A panel in the Turkish capital concluded that NATO remains a resilient and adaptive alliance despite mounting global challenges, emphasizing its capacity to evolve in response to a rapidly transforming security environment, even as the alliance traverses one of its rockiest periods in decades, marked by internal divisions, geopolitical conflicts and debates over its future role.

The panel, titled “NATO and the Changing Security Environment,” was held in Ankara in cooperation with the Presidency’s Directorate of Communications and the Foundation for Political, Economic and Social Research (SETA). It brought together international experts to assess the alliance’s trajectory amid mounting global uncertainty.

Moderated by professor Murat Yeşiltaş of Ankara Social Sciences University, the panel featured Akif Çağatay Kılıç, chief advisor to the president on foreign policy and security; Italian scholar Valeria Giannotta; Patrice Moyeuvre from the French Institute for International and Strategic Affairs (IRIS); and specialist Yavuz Türkgenci.

Türkgenci said NATO has faced challenges for more than 70 years and “has somehow solved its problems,” stressing that its evolution can be understood through its strategic concepts. “NATO always tries to overcome problems by creating concepts related to changing issues,” he said, adding the alliance is once again “facing the same problems” in a new global context.

The remarks come as NATO grapples with a sharp deterioration between Washington and its European allies in recent months, including tensions over the U.S.-Israel war on Iran, disagreements among allies on burden-sharing and U.S. President Donald Trump’s threats to leave the alliance. Analysts have argued the alliance is facing a “crisis point,” with U.S. criticism and European hesitation exposing fractures in trans-Atlantic unity.

Referring to NATO’s latest strategy following the Russia-Ukraine war, Türkgenci described it as “actually a reaction to the war,” suggesting “there may be a new supplement or document published in Ankara” as the alliance adapts further.

Giannotta argued the current environment reflects bigger structural change. “I think there is a transformation, rather than a temporary crisis,” he said, pointing to a “multipolar system” and rising conflicts. “There are areas where violence is escalating, presenting certain challenges to NATO,” he added, while highlighting the “very important central role of the U.S.”

Recent developments appear to support this assessment. U.S. President Donald Trump has repeatedly criticized NATO as “very disappointing” and even raised the possibility of withdrawing, while European allies debate greater strategic autonomy and defense responsibilities.

At the same time, NATO has sought to adapt through increased defense spending and new initiatives, including efforts to strengthen its presence in strategic regions such as the Arctic and to boost military capabilities across Europe.

Moyeuvre recalled that NATO’s future was once in doubt after the Cold War. “NATO did not disintegrate,” he said, attributing this to political trust among member states.

“It’s very easy to dismantle something, but very difficult to build it, especially if we’re talking about something that works,” he said, adding that NATO remains “the only organization” capable of coordinating multinational missions. “This is something no other organization can do.”

“NATO continues to be an extremely reliable and stable organization,” he said, reinforcing the panel’s central conclusion that despite mounting pressures, the alliance retains its core strength as a unifying security framework.

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The Presidency’s Directorate of Communications and Istanbul-based think tank Foundation for Political, Economic and Social Research (SETA) hosted the “Ankara Moment: Strategic Positioning For A Resilient Alliance” conference in the Turkish capital on Thursday.

The event was an opportunity for an insight into Türkiye’s role in the alliance, whose leaders will gather in Ankara within months for a critical summit.

Addressing the conference, Defense Minister Yaşar Güler said Ankara would remain a reliable ally of NATO. “We will continue as an active contributor, a strategic balance actor and a contributor to the alliance’s transformation process,” he stressed.

Türkiye and the U.S. are key members of NATO, with the former having the alliance’s second-biggest army. Under President Donald Trump, however, Washington is considering an exit from the alliance.

NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte said Trump was “clearly disappointed” with several member states of the trans-Atlantic alliance during a White House meeting on Wednesday. Speaking to broadcaster CNN, Rutte described the talks as an open discussion between “two good friends,” but did not disclose whether a potential U.S. withdrawal from NATO was discussed.

Trump, meanwhile, said on his Truth Social platform: “NATO WASN’T THERE WHEN WE NEEDED THEM, AND THEY WON’T BE THERE IF WE NEED THEM AGAIN.” The U.S. president wrote that allies should remember Greenland, which he described as a “BIG, POORLY RUN, PIECE OF ICE.”

Trump’s repeated threats earlier this year to potentially annex Greenland, a Danish territory of strategic importance, have strained relations between Europe and the U.S. In recent days, comments by Trump raised concerns about a possible U.S. exit from NATO, amid his criticism of what he perceives as insufficient support from alliance partners for the Iran conflict. Any withdrawal would require a two-thirds majority in the U.S. Senate, which is considered highly unlikely.

Güler said Türkiye has been one of the “rare” allies of NATO that can manage rapid force response with a 360-degree approach, in addition to its military strength in the region, coupled with NATO’s deterrence and defense concept. He noted that Türkiye has evolved from a “flank country” of the Cold War era to a central ally able to provide security to Europe, reiterating its efficient role in NATO missions and operations from Afghanistan to Bosnia-Herzegovina, from the Mediterranean Sea to the Baltic region.

Pointing out that Türkiye is a strong and respected member of the alliance, as well as the country with the second-largest army, Güler noted that it fulfills its responsibilities in military training, exercises, operations and other duties with great success, setting an example for others.

“Türkiye is not a country that merely contributes forces to NATO missions. It is one of the primary allies increasing the operational efficiency of the alliance across a wide range of areas, including training, joint planning, exercises, and command-and-control processes. The most recent and concrete example of this is the Steadfast Dart-26 exercise. We participated in this comprehensive NATO exercise with a joint force of 2,067 personnel and the Naval Task Group. The deployment of these elements to Europe, 6,450 kilometers away from our country, their active role in NATO and invitation exercises in the region, and their participation in Flexible Deterrence Options activities have been the clearest indicators of our support for NATO’s unity and solidarity,” he said.

On July 7-8, Türkiye will host the leaders’ summit of the alliance for the second time in more than two decades. Heads of state and top figures from member countries will be in Ankara for the summit. Some 6,000 participants are expected to attend the event. Preparations are underway in the Turkish capital for the event, where alliance leaders will likely discuss its future as conflicts proliferate across the world, forcing them to bolster defense expenditures.

Türkiye this year marks the 74th anniversary of its admission to NATO. It is the only country in NATO’s “southern flank” with a sizeable military power and a gateway to the Middle East and wider Asia. Security of the Black Sea also largely depends on Türkiye, especially amid the Russia-Ukraine conflict, which threatens maritime security.

In the last summit in The Hague last year, NATO members agreed to spend some 5% of their GDP in defense expenditures by 2035. Ankara will be the stage where the first progress reports on this massive investment drive are measured. A recent NATO report showed military spending rose by a fifth year-on-year in 2025 to $574 billion. Trump has repeatedly sought higher defense spending by the alliance’s 32 member states, pushing Europe to take primary responsibility for its own security. With the increase by NATO’s European members and Canada, all allies are now devoting more than 2% of gross domestic product to military spending, a goal set in 2014 for 2024, a NATO report said. In presenting the report, Rutte said he expected “Allies to show they are on a clear and credible path towards the 5%” when they hold their next summit in Ankara. The headline target breaks down as 3.5% on core defense spending and 1.5% on a broader range of areas such as infrastructure and cybersecurity. Only three countries met the 3.5% goal last year, Poland, Latvia and Lithuania.

All NATO countries increased their military spending last year, but three saw a slight drop in the share of spending relative to their GDP. The U.S. went from 3.30% in 2024 to 3.19%, Czechia from 2.07% to 2.01%, and Hungary from 2.21% to 2.07%. July’s summit will also be the venue for support to Ukraine, where member countries will likely review and update their commitments to help the country.

For Türkiye, the summit will additionally serve as a platform to promote its flourishing defense industry. In the past two decades, the country evolved from a mere buyer of defense technologies to an exporter of everything defense-related, from unmanned aerial vehicles to naval platforms, air defense technologies, etc.

Türkiye seeks to expand its role in NATO as a power broker, and the summit will cement it. It emerged as a key mediator in the Russia-Ukraine conflict and nowadays works for a peaceful resolution to the U.S.-Israel-Iran war. Moreover, the country aims to integrate itself more into the security architecture of Europe, which includes the bulk of NATO member states. Recently, the Ministry of National Defense announced that Ankara applied for the establishment of a multinational corps. Although it has started courting NATO’s traditional rivals more in recent years, Türkiye is firmly aligned with the alliance, as its leaders repeatedly confirmed.

Commitment to Article 5

Güler said that they expected the Ankara summit to be a platform where the alliance’s partners reaffirmed their commitment to Article 5 of the treaty, so that the NATO of the future can provide a multi-dimensional security ecosystem.

Article 5 says an attack on one member of NATO requires collective defense action by all members. Essentially, this will protect Türkiye from attacks by actors outside NATO. Speculations swirl that the next target of Israel, whose aggressive expansionism threatens the wider region, may be Türkiye. Pundits say Türkiye may invoke Article 5 in the face of such an attack, though it is unclear how the U.S. will act in he case of an attack by a non-NATO ally on a NATO ally.

“It is expected that allies concretely demonstrate the progress they have made regarding defense spending commitments and the military capability targets assigned to them, identify areas of cooperation that will facilitate reaching new capability targets and strengthening an innovative, sustainable defense industry ecosystem, and approve the defense and deterrence preparations to be presented to our leaders. Furthermore, we hope the European Union will abandon security approaches that exclude non-EU NATO allies, primarily our country, and return to its position of supporting NATO,” Güler said.

“Otherwise, we assess that this approach by the European Union will cause more damage to Europe’s security and resilience than a reduction of U.S. forces in Europe. The truth is that Türkiye, with its strong defense capabilities and industry, can contribute even more to Europe’s security and defense. We know many of our European friends are aware of this, and we believe others will analyze this well and exhibit a reasonable approach,” he said.

Only four days after Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan’s visit to Damascus, Syrian Foreign Minister Asaad al-Shaibani arrived in Ankara for talks.

No details were released about the content of the talks, but the visit signals rapidly advancing collaboration between the two neighbors.

Turkish-Syrian relations, frozen during the civil war, took a new turn after forces led by incumbent President Ahmed al-Sharaa led a revolution in December 2024 to overthrow the oppressive regime of Bashar Assad, a close ally of Russia. Within one year, Ankara-Damascus ties gained an unprecedented momentum, with deals serving the interests of both countries.

During his visit to Syria on Sunday, Fidan also attended a trilateral summit with al-Sharaa and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, who flew to the Syrian capital aboard a plane lent by Türkiye he visited on Saturday.

Syria, like Türkiye, strived to stay away from the U.S.-Israel-Iran war despite their close proximity to the conflict that began on Feb. 28. The conflict appears frozen for now with a cease-fire in place, but the two neighbors remain at risk of spillover of violence.

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Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan said Ankara is intensifying efforts for lasting regional stability through coordinated action with its neighbors, while warning against Israel’s attempts to undermine diplomatic initiatives, during a joint news conference in Ankara with Syrian Foreign Minister Asaad al-Shaibani.

Speaking in the capital Ankara, Fidan stressed that Türkiye views its security and stability as complementary to Syria’s, highlighting the importance of close cooperation amid escalating regional tensions.

He noted that recent developments have required greater coordination among regional actors, as conflicts continue to test the region’s resilience. Referring to the U.S. and Israeli-led war against Iran that began on Feb. 28, Fidan said it has posed one of the most serious challenges in recent history, with global repercussions.

Türkiye, under the leadership of President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, has maintained close diplomatic engagement with neighboring countries and international partners to help end the conflict, he added, welcoming a cease-fire reached with the support of Pakistan’s initiative.

Fidan underscored that upcoming talks in Pakistan will require a constructive, flexible and patient approach from all sides, urging actors to draw lessons from recent crises.

He also warned against Israel’s actions aimed at sabotaging negotiation efforts, calling for a calm and rational response while stressing that the international community must remain vigilant.

“Israel is carrying out its genocide in Gaza into Lebanon,” Fidan said, expressing hope that a cease-fire would become permanent and extend to Lebanon as well.

Highlighting broader regional dynamics, Fidan voiced support for normalization efforts between Iran and Gulf countries, emphasizing the need to establish a durable peace and security architecture.

Turning to Syria, he described the country’s stability as a cornerstone of the region, noting that the Syrian people have endured 14 years of conflict and made significant progress toward political and economic reconstruction following what he called a historic turning point in December 2024.

Fidan said Türkiye’s recent engagements with Syria are driven by the goal of shielding the country from ongoing regional crises and ensuring long-term stability.

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Parliament Speaker Numan Kurtulmuş confirmed Parliament has a say in by-elections under the Constitution, as the main opposition pushes for it, while the ruling AK Party downplays the need.

Kurtulmuş’s remarks on Thursday come after President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan ruled out the possibility of a by-election or an early vote.

The speaker said on Thursday that decisions on by-elections fall solely under the authority of the Turkish Parliament and must comply strictly with constitutional provisions.

“The rules for by-elections are clear,” Kurtulmuş said, emphasizing that any decision requires approval by the General Assembly of Parliament and that the speaker’s office holds no discretionary power in initiating such a process.

Most recently, after the Cabinet meeting on Monday, Erdoğan also rejected speculation about early elections, accusing the opposition of attempting to create an artificial political agenda.

“Neither our government nor our nation has early or by-elections in its near-term political plans,” Erdoğan said. He added that the administration remains focused on economic growth and shielding the country from regional instability.

Türkiye is navigating a complex geopolitical environment marked by ongoing conflicts in the Middle East, Erdoğan noted, stressing that the government’s priority is to maintain stability and strengthen the economy rather than engage in what he described as “manufactured debates.”

In contrast, opposition leaders reiterated calls for elections, arguing that the country needs to return to the ballot box.

Republican People’s Party (CHP) leader Özgür Özel also said Thursday that he would support both early general elections and simultaneous local elections.

“If necessary, we are ready,” he said, proposing that municipal councils could resign collectively to trigger new votes.

Özel made the remarks following a meeting with Good Party (IP) leader Müsavat Dervişoğlu at the party’s headquarters in Ankara. The two leaders also discussed the economic impact of recent regional tensions, including attacks on Iran, and shared a report outlining proposed measures.

Dervişoğlu signaled his party’s support for any election scenario. “If there is a vote on by-elections, we would vote ‘yes,’” he said.

Under the Turkish Constitution, elections are held every five years, and adjusting this schedule requires a constitutional amendment. An early election, however, can be possible if other parties agree and if Parliament undergoes a reshuffle. If the number of lawmakers falls by 5%, or 30 deputies, Parliament is obliged to call elections for those constituencies within three months. Eight seats are currently vacant in Parliament for various reasons, and media outlets reported that the CHP may propose the resignation of 22 of its Parliament members to widen the gap, but such resignations can only be accepted by a decision of the General Assembly. The ruling Justice and Development Party (AK Party), which holds a majority in Parliament, will be decisive as well.

The CHP has been pushing for an early election since the arrest of its mayor in Istanbul on charges of corruption, though the government has dismissed the calls for rescheduling of the 2028 general election.

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Şahin Biba, a candidate of the ruling Justice and Development Party (AK Party), was elected as the acting mayor of Türkiye’s fourth-largest city, Bursa, on Thursday, days after his predecessor was arrested on charges of corruption.

A municipal assembly member, Biba secured 61 votes in the third round of the election in the northwestern province. The vote was marred by riots instigated by members of the main opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP). Biba succeeds Mustafa Bozbey of the CHP. Authorities banned entry to the city hall during the election as assembly members cast their vote, but CHP officials attempted to force their way into the building, confronting riot police. Some 200 people broke a glass door leading to the second floor of the building after making their way into the building through a parking garage.

Speaking after the election, Biba called “everyone to respect the democratic process and the public will be reflected in the election.”

“You have to respect the will of the majority,” he said, pointing out that the People’s Alliance of the AK Party and the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) retained it at the assembly.

Bursa has been a traditional stronghold of the AK Party since 2004. Bozbey, formerly a member of the Democratic Left Party (DSP), which governed the city before the start of the lengthy AK Party tenure, won the 2024 elections. He was detained along with dozens of others on charges of running a criminal organization, bribery, money laundering and zoning violations. After his arrest, he was fired from the office, necessitating a by-election.

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