The Embassy of India in Ankara and the Consulate General of India in Istanbul announced Monday that they had convened the first meeting to launch the India-Türkiye Business Association.

According to an official statement, the meeting brought together Indian and Turkish investors with established business interests in both countries.

The statement said the association would be the first business-led initiative of its kind aimed at building a dedicated community to promote trade and investment between India and Türkiye.

Participants discussed drafting the association’s charter and defining its vision, while also exploring ways to create more structured engagement between the two business communities.

The association is expected to operate as a business chamber and will be formally launched in the coming months, the statement said.

India’s Ambassador to Türkiye Muktesh Pardeshi said such organizations can help businesses in both countries build stronger ties and networks, allowing them to navigate the commercial environment more efficiently and effectively.

He emphasized that the time had come for an active, business-led body that could advocate for greater trade and investment between India and Türkiye.

Bilateral trade between the two countries currently stands at around $10 billion a year, after reaching a peak of $13.8 billion in 2023.

The statement added that both sides share the goal of raising total trade to $20 billion.

India has identified Türkiye as one of its top 25 export markets, while Türkiye has included India among the 18 countries in its targeted distant countries strategy.

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China’s exports gained speed in May, buoyed by strong demand ⁠for chips, autos and other high-tech goods fuelling the global artificial intelligence boom, giving policymakers some relief as energy price shocks from the Iran conflict weigh on broader demand.

A surge in ​global AI investment has helped the world’s top manufacturer offset the ​export hit ⁠many had expected from the Middle East turmoil. But signs are emerging that stockpiling linked to higher energy costs is fading, with prices rising and overseas buyers starting to run down inventories as they wait for a cease-fire.

Exports expanded 19.4% from a year earlier in U.S. dollar value terms, customs data showed on Tuesday, outpacing the 14.1% gain in April and a 15% rise tipped by economists.

Imports notched another strong month, climbing 27.4% versus a rise of 25.3% a month prior. Economists had forecast growth of 25%.

“Chip price increases continue to support exports, with memory prices rising 20% month-on-month, pushing integrated circuit export growth to 111% for the month,” said Xing Zhaopeng, ANZ’s senior China strategist.

China’s ⁠exports ⁠of automated data processing equipment soared 66.1% in value terms year-over-year, high-tech products rose 50.9%, and shipments of cars jumped 39%, the data showed.

“Looking ahead, the AI story is far from over – chips are rewriting China’s trade landscape,” Xing added.

The AI boom has driven strong demand for semiconductors powering data centers and advanced electronics, playing to China’s manufacturing strengths. But early signs suggest that momentum may be starting to fade.

Separate factory activity data for May showed a steep drop in new export orders from April’s two-year peak, when warehouse managers reported “booming” business amid a scramble by ⁠foreign factories to lock in supplies.

Strong exports powered China’s $20 trillion economy past forecasts in the first quarter, but signs of cooling momentum have reinforced concerns that fragile domestic demand leaves it exposed to weaker global conditions and increases the likelihood of ​further policy support.

Beijing is under growing international pressure to strengthen domestic consumption, as critics warn its heavy reliance ​on imported inputs and re-exports is distorting trade and squeezing other emerging economies out of higher-value manufacturing.

The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) amplified that concern last week, noting in ⁠a report ‌that nearly 60% ‌of Chinese firms’ “market share gains can be explained by subsidies received.”

A new ⁠U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) paper found that China’s trade surplus – measured ‌against global gross domestic product (GDP) – has topped 1%, well above the peaks Japan and Germany hit in the late 20th century, and shows ​little sign of narrowing. That suggests ⁠persistent Chinese industrial overcapacity will reshape global manufacturing for years.

A closely watched ⁠meeting last month between U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping helped cool tensions but produced ⁠no meaningful breakthroughs, whether ​on tariff disputes or cooperation over ending the Iran conflict.

China’s trade surplus came in at $105.43 billion in May, up from $84.8 billion a month prior and from a forecast of $92.1 billion.

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Türkiye and Canada have agreed to launch exploratory discussions toward a free trade agreement (FTA), according to a joint statement from the countries’ trade ministries on Tuesday.

Turkish and Canadian trade ministers, Ömer Bolat and Maninder Sidhu, met to advance the strong and growing economic partnership between the two countries, the statement said.

“Building on the recent call between President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and Prime Minister Mark Carney, the ministers reaffirmed their shared commitment to deepening the Türkiye-Canada trade and investment relationship,” it noted.

“To that end, they agreed to launch exploratory discussions toward a free trade agreement, a step that reflects the ambition of both countries to unlock the full potential of commercial partnership,” it added.

According to the statement, the ministers welcomed the recent expansion of the Air Transport Agreement, which strengthens connectivity between the two countries and opens new opportunities for travelers, businesses, and exporters.

“Enhanced air links will support stronger commercial ties and bring our economies closer together,” it noted.

Moreover, the statement said that the minister recognized the deep people-to-people ties that anchor the relationship between the two nations.

Additionally, it said that they have “identified energy as a pioneering area for expanded cooperation.”

“They have agreed to explore opportunities in renewable energy as both countries advance their clean energy transitions, as well as in nuclear energy, including the potential of Canadian CANDU technology to support Türkiye’s diversification goals.”

The statement also underscored that ministers welcomed “the prospect of closer collaboration in aerospace.” It also suggested that the ministers agreed to exchange visits and to look forward to “continued close engagement as Türkiye and Canada work together to expand trade, attract investment and deliver lasting benefits for the people of both countries.”

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Italy’s largest lender, Intesa Sanpaolo, launched a mega 31-billion-euro ($35 billion) bid on Monday for rival Monte dei Paschi di Siena (MPS), the world’s oldest bank, kicking off a new round of consolidation in the country’s banking sector.

Intesa said its proposal would create the second-largest bank in the eurozone by market value, with a network of 3,000 branches.

“The financial and banking sector, both at the Italian and European level, requires a consolidation process that creates large-scale projects capable of supporting the necessary investments,” Intesa said.

Larger banking groups can “compete with new players and maintain adequate levels of profitability in an increasingly integrated market,” it added.

A successful transaction, which would rank among the country’s biggest banking deals ever, would place Intesa behind Spain’s Santander in terms of market value, surpassing France’s BNP Paribas and domestic rival UniCredit, which is currently striving to grow its German business by buying Commerzbank.

Intesa CEO Carlo Messina said the offer, although not previously agreed, was friendly towards the MPS investors, and he was confident of securing their support by the time the bid concludes ​in December.

Speaking in a call, he said that he was on good terms with the two principal investors, the Delfin holding and businessman Francesco Gaetano Caltagirone, and was offering a cash component precisely to ​win them over.

“We will reach the minimum (targeted threshold of 66.67%),” he told an analyst call on Monday. “We have very good relations with Delfin ⁠and Caltagirone.”

Intesa said its offer entailed a premium of 12.5% versus the closing share price of MPS on Friday, which gave MPS a market value of 27.4 billion euros.

Shares in MPS jumped more ​than 10% on Monday while those in Intesa lost 4%.

Intesa’s bid is also a direct challenge to Banco BPM, which on Sunday said it would invite MPS to discuss a potential “merger of equals” to create Italy’s second-biggest bank.

BPM said the combined company would be worth “more than EUR50 billion” ($58 billion) and constitute “a new national champion.”

MPS recently formed the country’s third-biggest banking group after buying Mediobanca last year.

BPM’s proposal is ‘a love letter’

MPS, bailed out by the state in 2017 and reprivatised in 2023-2024, has been a focus of domestic ​bank mergers since becoming the main investor in insurer Generali last year, a coveted asset in Italian finance.

Intesa’s move sidelines Banco BPM, which has long been the leading candidate to merge with MPS. Amid mounting expectations of an Intesa bid, Banco BPM, Italy’s fourth-largest bank, said on Sunday it wanted to open talks with MPS about a potential merger.

Messina quipped that the BPM approach to MPS was a “love letter” as ​opposed to his concrete offer, adding the bid had not been prompted by BPM’s approach but rather the other way round.

Under Italian takeover rules, Intesa’s formal bid now prevents MPS ​from agreeing on the terms of a deal with BPM without prior shareholder approval.

MPS has a scheduled board meeting later on Monday, and the bank said it will not comment on Intesa or BPM until ‌its board ⁠discusses the matter at the meeting.

Unipol deal

Intesa secured a fifth of the Italian banking market when it bought mid-sized UBI back in 2020, leapfrogging UniCredit to become Italy’s largest bank.

Citing antitrust limits, Intesa has kept out of a wave of mergers and acquisitions in Italy’s banking sector that began in November 2024, with Messina previously describing it as “the Wild West.”

To address competition issues, Intesa said on Monday it had struck a deal with insurer Unipol to sell a banking business comprising 635 MPS branches – roughly half the total – and MPS’ central offices in ​Siena, if its bid is successful.

Unipol is the ​main investor in smaller bank BPER ⁠Banca and an Intesa ally. It had played a similar role in the UBI deal, buying branches to help Intesa gain antitrust approval while supporting BPER’s expansion.

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National flag carrier Turkish Airlines (THY) plans to expand its nonstop long-haul network by deploying ultra-long-range aircraft from late 2027, enabling direct flights to destinations in Australia and South America, its chair said on Monday.

THY has orders in place for nearly 420 aircraft, including Airbus and Boeing jets, with negotiations continuing for an additional 100 Boeing planes.

“With the addition of ultra-long-range aircraft to the fleet from the end of 2027 onward, we will gain the ability to operate direct flights to Australia and certain destinations in South America,” Chair of the Board Murat Şeker told Anadolu Agency (AA).

Şeker took the helm of the carrier this April after serving as its chief financial officer since 2016.

Under its 2033 strategy, Turkish Airlines, which already serves more countries than almost any other carrier in the world, plans a major fleet replacement and expansion to around 800 aircraft.

No change in ‘big picture’

Şeker was part of the team that created the strategy and said Monday he does not foresee any significant change in the “big picture.”

“In other words, with the Airbus order placed in 2023 and the Boeing order placed in September of last year, Turkish Airlines has ordered close to 420 aircraft in total,” he said.

Şeker noted that negotiations are still ongoing for an order of 100 Boeing aircraft. The carrier’s current fleet includes 485 planes.

“There is no significant change in our growth targets,” Şeker noted, but added that there could be some change in the composition.

“We are aware of what we are capable of doing,” he noted. “We have a hub like Istanbul Airport. And we have a country like Türkiye, which is a leading force in tourism and has ranked among the world’s top five most-visited countries for many years.”

The airline also expects to receive specially configured Airbus A350-1000 aircraft capable of operating flights of up to 17 hours without stopovers.

The jets will allow THY to operate nonstop services from Istanbul to cities such as Sydney and Melbourne, while also improving access to destinations including Buenos Aires, Santiago and Lima, which currently require intermediate stops.

“With specially designed versions of the Airbus A350, we will have the opportunity to connect Istanbul to longer-range routes,” Şeker said.

Fuel supply secure despite higher costs

Global airlines ‌are grappling with higher fuel costs driven by the U.S. and Israel’s war with Iran, which has choked jet fuel supplies and disrupted key air corridors, forcing costly detours.

But Şeker said THY has not faced fuel supply challenges.

Türkiye benefits from domestic jet fuel production capacity through refineries operated by Tüpraş and SOCAR, while its geographic position provides access to additional supplies from Iraq, North Africa and other regions.

Şeker said THY has been less affected than some Asian markets, where jet fuel prices temporarily rose to as much as $2,000 per ton.

In Türkiye, prices peaked at around $1,600-$1,800 per ton and currently stand at approximately $1,200-$1,300 per ton, Şeker said.

Gulf disruption created new opportunities

The Iran conflict has upended traffic ‌flows through ⁠Middle Eastern hubs such as Dubai, Doha and Abu Dhabi, creating acute challenges for Gulf carriers including Emirates, Qatar Airways and Etihad.

Şeker said disruptions provided THY with an opportunity to attract new passengers from South Asia, the Far East, the Maldives, Seychelles and North America.

During a period when some Gulf airlines were unable to operate normally, Turkish Airlines carried a portion of their passengers, introducing many travelers to the carrier for the first time, he noted.

But, Şeker said “only time will tell whether this turns into a real and lasting opportunity in the long term.”

He noted that major Gulf carriers, including Qatar Airways, Emirates and Etihad, have largely restored their pre-crisis capacity levels.

“At the moment, we are not engaged in very aggressive price competition in terms of ticket prices,” he added.

Limited growth expected in 2026

Şeker described 2026 as a challenging year due to fuel-related cost pressures and geopolitical uncertainties. But, he said they believe the war will not continue through the end of the summer.

THY had budgeted for capacity growth of 7%-8% this year but now expects expansion of only 1%-2%.

Despite the headwinds, Şeker said the airline’s extensive route network provides flexibility to manage disruptions.

“We hope to complete this year with limited losses and moderate growth, and then continue Turkish Airlines’ growth trajectory from where we left off,” he said.

THY’s passenger count rose 3.9% year-over-year in the January-June period of this year to 42.2 million. Its occupancy rate rose by 0.6% to 81.4%.

Focus on higher-value businesses

Şeker said THY’s broader strategy remains intact but will increasingly focus on higher-value businesses.

He highlighted initiatives including the Turkish Holidays travel package platform, the airline’s loyalty program, payment systems venture TKPAY and cargo logistics company Widect, which provides door-to-door delivery services.

“In today’s intensely competitive environment, it is becoming difficult for airlines to grow by doing the same things. More aircraft, more passengers, more revenue; this business becomes less profitable,” said Şeker.

“That is why we will have a stronger presence in areas with higher added value.”

He added that THY’s purchase of stake in Spanish carrier Air Europa could also be viewed within this strategic framework.

Under a deal agreed in August, Turkish Airlines is to invest about 300 million euros ($346 million) in convertible debt, which will be exchanged for a stake in the Spanish carrier expected to be in the range of 25% to 27%.

Türkiye’s export market conditions improved modestly in May, supported by signs of recovery in the Middle East despite continued weakness across several key European economies, a survey showed on Monday.

The Türkiye Export Climate Index, compiled by the Istanbul Chamber of Industry (ISO) and S&P Global to measure business conditions in the main export destinations of Turkish manufacturers, rose to 50.3 in May from 50.2 in April.

The reading returned to its March level and marked the 29th consecutive month of improvement in export market conditions. A figure above 50 indicates strengthening demand conditions, while a reading below that threshold signals deterioration.

Weakness in Europe

However, several major European markets continued to show signs of weakness.

Output declined further in Germany and France, the two largest economies in the eurozone, while France recorded its sharpest contraction since January 2024.

Economic activity in the United Kingdom also returned to decline in May.

Germany, France and the U.K. together account for roughly 19% of Türkiye’s manufacturing exports.

Romania and Russia also recorded contractions, while Italy and Spain posted only marginal growth.

In the United States, economic activity continued to expand for a 40th consecutive month, although growth eased compared with April.

Andrew Harker, economics director at S&P Global Market Intelligence, said generally stable demand conditions in export markets overshadowed the differing trends emerging in key regional markets.

Harker said signs of weakness became more evident in Europe, noting that the region currently presents a weak growth outlook, as many economies are struggling with rapid price increases.

Signs of recovery in Middle East

According to the survey, the Middle East showed stronger momentum following disruptions caused by the Iran war that erupted in late February.

Non-oil business activity in the United Arab Emirates (UAE) expanded at its fastest pace in three months, while growth accelerated in Saudi Arabia.

Declines in output across Egypt, Kuwait, Lebanon and Qatar were less pronounced than in the previous survey period.

S&P Global’s Harker said Middle Eastern economies showed a more positive picture and signs of recovery following the Iran war.

He said geopolitical challenges are likely to continue limiting international demand, at least in the near term.

Among all economies covered by the Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data, Singapore recorded the strongest increase in output in May, closely followed by India.

Kenya registered the sharpest decline in economic activity, largely due to rising costs, although the country accounts for only a small share of Türkiye’s manufacturing exports.

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