Economy
IMF ups 2026 outlook but flags risks from trade flare-ups, AI
An unexpectedly sturdy world economy is likely to shrug off President Donald Trump’s protectionist trade policies this year, thanks partly to a surge of investment in artificial intelligence in North America and Asia, the International Monetary Fund said in a report out Monday.
The 191-nation lending organization expects that global growth will hold steady at 3.3% this year, up from the 3.1% it had forecast for 2026 back in October. This would be the same pace of growth as in 2025.
The fund forecast 2027 growth at 3.2%, unchanged from the previous forecast. It has revised global growth rates higher since last July in response to trade deals that have reduced Trump’s tariff rates that peaked in April 2025.
“We find that global growth remains quite resilient,” IMF chief economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas told reporters, adding that the fund’s 2025 and 2026 growth forecasts now exceed predictions made in October 2024, before Trump was elected to a second term.
“So, in a sense, the global economy is shaking off the trade and tariff disruptions of 2025 and is coming out ahead of what we were expecting before it all started,” Gourinchas said.
He said businesses have been able to adapt to higher U.S. tariff rates by rerouting supply chains, while trade agreements have lowered some duties and China has shifted exports to non-U.S. markets. The latest IMF forecasts assume an effective U.S. tariff rate of 18.5%, down from about 25% in the fund’s April 2025 forecast.
The IMF estimated U.S. growth for 2026 at 2.4%, up 0.3 percentage points from October, due in part to a big push from massive investment in artificial intelligence infrastructure, including data centers, powerful AI chips and power. The IMF edged its 2027 growth forecast a tenth of a point lower to 2%.
The IMF also said technology investment was boosting activity in Spain, which saw a 0.3 percentage point upgrade to its 2026 GDP forecast to 2.3%, and in Britain, where the IMF kept its forecast unchanged at 1.3% for 2026.
AI boom poses risks
Gourinchas said the AI boom poses risks for heightened inflation if it continues at its breakneck pace. But he added that if expectations that AI-driven productivity gains and profits are not realized, this could spark a correction in high market valuations that could crimp demand.
The IMF report lists AI as among risks that are tilted to the downside, along with disruptions to supply chains and markets from geopolitical tensions and new flare-ups in trade tensions.
A Supreme Court decision against Trump’s broad tariffs under an emergency sanctions law, expected in the coming days or weeks, “would inject another dose of trade policy uncertainty into the global economy” if Trump resurrects new tariffs under other trade laws, Gourinchas said.
But the IMF said that AI represents significant upside for the global economy if the investment surge leads to rapid adoption and productivity gains are realized and boost business dynamism and innovation.
“As a result, global growth may be lifted by as much as 0.3 percentage points in 2026 and between 0.1 and 0.8 percentage points per year in the medium term, depending on the speed of adoption and improvements in AI readiness globally,” it added.
Among forecasts for other major economies, the IMF said China’s 2026 growth would reach 4.5%, down from a stronger-than-expected 5% performance in 2025, but 0.3 percentage points higher than October estimates.
The upgrade reflects a 10 percentage point reduction in U.S. tariff rates on Chinese goods for a year, as well as continued diversion of exports to other markets such as Southeast Asia and Europe.
Gourinchas said that China risks running into more protectionist trade policies unless it develops a more balanced growth model that relies less on exports and more on internal demand.
Europe projection slightly up
The IMF forecast eurozone growth at 1.3% for 2026, up 0.1 percentage point from the October estimate, driven by increased public spending in Germany and stronger performances in Spain and Ireland.
The fund kept its 2027 eurozone growth forecast unchanged at 1.4%, noting that planned European increases in defense spending would materialize only in later years.
The projection for the German economy has been lifted to 1.1% for 2026. It is 0.2 percentage points above the IMF’s previous estimate but remains under the German government’s own prediction of a 1.3% expansion.
Germany’s economy, Europe’s largest, rebounded marginally last year after consecutive years of recession, but it remained well behind its partners in the Group of Seven advanced economies, with growth hitting just 0.2%.
However, experts expect activity to pick up this year due to a massive program of government investment in defense and infrastructure, as well as rising domestic demand linked to stable inflation and wage rises.
Japan also saw a slight upgrade to 2026 growth due to its new government’s fiscal stimulus package, but Brazil was a notable outlier to the improvement trend, with a 0.3 percentage point reduction in its 2026 growth rate to 1.6% since October. IMF officials attributed the downgrade largely to tighter monetary policy needed to fight a flare-up in inflation last year.
India, which has supplanted China as the world’s fastest-growing major economy, is expected to see growth decelerate from 7.3% last year to 6.4% in 2026.
Inflation to keep falling
The IMF said that globally, inflation was forecast to continue to decline, from 4.1% in 2025 to 3.8% in 2026 and 3.4% in 2027. Gourinchas said this leaves room for a more accommodative monetary policy that will help underpin growth.
Looking ahead, Gourinchas stressed the need for central bank independence so that they can pursue their mandate of price stability and financial stability.
He did not comment on an ongoing U.S. Justice Department probe into Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell.
But he noted that the importance of the U.S. dollar for the international monetary system means it is “even more important” that the Fed is able to do its job and do it well.
Türkiye is seeking to meet high global expectations as it prepares to host COP31, with Environment, Urbanization and Climate Change Minister Murat Kurum saying Ankara is determined to steer this year’s U.N. climate summit toward concrete, results-driven outcomes through dialogue, consensus and coordinated international action.
Speaking at a press conference in Istanbul alongside Simon Stiell, the executive secretary of U.N. Climate Change, Kurum, who is set to chair COP31, described Türkiye as the “natural center” of the global fight against climate change. Andre Correa do Lago, president of COP30, also attended the briefing.
Fully known as the 2026 United Nations Climate Change Conference, or Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), the event is set to take place from Nov. 9 to Nov. 20 in Türkiye’s coastal city of Antalya.
Türkiye, in partnership with Australia, secured a bid to host the summit at the last climate talks in Brazil’s Belem.
As a first-time host and current president of the event, Türkiye will also organize a two-day World Leaders’ Summit. It will also be responsible for preparing official communications for the COP31 conference, overseeing operational and logistical arrangements, and appointing the U.N. High-Level Climate Champion, among other duties.
Australia, on the other hand, is assigned to “leading the negotiations agenda.” Moreover, building on the efforts of the COP30 Brazilian Presidency, Türkiye and Australia will work together, and with Pacific island countries, to strengthen and elevate the action agenda.
Speaking on Thursday, Kurum said they aim to carry out the COP31 process with a results-oriented approach. “We truly want COP31 to be successful,” he stressed.
He started his speech by noting that COP meetings “are very critical and valuable,” as “we are experiencing the devastating effects of the climate crisis more severely by each passing day.”
High expectations
“As Türkiye and Australia, we will work as one body with an understanding based on consultation and cooperation. We are all aware that the world’s expectations from COP31 are high,” he said.
“Our responsibility is to read these expectations correctly, to build trust among the parties and to produce results.”
“There is something we always say. We do not see COP31 merely as a conference, and no one should see it that way,” he maintained.
According to Kurum, Türkiye’s approach to COP31 is “clear.”
“We will not be a single voice but will engage in dialogue, we will act not with division but with consensus, and we will prefer action, not stagnation, in order to achieve results,” he said.
Emphasizing the understanding of responsibility that draws from the common memory of civilizations and reminds humanity of its ancient relationship with nature, the minister said they are approaching the talks with the idea and understanding that “they would hear, make heard and encourage everyone’s voice.”
Moreover, he described that climate change is no longer just an environmental crisis but instead “an existential issue,” which he said is affecting every aspect of human life, from trade and transportation to industry, food, energy and education.
At the same time, he suggested they would “respect countries’ development priorities,” while also pointing to the issue of financing, which is “of great importance in terms of advancing implementation.”
“Again, our local governments, our private sector, financial institutions and non-governmental organizations must continue to be the main actors of this process,” he further said.
Similarly, he underscored the significance of the Zero Waste Movement carried out under the auspices of first lady Emine Erdoğan. The initiative “has shown the entire world that climate action does not have to remain at the level of rhetoric, but can be carried into a results-oriented transformation framework,” according to Kurum.
Rebuilding trust in multilateralism
Emphasizing that as the COP31 presidency, they are determined to rebuild trust in multilateralism with “a strong vision focused on producing results,” the minister also drew attention to the nature and standing “with humanity.”
“At a time when climate change is sweeping across the entire world, Türkiye stands with humanity,” he proclaimed.
“The world is our common home, and we have nowhere else to go, no other home, no other shelter. With this awareness, we say that Türkiye is the natural center of the struggle to be waged against the global climate crisis,” he said.
Also expressing that Türkiye will be “a bridge” bringing together the north and the south, the east and the west, developed economies and developing societies, Kurum went on to say that “Türkiye is a country that has assumed the leadership of global climate justice, has proven and earned this claim by standing on the right side of humanity at all critical moments in history.”
“The future will take shape here, in Anatolia. A road map for a livable future for all humanity will be presented from here,” he added.
“We cannot stop, because those beautiful people on the Pacific islands that face the risk of being submerged are waiting for us.”
Climate action, investment
Stiell, for his part, said that one thing “is clear,” as he suggested that COP31 in Antalya will take place in extraordinary times, the times he described as “a new world disorder.”
“This is a period of instability and insecurity. Of strong arms and trade wars. The very concept of international cooperation is under attack. These challenges are real and serious,” he said.
“But climate action can deliver stability in an unstable world.”
“In the face of the current chaos, we can, and must, drive forward a new era of international climate cooperation,” he urged, referring to previous action and decisions and suggesting that “nations can deliver change on a major scale when they stand together.”
Stiell, in particular, addressed the investments in renewable energy. He cited that in the decade since the Paris Agreement, “clean energy investment is up tenfold.”
He said that in 2025, despite all the economic uncertainty and political headwinds, the global transition kept surging forward as the clean energy investment “kept growing strongly, and was more than double that of fossil fuels.”
“Renewables overtook coal as the world’s top electricity source,” he added.
“This is an era to speed up and scale up,” he also said.
“Climate action is indisputably in every nation’s self-interest.”
Türkiye’s current account balance registered a deficit of $7.25 billion (TL 317.11 billion) in December, lifting the annual gap to $25.2 billion, mainly driven by a foreign trade gap, official data showed on Friday.
Vice President Cevdet Yılmaz and Treasury and Finance Minister Mehmet Şimşek said the balance still maintained sustainable levels despite challenging global conditions.
The shortfall was more than double the deficit in 2024 and up from a gap of $4 billion in November, according to the Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye (CBRT).
The deficit in December marked the highest level in eight months. Surveys had estimated a gap of around $5.2 billion in December and about $24 billion in 2025 as a whole.
Yılmaz said the 2025 shortfall was consistent with the government’s Medium-Term Program (MTP) forecasts.
“Our macrofinancial stability continues to strengthen with the current account deficit remaining at sustainable levels, the decreasing country risk premium, and the increasing sovereign credit rating outlook,” he wrote on the social media platform X.
The goods deficit, which constitutes a major part of the current account balance, amounted to $69.7 billion last year, while services recorded a net surplus of $63.5 billion.
The primary and secondary income realized a net deficit of $18.5 billion and $528 million, respectively, the CBRT data showed.
On a monthly basis, the balance excluding gold and energy registered a deficit of $691 million in December.
The foreign trade posted a deficit of $7.44 billion, while services saw a surplus of $2.65 billion, with net travel income at $2.53 billion under this item.
Net outflows from direct investment amounted to $465 million, while portfolio investments posted a net inflow of $73 million. Official reserves decreased by $4.13 billion.
For the end of 2025, the government had revised down its current account deficit-to-GDP ratio expectation to 1.4%.
Şimşek said the annual deficit was expected to have amounted to 1.6% of gross domestic product in 2025. The gap had reached 5% of GDP in mid-2023, before declining to 0.8% in 2024.
Excluding gold, the balance posted an average deficit of 3% of GDP in the 2003-2023 period, Şimşek said X. He recalled a surplus of 0.2% in 2024 and said a limited deficit of around 0.3% was projected for 2025.
For 2026, Şimşek said the moderate course of energy prices, an improving outlook among main trading partners, and a supportive euro/dollar parity are expected to contribute positively to current account targets.
“We continue to implement structural steps that will make our gains in the current account balance permanent,” he said.
Yılmaz said the current account deficit is expected to maintain its “moderate” course throughout 2026 and “will continue to support the disinflation process, which we are reinforcing through structural reforms.”
One of the world’s largest logistics companies, DP World, announced on Friday a new chairperson, replacing the outgoing head following mounting pressure over his alleged ties to Jeffrey Epstein.
The announcement by the government’s Dubai Media Office did not specifically name Sultan Ahmed bin Sulayem. However, it said that Essa Kazim was named DP World’s chairperson and Yuvraj Narayan was named group CEO.
Those were positions held by bin Sulayem, one of the Middle East’s most prominent business figures. He’s among the highest-profile executives to face scrutiny and be removed from senior roles following the recent release of the Epstein files.
DP World has long been a pillar of the economy of the Middle Eastern city. It’s a logistics giant that runs the Jebel Ali port in Dubai and operates terminals in other ports around the world.
The announcement comes a day after financial groups in Canada and the United Kingdom said they’ve paused future ventures with DP World after newly released emails showed a yearslong friendship between bin Sulayem and Epstein.
The emails – some referencing sexual massages and escorts – surfaced in the cache of Epstein-related documents recently released by the U.S. Department of Justice.
Epstein killed himself in jail in 2019 after he was charged with sex trafficking. The emails do not appear to implicate bin Sulayem in Epstein’s alleged crimes. DP World did not respond to request for comment.
Bin Sulayem previously had a larger role as chair of the Dubai World conglomerate, which at the time included the property developer Nakheel. That company was behind the creation of human-made islands in the shape of palm trees and a map of the world that helped cement Dubai’s status as an up-and-coming global city.
The state-run WAM news agency also reported that Dubai’s ruler, Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum, named a new head of the city-state’s Ports Customs and Free Zone Corporation. That also was a position held by bin Sulayem.
The topics in the emails between Epstein and bin Sulayem range widely, including President Donald Trump, sex and theology.
In one email from 2013, Epstein wrote to bin Sulayem that “you are one of my most trusted friends in very sense of the word, you have never let me down.”
In response, bin Sulayem said, “Thank you my friend I am off the sample a fresh 100% female Russian at my yacht.”
That same year, bin Sulayem sent Epstein an email showing a menu for a massage business which included sexual offerings. Two years later, bin Sulayem texted Epstein a link to a porn site, and, in 2017, Epstein sent bin Sulayem a link to an escort website.
Epstein e-mailed with bin Sulayem about Steve Bannon, the Trump acolyte, in 2018, saying “you will like him.” In another exchange, bin Sulayem asked Epstein about an event where it appeared Trump would be in attendance.
Foreign direct investment (FDI) into Türkiye increased by 12.2% year-over-year in 2025 despite a relatively stagnant global investment climate, official data showed on Friday.
The FDI inflow reached $13.1 billion (TL 572.99 billion) last year, according to data released by the Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye (CBRT), bucking the broader trend seen in many developing economies.
Among the top sources of FDI into Türkiye in 2025, the Netherlands ranked first with $2.86 billion, followed by Luxembourg with $1.16 billion and Kazakhstan with nearly $1.14 billion.
Other major investors included Germany, the United States, France, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Switzerland, the United Kingdom and Ireland.
On a sectoral basis, the data pointed to a concentration of investment in production, trade and technology-oriented activities.
Wholesale and retail trade attracted the largest share of last year’s FDI, driven mainly by investments in e-commerce platforms. The sector accounted for 32% of total inflows, or $3.05 billion.
Manufacturing followed closely with a 31% share, totaling just over $3 billion, while the information and communications sector ranked third with a 14% share, or $1.31 billion.
According to the U.N. Trade and Development (UNCTAD) Global Investment Trends Monitor, global FDI flows showed only a cautious recovery in 2025. While inflows to developed economies and financial centers increased, investment into developing countries declined by about 2%.
Against this backdrop, Türkiye stood out with double-digit growth, outperforming global peers.
Türkiye’s performance is attributed to reforms aimed at improving the investment climate, including the launch of projects under the HIT-30 program, updates to the incentive system, the implementation of climate legislation and steps to advance digitalization.
Ahmet Burak Dağlıoğlu, head of the Investment and Finance Office of the Presidency of Türkiye, said Türkiye’s performance reflected its structural advantages and reform agenda at a time when global investment decisions remained cautious.
“Investments by global technology brands and funding directed to technology startups stood out in 2025. Investments in manufacturing and logistics also strengthened Türkiye’s position in global supply chains,” Dağlıoğlu said in a statement.
He added that Türkiye’s production capacity, skilled workforce and strategic location continue to enhance its appeal as “a global connectivity hub” for international investors.
Türkiye and the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (TRNC) will continue to advance cooperation and finalize a new economic agreement by the end of March, Vice President Cevdet Yılmaz said on Thursday.
Yılmaz’s remarks came after meeting TRNC Prime Minister Ünal Üstel in Ankara. The vice president described the talks as productive and said work is underway on a new economic and financial cooperation framework.
“Our aim is clear. We want to carry the TRNC toward a more prosperous and stronger future,” Yılmaz said.
He stressed that ties between Türkiye and the TRNC are “not ordinary relations between two countries,” adding that Türkiye, as a guarantor state, “will continue to stand by the TRNC.”
Yılmaz said the current cooperation protocol has been implemented effectively and that both sides aim to complete negotiations on a new agreement by late March.
The Mediterranean island of Cyprus was divided in 1974 after a Greek Cypriot coup aimed at Greece’s annexation. This led to Türkiye’s military intervention as a guarantor power to protect Turkish Cypriots from persecution and violence.
The TRNC was founded in 1983. The country is fully recognized only by Türkiye, which does not recognize the Greek Cypriot administration in the south.
The island has seen an on-and-off peace process in recent years, including a failed 2017 initiative in Crans-Montana, Switzerland, under the auspices of the guarantor countries.
The Greek Cypriot administration joined the European Union in 2004, the same year that the Greek side rejected a United Nations plan to resolve the dispute in a referendum.
The Turkish side strictly adheres to a two-state solution based on sovereign equality. The Greek Cypriots are seeking a federal solution.
Yılmaz said any solution must be based on “the realities of the island,” including “two states and two peoples” and sovereign equality.
“Türkiye and the TRNC will continue on their path in a spirit of cooperation,” he said. “No matter what traps are set in our region, the realities of the region will render them ineffective.”
Speaking after the meeting, the TRNC’s Üstel also addressed recent regional developments, referring to a defense protocol signed between Greece, Israel and the Greek Cypriot administration.
Üstel said the three had entered what he described as an arms race following the signing of the defense agreement and accused them of showcasing new defense acquisitions in the media.
He said the Turkish Cypriots are “not alone,” stressing that Türkiye stands by the TRNC as its motherland.
“Whatever they do, we have no doubt that when the time comes, we will respond in the same manner and with the same determination,” Üstel said.
Üstel also reiterated that there are two peoples and two states on the island and said any solution must reflect this reality.
Türkiye is the “natural center” of the fight against the global climate crisis, Environment, Urbanization and Climate Change Minister and COP31 President Murat Kurum said on Thursday, underscoring that the country’s approach to the climate conference is “clear” and is that of dialogue, consensus and action.
Speaking alongside Simon Stiell, the executive secretary of U.N. Climate Change, at a press conference in Istanbul, Kurum evaluated the aspirations for the upcoming 31st Conference of the Parties (COP31), a high-level global climate summit to be held in Türkiye’s coastal city of Antalya.
COP30 President Andre Correa do Lago was also present at the press conference.
Fully known as the 2026 United Nations Climate Change Conference, or Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), the event is set to take place from Nov. 9 to Nov. 20.
Türkiye, in partnership with Australia, secured a bid to host the summit at the last climate talks in Brazil’s Belem.
As a first-time host and current president of the event, Türkiye will also organize a two-day World Leaders’ Summit. It will also be responsible for preparing official communications for the COP31 conference, overseeing operational and logistical arrangements, and appointing the U.N. High-Level Climate Champion, among other duties.
Australia, on the other hand, is assigned to “leading the negotiations agenda.” Moreover, building on the efforts of the COP30 Brazilian Presidency, Türkiye and Australia will work together, and with Pacific island countries, to strengthen and elevate the action agenda.
Speaking on Thursday, Kurum said they aim to carry out the COP31 process with a results-oriented approach. “We truly want COP31 to be successful,” he stressed.
He started his speech by noting that COP meetings “are very critical and valuable,” as “we are experiencing the devastating effects of the climate crisis more severely by each passing day.”
High expectations
“As Türkiye and Australia, we will work as one body with an understanding based on consultation and cooperation. We are all aware that the world’s expectations from COP31 are high,” he said.
“Our responsibility is to read these expectations correctly, to build trust among the parties and to produce results.”
“There is something we always say. We do not see COP31 merely as a conference, and no one should see it that way,” he maintained.
According to Kurum, Türkiye’s approach to COP31 is “clear.”
“We will not be a single voice but will engage in dialogue, we will act not with division but with consensus, and we will prefer action, not stagnation, in order to achieve results,” he said.
Emphasizing the understanding of responsibility that draws from the common memory of civilizations and reminds humanity of its ancient relationship with nature, the minister said they are approaching the talks with the idea and understanding that “they would hear, make heard and encourage everyone’s voice.”
Moreover, he described that climate change is no longer just an environmental crisis but instead “an existential issue,” which he said is affecting every aspect of human life, from trade and transportation to industry, food, energy and education.
At the same time, he suggested they would “respect countries’ development priorities,” while also pointing to the issue of financing, which is “of great importance in terms of advancing implementation.”
“Again, our local governments, our private sector, financial institutions and non-governmental organizations must continue to be the main actors of this process,” he further said.
Similarly, he underscored the significance of the Zero Waste Movement carried out under the auspices of first lady Emine Erdoğan. The initiative “has shown the entire world that climate action does not have to remain at the level of rhetoric, but can be carried into a results-oriented transformation framework,” according to Kurum.
Rebuilding trust in multilateralism
Emphasizing that as the COP31 presidency, they are determined to rebuild trust in multilateralism with “a strong vision focused on producing results,” the minister also drew attention to the nature and standing “with humanity.”
“At a time when climate change is sweeping across the entire world, Türkiye stands with humanity,” he proclaimed.
“The world is our common home, and we have nowhere else to go, no other home, no other shelter. With this awareness, we say that Türkiye is the natural center of the struggle to be waged against the global climate crisis,” he said.
Also expressing that Türkiye will be “a bridge” bringing together the north and the south, the east and the west, developed economies and developing societies, Kurum went on to say that “Türkiye is a country that has assumed the leadership of global climate justice, has proven and earned this claim by standing on the right side of humanity at all critical moments in history.”
“The future will take shape here, in Anatolia. A road map for a livable future for all humanity will be presented from here,” he added.
“We cannot stop, because those beautiful people on the Pacific islands that face the risk of being submerged are waiting for us.”
Climate action, investment
Stiell, for his part, said that one thing “is clear,” as he suggested that COP31 in Antalya will take place in extraordinary times, the times he described as “a new world disorder.”
“This is a period of instability and insecurity. Of strong arms and trade wars. The very concept of international cooperation is under attack. These challenges are real and serious,” he said.
“But climate action can deliver stability in an unstable world.”
“In the face of the current chaos, we can, and must, drive forward a new era of international climate cooperation,” he urged, referring to previous action and decisions and suggesting that “nations can deliver change on a major scale when they stand together.”
Stiell, in particular, addressed the investments in renewable energy. He cited that in the decade since the Paris Agreement, “clean energy investment is up tenfold.”
He said that in 2025, despite all the economic uncertainty and political headwinds, the global transition kept surging forward as the clean energy investment “kept growing strongly, and was more than double that of fossil fuels.”
“Renewables overtook coal as the world’s top electricity source,” he added.
“This is an era to speed up and scale up,” he also said.
“Climate action is indisputably in every nation’s self-interest.”
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