Economy
Trump prevails for now, but his big bill may come at political cost
Former U.S. Presidents Barack Obama and Joe Biden had signature pieces of legislation in the form of the Affordable Care Act and the Inflation Reduction Act. President Donald Trump will have the tax cuts.
All were hailed in the moment and became ripe political targets in campaigns that followed. In Trump’s case, the tax cuts may almost become lost in the debates over other parts of the multitrillion-dollar bill that Democrats say will force poor Americans off their health care and overturn a decade or more of energy policy.
Through persuasion and browbeating, Trump forced nearly all congressional Republicans to line up behind his marquee legislation despite some of its unpalatable pieces.
He followed the playbook that had marked his life in business before politics. He focused on branding – labeling the legislation the “One Big, Beautiful Bill” – then relentlessly pushed to strong-arm it through Congress, solely on the votes of Republicans.
Victory to be tested
But Trump’s victory will soon be tested during the 2026 midterm elections, where Democrats plan to run on a durable theme: that the Republican president favors the rich on tax cuts over poorer people who will lose their health care.
Trump and Republicans argue that those who deserve coverage will retain it. Nonpartisan analysts, however, project significant increases of the number of uninsured. Meanwhile, the GOP’s promise that the bill will turbocharge the economy will be tested at a time of uncertainty and trade turmoil.
Trump has tried to counter the notion of favoring the rich with provisions that would reduce taxes for people paid in tips and receiving overtime pay, two kinds of earners who represent a small share of the workforce.
Extending the tax cuts from Trump’s first term that were set to expire if Congress failed to act meant he could also argue that millions of people would avoid a tax increase. To enact that and other expensive priorities, Republicans made steep cuts to Medicaid that ultimately belied Trump’s promise that those on government entitlement programs “won’t be affected.”
“The biggest thing is, he’s answering the call of the forgotten people. That’s why his No. 1 request was the no tax on tips, the no tax on overtime, tax relief for seniors,” said Representative Jason Smith, chairperson of the tax-writing House Ways and Means Committee. “I think that’s going to be the big impact.”
Presidents have seen their signature legislative accomplishments unraveled by their successors or become a significant political liability for their party in subsequent elections.
A central case for Biden’s reelection was that the public would reward the Democrat for his legislative accomplishments. That never bore fruit as he struggled to improve his poll numbers, driven down by concerns about his age and stubborn inflation.
Since taking office in January, Trump has acted to gut tax breaks meant to boost clean energy initiatives that were part of Biden’s landmark health care and climate bill.
Obama’s health overhaul, which the Democrat signed into law in March 2010, led to a political bloodbath in the midterms that fall. Its popularity only became potent when Republicans tried to repeal it in 2017.
Whatever political boost Trump may have gotten from his first-term tax cuts in 2017 did not help him in the 2018 midterms, when Democrats regained control of the House, or in 2020 when he lost to Biden.
“I don’t think there’s much, if any, evidence from recent or even not-so-recent history of the president’s party passing a big one-party bill and getting rewarded for it,” said Kyle Kondik, an elections analyst with the nonpartisan University of Virginia’s Center for Politics.
Democrats hope they can translate their policy losses into political gains.
During an Oval Office appearance in January, Trump pledged he would “love and cherish Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid.”
“We’re not going to do anything with that, other than if we can find some abuse or waste, we’ll do something,” Trump said. “But the people won’t be affected. It will only be more effective and better.”
Medicaid, food assistance
That promise is far removed from what Trump and the Republican Party ultimately chose to do, paring back not only Medicaid but also food assistance for the poor to make the math work on their sweeping bill. It would force 11.8 million more people to become uninsured by 2034, according to the Congressional Budget Office, whose estimates the GOP has dismissed.
“In Trump’s first term, Democrats in Congress prevented bad outcomes. They didn’t repeal the (Affordable Care Act), and we did COVID-19 relief together. This time is different,” said Senator Brian Schatz. “Hospitals will close, people will die, the cost of electricity will go up, and people will go without food.”
Senator Thom Tillis repeatedly argued the legislation would lead to drastic coverage losses in his home state and others, leaving them vulnerable to political attacks similar to what Democrats faced after they enacted “Obamacare.” With his warnings unheeded, Tillis announced he would not run for reelection after he opposed advancing the bill and enduring Trump’s criticism.
“If there is a political dimension to this, it is the extraordinary impact that you’re going to have in states like California, blue states with red districts,” Tillis said. “The narrative is going to be overwhelmingly negative in states like California, New York, Illinois, and New Jersey.”
Even Senator Lisa Murkowski, who eventually became the decisive vote in the Senate that ensured the bill’s passage, said the legislation needed more work and she urged the House to revise it. Lawmakers there did not.
Early polling suggests that Trump’s bill is deeply unpopular, including among independents and a healthy share of Republicans. White House officials said their own research does not reflect that.
So far, it’s only Republicans celebrating the victory. That seems fine with the president.
In a speech in Iowa after the bill passed, he said Democrats only opposed it because they “hated Trump.” That didn’t bother him, he said, “because I hate them, too.”
President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan on Friday announced a fresh increase in export financing, raising the annual limit for rediscount loans to TL5 billion while unveiling a target of boosting Türkiye’s exports to distant markets to $50 billion by 2028.
Speaking at the Turkish Exporters Assembly’s (TIM) 33rd Ordinary General Assembly and Export Champions Awards Ceremony in Istanbul, Erdoğan said the government would continue supporting exporters through expanded financing as Türkiye seeks to maintain its export-driven growth.
The president said the annual limit for rediscount loans, which had previously been raised from TL300 million to TL4.5 billion, would now increase to TL5 billion with an additional TL500 million in funding.
“We had previously raised the annual limit for rediscount loans from TL300 million to TL4.5 billion. With an additional TL500 million, we are increasing this figure to TL5 billion,” Erdoğan said.
He also announced that Türkiye aims to raise exports to distant countries to $50 billion by 2028, describing the target as part of Ankara’s broader strategy to diversify export markets and sustain economic momentum.
Erdoğan noted that Türkiye has recorded uninterrupted economic growth for 23 consecutive quarters, highlighting exports as one of the key drivers of that performance.
Congratulating companies and business leaders honored during the ceremony, Erdoğan said export success requires perseverance, determination and hard work, adding that he understands the challenges faced by exporters through his own background in trade.
Sales from industrial goods manufactured in Türkiye reached 24.03 trillion Turkish liras ($608.3 billion) in 2025, the country’s statistical authority said Friday.
Türkiye produced 1.216 million automobiles, 8.329 million household refrigerators and freezers, 334 million tons of ready-mixed concrete, 1.266 million combi boilers, 9.557 million tons of detergents and washing preparations, and 774,970 motorcycles last year, according to annual industrial product statistics released by the Turkish Statistical Institute (TurkStat).
The total value of sales from products manufactured by enterprises climbed 27.7% year-on-year in 2025, up from TL 18.815 trillion in 2024 and TL 13.344 trillion in 2023.
Food industry products accounted for 15.5% of total sales, followed by basic metals at 10.2%, motor vehicles, trailers and semi-trailers at 9.7%, and fabricated metal products at 6.1%.
High-technology products made up 3.6% of the total sales value in manufacturing last year. Low- and medium-low-technology products together accounted for 67.5%, while medium-high-technology products had a 28.8% share.
By main industrial groups, intermediate goods accounted for the largest share of total sales at 43.8%, followed by non-durable consumer goods at 23.7% and capital goods at 21.8%.
In the manufacture of motor vehicles, trailers and semi-trailers, the top five provinces accounted for 83.1% of total sales value. Kocaeli held the largest share at 34%, followed by Bursa at 29.8%, Sakarya at 11.8%, Aksaray at 3.9% and Izmir at 3.6%.
In contract manufacturing, clothing products accounted for 32.3% in manufacturing, followed by textile products at 17.6% and fabricated metal products at 9.3%.
Türkiye was home to 688 companies funded by Latin American and Caribbean capital as of the end of 2025, with their capital investment stock in the country reaching $3.4 billion, Trade Minister Ömer Bolat said.
Speaking at a meeting with ambassadors of Latin American countries at the Trade Ministry on Thursday, Bolat offered condolences on behalf of the Turkish nation and government over the earthquake in Venezuela, saying Türkiye would stand by the country in search and rescue and other relief efforts.
Bolat said relations between Türkiye and Latin America had developed on the basis of mutual respect and a shared vision, adding that the “Latin America and the Caribbean Opening Policy,” launched in 1998 and updated in 2006, had begun to bear fruit.
Pointing to the significant increase in Türkiye’s diplomatic presence in the region in recent years, Bolat said: “We increased the number of our diplomatic missions from six in 2002 to 20 today. We have trade counselor offices in most countries in the region. Likewise, we are very pleased that Latin American countries have 18 embassies in Türkiye.”
Bolat said Türkiye and Latin American countries had signed important trade and political agreements over the past two decades, while direct flights from Türkiye to the region had also begun during this period.
He also highlighted aid carried out in the region by the Turkish Cooperation and Coordination Agency (TIKA), saying Turkish institutions had rapidly delivered assistance to the region during natural disasters such as earthquakes and hurricanes.
Despite geopolitical risks and protectionist policies, Bolat said the Turkish economy had recorded positive growth for the past 23 quarters and ranked 16th in the world with an economy exceeding $1.1 trillion. He said Türkiye had introduced legal regulations to provide incentives to international investors.
Bolat noted that Türkiye had reduced the corporate tax rate for international investments from 25% to 12.5%.
“We have also launched the ‘One-Stop Office’ system to carry out the permit and licensing procedures investors need from a single center. Our national income per capita has exceeded $18,000. The downward trend in inflation and unemployment remaining in single digits for the past three years continue to make Türkiye an attractive center for investors,” he said.
Bolat said Türkiye’s combined goods and services exports reached $390 billion in 2025, adding that the target for 2026 was $410 billion. He also pointed to the global success of the Turkish contracting sector, saying Turkish firms had undertaken projects worth $562 billion in 138 countries.
Bolat said the coming period would see intense diplomatic activity, noting that Türkiye would host major international events this year, including the NATO Summit, the U.N. Climate Change Conference COP31 and the International Astronautical Congress.
He said Türkiye’s trade relations with Latin America and the Caribbean had gained momentum in recent years. The total trade volume with the region stood at just $920 million in 2000 but increased 18-fold over 25 years to reach $16.4 billion, he said.
Bolat said $5.7 billion of the total trade consisted of Türkiye’s exports to Latin America and the Caribbean, while $10.6 billion came from imports from the region.
“Trade with the region continued to increase in the first five months of this year, reaching $8.3 billion. While Türkiye’s exports to Latin America remained almost unchanged during this period, imports from the Latin American region increased by 19%. Thus, the foreign trade volume rose by 15.7%,” he said.
Bolat said Türkiye’s exports to Latin American countries mainly included gold, jewelry, iron and steel, automotive products, cement and petroleum oils, while imports from the region included live cattle, raw unprocessed gold, soybeans, coffee, cotton and hard coal.
Noting that Latin America and the Caribbean still did not account for a large share of Türkiye’s foreign trade, Bolat said the region’s share in Türkiye’s total exports in 2025 was 2.1%, while its share in total imports was around 3%.
“This picture shows that our supply from the region has strengthened, but it also indicates that we need to place greater importance on mutual trade relations and achieve a more balanced structure in foreign trade. In the coming period, we will raise these rates further,” he said.
Bolat said Türkiye was closely following regional integration initiatives such as MERCOSUR, or the Southern Common Market, and the Pacific Alliance, in addition to maintaining good bilateral ties with countries in the region.
“We are also carefully monitoring developments regarding the free trade agreement signed between the European Union and MERCOSUR. We believe Türkiye’s more than 30 years of Customs Union integration experience with the European Union in industrial products is also important for developing our economic relations with MERCOSUR,” he said.
Bolat said Türkiye had free trade agreements with Chile and Venezuela in the region, Joint Economic Commission mechanisms with 24 countries and Joint Economic and Trade Committee (JETCO) mechanisms with several countries.
He said the first JETCO meeting with Paraguay had also been held recently, adding that Türkiye had agreements on the reciprocal promotion and protection of investments with eight friendly countries in the region, as well as double taxation avoidance agreements with six countries.
Bolat said there were 13 business councils for the region within the Foreign Economic Relations Board (DEIK), adding that Türkiye aimed to further advance trade, investment and economic cooperation through new projects and that he believed the number of business councils would increase further.
Highlighting mutual investments, Bolat said: “As of the end of 2025, 688 companies with Latin American and Caribbean capital had been established in Türkiye, and their capital investment stock in Türkiye stood at $3.4 billion. Direct investment and capital stock from Türkiye to Latin American countries amounts to $1.3 billion. Turkish companies have investments in many sectors in Latin America, from port operations and energy investments to construction and tourism. Considering the potential between us, it is clear that mutual investments need to increase further.”
Bolat said the total value of projects undertaken by Turkish international contracting firms in Latin America and the Caribbean had reached $1.6 billion, with 45 projects completed or undertaken to date.
He also said Turkish TV series had attracted intense interest in the region, adding that Türkiye was the world’s third-fastest-growing country in TV series and film exports after the U.S. and the U.K.
Bolat said Turkish productions had become a global brand, reaching more than 1 billion viewers daily in over 150 countries.
“Turkish TV series attract great interest across Latin America and the Caribbean, particularly in Chile, Argentina, Colombia, Peru, Mexico and Brazil, as well as in North America, both on national television channels and digital streaming platforms,” he said.
“With the growing interest in Turkish series in recent years, there has also been a significant rise in demand among people in the region to learn Turkish. According to the latest services export data, Türkiye exports around $610 million worth of TV series annually, 22% of which goes to the Americas. Around 40% of Türkiye’s TV and film exports to the Americas reach service consumers in the Latin American market,” he added.
Bolat said Türkiye also recognized Latin America’s deep-rooted production experience in the sector, noting that Latin American TV series were also followed with great interest in Türkiye.
“By combining Latin America’s experience in TV and film production with Türkiye’s production strength, intensive cooperation can be developed in areas such as joint productions, adaptations, scriptwriting and format exchange,” he said.
Climate action stands out not only as an environmental priority but also as an essential path for protecting growth, stability and prosperity, according to Treasury and Finance Minister Mehmet Şimşek.
“Climate action is not just about protecting the environment. It is about protecting growth, stability and prosperity,” the minister said at the Net Zero Delivery Summit, held as part of London Climate Action Week.
Şimşek said climate discussions over the past decade had focused mainly on targets and commitments, but the priority must now shift to implementation.
“Most countries already have ambitious targets. The real question is whether we can implement these plans at the speed and scale required,” he said.
He warned that the cost of inaction would be far higher than the cost of preventing climate-related disasters.
“If we fail to tackle climate change, the cost will be extremely high. Most studies show that the cost of inaction is many times greater than the cost of preventing a climate catastrophe,” he said.
Şimşek said developing countries, excluding China, are expected to need around $2.5 trillion annually by 2030 to meet their climate goals, while current climate finance flows stand at only about $200 billion a year.
“We are far from the scale required,” he said, adding that the issue is not a lack of capital but the need to mobilize it at scale and direct it toward investable climate projects.
“Climate risk is no longer a risk of the future. It is already an economic risk today. Moreover, this problem is not limited to individual countries; it is a global problem,” he said.
He noted that only about one-quarter of climate-related losses worldwide are insured, while the remaining burden falls on households, companies and governments.
The minister also said the global financial system needs a simpler, faster and more effective climate finance architecture, with lower capital costs, improved access to finance and stronger cooperation among public institutions, multilateral development banks and investors.
He recalled that countries agreed at COP29 in Baku on a new climate finance target of $300 billion annually by 2035 and set out a road map to mobilize $1.3 trillion.
“Now the real question is how we turn these commitments into concrete results. This is precisely where Türkiye hopes to contribute as this year’s COP31 president,” Şimşek said.
He said Türkiye aims to support implementation through its Climate Implementation Bridge initiative, which seeks to help countries turn climate priorities into investable project pipelines and connect them with financing.
On Türkiye’s COP31 priorities, Şimşek said electrification will be one of the central focus areas.
“Recent energy shocks have reminded us that energy security, affordability and sustainability can no longer be considered separately,” he said.
He said Türkiye has launched a global discussion on raising electricity’s share in final energy consumption from around 20% today to 35% by 2035.
Şimşek said Türkiye’s COP31 agenda also includes waste management, cities, oceans and youth engagement, while the COP31 Business Forum was launched this week with the Union of Chambers and Commodity Exchanges of Türkiye (TOBB), serving as the private sector representative.
The forum will convene again during New York Climate Week and later at COP31 in Antalya, while Istanbul will host Climate Finance Week in September, he said.
“What the world lacks is not commitments, but implementation. These commitments can only be realized through partnerships,” Şimşek noted.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) said Wednesday it’s prepared to make “immediate disbursement” of more than $800 million to the Ivory Coast as part of several aid programs.
The fund’s executive board reviewed and approved three programs, allowing Abidjan to borrow approximately $832.8 million.
The lender in a statement commended Ivory Coast authorities for “sustained reform efforts” that have “helped restore macroeconomic stability.”
For nearly 15 years, the country has posted strong growth rates – among the strongest in the region – and has regained stability after a decade of strife in the early 2000s.
The Washington-based banking organization expects growth to slow to %6 in 2026, down from %6.5 in 2025, reflecting economic repercussions of the Middle East war and heightened global uncertainty.
“Inflation, which declined to near zero in 2025, has begun to rebound and is projected to average %3.3 in 2026, driven by higher food and energy prices,” the IMF said in a statement.
EU states gave their final approval Thursday to a year-old tariff deal with the United States, allowing it to enter into force ahead of a July 4 deadline set by U.S. President Donald Trump.
Struck between Trump and EU chief Ursula von der Leyen in July 2025, the deal sets levies of %15 on most of EU exports to the U.S., and zero tariffs for U.S. industrial goods coming into the 27-nation bloc.
But the EU had yet to fulfil its side of the accord – after Trump’s threats to Greenland and a U.S. Supreme Court decision striking down many of his tariffs fuelled months of delay.
The sign-off by member states – who had already agreed the deal in substance – clears the final legislative hurdle on the EU side, following parliament’s approval earlier this month.
The deal’s approval “confirms the EU’s commitment to a stable, predictable and mutually beneficial transatlantic trade relationship, while preserving the necessary guardrails to protect European economic interests,” an EU statement said.
Lawmakers added a series of safeguards, including giving the European Commission power to suspend the pact if the U.S. side fails to meet its commitments or acts to disrupt trade and investment.
Parliament also introduced an expiration date of end-2029, unless the agreement is renewed by then.
“Openness must go hand in hand with safeguarding our interests,” said Michael Damianos, the commerce minister for the Greek Cypriot administration which holds the EU’s rotating presidency.
“These measures achieve both, supporting stable and predictable trade flows with the U.S. while ensuring the EU can respond swiftly and proportionately when the deal is not respected or its interests are at stake,” he said.
The two texts enacting the EU side of the accord – removing duties on U.S. industrial goods and introducing preferential access for certain seafood and farm products – will formally take effect a day after publication in the EU’s official journal.
We now do 1 year’s worth of exports in 1 week
Minister Gürlek: We will continue our fight against drugs and all kinds of harmful substances with determination.
Minister Kurum announced by giving a date: Project that will reduce rents in Istanbul! Will be delivered in September
We now do 1 year’s worth of exports in 1 week
Minister Gürlek: We will continue our fight against drugs and all kinds of harmful substances with determination.
Minister Kurum announced by giving a date: Project that will reduce rents in Istanbul! Will be delivered in September
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