Economy
Iran’s economy could withstand US blockade in short-term: Analysts
A U.S. naval blockade of Iranian ports is likely to place pressure on Iran’s oil production in the coming weeks, but claims it will throw the country into economic free fall appear to be premature, analysts say.
After weeks of bombing and counter-strikes, focus has shifted to the standoff in the Strait of Hormuz, which ordinarily carries around a fifth of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG).
In response to Iran’s blockade of the strait since the start of the Middle East war, the U.S. imposed a counter-blockade of Iran’s ports, a push to force its leaders into a compromise in peace talks.
That bid, however, looks set to fail, at least in the short-term.
“If the blockade lasts for more than two or three months, it can cause more damage” to Iran, economic analyst and professor at Shahid Beheshti University in Tehran, Saeed Laylaz, told Agence France-Presse (AFP).
“If Iran suffers any damage, the damage to the countries in the southern Persian Gulf will definitely be greater,” he added.
There’s a limit on how long Iran can bide its time, however.
Arne Lohmann Rasmussen, chief analyst at Global Risk Management said Iran “was expected to run out of storage capacity within approximately one month, but it may already be forced to shut in part of its oil production within a couple of weeks.”
‘Collapsing financially’?
Trump said Tuesday that Iran was “collapsing financially” under the blockade imposed by the U.S. Navy on April 12, claiming that the country was “starving for cash.”
U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the blockade meant storage at Iran’s Kharg Island, the main export terminal through which most of the country’s crude is shipped, “will be full and the fragile Iranian oil wells will be shut in.”
Jamie Ingram, managing editor of Middle East Economic Survey (MEES), told AFP it was likely the timeline for Iran to hit its oil storage limits would be measured in “weeks rather than days.”
He added it was likely that “Iran will slightly reduce production before getting to the stage where storage constraints start to bite.”
According to an analysis by oil expert Homayoun Falakshahi shared by energy intelligence firm Kpler, Iran’s crude production has already slowed since the start of the war.
Output fell by around 200,000 barrels per day (bpd) in March to 3.68 million bpd and is expected to drop a further 420,000 bpd in April to about 3.43 million bpd, reflecting “the broader impact of export disruptions and refining constraints linked to the ongoing conflict,” Falakshahi said.
But Laylaz in Tehran said beyond the psychological effect of the blockade, the “real material effect has been small so far.”
Ingram said Kharg Island “shouldn’t be a particular bottleneck,” for Iran.
“This is the final storage facility used before oil is exported and Iran can divert crude oil to other facilities rather than straight to Kharg,” he said.
‘Mutually assured disruption’
The MEES expert also said Iran’s dependency on oil exports via Hormuz had “deepened due to the damage caused by U.S. and Israeli strikes to other sections of the Iranian economy.”
“But Iran has also proven its ability to withstand huge oil-revenue declines during previous rounds of sanctions. I would not underestimate the regime’s resilience in this regard,” he added.
As the initial two-week truce between Iran and the U.S. was set to expire, Trump had said Tuesday he would maintain the cease-fire to allow more time for peace talks.
Iran said it welcomed the efforts by mediator Pakistan but made no other comment on Trump’s announcement, while vowing not to reopen Hormuz as long as the U.S. blockade remains in place.
“It will take a long time before such economic pain forces Iran to compromise,” Ingram said, explaining it is “more likely economic disruption … pushes China into exerting more pressure on Iran to negotiate.”
Ali Vaez, Iran project director at the International Crisis Group, said, “Iran’s economy was battered before the war, is contending with added strains caused during it, and now faces the combination of sanctions, seizures and potential strikes.”
“Iran’s leadership has previously shown a high threshold for pain, even if the pressure on ordinary Iranians increases. It also likely calculates that its own efforts to subdue traffic through Hormuz act as a sort of mutually assured disruption,” he added.
The chair of the Türkiye-Europe Business Councils of Foreign Economic Relations Board (DEIK) criticized remarks by European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, linking Türkiye with Russia and China, saying the country should be seen not as a threat but as a strategic European partner and future EU member.
In a written statement on Wednesday, Mehmet Ali Yalçındağ, the coordinating chairperson of the Türkiye-Europe Business Councils, which represents dozens of business councils engaging with European nations, said that the founding spirit of the European Union was based on the courage to view differences not as threats but as a source of collective wisdom and shared prosperity.
“Its role within the NATO alliance, deep integration through the customs union, and strong interdependence in energy, migration, and security make Türkiye not a ‘threat,’ but a strategic European partner and a future member,” he said.
He said the core idea behind the EU’s creation was to establish lasting peace through economic integration, build bridges and become a global actor through cooperation.
“In this context, placing Türkiye, an EU candidate country, a NATO ally, and a European nation, within the stated geopolitical category reflects an approach that is detached from reality,” he said.
Yalçındağ underlined that Türkiye is “an integral part of Europe’s economic, security and societal fabric.”
His remarks came after the EU chief’s remarks at an event earlier this week. Von der Leyen mentioned her support for EU enlargement but said: “We must succeed in completing the European continent so that it is not influenced by Russia, Türkiye or China.”
This drew criticism from Turkish officials who said the characterization did not reflect the country’s status as a key partner and NATO ally.
Türkiye, a long-time candidate for EU membership, has strong trade ties with the bloc, with the bilateral trade volume exceeding $200 billion a year. Türkiye and the EU base their commercial ties largely on a 30-year-old customs union trade agreement, whose overhaul has long been stalled but which Ankara earlier argued would be a win-win for both sides.
Turkish officials and businesses have long argued that the current agreement is outdated and no longer reflects global trade realities or the depth of today’s economic relationship.
Moreover, Yalçındağ added that the language used and the categorical classifications made in this regard appear to be driven more by tactical considerations than by geopolitical realities, warning that such an approach could weaken Europe’s strategic capacity in the long-term.
He said that said the DEIK, within the framework of its private-sector initiative supporting Türkiye’s EU membership, has emphasized that the EU must become a stronger and more autonomous actor in energy, supply chains and security, and that this objective can be achieved together with Türkiye.
He also said debates in Europe over decision-making mechanisms, especially the constraints created by unanimity, highlight the need for a more agile and responsive union.
According to Yalçındağ, a transition to qualified majority voting and differentiated integration models is a natural outcome of this search, but their implementation still requires unanimity, making the reservations of some member states decisive.
“In this context, it would be beneficial to assess Türkiye not through the lens of domestic European politics, but from the perspective of Europe’s global interests in the 21st century,” he said.
He added that addressing EU-Türkiye relations through the broader framework of the future of Western democracies, economic integration, rapid transformations in the age of artificial intelligence, security cooperation and global competition would offer a more rational and forward-looking approach.
Türkiye one of EU’s largest trading partners
Yalçındağ also pointed to what he described as more balanced and realistic views within the EU regarding Türkiye’s position.
He recalled that European Parliament rapporteur on Türkiye Nacho Sanchez Amor described von der Leyen’s remarks as “a geopolitically flawed analysis,” highlighting what he called a contradiction with recent messages calling for stronger cooperation with Türkiye in security and defense.
He also referred to remarks by European Commissioner for Enlargement Marta Kos, who told the European Parliament that Europe needs Türkiye in light of shifting geopolitical dynamics.
According to Yalçındağ, Kos emphasized that Türkiye is not only a candidate country but also a strategic partner, citing its role as one of the EU’s largest trading partners, its key position on trade routes between Europe and Asia, and its importance for Black Sea security and in the context of Ukraine.
He further said discussions during this year’s Munich Security Conference underlined Türkiye’s role on NATO’s southern flank, its capacity to manage regional crises and its strategic importance for Europe’s security architecture.
“This year’s conference marked one of the clearest articulations yet of the idea that Europe cannot move forward without Türkiye,” he said.
Yalçındağ also noted that Türkiye will host COP31 in November, describing it as a major international conference on the global climate crisis.
He said there are significant opportunities for cooperation between Türkiye and the EU on alignment targets, climate policies and the development of joint solutions to global challenges.
“Rather than defining Türkiye through limiting geopolitical categories, positioning it as a strategic partner that will help shape Europe’s common future represents a more realistic and constructive approach,” he said.
He added that by refraining from labeling an EU candidate country, a NATO ally and a European nation as a “threat,” the European Commission could better advance its goal of building a stronger and more sovereign Europe in the global order.
A regional incentive program, coordinated by the Industry and Technology Ministry, is expected to contribute to a number of sectors across Türkiye’s Mediterranean region, from defense to tourism, according to a report on Thursday.
Under the “Local Development Initiative Incentive Program,” investments in many fields, such as the establishment of a gold refinery and the production of components for the defense industry, as well as aviation and space-related sectors, in provinces across the Mediterranean region will be supported, a report by Anadolu Agency (AA) said.
The Local Development Initiative Incentive Program has been designed to be goal-oriented, selective and aligned with investors’ expectations.
Within the framework of the program coordinated by the ministry, support will be provided to utilize the geographical potential and idle resources of eight cities in the Mediterranean region, develop sectors not currently present in the region but with high success potential, and increase local employment.
The program will offer various incentives for investments in designated areas, depending on their size, ranging from tax reductions and insurance premium support to interest or profit-share contributions, land allocation for investment, and income tax exemptions.
The program foresees up to TL 301 million (around $6.7 million) in cash support for each investment, along with tax reductions of up to 50% of the investment value. Accordingly, within this scope, investment support is set to be provided to various sectors across the Mediterranean region.
Sports, health tourism
As part of the support program aimed at increasing industrial and production capacity, incentives in Adana will be directed toward the production of starch-based chemical derivatives and high-value-added products, aquaculture production and processing facilities, value-added production from agricultural products and waste, and the production of cleaning chemicals.
In Antalya, known as a “tourism paradise,” support will focus on the production of value-added products from medicinal and aromatic plants, high-tech products used in greenhouse and vertical farming, investments in iconic architecture and cultural industries, as well as projects related to sports and health tourism.
In Burdur, support will be provided for value-added production from wood and forest products, integrated breeding of high-genetic-quality cattle, the utilization of marble waste, and industrial dairy production.
In Hatay, referred to as the “City of Civilizations,” support will aim to boost sectors such as footwear and furniture sub-industries, advanced metal production, and seafood processing.
Gold refinery in Kahramanmaraş, iron and steel in Osmaniye
In Isparta, incentives will support the production of cosmetics and food supplements derived from rose and other medicinal aromatic plant extracts, mushroom compost and integrated mushroom processing facilities, value-added production from fruits and their waste, and investments in smart agriculture technologies.
In Kahramanmaraş, priority will be given to the establishment of a gold refinery, integrated aquaculture production and processing facilities, manufacturing for the aviation and space industry, as well as technical textiles and functional fabric production.
In Mersin, incentives will promote value-added production from legumes, metal and structural component manufacturing for the defense industry, the utilization of agricultural waste, and the production of modern and smart greenhouse systems.
In Osmaniye, support will primarily focus on the establishment of integrated greenhouse facilities, steel-based value-added production, recycling facilities for the iron and steel sector, and value-added production from agricultural products and waste.
The aim of these supports is to accelerate regional development, increase employment, and encourage high-value-added production across eight provinces in the Mediterranean region.
Business activity in the eurozone shrank in April for the first time in 16 months, as the war in the Middle East pushed energy prices up and disrupted global supply chains, a closely watched industry survey showed Thursday.
The Flash Eurozone purchasing managers’ index (PMI) published by S&P Global, an important gauge of the overall health of the economy, registered a figure of 48.6 this month, down from 50.7 in March.
A reading above 50 indicates growth, while a figure below 50 shows contraction.
“The eurozone is facing deepening economic woes from the war in the Middle East, presenting a major headache for policymakers,” said S&P chief business economist Chris Williamson.
“The conflict has pushed the economy into decline in April, while driving inflation sharply higher.”
The decline in output was driven by the service sector, which recorded the steepest pace of decline in more than five years.
Manufacturing production instead continued to rise, expanding at the fastest rate since August.
But this was partially down to customers placing extra orders to build stocks and secure purchases ahead of possible future price rises and supply shortages, the survey said.
The fall in business activity was broad-based across the eurozone, with both Germany and France, the 20-country single currency area’s two biggest economies, posting contractions.
“In this environment, the ECB once again has the unenviable task of deciding whether to raise interest rates in the face of the worrying inflation picture, or whether this price spike will prove temporary and its focus should instead be on the need to prevent the economy sliding into a deeper downturn,” said Williamson.
Analysts have raised their bets on the Frankfurt-based European Central Bank (ECB) hiking interest rates as soon as this month to keep inflation in check.
German flag carrier Lufthansa Group announced on Tuesday it would cancel around 20,000 short-haul flights from its summer schedule through October, as it seeks to curb fuel costs that have surged since the outbreak of the Iran war.
This equates to a savings of around 40,000 tons of kerosene, the price of which has doubled since the start of the conflict, Lufthansa said.
The schedule adjustments reduce the number of “unprofitable short-haul flights” across the Lufthansa Group network, the statement said.
The “planned consolidation of the European network” is being implemented across Lufthansa Group’s six hubs.
The airline aims to optimize its service over the summer through Frankfurt, Munich, Zurich, Vienna, Brussels and Rome, ensuring passengers continue to have access to its global route network.
Lufthansa said that the first 120 daily flight cancellations, effective until the end of May, were implemented on Monday. The passengers concerned have been notified, the airline said.
Flights from Frankfurt to Bydgoszcz and Rzeszow in Poland, as well as Stavanger in Norway, have been temporarily suspended.
Ten routes within the group are to be rerouted via other airports – those affected include Heringsdorf, Cork (Ireland), Gdansk (Poland), Ljubljana (Slovenia), Rijeka (Croatia), Sibiu (Romania), Stuttgart, Trondheim (Norway), Tivat (Montenegro) and Wroclaw (Poland).
In light of the reduced capacity, Lufthansa is also revising its medium-term route planning. Updated flight schedules from June onward are expected to be published in late April and will include further adjustments to the short-haul offering for the summer season.
The group added that its jet fuel supply is secured for the coming weeks and that it is using a combination of physical procurement and price hedging measures to manage the impact of higher fuel costs.
Türkiye’s inflation will be impacted by the recent developments but the downward trend will not change, Treasury and Finance Minister Mehmet Şimşek said on Wednesday.
“There will be no change in the downward trend of inflation; reducing inflation and maintaining that trend is a significant achievement for Türkiye,” Şimşek told an event in Istanbul.
The Iran war sent energy prices soaring, posing a challenge for import-heavy economies like Türkiye, where inflation still eased to 30.87% last month. On Tuesday, U.S. President Donald Trump extended the war cease-fire indefinitely.
Şimşek dismissed calls to ease the fight against inflation, arguing that durable and high growth can only be achieved through low inflation.
“This is a very myopic approach,” he said. “The path to permanent and high growth is through the process of low inflation. If inflation falls, growth will multiply.”
Şimşek stressed what he described as progress made under the government’s economic program, implemented since mid-2023.
Inflation had peaked at 85% in October 2022 before easing to 64% by year-end and standing at around 65% in 2023.
Disinflation began in 2024, bringing it down to 44%, followed by a further decline to 31% last year, he noted.
“It is necessary to ask and reflect on the question: Where would inflation have headed if this program did not exist?”
Şimşek also said the current account deficit was expected to widen further this year due to the oil price shock, but that this was temporary.
Global uncertainty poses risks
Şimşek warned that the global economy is facing an increasingly complex environment marked by geopolitical tensions, fragmented trade and rising debt levels.
In the short-term, he pointed to commodity price shocks driven by the Iran war. Over the longer term, he said the world is entering a “new normal” characterized by persistent geopolitical risks and disruptions in global trade.
“Global trade fragmentation could lead to much more destructive outcomes,” he said, also cautioning that high global debt levels combined with elevated interest rates could pose systemic risks.
He added that weak external demand may weigh on Türkiye’s outlook in 2026, noting that demand dynamics are a more decisive factor than exchange rate movements.
“External demand elasticity is 11 times stronger than exchange rate elasticity. The primary determinant is demand, and unfortunately, as of now, the projections for demand in 2026 are not very positive,” said Şimşek.
Opportunities in defense
Şimşek still said Türkiye sees opportunities in shifting economic dynamics, particularly in the defense sector and supply chain reconfiguration.
He highlighted the rapid expansion of global defense spending, which he said could reach $6.6 trillion, creating significant opportunities for Türkiye’s well-developed defense industry.
“The world is not the old world anymore. A major trend is emerging before us: global defense industry expenditures. Some countries in Europe are spending 5% of their national income on the defense industry. Türkiye sees a major window of opportunity here,” said Şimşek.
“Türkiye has a strong infrastructure in defense industries, and we see this as a major opportunity,” he added.
Türkiye achieved a record of more than $10 billion in defense exports last year and secured $18 billion in new orders.
“Do not underestimate this,” said Şimşek. “The profit margins of $18 billion-$20 billion in defense industry exports are so high that they are equivalent to $50 billion-$60 billion of traditional exports.
“Türkiye is on the threshold of a new industrial revolution, a period where the defense industry serves as a lever.”
Consumer sentiment in Türkiye remained subdued but showed a slight improvement in April, official data from the country’s statistical office showed on Wednesday.
The consumer confidence index edged up to 85.5 from 85.0 in March, Turkish Statistical Institute (TurkStat) said, remaining below the 100 mark that separates optimistic and pessimistic outlook.
Expectations for households’ financial situation over the next 12 months improved, with the corresponding index rising to 87.5 from 85.6, the data revealed.
By contrast, views on the general economic outlook weakened, with that sub-index falling to 78.3 from 79.1.
The survey also showed a more positive assessment of spending on durable goods, with the relevant index increasing to 104.4 from 102.7.
Minister Tekin: No risk will be ignored
Erdoğan warns wars are weakening Europe, urges shift to diplomacy
23 April special session in the Turkish Grand National Assembly… Kurtulmuş: Parliament is the place to defend what is for the good of the nation
Minister Tekin: No risk will be ignored
Erdoğan warns wars are weakening Europe, urges shift to diplomacy
23 April special session in the Turkish Grand National Assembly… Kurtulmuş: Parliament is the place to defend what is for the good of the nation
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