Economy
Turkish consumer confidence ticks up in February
Consumer confidence in Türkiye improved in February, with the index rising 2.3% from the previous month to 85.7 points, official data showed Thursday.
The index stood at 83.7 in January, according to the Turkish Statistical Institute (TurkStat).
Among subindices, the sub-index measuring the financial situation of households at present rose 4.6% in February compared with the previous month, and expectations for household financial conditions over the next 12 months climbed 4.2%, data revealed.
Expectations for spending on durable goods over the next 12 months climbed 1.3% on a monthly basis.
On the other hand, expectations for the general economic situation over the next year edged down 0.1% in February.
The consumer confidence index is considered a key indicator of economic sentiment, reflecting households’ views on financial conditions, the broader economy, and spending intentions.
The index can take a value between zero and 200. It indicates an optimistic outlook when the index is above 100 and a pessimistic outlook when it is below 100.
Total home sales in Türkiye were slightly down in the first month of 2026, official data showed on Thursday, reversing the recent trend of strong demand in the property market despite higher borrowing costs in the country.
A total of 111,480 houses were sold in Türkiye in January, marking a 4.7% decrease from the same month last year, the Turkish Statistical Institute (TurkStat) data revealed. In January 2025, the country recorded 117,025 housing sales.
This comes after a record year for the property market with close to 1.7 million sales last year, more than 14% compared to a year earlier.
The renewed version of the housing report, shared once a month by the statistics office, also included commercial property sales for the first time.
The report also, instead of focusing on cumulative housing unit sales, displayed in detail sales separated into new and second-hand house sales, as well as commercial sales.
New home sales in the country dropped 2.1% year-over-year to 34,069 units in January, while second-hand sales decreased 5.9% over the same period to 77,411 units, TurkStat said.
New sales accounted for 30.6%, while second-hand house sales accounted for 69.4% of total house sales, the report said.
Mortgage-financed sales surged 15.7% from a year earlier, totaling 20,263 homes and accounting for 18.2% of all transactions.
Sales to foreign buyers, however, declined 20.8% to 1,306 units. Russians, Iranians, and Ukrainians made up the largest share of foreign purchasers.
At the same time, the data revealed that new commercial property sales decreased by 9.2% in January compared to the same month of the previous year to 3,444 units. Second-hand commercial property sales were down by 14.5% yearly to 9,823 units, TurkStat said.
The Turkish central bank cut the key interest rate by 100 basis points to 37% in January, continuing an easing cycle, albeit at a slower pace in the face of a stronger uptick in monthly prices.
The data shared by the bank earlier this week showed that the Residential Property Price Index (RPPI), which measures quality-adjusted price changes in the sector, posted a monthly increase of 3.7%.
The RPPI increased annually by 27.7% in nominal terms and decreased by 2.3% in real terms, the Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye (CBRT) said.
According to the data, the highest annual increase in January was observed in eastern provinces like Bingöl, Elazığ, and Malatya at 34.2%, while the lowest annual rise was observed in western provinces of Edirne, Kırklareli and Tekirdağ at 18.2%.
The Turkish army pension fund Oyak will focus on investments that boost operational profitability in infrastructure, energy and logistics, with the goal of nearly doubling its total asset value by 2030, its CEO said on Wednesday.
Murat Yalçıntaş was speaking at a press conference to outlined the fund’s upcoming investment plans, including new foreign capital, infrastructure spending and expansion in energy, mining and logistics.
Yalçıntaş said the company has identified infrastructure, energy, logistics, high technology and mining as priority sectors under its 2030 vision.
Accordingly, Oyak aims to strengthen its balance sheet and enhance cash generation and capital efficiency while expanding its asset value from current $35.4 billion to $60 billion by the end of the decade.
Ports, refinery investments in focus
Yalçıntaş said the fund plans significant investments in ports and refinery projects, alongside preparations for new public offerings across several group companies.
“We are planning port investments as part of our logistics strategy and are also evaluating other ports,” he said, adding that the group is working on multiple alternatives for a refinery investment both in Türkiye and abroad.
He also noted that Oyak Çimento has reached an advanced stage in overseas discussions with Taiwanese partners, while the mining division aims to expand internationally. In automotive, the group will prioritize hybrid engine and electric vehicle technologies, he added.
Foreign capital inflow from Oman
Yalçıntaş said Oyak will bring foreign investment into one of its domestic businesses and announce the deal within a week as part of a deal with Oman Investment Authority (OIA).
The cooperation has already produced two concrete outcomes, he said, including foreign investment into Hektaş’s Uzbekistan project and a new capital inflow into a domestic Oyak company expected to be announced shortly.
He added that the group is also evaluating participation in another investment fund being established in Central Asia.
IPO pipeline, export growth target
Oyak is preparing new initial public offerings (IPOs) and aims to expand its capital markets portfolio by 50% by 2030, starting with companies that have sustainable cash flow, Yalçıntaş said, adding that at least one listing is planned this year.
Operating in sectors including mining and metallurgy, cement, automotive, energy, chemicals, food, finance and construction, Oyak has more than 130 companies across 24 countries. As of June 2025, the group reported $8.6 billion in consolidated revenue, $509 million in operating profit and $1.3 billion in net profit.
Oyak companies generated $6 billion in exports in 2024, accounting for 2.3% of Türkiye’s total exports, with preliminary data indicating roughly 6% growth in 2025, mainly driven by automotive, mining-metallurgy and energy.
The group aims to raise exports to $10 billion by 2030, Yalçıntaş said, adding that while investment discussions regarding Syria are ongoing, any concrete move is more likely in 2027 rather than 2026.
Türkiye’s steel industry will shift its export strategy toward nearby and neighboring markets, prioritizing the European Union, the Balkans and Eastern Europe, as global demand weakens and protectionist measures rise, according to head of the sector’s exporters’ group.
Adnan Aslan, chair of the Steel Exporters Union (ÇIB), said on Tuesday that the industry has reshaped its growth strategy in response to tightening global conditions, aiming to focus less on distant markets and more on geographically closer destinations.
“In this environment, growth is only possible by targeting the right markets with a flexible strategy,” Aslan said at a meeting outlining the sector’s 2025 performance and 2026 outlook.
Aslan said EU countries, non-EU European markets, the Balkans, Eastern Europe and neighboring regions will be among the primary destinations in the coming period. He set a modestly higher export target of $17 billion for 2026, compared with the previous year.
The shift reflects rising logistical costs and increasing barriers such as tariffs and quotas in distant markets, while nearby regions offer advantages including faster delivery, flexible production and stronger trade ties, he added.
In 2025, Türkiye exported 7.9 million tons of steel to the EU and 3.7 million tons to other European countries, with Europe accounting for roughly 60% of total steel exports.
Recovery expected in Europe
Aslan said uncertainty surrounding the EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) had weighed on demand, causing exports to start 2026 on a weaker footing. However, he expects a rebound beginning in March and April as clarity improves and delayed purchases resume.
For 2026, the sector aims to export 20 million tons of steel worth $17 billion, up from 19.4 million tons and $16.5 billion in 2025.
Aslan added that expanding production of higher-value-added steel products forms the second pillar of the industry’s new growth strategy, helping Turkish producers avoid direct price competition with lower-cost suppliers such as China and India.
Rising imports, costs strain industry
Uğur Dalbeler, vice chair of the ÇIB, warned that rising imports remain one of the biggest risks for the Turkish steel sector.
Despite producing around 38 million tons and consuming about 39 million tons annually, Türkiye imports nearly half of its steel consumption, Dalbeler said, calling this the sector’s main structural challenge.
He noted that growing global protectionism, state-backed competition in Asia and mounting domestic cost pressures, particularly in energy and labor, have forced some producers to cut shifts and lay off workers.
Labor costs in dollar terms have tripled over the past five years, Dalbeler said, adding that employment within companies affiliated with the Metal Industrialists Association (MESS) fell by 20,000 over the past six months as of January.
On domestic demand, Dalbeler said the sector may face a subdued period as public spending, which previously supported steel consumption, has weakened and post-earthquake housing-driven demand appears to be nearing completion.
The world’s main coffee-growing regions are roasting under additional days of climate change-driven heat every year, threatening harvests and contributing to higher prices, researchers said Wednesday.
An analysis found that there were 47 extra days of harmful heat per year on average in 25 countries representing nearly all global coffee production between 2021 and 2025, according to independent research group Climate Central.
Brazil, Vietnam, Colombia, Ethiopia and Indonesia – which supply 75% of the world’s coffee – experienced on average 57 additional days of temperatures exceeding the threshold of 30 degrees Celsius (86 degrees Fahrenheit).
“Climate change is coming for our coffee. Nearly every major coffee-producing country is now experiencing more days of extreme heat that can harm coffee plants, reduce yields and affect quality,” said Kristina Dahl, Climate Central’s vice president for science.
“In time, these impacts may ripple outward from farms to consumers, right into the quality and cost of your daily brew,” Dahl said in a statement.
U.S. tariffs on imports from Brazil, which supplies a third of coffee consumed in the United States, contributed to higher prices this past year, Climate Central said.
But extreme weather in the world’s coffee-growing regions is “at least partly to blame” for the recent surge in prices, it added.
Coffee cultivation needs optimal temperatures and rainfall to thrive.
Temperatures above 30 degrees Celsius are “extremely harmful” to arabica coffee plants and “suboptimal” for the robusta variety, Climate Central said. Those two plant species produce the majority of the global coffee supply.
For its analysis, Climate Central estimated how many days each year would have stayed below the 30-degree threshold in a world without carbon pollution but instead exceeded that level in reality, revealing the number of hot days added by climate change.
The last three years have been the hottest on record, according to climate monitors.
Visitors from China and India are expected to offset a potential easing in growth from U.S. tourists to Europe this year, with international arrivals to the region projected to increase by 6.2%, a survey released Wednesday by the European Travel Commission showed.
This is the first sign of a slowdown in the post-pandemic boom in American travel to Europe, driven by a strong U.S. dollar and economic resilience in North America.
An earlier study from industry group the European Travel Commission showed that Americans were less intent on traveling to Europe in 2026 than in 2025, a trend driven by worsening economic concerns and geopolitical instability.
While Chinese arrivals to Europe are set to rise by 28% compared to 2025 and Indian arrivals to climb by 9%, traveler numbers from the Americas were seen growing by just 4.2%.
According to data from aviation intelligence platform Cirium, bookings from Europe to the U.S. between Oct. 7 and end-January fell 14.2% year-over-year, while bookings from the U.S. to Europe slid 7.3%.
Despite a tempering of interest from core American travelers, Europe is still seeing a steady rise in both long-haul travelers and in spending, showing that tourists who still want to come are more focused on high-value experiences that can keep the European travel market steady.
“Europe continues to stand out as a reliable destination, well-positioned to respond to evolving demand for more flexible travel and experience-led journeys,” said Miguel Sanz, head of the European Travel Commission, in a statement.
Travel spending in Europe is set to have risen by 9.7% in 2025, according to the survey. That is in line with reports from Europe’s major carriers, including Lufthansa and Air France-KLM, of a steady rise in bookings for their premium offerings, while economy cabin bookings for transatlantic travel have fallen.
Air France-KLM reports its full-year results for 2025 on Thursday.
As debates over debt sustainability in the global economy and the record surge in gold prices marked the start of 2026, Türkiye continues to positively differentiate itself among OECD and G-20 countries with its fiscal discipline performance and strategic increase in gold reserves.
While many advanced and emerging economies, such as Japan, China, Italy, the U.S. and France, seek a way out from under massive debt burdens, Türkiye presents a profile that refreshes confidence in global markets with both its low debt ratio and strong reserve structure.
According to the latest data from the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) and the relevant finance ministries, public debt sustainability in advanced economies is undergoing a historic test.
OECD data show that the average public debt-to-GDP ratio in advanced economies has exceeded 110%. In Europe and North America in particular, aging populations, rising social expenditures, increasing defense spending and the high interest rate environment have pushed debt burdens to unsustainable levels.
Japan tops the list with a debt ratio reaching 237%. Interest payments exceeding 31 trillion yen in the 2026 budget have placed the country’s economy in a fragile position.
In the world’s largest economy, the U.S., public debt has reached 124% of GDP, while Canada stands at 113%, France at 111.7% and Italy at 137.8%, all above critical thresholds.
Meanwhile, according to data from the World Gold Council (WGC), the U.S., which holds the world’s largest gold reserves, ranks first with 8,133.5 tons. Approximately 79% of its total reserves consist of gold.
Germany ranks second with 3,350.3 tons, while Italy (2,451.8 tons) and France (2,437 tons), maintain their positions in the top five through their traditional gold-holding policies.
In recent years, Russia, which has pursued a de-dollarization strategy, holds 2,333 tons, while China, with 2,306 tons, continues to play a decisive role in the global league.
Through strategic purchases at the central bank level, Türkiye has managed to climb the global rankings.
According to Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye (CBRT) data, with official gold reserves reaching 641.3 tons, Türkiye ranks just behind giants such as Japan and India, becoming the world’s 10th largest gold holder.
Public debt management
At the same time, unlike many OECD countries, Türkiye displays a sustainable outlook in public debt management.
According to data from the Treasury and Finance Ministry, Türkiye’s public debt stock-to-GDP ratio stands at 24.6%. This figure draws attention as it remains well below both the Maastricht Criteria threshold of 60% and the OECD average.
The decline of the country’s net debt stock-to-GDP ratio to 18.2% confirms the strength of its financial assets in covering debt obligations.
Economists describe Türkiye’s journey, which began with Law No. 4749, as “a governance success that controls not only the amount of debt but also its quality and sustainability.”
This structural shield positions Türkiye as one of the most resilient safe havens within the OECD during the global debt crisis of 2026.
The “Golden Age” between 2002 and 2012 was a period when fiscal discipline combined with banking reforms. Türkiye grew not merely by borrowing, but by becoming a fundamentally efficient economy. Thanks to this discipline, the ratio of debt stock to national income declined rapidly and the country entered a genuine real growth path.
Although the mathematical effect of inflation in lowering the debt ratio is acknowledged today, it is emphasized that the primary reason lies in the state’s structural stance.
Unlike many advanced economies, Türkiye continues to prioritize a budget-discipline model rather than a debt-dependent structure.
Gold accumulation
In gold reserves, Türkiye has risen in the global rankings through strategic purchases at the central bank level.
As of January 2026, the CBRT’s official gold reserves approached $134 billion in value, while total gross reserves surpassed the $200 billion threshold. Like this, Türkiye has become the fastest gold-accumulating OECD country over the past five years.
In his latest statements in February 2026, CBRT Governor Fatih Karahan shared striking figures regarding the so-called “under-the-mattress” gold holdings in Türkiye and their economic impact.
Karahan stated that the amount of gold estimated to be held by households in Türkiye (outside the formal financial system) is around $600 billion.
Additionally, the rise in gold prices has generated an enormous wealth effect of approximately $200 billion over the past year through these assets.
Meanwhile, according to OECD forecasts, the Turkish economy is expected to grow by 3.6% in 2025 and 3.4% in 2026. These projections place Türkiye among the top four fastest-growing economies within the OECD.
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