Economy
WEF chief warns of ‘most complex’ geopolitical backdrop in decades
The world is facing the “most complex” geopolitical situation seen in decades, the head of the World Economic Forum (WEF) told Agence France-Presse (AFP) Tuesday, warning that turmoil was “impacting global growth.”
“It is the most complex geopolitical and geo-economic backdrop we’ve seen in decades,” WEF President and CEO Borge Brende said ahead of a meeting of the multilateral forum in the northern Chinese city of Tianjin.
“If we are not able to revive growth again, we can unfortunately see a decade of lower growth,” he warned.
Officials, including Singaporean Prime Minister Lawrence Wong, will attend this week’s WEF meeting in the port city of Tianjin – known colloquially as the “Summer Davos.”
The meeting comes hard on the heels of the United States’ involvement in the Iran-Israel conflict and follows months in which the global economy has been battered by a tariff war launched by U.S. President Donald Trump.
Brende told AFP it was still too soon to predict the impact of Trump’s swinging tariffs.
It is “too early to say what these tariffs will end with because the negotiations are still ongoing”, he said.
“I think the jury is still out, but the traditional globalization we saw is now changed into a different system,” he said.
“That is a new chapter … especially since trade was the engine of growth.”
Brende also warned that mounting conflict could have a “very negative impact” on global growth.
Türkiye’s exports to Italy rose 7.5% in the first five months of 2025 compared to the same period last year, reaching $5.34 billion (TL 211.66 billion), according to official data, as bilateral trade between the two countries continues to steadily grow.
The rise comes amid broader efforts by Türkiye to strengthen trade ties with nearby countries, even as global economic uncertainty continues due to geopolitical tensions and protectionist policies.
Italy remains one of Türkiye’s top trade partners within the European Union, and recent diplomatic efforts have helped boost economic cooperation. In April, President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni co-chaired the 4th Türkiye-Italy Intergovernmental Summit in Rome, where the two nations signed 11 new agreements spanning defense, energy, innovation, culture and transportation.
“Türkiye and Italy are two strong allies navigating a period where global and regional developments are pushing us toward closer cooperation,” Erdoğan said following the summit. He noted that partnerships in the defense sector would continue to expand.
According to the Turkish Exporters Assembly (TIM), exports to Italy in May alone reached $1.14 billion, an 8% increase year-over-year. Italy accounted for 4.8% of Türkiye’s total exports from January through May, which totaled $110.95 billion, up 3.5% from the same period last year.
The automotive industry led Turkish exports to Italy, bringing in $1.3 billion. Other top sectors included chemicals at $777 million, ferrous and non-ferrous metals at $472.5 million, steel at $456.1 million and textiles at $327 million.
While automotive and textile exports saw slight annual declines of 5.6% and 1.8%, respectively, chemicals rose 14.6%, metals jumped 37.4% and steel grew 9.4%.
Istanbul was the top exporting province to Italy, accounting for $1.8 billion in shipments. Kocaeli followed with $727.4 million, Bursa with $514.6 million, Izmir with $327.2 million and Ankara with $208.2 million.
In an interview on Tuesday, Stefano Kaslowski, president of the Italian Chamber of Commerce and Industry in Türkiye (CCIIST), said the figures reflect the strength and potential of commercial ties between the two countries.
“This success is not a coincidence but a result of deep-rooted, long-standing relations,” Kaslowski told Anadolu Agency (AA). “We’ve been bringing the Turkish and Italian business communities together since 1885.”
Kaslowski noted that more than 1,500 Italian companies operate in Italy with commercial ties to Türkiye, and many have strong investment footprints in the country. He said Italy’s role as Türkiye’s second-largest EU trade partner highlights its strategic importance.
The bilateral trade volume reached $28 billion in 2023, and both countries are aiming to exceed $40 billion in the coming years, according to Kaslowski.
He said the growing trade figures suggest not just numerical growth, but a “structural transformation,” driven by improving Turkish quality standards, better alignment with Italian market needs, and logistics improvements.
Kaslowski emphasized that Italy’s industrial strength in sectors such as machinery, pharmaceuticals, automotive and luxury goods, coupled with its push toward green and digital transformation, creates significant opportunities for Turkish businesses.
Likewise, Türkiye’s young population, production capacity and geographic location make it an attractive destination for Italian investors, he said. He also underlined the importance of modernizing the EU-Türkiye Customs Union to facilitate further trade.
As part of its role, CCIIST provides services including business matchmaking, trade fair coordination, market research and advisory support for new ventures. The organization also arranges bilateral delegations, seminars, and networking events.
Recent CCIIST events, such as the “Risks and Opportunities in Türkiye-Italy Foreign Trade” roundtable, brought together sector experts and officials to find practical solutions to common trade challenges, such as customs optimization and cost reduction.
Kaslowski expressed optimism about the future, especially in areas like sustainability, digital transformation and green technologies.
“If the current trend continues, we expect exports to Italy to reach $12 billion-13 billion by year-end,” he said. “But our goal isn’t just to grow in numbers – we aim to develop high-value, technology-intensive and sustainable trade relationships.”
He added that deeper cooperation between businesses, support for joint R&D and investment in new-generation entrepreneurs would be key to achieving that vision.
The governor of the Turkish central bank met with the chairperson and the board of directors of the top banking body for a regular meeting on Monday, according to a written statement.
The Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye (CBRT) Governor Fatih Karahan met with the chairperson of the board of directors of the Banks Association of Türkiye (TBB), Alpaslan Çakar, and the members of the board of directors of TBB at the Istanbul Financial Center (IFC) campus of the CBRT within the scope of regular meetings held every three months, the TBB said.
The meeting discussed the latest developments in the global economy and the domestic macroeconomic outlook, the statement read.
“While the reflections of the recent geopolitical risks on the global markets were evaluated, the contribution of the work carried out in cooperation with the banking sector to the maintenance of financial stability was emphasized,” it further said.
At the end of the meeting, Karahan and Çakar expressed their satisfaction with the close cooperation between the central bank and the banking sector. It was stated that the meeting was “extremely productive and constructive in a way that would support the healthy and sustainable growth of the sector.”
Earlier during the day, Treasury and Finance Minister Mehmet Şimşek said that they are analyzing the multidimensional effects of increasing geopolitical tensions on the Turkish economy and evaluating possible scenarios in detail.
“Our institutions are ready to take the necessary measures quickly and decisively, in strong coordination, to maintain stability in the markets and the healthy functioning of our economy,” Şimşek said in a social media post.
Concerns have mounted globally about the potential closure of a key oil route by Iran, as a response to the weekend’s attack by the U.S. on its nuclear sites.
World shares slipped on Monday and oil prices rose toward five-month highs before retracing gains as investors awaited possible retaliation from Iran following U.S. attacks, with knock-on risks to global trade and inflation.
“Any sign of Iranian retaliation or threat to the Strait of Hormuz could quickly shift sentiment and force markets to reprice geopolitical risk more aggressively,” said Charu Chanana, chief investment strategist at Saxo.
The Strait of Hormuz is only about 33 kilometers (21 miles) wide at its narrowest point, and around a quarter of global oil trade and 20% of liquefied natural gas (LNG) supplies pass through it.
The eurozone economic activity flatlined for a second month in June, barely expanding as the bloc’s dominant services industry showed only a minimal sign of improvement and manufacturing displayed none at all, a top survey showed on Monday.
HCOB’s preliminary composite eurozone Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), compiled by S&P Global and seen as a good guide to growth, held steady this month at May’s 50.2.
That was barely above the 50 mark separating growth from contraction and below expectations in a Reuters poll for 50.5.
“June’s flash PMI survey for the eurozone was consistent with the economy flat-lining,” said Jack Allen-Reynolds at Capital Economics.
“The weakness in activity was broad-based, with the services index edging up to just 50.0 while the manufacturing index edged down.”
Business activity in Germany, Europe’s largest economy, returned to growth as its recovering manufacturing sector saw its strongest increase in new orders in more than three years.
But in France, activity contracted further as weakness in both manufacturing and services hit the eurozone’s second-biggest economy, S&P Global said earlier on Monday.
In the U.K., outside the currency union, business activity expanded modestly as new orders grew for the first time this year, but employers cut jobs more quickly and worried about the conflict in the Middle East.
Overall demand in the bloc fell for a 13th month, albeit only mildly, with the new business index rising to 49.7 from 49.0.
The services PMI nudged up to sit right on the break-even mark, up from May’s final reading of 49.7, as the Reuters poll had predicted.
But optimism among services firms increased and the business expectations index bounced to a four-month high of 57.9 from 56.2.
The headline manufacturing index, which has been sub-50 since mid-2022, held steady at May’s 49.4, defying expectations for a lift to 49.8. An index measuring output that feeds into the composite PMI fell to 51.0 from 51.5.
Factories reduced their selling prices for a second month. The output prices index remained at 49.2.
Eurozone inflation fell below the European Central Bank’s (ECB) 2% target in May and the central bank signalled a pause in policy easing after cutting its deposit rate for an eighth time this month.
One of the ECB’s top policymakers, Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel, said last week that the bank will keep doing all that is necessary to complete its nearly accomplished mission on inflation.
Treasury and Finance Minister Mehmet Şimşek said on Monday that they are analyzing the multidimensional effects of increasing geopolitical tensions on the Turkish economy and evaluating possible scenarios in detail.
“Our institutions are ready to take the necessary measures quickly and decisively, in strong coordination, to maintain stability in the markets and the healthy functioning of our economy,” Şimşek said in a social media post.
The minister asked the Turkish citizens not to believe in speculations made about the Turkish economy based on scenarios in case the Hormuz Strait is closed.
“With our program, we have significantly increased the resistance of our economy to shocks,” Şimşek noted.
“We are determined to fight inflation, and we will continue to take all necessary steps to ensure the continuation of disinflation,” he added.
The regional tensions in the Middle East escalated on June 13 when the U.S.-backed Israeli military conducted airstrikes on Iran, prompting Tehran to launch retaliatory attacks on Israel.
Israeli authorities said at least 25 people have been killed and hundreds injured since then in Iranian missile attacks.
Meanwhile, in Iran, at least 430 people have been killed and more than 3,500 wounded in the Israeli assault, according to the Iranian Health Ministry.
The conflict escalated further after the U.S. bombed Iran’s three nuclear facilities on Saturday.
The U.S. targeted the sites with six bunker-buster bombs dropped on the Fordo facility with B-2 stealth bombers, along with dozens of submarine-launched cruise missile strikes on the Natanz and Isfahan facilities.
The latest move by the U.S. sparked fears of Iran closing the Hormuz Strait, where 30% of the global crude oil and 20% of the liquefied natural gas (LNG) are transported.
Iran’s Parliament agreed to close the Strait of Hormuz on Sunday, waiting for a final decision from the Supreme National Security Council, Maj. Gen. Esmaeil Kowsari, a member of Parliament’s National Security Commission, said.
Asia’s fourth largest economy South Korea, like many other Asian nations is facing painful tariffs by U.S. President Donald Trump, but its shipbuilding industry could prove a useful bargaining chip.
Already hit by sector levies on steel and car exports, Seoul is laser-focused on negotiations over a 25% country-specific tariff that has been suspended until July 8.
Here’s a look at what’s going on:
Why shipbuilding?
In the 1970s, South Korea’s military leader president Park Chung-hee accelerated the country’s heavy industry, designating sectors such as steel and shipbuilding “strategically important” and rolling out state subsidies.
At the same time, POSCO was founded, now one of the world’s largest steel producers and conglomerate Hyundai built its shipyard in southeastern Ulsan, which started to grow rapidly.
European rivals struggled to keep pace.
Sweden’s Kockums Shipyard filed for bankruptcy in 1987 and in a symbolic shift of global shipbuilding power, Hyundai acquired its 140-meter (460-foot) Goliath crane for $1. It now towers over southern Ulsan.
In the 1990s and 2000s, South Korean shipbuilders such as Hyundai Heavy Industries and Samsung Heavy Industries ramped up investment in research and development, backed by generous government subsidies.
The country secured a competitive edge in high-value-added vessels, including liquified natural gas (LNG) carriers, very large crude carriers, and offshore platforms.
Now, South Korea ranks as the world’s second-largest shipbuilding nation, trailing only behind China.
Is it important?
South Korea’s exports hit a record high in 2024, with analysts pointing to shipbuilding as one of the key drivers.
The sector accounted for nearly 4% of total exports and grew by almost 20% from the previous year, reaching $25.6 billion.
Shipbuilding directly employs around 120,000 workers or roughly 1% of the country’s total workforce; with indirect employment significantly higher in industrial hubs like Ulsan.
Industry data shows so far this year that new orders have exceeded 13 trillion won ($9.4 billion).
In March, Hanwha Ocean secured a landmark $1.6 billion contract to build LNG carriers for Taiwan’s Evergreen Marine, one of the largest single orders in the sector this year.
Why is it a ‘bargaining chip’?
Trump has showed “significant interest in South Korea-U.S. shipbuilding cooperation,” said South Korea’s trade, industry and energy minister Ahn Duk-geun in April.
Like the Europeans, the U.S. shipbuilding industry has lagged behind South Korea and China, and as a result, the sector is seen as a “highly important bargaining chip in trade negotiations,” he added.
At an APEC finance ministers’ meeting in South Korea in May, U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer met Chung Ki-sun, vice chair of HD Hyundai, the country’s largest shipbuilder, before he met Seoul’s top officials.
“South Korea’s shipbuilding and defense industries see a window of opportunity,” said Kim Dae-jong, a professor at Sejong University.
How does it help the U.S.?
Greer also met with the CEO of Hanwha Ocean, the first non-American company authorized to carry out a dry-dock maintenance of a U.S. Navy vessel.
The move last September was seen as significant as it signalled that Washington sees South Korea, where it already has 28,000 U.S. troops stationed, as a strategic defense hub.
With worries growing about China’s expanding naval fleet and potential conflict in the Taiwan Strait, the U.S. has begun seeking reliable overseas shipyards to support its operations in the Asia-Pacific region.
The global market for ship maintenance, repair, and overhaul is projected to exceed $60 billion annually, according to industry estimates.
Any problems?
Despite multibillion-dollar contracts, data suggests South Korea’s shipbuilding industry is losing ground in the global race.
China dominates with South Korea’s market share dropping, according to industry data.
Demand for eco-friendly vessels is rising, and the government need to overhaul regulations “to support the development of next-generation eco-friendly vessels,” Rhee Shin-hyung, a professor at Seoul National University, told Agence France-Presse (AFP).
South Korea’s woeful demographics also make staffing hard. In Geoje, home to Samsung Heavy Industries, the number of residents in their 20s and 30s has nearly halved in recent years.
Orders are down in 2025 which hints that “the shipbuilding boom may end sooner than the market anticipated,” warned Rhee.
Global ship orders between January and April fell by almost half the volume recorded during the same period last year.
Shipbuilders have been enjoying a “supercycle” but unfortunately the “peak is expected to be lower and the boom shorter-lived compared to the past,” Nam Chul, vice president at HD Hyundai Heavy Industries, told AFP.
Türkiye’s antitrust authority announced on Friday that it had launched an investigation into Google’s AI-powered ad campaign product, Performance Max (PMAX), to assess whether it breaches the country’s competition laws.
In a statement, the Competition Authority (RK) said the probe will examine whether Google has engaged in unfair practices against advertisers and if it has hindered competition through data consolidation with PMAX.
“The subject of the investigation is the claims that Google violated article 6 of the Act no 4054 by transferring its power in online search advertising services to other online advertising services via Performance Max (PMAX) campaign, which is a type of campaign in Google Ads, by engaging in exploitative practices against advertisers who use PMAX campaign and by distorting competition in the market through combining the data coming from different channels,” the authority said.
Launched in 2021, Performance Max uses AI and automatically finds the best placements for a brand’s ads across Google services, including email, search and YouTube.
“Unlike other campaigns offered by Google, PMAX identifies the ad inventory that will maximize conversions in real-time and automatically optimizes ad delivery process thanks to its AI features,” the board said.
-
Daily Agenda2 days agoPunishment on the wife who watched his wife’s messages
-
Daily Agenda3 days agoDouble Standard from Beşikçioğlu: There is no Bread of 150 TL to Etimesgut, there is a 5 Million Lodge for Genclerbirligi!
-
Daily Agenda2 days ago‘Women are the key to the fair world’ – Breaking news
-
Politics2 days agoAnkara, Baku praise solidarity, unity in face of challenges
-
Daily Agenda2 days agoCHP president of the family -sized caliper: bribery news of the newspaper sealed …
-
Daily Agenda2 days ago
Fatih Altaylı statement from DMM: A campaign is being carried out to manipulate the public.
-
Daily Agenda2 days agoLast call for those who do not renew their driver’s license! They will be considered without driving license from 31 July
-
Politics2 days agoErdoğan, Pashinyan discuss Türkiye-Armenia peace efforts, developments
