Economy
US-Canada trade war reshapes Canadian supermarket shelves
A growing movement among Canadian consumers to favor domestic products and avoid U.S. goods is changing what appears on supermarket shelves, prompting grocery retailers to strengthen country-of-origin labeling and secure alternative sources of supply.
In Ontario, the president of independent grocer Vince’s Market, Giancarlo Trimarchi, turned to Facebook to show customers that most produce on the shelves of his stores is Canadian after receiving angry emails and comments about the grocer stocking U.S. produce.
A bitter trade war between the U.S. and Canada has made consumers more conscious of where their dollars go.
“Buy Canadian” movements started last year after U.S. President Donald Trump imposed tariffs on Canadian goods. They have intensified in recent weeks after trade talks broke down and Trump signed an executive order to change the name of Lake Ontario to Lake America.
“It is a lot more aggressive this time around than last year,” Trimarchi said in an interview.
Trump told reporters in Dublin on Saturday that Canada is eager to reach a trade deal with the United States and that an agreement could come “fairly soon,” while repeating his complaints that Canada has treated U.S. farmers unfairly and should remove tariffs.
Balancing act
Trimarchi’s four stores, spread across the Greater Toronto Area, now have about 90% Canadian produce.
Trimarchi is now sourcing strawberries from Quebec instead of the U.S. and said he has cut his advertising budget as the changes have pressured operating costs.
“We were always put in a position where you had to balance quality versus price. Now it’s quality versus price versus country of origin,” Trimarchi said.
Loblaw Cos, Canada’s largest food retailer, in August brought back large signs featuring a maple leaf in its produce and fresh-food sections after a brief hiatus to flag the Canadian origins of products. Loblaw also reintroduced a “T” tag to inform customers which products are affected by tariffs and make Canadian products easier to identify.
Metro, the country’s third-largest grocer, said it would continue to prioritize local Canadian products in the current context.
“There has been a permanent change in the Canadian psyche,” said Gary Sands, senior vice president of public policy and advocacy for the Canadian Federation of Independent Grocers.
Canada is the world’s fifth-largest importer of fresh vegetables by value. The United States is still the biggest supplier of fresh produce, accounting for more than half of the imports, followed by Mexico.
However, the share of Canada’s vegetable imports from the U.S. fell to 62.6% in July, the latest government data showed, from 69% in the same month of 2023, before Trump was elected.
More than half of Canada’s fruit imports came from the U.S. as of July. Trade talks broke down on Aug. 21, spurring a new round of tariffs and countertariffs.
‘Way to help’
John Ambard, 27, a software engineer who lives in downtown Toronto, said he has tried to avoid buying American products when possible, preferring to support Canadian brands and businesses.
Ambard said he checks product labels and researches companies online to identify Canadian-made goods.
“I think, honestly, if I can support Canadian products and Canadian institutions through these tough times, I think that’s a way to help in my small way,” Ambard said. “I’m a little bit mad with America right now with how things are going. The attitude has just not been that of a friend.”
Canada’s harsh winters present a challenge for fresh produce, and grocers typically rely on greenhouses, stocked root vegetables or imports, which are usually more cost-effective. But the change in sentiment toward the United States could push grocers to explore more local suppliers, experts say, while Canada invests in building a more self-reliant food system.
The Canadian government is investing about C$3 billion ($2.16 billion) over 10 years to build greenhouses to increase production during the harsh winter months. It is also trying to lower food inflation, which is among the highest in the G-7 developed nations by increasing the domestic food supply.
‘Safer position’
Gordon Dean, the owner of Mike Dean Local Grocer, which operates stores in rural Ontario and Quebec, said his stores are now selling more produce from countries such as Spain, Brazil and Honduras than they previously did.
“There’s nobody running back to the U.S. supply chain because once the new supply chains are established, they’re far more diversified. We’re in a safer position,” Dean said.
However, Dean said restrictions and differing regulations between provinces have made it harder to move food products across Canada, leaving many grocers reliant on suppliers south of the border.
“Nationalism is now trumping economics to a degree that might switch if the relationship improves,” said Mike von Massow, professor of food, agriculture and resource economics at the University of Guelph.
He said the Canada-U.S. relationship may never fully return to where it was, but a future easing of tensions, particularly under a new U.S. administration, could prompt a shift back to American products because they are often cheaper than other alternatives.
The U.S. central bank heads into a key rate-setting meeting this week with markets expecting policymakers to finally opt for a rate hike amid persistently elevated inflation, as analysts say chief Kevin Warsh’s credibility is on the line.
The world’s largest economy has been dealing with years of higher-than-target inflation, and prices have surged in the wake of U.S. President Donald Trump’s war on Iran, his signature tariff policies and the ongoing artificial intelligence boom.
The U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) has held rates steady since January, choosing to wait to gauge the effects of energy price shocks and to let the tariffs’ effects on prices ripple through the economy.
In recent weeks, however, several Fed policymakers – including Warsh himself – have hinted that if inflation does not show clear signs of slowing, the central bank will have to act by raising interest rates.
On Friday, new data on consumer inflation for August showed it remaining steady at 3.4% – no change from the month before, but still well above the Fed’s long-term 2% target.
Market expectations of a 25-basis-point rate hike on Wednesday surged in the wake of the data, with the probability at more than 85%, according to CME’s FedWatch tool.
The Fed last raised rates three years ago, when it was fighting surging inflation in the wake of the pandemic. Rates currently stand between 3.5% and 3.75%.
Trump has railed against the Fed over interest rates since taking office for a second term, launching unprecedented attacks on the central bank’s independence as he demands lower rates to spur economic activity.
The U.S. president has launched a criminal probe against previous Fed chair Jerome Powell, is attempting to fire another Fed governor, and has even threatened to cut trade ties with certain countries if the Fed raises rates.
Warsh was appointed by Trump, and analysts say this is his first real test since taking office: Will the Fed raise rates to combat inflation, or hold steady in line with what the White House prefers?
“This is the test. This is what comes with that job, and now he has to decide how to handle it,” said David Wessel, senior fellow at the Brookings Institution.
“He’s either going to completely disappoint the markets, or he runs the risk that he’s going to anger Donald Trump.”
The Fed’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), with its 12 voting members, will announce its decision after a two-day meeting on Wednesday at 2 p.m. (6 p.m. GMT).
‘Costly medicine’
“It’s quite likely that the Fed will raise interest rates next week,” said Claudia Sahm, chief economist at investment firm New Century Advisors, who previously worked at the Fed.
But “it’s not a done deal,” she cautioned in comments to Agence France-Presse (AFP). “This is a difficult decision for them to make.”
Raising interest rates would increase borrowing costs across the board for the U.S. economy, acting as a brake on further investment and consumption activity.
Sahm warned that such a move was “not a magic wand and is a costly medicine.”
She said the Fed could still hold rates steady rather than administer that medicine, but it would have to explain its decision clearly to markets.
“If they surprise markets and they can’t explain why they’re surprising markets, then Wednesday afternoon will be pretty messy,” she said.
Since taking office, Warsh has changed the way the Fed communicates about its decisions, advocating for less transparency into the process as he thinks it locks policymakers into courses of action that may need to be adjusted.
Investors have had mixed reactions to the cut in what is known as “forward guidance,” with analysts saying it has introduced more uncertainty into how financial markets price in inflation and interest rate expectations.
Warsh has advocated in the past for lower interest rates due to expected productivity gains from AI technology, but in recent weeks, he has doubled down on the Fed’s mandate to bring inflation down.
“There’s always been this doubt about whether Kevin Warsh is going to be like his predecessors and do what’s right for the economy, even if it’s politically inconvenient,” said Wessel of Brookings.
“If he raises rates now and Trump goes ballistic, he will have established his credibility as an independent Fed chair for the rest of his term.”
Türkiye, Azerbaijan, Georgia and Bulgaria could sign an intergovernmental agreement in November to advance a regional project for cross-border transmission and trade of green electricity, Energy and Natural Resources Minister Alparslan Bayraktar said Friday.
Speaking at the Azerbaijan-Türkiye Energy Forum in Baku, Bayraktar said the deal could be signed during the COP31 climate conference, which will be held in southern Antalya in November.
The Green Electricity Transmission and Trade Project, bringing together Türkiye, Azerbaijan, Georgia and Bulgaria, represents an important regional vision, the minister said.
He described the project as the “TANAP of electricity,” referring to the Trans-Anatolian Natural Gas Pipeline, and said it should be viewed not simply as an infrastructure project but as a strategic step toward long-term regional energy cooperation based on mutual benefit.
“We want to move this important project to the next stage as soon as possible,” Bayraktar said. “At COP31 in Antalya, we want to crown this project with an important signing process, perhaps through an intergovernmental agreement signed by our heads of state or by us.”
With electrification becoming an increasingly important part of the global energy agenda, the project would be an important initiative that Türkiye and Azerbaijan could present to the world, he added.
Bayraktar said Türkiye’s infrastructure and strategic location had made it one of the region’s key energy hubs and that the country was diversifying regional energy infrastructure through interconnection and other new projects.
Such efforts would continue to contribute to the energy security of Türkiye and Azerbaijan as well as that of the wider region, particularly Europe, he said.
“We believe that every new step we take in the energy sector brings our countries a little closer together,” Bayraktar said, adding that energy cooperation would continue to contribute to the two countries’ shared prosperity and regional development.
Bayraktar meanwhile also said initial studies had been completed for a planned electricity connection between Türkiye and Azerbaijan’s Nakhchivan region, with technical assessments identifying the most feasible option.
System operators are conducting additional feasibility studies to prepare the project for implementation, he said. He did not give a construction timetable.
The connection would improve electricity supply reliability and deepen energy cooperation between the two countries, Bayraktar said.
Interconnected grids can strengthen supply security, improve the use of resources, accommodate more renewable energy and open new opportunities for electricity trade, he said.
Cooperation with Azerbaijan now extends beyond oil and natural gas to mining, renewable energy, energy efficiency and electricity markets, transmission and distribution, said Bayraktar.
Türkiye is relying on eight factors that could reinforce its disinflation drive and help shift inflation from a recent period of relative stability back toward a sustained decline in price growth.
The conflict in the Middle East, other geopolitical tensions, uncertainty over global trade and rising cost pressures have caused inflation in Türkiye to level off in recent months.
The developments that are outlined in Türkiye’s 2027-2029 Medium-Term Program (MTP) are expected to help give fresh momentum to disinflation through the remainder of this year and put inflation back on a downward trajectory.
The disinflation process, which began in June 2024, has continued with the support of policies implemented particularly over the past year, leading to a significant improvement in the inflation outlook.
A tight monetary policy stance, support from fiscal and income policies, more moderate domestic demand and an improvement in inflation expectations have all contributed to the process.
Annual inflation, which stood at around 75% in the summer of 2024, eased to 31.51% this August.
Wars, trade uncertainty slow disinflation
The disinflation process has nevertheless been slowed by wars in Türkiye’s region and uncertainty surrounding global trade.
The Iran war and its repercussions emerged as the main adverse factor affecting inflation dynamics during the January-August period, while other geopolitical developments, global trade uncertainty, agricultural supply conditions and rising cost pressures contributed to a temporary leveling-off in inflation.
Despite these pressures, the government expects disinflation to accelerate particularly in the remainder of this year and into 2027.
The MTP projects inflation at 28.4% at the end of this year, 21% in 2027, 13.5% in 2028 and 9% in 2029.
The program’s main objective is to maintain a determined and uninterrupted downward trend, break inflation inertia and bring price growth down to single digits.
8 developments
According to the road map, the government identifies eight developments as key to achieving its inflation targets:
Maintaining a determined monetary policy stance Stronger support from fiscal policy Continued rebalancing of domestic demand Preserving stability in the Turkish lira Continued improvement in inflation expectations Gradual weakening of inertia in services inflation Stronger impact from supply-side measures targeting housing and food Normalization in energy prices, easing cost pressures
Türkiye recorded the first current account surplus in nine months in July, official data showed Friday, as strong services revenues and an improvement in the trade deficit supported the external balance.
Data from the Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye (CBRT) showed the current account balance posted a $36 million surplus in July. The balance last posted a surplus in October 2025, when it stood at $477 million.
The current account excluding gold and energy registered a $4.97 billion surplus, compared with a $1.4 billion surplus a month earlier, according to the data.
The balance of payments-defined foreign trade deficit stood at $5.58 billion in July.
On an annualized basis, Türkiye’s current-account deficit was about $40.7 billion in July, while the balance of payments-defined foreign trade deficit stood at $77.2 billion.
Services, meanwhile, generated a net surplus of $63.5 billion, partially offsetting deficits of $25.2 billion in primary income and $1.9 billion in secondary income.
Services remained a key contributor to the monthly balance, posting net inflows of $8.23 billion in July; travel, under services, generated net revenue of $5.97 billion, while transportation contributed $2.89 billion.
The improvement came as global economic uncertainty remained elevated amid risks stemming from the Middle East, with higher energy prices linked to geopolitical tensions emerging as a key threat to the global outlook.
Exporters’ strong position
Treasury and Finance Minister Mehmet Şimşek said exporters had maintained their position in global markets despite rising uncertainty and cost pressures in global trade, supported by product and market diversification, strong production infrastructure and their ability to adapt quickly to changing conditions.
In a post on the social media platform X, he said resilient services exports were also supporting the external balance and that further steps would be taken to strengthen exporters’ competitiveness.
Şimşek added that structural transformation policies aimed at strengthening high-technology and value-added production would continue, helping Türkiye improve its competitiveness and supply security in response to changes in global trade and geopolitical developments.
On the financing side, portfolio investments recorded a net inflow of $5.84 billion in July, the CBRT data showed.
Non-residents made net purchases of $1.97 billion in equities and investment funds and $2.37 billion in government domestic debt securities. They also recorded net purchases of securities issued abroad by Turkish banks and the general government worth $914 million and $1.71 billion, respectively.
Direct investment posted a net inflow of $514 million during the month. Non-resident direct investment inflows amounted to $1.15 billion, while residents’ external assets increased by $640 million.
Türkiye’s official reserves increased by $14.25 billion in July, the data also showed.
Services key supporter
Kutay Gözgör, research director at Kuveyt Türk Investment, said strong services revenues during the summer season and a monthly improvement in the trade deficit had supported the current account balance.
He described the sharp increase in the current account excluding gold and energy as a positive signal for the underlying trend in the economy.
“The increase in travel revenues, particularly with the effect of the tourism season, as well as the recovery in transportation revenues supported the services balance,” Gözgör told Anadolu Agency (AA). “In addition, the monthly narrowing of the foreign trade deficit was decisive in the current account posting a surplus.”
Gözgör said energy prices and geopolitical developments remained the main risks to the outlook.
He noted that imports rose 10.5% year-over-year in August, with higher energy prices playing a prominent role, while geopolitical risks stemming from the Iran war could put further upward pressure on oil and natural gas prices and widen the trade and current account deficits in the remainder of the year.
Market expectations put Türkiye’s 2026 year-end current account deficit at around $51 billion, while the latest CBRT Market Participants Survey showed an expectation of about $50.1 billion.
Kuveyt Türk Investment maintains its forecast for a $52.9 billion deficit, based on an assumption of Brent crude averaging $84 a barrel.
Brent crude futures were last down $3.45, or 3.21%, to $104.18 a barrel at 1132 GMT Friday. But oil prices remained on course for a weekly gain of more than 8%, as attacks along Middle East shipping routes stoked concerns about prolonged supply disruptions.
Ismet Demirkol, founder of Pariterium Consultancy, said tourism revenues remained crucial to Türkiye’s current account balance.
Although the Iran war had weighed on tourism revenues, a recovery in recent months, combined with seasonal effects, had supported tourism activity and the current account, he said.
Demirkol added that exports of higher-value-added products, particularly technology products, would be increasingly important for improving the external balance.
He also highlighted renewable energy investment, saying greater use of green energy could reduce Türkiye’s structural reliance on oil, natural gas and coal and contribute to a longer-term goal of running current account surpluses.
Inflation in the United States gained pace last month as gas prices spiked in the wake of renewed fighting in the Middle East, underscoring the affordability challenges that are top of mind for many voters with midterm elections now just seven weeks away.
The consumer price index rose 3.4% last month compared with a year ago, the Labor Department said Friday, the same as in July. But on a monthly basis, inflation quickened, as costs jumped 0.4% from July to August, up from an increase of just 0.1% the previous month.
The figures show that inflation remains stubbornly elevated, more than five years after prices first soared as the economy emerged from the COVID pandemic. Friday’s report increases pressure on the inflation-fighters at the Federal Reserve (Fed) to boost the benchmark interest rate at a meeting next week, which could lift mortgage and auto loan costs in the months ahead.
Fed Chair Kevin Warsh and other officials “signaled that interest rates can remain on hold only if disinflation continues and today’s August report did not deliver that,” said Kathy Bostjancic, chief economist at Nationwide.
Worsening inflation isn’t all due to spiking gas costs. Prices for appliances, car repairs, and wireless phone services also jumped last month. And economists worry that more expensive fuel can spill into other parts of the economy. For example, diesel prices have hit record highs above $6 a gallon, which pushes up the cost of shipping for groceries and other goods delivered by truck.
Airline tickets rose 2.7% on a monthly basis, according to the new data, and have soared more than 23% from a year earlier.
Excluding the volatile food and energy categories, core prices were 2.4% higher in August than a year ago, down slightly from July’s 2.5% and the third straight decline. But on a monthly basis, core prices rose 0.3% from July to August, the largest increase since April.
The larger-than-expected monthly increase in core prices will likely embolden those Fed officials who have pushed for higher interest rates. Wall Street investors now see a more than 80% chance that the Fed will increase rates next week, according to CME FedWatch, a 10-point jump from Thursday.
The Trump administration is seeking to counter voter concerns about high prices and rising interest rates.
President Donald Trump on Wednesday promised $5,000 payments to every American adult if the GOP keeps a majority in Congress, a move that would require congressional approval and could stoke inflation. And Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has stepped up buybacks of Treasury bonds in an effort to keep longer-term interest rates lower. Yet on Thursday the yield on the 10-year Treasury reached a nearly three-year high, though it declined in early trading Friday to a still-elevated 4.9%.
Gas prices jumped 3.9% just from July to August, Friday’s report said, leaving gas prices more than 27% higher than a year earlier. Prices at the pump have jumped further this month, which means inflation is likely to worsen next month. The nationwide average cost of a gallon of gas on Friday leapt more than 7% from a month ago to $4.30.
In addition to rising plane tickets, hotel room prices climbed 2.4% just from July to August and are 3.2% more expensive than a year ago. Wireless phone services, appliances, and car repairs also got more expensive last month.
Apparel and grocery prices were unchanged from July to August, providing some relief to consumers, though eggs moved 2.9% higher last month. They are still down sharply from a year earlier.
Many economists and Federal Reserve officials have long considered higher gas prices one of several “one-time” shocks that are lifting inflation, along with tariffs and surging investment in AI data centers. For months, the hope has been that as the war against Iran wound down, and the effects of tariffs faded, inflation would grind lower.
Yet there are few signs of the Iran war cooling, and even Trump has said gas prices won’t retreat until after the midterm elections in November. And while Trump’s trade fight with Canada will impact a small number of imports, it is a reminder that tariffs remain a threat that could push up other costs.
“This is not one and done,” said Kathy Bostjancic, chief economist at Nationwide. “It’s unclear when tensions in the Middle East are going to settle down. … This seems like it could be a prolonged disruption.”
While core prices are rising more slowly than overall prices, more expensive oil and gas could spread through more of the economy. Pricier jet fuel will likely push airfares even higher, and more expensive diesel will raise shipping costs, which could make groceries and other goods shipped by train and truck more expensive. On Thursday, a wholesale price report showed a jump in chemical prices, likely a result of more expensive oil.
Friday’s report has spurred many economists to pencil in a rate hike at the Fed’s meeting next week. Chair Warsh suggested he was leaning toward a rate hike in a high-profile speech two weeks ago, but he did not commit to doing so at a specific time.
Warsh has said he doesn’t want to tip his hand about his next moves, leaving some uncertainty going into the meeting.
The Fed left its key rate unchanged at its last policy meeting in late July, but three officials voted in favor of hiking by a quarter point, which would have increased it to about 3.9% from 3.6%.
Anthropic broke up attempts to use its Claude models to develop biological weapons and carry out a suspected Russia-linked cyber espionage campaign against Ukraine, the AI heavyweight said in a report published Thursday.
It also accused Chinese competitors of hacking attempts aimed at extracting Claude’s capabilities in its latest Threat Intelligence report, which documented malicious use of its technology over the past eight months.
A growing number of illegal hacking attempts by rogue AI agents, along with concerns over the technology’s risks voiced by industry insiders, have increased the pressure on leading pioneers in the field, raising the prospect of more regulation.
Two Anthropic researchers warned this week that rapidly progressing artificial intelligence could lead to the extinction of the human race in the not-too-distant future.
Missiles, drones and biological weapons
In its report, Anthropic said it has long been a concern that AI models might one day reach the level of capability where they could help make existing pathogens more dangerous or create entirely new ones.
It documented five examples of scientists using its models in ways that could support biological weapons development.
In one case, a researcher in a region unsupported by Anthropic employed virtual private server infrastructure to access Claude and for weeks used it to plan avian influenza mammalian-adaptation experiments.
Regions not supported by Anthropic include countries like Russia, China and North Korea, among others.
After detecting the misuse, it banned the accounts involved in such research and incorporated its findings into its frontier model safeguards, enforcement, and threat intelligence processes.
Anthropic did not identify the institutions, the countries where they are based, or the specific biological agents and research techniques involved.
It also identified what it called “new categories of threat actors” misusing Claude. That included using the platform to “develop software for conventional weapons, including firearms, missiles, armed drones, bombs, and other munitions, as well as the targeting and control systems that operate them.”
The report detailed incidents of operators in China, Russia and Yemen using Claude to develop software for weapons design and development, or to support intelligence gathering and procurement related to weapons programs.
Rapid improvements in Anthropic’s models have raised new risks, Jacob Klein, its head of threat intelligence, told Reuters.
“A year ago, let’s say you wanted to optimize a drone or optimize the software on a missile, the models just wouldn’t be as good at that task as they are now,” he said.
Russian hackers use Anthropic AI against Ukraine officials
Anthropic found that cybercriminals and state-backed hackers were increasingly using AI to orchestrate and execute large portions of cyberattacks, with humans often serving as overseers rather than hands-on operators.
“The use of AI went beyond simple questions and responses from a chatbot but rather involved the use of multi-agent frameworks,” it said.
One hacking group allegedly ran phishing, hotel Wi-Fi hijacking and WhatsApp-takeover operations against targets in the Ukrainian government, military and diplomatic sectors, using AI at nearly every stage, Anthropic said.
The group’s tradecraft was consistent with Russia-based threat actor Midnight Blizzard, which the U.S. government has previously linked to Russia’s SVR foreign intelligence service.
The group allegedly used AI to build a system that automatically detected when its malware was flagged by security defenses and rewrote the code until it evaded detection.
Anthropic said it also detected and disrupted activity linked to affiliates of the ShinyHunters collective, currently among the most prolific cybercrime enterprises, which is linked to attacks on major corporations around the world.
Chinese AI labs run attacks to extract Claude capabilities
Anthropic said it had disrupted attacks from seven China-based labs, including Alibaba, Moonshot, DeepSeek and Xiaomi, during the period covered by the report.
Operators it linked to Alibaba ran what Anthropic called the largest “illicit distillation” attack, allegedly aimed at extracting the Claude models’ capabilities and using them to improve the Chinese tech firm’s Qwen models.
Anthropic said it observed more than 151 million exchanges it attributed to Alibaba between May and July 2026, peaking at nearly 3 million per day from more than 3,500 accounts it described as fraudulent.
Distillation refers to the process of training smaller AI models using output from larger, more expensive models in a bid to lower the costs of training a new AI tool.
In another misuse of its technology, Anthropic said Kimi chatbot creator Moonshot and DeepSeek allegedly routed live customer conversations, which sometimes included sensitive information, through Claude and used its responses as training data.
China’s Foreign Ministry said it was not aware of the Anthropic report and that the government maintains that AI should be developed for good and opposes distortion of facts and smears against the country.
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