Politics
Threat of instability next door, Israel loom large for Türkiye
In recent months, tensions between the United States and Iran have escalated, and Türkiye offered mediation at one point to defuse them. Geneva was eventually chosen as the venue of negotiations. Shortly after those meetings, however, the United States and Israel launched attacks targeting Iran on Saturday.
The strikes, which killed several senior Iranian officials, including Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, heightened security concerns across Iran and the wider region. Furkan Kaya, an associate professor from Yeditepe University, warns that such a war would undermine efforts to establish stability in the region and pose significant risks for Türkiye on multiple fronts.
“Instability in Iran, a wartime environment and the continuation of the conflict pose a highly dangerous situation in terms of Türkiye’s national security interests. Our objective as Türkiye is to ensure Iran’s territorial integrity. Regardless of the disagreements we may have with Iran, and despite differences on certain issues, what matters most is the safety of the Iranian people and the preservation of Iran’s territorial integrity. This is because Iran’s territorial integrity is vital to safeguarding Türkiye’s own territorial integrity,” Kaya told Daily Sabah on Monday.
The United States and Israel carried out coordinated airstrikes across Iran early Saturday, targeting military sites, intelligence centers and government-linked facilities, in what U.S. President Donald Trump described as a “large-scale combat operation.” The strikes prompted Iran to retaliate with missile and drone attacks against Israel and U.S. military installations in the Gulf, dramatically escalating regional tensions. Trump said Washington had sought to reach an agreement and accused Iran of developing missiles capable of threatening Europe, while urging Iranians to “take control of your destiny.” Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said the operation aimed to create conditions for Iranians to “determine their own future.”
Drawing attention to nearly 2,500 suspected Daesh members who were transferred from Syria to northern Iraq under U.S. coordination and sent to an area controlled by Bafel Talabani, who is described as a key figure linked to the PKK terrorist group’s activities in Iraq, Kaya argued that the detainees could have remained in secure prisons in Syria, where they were unlikely to escape.
He further suggested such militants could potentially be mobilized in urban terror attacks, adding that any such scenario would require weakening Iran politically, eroding public trust in the state and creating broader instability within Iran.
For such a scenario to unfold, “Iran would first need to be destabilized,” Kaya asserted, “Since the attacks began, opinion pieces and public statements including remarks by evangelical and pro-Zionist groups in the U.S. as well as comments by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu have repeatedly called on Iranians to take to the streets, rise up against the state and overthrow the regime.”
Such rhetoric reflects the belief that an external imperial power can deliver liberation, a notion Kaya said has been tested before in Iraq and Libya, underlining that past experience shows no imperial power brings freedom to another nation.
Iran’s Red Crescent recently said the death toll from the U.S.-Israeli attacks had risen to 555 across 131 residential areas, according to the semi-official Fars News Agency. An earlier statement by Red Crescent spokesperson Mojtaba Khaledi on Feb. 28 had reported 201 dead and 747 wounded.
Iran’s Education Ministry also said 170 teachers and students were killed in the strikes, while state television reported that 153 students and teachers died in an attack on a girls’ elementary school in Minab, in Hormozgan province.
While pointing out the potential impacts to Türkiye and outcomes of the war, Kaya noted that as fighting between Iran, Israel and the U.S. escalated, President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan have engaged in intensive shuttle diplomacy in an effort to prevent a wider regional war. Despite those efforts, clashes have begun and their duration remains uncertain.
He also warned that the conflict could trigger migration pressures, prompting Türkiye to tighten border security measures to prevent a potential influx.
As fighting between Iran, Israel and the United States escalates, Turkish officials say President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan have engaged in intensive shuttle diplomacy in an effort to prevent a wider regional war. Despite those efforts, clashes have begun and their duration remains uncertain. Analysts warn that the conflict could trigger migration pressures, prompting Türkiye to tighten border security measures to prevent a potential influx.
“If Israel’s strikes on Iran were part of a broader strategy that could eventually place Türkiye in the crosshairs, it would not come as a surprise, suggesting that destabilizing northern Iran could, in theory, aim to reshape the balance along Türkiye’s southern border.”
With attacks increasing, Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan engaged in phone diplomacy with his counterparts in Iran, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Syria, Egypt and Indonesia, discussing steps to end the attacks.
Moreover, Kaya also drew attention to Israel’s expansionist policies, which may amount to rhetorical challenges toward Türkiye, however, he described declaring war against Türkiye on the ground would be “recklessness.”
“The importance Türkiye has placed on its national defense industry is now better understood, including why it has invested heavily in developing its own capabilities across air, land and sea through domestic resources. None of the Gulf countries, in my view, can be considered fully secure because of their dependence on the United States. However, with the strategic initiatives and advances Türkiye has undertaken over the past 20 years, I would say the country is prepared for any adverse scenario.” “Israel, in this view, seeks to encircle Türkiye from the south, and the July 15 coup attempt carried out by the Gülenist Terror Group (FETÖ) network was seen as part of that broader plan. Had the coup succeeded, a garrison-style terror state under Israeli influence would already have been established along Türkiye’s southern border. Türkiye thwarted that effort, cut off terror networks in the region and has since made significant progress in stabilizing northern Syria, Kaya also added.
Noting that Israel is unlikely to declare a direct war against Türkiye, it could seek to weaken or destabilize the country through indirect means. He concluded that the recent operations of Türkiye’s National Intelligence Organization (MIT) against Israel’s intelligence agency, Mossad, inside Türkiye are critically important for Türkiye’s national security.
Last month, Turkish authorities arrested two individuals who were previously detained on allegations of working for the Israeli spy agency Mossad. Mehmet Budak Derya and Veysel Kerimoğlu, who had been under surveillance for some time and were captured in a joint operation by the Turkish National Intelligence Organization (MIT), the Istanbul Chief Public Prosecutor’s Office and the Istanbul Police Department.
The court ruled that the suspects be arrested on charges of “obtaining information that must remain confidential for the security or political interests of the state for purposes of political or military espionage.”
President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan stressed that escalating regional conflicts underscore the urgent need for meaningful diplomacy, telling NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte that lasting peace will depend on giving dialogue real space to work.
In a statement, Türkiye’s Communications Directorate said Erdoğan stressed that Ankara is closely monitoring the growing instability across the region and believes diplomacy must be prioritized to prevent further escalation.
The discussions come as Türkiye emphasizes the need for dialogue in the face of U.S. and Israeli attacks on Iran, which have escalated regional tensions.
He also highlighted preparations for the upcoming NATO Leaders Summit in Ankara, saying Türkiye is ready to host the gathering and expects productive outcomes at a time when the alliance faces mounting security challenges.
Rutte said NATO will continue working to ensure the security of all member states through a 360-degree approach, according to the statement.
The conversation comes as multiple crises strain Euro-Atlantic security, prompting calls within the alliance for stronger coordination and a renewed focus on diplomatic solutions.
“Türkiye remains focused on peace, stability and diplomacy,” President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan said as he urged for peace to prevail in the region stuck between the U.S.-Israel attacks on Iran.
Speaking at an event in Ankara on Tuesday, the president stated: “While events are unfolding in every corner of our geography, as Türkiye, we are resolutely continuing our efforts centered on peace, tranquility and stability.” He added, “Through the peace-oriented diplomacy we are conducting intense efforts to ensure that problems are resolved at the negotiating table through dialogue and negotiations in a fair and equitable manner.”
He outlined that Ankara has mobilized all available means to help the region emerge from the crisis “without further bloodshed and without deepening hostility among brotherly nations.”
Echoing the president, Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan also on Monday warned that escalating hostilities involving Iran could spiral into a broader regional conflict, disrupt global energy supplies and destabilize financial markets, as Ankara intensifies diplomatic efforts to halt the fighting and return to negotiations.
Speaking at an iftar dinner with Ankara representatives of media organizations, Fidan said preserving stability in Iran and across the wider region is “critical,” stressing that Türkiye is working intensively to ensure calm and helping reestablish a diplomatic track.
Fidan said recent developments risk undermining both the future of the region and global stability.
Türkiye, he emphasized, is pursuing creative diplomatic initiatives and has previously helped delay the outbreak of war. “The war would have started earlier; we delayed it somewhat with our efforts,” he said, adding that the conflict resumed in the midst of negotiations, which Iranian officials have characterized as a betrayal of diplomacy.
Asked whether retaliation by Iran against targets in the region could include Türkiye, Fidan said Ankara always maintains the will and capability to defend itself, regardless of the specific context.
He described the worst-case scenario as a prolonged escalation drawing Iran and the broader region into sustained instability. The crisis, he added, must be examined through multiple lenses: military, security, political, economic and energy.
On the energy front, Fidan warned that any interruption of natural gas flows from Iran or major disruptions to imports from Gulf countries could pose significant risks to global energy security. He also pointed to the Strait of Hormuz as a potential flashpoint. Closure of the strategic waterway, he said, could cause serious turbulence in global financial and energy markets and might compel outside powers to seek a rapid resolution.
Fidan cautioned that if Iran were to directly target U.S. bases located in Arab countries, the risk of a broader regional security crisis would increase. At the same time, he said Tehran appears to be attempting to “generate costs” by striking energy-related targets in the Gulf. However, he suggested that Iran may not receive the external pressure on Washington that it expects from such actions.
“Iran can seriously harass Israel if it uses its missiles and drones effectively,” Fidan noted, adding that the duration and intensity of such exchanges remain uncertain.
Türkiye takes precautions
Fidan said Ankara is closely monitoring movements among various groups in the region and assessing how evolving dynamics might affect local ethnic balances and security calculations. He reiterated that Türkiye’s goal of a “terror-free Türkiye” is linked to achieving a “terror-free region,” encompassing developments in Syria, Iraq and Iran.
He stressed that meaningful steps toward eliminating terrorism require changes in the broader regional equation and that Türkiye continues to evaluate political developments domestically alongside external risks.
Ankara is also in contact with Oman and the United States, while Gulf states face what he called a serious situation. In parallel, Ankara is monitoring the safety of Turkish citizens in the region.
Fidan also announced that approximately 20,000 Turkish nationals, including dual citizens, are in Iran. So far, no Turkish citizen has been killed or injured. Türkiye’s three border crossings with Iran remain operational, allowing Turkish and third-country nationals to enter without major problems.
The Foreign Ministry’s consular call center, embassies and consulates are operating around the clock, he said. Around 1,500 citizens have sought information. Airspace closures have complicated travel for some Turks returning from the Gulf, though Saudi Arabia has reopened its airspace, enabling return flights via Riyadh and Jeddah.
Addressing the possibility of a migration wave from Iran, he said contingency planning has been coordinated with the Interior Ministry, disaster management authorities and intelligence services. At present, he said, Iran is not allowing its citizens to leave via the border, and no influx into Türkiye is occurring.
Proceeding diplomacy traffic
Ankara has engaged in intensive shuttle diplomacy over the past three days following joint U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran and Tehran’s subsequent retaliation, holding a series of phone calls with regional and European counterparts to push for de-escalation.
After the attacks began on Feb. 28, Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan spoke by phone with his counterparts from Iran, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Syria, Egypt and Indonesia to discuss the latest developments and possible steps to halt the fighting.
He also held separate calls the same day with the foreign ministers of the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Spain and Hungary to address the escalating violence.
Additional calls followed with Iran, Oman, Azerbaijan, Bulgaria, France and Jordan’s foreign ministers.
European leaders have been in close contact, Fidan said, noting calls from EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas, French officials, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s counterparts and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen.
On the other hand, responding to questions about the possibility of Iran targeting the island of Cyprus, Fidan said he sees limited risk at present for both the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (TRNC) and the island’s south, particularly regarding civilian facilities.
Fidan also warned that the conflict could negatively affect Gaza, where Israel has reportedly halted entry and exit. He said Ankara continues to provide humanitarian assistance and remains ready to support diplomatic platforms aimed at resolving the Palestinian issue.
The mayor of the northwestern Turkish city of Bolu from Türkiye’s main opposition, the Republican People’s Party (CHP), and his deputy were arrested Monday in an investigation into alleged extortion by coercion, while 11 other suspects were released under judicial supervision, authorities said.
The arrests came as part of a probe launched by the Bolu Chief Public Prosecutor’s Office. Provincial gendarmerie teams detained 13 suspects in an operation carried out on Feb. 28 targeting the Bolu Municipality.
Among those taken into custody were Mayor Tanju Özcan, Deputy Mayor Süleyman Can, several municipal officials and former administrators, including department heads and members of the municipal council.
After completing procedures at the gendarmerie, the suspects were transferred to the courthouse under tight security and brought into the building through a rear entrance.
Following questioning by prosecutors, Özcan and Can were referred to a criminal court with a request for arrest on charges of “extortion by coercion.” One additional suspect was also referred for arrest, while the remaining 10 were referred for release under judicial control measures. The court ordered the arrest of Özcan and Can and released the other 11 suspects under supervision.
In a statement issued Tuesday, the Interior Ministry said Özcan had been suspended from office as a temporary measure under Article 127 of the Constitution and Article 47 of the Municipal Law No. 5393 following his arrest.
Authorities said the investigation remains ongoing.
CHP-run municipalities across Türkiye are mired in corruption allegations. Most cases have been in Istanbul. The city’s mayor, Ekrem Imamoğlu, was arrested in March 2025 in a wide-ranging probe where he is accused of running a criminal network thriving on bribes and tender-rigging.
The head of the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP), Devlet Bahçeli, on Tuesday sharply criticized the United States and Israel over reported attacks on Iran, calling the actions illegitimate and warning they could destabilize both regional and global balances.
Bahçeli said during his party’s parliamentary group meeting that any U.S. attack on Iran, which he described as influenced by “Zionist provocation and planning,” would damage regional and global equilibrium.
“This aggression is illegitimate, unlawful and immoral,” Bahçeli said.
His remarks came amid heightened tensions in the Middle East and following reports of Israeli strikes that targeted senior Iranian officials and strategic infrastructure. Bahçeli questioned the state of ongoing diplomatic efforts, asking: “Weren’t negotiations continuing? Wasn’t it being claimed that talks were progressing and close to agreement?”
Bahçeli reminded that both the United States and Iran had signaled progress in the talks and that further discussions were expected to continue in Vienna.
According to Bahçeli, an Israeli attack took place on Feb. 28 while Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was meeting with senior political and bureaucratic officials to discuss developments related to the negotiations. He described the alleged killing of participants in that meeting as “an act of treachery,” claiming that intelligence infiltration had reached critical levels within Iran.
Bahçeli argued that Tehran had been subjected to intelligence operations and coercive tactics regarding the elimination of Iran’s top leadership and its military and strategic team.
He added that negotiations had been used as a pretext to set a trap for Iran.
Peace efforts in region
At the same time, Bahçeli called for peaceful solutions to regional conflicts, including tensions between Pakistan and Afghanistan. He said the only reality that should dominate global affairs is peace and urged direct diplomatic engagement to resolve both the Iran crisis and clashes between Kabul and Islamabad.
“Peace has no losers; war has no winners,” he said. “To choose war instead of reconciliation is a crime.”
Bahçeli also stressed that Iran’s political and territorial integrity must be preserved. He said the future of the Islamic Republic should be determined solely by the will of the Iranian people and warned that any external imposition or attempt to divide the country along ethnic or sectarian lines would violate international law and the U.N. Charter.
Referring to comments attributed to former Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett and U.S.-based analyst Michael Rubin that compared Türkiye’s future to Iran’s current situation, Bahçeli said Ankara could not ignore what he described as hostile rhetoric.
“Whoever comes against us must be prepared to face the consequences,” he said, adding that Türkiye would not refrain from speaking out against what it sees as wrongdoing.
Moreover, he stressed that his purpose was not to recount details of the attacks but to underline what he described as urgent lessons for Türkiye.
“We must recognize how close and ruthless the threat has become,” he said, emphasizing the importance of national unity and solidarity.
Bahçeli argued that developments affecting neighboring Iran could not be separated from Türkiye’s own security considerations.
He further pointed to recent public debate in Türkiye over the government’s “terror-free Türkiye” initiative and calls for unity between Turks and Kurds, suggesting that regional instability underscored the need for internal cohesion.
The initiative, which aims to disarm the terrorist group PKK, has largely succeeded so far. It took a new turn last week when a parliamentary committee approved a final report on proposals for new laws and regulations to facilitate the process. The initiative has been unilateral, after the PKK announced it would dissolve itself following a February 2025 call by its jailed ringleader, Abdullah Öcalan. Lawmakers are now expected to discuss amendments to existing laws or implement new ones for the integration of PKK members not involved in acts of terrorism.
Concluding his remarks, Bahçeli extended condolences to those who lost their lives, including Iran’s Supreme Leader, and expressed sympathy to the Iranian people, describing Iran as a friendly, neighboring country.
The Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus’ (TRNC) National Security Council convened Monday under President Tufan Erhürman to assess regional developments following joint U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran and Tehran’s retaliatory attacks across the Middle East.
According to a statement from the TRNC Presidency, the council evaluated the security situation triggered by large-scale U.S. and Israeli operations against Iran and discussed possible implications for the TRNC under various scenarios.
The meeting, called by Erhürman, brought together senior officials including the parliament speaker, the prime minister, the foreign and interior ministers, the commander of the security forces, the leader of the main opposition party and the head of the civil defense organization.
The U.S. and Israel launched a major offensive against Iran on Saturday, killing several senior Iranian figures, including Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
In response, Iran has carried out drone and missile strikes targeting Israel and regional locations hosting U.S. military assets, escalating tensions across the Middle East.
Following the council meeting, Erhürman contacted Turkish authorities for diplomatic coordination and held a phone call with Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan. The two discussed the latest developments in the region and exchanged views on emerging security concerns.
Foreign Ministry advisory
On Feb. 28, the TRNC Foreign Ministry issued a travel and safety advisory for its citizens in Iran and Gulf countries.
In a written statement, the ministry said the security environment in the region had entered a “sensitive and fragile phase” as a result of Israeli and U.S. strikes on Iran. It said developments were being closely monitored in coordination with Türkiye’s Foreign Ministry and through TRNC diplomatic missions in the region.
“Our citizens in Iran and Gulf countries are advised to remain in safe areas and closely follow statements and warnings issued by local authorities,” the ministry said.
The statement added that in emergencies, “citizens could contact TRNC diplomatic missions in the region or the Foreign Ministry’s 24-hour Consular Call Center at +90533 851 40 06.”
The ministry expressed hope that the current situation would not escalate into a broader conflict or lead to further humanitarian losses, urging citizens in Iran and Gulf countries to follow official instructions from the Foreign Ministry and diplomatic missions.
Türkiye’s Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan said stability in Iran and the wider region is critical, stressing that Ankara is making intensive efforts to ensure calm and help restore a climate of peace, according to the statements published on Tuesday.
Fidan made the remarks during an iftar program with Ankara representatives of media organizations, according to information shared from the meeting.
Fidan underlined the importance of preserving stability in Iran and across the region, amid heightened regional tensions, noting the fact that the latest developments are of a nature that could jeopardize both the future of the region and global stability.
He also said Türkiye is working actively through diplomatic channels to support de-escalation and contribute to the reestablishment of a peaceful environment.
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