Economy
Concerns over global economic fallout deepen as Iran war grinds on
U.S. and Israeli attacks on Iran have pushed prices up, clouded the outlook for the global economy, sent global stock markets crumbling and forced both developed and developing countries to step in with measures including rationing of fuel and subsidizing the energy costs to protect the most vulnerable.
Ongoing strikes and counterstrikes on Persian Gulf refineries, pipelines, gas fields and tanker terminals threaten to prolong the global economic pain for months, even years.
“A week ago or certainly two weeks ago, I would have said: If the war stopped that day, the long-term implications would be pretty small,’’ said Christopher Knittel, an energy economist at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.
“But what we’re seeing is infrastructure actually being destroyed, which means the ramifications of this war are going to be long-lived.”
Iran hit Qatar’s Ras Laffan natural gas terminal, which produces 20% of the world’s liquefied natural gas (LNG). The March 18 strike wiped out 17% of Qatar’s LNG export capacity and repairs will take up to five years, state-owned QatarEnergy said.
The war caused an oil shock from the get-go. Iran responded to U.S. and Israeli attacks, which commenced on Feb. 28 by effectively closing off the Strait of Hormuz, a transit point for a fifth of the world’s oil, by threatening tankers trying to pass through.
Gulf oil exporters like Kuwait and Iraq cut production because there was nowhere for their oil to go without access to the strait.
The loss of 20 million barrels of oil a day delivered what the International Energy Agency (IEA) calls the “largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market.’’
The price for a barrel of Brent crude oil climbed 3.4% on Friday to settle at $105.32. That was up from roughly $70 just before the war began. Benchmark U.S. crude rose 5.5% to settle at $99.64 per barrel.
‘Global recessions’ risk
“Historically, oil price shocks like this have led to global recessions,” Knittel said.
The war has also dredged up a bad economic memory from the oil shocks of the 1970s: stagflation.
“You’re raising the risk of higher inflation and lower growth,” said the Harvard Kennedy School’s Carmen Reinhart, a former World Bank chief economist.
Gita Gopinath, former chief economist at the International Monetary Fund (IMF), recently wrote that global economic growth, expected before the war to register 3.3% this year, would be 0.3 to 0.4 percentage points lower if oil prices averaged $85 a barrel in 2026.
The Persian Gulf accounts for a big share of exports of two key fertilizers, a third of urea and a quarter of ammonia. Producers in the region enjoy an advantage: easy access to low-cost natural gas, the primary feedstock for nitrogen fertilizers.
Up to 40% of world exports of nitrogen fertilizer pass through the Strait of Hormuz.
Urea, ammonia prices shoot up
Now that the passage is blocked, urea prices are up 50% since the war and ammonia 20%.
Big agricultural producer Brazil is especially vulnerable because it gets 85% of its fertilizer from imports, Alpine Macro commodity strategist Kelly Xu wrote in a commentary.
Egypt, a big fertilizer producer itself, needs natural gas to make the stuff and production falters when it can’t get enough.
Eventually, higher fertilizer prices are likely to make food more expensive and less abundant as farmers skimp on it and get lower yields. The squeeze on food supplies will land hardest on families in poorer countries.
The war has also disrupted world supplies of helium, a byproduct of natural gas and a key input in chipmaking, rockets and medical imaging. Qatar makes helium at the Ras Laffan facility and supplies a third of the world’s helium.
“No country will be immune to the effects of this crisis if it continues to go in this direction,” IEA head Fatih Birol said on March 23.
Poorer countries will be hit hardest and face the biggest energy shortages “because they will be outbid when competing for the remaining oil and natural gas,” said Lutz Kilian, director of the Center for Energy and the Economy at the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
Asia thin-skinned
Asia is especially exposed: More than 80% of the oil and LNG that passes through the Strait of Hormuz is headed there.
In the Philippines, government offices are now open just four days a week and bureaucrats must limit the use of air conditioning to nothing cooler than 75°F (24°C). In Thailand, public workers have been told to take the stairs instead of elevators.
India is the world’s second-biggest importer of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), which is used in cooking. The Indian government is giving households priority over businesses as it allocates its limited supply and absorbing most of the price increases to keep costs low for poor families.
But LPG shortages have forced some eateries to shorten hours, close temporarily or drop dishes like curries and deep-fried snacks requiring a lot of energy.
South Korea, dependent on energy imports, is restricting the use of cars by public employees and has reinstated fuel price caps that had been dropped in the 1990s.
The United States, the world’s largest economy, is somewhat insulated.
America is an oil exporter, so its energy companies stand to benefit from higher prices. And LNG prices are lower in the U.S. than elsewhere because its export liquefaction facilities already are running at 100% capacity. The U.S. can’t export any more LNG than it already is, so gas stays home, keeping domestic supplies abundant and prices stable.
Still, higher gasoline prices are weighing on American consumers already frustrated by the high cost of living. According to AAA, the average price of a gallon of gasoline has risen to nearly $4 a gallon from $2.98 a month ago.
U.S. economy
“Nothing weighs more heavily on consumers’ collective psyche than having to pay more at the pump,” Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics, and his colleagues wrote in a commentary.
The U.S. economy already was showing signs of weakness, expanding an annual pace of just 0.7% from October through December, down from a rollicking 4.4% from July through September.
Employers unexpectedly cut 92,000 jobs in February and added just 9,700 a month in 2025, the weakest hiring outside a recession since 2002.
Gregory Daco, chief economist at EY-Parthenon, has raised the odds of a U.S. recession over the next year to 40%. The risk when times are “normal” is just 15%.
The world economy has proven resilient in the face of repeated shocks: a COVID-19 pandemic, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, resurgent inflation and the high interest rates needed to bring it under control.
So there was optimism that it could shrug off the damage from the Iran war. But those hopes are fading as the threats to the Gulf’s energy infrastructure continue.
“Some of the damage to LNG facilities in Qatar done will likely take years to repair,” said the Dallas Fed’s Kilian, who also noted necessary repairs to refineries in countries like Kuwait and tankers in the Gulf that must be re-provisioned and stocked up with marine fuel.
“The process of recovery will be slow even under the best circumstances.”
“There is no economic upside to the conflict with Iran,” Zandi and his colleagues wrote.
“At this point, the questions are how much longer the hostilities will continue and how much economic damage they will cause.”
Threats to ships in the crucial Strait of Hormuz amid war in Iran and broader regional conflict significantly raised payments for the insurance that underpins the global freight industry.
Here are facts and figures about how maritime insurance works, and the impact from the war sparked by U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran, which has virtually cut off shipping in the strait.
Insurance available
After the fighting broke out on Feb. 28, some insurers served so-called cancellation notices for war risk policies to “reassess … and then reinstate that cover at adjusted terms,” the International Union of Marine Insurance (IUMI) said in a statement.
Despite the name, “a ‘Notice of Cancellation’ does not, necessarily, end the cover. War cover remains available for owners and operators wishing to take it.”
Executives in London, the world’s top shipping insurance market, insisted that captains were avoiding the route to protect their crews, not because they could not get insured.
“Safety concerns, not insurance availability, (are) driving reduced vessel traffic,” headlined the Lloyd’s Market Association (LMA), a trade body for the London ship insurance industry, in a report.
The price of such policies to cross the strait has shot up, however, according to industry players.
Surging premiums
Before the current Middle East conflict, a war risk premium would typically have cost less than 1% percent of the vessel’s so-called hull value.
Now, war risk insurance could run into tens of millions of dollars for a single trip through the Hormuz Strait.
Premiums have surged for ships seeking special cover to cross the strait, according to Robert Peters of U.K. maritime consultancy Ambrey, which has an insurance arm.
“I’m not sure the market has settled on an agreed range,” he added, noting figures typically range “from 5% down to 1%.”
David Smith, head of the marine arm at specialist insurance broker McGill, meanwhile, estimated it at “anywhere between three and-a-half and 10%.”
“It is going up and down almost on an hourly basis,” he told Agence France-Presse (AFP).
Cargo insurance rates have followed the same trajectory.
“A brand new LNG (liquefied natural gas) ship could be worth $200 million to $250 million alone, and then a cargo could be worth the same again,” Smith noted.
Fivefold cover
Commercial ships typically need several separate insurance policies.
Hull cover insures against loss or damage to the vessel, while protection and indemnity (P&I) acts like third-party liability coverage.
The cargo on board, from petrochemicals to containers, also requires insurance.
In addition, ships need war risk insurance, typically an annual premium, but that does not cover ships entering the most active conflict zones, known as “listed” areas.
To do that, they must renegotiate another war risk premium.
“The annual (war risk) premium is not designed for a crisis,” said Neil Roberts, head of marine and aviation at the LMA.
Danger zones list
In early March, London’s marine insurance market widened the “listed” areas in the Gulf region.
The system “enables underwriters to respond quickly and proportionately to areas of increased risk,” said Roberts, who sits on the committee that updates the list.
To price war risk premiums, underwriters are considering numerous factors such as the type, flag and owner of the vessel, as well as its size, speed and cargo.
“We have seen some quotes where the underwriter has actually warranted that the vessel goes through at… full throttle,” said Smith.
“That is deemed to be an improvement in the risk factor.”
No buyers
Ships normally have 24 hours to buy insurers’ quotes for listed area entry, but that has narrowed to 12 hours for Hormuz, Smith said.
“You line your ship up, you turn the engine on, you get ready to make a charge, then you’ll get your quote,” he said.
But currently “no one is buying,” he added, saying one underwriter reported to him less than 1% uptake for Hormuz-related policies.
U.S. insurance scheme
A U.S. shipping insurance initiative to boost Hormuz crossings will begin operating soon, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Thursday.
U.S. President Donald Trump previously announced the scheme would involve naval escorts and urged Western and other powers to step up. But they have proved unwilling while the conflict rages.
If a crossings framework with military protection could be agreed and proven effective, insurance “rates would tumble very, very quickly,” Smith predicted.
China wishes to strengthen economic cooperation with the United States to avoid “vicious competition”, Commerce Minister Wang Wentao told U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer, according to a readout released on Friday.
The two met on Thursday on the sidelines of a World Trade Organization (WTO) ministerial conference in Cameroon’s capital, less than two months ahead of U.S. President Donald Trump’s planned visit to Beijing.
“China is willing to strengthen multilateral and regional economic and trade cooperation with the United States,” Wang told Greer, according to a statement by the Beijing’s Ministry of Commerce.
The two powers must “properly handle the relationship between competition and cooperation” and “avoid vicious competition,” he said.
The world’s two largest economies were locked in a bitter trade battle last year before agreeing to a truce in October.
High-level talks in Paris this month between U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng also helped to ease tensions.
Nevertheless, issues including U.S. tariffs, a trade balance in China’s favor, and U.S. restrictions on exports of advanced technologies continue to threaten relations.
Wang expressed “grave concerns” on Thursday regarding recently announced U.S. trade investigations signaling the possibility of fresh tariffs.
Washington’s trade investigations target 60 economies, including China, and will look into “failures to take action on forced labor” and whether these burden or restrict U.S. commerce.
The White House has said Trump will visit Beijing on May 14-15, with the timing postponed by several weeks as a result of the war in the Middle East.
The head of the World Trade Organization on Thursday called for a sweeping overhaul of global trade rules, warning that the old multilateral system has fundamentally changed amid rising U.S. tariffs and geopolitical tensions.
Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala set out a list of problems facing the World Trade Organization – including the paralysis of its dispute-settlement mechanism – at the start of a four-day meeting of the body in Cameroon.
“The world order and multilateral system we used to know has irrevocably changed. We will not get it back … We must look to the future,” the WTO Director-General said.
Ahead of the session, some diplomats and trade officials warned that without an agreement on reforms, countries could start abandoning the ideal of a rules-based global trade system, and set their own regulations.
The gathering in Yaounde comes amid soaring concerns over the impact of the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran,and follows years of stalled multilateral trade deals.
Okonjo-Iweala said the body’s problems over decision-making needed to be tackled. Its current consensus-based model has been regularly stalled by objections from some countries. Some delegates are pushing for the organisation to let groups of members form agreements.
She also said there was a lack of transparency over which countries were using subsidies.
“Lack of transparency leads to lack of trust, and that breeds suspicions of unfairness and anti-competitive behaviours,” Okonjo-Iweala told delegates.
This contributed to a “vicious cycle” of mistrust which was holding back members from agreeing new rules and reforms, she added.
The U.S. supports reforms but is resisting a detailed work plan, while the EU, Britain, and China back one, internal reform documents seen by Reuters show.
“If we don’t achieve anything concrete, the WTO will lose its attractiveness and relevancy,” Swiss Ambassador Erwin Bollinger said before the session.
U.K. trade minister Chris Bryant warned of potential fragmentation if no deal is reached.
“My anxiety is if we ministers don’t get this week right, you might see a disorderly collapse of the WTO and some people writing a new rulebook,” Bryant said.
At the meeting, India is set to oppose U.S. efforts to extend a global ban on cross-border e-commerce duties, which New Delhi says developing nations should be able to impose.
U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer, in a draft statement seen in advance by Reuters, is expected to tell members the U.S. is “not interested” in a temporary extension to the ban, only a permanent extension.
Western nations’ attempts to negotiate a way to protect the Strait of Hormuz for energy shipping face a difficult reality: a similar effort in the Red Sea that started years earlier cost billions of dollars and ultimately failed against Yemen’s Houthis.
The costly Red Sea experience – four ships sunk, more than $1 billion in weapons expended, and a route that the shipping industry still largely avoids – looms over the more complex Strait of Hormuz, the shipping artery used by roughly a fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) supply and now blocked by Iran, a more tougher adversary than the Houthis.
Iran’s threats to the strait and its attacks on energy infrastructure in nearby Gulf nations have sent oil prices soaring in the worst disruption to oil and gas supplies in history.
Without the strait’s reopening, shortages will become more acute, threatening higher costs for energy, food and numerous other products worldwide.
‘No substitute’ for Hormuz
“There is no substitute for the Strait of Hormuz,” Kuwait Petroleum CEO Sheikh Nawaf Saud Al Sabah said in a fiery video call streamed to the CERAWeek energy conference in Houston on Tuesday.
“It is the world’s strait, under international law and practical reality.”
U.N. Security Council members on Tuesday were negotiating resolutions for protecting the strait, with some nations, such as Bahrain, taking a forceful stance that would authorize the use of “all necessary means” to protect the strait, which could mean the use of force.
Reuters interviewed 19 security and maritime experts who described the myriad challenges facing the U.S. and its allies in protecting the strait.
Iran has far more advanced military forces than the Houthis, an arsenal of cheap drones, floating mines and missiles, and easy access from its steep mountainous coast to the narrow waterway.
“Defending convoy operations in the Strait of Hormuz is significantly more challenging than in the Red Sea,” said retired Rear Adm. Mark Montgomery, who in 1988 was involved in U.S. tanker escorts through the Strait of Hormuz during the Iran-Iraq war.
That’s a big concern for U.S. President Donald Trump as he seeks to justify the Iran war ahead of the November midterm elections to inflation-weary American voters now facing gasoline at nearly $4 a gallon. The spike in energy prices is not expected to fully reverse until the waterway opens, analysts said.
Trump has been noncommittal about U.S. involvement, first saying the U.S. Navy will escort ships when needed, then more recently saying other nations should lead the effort.
Iran has blocked most ships from the maritime chokepoint since joint U.S.-Israeli attacks on Iran began on Feb. 28.
Iran is considering a proposal to levy fees on vessels that want to use the strait, an Iranian lawmaker told state media last week.
The Hormuz quagmire
The U.S. mission to protect Red Sea shipping from the Houthis launched in December 2023, with European nations joining in with their own operation a few months later.
The allies shot down hundreds of drones and missiles, but the Houthis still sank four ships between 2024 and 2025. Shippers now largely avoid the passageway, once home to 12% of world trade, opting for a much longer voyage around the Horn of Africa.
“It was a tactical and operational victory and a strategic draw, if not a strategic defeat,” said Joshua Tallis, a naval analyst at research firm CNA.
The danger zone around the Strait of Hormuz is up to five times bigger than the Houthis’ attack area around the Bab el-Mandeb Strait that flows into the Red Sea. Unlike the Houthis, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) is a professional military with its own weapons factories and access to funding.
Providing escorts for the strait would require as many as a dozen large warships such as destroyers, backed up by jets, drones and helicopters to account for the limitations created by the lack of space to maneuver, some military experts said.
Overhead air cover would be critical to protect against flying drones as well as explosive-laden manned or unmanned vessels that can easily blend into sea traffic.
“A destroyer can intercept missiles but cannot simultaneously sweep mines, counter drone-boat swarms from multiple bearings, and manage GPS disruption,” SSY analysts said.
Analysts believe Iran’s IRGC fighters have missile and drone stockpiles hidden in buildings and caves along the hundreds of miles of steep and mountainous coastline. In some places, the shore comes so close to ships that drones could swarm a vessel in as little as five to 10 minutes, experts said.
“There are ballistic missiles, drones, floating mines and even if you were able to destroy those three capacities, there are suicide operations,” said Adel Bakawan, director of the European Institute for Studies on the Middle East and North Africa.
Sea mines and heavily armed mini-submarines are a threat the U.S. did not encounter in the Red Sea, said Tom Sharpe, a retired Royal Navy commander. He said the stakes for meeting those threats are enormous.
“If (the Americans) lose a destroyer in this … that changes the calculus of everything. That’s 300 people,” Sharpe said, referring to potential deaths of U.S. sailors. There is no clear evidence that Iran mined the strait, U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said earlier this month, after reports that Iran had deployed about a dozen mines in the waterway.
A combination of mine clearing, military escorts and air patrols should eventually get strait traffic moving again, said Bryan Clark, an autonomous warfare expert at the Hudson Institute.
“You might have to do that for months before you have finally eroded the IRGC threat,” Clark said.
European Union lawmakers on Thursday gave a green light to the bloc’s trade deal with U.S. President Donald Trump, but with safeguards as Europe hopes to salvage its relations with Washington while also racing to diversify its ties around the globe.
Brussels and Washington last summer clinched a deal setting tariffs at 15% for most EU goods.
But Trump’s 2025 tariff blitz, including hefty levies on steel, aluminum and car parts, jolted the 27-country bloc into cultivating trade ties around the world, and it has since signed deals from South America to Australia and continues to pursue others.
But that doesn’t mean the EU intends to walk away from its 1.6 trillion euro ($1.9 trillion) relationship with its largest trade partner, the U.S.
A large majority of EU lawmakers agreed to cut EU tariffs on some U.S. imports, as a first step toward implementing the 2025 deal, but with additional safeguards.
“Today’s vote is an important procedural step and a political signal that the EU stands by its word,” EU economy chief Valdis Dombrovskis said in a parliamentary debate Thursday before the vote.
Before the U.S. tariff deal is implemented by the bloc, it still needs to be negotiated with EU states, although Brussels hopes talks will go quickly.
EU Trade Commissioner Maros Sefcovic welcomed the move as a “crucial step” and said he would meet U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer on the sidelines of a World Trade Organization (WTO) meeting in Cameroon on Friday.
Additional safeguards
The green light comes after months of delay as lawmakers resisted approving the accord due to transatlantic tensions over Greenland, and then put it on hold again following the U.S. Supreme Court’s ruling striking down many of Trump’s levies.
The ball started rolling again after the European Commission, in charge of EU trade policy, said it would stick to the pact despite the U.S. ruling and called on lawmakers to do the same, having received reassurances from Washington.
Trump, however, retaliated after the ruling with a new tariff regime, pushing EU lawmakers to tighten the existing agreement with numerous safeguards.
Lawmakers added several provisions in response, such as making the EU’s tariff reductions automatically lapse in March 2028, and tying tariff cuts on steel and aluminum goods to similar reductions by the U.S. side.
“Let’s not be naive. More Trump coercion and chaos will come, and that is exactly why we say today no free pass, no blank cheque,” EU lawmaker Kathleen Van Brempt said during Thursday’s debate.
‘Trump factor’
It is the EU’s vulnerability to the consequences of wars and other shocks that has pushed Commission chief Ursula von der Leyen to make diversifying trading partners a priority, to cut overdependence on the U.S. and China.
The frenzy began with a long-awaited accord signed with the South American Mercosur bloc in January. Weeks later, Brussels struck another pact with India and just this week clinched a stalled deal with Australia.
“The Trump factor sped up their conclusion, for us as well as for our partners,” economist Andre Sapir said.
Spurred by Trump, Sapir says the EU is pushing to create the world’s largest network of free trade areas, a strategy with a “defensive dimension” allowing it to resist trade “coercion.”
“This free trade network carries weight in our discussions with the two giants, the United States and China,” he said.
“These agreements are part of our arsenal,” Sapir, of the Bruegel think tank, added. “Our strategic weapons in the international order.”
The Middle East conflict is “testing the resilience of the global economy,” the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) said in a report released on Thursday, warning that rising energy prices and uncertainty now weigh on the outlook despite keeping the growth projection for this year unchanged.
Global growth is forecast to be at 2.9% this year, the Paris-based organization said, while it slightly shed the growth expectation for the next year from 3.1% to 3.0%.
The unpredictable trajectory of the Middle East conflict was driving up costs and dampening demand, offsetting the positive impetus from investment in new technologies and the momentum carried over from the previous year, it said.
“There’s a high level of uncertainty around the duration and the magnitude of the current conflict in the Middle East and that means that this outlook is subject to significant downside risks that could result in lower growth and higher inflation,” OECD chief Mathias Cormann told journalists.
The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and damage to energy infrastructure had caused a sharp rise in energy prices and disrupted supplies of other key materials such as fertilizer, according to the OECD.
The scale and duration of the conflict were highly uncertain, but a prolonged period of higher energy prices would significantly increase costs for businesses and consumer prices, with negative consequences for growth, the OECD said.
Interim projections
The projections in the OECD’s interim Economic Outlook are conditional on a technical assumption that energy market disruption moderates over time, with oil, gas and fertilizer prices declining gradually from mid-2026 onward.
The 2026 projection is unchanged from the OECD’s December forecast, but preliminary indications since then had suggested global gross domestic product (GDP) growth could have been upwardly revised by around 0.3 percentage points in 2026 had the conflict not escalated, a revision that has been entirely erased by the impact of the fighting.
With energy prices now soaring, G-20 inflation is projected to be 1.2 percentage points higher than previously expected in 2026 at 4.0%, before easing to 2.7% in 2027.
In an adverse scenario where energy prices peak higher and stay elevated longer, global growth would be 0.5 percentage points lower by the second year of the shock, and inflation would be 0.9 percentage points higher, the OECD said.
U.S. outlook
The war is compounding an already complex picture of trade.
U.S. bilateral tariff rates have declined following the U.S. Supreme Court ruling against tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, with particularly large reductions for several emerging market economies, including Brazil, China and India.
Nonetheless, the overall U.S. effective tariff rate remains well above that prevailing before 2025.
On individual economies, annual GDP growth in the U.S. is projected to moderate from 2.0% in 2026 to 1.7% in 2027, as strong AI-related investment is gradually offset by a slowdown in real income growth and consumer spending. The OECD had pencilled in a forecast of 1.7% this year and 1.9% for 2027 in December, before the Supreme Court ruling.
U.S. headline inflation is now forecast to hit 4.2% in 2026, up 1.2 percentage points from the previous projection.
Diverging paths
In China, growth is projected to ease to 4.4% in 2026 and 4.3% in 2027, both in line with the OECD’s previous forecasts.
Euro area GDP growth is anticipated to slip to 0.8% in 2026, as higher energy prices weigh on activity, before increasing to 1.2% in 2027, helped by stronger defense spending. That marked a sizeable downgrade from December when the OECD had forecast 1.2% growth in 2026 and 1.4% in 2027.
In Japan, growth is projected at 0.9% in both 2026 and 2027, both unchanged, as the rising cost of energy imports offsets robust business investment.
The OECD urged central banks to remain vigilant and called on governments to ensure any support measures for households were well-targeted and time-limited.
For Türkiye, it forecasted the growth rate of 3.3% this year and 3.8% in 2027, respectively.
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