Economy
Trump shifts US military aid toward Latin American allies
The Trump administration is redirecting tens of millions of dollars in U.S. military assistance away from countries in Europe and the Middle East, steering the funds toward conservative-led governments in Central and South America as Washington reshapes its foreign aid priorities.
The State Department on Tuesday notified Congress that it will reprogram $52 million in foreign military financing from Slovakia, North Macedonia, Tunisia and Iraq to Panama, Peru, Ecuador and Colombia.
Secretary of State Marco Rubio visited Colombia, Ecuador and Peru last week and pledged them additional support as the Trump administration has prioritized the Western Hemisphere in its foreign policy with an emphasis on combating drug trafficking and illegal immigration.
Foreign military financing provides recipient countries with U.S. taxpayer dollars to allow them to purchase military equipment from American defense contractors.
UniCredit CEO Andrea Orcel is apparently pushing for a clean sweep as the Italian lender moves toward taking over Commerzbank, with a report saying Tuesday he wants Bettina Orlopp out as CEO and opposes Berlin holding on to two supervisory board seats.
UniCredit also wants Commerzbank Chair Jens Weidmann to leave, Reuters reported, citing sources with knowledge of the matter.
German Finance Minister Lars Klingbeil and Orcel met Monday on the Italian bank’s takeover plans, a turning point in the two-year battle for control of one of Germany’s biggest banks after Berlin failed in its attempt to stymie a takeover. Both called the meeting “constructive.”
UniCredit did not respond to a request for comment.
A spokesperson for Commerzbank dismissed any changes in management, saying “The board of Commerzbank AG has running contracts, the supervisory board is elected by the general assembly, and there’s full alignment on strategy.”
Germany’s Finance Ministry declined to comment further, after saying Monday it wants to keep two board seats.
It was unclear if the leadership roles or UniCredit’s opposition to the German government maintaining two board seats were discussed at Monday’s meeting in Berlin.
“We are currently represented on Commerzbank’s supervisory board and will continue to be,” Klingbeil told reporters Tuesday, adding: “And, naturally, if and when the time comes, we also expect to be represented on UniCredit’s board.”
New shareholder representatives
Orlopp said last month she was not feeling pressure to give up her role after the months-long ownership battle over Germany’s second-largest bank, which both the Commerzbank CEO and Weidmann have said should remain independent.
Orcel repeatedly said over the summer he wanted to engage with Commerzbank employee representatives, local authorities and central government, leaving out Orlopp and Weidmann.
UniCredit is in a position to call an extraordinary shareholder meeting and appoint new shareholder representatives at Commerzbank, he said.
Germany won the right to appoint two board members when it rescued Commerzbank in 2009 during the global financial crisis.
It retains a stake of 13.3% and it is not clear how UniCredit could block Berlin from retaining two members while it remains a shareholder.
In addition to the board seats, Berlin has set out a number of other demands relating to a UniCredit takeover, including Commerzbank remaining listed on the stock exchange, keeping its base in Frankfurt and continuing to finance German medium-sized companies at home and abroad.
After months of resistance, German government officials and Commerzbank executives softened their stance on a potential deal after UniCredit amassed a stake of nearly 50%.
Now German officials are hoping to protect jobs as well as the brand of a bank that plays a critical role in financing the medium-sized companies in Europe’s largest economy, whose government is in the throes of a political crisis.
A combination of UniCredit and Commerzbank would create a bank with more than 1.3 trillion euros ($1.5 trillion) in assets across two of the eurozone’s largest economies.
Türkiye launched an operation across 22 provinces Tuesday against fresh produce distributors suspected of manipulating vegetable and fruit prices and making illicit profits, with detention warrants issued for 41 company executives.
The Istanbul Chief Public Prosecutor’s Office said 109 workplaces and residences were being searched simultaneously as part of the investigation into pricing in the fresh produce distribution market.
The suspects are accused of showing product supply as lower than it actually was and costs as higher than their real levels, allegedly creating inflated costs through forged producer receipts and manipulating fresh fruit and vegetable prices upward.
Justice Minister Akın Gürlek said the investigation was examining the “price journey of products from the field to the market.”
Authorities obtained data from the Trade Ministry’s Hall Registration System and the Agriculture and Forestry Ministry’s Farmer Registration System, while the Tax Inspection Board under the Treasury and Finance Ministry prepared a comprehensive report, Gürlek said on the social media platform X.
The government is “resolutely continuing our fight against crimes that disrupt the economic order and generate unjust profits through price manipulation, while protecting the labor of our producers, the budgets of our citizens and the fair functioning of the market,” the minister wrote.
As part of the probe, officials took statements from around 1,029 farmers to determine the prices at which products left producers and the conditions under which they reached suppliers.
The investigation found indications that some major suppliers operating in wholesale markets had used their market dominance to report product supply below actual levels and costs above their real levels, Gürlek said.
The companies allegedly created false costs by issuing forged producer receipts and used these methods to manipulate fresh produce prices upward and make illicit profits.
The investigation is being conducted under charges including influencing prices, violating the Tax Procedure Law, forgery of documents and laundering assets derived from crime.
“We will not allow any stage of the chain – from the field to the table – to be turned into a source of unjust profit at the expense of our producers’ labor and our citizens’ budgets,” said Gürlek.
The annual consumer price index (CPI) in Türkiye maintained a downward trend in August and eased to 31.5%, from 31.8% a month ago, while monthly inflation was 1.84%.
Despite energy and education pushing headline inflation higher, growth in food prices was relatively benign.
Annual food inflation cooled to 33.79% last month, down from 37.53% in July, according to official data. Monthly food inflation came in at 0.22%.
The slow monthly increase in food prices was largely driven by a 2% decline in unprocessed food prices, particularly fresh fruits and vegetables.
Despite the cooling monthly trajectory, food remains the largest single contributor to the annual CPI figure.
Average diesel prices in the United States hit a fresh record high of just under $6.27 a gallon Tuesday, the motorists’ association AAA said, adding pressure on President Donald Trump ahead of the midterm congressional elections.
The price of the fuel used largely in road hauling, agriculture and construction hit $6.2694, according to the association, as the Middle East war tightens supplies and Ukraine strikes Russian refineries.
“The diesel and gas oil markets remain extremely tight,” Arne Lohmann Rasmussen, chief analyst at Global Risk Management, said in a client note Tuesday.
“A halt to Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries would help the diesel balance, but the shortage of refined products from the Middle East matters far more,” he said.
“Diesel and gas oil prices and cracks only really surged after the start of the war with Iran,” Rasmussen added, referring to “crack spreads” – the price difference between crude oil and refined products.
Average U.S. diesel prices jumped above $6 a gallon for the first time Friday, having surged from $3.7577 a gallon at the start of the US-Iran war, according to the AAA.
It had reached a record $5.8159 a gallon in June 2022, a few months after the start of the Russia-Ukraine conflict.
Oil prices climbed Tuesday after attacks on Saudi Arabian energy infrastructure left the kingdom’s crucial pipeline offline, raising fears that damage to energy infrastructure and transport routes could take longer to repair.
Brent crude futures were 21 cents, or 0.2%, higher at $105.89 a barrel by 1148 GMT after hitting a session high of $108.43, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures were up 90 cents, or 0.89%, at $102.29 a barrel after rising as far as $104.21 earlier in the session.
Concerns over oil supplies intensified after Iran-backed Houthi forces in Yemen launched fresh attacks on Saudi Arabia Monday, while Gulf Arab states postponed planned discussions with Iran.
“Fresh attacks by the Houthis targeting Saudi Arabia may be influencing oil market investors’ expectations about the severity and duration of the conflict,” said Hamad Hussain, senior climate and commodities economist at Capital Economics.
The Houthis said Monday they fired dozens of missiles and drones at a military air base in Khamis Mushait in southern Saudi Arabia, targeting aircraft hangars, radar systems, runways and ammunition depots in retaliation for Saudi airstrikes in Yemen.
This followed attacks Friday on Saudi Arabia, which Riyadh blamed on Iranian-backed fighters in Iraq, that disrupted the country’s East-West pipeline, which allows oil exports to bypass the blockaded Strait of Hormuz, through which about a fifth of global oil supplies previously passed.
Saudi Arabia could exhaust crude available for export within days unless the East-West pipeline resumes operations, according to buyers and traders. The pipeline strike threatened up to 4% of global oil supply.
“The recent attack may be more severe and could threaten the remaining 2mb/d of recent Yanbu exports, with the latest repair assessments ranging from ‘very soon’ to eight weeks,” Goldman Sachs said in a note.
The attacks on oil infrastructure marked a meaningful escalation of the conflict and increased the probability of Brent rising above $120 a barrel, Goldman Sachs said, citing a scenario in which average Gulf oil output in 2027 remains 4 million barrels per day below pre-war levels.
Commodity vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz dropped Monday to four, down from 10 a day earlier, preliminary data from Kpler showed Tuesday, raising concerns about a route that carried about a fifth of global oil supplies before the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran kicked off on Feb. 28.
Oman’s Maritime Security Center said Tuesday that the Panama-flagged oil tanker “El Gaia” was being towed to an Omani port after a fire broke out in its engine room following an attack.
“In the absence of an adjustment in demand or greater oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz, several weeks of the East-West pipeline being closed could lift Brent crude prices toward $130 per barrel,” Hussain said.
Separately, half of Russia’s six top diesel-producing refineries were forced to significantly cut back or completely halt output in September due to damage sustained in drone attacks, according to Reuters calculations based on data from fuel market participants.
Oil prices rose more than 1% Tuesday after attacks on Saudi Arabian energy infrastructure left the kingdom’s crucial pipeline offline, raising fears that damage to energy infrastructure and transport routes could take longer to repair.
Brent crude futures rose $1.67, or 1.58%, to $107.35 a barrel at 1002 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures were up $2.14, or 2.11%, at $103.53 a barrel.
Concerns over oil supplies intensified after Iran-backed Houthi forces in Yemen launched fresh attacks on Saudi Arabia Monday, while Gulf Arab states postponed planned discussions with Iran.
“Fresh attacks by the Houthis targeting Saudi Arabia may be influencing oil market investors’ expectations about the severity and duration of the conflict,” said Hamad Hussain, senior climate and commodities economist at Capital Economics.
The Houthis said Monday they fired dozens of missiles and drones at a military air base in Khamis Mushait in southern Saudi Arabia, targeting aircraft hangars, radar systems, runways and ammunition depots in retaliation for Saudi airstrikes in Yemen.
This followed attacks Friday on Saudi Arabia, which Riyadh blamed on Iranian-backed fighters in Iraq, that disrupted the country’s East-West pipeline, which allows oil exports to bypass the blockaded Strait of Hormuz, through which about a fifth of global oil supplies previously passed.
Saudi Arabia could exhaust crude available for export within days unless the East-West pipeline resumes operations, according to buyers and traders. The pipeline strike threatened up to 4% of global oil supply.
“The recent attack may be more severe and could threaten the remaining 2mb/d of recent Yanbu exports, with the latest repair assessments ranging from ‘very soon’ to eight weeks,” Goldman Sachs said in a note.
The attacks on oil infrastructure marked a meaningful escalation of the conflict and increased the probability of Brent rising above $120 a barrel, Goldman Sachs said, citing a scenario in which average Gulf oil output in 2027 remains 4 million barrels per day below pre-war levels.
Commodity vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz dropped Monday to four, down from 10 a day earlier, preliminary data from Kpler showed Tuesday, raising concerns about a route that carried about a fifth of global oil supplies before the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran kicked off on Feb. 28.
Oman’s Maritime Security Centre said Tuesday that the Panama-flagged oil tanker “El Gaia” was being towed to an Omani port after a fire broke out in its engine room following an attack.
“In the absence of an adjustment in demand or greater oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz, several weeks of the East-West pipeline being closed could lift Brent crude prices toward $130 per barrel,” Hussain said.
Separately, half of Russia’s six top diesel-producing refineries were forced to significantly cut back or completely halt output in September due to damage sustained in drone attacks, according to Reuters calculations based on data from fuel market participants.
Global stocks extended their decline on Tuesday following the previous session’s selloff, while U.S. Treasury yields climbed to their highest level since 2007 as investors worried that oil prices staying above $100 could intensify the energy shock.
U.S. yields have climbed over the past month as investors grapple with rising rate expectations, heavy debt issuance, solid economic growth and worries about the country’s long-term fiscal outlook.
Markets were shifting their focus to the Federal Reserve (Fed), with traders wagering on a quarter-point rate hike and indications that further policy tightening lies ahead, although Fed Chair Kevin Warsh dislikes giving any guidance about the rate path.
MSCI’s main world stocks index fell 0.28% on Tuesday, after dropping 0.65% the day before.
Europe’s STOXX 600 was down 0.89% to 630.30, its lowest level since June 12. The European tech stock index fell 0.40%, after shedding more than 2% the day before.
Nasdaq futures were down 0.44% and S&P 500 futures fell 0.45%.
Taiwan shed 0.77% while Japan’s Nikkei ended flat after swinging between gains and losses.
Oil prices were up, with benchmark Brent crude futures above $107 per barrel as Yemen’s Iran-aligned Houthis launched a new wave of attacks on Saudi Arabia and were digging into positions on the western coast of Yemen along the Red Sea.
“Several weeks ago, there may not have been a strong reason to believe that crude would rally further, but there is now: Iran’s strategic military doctrine has shifted toward pre-emptive attack,” Thierry Wizman, global forex and rates strategist at Macquarie Group, said.
“And the U.S. administration may have no choice but to move back to kinetic war after the midterm elections,” he added.
Central banks in focus
U.S. 10-year Treasury yields hit peaks not seen since 2007 on Tuesday as traders priced in a series of rate increases from the Federal Reserve.
German Bund yields, the euro area’s benchmark, rose to their highest level in over 17 years at 3.56%, as traders boosted bets on European Central Bank (ECB) rate hikes, with a depo rate seen at 3.45% at the end of 2027, from the current 2.50%.
“The market sees a total of nearly four rate hikes (from the Fed) through the end of next year,” John Velis, head of Americas strategy at BNY, said.
“We think that by then the economy won’t be able to handle rates that high for very long, and the Fed will be contemplating dialing back its restrictiveness toward the second half of the year,” he added.
A hawkish repricing of the Fed’s rate path supported the dollar, but some strategists said higher yields were also stoking concerns about a deeper correction in risk assets, prompting investors to seek refuge in the U.S. currency.
The dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of currencies, rose 0.15% to 99.65. The European single currency was down 0.1% on the day at $1.1537, while the dollar rose 0.40% against the yen to 154.95 .
The Bank of Japan is widely expected to raise its interest rate by 25 basis points to 1.25% at the end of its two-day meeting on Friday and signal more tightening ahead. Policymakers are seeking to shore up the yen after intervention helped steer the currency away from a 40-year low.
Gold was slightly higher. Spot gold traded at $4,288 per ounce.
In cryptocurrencies, bitcoin fell 2.30% to $77,288.
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