The European Central Bank (ECB) kept interest rates unchanged as expected on Thursday, but opened the door to another increase in September, as ⁠renewed conflict in the Middle East has largely erased any hope of a quick moderation in energy costs.

The ECB raised rates in June and hinted at more to come, but a string of benign data since then – on prices, wages, ​economic activity and inflation expectations – had made a quick follow-up step less urgent.

The return of oil ​prices ⁠to $100 per barrel as the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran disrupts shipping did stir talk of policy tightening at this month’s policy meeting, ECB President Christine Lagarde said, supporting market bets that a rate hike in September is likely.

“There were some governors who asked themselves whether we should not consider a hike; in other words, raising the three interest rates,” Lagarde told a news conference. The Governing Council’s decision to keep the benchmark deposit rate unchanged at 2.25% was nevertheless unanimous, she said.

The ECB had flagged a hold in the weeks leading up to Thursday’s meeting on the premise that energy prices were falling quickly and moving closer to the mildest of three scenarios it set out in March.

But the recent reversal, coupled with a surge in natural gas prices to more than three-year highs, has also reset energy price expectations.

“As we stand now today, (the milder scenario) looks quite unlikely, let’s face it,” Lagarde said. “The full effects of the energy shock have ⁠yet ⁠to play out.”

Economists said that was consistent with a hike in September.

“Lagarde’s comments at the press conference clearly point to a September rate hike,” ING economist Carsten Brzeski said. “The European Central Bank has again turned more hawkish, suggesting that a September rate hike is almost a done deal.”

The U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) and the Bank of England (BoE), both of which make rate decisions next week, are also weighing the timing of possible hikes in months to come.

For the ECB, investors are betting on almost three more interest rate increases in the coming year, with a first move fully priced in by October and the second by next February. This pricing reflects energy prices more than economic fundamentals, however, and most economists polled by Reuters say the 21-country eurozone will need far ⁠less policy tightening to keep a lid on inflation, which could hover around 3% in the coming months. The ECB targets an inflation rate of 2%.

No second-round effects yet

The key reason the ECB was in no rush to act on Thursday was that long-feared second-round effects of the energy price spike have yet ​to materialize.

“We are not seeing a second-round effect,” Lagarde said.

Firms surveyed by the bank did not point to such impacts in their pricing ​or pay decisions and wage growth is continuing to slow, as the ECB has long forecast, Lagarde said: “None of those elements for the moment… are giving us second-round effects indications.”

One reason why such impacts may be slow to materialize is that ⁠the labor market ‌remains relatively soft – particularly in Germany, the bloc’s biggest economy – while surveys point to muted pay pressures. Consumers have dialled ⁠back their price expectations and services inflation actually slowed last month.

Trade tensions, high energy ‌costs and China’s expansion into some of Europe’s key export markets, meanwhile, suggest that the bloc’s industries will continue to struggle, putting downward pressure on labor demand.

Scorching summer weather ​in much of Europe this month is a potential ⁠risk, however, as Lagarde acknowledged. The heat may have damaged crops and could push up food ⁠prices, while low water levels on key rivers could create shipping bottlenecks.

Asked about persistent rumors that she may leave the ECB early, ⁠Lagarde said she was not ​about to depart but also did not say she would stay until her term expires in late 2027.

“You are not going to see the back of me before 2027,” the ECB president said. “When there are clouds on the horizon, the captain stays on the ship.”

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Two Chinese supertankers carrying a combined 4 million barrels of ⁠Saudi Arabian oil exited the Red Sea via the Bab ⁠el-Mandeb Strait on Thursday, shipping data showed, apparently escaping a blockade on shipments of Saudi oil by Yemen’s Houthi rebels even as other vessels came under attack.

The Red Sea blockade by the Iran-aligned Houthis ​is worsening global energy supply disruption, coming at the same time the key Strait of ​Hormuz ⁠has practically shut due to the resumption of fighting between the U.S. and Iran.

The Singaporean-flagged VLCC Xin Long Yang, which made a U-turn and paused in the middle of the Red Sea on Tuesday, resumed its journey southward late on Wednesday, LSEG shipping data showed. The Chinese-flagged VLCC Cosnew Lake followed and both tankers exited the Red Sea later on Thursday, the data showed.

The Xin Long Yang was heading to the port of Qinzhou in southern Guangxi province, while Cosnew Lake is expected to discharge its cargo at the port of Huizhou, in the southern Chinese province of Guangdong, the data showed.

Both vessels indicated through their automatic identification system transmitters that there were Chinese crew onboard, the data showed. The vessels are chartered by Unipec, the trading arm of Asia’s largest refiner Sinopec, and loaded crude at Saudi Arabia’s port of Yanbu ⁠earlier ⁠this week.

At least two other VLCCs chartered by Unipec and scheduled to enter the Red Sea and load Saudi crude at the Yanbu port later this month slowed their advance toward Bab el-Mandeb and were making small circles in the Gulf of Aden, LSEG data showed.

Hormuz transits

Earlier on Thursday, the Houthis announced they had carried out a military operation targeting two Saudi oil tankers they said violated the blockade.

Shipping data showed both tankers supply crude to Saudi power plants and local refineries. The Saudi Arabian news agency SPA later said the Saudi vessel Encelia was attacked in the Red Sea and ⁠was on fire, though the crew was safe.

Because of the Middle East conflict, shipping traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb declined and movement through the Strait of Hormuz remained subdued on Wednesday, data from LSEG and data analytics firm Kpler showed.

Twenty-seven vessels, including five oil tankers and a liquefied petroleum ​gas (LPG) carrier, crossed the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on Wednesday, LSEG data showed, down from 38 the previous day. Data from analytics ​firm Vortexa showed one VLCC exited Bab el-Mandeb with its transponder switched off on Wednesday.

Two VLCCs emerged from the Strait of Hormuz on Thursday, LSEG data showed. The New Giant, carrying 2 million barrels of Iraqi ⁠crude, was headed ‌for the ‌eastern Chinese port of Rizhao, while the Rotterdam Energy, loaded with 2 million barrels ⁠of Upper Zakum crude from the United Arab Emirates (UAE), appeared off Fujairah, according ‌to LSEG and Kpler data.

Three commodity vessels transited the Strait of Hormuz on Wednesday, down from four a day earlier and 18 the previous Wednesday, ​according to Kpler.

Two vessels entered the strait ⁠from the Gulf of Oman, including a tanker carrying dirty petroleum products that sailed through ⁠Iranian waters and a dry bulk carrier operating in dark mode, with its tracking signal switched off, Kpler data showed.

As ⁠of July 20, there ​were 253 laden tankers in the Gulf, including 102 oil tankers, 64 liquefied natural gas carriers and 66 liquefied petroleum gas carriers, according to LSEG data.

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Brent oil shot to more than $100 per barrel on Thursday, its highest level since May, extending a five-day rally after attacks on two Saudi ‌oil tankers in the Red Sea heightened concerns over global oil supply disruptions.

Houthi rebels in Yemen have widened the conflict by targeting vessels carrying Saudi oil in the Bab el-Mandeb strait, after declaring ​a naval blockade on Saudi shipments, raising the prospect of ​disruptions at another key oil transit chokepoint alongside the Strait ⁠of Hormuz.

At the same time, sharp drops for two of Wall Street’s most influential companies, Alphabet and Tesla, yanked the U.S. stock market lower.

The S&P 500 sank 1.3% and is heading toward its first back-to-back weekly loss since March. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 537 points, or 1%, as of 12:50 p.m. Eastern time, and the Nasdaq composite was 2.2% lower.

Stocks fell under the pressure of rising oil prices, which raise costs for businesses and erode their customers’ ability to spend. The price for a barrel of Brent crude oil, the international standard, jumped 7.1% to $100.74.

It earlier touched the highest price since May for the most actively traded Brent contract in the market. The cause: attacks on two Saudi oil tankers in the Red Sea. That threatens another avenue that oil companies use to move their crude from the Middle East to customers worldwide, along with the Strait of Hormuz.

Underscoring the importance of the sea route for the economy, President Donald Trump threatened “major military punishment” against the Houthi rebels, who are backed by Iran, if they keep attacking ships.

It was just a few weeks ago that Brent had dropped below $72 per barrel, roughly back to where it was before the United States and Israel attacked Iran to begin their war, on hopes that the Strait of Hormuz would fully reopen to oil tankers.

The jumps in oil prices are threatening to worsen inflation, just when it had begun to decelerate by more than economists expected. That in turn could push the Federal Reserve (Fed) and other central banks to raise interest rates, which would slow economies and undercut prices for stocks and other investments.

The European Central Bank (ECB) held its main interest rates steady at its meeting Thursday. But traders are banking on a nearly 38% chance the Fed will hike the federal funds rate at its meeting next week. That’s up from the nearly 12% probability seen a week ago, according to data from CME Group.

An increase by the Fed would be the first since 2023.

Higher oil prices pushed the yield of the 10-year Treasury up to 4.70% from 4.67% late Wednesday and from just 3.97% before the war with Iran began. That’s a significant increase, and it’s already brought long-term U.S. mortgage rates to their highest levels in nearly a year.

Gasoline prices tend to rise with oil prices, and a gallon of regular costs an average of $4.09 across the United States, according to AAA. That’s still below highs of roughly $4.56 in May, but it was at just $3.93 a month ago.

On Wall Street, stocks of companies with big fuel bills fell to sharp losses on worries about higher expenses.

American Airlines fell 8.4% even though it reported a much bigger profit for the spring than analysts expected, something that usually sends a stock’s price higher. It raised airfares, which helped it offset its higher fuel prices, during the latest quarter.

Southwest Airlines lost 4.4%, even though it also reported better profit and revenue than analysts expected. It wrung more profit out of each $1 of its revenue during the spring, even with higher fuel prices.

One of the heaviest weights on the U.S. stock market was Tesla, which tumbled 14% after Elon Musk’s electric-vehicle company reported a weaker profit for the latest quarter than analysts expected. Because it’s one of the largest stocks in the S&P 500 by market value, its stock has more influence on the index than nearly every other.

One of the few that’s larger is Alphabet, and its stock fell 6.7% even though the parent company of Google delivered stronger profit and revenue than analysts expected.

Investors seemed to focus instead on how much Alphabet said it’s set to spend on artificial intelligence investments. Alphabet raised its forecast for capital spending over the full year after its investments last quarter doubled to nearly $45 billion from a year earlier.

CEO Sundar Pichai said AI helped its cloud revenue growth accelerate to 82% last quarter, but unease nevertheless remains about whether all the money going into AI will pay off in terms of productivity and profits.

Such worries have been shaking the AI industry broadly in recent weeks, leading to big swings for the overall stock market.

In stock markets abroad, indexes fell sharply in Europe as oil prices jumped. France’s CAC 40 dropped 1.6% for one of the larger losses.

Indexes in Asia were stronger earlier in the day, and South Korea’s Kospi jumped 4.4%.

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Türkiye is expected to expand cooperation with the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) in trade, economic relations, the defense industry and energy after becoming a “dialogue partner” of the regional bloc.

According to information compiled by Anadolu Agency (AA), Türkiye was granted dialogue partner status at the 59th ASEAN Foreign Ministers’ Meeting in Manila, the capital of the Philippines.

The move, considered politically and diplomatically significant, is expected to mark a new chapter in Türkiye’s relations with the region, which has a population of nearly 700 million and an economy worth more than $4 trillion.

ASEAN comprises 11 member states: Indonesia, the Philippines, Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand, Vietnam, Brunei, Laos, Myanmar, Cambodia and Timor-Leste.

Türkiye’s exports to ASEAN member states increased 17.1% from $2.4 billion in 2021 to $2.8 billion in 2025. Exports to the bloc totaled $1.2 billion in the first five months of this year.

Imports from ASEAN countries rose 50.7% during the same period, increasing from $8.8 billion to $13.3 billion. Imports reached approximately $6 billion in the January-May period of this year.

As a result, Türkiye’s total trade volume with the region reached $16.1 billion in 2025.

Precious stones top exports

An analysis of Türkiye’s exports to ASEAN by product category showed that “precious or semi-precious stones, precious metals, pearls, imitation jewelry and coins” ranked first last year, with exports totaling $419.4 million.

The category was followed by “mineral fuels, mineral oils and products of their distillation” at $412.9 million, and “boilers, machinery, mechanical appliances and equipment” at $268 million.

Among ASEAN member states, Singapore was Türkiye’s largest export destination last year, with shipments totaling $709.5 million.

Singapore was followed by Malaysia and Indonesia, both of which were visited by President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan during his Asia tour last year.

During Erdoğan’s visits, the sides discussed cooperation in a wide range of areas, including energy and the defense industry.

Türkiye’s exports to Malaysia reached $629.2 million, while exports to Indonesia totaled $481.2 million in 2025. Türkiye’s direct investment in ASEAN member states also increased significantly, rising from $106.5 million in 2023 to $410.4 million in 2024.

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A groundbreaking lawsuit accusing Meta Platforms of using discriminatory AI tools to decide who would be laid off shines a spotlight on the steep obstacles workers face in challenging employers over the technology, especially in uncovering how it was deployed.

The case helps illustrate why a widely predicted wave of employment lawsuits over AI use has yet to arrive. Legal ⁠experts say workers often have little understanding of how AI systems are used ⁠in the workplace and many have also signed away their right to sue in court, agreeing instead to resolve workplace disputes through a private process called arbitration that can keep such claims from ever being tested publicly.

In a ruling last week declining to block Meta from ​finalizing the terminations of 26 people who sued, U.S. District Judge William Orrick identified a fundamental obstacle for ​plaintiffs who ⁠allege that AI discriminated against them: “they were not in the rooms where it happened.”

That means workers like the Meta employees, who claim they were targeted for layoffs because they have disabilities or took medical or family leave, often cannot muster the evidence of wrongdoing necessary to quickly secure a win in court.

And they face another obstacle: Like a majority of U.S. workers, the plaintiffs are bound by an arbitration agreement, meaning they cannot band together in a class action, put their case before a jury, or push for a multimillion-dollar settlement in open court.

Arbitration agreements block lawsuits

Companies generally prefer arbitration, which they say is a faster, cheaper alternative to court, while worker advocates say it often favors employers and discourages workers from bringing claims. The arbitration process is also confidential, so it can shield unfavorable evidence unearthed in an individual case from wider disclosure.

“Even if you establish that a particular system would produce discriminatory outcomes left and right, you have no way of sharing that information with other employees,” said Christine Webber, co-chair of the civil rights and employment practice at plaintiffs’ firm Cohen Milstein Sellers & Toll. Webber’s ⁠firm is ⁠not involved in the Meta case.

Webber and other plaintiffs’ lawyers said those hurdles explain the lack of high-profile court cases involving employers’ use of AI even as it becomes routine, and why even the lawsuit against Meta seeking only temporary relief is unusual.

One of the few cases to emerge over companies’ workplace use of AI tools involves Workday, which is facing claims that its popular HR management software unlawfully filtered out applicants for jobs at other companies based on race, age and disability. Arbitration is not an issue in that case because Workday does not have agreements with its customers’ job applicants. Workday denies the allegations.

Plaintiffs seek injunction

The agreements signed by the Meta workers contain a common, narrow exception for seeking a court order that temporarily blocks one side from taking some irreversible action. But that exception is typically invoked in cases involving the alleged theft of trade secrets or the solicitation of ⁠clients or employees, and not layoffs of at-will workers.

Orrick denied the plaintiffs a temporary restraining order that would have stopped Meta from completing the layoffs. He must still decide whether to issue a preliminary injunction, a temporary but longer-lasting order that would put the workers back in their jobs until their individual arbitration cases are resolved. He said he could change his mind ​and grant the injunction if the plaintiffs come up with evidence “regarding whether and how AI was used in an improper manner.”

A hearing is scheduled for Aug. 24, ​and the losing side can appeal Orrick’s decision.

The plaintiffs claim that in selecting jobs to cut, Meta consulted AI tools that tracked productivity and AI token usage (a measure of how much workers use AI tools), disadvantaging people who missed work because of medical conditions or to care for ⁠family members.

They allege that ‌Meta used ‌a number of internal AI-assisted systems, including a large language model assistant known as “Metamate,” an employee-trained “second brain” that ⁠tracked workers’ communications and documents, and a productivity score drawn from scanning keystrokes, screen content, emails and browser ‌history, according to the lawsuit.

Meta said in court filings and statements last week in response to the lawsuit that humans made all of the decisions concerning nearly 8,000 layoffs announced earlier this ​year and has denied treating AI usage as a basis ⁠for identifying workers to terminate or to conduct performance reviews.

Orrick said in his decision that he was bound to take Meta at its word since the plaintiffs could not present any ⁠evidence to rebut those claims.

The plaintiffs’ lawyers ​in a joint statement last week acknowledged the hurdles they face in gathering evidence, even calling on current and former Meta employees to contact them with knowledge of how AI was used in the selection process.

“Meta holds virtually all the relevant information,” they said.

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Türkiye has issued a Navtex, a legal advisory message to mariners, for seismic surveys in the Mediterranean as part of preparations for a planned natural gas pipeline linking it with the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (RNC), a report said on Wednesday.

The Oruç Reis seismic research vessel will conduct surveys along the planned pipeline route until Aug. 30, Bloomberg News reported.

Earlier this month, Türkiye and the TRNC signed an agreement to begin work on the gas pipeline that would run beneath the Mediterranean Sea.

Energy and Natural Resources Minister Alparslan Bayraktar said the pipeline would be 101 kilometers long, with 97 kilometers running offshore and four kilometers on land.

The pipeline, designed as a two-way system, would connect Mersin’s Anamur district on Türkiye’s southern coast with the Teknecik area east of the coastal city Girne, also known as Kyrenia, in the TRNC.

Bayraktar said the infrastructure could initially supply natural gas to the TRNC, while also creating a potential route for transporting future gas discoveries from the Eastern Mediterranean and neighboring countries to Türkiye and eventually Europe.

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