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Türkiye analyzes effects of rising tensions on economy: Şimşek

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Treasury and Finance Minister Mehmet Şimşek said on Monday that they are analyzing the multidimensional effects of increasing geopolitical tensions on the Turkish economy and evaluating possible scenarios in detail.

“Our institutions are ready to take the necessary measures quickly and decisively, in strong coordination, to maintain stability in the markets and the healthy functioning of our economy,” Şimşek said in a social media post.

The minister asked the Turkish citizens not to believe in speculations made about the Turkish economy based on scenarios in case the Hormuz Strait is closed.

“With our program, we have significantly increased the resistance of our economy to shocks,” Şimşek noted.

“We are determined to fight inflation, and we will continue to take all necessary steps to ensure the continuation of disinflation,” he added.

The regional tensions in the Middle East escalated on June 13 when the U.S.-backed Israeli military conducted airstrikes on Iran, prompting Tehran to launch retaliatory attacks on Israel.

Israeli authorities said at least 25 people have been killed and hundreds injured since then in Iranian missile attacks.

Meanwhile, in Iran, at least 430 people have been killed and more than 3,500 wounded in the Israeli assault, according to the Iranian Health Ministry.

The conflict escalated further after the U.S. bombed Iran’s three nuclear facilities on Saturday.

The U.S. targeted the sites with six bunker-buster bombs dropped on the Fordo facility with B-2 stealth bombers, along with dozens of submarine-launched cruise missile strikes on the Natanz and Isfahan facilities.

The latest move by the U.S. sparked fears of Iran closing the Hormuz Strait, where 30% of the global crude oil and 20% of the liquefied natural gas (LNG) are transported.

Iran’s Parliament agreed to close the Strait of Hormuz on Sunday, waiting for a final decision from the Supreme National Security Council, Maj. Gen. Esmaeil Kowsari, a member of Parliament’s National Security Commission, said.

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Economy

Climate action key to protecting growth, prosperity: Turkish finance chief

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Climate action stands out not only as an environmental priority but also as an essential path for protecting growth, stability and prosperity, according to Treasury and Finance Minister Mehmet Şimşek.

“Climate action is not just about protecting the environment. It is about protecting growth, stability and prosperity,” the minister said at the Net Zero Delivery Summit, held as part of London Climate Action Week.

Şimşek said climate discussions over the past decade had focused mainly on targets and commitments, but the priority must now shift to implementation.

“Most countries already have ambitious targets. The real question is whether we can implement these plans at the speed and scale required,” he said.

He warned that the cost of inaction would be far higher than the cost of preventing climate-related disasters.

“If we fail to tackle climate change, the cost will be extremely high. Most studies show that the cost of inaction is many times greater than the cost of preventing a climate catastrophe,” he said.

Şimşek said developing countries, excluding China, are expected to need around $2.5 trillion annually by 2030 to meet their climate goals, while current climate finance flows stand at only about $200 billion a year.

“We are far from the scale required,” he said, adding that the issue is not a lack of capital but the need to mobilize it at scale and direct it toward investable climate projects.

“Climate risk is no longer a risk of the future. It is already an economic risk today. Moreover, this problem is not limited to individual countries; it is a global problem,” he said.

He noted that only about one-quarter of climate-related losses worldwide are insured, while the remaining burden falls on households, companies and governments.

The minister also said the global financial system needs a simpler, faster and more effective climate finance architecture, with lower capital costs, improved access to finance and stronger cooperation among public institutions, multilateral development banks and investors.

He recalled that countries agreed at COP29 in Baku on a new climate finance target of $300 billion annually by 2035 and set out a road map to mobilize $1.3 trillion.

“Now the real question is how we turn these commitments into concrete results. This is precisely where Türkiye hopes to contribute as this year’s COP31 president,” Şimşek said.

He said Türkiye aims to support implementation through its Climate Implementation Bridge initiative, which seeks to help countries turn climate priorities into investable project pipelines and connect them with financing.

On Türkiye’s COP31 priorities, Şimşek said electrification will be one of the central focus areas.

“Recent energy shocks have reminded us that energy security, affordability and sustainability can no longer be considered separately,” he said.

He said Türkiye has launched a global discussion on raising electricity’s share in final energy consumption from around 20% today to 35% by 2035.

Şimşek said Türkiye’s COP31 agenda also includes waste management, cities, oceans and youth engagement, while the COP31 Business Forum was launched this week with the Union of Chambers and Commodity Exchanges of Türkiye (TOBB), serving as the private sector representative.

The forum will convene again during New York Climate Week and later at COP31 in Antalya, while Istanbul will host Climate Finance Week in September, he said.

“What the world lacks is not commitments, but implementation. These commitments can only be realized through partnerships,” Şimşek noted.

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Economy

IMF approves $832M disbursement for Ivory Coast

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The International Monetary Fund (IMF) said Wednesday it’s prepared to make “immediate disbursement” of more than $800 million to the Ivory Coast as part of several aid programs.

The fund’s executive board reviewed and approved three programs, allowing Abidjan to borrow approximately $832.8 million.

The lender in a statement commended Ivory Coast authorities for “sustained reform efforts” that have “helped restore macroeconomic stability.”

For nearly 15 years, the country has posted strong growth rates – among the strongest in the region – and has regained stability after a decade of strife in the early 2000s.

The Washington-based banking organization expects growth to slow to %6 in 2026, down from %6.5 in 2025, reflecting economic repercussions of the Middle East war and heightened global uncertainty.

“Inflation, which declined to near zero in 2025, has begun to rebound and is projected to average %3.3 in 2026, driven by higher food and energy prices,” the IMF said in a statement.

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Economy

EU approves US tariff pact ahead of Trump deadline

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EU states gave their final approval Thursday to a year-old tariff deal with the United States, allowing it to enter into force ahead of a July 4 deadline set by U.S. President Donald Trump.

Struck between Trump and EU chief Ursula von der Leyen in July 2025, the deal sets levies of %15 on most of EU exports to the U.S., and zero tariffs for U.S. industrial goods coming into the 27-nation bloc.

But the EU had yet to fulfil its side of the accord – after Trump’s threats to Greenland and a U.S. Supreme Court decision striking down many of his tariffs fuelled months of delay.

The sign-off by member states – who had already agreed the deal in substance – clears the final legislative hurdle on the EU side, following parliament’s approval earlier this month.

The deal’s approval “confirms the EU’s commitment to a stable, predictable and mutually beneficial transatlantic trade relationship, while preserving the necessary guardrails to protect European economic interests,” an EU statement said.

Lawmakers added a series of safeguards, including giving the European Commission power to suspend the pact if the U.S. side fails to meet its commitments or acts to disrupt trade and investment.

Parliament also introduced an expiration date of end-2029, unless the agreement is renewed by then.

“Openness must go hand in hand with safeguarding our interests,” said Michael Damianos, the commerce minister for the Greek Cypriot administration which holds the EU’s rotating presidency.

“These measures achieve both, supporting stable and predictable trade flows with the U.S. while ensuring the EU can respond swiftly and proportionately when the deal is not respected or its interests are at stake,” he said.

The two texts enacting the EU side of the accord – removing duties on U.S. industrial goods and introducing preferential access for certain seafood and farm products – will formally take effect a day after publication in the EU’s official journal.

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Economy

ADB approves $175M loan for Türkiye’s municipal renewable projects

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The Asian Development Bank (ADB) said Wednesday it greenlighted a $175.48 million loan for Türkiye’s public development and investment bank, Ilbank, to support renewable energy investments by municipalities.

The financing will help fund the Municipal Renewable Energy Transition Program, which supports Türkiye’s target of reaching net-zero emissions by 2053.

The program will finance municipal solar and wind energy projects, including related substations, switchgear, switchyards and access roads. It aims to help metropolitan, provincial and district municipalities cut energy costs, decarbonize public buildings and improve energy resilience.

ADB said municipal buildings and infrastructure services account for 31% of electricity consumption and 30% of greenhouse gas emissions among municipalities in Türkiye.

The loan, together with $43 million in co-financing from Ilbank, is expected to accelerate renewable energy installations across the country and ease pressure on transmission and distribution grids.

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Economy

Undoing over 40 years of Iran sanctions won’t be easy or quick

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Tehran could potentially gain billions of dollars from a 60-day reprieve from U.S. sanctions announced earlier this week, ​but unwinding more than 40 years of broad restrictions poses legal, political and commercial challenges that could take years.

At issue is whether an interim U.S. deal with Iran can translate into lasting economic relief, given the complexity of dismantling a sanctions regime ⁠that spans U.S. law, international measures and private-sector risk concerns.

The U.N., ⁠the U.S. and the European Union have imposed sanctions and trade embargoes and have frozen assets since the late 1970s over Iran’s nuclear program, human rights violations and support for armed groups around the region.

Under a 14-point memorandum of understanding signed by the U.S. and Iran last week, Washington is to ​start abolishing all types of sanctions using a schedule to be forged in a final deal within 60 days, ​a ⁠period that can be extended.

On Monday, the U.S. Treasury issued a temporary general license allowing the production, delivery and sale of crude oil and petrochemical and petroleum products of Iranian origin through Aug. 21.

Removing the remaining sanctions – if it happens – would represent a stark change in U.S. policy toward the Middle East, which has long focused on curbing Iran’s influence and using financial pressure to weaken its theocratic government.

It would also be difficult, requiring executive action for some measures, approval by Congress for others and close coordination with the U.N. and other countries that have imposed their own sanctions. Companies, wary after decades of restrictions, could also blunt the impact.

“You have this tangled nest of sanctions, and it’s not just executive orders, it’s congressional sanctions,” said Juan Zarate, deputy national security adviser for combating terrorism under former President George W. Bush.

Congress is skeptical

Washington first sanctioned Iran in 1979, after revolutionary students seized the U.S. embassy in Tehran, holding diplomats hostage.

Since then, Congress has passed half a dozen sanctions laws and presidents have issued executive orders over Iran’s nuclear program and its support for groups the U.S. deems terrorist organizations, including Hamas, Hezbollah and Yemen’s Houthis.

Since early 2025, the Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) ⁠has ⁠imposed sanctions on more than 1,000 people, vessels and aircraft, according to Treasury data.

Delisting thousands of entities designated for sanctions would take OFAC at least a year, said Jeremy Paner, a partner at law firm Hughes Hubbard & Reed and a former U.S. sanctions official.

President Donald Trump can rescind executive orders issued on Iran, but some measures – including sanctions on Hamas and Hezbollah – are mandated by law and will have to be removed or amended by Congress, where the interim deal has already sparked sharp public criticism from his fellow Republican lawmakers.

Undoing 40 years of sanctions would be difficult, added Matt Zweig, managing director of policy at FDD Action, the lobbying arm of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies.

“Any attempt to comprehensively remove layer upon layer of sanctions will be like peeling back an onion – exposing the administration – not just to legal complexities but political risks,” said Zweig, a former aide on the House Foreign Affairs Committee.

The license issued on Monday could be worth up to $3 ⁠billion for Iran over two months, by some estimates.

That could swell to “at least tens of billions of dollars” if made permanent, erasing a discount on Iranian oil, allowing Tehran to sell to additional buyers beyond China, and increasing exports, said Edward Fishman, senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations. China now buys about 90% of Iranian oil, despite the sanctions.

The new license is broader than the one ​issued in March, calling for inclusion of not just oil and petroleum products, but also banking, insurance and transportation related to the oil trade, giving Tehran quicker access to ​its revenues.

“There are a number of thorny issues involved,” said Stephanie Connor, a former OFAC official now a partner with law firm Holland & Knight, adding that lifting sanctions could mean funds flowing to groups the U.S. considers a threat.

“Are we really going to let money start flowing to Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard ⁠Corps?” she asked, referring ‌to the powerful paramilitary ‌force that the U.S. has designated a foreign terrorist organization.

Wary companies

Banks, oil firms and insurers will face evolving regulations, tougher ⁠due diligence and exposure to sanctions-evasion risks tied to Iran’s links with countries such as China, North ‌Korea and Russia.

They also remain subject to separate sanctions from Britain, the U.N., the EU and others. “We’ve kind of beaten the markets up with the risk of doing business with or through Iran, so you ​can’t just flip a switch and say, ‘Oh, now it’s okay ⁠to do business with Iran,'” Zarate said.

Companies that deal with Iran would still face lawsuits from victims of attacks, who can ⁠sue investors and companies for aiding designated groups under the 2016 Justice Against Sponsors of Terrorism Act, which aides say is unlikely to be repealed.

Given such risks, ⁠companies may steer clear of working with Iran ​to escape legal and reputational risk as long as the Iranian government remains in power, said Brett Erickson, principal with Obsidian Risk Advisors.

“We’re not going to see massive multi-billion dollar commitments until things are far more cemented and politically stable,” he said.

“There’s just a long way to go.”



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Economy

Trump orders probe into oil firms, claiming prices stayed high

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U.S. President Donald Trump said on Wednesday he ordered a probe into major oil companies over high gasoline prices as he faces criticism over the impact of the Mideast war.

Global petroleum prices soared after Iran blocked the flow of oil through the vital Strait of Hormuz in response to U.S.-Israeli strikes in February.

“The big Oil Companies are not dropping their price at the pump commensurate with the sharply lower prices they are paying for Oil,” Trump wrote on Truth Social.

“Those prices are dropping like a rock! In other words, customers are being ‘gouged’,” he added.

Gasoline prices are a political issue in the United States, where fossil fuel-powered vehicles are many Americans’ primary means of transport.

Trump has faced criticism for launching the war and its impact on the fuel costs paid by millions of Americans as November’s congressional elections draw closer.

The president repeatedly predicted that fuel prices would “come down like a rock” after the conflict ended.

But economists dispute that claim, expecting oil prices to take months to return to pre-war levels.

Tehran and Washington have struck an initial deal that includes the resumption of oil tanker traffic through Hormuz, though issues like Iran’s nuclear program are still in dispute.

Gasoline prices are still above their pre-war levels, but have come down since the initial deal was announced.

The average price of a gallon (3.8 liters) of regular gasoline logged in at $3.93 on Tuesday, according to the AAA motor club.

Trump has faced backlash from Americans who accuse him of pouring billions of taxpayer dollars into the Middle East war while oil prices and inflation skyrocket in the United States.

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