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Economy

Slumping factory output, retail sales deliver blow to Chinese economy

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China’s factory output growth fell to its weakest pace in eight months in July, while retail sales slowed markedly, adding pressure on policymakers to deliver more stimulus to bolster domestic demand and shield the $19 trillion economy from external shocks.

The underwhelming indicators come as officials navigate pressure on multiple fronts ranging from U.S. President Donald Trump’s trade policies to extreme weather, excessive competition in the domestic market, and chronic weakness in the property sector.

Industrial output grew 5.7% year-over-year in July, National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) data showed on Friday, the lowest reading since November 2024, and compared with a 6.8% rise in June. It missed forecasts for a 5.9% increase in a Reuters poll.

Retail sales, a gauge of consumption, expanded 3.7% in July, the slowest pace since December 2024, and cooling from a 4.8% rise in the previous month. They missed a forecast gain of 4.6%.

A temporary trade truce reached between China and the United States in mid-May, which was extended by another 90 days this week, has prevented U.S. tariff rates on Chinese goods from returning to prohibitively high levels. However, Chinese manufacturers’ profits continue to take a hit from subdued demand and factory-gate deflation at home.

“The economy is quite reliant on government support, and the issue is those efforts were ‘front-loaded’ to the early months of 2025, and by now their impact has somewhat faded out,” said Xu Tianchen, senior economist at the Economist Intelligence Unit.

That policy support has helped the world’s second-largest economy avoid a widely anticipated sharp slowdown, along with factories taking advantage of the U.S.-China trade truce to front-load shipments, but analysts say weak demand at home and global risks will drag on growth in coming quarters.

Friday’s data drew a mixed reaction from investors, with Chinese blue chips up 0.5% and Hong Kong stocks down 1.1% in afternoon trading.

Property woes, slow GDP recovery

Fixed asset investment grew just 1.6% in the first seven months of the year from the same period last year, compared with an expected 2.7% rise. It had expanded 2.8% in the first half.

“Firms may be running on existing capacity rather than building new plants,” said Yuhan Zhang, principal economist at The Conference Board’s China Center.

“The July industrial value-add breakdown tells a more nuanced story than the weak fixed asset investment headline,” he added, pointing to China’s automobile manufacturing, railway, shipbuilding, aerospace and other transport equipment industries as “outliers (that) indicate policy-driven, high-tech and strategic sectors are still attracting substantial capital.”

Beijing has recently stepped up policy measures and made pledges to prop up domestic consumption and curb excessive price competition, as authorities strive to lift economic growth towards the government’s 2025 target of around 5%.

The government’s renewed crackdown on “disorderly” competition will help prices recover, Fu Linghui, a spokesperson for the NBS told reporters following the data release.

Officials worry overcapacity among Chinese manufacturers and the price cuts made to clear stock are raising expectations among consumers, who are showing few signs of loosening their purse strings, for ever cheaper goods.

China’s new yuan loans contracted in July for the first time in 20 years, separate bank lending data showed on Wednesday, pointing to weak private sector demand.

A protracted slowdown in the nation’s crucial property sector, a key store of household wealth, continues to put pressure on consumer spending.

New home prices extended a stagnant phase for over two years, falling 2.8% in July year-on-year, versus a 3.2% drop in June.

“The accelerating downturn in property prices in the past few months signals that further policy support is needed,” Lynn Song, ING’s chief economist for Greater China, said in a note.

“It’s difficult to expect consumers to spend with greater confidence if their biggest asset continues to decline in value every month.”

Economic activity has also been impacted by extreme weather, from record-breaking heat to storms and floods across the country, disrupting factory production and day-to-day business operations.

The latest Reuters poll projected China’s GDP growth to slow to 4.5% in the third quarter and 4.0% in the fourth, suggesting that Beijing has its work cut out in getting households to spend more at a time of uncertainty over job security and mounting headwinds from Trump’s global trade war.

China’s 2025 GDP growth is forecast to cool to 4.6% – falling short of the official goal – from last year’s 5.0% and ease even further to 4.2% in 2026, according to the poll.

“We see little reason to expect much of an economic recovery during the rest of this year,” said Zichun Huang, China economist at Capital Economics.

“The lack of committing to any additional fiscal support in the latest Politburo meeting points to a fading fiscal tailwind.”

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Economy

Spotify to open Türkiye office amid chart scrutiny, artist complaints

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Spotify will establish a local office in Türkiye in 2026, Culture and Tourism Minister Mehmet Nuri Ersoy announced on Tuesday, a development that follows a formal investigation and mounting criticism from artists over the company’s chart compilation practices.

The office will address “an important deficiency” and strengthen collaboration between the music streaming giant and Turkish artists, Ersoy said on social media platform X.

The announcement came after Ersoy met with Spotify representatives in Ankara. He said concrete progress would soon be made to ensure Türkiye’s music ecosystem receives the support it deserves from Spotify.

The company has faced backlash from Turkish artists over what they describe as a lack of transparency in how its charts are compiled. Spotify has also been accused of censorship and preferential treatment.

Reports had also suggested Spotify launched an internal investigation into its editors in Türkiye following allegations of bribery linked to local charts, though the company later denied this.

Last month, the Turkish Competition Authority (RK) launched an investigation into “various allegations that the strategies and policies implemented by Spotify” in Türkiye have caused anti-competitive effects in the music industry.

The regulator said the probe would examine whether the Swedish company gave more visibility to some artists and engaged in unfair practices in the distribution of royalties, thereby violating competition law.

Culture and Tourism Minister Mehmet Nuri Ersoy (C) meets with Spotify representatives, Ankara, Türkiye, Aug. 19, 2025. (AA Photo)

Culture and Tourism Minister Mehmet Nuri Ersoy (C) meets with Spotify representatives, Ankara, Türkiye, Aug. 19, 2025. (AA Photo)

The company said its operations complied with “all applicable laws” but would cooperate with the investigation.

“Spotify will establish its office in Istanbul in 2026, deepening collaborations in this field,” said Ersoy. “We will sit down with company representatives and our music industry stakeholders to explore joint initiatives.”

The minister noted that Turkish artists achieved global success in 2024, reaching 2.8 billion new listeners and breaking records on international charts.

“Today, more than half of royalty revenues come from audiences outside Türkiye. This strong partnership will also support young talents and female artists, giving new momentum to our cultural diplomacy,” he added.

“We will continue working closely with the Spotify team on this and similar efforts to promote Türkiye’s rich musical heritage and culture worldwide.”

Spotify, which launched in Türkiye in 2013, says it paid over TL 2 billion (nearly $50 million) to the local music industry in 2024, calling its service “pivotal in growing Turkish artists’ royalties globally.”

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Economy

Türkiye’s untapped $3.5T mining potential seen as key to narrowing trade gap

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The mining sector carries strategic importance and could be seen as key to narrowing the trade deficit of Türkiye, which is yet to fully utilize its massive underground potential, according to industry representatives.

Türkiye recorded a foreign trade gap of $49.3 billion (TL 2.02 trillion) in the first half of the year, of which $20.8 billion stemmed from the mining and quarrying industry, according to data from the Turkish Miners Association (TMD).

“Türkiye’s underground potential is worth $3.5 trillion. It is unacceptable to run an annual trade deficit of $50 billion-$60 billion while leaving this potential untapped,” TMD President Mehmet Yılmaz said.

Although exploration licenses cover 7.7 million hectares across the country’s 78.3 million-hectare land area, actual operating licenses represent just one-thousandth of that total. On average, only one in every 200 exploration permits becomes an active mine.

Mining activity in forest areas accounts for only 0.1% of Türkiye’s total surface area, with rehabilitation and reforestation mandated by law. So far, around 11,325 hectares have been rehabilitated.

Yılmaz says mining should be a “locomotive sector” for Türkiye’s economy, citing developed countries such as the United States, Canada, Australia, Russia, China and India, where he says mining has historically played a central role in industrial development.

“Considering our underground potential, activating the mining sector is an inevitable and highly significant reality,” he noted.

Gold, boron, marble

Yılmaz underlined Türkiye’s global significance in several key resources, including gold, boron and marble.

The country holds 73% of the world’s boron reserves, though value-added production remains limited.

Exporting refined boron products to industries such as glass, fertilizer, batteries and defense could generate an additional $2 billion annually, said Yılmaz.

In marble, he said boosting sales of processed products rather than raw exports could add $1.5 billion in revenue.

“We are the world leader in boron. And we have branded products in the marble sector,” he added.

Türkiye’s gold reserves are estimated at about 5,000 tons, but could rise toward 10,000 tons with updated surveys, according to Yılmaz.

Critical role in green transition

Yılmaz also pointed to the role of critical minerals in the global energy transition.

“Lithium, graphite and rare earth elements are vital for producing electric vehicles, wind turbines and solar panels. The shift to green energy will require six to nine times more mining. We must mobilize this potential,” he said.

He noted that Türkiye has “strategic” reserves of lithium, silver, titanium, iron, manganese, zinc, copper and aluminum, which are resources crucial for defense, renewable energy and high-tech industries.

Emphasizing the rising demand for minerals driven by clean energy technologies, Yılmaz said: “An electric vehicle requires six times more minerals than a conventional car, while an offshore wind turbine uses 13 times more minerals compared to a natural gas power plant.”

He added that Türkiye’s target of adding 60 gigawatts of renewable energy capacity by 2035 will significantly increase demand for mining inputs.

Yılmaz emphasized that industrial dependence on foreign sources is “unacceptable.”

“Positioning mining against the environment and local communities is wrong. Any mining activity that prioritizes people and the environment within a framework of sustainability should be supported,” he said.

Addressing debates over mining in olive groves, Yılmaz said activities could proceed if international criteria and safeguards are met. “Olive trees are sacred, but just like industrial plants, housing projects, or highways can cause damage, mining too can be managed in a way that balances national interest,” he added.

He also highlighted misconceptions about mining in forest areas, noting that only 0.038% of forest land is used for mining. “Preventing the misuse of such misperceptions is in the nation’s best interest,” he said.

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Economy

Türkiye says to surpass $390B in goods, services trade by year-end

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Türkiye is on track to achieve a new peak and exceed $390 billion (TL 15.95 trillion) in total foreign trade in goods and services this year, Trade Minister Ömer Bolat said on Tuesday.

That would mark a major upgrade from $375 billion in 2024 and compares to only $50 billion more than two decades ago, Bolat told an event in Istanbul.

Since the beginning of the year, Türkiye has added $1 billion to its exports every month, said the minister, adding that outbound shipments rose by 5.1% in the first seven months of this year.

“In 2002, Türkiye had $50 billion in exports. Today, we’ve reached $375 billion, and by year-end, we’ll surpass $390 billion,” Bolat noted.

He underlined the growing role of textiles and apparel, noting that in 2024 the sector generated $32.1 billion in exports.

Of this, $19.7 billion came from ready-to-wear and apparel, $9.4 billion from textiles and raw materials and $2.9 billion from carpets.

Together, these industries secured a 3.5% share of global exports, ranking Türkiye seventh worldwide and the European Union’s fourth-largest supplier, Bolat said.

Overall, Bolat cited the national income that reached $1.3 trillion last year and noted the economy’s continuous growth despite global challenges.

The government aims to lift the per capita income to $16,500-$17,000, the minister added. The income reached over $15,460 last year, according to official data.

“We will overcome challenges. As inflation declines, growth will accelerate in a stable environment.”

He predicted easing inflation in the period ahead would support financing conditions.

Inflation slowed to 33.5% in July, according to official data, the lowest rate since November 2021, having peaked at 75% in May last year.

Bolat said inflation has been declining for the past 14 months and said it would drop below 30% by the end of the year.

This, he said, along with declining interest rates, will make financing more accessible and support stronger export performance.

“With inflation falling into the 20s in 2026, access to financing will be easier and market stability will be firmly established,” he noted.

As disinflation continues, the Turkish central bank last month relaunched an easing cycle that was disrupted by political turmoil earlier this year, cutting its key policy rate by 300 basis points to 43%.

The bank had hiked the one-week repo rate to 46% from 42.5% in April and lifted its overnight lending rates to 49 % following market volatility over the arrest in March of Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoğlu.

Imamoğlu was jailed pending trial over graft charges.

Before April, the bank had gradually cut its key policy rate from December as inflation eased.

“If global demand improves and the Russia-Ukraine war ends with a peace deal, we will see much brighter days for our economy,” said Bolat.

The minister highlighted government support for exporters, saying 60% of the ministry’s budget is allocated to incentives, including market access, trade fairs and sectoral trade delegations.

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Economy

Türkiye says to hold 5G tender in October, eyes 2026 rollout

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Türkiye plans to finalize the specifications for its long-awaited 5G frequency tender by the end of this month and hold the auction in October, with initial service expected to be available in 2026, Transport and Infrastructure Minister Abdulkadir Uraloğlu said Tuesday.

Uraloğlu’s remarks came days after the government published the list of frequencies to be allocated for usage rights in the 5G tender, with the minimum price for the available frequency packages set at $2.13 billion.

“We aim to publish the tender specifications this month and hold the tender in October. Our goal is to expand 5G across the entire country within a few years after the initial signal is received in 2026,” Uraloğlu said in a statement.

He noted that the ministry had held extensive consultations and examined international practices, particularly in Europe, to design the auction framework.

“We are preparing the tender specifications in a way that both serves the public interest and does not hinder operators’ investment capabilities or reflexes,” he said.

According to a presidential decree published in the Official Gazette on Saturday, the tender will include 11 frequency packages across the 700 MHz and 3.5 GHz bands, with individual package values ranging from $50 million to $425 million.

All three operators – government-controlled Türk Telekom and Turkcell along with Vodafone’s Turkish unit – are expected to take part in the tender.

The tender will also see the government roll over existing mobile network licenses, which are currently set to expire in 2029. Operators will be required to pay 5% of their yearly revenues to roll over the licenses.

The operators have long been preparing for the transition.

Last week, Türk Telekom said it is fully prepared for the 5G tender and rollout, citing its robust fiber infrastructure and strategic investments.

Its CEO Ümit Önal said 54% of the company’s long-term evolution (LTE) base stations are already connected via fiber.

Türk Telekom owns and maintains nearly 80% of Türkiye’s national fiber network through a concession agreement that is set to expire in 2026. Önal said the company is nearing the renewal of the deal.

Turkcell CEO Ali Taha Koç said the company has completed financial planning for the rollout. “A large part of our network has been modernized for the transition to 5G and the fiberization rate of our base stations has been rapidly increasing,” he said.

“We have also finalized our financial planning to integrate new base stations into our network,” he added.

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Economy

Brits get limited relief as grocery inflation edges lower in August

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Grocery inflation in Britain nudged down to 5.0% over the four weeks to Aug. 10, data from market researcher Worldpanel by Numerator showed on Tuesday, providing limited relief for consumers.

The figure, the most up-to-date snapshot of U.K. food inflation, compares to 5.2% in last month’s report. Official U.K. inflation data for July will be published on Wednesday.

Britain’s food retailers have said that increased employer taxes and regulatory costs as well as higher staff wages have added to the inflationary pressure of rising prices on many commodity markets.

“We’ve seen a marginal drop in grocery price inflation this month, but we’re still well past the point at which price rises really start to bite and consumers are continuing to adapt their behavior to make ends meet,” Fraser McKevitt, head of retail and consumer insight at Worldpanel, said.

He noted consumer trips during the three months to mid-July to casual and fast service restaurants were 6% lower than a year ago. But as consumers made savings outside the home, they sought treats in store.

Sales of branded grocery items were up 6.1% over the four weeks, while sales of own-label alternatives were up 4.1%. Among the fastest price rises were for chocolate, fresh meat and coffee and the fastest falls were in champagne and sparkling wine, dog food and sugar confectionery, Worldpanel said.

Trade body the British Retail Consortium, which represents Britain’s biggest retailers, has predicted food inflation will hit 6% by the end of the year, putting more pressure on household budgets in the run-up to Christmas.

The Bank of England (BoE) has forecast it will hit 5.5% before Christmas and then recede as it anticipates falls on commodity markets. Worldpanel said U.K. grocery sales grew 4.0% over the four-week period year-over-year, indicating sales volumes were down after inflation was taken into account.

Discounter Lidl and online supermarket Ocado were Britain’s fastest growing grocers over the 12 weeks to Aug. 10, with sales up 10.7%. Sales at industry leader Tesco rose 7.4%, with its market share up 0.8 percentage points over the year to 28.4%. However, number three player Asda struggled with sales down 2.6% and a 0.9 percentage points loss of market share year-over-year.

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Economy

Air Canada reaches deal with flight attendant union to end strike

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Air Canada’s unionized flight attendants reached a deal with the country’s largest carrier on Tuesday, ending the first strike by its cabin crew in 40 years that had upended travel plans for hundreds of thousands of passengers.

The union first announced the agreement early Tuesday after talks with Air Canada resumed talks late Monday for the first time since the strike began over the weekend and at the peak of the summer travel season.

Air Canada said it would gradually resume operations as of Tuesday evening and a full restoration may require a week or more, while the union said it has completed mediation with the airline and its low-cost affiliate Air Canada Rouge.

“The Strike has ended. We have a tentative agreement we will bring forward to you,” the Canadian Union of Public Employees (CUPE) said in a Facebook post, as the strike entered its fourth day.

The carrier had earlier offered a 38% increase in total compensation for flight attendants over four years, with a 25% raise in the first year, which the union deemed insufficient.

The flight attendants walked off the job on Saturday after contract talks with the carrier failed. They had sought pay for tasks such as boarding passengers, which are not remunerated. They are now paid for time when the plane is moving.

A passenger walks as striking Air Canada flight attendants hold placards at Vancouver International Airport in Richmond, British Columbia, Canada, Aug. 18, 2025. (Reuters Photo)

A passenger walks as striking Air Canada flight attendants hold placards at Vancouver International Airport in Richmond, British Columbia, Canada, Aug. 18, 2025. (Reuters Photo)

The CUPE, which represents Air Canada’s 10,400 flight attendants, wanted to make gains on unpaid work that go beyond recent advances secured by their counterparts at U.S. carriers like American Airlines.

“Unpaid work is over. We have reclaimed our voice and our power,” the union said in a statement. “When our rights were taken away, we stood strong, we fought back – and we secured a tentative agreement that our members can vote on.”

In a rare act of defiance, the union remained on strike even after the Canada Industrial Relations Board declared its action unlawful.

Their refusal to follow a federal labor board order for the flight attendants to return to work had created a three-way standoff between the company, workers and the government.

Labor leaders objected to the Canadian government’s repeated use of a law that cuts off workers’ right to strike and forces them into arbitration, a step the government took in recent years with workers at ports, railways and elsewhere.

Jobs Minister Patty Hajdu had urged both sides to consider government mediation and raised pressure on Air Canada, promising to investigate allegations of unpaid work in the airline sector, a key complaint of flight attendants who say they are not paid for work on the ground.

Flight attendants have for months argued new contracts should include pay for work done on the ground, such as boarding passengers.

Stranded passengers gather as Air Canada flight attendants strike at Toronto Pearson International Airport in Mississauga, Ontario, Canada, Aug. 18, 2025. (Reuters Photo)

Stranded passengers gather as Air Canada flight attendants strike at Toronto Pearson International Airport in Mississauga, Ontario, Canada, Aug. 18, 2025. (Reuters Photo)

Air Canada operates around 700 flights per day. The airline estimated Monday that 500,000 customers would be affected by flight cancellations.

The carrier and its low-cost affiliate Air Canada Rouge normally carry about 130,000 customers a day. The airline is also the foreign carrier with the largest number of flights to the U.S.

Aviation analytics firm Cirium said that as of Monday afternoon, Air Canada had called off at least 1,219 domestic flights and 1,339 international flights since last Thursday, when the carrier began gradually suspending its operations ahead of the strike and lockout.

Passengers whose flights are impacted will be eligible to request a full refund on the airline’s website or mobile app, according to Air Canada.

Chief executive Michael Rousseau said restarting a major carrier is a complex undertaking. The airline said regular service may require seven to 10 days and some flights will be canceled until the schedule is stabilized.

“Full restoration may require a week or more, so we ask for our customers’ patience and understanding over the coming days,” Rousseau said in a statement.

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