Tehran could potentially gain billions of dollars from a 60-day reprieve from U.S. sanctions announced earlier this week, ​but unwinding more than 40 years of broad restrictions poses legal, political and commercial challenges that could take years.

At issue is whether an interim U.S. deal with Iran can translate into lasting economic relief, given the complexity of dismantling a sanctions regime ⁠that spans U.S. law, international measures and private-sector risk concerns.

The U.N., ⁠the U.S. and the European Union have imposed sanctions and trade embargoes and have frozen assets since the late 1970s over Iran’s nuclear program, human rights violations and support for armed groups around the region.

Under a 14-point memorandum of understanding signed by the U.S. and Iran last week, Washington is to ​start abolishing all types of sanctions using a schedule to be forged in a final deal within 60 days, ​a ⁠period that can be extended.

On Monday, the U.S. Treasury issued a temporary general license allowing the production, delivery and sale of crude oil and petrochemical and petroleum products of Iranian origin through Aug. 21.

Removing the remaining sanctions – if it happens – would represent a stark change in U.S. policy toward the Middle East, which has long focused on curbing Iran’s influence and using financial pressure to weaken its theocratic government.

It would also be difficult, requiring executive action for some measures, approval by Congress for others and close coordination with the U.N. and other countries that have imposed their own sanctions. Companies, wary after decades of restrictions, could also blunt the impact.

“You have this tangled nest of sanctions, and it’s not just executive orders, it’s congressional sanctions,” said Juan Zarate, deputy national security adviser for combating terrorism under former President George W. Bush.

Congress is skeptical

Washington first sanctioned Iran in 1979, after revolutionary students seized the U.S. embassy in Tehran, holding diplomats hostage.

Since then, Congress has passed half a dozen sanctions laws and presidents have issued executive orders over Iran’s nuclear program and its support for groups the U.S. deems terrorist organizations, including Hamas, Hezbollah and Yemen’s Houthis.

Since early 2025, the Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) ⁠has ⁠imposed sanctions on more than 1,000 people, vessels and aircraft, according to Treasury data.

Delisting thousands of entities designated for sanctions would take OFAC at least a year, said Jeremy Paner, a partner at law firm Hughes Hubbard & Reed and a former U.S. sanctions official.

President Donald Trump can rescind executive orders issued on Iran, but some measures – including sanctions on Hamas and Hezbollah – are mandated by law and will have to be removed or amended by Congress, where the interim deal has already sparked sharp public criticism from his fellow Republican lawmakers.

Undoing 40 years of sanctions would be difficult, added Matt Zweig, managing director of policy at FDD Action, the lobbying arm of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies.

“Any attempt to comprehensively remove layer upon layer of sanctions will be like peeling back an onion – exposing the administration – not just to legal complexities but political risks,” said Zweig, a former aide on the House Foreign Affairs Committee.

The license issued on Monday could be worth up to $3 ⁠billion for Iran over two months, by some estimates.

That could swell to “at least tens of billions of dollars” if made permanent, erasing a discount on Iranian oil, allowing Tehran to sell to additional buyers beyond China, and increasing exports, said Edward Fishman, senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations. China now buys about 90% of Iranian oil, despite the sanctions.

The new license is broader than the one ​issued in March, calling for inclusion of not just oil and petroleum products, but also banking, insurance and transportation related to the oil trade, giving Tehran quicker access to ​its revenues.

“There are a number of thorny issues involved,” said Stephanie Connor, a former OFAC official now a partner with law firm Holland & Knight, adding that lifting sanctions could mean funds flowing to groups the U.S. considers a threat.

“Are we really going to let money start flowing to Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard ⁠Corps?” she asked, referring ‌to the powerful paramilitary ‌force that the U.S. has designated a foreign terrorist organization.

Wary companies

Banks, oil firms and insurers will face evolving regulations, tougher ⁠due diligence and exposure to sanctions-evasion risks tied to Iran’s links with countries such as China, North ‌Korea and Russia.

They also remain subject to separate sanctions from Britain, the U.N., the EU and others. “We’ve kind of beaten the markets up with the risk of doing business with or through Iran, so you ​can’t just flip a switch and say, ‘Oh, now it’s okay ⁠to do business with Iran,'” Zarate said.

Companies that deal with Iran would still face lawsuits from victims of attacks, who can ⁠sue investors and companies for aiding designated groups under the 2016 Justice Against Sponsors of Terrorism Act, which aides say is unlikely to be repealed.

Given such risks, ⁠companies may steer clear of working with Iran ​to escape legal and reputational risk as long as the Iranian government remains in power, said Brett Erickson, principal with Obsidian Risk Advisors.

“We’re not going to see massive multi-billion dollar commitments until things are far more cemented and politically stable,” he said.

“There’s just a long way to go.”

Germany plans to gradually raise its retirement age beyond 67 and also abolish early retirement, as well as expand compulsory pension contributions under a set of new recommendations backed by Chancellor Friedrich Merz on Tuesday.

Germany, like many industrialized economies, is struggling with an ageing population and last year appointed an expert commission to come up with suggested reforms to its pension system.

Presenting its findings on Tuesday, the commission said the retirement age should be linked to life expectancy and gradually raised beyond 67 now.

It recommended abolishing a scheme that allows people to retire early at 63, and expanding compulsory pension contributions to include civil servants and self-employed workers.

“All elements of this reform package… must now be implemented swiftly,” Merz told a press conference, adding that “we cannot afford to remove or reject individual measures.”

Merz added that the proposals aim to meet “two goals: pensions remain secure, and the burdens are distributed fairly across all segments of society and across all generations.”

Opposition parties and unions have voiced criticism of some of the proposals, which had previously been published in German media.

The left-wing party Die Linke said that under the changes, people would be “working even longer, working even more.”

The trade union Verdi said the proposal to scrap the early retirement scheme showed “a total disregard for the lifetime achievements of the people concerned.”

The proposals must still be debated and voted on in parliament before becoming law.

In office for just over a year, Merz has struggled to deliver on his promises of sweeping reforms and a revival of Germany’s stagnant economy.

Tensions have brewed between Merz’s conservative CDU/CSU bloc, which has pushed for tougher welfare cuts, and their junior coalition partners, the centre-left Social Democrats (SPD).

However, the SPD on Tuesday also said it supported the pension recommendations, with Labor Minister Baerbel Bas declaring that she was “very confident” the reforms would be supported in parliament.

Around 19 million people in Germany were aged 65 or older, or about 23% of the total population in 2024, the latest year for which statistics are available.

In 1991, only 15% of the population was aged over 65.

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Türkiye’s new deposit return system for beverage containers, which is set to launch as of next month, is expected to contribute about TL 30 billion ($645.44 million) annually to the economy while reducing waste and greenhouse gas emissions, the head of a leading environment agency said recently.

The Deposit Return System for Beverage Packaging, known by its Turkish acronym DOA, will be launched nationwide on July 1 as part of the Zero Waste initiative.

Under the system, consumers will be able to return plastic, glass and aluminum beverage containers bearing the DOA logo through designated return points or reverse vending machines and receive a refund of TL 1 per container through a mobile application.

Speaking to Anadolu Agency (AA), Turkish Environment Agency (TÜÇA) President Nurullah Öztürk said that the project is not only a recycling application but also a strategic transformation project with environmental, technological, industrial and economic dimensions.

He said that the system is among the world’s most comprehensive digital deposit-return programs.

“From producers to consumers, from return points to recycling facilities, the entire process is tracked digitally. In this way, we are creating both a transparent and reliable structure,” Öztürk said.

According to Öztürk, 1,148 reverse vending machines have already been installed across the country, with six domestic manufacturers producing the equipment used in the system.

The agency said a pilot program that began in Sakarya has expanded to 72 provinces and has already recovered more than 38 million beverage containers, including plastic, glass and aluminum packaging.

Türkiye consumes about 25 billion single-use beverage containers annually, Öztürk said.

“We aim for the system to contribute approximately 30 billion Turkish liras annually to the Turkish economy. We are creating a strong model that combines environmental benefits and economic gains,” he said.

The agency estimates the system could reduce greenhouse gas emissions by about 37,000 tons annually, save 1.3 billion kilowatt-hours of energy and prevent the use of 3.6 million barrels of oil.

Öztürk also said that increased recycling rates are expected to reduce imports of raw materials used in beverage packaging by between 35% and 40%.

The program includes participation from hotels, restaurants and cafes, with 853 businesses currently registered in the system and 304 manual return points operating nationwide. Twenty-three operators have been authorized to manage collection, transportation and verification processes.

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Türkiye has finalized its approval process for a digital economy partnership agreement among members of the Organization of Turkic States (OTS), bringing the bloc closer to a new framework for digital trade and economic integration.

The law approving the ratification of the “Digital Economy Partnership Agreement among the Governments of the Member States of the Organization of Turkic States” was published in the country’s Official Gazette on Tuesday, the Trade Ministry said.

With the move, Türkiye became the third country after Azerbaijan and Uzbekistan to complete its internal approval process for the agreement.

The deal will enter into force after Kyrgyzstan and Kazakhstan also complete their domestic approval procedures.

The ministry said the agreement is designed to remove barriers to e-commerce, digital services and cross-border data-based economic activities among Turkic states, while establishing common rules for a more integrated and predictable digital economy framework.

It is also expected to strengthen commercial and technological integration across the Turkic world, support businesses’ access to digital markets, encourage the use of innovative technologies and increase regional competitiveness.

The agreement includes detailed provisions on preventing barriers to payments and money transfers, paperless trade, electronic transaction frameworks, logistics, electronic invoicing, express delivery services, electronic payments, national supplier databases, electronic signatures, commercial electronic messages, online consumer protection and personal data protection.

It also covers cooperation in small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), financial and technological fields, cybersecurity and competition policy.

The agreement was signed on Nov. 6, 2024, during the 11th Summit of the Organization of Turkic States in Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan, attended by President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan.

The ministry said the agreement would help Turkic states deepen cooperation based on shared values and contribute to global efforts to shape digital trade rules.

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Pakistan’s role in facilitating a peace agreement during the U.S.-Iran war has earned it broad diplomatic praise, potentially opening doors to economic advantages. However, analysts doubt whether these benefits will be enough to address the issues within Pakistan’s economy.

Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and army chief Field Marshal Asim Munir attended talks ⁠between Iran and the U.S. in the Swiss town of Buergenstock last weekend, ⁠the culmination of Pakistan’s months-long role in one of the world’s most consequential diplomatic negotiations.

“This guy. What’s up, man?” U.S. Vice President JD Vance said upon seeing Munir in the resort town before giving the army chief a hug.

Both sides, along with several world leaders, have thanked Islamabad for ​helping ease a conflict that could have disrupted the Strait of Hormuz for a long period, choked global oil ​supplies ⁠and shattered the world economy.

The breakthrough has raised Pakistan’s profile and analysts say the country of 250 million people has an opportunity to convert that goodwill into some gains for an economy marked by decades of boom and bust.

But they said any benefits were unlikely to fix deeper structural issues, including social and economic inequity, a narrow tax base and repeated International Monetary Fund (IMF) bailouts.

Pakistan is targeting economic growth of 4.0% and inflation of 8.2% for the coming fiscal year, compared with 3.7% projected growth in fiscal 2026, which ends in June, and 6.7% average inflation in the July-May period of the outgoing year.

“A nation that delivers stability at home and helps advance stability abroad becomes a more credible destination for investment,” said Khurran Schehzad, adviser to Pakistan’s finance minister.

“A growth-oriented economic agenda, coupled with a reputation as a force for peace and stability, places Pakistan in a uniquely favorable position to attract investment into its people, infrastructure, technology and future growth sectors.”

Many analysts are expecting some largesse from the U.S., although there have been no signs of any such windfalls yet.

Alex Vatanka, senior fellow and director of the Iran program at the Middle East Institute ⁠in ⁠Washington, said one gain for Pakistan was the “huge potential to be a more integrated part of the broader Middle East,” and eventually forging broader economic partnerships in the region that would also encompass defense.

Another possibility was that sanctions relief on Iran could allow “huge trade between Iran and Pakistan,” particularly through their Balochistan land border, said Miftah Ismail, a former finance minister.

Seen this before

After the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks and the U.S. invasion of Afghanistan, alignment with Washington helped secure debt rescheduling from more than a dozen bilateral creditors, renewed support from the IMF and other multilateral lenders, and U.S. assistance. But Pakistan failed to take advantage because of structural weaknesses, analysts say.

Khurram Husain, an economic commentator and journalist, said the current situation was similar to post-9/11, but with one crucial difference: that moment came at “the start of a long ruinous war in which Pakistan had to play a frontline role,” while this time “Pakistan is playing the role of a peacemaker.”

That distinction means Pakistan’s ⁠leverage this time comes from being useful to multiple sides simultaneously – Washington, Tehran, Gulf states, Türkiye and China.

Former finance minister Ismail said the diplomatic role had enhanced Pakistan’s international prestige, but that had no effect on the high costs, weak exports and external repayments that keep it dependent on the IMF.

“Our house is in such disorder that foreigners can’t really help us unless we help ourselves,” ​he said. “Nothing here in this war changes that and we will be continually dependent on the IMF.”

Asim Ijaz Khawaja, a professor at Harvard University and director of the Harvard ​Center for International Development, said Pakistan should resist short-term financial concessions that do not raise productivity.

Instead, he said, Pakistan should seek academic exchanges and scholarships, preferential market access for textiles and IT services, technology transfer and green investment frameworks.

Hamish Falconer, Britain’s minister for the Middle East, thanked Islamabad for its peacekeeping ⁠role during a visit ‌last week and told ‌Reuters the U.K. saw “huge scope for deepening trade links” with Pakistan and that a British trade minister was expected ⁠to visit in the coming months.

‘Peace pivot’

Diplomats from two other Western countries have also said their governments are ‌exploring strengthening economic ties following Islamabad’s peace efforts. They did not wish to be identified further.

Atif Mian, professor of economics, public policy and finance at Princeton University, said Pakistan should avoid treating diplomacy as another ​route to deposits, rollovers, or IMF-style relief.

The real prize, ⁠he said, was a “peace pivot” – external and domestic – built on regional trade, energy links with Iran, and deeper integration with ⁠the Gulf and Türkiye through exports, technology transfer and co-dependent industries.

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Business activity in the eurozone remained in contraction territory in June, but it picked up pace compared to a month earlier, a key survey showed Tuesday, thanks to easing price pressures linked to the Middle East war.

The eurozone purchasing managers’ index (PMI) published by S&P Global, an important gauge of the economy’s overall health, registered a reading of 49.5 this month – a three-month high – after 48.5 in May.

A reading above 50 indicates growth, while a figure below 50 signals contraction.

“The eurozone economy is showing enough resilience to just about stay out of recession,” S&P chief business economist Chris Williamson said in a note.

“The flash PMI registered only a slight drop in business activity in June, meaning the survey is indicative of unchanged GDP over the second quarter,” he said.

After a preliminary peace deal between Iran and the United States, the tourism industry hopes for a rebound with more visitors expected to return later in the year to the Middle East and the nearby region, including the island of Cyprus and Türkiye.

“There is welcome news of an easing in the recent downturn in services activity, with tourism and leisure-related industries seeing signs of recovering demand after the initial disruptions from the war in the Middle East,” he added.

That fledgling recovery was, however, accompanied by “sustained falls” in new business, the survey found.

Manufacturing activity continued to grow, recording a figure of 51.3 in June, below the 51.6 recorded last month.

The overall picture appeared better than in previous months after the war in the Middle East triggered a surge in energy costs worldwide.

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