Economy
Oil prices sink, shares gain as US, Iran pause fighting
Global shares were mostly higher Monday and oil prices slipped nearly 7% as the U.S. and Iran paused strikes over the weekend following two weeks of attacks while discussing a possible return to negotiations on an interim cease-fire deal.
The Pentagon did not respond to questions about the pause in attacks on Iranian coastal areas and infrastructure after nearly two weeks of escalating fighting sparked by Iran’s firing at ships trying to transit the Strait of Hormuz.
But markets reacted with relief. U.S. futures surged early Monday and the price of a barrel of Brent crude, the international standard, dropped 6.8% to $85.49.
U.S. benchmark crude dropped 7% to $83.06 per barrel.
“Oil’s sharp retreat at the Monday open did more than knock a few dollars off the barrel. It loosened the geopolitical knot that had been tightening around equities, currencies, bonds and central banks for most of July,” Stephen Innes of SPI Asset Management said in a commentary.
Brent had reached $100 per barrel as the conflict, which reduced oil shipments via the Strait of Hormuz, spilled over to the Red Sea, hindering exports from the world’s top exporter, Saudi Arabia, via the Bab el-Mandeb Strait to Asia.
Fewer than 10 commodity vessels passed through the Strait of Hormuz daily during the weekend, shipping data from Kpler showed.
“Any rebound in flows through the Strait of Hormuz is likely to prove slow and partial, as many shippers remain wary and will want greater confidence in their safety before they bring more empty ships into the Strait,” MST Marquee analyst Saul Kavonic said.
In addition, ship traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait fell on Sunday after Yemeni Houthis attacked Saudi oil installations along the Red Sea coast, although a third Chinese supertanker exited via the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. Societe Generale analysts estimate that each month without a resolution in the Red Sea would add at least $10 a barrel to the oil price.
Some analysts expect markets will remain supported if crude supplies continue to be disrupted by ongoing shipping risks in the Middle East and Russia’s war on Ukraine.
“As the Middle East conflict widened to the Red Sea and Ukrainian drones struck Russian ships and refineries… sustained (supply) disruption would likely keep oil prices elevated and continue to pose upside risks to global inflation,” UOB analysts said in a note.
Ukraine said it hit several Russian oil sites over the weekend.
Chinese chipmaker CXMT soars
Meanwhile, shares in Chinese memory chipmaker CXMT soared 466% on Monday as they began trading on Shanghai’s technology board. The company jumped to become China’s most valuable listed company with an estimated market capitalization of 3.3 trillion yuan (nearly $490 billion).
In early European trading, Germany’s DAX gained 1.6% to 25,497,42 and the CAC 40 in Paris was up 0.8% at 8,436.94. Britain’s FTSE 100 rose 0.5% to 10,784.00.
The futures for the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average were up 1%.
In Asian trading, Japan’s benchmark Nikkei 225 rose 0.5% to 64,931.19, while the Kospi in South Korea advanced 1% to 6,755.75.
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng climbed 1% to 25,207.18, while the Shanghai Composite index gained 1.2% to 3,858.25.
In Australia, the S&P/ASX 200 surged 1.4% to 8,894.00.
Taiwan’s Taiex slipped 0.1% and the Sensex in India added 1.1%.
On Friday, the S&P 500 barely budged, picking up less than 0.1% and notching its second straight losing week for the first time since March.
The Dow industrials rose 0.5%. The Nasdaq composite index slipped 0.6%, weighed down by sharp losses for heavyweights like Micron Technology, which fell 7%, and Broadcom, which lost 2.7%.
Recent surges in energy prices and fresh tariffs announced last week by the administration of U.S. President Donald Trump could result in hotter inflation, which has been squeezing consumers and looming over the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) interest rate policy.
The Fed meets this week, though rising inflation has dashed hopes for an interest rate cut anytime soon. Wall Street has been leaning toward a potential rate hike to tamp down higher prices.
Higher energy costs are taking up a bigger share of household budgets, which have shifted toward more basic needs, like gasoline.
In the U.S., a gallon of gasoline costs $4.11, according to AAA. That is still lower than this spring as the conflict in Iran expanded, but almost a dollar higher than last year at this time.
“Oil is the fastest-moving tax in the global economy,” Innes said.
When crude rises sharply, consumers feel it at the fuel pump, airlines and transport companies feel it in their operating costs, manufacturers feel it in their logistics, and central banks begin worrying that the initial supply shock will spill over into broader inflation expectations,” he noted.
Meanwhile, corporate earnings reports are focusing attention on the sustainability of broader profits from a boom in spending on artificial intelligence.
Tech giants like Alphabet and Nvidia have been spending heavily to expand AI capacity and investors increasingly are questioning whether they will generate profits to justify the massive stock values that have pushed markets higher throughout the year.
In other dealings early Monday, the U.S. dollar slipped to 163.56 Japanese yen from 163.64 yen. The euro rose to $1.1399 from $1.1398.
Teknofest Southeast continues in Şanlıurfa with aviation displays, defense technologies, educational activities and cultural events, as thousands of visitors explore the festival grounds at Şanlıurfa GAP Airport.
The five-day festival, organized with the participation of the Ministry of Industry and Technology, the T3 Foundation and the Turkish Aerospace and Technology Company, is bringing together technology enthusiasts, students, researchers and families through Oct. 4.
The event features technology competitions in 14 categories, exhibitions, scientific workshops, simulation experiences and air shows, while visitors can also explore a wide range of Turkish aviation and defense platforms.
As Teknofest prepares to enter its third day, its program continues to combine large-scale aviation demonstrations with hands-on educational activities and cultural experiences reflecting the identity of Şanlıurfa.
Defense platforms take center stage
Defense and aviation remain among the main attractions at the festival, with visitors able to see a wide range of aircraft, unmanned systems and other military platforms at close range.
For the first time at the festival, a full-scale mock-up of Türkiye’s Kaan fighter jet is on display, giving visitors a closer look at the country’s fifth-generation stealth combat aircraft project.
The Kaan display is part of a large exhibition featuring Atak helicopters, Hürkuş, Cezeri, Anka, Bayraktar TB2, Bayraktar TB3 and Bayraktar Akıncı, along with Turkish land and maritime vehicles.
Bayraktar Akıncı also took part in the flight demonstrations, with images captured by the unmanned combat aircraft transmitted to large screens for visitors on the ground.
The Turkish Stars, the Turkish Air Force’s aerobatic team, performed over the festival on opening day, drawing the attention of thousands of visitors who watched the aircraft soar across the sky.
The aviation program is complemented by paramotor and hang glider demonstrations, giving visitors the opportunity to watch different forms of flight alongside military aircraft.
Technology presented beyond airfield
While aircraft and air shows provide some of the festival’s most visible moments, Teknofest is also designed around education and direct interaction with technology.
Visitors can explore advanced technology simulations, scientific workshops, exhibitions, a planetarium, science shows and the Teknofest Time Tunnel. The festival also includes displays of national air, land and maritime vehicles, as well as special first flight activities for students.
On the opening day, students visited an area operated by traffic gendarmerie teams, where they received information about traffic safety equipment including road traps, radar devices and alcohol meters. They also experienced a seat belt simulation vehicle.
Agriculture and environmental education are also part of the program. Students attending activities organized at the food, agriculture and livestock technology area were introduced to beekeeping and were allowed to observe live bees while learning about bee species and beekeeping.
The festival also features activities focused on accessibility. The Türkiye Beyazay Association is presenting projects related to technologies and methods intended to make education, employment and participation in social life more accessible to people with disabilities.
For many young visitors, the experience is closely connected to their future ambitions.
Şanlıurfa’s heritage meets modern technology
The festival is also presenting Şanlıurfa’s cultural identity alongside advanced technology.
At a stand organized by Haliliye Municipality, a traditional “sıra gecesi” music group performed locally adapted songs while preparing “çiğ köfte” (steak tartar a la turca) for visitors. A four-legged robotic dog was also presented at the stand, creating a visual meeting point between one of Şanlıurfa’s best-known culinary traditions and modern robotics.
The combination of tradition and technology is seen throughout the festival area, where visitors can move between local music, food and traditional clothing and exhibitions featuring aircraft, unmanned systems and robotic technologies.
Teknofest Southeast will continue through Oct. 4 at Şanlıurfa GAP Airport with technology competitions, air shows, exhibitions, workshops, simulation experiences, stage events and celebrations of Şanlıurfa’s cultural heritage.
Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney is planning a visit to Türkiye this month for talks with President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, in what would be the first dedicated bilateral trip to the country by a Canadian leader, Reuters reported Friday, citing four sources familiar with the plans.
One source said Carney and Erdoğan could discuss free-trade talks launched on the sidelines of a NATO summit in Ankara in July, as well as potential cooperation in energy and defense. Canadian and Turkish trade ministers agreed this week to accelerate the talks ahead of the leaders’ meeting, two sources said.
The visit would mark Carney’s latest effort to diversify Canada’s economic ties as he seeks to reduce the country’s reliance on the United States, by far its largest trading partner, following the collapse of trade talks in August.
Carney has vowed to double Canada’s non-U.S. trade over the next decade and has moved to strengthen ties with a range of countries, including China and India.
Türkiye, whose largest trading partner is the European Union, is also seeking new partnerships and investment in energy, infrastructure and mining, while expanding opportunities for its growing defense industry.
The sources did not provide dates or a detailed agenda for the visit, which is planned for later this month.
Carney’s office and Erdoğan’s office did not immediately respond to requests for comment.
No Canadian prime minister is known to have made a standalone bilateral visit to Türkiye in recent decades, though Canadian leaders have met Erdoğan and other Turkish officials on the sidelines of multilateral gatherings, including NATO and G20 summits hosted by Türkiye.
At the NATO leaders’ summit in July, Carney and Erdoğan formally launched negotiations for a free-trade agreement.
That month, Türkiye agreed to join Canada’s Defence Security and Resilience Bank as one of 10 founding member nations of Carney’s multilateral “middle powers” bank.
The two countries’ trade ministers met in June and discussed expanding cooperation on renewable and nuclear energy, according to a Canadian government statement, which also listed aerospace, defense and security as areas for potential new partnerships.
Türkiye has held talks with Canadian engineering firm AtkinsRealis, South Korea’s Korea Electric Power Corporation and China’s State Power Investment Corporation over potentially building its second and third nuclear power plants. Russia’s Rosatom is building the country’s first.
An executive at AtkinsRealis, which holds the exclusive license for Canadian-designed CANDU reactors, told Reuters this year that the company expects Türkiye to complete an initial review of its CANDU reactors following an information exchange, potentially paving the way for formal talks on a plant bid.
In a step that helped improve bilateral ties in 2024, Canada lifted weapons-export restrictions on Türkiye, including controls on optical technology used in drones that Türkiye exports to dozens of countries.
Bilateral trade, however, remains relatively small.
Türkiye accounted for less than 0.3% of Canada’s total merchandise trade in 2025, at C$4.34 billion ($3.05 billion), compared with C$1 trillion in trade with the U.S., according to Statistics Canada data.
Canada mainly exports lentils, aircraft and electronics to Türkiye, while importing medical devices, fishing vessels, aircraft engines and jewelry.
S&P Global Ratings does not expect the ongoing investigation and liquidation of over 100 investment funds in Türkiye to put downward pressure on the country’s sovereign credit rating, according to its analysts.
S&P is due to publish its second credit rating and outlook review for Türkiye this year on Oct. 16. In its latest assessment in April, the agency affirmed Türkiye’s rating at BB-/B and maintained its outlook as stable.
Turkish authorities have stepped in to resolve the fund turmoil that erupted last month after suspected price manipulation in a number of thinly traded stocks triggered heavy losses and redemption pressures at investment funds.
Almost half a million investors hold stakes in more than 100 investment funds with combined assets of nearly $20 billion that authorities ordered to be liquidated in mid-September.
Karen Vartapetov, S&P Global Ratings’ director and lead analyst for Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) and the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS), said the regulatory measures and policy response to the fund investigation had been “quick and convincing,” adding that authorities had managed to contain the issue without a broader negative impact on the financial system.
“There is not much evidence that this process has negatively affected confidence and perceptions of the Turkish economy,” Vartapetov told Anadolu Agency (AA), according to a Turkish transcript of his remarks.
From a macroeconomic perspective, there has so far been limited impact, with the issue appearing to remain largely isolated, he said.
S&P had not observed significant reactions in areas it monitors, including the exchange rate, dollarization, financial conditions and banking-sector liquidity, according to Vartapetov.
If the fund-related developments remain isolated, they would not create downward pressure on the sovereign rating, he said.
“I think the negative effects will be limited if the fund crisis remains isolated and households continue to have confidence in real-currency assets,” Vartapetov said.
He stressed that sovereign ratings are determined by a committee and that the developments involving the funds would inevitably be discussed as part of that process.
S&P would likely highlight the episode as a risk, Vartapetov said, but added that there was not yet clear evidence of significant macroeconomic consequences.
If the issue remains confined to “a narrow asset class,” it would not be a “game changer” for investor sentiment, he said.
Reserve recovery supports rating
Vartapetov also discussed S&P’s outlook for Türkiye’s growth, inflation and international reserves.
The agency expects average inflation of around 30% this year and economic growth of close to 3%, he said. Inflation lastly eased to 31.51% in August.
Reserve adequacy remains one of the most important parameters for Türkiye’s credit rating, Vartapetov said.
Türkiye entered the year with reserves at a very high level, including record gross reserves. The Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye (CBRT) used some reserves to contain the negative impact of higher energy prices, but later replenished part of the amount, he said.
“Gross reserves are therefore somewhat below January-February levels, but the recovery in reserves is supportive of the credit rating,” Vartapetov said.
Net reserves are not as strong as gross reserves but have also recovered, he added.
Vartapetov said household behavior had been another key focus for S&P in assessing Türkiye’s credit profile in recent years.
The agency has been monitoring whether households continue to prefer the Turkish lira, lira-denominated assets and bank deposits or shift toward the dollar, which could put pressure on foreign-exchange reserves.
Despite geopolitical developments in the Middle East, high energy prices and the fund investigation, households’ stance toward the lira has remained relatively strong, Vartapetov said.
“We have not seen much evidence of dollarization picking up again. Financial-system dollarization has not increased,” he said.
Policy response seen as ‘quite strong’
Regina Argenio, director of financial institutions ratings in the region at S&P Global, said the biggest immediate impact of the fund developments had been felt in the stock market, where equity valuations declined.
“Beyond the initial correction, however, we have seen valuations stabilize,” she said. Data arrive with some delay and may not yet provide the full picture, but there had also been no major movement in bank liquidity, she added.
Argenio said it was important that the problems remained isolated to the funds concerned and described the policy response so far as “quite strong.”
Beyond judicial proceedings, authorities had provided liquidity to the market and appointed banks to handle the liquidation of the funds, she added.
Türkiye’s newly established board tasked with overseeing the rapid liquidation of investment funds caught in the recent turmoil said Friday that work had been carried out on draft amendments to the Capital Markets Law and that the relevant institutions had been instructed to finalize the proposed changes.
The statement followed a meeting of the Fund Coordination Board set up last week and chaired by Vice President Cevdet Yılmaz. The State Supervisory Council (DDK) has also been assigned to examine the issue.
The fund turmoil erupted last month after suspected price manipulation in a number of thinly traded stocks triggered heavy losses and redemption pressures at investment funds.
Almost half a million investors hold stakes in more than 100 investment funds with combined assets of $20 billion that authorities ordered to be liquidated in mid-September.
The board reviewed on Friday the results of measures already taken and discussed new steps, according to the statement by the Directorate of Communications.
It reviewed secondary regulations and a timetable for payments linked to decisions taken by the Capital Markets Board on Wednesday.
The SPK said it would begin making interim payments to investors in the funds that were ordered to shut down.
Investors in asset managers Tera Portföy, Pusula Portföy, Atlas Portföy and Hedef Portföy will receive their full net investment amount if it is below TL 1 million ($20,404). Investors whose net investment amount is TL 1 million or above will receive TL 1 million as an interim payment.
The procedure will start with money market funds, the SPK said.
Friday’s statement said the draft amendments, on which work has been underway for some time, were also discussed. It stressed that the planned regulations should not impose any additional burden on citizens.
The directorate described the problem as arising in a “specific and limited” part of the fund market. It said work to resolve it would continue quickly and effectively, in line with capital markets rules and guided by fairness and equity.
The problems emerged in early September, when the SPK changed its guidelines for investment funds. Funds could no longer put all their assets into a single stock and were required to diversify.
The move sought to address concerns that many funds were heavily invested in a small number of obscure or hard-to-sell stocks.
To comply, some funds began selling holdings, which spooked investors and set off a rush to cash out. Several fund management companies then admitted they could not meet redemption demands.
On Sept. 16, authorities ordered 131 funds managed by seven companies into liquidation.
Top officials, including Treasury and Finance Minister Mehmet Şimşek, have sought to reassure markets, saying the turmoil does not threaten the wider financial system and describing the problem as limited.
Şimşek told investors on Thursday that authorities had moved quickly to contain problems and prevent them from developing into a systemic crisis, adding that further regulatory measures would be needed.
Speaking separately on Thursday, President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan said developments in the fund market would not pose a threat to the economy. He said authorities would not allow the issue to become a threat to Türkiye’s economic security or social stability.
Prosecutors are also investigating. The SPK said some funds had caused price movements that could not be explained by company fundamentals, and it filed criminal complaints over alleged manipulative transactions.
Authorities have imposed travel bans and asset freezes, while arresting 65 people, including top financial executives, as of Friday.
The share of individuals in Türkiye using generative artificial intelligence nearly doubled in a year, rising to 37.6% in 2026 from 19.2% in 2025, data released by the national statistics authority showed Friday.
The share of businesses using AI also increased, reaching 14%, the Turkish Statistical Institute (TurkStat) said, while a lack of expertise emerged as the biggest obstacle for companies considering adopting the technology.
In 2026, the share of women using AI stood at 38.1%, compared with 37.2% among men, the data showed. The highest adoption rate was recorded among people aged 16-24, at 64.9%. This was followed by those aged 25-34 at 55.7% and the 35-44 age group at 38.1%.
AI use also increased with educational attainment.
Among university graduates, the adoption rate reached 62.7%, compared with 45.4% among high school or vocational high school graduates, 35.5% among those with primary or lower-secondary education and 8.5% among primary school graduates.
Among individuals using AI, 86.4% said they used the technology for personal purposes. Professional use stood at 37.3%, while 32.6% reported using AI for formal education.
Professional use was higher among men, at 43.2%, compared with 31.2% among women. For education, the corresponding rates were 36.1% for women and 29.1% for men.
Business adoption booms
The share of enterprises using AI technologies has also risen sharply, from 2.7% in 2021 to 14% in 2026.
Adoption was highest among businesses with 250 or more employees, at 37.1%. The rate stood at 17% among enterprises with 50-249 employees and 12.8% among those employing 10-49 people.
By economic activity, the highest rate of AI use was recorded in telecommunications, programming and information technology activities, at 63.7%.
Publishing, broadcasting and content activities followed at 57.1%, while computer and communication equipment repair activities recorded an adoption rate of 32.4%.
Among enterprises using AI, 51% said they used the technology for marketing or sales activities.
AI use for research and development and innovation stood at 46.3%, while 43.4% used it in production or service processes.
Some 67.8% of AI-using enterprises relied on open-source AI software, while 49.1% used closed-source software.
The share of enterprises that had AI systems developed by external providers stood at 46.5%, compared with 32.1% that developed them using their own employees.
1 in 6 firms processes personal data
Some 16.6% of enterprises using AI said they processed personal data about individuals through the technology.
Such data included gender, age, occupation, educational status, address information, purchase records and facial images.
Meanwhile, 8.3% of enterprises that did not currently use AI said they were considering adopting it.
Among enterprises considering AI adoption but not yet using the technology, the biggest obstacle was a lack of relevant expertise, cited by 72.3%.
This was followed by legal uncertainty over who would be responsible for potential harm arising from AI use, at 66.4%, and concerns over data protection and privacy, at 65.4%.
The Group of Seven industrialized nations agreed to release 100 million barrels of oil, beginning with substantial volumes of diesel, as fuel prices hit record highs in the United States and President Donald Trump said the diesel supplies would be released immediately.
Trump and his Republican Party face pressure to address surging prices ahead of November’s midterm elections. Trump announced the action Friday on social media, saying, “Europe has just agreed to release a massive amount of their heavily stocked Diesel Oil. The process will begin immediately.”
The president faces lagging approval ratings as the Iran war and his trade battles have increased U.S. prices for oil and other goods.
Gas prices in the U.S. and abroad have soared during the eight-month-long war, a cost Trump has repeatedly said is worth it for making sure Iran does not obtain nuclear weapons. Trump has insisted prices will come down after the war, though there’s no end in sight.
The national average for a gallon of diesel in the U.S. was $6.37 on Friday, according to AAA, after hitting a record $6.52 on Sept. 22.
Trump had a conversation overnight with French President Emmanuel Macron, the chair of the G7, about the need to address rising fuel prices and the availability of petroleum products, according to the French Embassy in the U.S. Macron on Friday then chaired a videoconference of G7 leaders to discuss the issue.
France holds the rotating presidency of the G7 group and made the announcement in a statement released after video-conference talks that Macron presided over. The International Energy Agency will coordinate the effort to combat soaring fuel prices. “We will implement our commitments with a coordinated release through the IEA of 100 million barrels (MB) to begin immediately over 4 months, including a frontloaded substantial diesel release within the first 20 days by G7 members and partners,” the statement said.
A new AP-NORC poll found that a majority of U.S. adults blame Trump for higher prices, and approval of his handling of the economy hit a new low.
Trump has grown increasingly frustrated with what he sees as a disconnect between his achievements and the public’s view of his work. Trump this week gave himself an A-plus for his work on the economy but said “we’re doing an extremely poor job of promotion.”
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