Economy
Stocks, dollar slip, safe havens hit new peaks on US-EU trade fears
Gold and silver rose to new highs on Monday, while most equity markets fell after U.S. President Donald Trump revived trade war fears by threatening several European nations with tariffs over their opposition to Washington taking over Denmark’s autonomous territory, Greenland.
The U.S. president has fanned already-rising geopolitical tensions this month by insisting that Washington would take control of the North Atlantic island, citing national security needs.
And on Saturday, after talks failed to resolve “fundamental disagreement” over the Danish autonomous territory, he announced he would hit eight countries with fresh levies over their refusal to submit.
He said he would impose 10% tariffs on Denmark, Norway, Sweden, France, Germany, the United Kingdom, the Netherlands and Finland from Feb. 1 – rising to 25% from June 1 – if they did not agree to the takeover.
The announcement drew an immediate response, with a joint statement from the countries saying: “Tariff threats undermine transatlantic relations and risk a dangerous downward spiral.”
The move also threatened a trade deal signed between the United States and the European Union last year, with German Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul telling ARD television: “I don’t believe that this agreement is possible in the current situation.”
Aides to French President Emmanuel Macron said he would ask the EU to activate a never-before-used “anti-coercion instrument” against Washington if Trump makes good on his threat.
The measure allows for curbing imports of goods and services into the EU, a market of 27 countries with a combined population of 450 million.
Bloomberg reported that member states were discussing the possibility of retaliatory levies on 93 billion euros ($108 billion) of U.S. goods.
The prospect of a trade war between the global economic heavyweights shook markets, with safe haven assets extending gains that had come on the back of Trump’s threats against Iran last week and the U.S. ouster of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro.
Gold, a key go-to in times of turmoil, hit a peak of $4,690.59, while silver struck $94.12.
On equity markets, Tokyo, Hong Kong, Sydney, Singapore, Manila, Mumbai, and Wellington retreated, although there were gains in Shanghai, Seoul, Taipei, and Bangkok.
European and U.S. futures sank.
The dollar also retreated against its peers, with the euro, sterling and yen all higher.
“The next signpost is whether this moves from rhetoric to policy, and that is why the concrete dates matter,” wrote Charu Chanana, chief investment strategist at Saxo Markets.
“On the European side, the decision path matters as much as the headline, because there is a difference between merely mentioning the anti-coercion instrument as a signal and formally pursuing it as an action.
“Even if the immediate tariff threat gets negotiated down, the structural risk is that fragmentation keeps rising, with more politicised trade, more conditional supply chains, and higher policy risk for companies and investors.”
There was little major reaction to data showing China’s economy expanded 5% last year, in line with its target, but one of the slowest rates in decades. Growth in the final three months slowed sharply from the previous quarter.
The figures showed that exports continued to provide the main basis of growth as domestic consumption remained subdued, putting pressure on officials to provide more stimulus.
Sarah Tan, an economist at Moody’s Analytics, wrote: “China enters 2026 with confidence still fragile, the property downturn unresolved, and the external environment turning more hostile.
“The property slump is set to extend into the year, which will weigh on households and manufacturers alike. Meanwhile, the (trade) truce with the US is time-limited and set to expire before the end of 2026, putting both talks and friction on the horizon.
“As a result, China begins 2026 with as much uncertainty as it faced at the start of 2025.”
Investors in Seoul and Taipei brushed off a warning from U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick that South Korean chipmakers and Taiwanese firms not investing in the United States could be hit with 100% tariffs unless they boost output in the country.
Key figures at around 07:15 a.m. GMT
Tokyo – Nikkei 225: DOWN 0.7% at 53,583.57 (close)
Hong Kong – Hang Seng Index: DOWN 1.1% at 26,556.23
Shanghai – Composite: UP 0.3% at 4,114.00 (close)
Euro/dollar: UP at $1.1630 from $1.1604 on Friday
Pound/dollar: UP at $1.3400 from $1.3382
Dollar/yen: DOWN at 157.81 yen from 158.07 yen
Euro/pound: UP at 86.79 pence from 86.69 pence
West Texas Intermediate: DOWN 0.4% at $59.22 per barrel
Brent North Sea Crude: DOWN 0.7% at $63.66 per barrel
New York – Dow: DOWN 0.2% at 49,359.33 (close)
London – FTSE 100: FLAT at 10,235.29 (close)
Economy
Aware of expectations, Türkiye eager to make COP31 successful
Türkiye is seeking to meet high global expectations as it prepares to host COP31, with Environment, Urbanization and Climate Change Minister Murat Kurum saying Ankara is determined to steer this year’s U.N. climate summit toward concrete, results-driven outcomes through dialogue, consensus and coordinated international action.
Speaking at a press conference in Istanbul alongside Simon Stiell, the executive secretary of U.N. Climate Change, Kurum, who is set to chair COP31, described Türkiye as the “natural center” of the global fight against climate change. Andre Correa do Lago, president of COP30, also attended the briefing.
Fully known as the 2026 United Nations Climate Change Conference, or Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), the event is set to take place from Nov. 9 to Nov. 20 in Türkiye’s coastal city of Antalya.
Türkiye, in partnership with Australia, secured a bid to host the summit at the last climate talks in Brazil’s Belem.
As a first-time host and current president of the event, Türkiye will also organize a two-day World Leaders’ Summit. It will also be responsible for preparing official communications for the COP31 conference, overseeing operational and logistical arrangements, and appointing the U.N. High-Level Climate Champion, among other duties.
Australia, on the other hand, is assigned to “leading the negotiations agenda.” Moreover, building on the efforts of the COP30 Brazilian Presidency, Türkiye and Australia will work together, and with Pacific island countries, to strengthen and elevate the action agenda.
Speaking on Thursday, Kurum said they aim to carry out the COP31 process with a results-oriented approach. “We truly want COP31 to be successful,” he stressed.
He started his speech by noting that COP meetings “are very critical and valuable,” as “we are experiencing the devastating effects of the climate crisis more severely by each passing day.”
High expectations
“As Türkiye and Australia, we will work as one body with an understanding based on consultation and cooperation. We are all aware that the world’s expectations from COP31 are high,” he said.
“Our responsibility is to read these expectations correctly, to build trust among the parties and to produce results.”
“There is something we always say. We do not see COP31 merely as a conference, and no one should see it that way,” he maintained.
According to Kurum, Türkiye’s approach to COP31 is “clear.”
“We will not be a single voice but will engage in dialogue, we will act not with division but with consensus, and we will prefer action, not stagnation, in order to achieve results,” he said.
Emphasizing the understanding of responsibility that draws from the common memory of civilizations and reminds humanity of its ancient relationship with nature, the minister said they are approaching the talks with the idea and understanding that “they would hear, make heard and encourage everyone’s voice.”
Moreover, he described that climate change is no longer just an environmental crisis but instead “an existential issue,” which he said is affecting every aspect of human life, from trade and transportation to industry, food, energy and education.
At the same time, he suggested they would “respect countries’ development priorities,” while also pointing to the issue of financing, which is “of great importance in terms of advancing implementation.”
“Again, our local governments, our private sector, financial institutions and non-governmental organizations must continue to be the main actors of this process,” he further said.
Similarly, he underscored the significance of the Zero Waste Movement carried out under the auspices of first lady Emine Erdoğan. The initiative “has shown the entire world that climate action does not have to remain at the level of rhetoric, but can be carried into a results-oriented transformation framework,” according to Kurum.
Rebuilding trust in multilateralism
Emphasizing that as the COP31 presidency, they are determined to rebuild trust in multilateralism with “a strong vision focused on producing results,” the minister also drew attention to the nature and standing “with humanity.”
“At a time when climate change is sweeping across the entire world, Türkiye stands with humanity,” he proclaimed.
“The world is our common home, and we have nowhere else to go, no other home, no other shelter. With this awareness, we say that Türkiye is the natural center of the struggle to be waged against the global climate crisis,” he said.
Also expressing that Türkiye will be “a bridge” bringing together the north and the south, the east and the west, developed economies and developing societies, Kurum went on to say that “Türkiye is a country that has assumed the leadership of global climate justice, has proven and earned this claim by standing on the right side of humanity at all critical moments in history.”
“The future will take shape here, in Anatolia. A road map for a livable future for all humanity will be presented from here,” he added.
“We cannot stop, because those beautiful people on the Pacific islands that face the risk of being submerged are waiting for us.”
Climate action, investment
Stiell, for his part, said that one thing “is clear,” as he suggested that COP31 in Antalya will take place in extraordinary times, the times he described as “a new world disorder.”
“This is a period of instability and insecurity. Of strong arms and trade wars. The very concept of international cooperation is under attack. These challenges are real and serious,” he said.
“But climate action can deliver stability in an unstable world.”
“In the face of the current chaos, we can, and must, drive forward a new era of international climate cooperation,” he urged, referring to previous action and decisions and suggesting that “nations can deliver change on a major scale when they stand together.”
Stiell, in particular, addressed the investments in renewable energy. He cited that in the decade since the Paris Agreement, “clean energy investment is up tenfold.”
He said that in 2025, despite all the economic uncertainty and political headwinds, the global transition kept surging forward as the clean energy investment “kept growing strongly, and was more than double that of fossil fuels.”
“Renewables overtook coal as the world’s top electricity source,” he added.
“This is an era to speed up and scale up,” he also said.
“Climate action is indisputably in every nation’s self-interest.”
Economy
Türkiye touts sustainable current account despite wider 2025 gap
Türkiye’s current account balance registered a deficit of $7.25 billion (TL 317.11 billion) in December, lifting the annual gap to $25.2 billion, mainly driven by a foreign trade gap, official data showed on Friday.
Vice President Cevdet Yılmaz and Treasury and Finance Minister Mehmet Şimşek said the balance still maintained sustainable levels despite challenging global conditions.
The shortfall was more than double the deficit in 2024 and up from a gap of $4 billion in November, according to the Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye (CBRT).
The deficit in December marked the highest level in eight months. Surveys had estimated a gap of around $5.2 billion in December and about $24 billion in 2025 as a whole.
Yılmaz said the 2025 shortfall was consistent with the government’s Medium-Term Program (MTP) forecasts.
“Our macrofinancial stability continues to strengthen with the current account deficit remaining at sustainable levels, the decreasing country risk premium, and the increasing sovereign credit rating outlook,” he wrote on the social media platform X.
The goods deficit, which constitutes a major part of the current account balance, amounted to $69.7 billion last year, while services recorded a net surplus of $63.5 billion.
The primary and secondary income realized a net deficit of $18.5 billion and $528 million, respectively, the CBRT data showed.
On a monthly basis, the balance excluding gold and energy registered a deficit of $691 million in December.
The foreign trade posted a deficit of $7.44 billion, while services saw a surplus of $2.65 billion, with net travel income at $2.53 billion under this item.
Net outflows from direct investment amounted to $465 million, while portfolio investments posted a net inflow of $73 million. Official reserves decreased by $4.13 billion.
For the end of 2025, the government had revised down its current account deficit-to-GDP ratio expectation to 1.4%.
Şimşek said the annual deficit was expected to have amounted to 1.6% of gross domestic product in 2025. The gap had reached 5% of GDP in mid-2023, before declining to 0.8% in 2024.
Excluding gold, the balance posted an average deficit of 3% of GDP in the 2003-2023 period, Şimşek said X. He recalled a surplus of 0.2% in 2024 and said a limited deficit of around 0.3% was projected for 2025.
For 2026, Şimşek said the moderate course of energy prices, an improving outlook among main trading partners, and a supportive euro/dollar parity are expected to contribute positively to current account targets.
“We continue to implement structural steps that will make our gains in the current account balance permanent,” he said.
Yılmaz said the current account deficit is expected to maintain its “moderate” course throughout 2026 and “will continue to support the disinflation process, which we are reinforcing through structural reforms.”
Economy
Logistics giant DP World replaces chair named in Epstein documents
One of the world’s largest logistics companies, DP World, announced on Friday a new chairperson, replacing the outgoing head following mounting pressure over his alleged ties to Jeffrey Epstein.
The announcement by the government’s Dubai Media Office did not specifically name Sultan Ahmed bin Sulayem. However, it said that Essa Kazim was named DP World’s chairperson and Yuvraj Narayan was named group CEO.
Those were positions held by bin Sulayem, one of the Middle East’s most prominent business figures. He’s among the highest-profile executives to face scrutiny and be removed from senior roles following the recent release of the Epstein files.
DP World has long been a pillar of the economy of the Middle Eastern city. It’s a logistics giant that runs the Jebel Ali port in Dubai and operates terminals in other ports around the world.
The announcement comes a day after financial groups in Canada and the United Kingdom said they’ve paused future ventures with DP World after newly released emails showed a yearslong friendship between bin Sulayem and Epstein.

The emails – some referencing sexual massages and escorts – surfaced in the cache of Epstein-related documents recently released by the U.S. Department of Justice.
Epstein killed himself in jail in 2019 after he was charged with sex trafficking. The emails do not appear to implicate bin Sulayem in Epstein’s alleged crimes. DP World did not respond to request for comment.
Bin Sulayem previously had a larger role as chair of the Dubai World conglomerate, which at the time included the property developer Nakheel. That company was behind the creation of human-made islands in the shape of palm trees and a map of the world that helped cement Dubai’s status as an up-and-coming global city.
The state-run WAM news agency also reported that Dubai’s ruler, Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum, named a new head of the city-state’s Ports Customs and Free Zone Corporation. That also was a position held by bin Sulayem.
The topics in the emails between Epstein and bin Sulayem range widely, including President Donald Trump, sex and theology.

In one email from 2013, Epstein wrote to bin Sulayem that “you are one of my most trusted friends in very sense of the word, you have never let me down.”
In response, bin Sulayem said, “Thank you my friend I am off the sample a fresh 100% female Russian at my yacht.”
That same year, bin Sulayem sent Epstein an email showing a menu for a massage business which included sexual offerings. Two years later, bin Sulayem texted Epstein a link to a porn site, and, in 2017, Epstein sent bin Sulayem a link to an escort website.
Epstein e-mailed with bin Sulayem about Steve Bannon, the Trump acolyte, in 2018, saying “you will like him.” In another exchange, bin Sulayem asked Epstein about an event where it appeared Trump would be in attendance.
Economy
Türkiye sees FDI rise over 12% in 2025 despite subdued global climate
Foreign direct investment (FDI) into Türkiye increased by 12.2% year-over-year in 2025 despite a relatively stagnant global investment climate, official data showed on Friday.
The FDI inflow reached $13.1 billion (TL 572.99 billion) last year, according to data released by the Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye (CBRT), bucking the broader trend seen in many developing economies.
Among the top sources of FDI into Türkiye in 2025, the Netherlands ranked first with $2.86 billion, followed by Luxembourg with $1.16 billion and Kazakhstan with nearly $1.14 billion.
Other major investors included Germany, the United States, France, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Switzerland, the United Kingdom and Ireland.
On a sectoral basis, the data pointed to a concentration of investment in production, trade and technology-oriented activities.
Wholesale and retail trade attracted the largest share of last year’s FDI, driven mainly by investments in e-commerce platforms. The sector accounted for 32% of total inflows, or $3.05 billion.
Manufacturing followed closely with a 31% share, totaling just over $3 billion, while the information and communications sector ranked third with a 14% share, or $1.31 billion.
According to the U.N. Trade and Development (UNCTAD) Global Investment Trends Monitor, global FDI flows showed only a cautious recovery in 2025. While inflows to developed economies and financial centers increased, investment into developing countries declined by about 2%.
Against this backdrop, Türkiye stood out with double-digit growth, outperforming global peers.
Türkiye’s performance is attributed to reforms aimed at improving the investment climate, including the launch of projects under the HIT-30 program, updates to the incentive system, the implementation of climate legislation and steps to advance digitalization.
Ahmet Burak Dağlıoğlu, head of the Investment and Finance Office of the Presidency of Türkiye, said Türkiye’s performance reflected its structural advantages and reform agenda at a time when global investment decisions remained cautious.
“Investments by global technology brands and funding directed to technology startups stood out in 2025. Investments in manufacturing and logistics also strengthened Türkiye’s position in global supply chains,” Dağlıoğlu said in a statement.
He added that Türkiye’s production capacity, skilled workforce and strategic location continue to enhance its appeal as “a global connectivity hub” for international investors.
Economy
Türkiye, TRNC to finalize new economic co-op deal by late March
Türkiye and the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (TRNC) will continue to advance cooperation and finalize a new economic agreement by the end of March, Vice President Cevdet Yılmaz said on Thursday.
Yılmaz’s remarks came after meeting TRNC Prime Minister Ünal Üstel in Ankara. The vice president described the talks as productive and said work is underway on a new economic and financial cooperation framework.
“Our aim is clear. We want to carry the TRNC toward a more prosperous and stronger future,” Yılmaz said.
He stressed that ties between Türkiye and the TRNC are “not ordinary relations between two countries,” adding that Türkiye, as a guarantor state, “will continue to stand by the TRNC.”
Yılmaz said the current cooperation protocol has been implemented effectively and that both sides aim to complete negotiations on a new agreement by late March.
The Mediterranean island of Cyprus was divided in 1974 after a Greek Cypriot coup aimed at Greece’s annexation. This led to Türkiye’s military intervention as a guarantor power to protect Turkish Cypriots from persecution and violence.
The TRNC was founded in 1983. The country is fully recognized only by Türkiye, which does not recognize the Greek Cypriot administration in the south.
The island has seen an on-and-off peace process in recent years, including a failed 2017 initiative in Crans-Montana, Switzerland, under the auspices of the guarantor countries.
The Greek Cypriot administration joined the European Union in 2004, the same year that the Greek side rejected a United Nations plan to resolve the dispute in a referendum.
The Turkish side strictly adheres to a two-state solution based on sovereign equality. The Greek Cypriots are seeking a federal solution.
Yılmaz said any solution must be based on “the realities of the island,” including “two states and two peoples” and sovereign equality.
“Türkiye and the TRNC will continue on their path in a spirit of cooperation,” he said. “No matter what traps are set in our region, the realities of the region will render them ineffective.”
Speaking after the meeting, the TRNC’s Üstel also addressed recent regional developments, referring to a defense protocol signed between Greece, Israel and the Greek Cypriot administration.
Üstel said the three had entered what he described as an arms race following the signing of the defense agreement and accused them of showcasing new defense acquisitions in the media.
He said the Turkish Cypriots are “not alone,” stressing that Türkiye stands by the TRNC as its motherland.
“Whatever they do, we have no doubt that when the time comes, we will respond in the same manner and with the same determination,” Üstel said.
Üstel also reiterated that there are two peoples and two states on the island and said any solution must reflect this reality.
Economy
Türkiye stresses dialogue, action vision ahead of COP31 in Antalya
Türkiye is the “natural center” of the fight against the global climate crisis, Environment, Urbanization and Climate Change Minister and COP31 President Murat Kurum said on Thursday, underscoring that the country’s approach to the climate conference is “clear” and is that of dialogue, consensus and action.
Speaking alongside Simon Stiell, the executive secretary of U.N. Climate Change, at a press conference in Istanbul, Kurum evaluated the aspirations for the upcoming 31st Conference of the Parties (COP31), a high-level global climate summit to be held in Türkiye’s coastal city of Antalya.
COP30 President Andre Correa do Lago was also present at the press conference.
Fully known as the 2026 United Nations Climate Change Conference, or Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), the event is set to take place from Nov. 9 to Nov. 20.
Türkiye, in partnership with Australia, secured a bid to host the summit at the last climate talks in Brazil’s Belem.
As a first-time host and current president of the event, Türkiye will also organize a two-day World Leaders’ Summit. It will also be responsible for preparing official communications for the COP31 conference, overseeing operational and logistical arrangements, and appointing the U.N. High-Level Climate Champion, among other duties.
Australia, on the other hand, is assigned to “leading the negotiations agenda.” Moreover, building on the efforts of the COP30 Brazilian Presidency, Türkiye and Australia will work together, and with Pacific island countries, to strengthen and elevate the action agenda.
Speaking on Thursday, Kurum said they aim to carry out the COP31 process with a results-oriented approach. “We truly want COP31 to be successful,” he stressed.
He started his speech by noting that COP meetings “are very critical and valuable,” as “we are experiencing the devastating effects of the climate crisis more severely by each passing day.”
High expectations
“As Türkiye and Australia, we will work as one body with an understanding based on consultation and cooperation. We are all aware that the world’s expectations from COP31 are high,” he said.
“Our responsibility is to read these expectations correctly, to build trust among the parties and to produce results.”
“There is something we always say. We do not see COP31 merely as a conference, and no one should see it that way,” he maintained.
According to Kurum, Türkiye’s approach to COP31 is “clear.”
“We will not be a single voice but will engage in dialogue, we will act not with division but with consensus, and we will prefer action, not stagnation, in order to achieve results,” he said.
Emphasizing the understanding of responsibility that draws from the common memory of civilizations and reminds humanity of its ancient relationship with nature, the minister said they are approaching the talks with the idea and understanding that “they would hear, make heard and encourage everyone’s voice.”
Moreover, he described that climate change is no longer just an environmental crisis but instead “an existential issue,” which he said is affecting every aspect of human life, from trade and transportation to industry, food, energy and education.
At the same time, he suggested they would “respect countries’ development priorities,” while also pointing to the issue of financing, which is “of great importance in terms of advancing implementation.”
“Again, our local governments, our private sector, financial institutions and non-governmental organizations must continue to be the main actors of this process,” he further said.
Similarly, he underscored the significance of the Zero Waste Movement carried out under the auspices of first lady Emine Erdoğan. The initiative “has shown the entire world that climate action does not have to remain at the level of rhetoric, but can be carried into a results-oriented transformation framework,” according to Kurum.
Rebuilding trust in multilateralism
Emphasizing that as the COP31 presidency, they are determined to rebuild trust in multilateralism with “a strong vision focused on producing results,” the minister also drew attention to the nature and standing “with humanity.”
“At a time when climate change is sweeping across the entire world, Türkiye stands with humanity,” he proclaimed.
“The world is our common home, and we have nowhere else to go, no other home, no other shelter. With this awareness, we say that Türkiye is the natural center of the struggle to be waged against the global climate crisis,” he said.
Also expressing that Türkiye will be “a bridge” bringing together the north and the south, the east and the west, developed economies and developing societies, Kurum went on to say that “Türkiye is a country that has assumed the leadership of global climate justice, has proven and earned this claim by standing on the right side of humanity at all critical moments in history.”
“The future will take shape here, in Anatolia. A road map for a livable future for all humanity will be presented from here,” he added.
“We cannot stop, because those beautiful people on the Pacific islands that face the risk of being submerged are waiting for us.”
Climate action, investment
Stiell, for his part, said that one thing “is clear,” as he suggested that COP31 in Antalya will take place in extraordinary times, the times he described as “a new world disorder.”
“This is a period of instability and insecurity. Of strong arms and trade wars. The very concept of international cooperation is under attack. These challenges are real and serious,” he said.
“But climate action can deliver stability in an unstable world.”
“In the face of the current chaos, we can, and must, drive forward a new era of international climate cooperation,” he urged, referring to previous action and decisions and suggesting that “nations can deliver change on a major scale when they stand together.”
Stiell, in particular, addressed the investments in renewable energy. He cited that in the decade since the Paris Agreement, “clean energy investment is up tenfold.”
He said that in 2025, despite all the economic uncertainty and political headwinds, the global transition kept surging forward as the clean energy investment “kept growing strongly, and was more than double that of fossil fuels.”
“Renewables overtook coal as the world’s top electricity source,” he added.
“This is an era to speed up and scale up,” he also said.
“Climate action is indisputably in every nation’s self-interest.”
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