Economy
Türkiye’s auto output slows, but industry bets on new investment cycle
Türkiye’s automotive production fell 8% year-over-year in the first seven months of 2026, while exports by volume declined 14%, as weaker passenger car output and fewer working days weighed on the sector, data showed Monday.
But industry officials said the decline partly reflects preparations by automakers to introduce new models and expand capacity, with the impact of those investments expected to become more visible in the final quarter and particularly in 2027.
Automotive Industry Association (OSD) Chair Cengiz Eroldu said some of their members were preparing their production lines for new models and capacity investments.
“When a new product is introduced to a production line, the existing production pace has to be reduced for a certain period. We consider the production loss to be a normal consequence of the transition to new investments,” Eroldu said.
Hyundai, Opel and Peugeot just recently announced new investments and launches of production of new models in Türkiye.
Hyundai on Friday started mass production of its new all-electric IONIQ 3 model at a factory in Türkiye’s northwestern Kocaeli province.
Earlier this month, Opel said it was moving production of its light commercial vehicle model Combo to Türkiye from the third quarter of this year.
In late July, Peugeot announced it would begin producing its Rifter light commercial vehicle in Türkiye beginning in the third quarter.
Production falls as passenger car output weakens
Eroldu, meanwhile, said the sector also lost around five to six working days in the first seven months compared with the same period last year because of public holidays and administrative leave.
Total automotive production reached 767,216 vehicles in January-July, down 8% from a year earlier, the OSD data showed. Passenger car production declined 19% to 424,667 units.
Commercial vehicle production, however, remained more resilient, rising 9%. Within the segment, production increased 16% for midibuses, 15% for light trucks, 8% for buses and 1% for trucks, while minibus production fell 9%.
The industry’s overall capacity utilization rate stood at 62%, with utilization at 63% for light vehicles, 69% for buses and midibuses, 57% for trucks and just 28% for tractors.
Eroldu said the differing performance across vehicle categories was significant.
“Production declines were concentrated mainly on the passenger car side, while we are seeing a more positive trend in light commercial and heavy commercial vehicles,” he said, adding that the sharp decline in tractor production and the more than 50% contraction in the domestic tractor market warranted attention.
New investments expected to lift local production
Despite the production decline, Eroldu said new investments were already beginning to support the share of locally produced vehicles in the domestic market.
The share of domestically produced vehicles in the passenger car market rose to 35% from 29% a year earlier. Locally produced passenger car sales increased 4%, while imported sales fell 19%.
In the light commercial vehicle market, locally produced vehicle sales rose 13%, lifting their share to 23%, while imported sales fell 9%.
Eroldu said the increase in the domestic share was an early indication of the impact of new investments and that the contribution should become more pronounced as production of new models ramps up.
“The positive impact of new models entering production and export programs will become apparent in the final quarter of the year and, more significantly, in 2027,” he said.
Export volumes decline, but revenue remains resilient
Automotive exports fell 14% by volume to 542,401 vehicles during the first seven months, according to the OSD data. About 71% of total production was exported.
Passenger car exports dropped 29% to 255,679 units, while commercial vehicle exports increased 8%. Tractor exports rose 20% to 7,792 units.
Despite the decline in unit exports, export revenue continued to increase. According to Türkiye Exporters Assembly (TIM) data, total automotive exports rose by around 2%-2.6% in dollar terms to approximately $24 billion.
Uludağ Automotive Industry Exporters’ Association data showed passenger car export revenue fell 9% to $6.3 billion, while exports by main manufacturers increased 0.1% and those by suppliers rose 4.5%.
Automotive remained Türkiye’s leading export sector, accounting for 17% of total exports.
Domestic market contracts, but local share increases
The total automotive market shrank 11% year-over-year to 661,249 vehicles in January-July. Passenger-car sales fell 12% to 502,712, while the commercial vehicle market contracted 5%.
Heavy commercial vehicle sales declined 8%, but bus sales rose 23% and midibus sales increased 14%.
Eroldu noted that despite the market contraction, the sector remained significantly above its long-term averages. Compared with the previous 10-year average, the total market was 31% higher, the passenger car market 32% higher, the light commercial market 30% higher and the heavy commercial market 22% higher.
Europe remains key to industry’s outlook
Eroldu said the performance of the domestic market, demand and competitive conditions in Europe, and the implementation of new models would be critical for the remainder of the year.
He expects full-year production and exports to remain somewhat below 2025 levels but relatively close to last year’s performance.
Looking ahead to 2027, the sector will focus on domestic demand, global vehicle demand, China’s competitive pressure, cost pressures, excess capacity and the European Union’s proposed Industrial Acceleration Act (IAA).
Europe accounts for around 70% of Türkiye’s automotive exports, making the outcome of the IAA negotiations particularly important for Turkish manufacturers and suppliers.
“We expect the negotiation process to extend into 2027,” Eroldu said, stressing that Türkiye’s automotive industry is deeply integrated with Europe’s manufacturing, investment and supply chains.
He said the industry wants Türkiye to be treated within the EU framework as a customs union partner and an integral part of the European automotive value chain, covering both vehicle manufacturers and suppliers.
Eroldu also said that reducing cost pressures caused by the gap between exchange rates and inflation, improving exporters’ access to finance and maintaining predictability in the investment environment would be crucial to the industry’s competitiveness in 2027.
Egyptian President Abdel-Fattah el-Sissi Saturday urged African countries to prioritize peaceful solutions to conflicts, strengthen state institutions and respect national sovereignty, saying stability is essential for economic development.
“Economic development cannot be built in unstable countries, and stability is not a luxury but a fundamental pillar sought by investors, manufacturers and farmers so they can operate in a safe environment,” el-Sissi said in his opening speech at the Alamein Africa Forum, which began Friday in New Alamein on Egypt’s northern coast.
“Across our African continent, we fully understand that security begins with supporting the national state and its institutions, respecting its unity and sovereignty, prioritizing peaceful solutions to conflicts and crises, and upholding the principle of good neighborliness,” he added.
The three-day forum has brought together about 1,500 government officials, business leaders, investors and representatives of financial institutions from across Africa, with discussions focused on economic development, investment and greater continental integration.
El-Sissi said Africa’s private sector is the main driver of the continent’s economies, contributing more than 70% of its gross domestic product.
About 85% of transactions by Africa’s private sector are conducted with companies from outside the continent, el-Sissi added.
Despite trade agreements and preferential arrangements among African countries, intra-African trade has accounted for only about 18% of the continent’s total trade in recent years, el-Sissi said.
On international developments, el-Sissi said Africa aspires to “a world characterized by peace and stability, rather than being made to bear the consequences of global crises in which it was not a party but whose negative repercussions it suffers.”
He cited the current energy crisis as an example, pointing to the impact of rising fuel and fertilizer prices and disruptions to supply and shipping chains on African countries.
Last February, the African Union summit in Addis Ababa approved plans to hold the Alamein Africa Forum every two years in New Alamein.
Egypt is organizing the forum in cooperation with the African Export-Import Bank and the African Union Development Agency.
Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi on Saturday urged African countries to prioritize peaceful solutions to conflicts, strengthen state institutions and respect national sovereignty, saying stability is essential for economic development.
“Economic development cannot be built in unstable countries, and stability is not a luxury but a fundamental pillar sought by investors, manufacturers and farmers so they can operate in a safe environment,” Sisi said in his opening speech at the Alamein Africa Forum, which began Friday in New Alamein on Egypt’s northern coast.
“Across our African continent, we fully understand that security begins with supporting the national state and its institutions, respecting its unity and sovereignty, prioritizing peaceful solutions to conflicts and crises, and upholding the principle of good neighborliness,” he added.
The three-day forum has brought together about 1,500 government officials, business leaders, investors and representatives of financial institutions from across Africa, with discussions focused on economic development, investment and greater continental integration.
Sisi said Africa’s private sector is the main driver of the continent’s economies, contributing more than 70% of its gross domestic product.
About 85% of transactions by Africa’s private sector are conducted with companies from outside the continent, Sisi added.
Despite trade agreements and preferential arrangements among African countries, intra-African trade has accounted for only about 18% of the continent’s total trade in recent years, Sisi said.
On international developments, Sisi said Africa aspires to “a world characterized by peace and stability, rather than being made to bear the consequences of global crises in which it was not a party but whose negative repercussions it suffers.”
He cited the current energy crisis as an example, pointing to the impact of rising fuel and fertilizer prices and disruptions to supply and shipping chains on African countries.
Last February, the African Union summit in Addis Ababa approved plans to hold the Alamein Africa Forum every two years in New Alamein.
Egypt is organizing the forum in cooperation with the African Export-Import Bank and the African Union Development Agency.
Teknofest Southeast continues in Şanlıurfa with aviation displays, defense technologies, educational activities and cultural events, as thousands of visitors explore the festival grounds at Şanlıurfa GAP Airport.
The five-day festival, organized with the participation of the Ministry of Industry and Technology, the T3 Foundation and the Turkish Aerospace and Technology Company, is bringing together technology enthusiasts, students, researchers and families through Oct. 4.
The event features technology competitions in 14 categories, exhibitions, scientific workshops, simulation experiences and air shows, while visitors can also explore a wide range of Turkish aviation and defense platforms.
As Teknofest prepares to enter its third day, its program continues to combine large-scale aviation demonstrations with hands-on educational activities and cultural experiences reflecting the identity of Şanlıurfa.
Defense platforms take center stage
Defense and aviation remain among the main attractions at the festival, with visitors able to see a wide range of aircraft, unmanned systems and other military platforms at close range.
For the first time at the festival, a full-scale mock-up of Türkiye’s Kaan fighter jet is on display, giving visitors a closer look at the country’s fifth-generation stealth combat aircraft project.
The Kaan display is part of a large exhibition featuring Atak helicopters, Hürkuş, Cezeri, Anka, Bayraktar TB2, Bayraktar TB3 and Bayraktar Akıncı, along with Turkish land and maritime vehicles.
Bayraktar Akıncı also took part in the flight demonstrations, with images captured by the unmanned combat aircraft transmitted to large screens for visitors on the ground.
The Turkish Stars, the Turkish Air Force’s aerobatic team, performed over the festival on opening day, drawing the attention of thousands of visitors who watched the aircraft soar across the sky.
The aviation program is complemented by paramotor and hang glider demonstrations, giving visitors the opportunity to watch different forms of flight alongside military aircraft.
Technology presented beyond airfield
While aircraft and air shows provide some of the festival’s most visible moments, Teknofest is also designed around education and direct interaction with technology.
Visitors can explore advanced technology simulations, scientific workshops, exhibitions, a planetarium, science shows and the Teknofest Time Tunnel. The festival also includes displays of national air, land and maritime vehicles, as well as special first flight activities for students.
On the opening day, students visited an area operated by traffic gendarmerie teams, where they received information about traffic safety equipment including road traps, radar devices and alcohol meters. They also experienced a seat belt simulation vehicle.
Agriculture and environmental education are also part of the program. Students attending activities organized at the food, agriculture and livestock technology area were introduced to beekeeping and were allowed to observe live bees while learning about bee species and beekeeping.
The festival also features activities focused on accessibility. The Türkiye Beyazay Association is presenting projects related to technologies and methods intended to make education, employment and participation in social life more accessible to people with disabilities.
For many young visitors, the experience is closely connected to their future ambitions.
Şanlıurfa’s heritage meets modern technology
The festival is also presenting Şanlıurfa’s cultural identity alongside advanced technology.
At a stand organized by Haliliye Municipality, a traditional “sıra gecesi” music group performed locally adapted songs while preparing “çiğ köfte” (steak tartar a la turca) for visitors. A four-legged robotic dog was also presented at the stand, creating a visual meeting point between one of Şanlıurfa’s best-known culinary traditions and modern robotics.
The combination of tradition and technology is seen throughout the festival area, where visitors can move between local music, food and traditional clothing and exhibitions featuring aircraft, unmanned systems and robotic technologies.
Teknofest Southeast will continue through Oct. 4 at Şanlıurfa GAP Airport with technology competitions, air shows, exhibitions, workshops, simulation experiences, stage events and celebrations of Şanlıurfa’s cultural heritage.
Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney is planning a visit to Türkiye this month for talks with President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, in what would be the first dedicated bilateral trip to the country by a Canadian leader, Reuters reported Friday, citing four sources familiar with the plans.
One source said Carney and Erdoğan could discuss free-trade talks launched on the sidelines of a NATO summit in Ankara in July, as well as potential cooperation in energy and defense. Canadian and Turkish trade ministers agreed this week to accelerate the talks ahead of the leaders’ meeting, two sources said.
The visit would mark Carney’s latest effort to diversify Canada’s economic ties as he seeks to reduce the country’s reliance on the United States, by far its largest trading partner, following the collapse of trade talks in August.
Carney has vowed to double Canada’s non-U.S. trade over the next decade and has moved to strengthen ties with a range of countries, including China and India.
Türkiye, whose largest trading partner is the European Union, is also seeking new partnerships and investment in energy, infrastructure and mining, while expanding opportunities for its growing defense industry.
The sources did not provide dates or a detailed agenda for the visit, which is planned for later this month.
Carney’s office and Erdoğan’s office did not immediately respond to requests for comment.
No Canadian prime minister is known to have made a standalone bilateral visit to Türkiye in recent decades, though Canadian leaders have met Erdoğan and other Turkish officials on the sidelines of multilateral gatherings, including NATO and G20 summits hosted by Türkiye.
At the NATO leaders’ summit in July, Carney and Erdoğan formally launched negotiations for a free-trade agreement.
That month, Türkiye agreed to join Canada’s Defence Security and Resilience Bank as one of 10 founding member nations of Carney’s multilateral “middle powers” bank.
The two countries’ trade ministers met in June and discussed expanding cooperation on renewable and nuclear energy, according to a Canadian government statement, which also listed aerospace, defense and security as areas for potential new partnerships.
Türkiye has held talks with Canadian engineering firm AtkinsRealis, South Korea’s Korea Electric Power Corporation and China’s State Power Investment Corporation over potentially building its second and third nuclear power plants. Russia’s Rosatom is building the country’s first.
An executive at AtkinsRealis, which holds the exclusive license for Canadian-designed CANDU reactors, told Reuters this year that the company expects Türkiye to complete an initial review of its CANDU reactors following an information exchange, potentially paving the way for formal talks on a plant bid.
In a step that helped improve bilateral ties in 2024, Canada lifted weapons-export restrictions on Türkiye, including controls on optical technology used in drones that Türkiye exports to dozens of countries.
Bilateral trade, however, remains relatively small.
Türkiye accounted for less than 0.3% of Canada’s total merchandise trade in 2025, at C$4.34 billion ($3.05 billion), compared with C$1 trillion in trade with the U.S., according to Statistics Canada data.
Canada mainly exports lentils, aircraft and electronics to Türkiye, while importing medical devices, fishing vessels, aircraft engines and jewelry.
S&P Global Ratings does not expect the ongoing investigation and liquidation of over 100 investment funds in Türkiye to put downward pressure on the country’s sovereign credit rating, according to its analysts.
S&P is due to publish its second credit rating and outlook review for Türkiye this year on Oct. 16. In its latest assessment in April, the agency affirmed Türkiye’s rating at BB-/B and maintained its outlook as stable.
Turkish authorities have stepped in to resolve the fund turmoil that erupted last month after suspected price manipulation in a number of thinly traded stocks triggered heavy losses and redemption pressures at investment funds.
Almost half a million investors hold stakes in more than 100 investment funds with combined assets of nearly $20 billion that authorities ordered to be liquidated in mid-September.
Karen Vartapetov, S&P Global Ratings’ director and lead analyst for Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) and the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS), said the regulatory measures and policy response to the fund investigation had been “quick and convincing,” adding that authorities had managed to contain the issue without a broader negative impact on the financial system.
“There is not much evidence that this process has negatively affected confidence and perceptions of the Turkish economy,” Vartapetov told Anadolu Agency (AA), according to a Turkish transcript of his remarks.
From a macroeconomic perspective, there has so far been limited impact, with the issue appearing to remain largely isolated, he said.
S&P had not observed significant reactions in areas it monitors, including the exchange rate, dollarization, financial conditions and banking-sector liquidity, according to Vartapetov.
If the fund-related developments remain isolated, they would not create downward pressure on the sovereign rating, he said.
“I think the negative effects will be limited if the fund crisis remains isolated and households continue to have confidence in real-currency assets,” Vartapetov said.
He stressed that sovereign ratings are determined by a committee and that the developments involving the funds would inevitably be discussed as part of that process.
S&P would likely highlight the episode as a risk, Vartapetov said, but added that there was not yet clear evidence of significant macroeconomic consequences.
If the issue remains confined to “a narrow asset class,” it would not be a “game changer” for investor sentiment, he said.
Reserve recovery supports rating
Vartapetov also discussed S&P’s outlook for Türkiye’s growth, inflation and international reserves.
The agency expects average inflation of around 30% this year and economic growth of close to 3%, he said. Inflation lastly eased to 31.51% in August.
Reserve adequacy remains one of the most important parameters for Türkiye’s credit rating, Vartapetov said.
Türkiye entered the year with reserves at a very high level, including record gross reserves. The Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye (CBRT) used some reserves to contain the negative impact of higher energy prices, but later replenished part of the amount, he said.
“Gross reserves are therefore somewhat below January-February levels, but the recovery in reserves is supportive of the credit rating,” Vartapetov said.
Net reserves are not as strong as gross reserves but have also recovered, he added.
Vartapetov said household behavior had been another key focus for S&P in assessing Türkiye’s credit profile in recent years.
The agency has been monitoring whether households continue to prefer the Turkish lira, lira-denominated assets and bank deposits or shift toward the dollar, which could put pressure on foreign-exchange reserves.
Despite geopolitical developments in the Middle East, high energy prices and the fund investigation, households’ stance toward the lira has remained relatively strong, Vartapetov said.
“We have not seen much evidence of dollarization picking up again. Financial-system dollarization has not increased,” he said.
Policy response seen as ‘quite strong’
Regina Argenio, director of financial institutions ratings in the region at S&P Global, said the biggest immediate impact of the fund developments had been felt in the stock market, where equity valuations declined.
“Beyond the initial correction, however, we have seen valuations stabilize,” she said. Data arrive with some delay and may not yet provide the full picture, but there had also been no major movement in bank liquidity, she added.
Argenio said it was important that the problems remained isolated to the funds concerned and described the policy response so far as “quite strong.”
Beyond judicial proceedings, authorities had provided liquidity to the market and appointed banks to handle the liquidation of the funds, she added.
Türkiye’s newly established board tasked with overseeing the rapid liquidation of investment funds caught in the recent turmoil said Friday that work had been carried out on draft amendments to the Capital Markets Law and that the relevant institutions had been instructed to finalize the proposed changes.
The statement followed a meeting of the Fund Coordination Board set up last week and chaired by Vice President Cevdet Yılmaz. The State Supervisory Council (DDK) has also been assigned to examine the issue.
The fund turmoil erupted last month after suspected price manipulation in a number of thinly traded stocks triggered heavy losses and redemption pressures at investment funds.
Almost half a million investors hold stakes in more than 100 investment funds with combined assets of $20 billion that authorities ordered to be liquidated in mid-September.
The board reviewed on Friday the results of measures already taken and discussed new steps, according to the statement by the Directorate of Communications.
It reviewed secondary regulations and a timetable for payments linked to decisions taken by the Capital Markets Board on Wednesday.
The SPK said it would begin making interim payments to investors in the funds that were ordered to shut down.
Investors in asset managers Tera Portföy, Pusula Portföy, Atlas Portföy and Hedef Portföy will receive their full net investment amount if it is below TL 1 million ($20,404). Investors whose net investment amount is TL 1 million or above will receive TL 1 million as an interim payment.
The procedure will start with money market funds, the SPK said.
Friday’s statement said the draft amendments, on which work has been underway for some time, were also discussed. It stressed that the planned regulations should not impose any additional burden on citizens.
The directorate described the problem as arising in a “specific and limited” part of the fund market. It said work to resolve it would continue quickly and effectively, in line with capital markets rules and guided by fairness and equity.
The problems emerged in early September, when the SPK changed its guidelines for investment funds. Funds could no longer put all their assets into a single stock and were required to diversify.
The move sought to address concerns that many funds were heavily invested in a small number of obscure or hard-to-sell stocks.
To comply, some funds began selling holdings, which spooked investors and set off a rush to cash out. Several fund management companies then admitted they could not meet redemption demands.
On Sept. 16, authorities ordered 131 funds managed by seven companies into liquidation.
Top officials, including Treasury and Finance Minister Mehmet Şimşek, have sought to reassure markets, saying the turmoil does not threaten the wider financial system and describing the problem as limited.
Şimşek told investors on Thursday that authorities had moved quickly to contain problems and prevent them from developing into a systemic crisis, adding that further regulatory measures would be needed.
Speaking separately on Thursday, President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan said developments in the fund market would not pose a threat to the economy. He said authorities would not allow the issue to become a threat to Türkiye’s economic security or social stability.
Prosecutors are also investigating. The SPK said some funds had caused price movements that could not be explained by company fundamentals, and it filed criminal complaints over alleged manipulative transactions.
Authorities have imposed travel bans and asset freezes, while arresting 65 people, including top financial executives, as of Friday.
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