to 37% last month.
Having already slowed its easing, the central bank warned last month about risks to the disinflation process and said it would tighten policy if there were a “significant deviation in inflation outlook from the interim targets.”
Some analysts predict the central bank may need to pause the cuts, possibly as soon as its next rate decision in March, to avoid this deviation.
Wall Street bank JPMorgan raised its year-end consumer price index (CPI) forecast to 24% from 23% and predicted a series of 100-point cuts this year, with the chance of a smaller easing in March due to restaurant and food price pressure during the Muslim holy month of Ramadan.
A Republican lawmaker has called on U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick to step down over his alleged links to convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein, citing newly released court files as the saga over high-profile ties to disgraced financier deepens.
Representative Thomas Massie told broadcaster CNN in an interview published on Sunday that the documents suggest Lutnick visited Epstein’s private Caribbean island and maintained business ties with him years after Epstein pleaded guilty to child prostitution charges in 2008.
“He’s got a lot to answer for, but really, he should make life easier on (U.S. President Donald Trump), frankly, and just resign,” Massie said.
Epstein, who ran a long-running sexual abuse operation involving young women and minors, died by suicide in jail in 2019 while awaiting further prosecution. Lutnick is mentioned repeatedly in the recently unsealed Epstein files, though inclusion in the records does not in itself indicate wrongdoing.
U.S. media, citing emails contained in the documents, reported that Lutnick and his family planned a visit to Epstein’s island, Little St. James, in 2012, with a follow-up message suggesting the trip may have taken place. The island has previously been described as the center of Epstein’s abuse network.
According to The New York Times, Lutnick and Epstein, who were neighbors in New York, invested in the same private company, while CBS News said the two appeared to have business dealings after Epstein became a known sex offender.
Lutnick had said in a podcast last year that he decided in 2005 never to be in the same room again with Epstein, whom he called a “disgusting person.”
The New York Times reported that Lutnick said in a brief phone call last week that he had spent “zero time” with Epstein.
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