Economy
US inflation rises by most in nearly 4 years as Iran war boosts prices
Consumer inflation in the United States increased by the most in nearly four years in March as the war with Iran boosted oil prices and the pass-through from tariffs persisted, further diminishing chances for an interest rate cut this year.
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) jumped 0.9% last month, the Labor Department’s Bureau of Labor Statistics said on Friday, the largest increase since June 2022, when prices soared in response to the Russia-Ukraine war.
Consumer prices rose 0.3% in February. In the 12 months through March, the CPI advanced 3.3% after rising 2.4% in February.
The jump in consumer inflation followed in the wake of a sharp rebound in job growth last month, which suggested the labor market remained stable. There are, however, concerns that a prolonged conflict in the Middle East could undercut the labor market, especially if households respond to high prices by pulling back spending.
The U.S.-Israeli war with Iran has sent global crude oil prices surging more than 30%, with the national average retail gasoline price breaking above $4 a gallon for the first time in more than three years.
Though President Donald Trump on Tuesday announced a two-week cease-fire on the condition that Tehran reopen the Strait of Hormuz, the truce appeared fragile.
Last month’s increase only showed the immediate effects of the oil price shock, which has also raised the cost of diesel. March’s surge underscored the affordability challenges facing consumers. Trump won the 2024 presidential election on a promise to lower prices.
Secondary effects of oil price shock expected
Excluding the volatile food and energy components, the CPI rose 0.2% last month after climbing 0.2% in February. That translated to a year-on-year increase of 2.6% in the so-called core CPI.
The moderate rise after a 2.5% advance in February likely offers no comfort for officials at the U.S. central bank, with an acceleration expected in April as the secondary effects of the oil price shock filter through. The Federal Reserve (Fed) tracks the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index for its 2% inflation target. Those measures posted strong monthly gains in February.
Both core CPI and PCE inflation have been driven by businesses passing on some of Trump’s broad tariffs to consumers, offsetting the disinflationary trend in rents.
In the months ahead, economists expect the Middle East conflict to lift core prices through expensive jet fuel that will raise airline fares, and diesel, which will increase the cost of goods transported by road. Prices of fertilizer and plastics, among other goods, are also expected to rise.
Firming inflation has left some economists believing the Fed would not reduce borrowing costs this year, a conviction that was reinforced by the release on Wednesday of minutes of the central bank’s March 17-18 policy meeting, which showed a growing group of policymakers last month felt that rate hikes might be needed.
The Fed left its benchmark overnight interest rate in the 3.50%-3.75% range. Some economists still see a chance of a rate cut if labor market conditions deteriorate. Others argued that consumers pulling back as gasoline prices eroded their purchasing power could make it difficult for some businesses to pass on higher costs from oil prices.
A Turkish drilling ship docked at the port of Mogadishu on Friday ahead of Somalia’s first offshore oil drilling project, the two countries announced.
Energy and Natural Resources Minister Alparslan Bayraktar called it a “historic” mission that will “open a new chapter in Turkish energy history.”
A hydrocarbon development deal signed in 2024 granted Türkiye’s state-owned energy company TPAO the right to explore three offshore blocks of around 5,000 square kilometers (1,900 square miles) each.
In late 2024, another Turkish vessel carried out seismic surveys in the three blocks to identify drilling sites.
The Çağrı Bey, featuring a red bow emblazoned with a white star and crescent and topped by a drilling derrick, arrived in Somali waters Thursday and docked in the capital’s port Friday.
“It docked this (Friday) morning… the ship is very big, we have never seen anything like this at the port before,” Abshir Yare, a port employee, told Agence France-Presse (AFP).
The vessel will carry out “Somalia’s first-ever offshore drilling operations,” the African nation’s state news agency SONNA reported Thursday.
It will also conduct Türkiye’s “first overseas deep-sea drilling” operations outside its own waters, Bayraktar said on the social media platform X.
“We believe that this cooperation between Türkiye and Somalia, based on mutual trust, brotherhood and a common understanding of development, will open the door to a new and powerful era in the relations between the two countries,” he noted.
Bayraktar was due to attend a ceremony at the Mogadishu port on Friday alongside Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud.
Türkiye is one of Somalia’s main military and economic partners, with Ankara inaugurating its largest overseas base in Mogadishu in 2017.
The drilling campaign is expected to last nearly 10 months.
The Çağrı Bey will begin drilling at a well located about 372 kilometers off the Somali coast. The well has been named “Curad,” meaning the first-born child in Somali families, and is expected to become one of the world’s deepest offshore wells.
Syria is in the final stages of establishing a correspondent bank account with neighboring Türkiye’s central bank and will also discuss a potential currency swap aimed at boosting trade, according to the Syrian central bank chief.
Türkiye has been the main backer of the Syrian government of President Ahmed al-Sharaa since the ousting of longtime dictator Bashar Assad in late 2024. Al-Sharaa has been seeking to rebuild state institutions and the economy after more than a decade of war, sanctions and financial isolation.
Trade between the two countries has surged, but businesses say the lack of a cross-border payments system was one of the biggest impediments to further growth and investment. A correspondent bank account would help to facilitate cross-border payments and trade finance transactions, which traders say are currently cash only and handled by traditional money transfer offices.
In written responses to Reuters questions, Abdulkader Husrieh, Syria’s central bank governor, said he expected Syrian-Turkish cooperation to expand “into integrated payment systems, cross-border settlements, and more structured trade finance frameworks.”
“Cooperation with Türkiye, particularly between the Central Bank of Syria and Turkish authorities, is accelerating and becoming increasingly institutionalized,” said Husrieh, who was on a two-day working visit to Türkiye this week.
Lenders eye expansion
On Tuesday, Turkish Trade Minister Ömer Bolat said Türkiye and Syria were accelerating cooperation between their central banks, adding that Syria’s central bank governor would meet Turkish banking regulators.
Bolat said closer banking ties and the entry of Turkish lenders into Syria could help boost trade and industrial investment.
Turkish state lender Ziraat Bank and smaller private Aktif Bank were also expected to begin Syrian operations “in the near term,” Husrieh said.
Both banks have submitted applications and their officials said operations are expected to start soon.
Business leaders this week said restoring banking services and resolving customs and logistics issues would be key to increasing bilateral trade.
Türkiye’s exports to Syria jumped following Assad’s ouster by 60% to $3.5 billion last year, official data show, while Syria’s imports were at $235 million. The countries aim to almost triple trade volume to $10 billion over the medium term.
“This ambition will require a fully functioning financial system in Syria, supported by strong correspondent banking relationships,” Husrieh said.
Türkiye’s industrial production saw its fastest monthly growth in nine months in February, while it rebounded on an annual basis following two months of decline, official data showed on Friday.
The output rose 2.2% year-over-year in February, the Turkish Statistical Institute (TurkStat) said.
On a monthly basis, it grew 2.6%, marking the highest increase since May 2025, the data showed.
Of the 12 sub-sectors measured, seven recorded annual increases, while five saw declines.
The high-technology index surged 30.6% year-over-year in February, while the capital goods index rose 12.8% and medium-high technology production increased 6.9%.
In contrast, the durable consumer goods index fell 13.8% annually, and production of low technology declined 4.6%.
Nine of the 12 sub-sectors posted monthly gains, while three recorded declines.
Among the strongest monthly performers, medium-high technology production rose 6.5%, capital goods output increased 6.4%, and manufacturing production gained 3.3%.
Meanwhile, the electricity, gas, and steam index dropped 3.6% month-over-month, while energy production declined 3.5%.
Russia will see revenue from its biggest single oil tax double to $9 billion in April due to the energy crisis triggered by U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran, calculations showed Thursday.
The Reuters calculation provides some of the first concrete evidence of a windfall for Russia, the world’s second-largest oil exporter, from the war. Oil traders say the conflict has triggered the most serious energy crisis in recent history.
Iran effectively shut the Strait of Hormuz – a route for about a fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas flows – after U.S. and Israeli airstrikes on Iran at the end of February, sending Brent futures shooting well past $100 per barrel.
Russia’s main revenue from its vast oil and gas industry is based on production. Export duty on crude oil was nullified at the start of 2024 as part of a wider “tax maneuver,” a yearslong reform of the industry.
According to Reuters calculations based on preliminary production data and oil prices, Russia’s mineral extraction tax on oil output will increase in April to around 700 billion rubles ($9 billion) from 327 billion rubles in March. The revenue is up by about 10% from April last year.
For the whole of 2026, Russia has budgeted for 7.9 trillion rubles from the mineral extraction tax.
Russian energy in demand
The average price of Russia’s Urals crude, used for taxation, jumped to $77 per barrel in March, its highest since October 2023, according to Economy Ministry data.
That was up 73% from February’s $44.59 per barrel and above the $59 level assumed in this year’s state budget. The Kremlin said Tuesday there were a huge number of requests for Russian energy from a range of places amid a grave global energy crisis that is shaking the foundations of the oil and gas markets.
Still, there are limits on the windfall, and economists inside Russia have repeatedly cautioned that 2026 could be a tough year.
Russia ran a budget deficit of 4.58 trillion rubles, or 1.9% of gross domestic product, in the first quarter of 2026, the Finance Ministry said Wednesday. Additionally, Ukrainian attacks on Russian energy infrastructure aimed at crippling Moscow’s finances have contributed to lower earnings and threaten oil production cuts.
The size of the windfall for Russia will ultimately depend on how long the Iran crisis lasts.
The International Monetary Fund expects near-term demand for its financial support to rise to between $20 billion and $50 billion as a result of spillovers from the war in the Middle East, its chief Kristalina Georgieva said on Thursday.
Georgieva said the now-paused war was testing the global economy, with a 13% cut in the daily flow of the world’s oil and a 20% cut in liquefied natural gas triggering a supply shock that had sent energy prices soaring, while disrupting supply chains.
Speaking at the IMF’s headquarters ahead of next week’s meetings of the IMF and World Bank, Georgieva said the war had prompted the Fund to cut its global growth forecast.
“Had it not been for this shock, we would have been upgrading global growth,” Georgieva said, citing momentum from strong investments in technology and supportive financial conditions. “But now, even in our most hopeful scenario, it involves a downgrade of growth.”
U.S. President Donald Trump on Tuesday announced a two-week cease-fire with Iran, but Israel’s continued bombardment of Lebanon threatens to derail talks to forge a permanent peace.
Georgieva said the war posed significant but differentiated risks to IMF members, with net oil importers – 80% of countries – affected by rising prices and supply shortages, even as major oil exporters and non-oil economies in the region had been disproportionately hit.
“Even in a best case, there will be no neat and clean return to the status quo ante,” Georgieva said. Qatar’s Ras Laffan complex, which produces 93% of the Gulf’s LNG, for instance, had been shut since March 2 and could take three to five years to return to full capacity.
“The fact is, we don’t truly know what the future holds for transits through the Strait of Hormuz, or for that matter, for the recovery of regional air traffic,” she added, flanked by graphics showing the dramatic plunge in air and ship traffic over the last six weeks. “What we do know is that growth will be slower – even if the new peace is durable.”
The conflict, which began on Feb. 28, would have ripple effects for some time, Georgieva said, including oil refinery shutdowns and refined product shortages that were disrupting transportation, tourism and trade.
Another 45 million people would face food insecurity, bringing the total number of people in hunger to over 360 million. Supply chain disruptions would also continue, given industrial dependencies on inputs such as sulphur, helium for chip-making and naphtha for plastics.
Growth forecast downgraded
The IMF will release a range of scenarios in its World Economic Outlook next week, going from a relatively swift normalization to a scenario that saw oil and gas prices remaining much higher for much longer, Georgieva said.
Even the most hopeful scenario, she said, involved a growth downgrade due to infrastructure damage, supply disruptions, losses of confidence and other scarring effects.
In January, the IMF had forecast global growth of 3.3% in 2026 and 3.2% in 2027. It was not immediately clear how much of a downgrade the IMF would announce next week.
Georgieva told Reuters on Monday that inflation forecasts would also be increased. Next week’s meetings, which will bring together thousands of finance officials from all over the world, will focus on how to weather the shock of the war and how the IMF can help countries in need, Georgieva said.
She said the IMF was well-resourced and could scale up balance of payments support through existing programs, and additional countries were expected to request aid. She did not identify any specific countries seeking help.
The expected surge in funding requests comes on top of $140 billion in active programs before the war, an IMF official said. Including credit outstanding and lending already in the pipeline, the IMF’s total commitments amount to $245 billion.
Between May 2024 and March 2025, the IMF approved over $36 billion in new lending, according to a study by Boston University.
Georgieva warned that the energy supply shock was already driving up short-run inflation expectations, although longer-run expectations had not budged.
Financial conditions had already tightened, but in an orderly manner, and some easing was now evident.
The broader impact would depend on whether the ceasefire held and resulted in a lasting peace, and how much damage the war left in its wake, Georgieva said.
Countries should not go it alone
Georgieva said a demand adjustment was unavoidable, but cautioned countries against adopting export controls, price controls and other measures that could further upset global conditions.
“I appeal to all countries to reject go-it-alone actions,” she said. “Don’t pour gasoline on the fire.” Georgieva said there was value in watching and waiting, but central banks should “step in firmly with rate hikes” if inflation expectations threatened to break anchor and trigger an inflationary spiral. But she warned against premature moves that could throw “cold water on growth.”
She noted that many countries were putting in place conservation measures, including putting limits on private vehicle use and promoting remote work. Most countries had avoided untargeted tax cuts or energy subsidies, and the IMF was working actively with countries to ensure any measures remained temporary.
Adding deficit-funded stimulus now would increase the burden on monetary policy and amplify the rise in benchmark yield curves, further driving up the cost of debt.
Public debt was generally much higher than 20 years ago, Georgieva said, urging countries to move decisively to rebuild their financial buffers after this shock, after years of failing to do so. Even before the war, global public debt was projected to rise to about 100% of gross domestic product by 2029, its highest level since 1948.
National flag carrier Turkish Airlines (THY) on Thursday announced a new chair of the board and a new chief executive.
Ahmet Olmuştur has been named the new CEO of the company, replacing Bilal Ekşi, the statement said.
Both Bolat and Ekşi are said to retire.
Şeker has been serving as the chief financial officer since 2016, while Olmuştur has been serving as the chief commercial officer of the carrier.
Turkish Airlines also said Metin Gülşen had been appointed as the chief financial officer and Harun Baştürk as chief commercial officer.
The announcement came after separate data on Thursday showed THY’s passenger count rose 16% year-over-year in March to 7.2 million.
The January-March figure jumped 12.7% from a year ago to 21.3 million.
Its occupancy rate rose by 6.1 points to 83.6%, while the first-quarter rate marked a 2.9-point increase to 83.5%.
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