Household inflation expectation in Türkiye improved slightly in June, while those of market participants and the real sector remained broadly unchanged, a survey published by the country’s central bank showed on Monday.

According to the Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye (CBRT), 12-month ahead annual inflation expectations of households decreased 3.38 percentage points to 46.13%.

Moreover, for June 2026, 12-month ahead annual inflation expectations decreased by 0.01 points compared to the previous month for market participants, falling to 23.81%. For the real sector, the figure remained unchanged at 33.10%.

The 12-month ahead expectations among the household category were recorded at the lowest level this year, marking an improvement from 51.56% in April and 49.51% in May, according to the CBRT survey.

Turkish officials had often in the past emphasized rigidness in inflation expectations, particularly among households, while also indicating that the improvement in inflation expectations contributes to the disinflation process.

The disinflation process has, however, slowed down in the face of rising energy prices following the start of the U.S.-Israel-Iran war in February.

The consumer price index (CPI) increased 32.6% from a year ago in May, up from 32.4% in April, official data showed earlier this month.

CBRT raised its year-end interim inflation target to 24% from 16% last month, while at the time warning that the short-term inflationary effects of the Iran war would remain “pronounced.”

The bank, in its last monetary policy committee (MPC) meeting, also decided to keep rates on hold, at 37%, citing that it is closely monitoring “the impact of geopolitical developments on the inflation outlook.”

The bank thus joined many of the global peers, including the Federal Reserve (Fed) and the Bank of England (BoE), which similarly opted to keep rates unchanged, while following the effects of the war.

Yet, the recent breakthrough in talks between the U.S. and Iran has resulted in oil prices easing to pre-war levels, boosting the sentiment in global markets and providing a sign of relief for importing countries.

Earlier this month, while pledging that the government’s disinflation stance remains “firm,” Treasury and Finance Minister Mehmet Şimşek said that inflation this year might be in the “mid-20s, if not high 20s.”

The banking giant BBVA, in its research published last week, said it expects the disinflation process “to remain broadly on track” against a softer growth backdrop in the short term.

“Persistent inflationary pressures and external uncertainties warrant a more cautious policy outlook, while selective easing is likely to continue within an overall restrictive policy mix,” it added.

In a statement on Monday, evaluating the survey, Şimşek reiterated they “continue to work with determination in line with our disinflation target.”

The escalation of geopolitical developments in increasing energy prices has created downward pressure on the short-term inflation outlook, negatively affecting expectations, he said in a post on the social media platform X.

“By utilizing the fiscal space we created through our program, we swiftly and effectively implemented the necessary measures, particularly the sliding scale mechanism, to prevent a permanent deterioration in expectations,” he added, referring to a special system limiting the increase in fuel prices to be passed onto consumers.

He also cited that in June, household inflation expectations for 12 months ahead “improved by 3.4 points compared to the previous month.”

“We expect the normalization of energy prices, as geopolitical tensions ease, to support the improvement in expectations,” he noted.

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Household inflation expectation in Türkiye improved slightly in June, while those of market participants and the real sector remained broadly unchanged, a survey published by the country’s central bank showed on Monday.

According to the Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye (CBRT), 12-month ahead annual inflation expectations of households decreased 3.38 percentage points to 46.13%.

Moreover, for June 2026, 12-month ahead annual inflation expectations decreased by 0.01 points compared to the previous month for market participants, falling to 23.81%. For the real sector, the figure remained unchanged at 33.10%.

The 12-month ahead expectations among the household category were recorded at the lowest level this year, marking an improvement from 51.56% in April and 49.51% in May, according to the CBRT survey.

Turkish officials had often in the past emphasized rigidness in inflation expectations, particularly among households, while also indicating that the improvement in inflation expectations contributes to the disinflation process.

The disinflation process has, however, slowed down in the face of rising energy prices following the start of the U.S.-Israel-Iran war in February.

The consumer price index (CPI) increased 32.6% from a year ago in May, up from 32.4% in April, official data showed earlier this month.

CBRT raised its year-end interim inflation target to 24% from 16% last month, while at the time warning that the short-term inflationary effects of the Iran war would remain “pronounced.”

The bank, in its last monetary policy committee (MPC) meeting, also decided to keep rates on hold, at 37%, citing that it is closely monitoring “the impact of geopolitical developments on the inflation outlook.”

The bank thus joined many of the global peers, including the Federal Reserve (Fed) and the Bank of England (BoE), which similarly opted to keep rates unchanged, while following the effects of the war.

Yet, the recent breakthrough in talks between the U.S. and Iran has resulted in oil prices easing to pre-war levels, boosting the sentiment in global markets and providing a sign of relief for importing countries.

Earlier this month, while pledging that the government’s disinflation stance remains “firm,” Treasury and Finance Minister Mehmet Şimşek said that inflation this year might be in the “mid-20s, if not high 20s.”

The banking giant BBVA, in its research published last week, said it expects the disinflation process “to remain broadly on track” against a softer growth backdrop in the short term.

“Persistent inflationary pressures and external uncertainties warrant a more cautious policy outlook, while selective easing is likely to continue within an overall restrictive policy mix,” it added.

In a statement on Monday, evaluating the survey, Şimşek reiterated they “continue to work with determination in line with our disinflation target.”

The escalation of geopolitical developments in increasing energy prices has created downward pressure on the short-term inflation outlook, negatively affecting expectations, he said in a post on the social media platform X.

“By utilizing the fiscal space we created through our program, we swiftly and effectively implemented the necessary measures, particularly the sliding scale mechanism, to prevent a permanent deterioration in expectations,” he added, referring to a special system limiting the increase in fuel prices to be passed onto consumers.

He also cited that in June, household inflation expectations for 12 months ahead “improved by 3.4 points compared to the previous month.”

“We expect the normalization of energy prices, as geopolitical tensions ease, to support the improvement in expectations,” he noted.

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Households in Türkiye were less pessimistic in June as the consumer confidence rose to the highest level in just over three years, official data showed on Monday.

The consumer confidence index rose to 87.9 in June from 85.8 in May, according to the Turkish Statistical Institute (TurkStat).

Moreover, this was the highest reading since May 2023. Nonetheless, a score below 100 indicates a pessimistic outlook.

The financial situation expectation of households over the next year improved, with the corresponding index rising to 89.5 from 87.9. Similarly, the index measuring the general economic situation over the next twelve months improved to 83.9 from 81.4. The index measuring the financial situation of households at present increased to 72.3 from 69.2.

The survey revealed that the sub-index for assessment on spending money on durable goods over the next 12 months remained more positive and strengthened to 105.9 from 104.5.

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China announced Monday it added MP Materials, USA Rare Earth, as well as eight ​other U.S. entities, which it claimed are linked to the U.S. military, to its export control list in ⁠retaliation for Washington placing several ⁠Chinese companies under restrictions this month.

Aveox, a motor manufacturer for mission-critical applications, was also among those placed on the list, ​which halts Chinese dual-use exports to the companies.

Pentagon-backed ​MP Materials, ⁠which operates the only active rare earth mine in the U.S., and USA Rare Earth are both involved in the mine-to-magnet supply chain.

The three U.S. companies were not available for comment outside of business hours.

The measures are a response to the “U.S. government’s malicious practice” and were taken to safeguard national security and interests, as well as to fulfil international obligations such as non-proliferation, China’s Commerce Ministry said in a statement on Monday.

“Organizations and individuals in any country or ⁠region ⁠are prohibited from transferring or supplying dual-use items originating in China to those entities,” it said, adding that export activities should be stopped immediately.

The move amounts to a full ban on dual-use exports to the named firms, tightening rules that previously only required export licences.

Analysts said, however, that China’s actions were a largely symbolic response to the Pentagon’s 1260H list of Chinese tech companies it believes ⁠to be aiding the Chinese military. The list was updated this month to include e-commerce giant Alibaba, internet search provider Baidu, and automakers BYD and NIO.

“Most of ​the companies are U.S. defense industry players, or they have close connections ​with the U.S. government… Those companies are not going to do business in China, so the impact will be quite ⁠symbolic,” ‌said George ‌Chen, partner for Greater China at the Asia ⁠Group, a geopolitical advisory firm.

“Beijing’s move ‌today is a proportional response to the Department of War’s 1260H list.”

In a separate ​notice, China’s finance ministry ⁠said it has decided to take measures against 46 ⁠U.S. companies. Chinese buyers are now barred from procuring any products ⁠manufactured by them, though ​U.S.-funded enterprises operating in China can still do so.

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Simon Boyd runs a company on England’s south coast that manufactures prefabricated steel structures and exports them to destinations as far as Ghana and Barbados. Meanwhile, Mike Hawes leads the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders, representing the interests of the U.K.’s automotive industry.

The business leaders were on different sides of the debate when Britain voted to leave the European Union in 2016. But 10 years later, they are both frustrated by Brexit.

A decade ago, backers promised that Brexit would be the key to a bright new future in which, freed from the edicts of EU bureaucrats, Britain would regain control of its laws and borders, and the economy would boom. But the reality failed to live up to the hype as Britain struggled to adjust to life without unfettered access to the 27-nation free trade bloc and its market of 450 million people.

Economic growth is anemic, taxes are high, public services are creaking and successive governments have been unable to stem the flow of migrants who wash up on the English Channel coast in inflatable boats. As a result, it’s not exactly a happy anniversary.

“No, it’s not delivered everything that was said it would deliver on the tin, but it is delivering,” Boyd told The Associated Press (AP). “It’s very sluggish. You only need to look at the statistics to see that.”

Boyd, the managing director of REIDSteel, which employs about 130 people at a plant in Christchurch, England, still stands behind his decision to support Brexit, but blames lackluster results on politicians who weren’t committed to delivering.

Britain has also experienced unexpected challenges over the past 10 years, from the COVID-19 pandemic to the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East, Boyd said.

The Brexit vote quickly increased costs for businesses as they prepared for an uncertain future during years of negotiation over the U.K.’s new relationship with the EU. Then, when Britain finally left the bloc on Jan. 31, 2020, new rules governing trade in goods and services made it more expensive and time-consuming to do business with European partners.

Creon Butler, who leads the global economy and finance program at Chatham House, a London-based think tank, said there were long-term consequences to leaving the European single market.

“Whatever was promised, whatever one hoped for, (you have) to accept that it has been a major loss of wealth and prosperity for us through the choice we made to leave,” he said.

“That’s a decision the British public have made, and they’re entitled to make it, but it does make us poorer,” he added.

By most measures, the British economy today is weaker than it would have been without Brexit, according to a recent report published by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) in Cambridge, Massachusetts. The report, compiled by researchers in Britain, Germany and the U.S., compares the performance of the U.K. economy to 33 other countries, including its European neighbors, the U.S., Canada and Japan.

Brexit has reduced Britain’s gross domestic product (GDP), a broad measure of economic output, by 6% to 8%, investment by 12% to 13%, and productivity by 3% to 4%, the researchers concluded.

Britain’s carmakers were early and outspoken opponents of Brexit, arguing that increased red tape surrounding shipments of parts and finished vehicles would damage an industry built on a network of interlinked factories in multiple European countries.

Those concerns reduced investment in the U.K. auto industry because international carmakers were less likely to see Britain as an attractive way into the European market. As a result, the industry is hoping that international trade deals will help boost demand for its products.

“We have been able to move with the times, so to speak, but undoubtedly it’s putting us at more cost into the industry, more pressure,” Hawes said.

Brexit supporters trumpeted the freedom to negotiate its own trade agreements as one of the primary benefits of leaving the EU, and Britain has since signed dozens of deals with countries ranging from Australia to India to the United States.

But EU countries still account for 41% of Britain’s exports and half its imports, according to the latest government figures.

During more than 50 years as a member of the EU and its predecessors, many British businesses also came to rely on Europe as a source of cheap labor, especially after the bloc’s eastward expansion in 2004.

That pipeline dried up after Brexit ended the free movement of labor, one of the bloc’s founding principles.

The owners of Britain’s curry restaurants, an integral part of communities from Aberdeen in Scotland to Aberystwyth in Wales, have been especially hard hit by the loss of Eastern European workers who went home rather than deal with burdensome new visa requirements. And they’re furious because the industry backed Brexit after assurances it would lead to more visas for South Asian cooks, something that hasn’t happened.

“We feel betrayed,” said Oli Khan, president of the Bangladesh Caterers Association UK, who serves up tandoori lamb chops, vegetable biryani and chili paneer at his restaurant in Stevenage, north of London.

In an effort to mitigate some of the problems caused by Brexit, Prime Minister Keir Starmer has begun talks with the EU about rebuilding a closer relationship as he seeks to energize the country’s stagnant economy.

Starmer’s move comes as a survey by the Ipsos polling firm, the Policy Institute at King’s College London and the think tank UK in a Changing Europe suggests that frustration with Brexit is growing.

The survey of 2,245 Britons aged 18 and older carried out in May found that 48% said Brexit was going worse than they expected, up from 28% in March 2021. Some 9% said it was going better than expected and about one in three said it was going as expected.

But Boyd said the most important survey is still the one that took place on June 23, 2016, when 51.9% of those who cast ballots – or 17.4 million people – voted to leave the EU.

He continues to believe that Britain has a brighter future outside the EU.

Brexit hasn’t delivered on its promise because politicians, large corporations and other entrenched interests worked to thwart the will of the people, Boyd said. This resulted in a Brexit deal that kept Britain too closely tied to the EU and unable to realize its potential as an entrepreneurial nation filled with creative, hardworking people, he said.

And there’s no going back, he said.

“Imagine if we were to rejoin … today. The conditions upon which we would be allowed back in would be akin to us re-boarding the Titanic on the condition that we surrender our life vests first,” he said. “Need I say any more?”

The U.K. aims to double its trade volume with Türkiye in the coming years, a top British official said recently, stressing the growing cooperation in fields such as defense, but also the potential in other sectors.

“There is a trade volume of 28 billion pounds ($37.1 billion) every year between Türkiye and the United Kingdom, and we want to double this trade volume in the coming years,” said U.K. Minister of State for Trade Chris Bryant.

Speaking to Anadolu Agency (AA), Bryant said Europe could be thought of like the two ends of a book, noting that Türkiye and the U.K. are located at opposite ends of Europe and are highly important to each other as fellow NATO members.

Saying he believes there are many commonalities between Türkiye and Britain, Bryant cited strong music and cinema traditions as he touched upon trade figures and cooperation.

Bryant’s remarks came following a visit to Ankara, where, with his Turkish counterparts, he discussed how to advance economic partnership, bilateral trade, and also modernization of the free trade agreement (FTA).

“Both countries have strong defense sectors, and we are working to cooperate more closely in these areas,” he further said.

Moreover, he mentioned his visit to Ukraine earlier this year, where he said one of the bridges that had been destroyed has now been rebuilt using British steel produced in Scotland and British engineering, but that the construction was carried out by Turkish contractors.

“This is a really good example of partnership,” he said.

“Especially in challenging regions of the world, we often see how closely U.K. and Turkish companies can work together in the construction sector. This is exactly what we want to see in the future as well,” he added.

Yet, Bryant pointed out that there are still many sectors where trade between Türkiye and the U.K. remains below potential.

He said the services sector is one of the main areas.

“Education, design, advertising and many other fields are areas where we can do much more business together. These are also the issues I am currently discussing with Trade Minister Ömer Bolat and Deputy Trade Minister Mustafa Tuzcu,” he maintained.

“In the next few weeks, I will also travel to Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan. There are significant opportunities there as well, and I know that Turkish companies are already active in these regions,” he furthered.

“As I have said before, Türkiye and the U.K. have created a unique partnership. When we work together, we can move things forward in ways that some countries cannot,” Bryant said.

“I am quite confident that by the end of the year we will reach a much more comprehensive and advanced free trade agreement,” he added.

Bryant noted that in the past, free trade agreements focused more on trade in goods such as food, agricultural products, and furniture, but today areas such as technology, the digital economy, services, education, advertising, design, and construction have become just as important as these sectors.

“We aim to create a free trade agreement that is suited to the needs of modern economies,” he said.

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