Economy
Türkiye’s inflation cools to nearly 4-year low in July
Inflation in Türkiye dropped more than expected in July to reach the lowest level in almost four years, according to data on Monday that officials say reinforces official forecasts that price growth will slow further by year-end.
Consumer price inflation softened to 33.52% from 35.05% in June, the Turkish Statistical Institute (TurkStat) said. That was the lowest rate since November 2021, when prices had risen 21.31%. The rate was forecast to slow to 34.05%.
“Inflation is at the lowest level in 44 months,” Treasury and Finance Minister Mehmet Şimşek said, adding that the rate had dropped by 28.3 percentage points in the past 12 months.
Şimşek said that the disinflation is in line with targets and that year-end inflation will be within the central bank’s forecast range.
Month-over-month, inflation was 2.06%, driven by what Şimşek said were temporary and seasonal factors. In June, the monthly consumer price index was 1.37%.
The annual price growth in food and nonalcoholic beverages eased to 27.95% from 30.2%. Similarly, price growth in housing and utilities moderated to 62.01% from 65.54%.
Alongside housing, the yearly surge in prices was led by education, with 75.5%, and health, with 37.49%.
The lowest rates were posted in clothing and footwear with a 10.67% increase, communications at 19.62% and transport at 26.57%.
For the first time in over three years, service inflation fell below 50%, Şimşek said in a post on the social media platform X.
“The decline in inflation will enhance predictability, contributing to further improvement in domestic financial conditions and the investment climate,” he noted.
“We will continue to resolutely implement our program to achieve lasting price stability, our primary priority.”
More than a week ago, the Turkish central bank cut its key policy rate by 300 basis points and relaunched an easing cycle, while saying that leading indicators suggested a temporary rise in monthly inflation in July due to month-specific factors.
A midyear hike in fuel and tobacco prices, as well as a rise in natural gas prices, had been expected to drive monthly inflation.
Transport prices rose 2.89% month-over-month and alcoholic drinks and tobacco prices rose 5.69%, the data showed. Housing prices were up 5.78%.
Cevdet Yılmaz, the Turkish vice president, said the decline in annual inflation continues to be “significant.”
Inflation has dropped by approximately 42 percentage points since it peaked at more than 75% in May last year.
“This outlook demonstrates the effectiveness of our program and that our policies have restored balance to the economy,” Yılmaz wrote on X.
The central bank’s year-end inflation midpoint estimate currently stands at 24%, in a forecast range of 19% to 29%.
With strong coordination, structural transformation, determined implementation and continued predictability in the economy, Yılmaz said Türkiye aims to reduce inflation to the 20% range by the end of the year and permanently increase the well-being of the nation within price stability.
“We will continue to pursue balanced growth within stability, increase employment, and boost exports through investments that enhance value added and productivity,” he added.
Another report from the statistical office on Monday showed that producer price inflation eased slightly to 24.19% in July from 24.45% a month ago.
Prices of mining and quarrying climbed 28.3%, and manufacturing reported a 24.02% rise.
Producer prices of electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning grew 22.1% and surged 55.74% for water supply.
Month-over-month, producer prices moved up 1.73% after rising 2.46% in the prior month.
Tesla has unveiled its new Roadster sports car, which can thrust itself up in the air. But drivers shouldn’t expect to take it for a spin anytime soon.
Elon Musk’s car company debuted the latest bells and whistles of its second-generation Roadster, developed in collaboration with the CEO’s rocket company, SpaceX.
Chief among them, as shown off at a Thursday event, are a set of cold gas thrusters and a “multi-mode” suction system that can fling the car in the air for short spurts and spin the vehicle mid-flight.
The white two-seater vehicle drove upside down on a ramp using a suction system, turned in the air and landed using built-in thrusters. Later in the event, it used the thrusters to jump over a truck and other vehicles, twisting in the air during the maneuver.
Some watchers saw the collaboration as Musk drumming up interest in a merger of the two big companies he controls, an idea he has explored by discussing their overlap.
“Turns out the future does have flying cars,” Musk wrote on his social media platform X shortly after.
Thursday’s launch arrived after years of delays and anticipation around the new Roadster – and Tesla shares climbed 5% in premarket trading on Friday.
Still, Musk said production for consumers won’t begin until 2028.
And of course, these kinds of cars aren’t flinging themselves in the air on highways and streets just yet. There are ample regulatory hurdles for flying vehicles overall.
The fine print of the Roadster’s “rocket” feature on Tesla’s website notes: “Not approved for public road use.”
Tesla also didn’t immediately set a price tag on its latest electric vehicle, although the company nearly a decade ago quoted a base price of $200,000.
Tesla’s reservation page for the Roadster showed a “Performance” version of the vehicle requiring a $50,000 deposit and a “Thrust” version with “acceleration thrusters” requiring a $250,000 deposit. A “Rocket” variant, which Tesla says is “invite only,” is described as a single-seat model with a “full flight system.”
‘Most insane’ product demo ever
The reveal gives Tesla a showpiece car after years of missed Roadster deadlines, but it comes as the company shifts its focus to self-driving technology and robotics, and days before third-quarter results that analysts say matter more to investors.
“It was an engineering flex with no commercial value beyond embarrassing traditional car makers,” Gene Munster, managing partner at Tesla investor Deepwater Asset Management, said on X.
“The Roadster event is the latest example of why Elon can’t wait to bring (Tesla) and (SpaceX) together,” Munster said.
Musk has played down the car’s importance to Tesla’s finances, describing it in 2023 as a “small potato situation” that would not “move the needle in a major way financially.”
But the car still carries symbolic weight.
“Tesla does not currently have a halo car, or high-performance luxury vehicle designed to showcase an automaker’s best engineering and technology. The Roadster will be Tesla’s new halo car,” Morningstar analyst Seth Goldstein said in a note last month.
Viewers and witnesses gushed over the spectacle of the launch.
“That was the most insane product demo I’ve ever seen,” Tesla fan and investor Sawyer Merritt posted on X. “I just saw this in person, and I’m still asking how this wasn’t AI.”
‘Halfway to speed of sound’
The event at a SpaceX test site in McGregor, Texas, had all the elements of a classic Musk product reveal: dramatic music, smoke, mechanical hissing sounds and a launch countdown.
“This is the culmination of incredible work by Tesla and SpaceX engineers working closely together to make something that you haven’t seen in any movie,” Musk, wearing a silver Western-style belt buckle emblazoned with the Tesla logo, told a cheering crowd of enthusiasts and investors.
The Roadster can accelerate from zero to 97 kph (60 mph) in less than one second and can hit a top speed of over 370 kph, Tesla vehicle engineering chief Lars Moravy said.
“Definitely much faster than that,” an excited Musk said. “I think you’ve got to crack halfway to the speed of sound.”
The Roadster can also travel over 480 km (300 miles) on a single charge. That is less than half of what Musk promised in 2017, when Tesla first revealed a prototype of the second-generation Roadster and said that deliveries would begin in 2020.
The original Roadster, released in 2008 and on sale until 2012, was Tesla’s first-ever electric vehicle and used a Lotus Elise chassis. It helped change the world’s view of what an EV could be. The company has since been known for its Model Y and Model X SUVs and Model S and Model 3 sedans.
The reveal of the second-generation Roadster comes amid a sharp shift in Tesla’s focus to artificial intelligence-led self-driving tech and robotics, from manufacturing cars for human drivers.
This year, Tesla stopped selling Model S and X vehicles to make space for production of its Optimus humanoid robots. It also launched Cybercab – a two-seater robotaxi that comes without manual controls such as a steering wheel, pedals and mirrors.
Tesla is set to report third-quarter results on Oct. 21.
Sales of Tesla’s aging lineup of EVs have declined over the past two years, although high gas prices helped boost deliveries in the third quarter.
“The margin and cash flow numbers will carry far more weight with investors than anything they saw at the reveal,” said Josh Gilbert, lead analyst for Asia-Pacific at trading platform eToro.
The first reactor at Türkiye’s Akkuyu nuclear power plant is expected to achieve its first self-sustaining nuclear chain reaction before the end of this year, Alexei Likhachev, head of Russia’s state nuclear corporation Rosatom, said Friday.
Rosatom is building Türkiye’s first nuclear power station in the Mediterranean province of Mersin worth $20 billion. Its four reactors will have a combined installed capacity of 4,800 megawatts (MW). Once all units are operational, it is expected to supply about 10% of Türkiye’s electricity demand.
Ankara plans to construct two additional plants, one in Sinop on the Black Sea coast and one in the Thrace region.
Türkiye has said it’s still in talks with Canada, China, Russia and South Korea on the projects.
LNG cooperation with Novatek
Separately on Friday, Energy and Natural Resources Minister Alparslan Bayraktar said he discussed cooperation possibilities in the liquefied natural gas (LNG) field with the chair of Russia’s largest LNG producer, Novatek, during a meeting in Moscow.
Bayraktar said on the social media platform X that Ankara would continue taking steps to increase Türkiye’s energy diversity and consolidate its supply security.
Türkiye is one of Europe’s largest gas markets, having consumed 59 billion cubic meters last year. The country relies on imports for a majority of its gas needs and has, in the last two years, inked long-term supply deals with major LNG producers, but has no such agreement with Novatek.
Türkiye is expected to account for about 20% of demand for new passenger aircraft in Europe and the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) over the next 20 years, requiring 1,800 new aircraft as passenger traffic grows, a senior Airbus executive said Thursday.
Antonio Da Costa, Airbus vice president for market analysis and forecast, said the number of flights taken annually per person in Türkiye was expected to triple to 3.1 by 2045, surpassing the regional average of 2.4.
“We expect to see the need for Türkiye as a whole, 1,800 new aircraft to renew the fleet and especially grow at the rate that’s expected,” Da Costa said, adding that passenger traffic in the country was expected to grow by around 4.5% annually over the next 20 years, compared with 2.9% for the wider region.
“Our expectation is that the fleet of aircraft in Türkiye overall, throughout all the airlines, will more than double over the next 20 years,” Da Costa said.
According to Airbus’ latest Global Market Forecast, Europe and the CIS region will need 8,190 new passenger aircraft by 2045, including 3,600 for growth and 4,590 for fleet renewal.
Da Costa said Istanbul’s position as an international connecting hub continued to strengthen, driven by strong tourism demand and transit traffic.
Asked about the impact of the conflict in the Middle East on aviation demand, Da Costa said Türkiye had benefited from traffic diversions away from parts of the Gulf region, attracting more tourists and connecting passengers.
“We do see an opportunity… there’s more incoming tourists and more connecting passengers coming through Türkiye due to the conflict in the Gulf,” he said.
While expecting regional tensions to ease over time, Da Costa said he believed the additional traffic flowing through Türkiye would support the country’s longer-term growth.
Engine maker CFM International said Friday it had signed a memorandum of understanding (MoU) with Turkish Airlines covering the purchase of more than 300 LEAP-1B engines, including spares.
The engines will power the 100 firm and 50 optional Boeing 737 Max aircraft the national flag carrier announced in September, seeking to bolster its short- and medium-haul operations.
Alongside new engines, a long-term services agreement will cover Turkish Airlines’ entire LEAP-1B fleet, including engines already ordered and delivered, spares, engines on leased aircraft and those tied to potential options.
In total, the agreement spans more than 600 LEAP-1B engines operated by the airline and its subsidiary AJet.
New MRO facility in Türkiye
The MoU also includes a material services agreement to support an engine maintenance, repair and overhaul (MRO) facility in Türkiye.
The facility is meant to strengthen the engine maintenance capabilities of Turkish Technic, the airline’s maintenance arm, and allow it to offer comprehensive maintenance services.
Turkish Airlines currently operates 96 Boeing 737 Next Generation aircraft powered by CFM56-7B engines, and 79 Boeing 737 Max aircraft powered by LEAP-1B engines. Both figures include the AJet fleet.
“This new step with CFM will support our growing fleet, network, and operational efficiency,” said Murat Şeker, chair of the board of Turkish Airlines.
“We are also pleased to strengthen our partnership with CFM through a comprehensive set of services, providing the expertise, reliability, and long-term support needed to develop our LEAP MRO capabilities alongside a long-standing partner,” Şeker noted.
Turkish Technic CEO Mikail Akbulut said the agreement will enable the company to provide comprehensive maintenance operations for the LEAP engine.
“As Turkish Technic, we will continue to invest in engine maintenance services as well as our aircraft and component maintenance capabilities in line with our strategy,” Akbulut said.
‘New milestone’ in partnership
Olivier Andries, CEO of Safran, one of CFM’s two parent companies, described the MoU as a “new milestone” in a relationship with Turkish Airlines spanning nearly four decades.
“It reflects our shared ambition to support the airline’s continued growth and fleet expansion,” he noted. “The MoU demonstrates our broader commitment to an open MRO ecosystem, which provides airlines with flexibility and competitive services to improve operational performance and manage costs effectively.”
Lawrence Culp, Jr., chair and CEO of GE Aerospace, CFM’s other parent company, said GE was proud to partner with an airline that flies to more countries than any other.
“Putting its trust in CFM to provide highly reliable and efficient engines to support the growth of its Istanbul network and engine MRO capabilities is a responsibility we take seriously,” he said.
CFM noted that in the 10 years since the LEAP engine entered service, it has delivered more than 10,000 engines, which have accumulated over 100 million flight hours.
Türkiye’s 2027 budget will aim to support disinflation while strengthening investment, employment and exports, Vice President Cevdet Yılmaz said Friday.
The proposal, which includes spending of almost TL 27.28 trillion (about $550.8 billion), is ready to be sent to Parliament.
Yılmaz spoke at a ceremony to present the plan, which he called a “budget of resilience, prosperity and transformation,” prepared in the face of difficult regional and global conditions.
Growth and employment
The Turkish economy has kept growing even as global financial conditions tightened, external demand weakened and cost pressures rose, Yılmaz said, adding that the effects of weaker foreign demand and energy costs were limited.
Stronger growth among trading partners would create opportunities for exports and support balanced expansion, he said.
The government expects growth to rise to 4.2% in 2027 from a projected 3.3% this year, as the global outlook improves and external demand recovers. The economy grew 3.7% in 2025.
Under the Medium-Term Program (MTP), growth should accelerate gradually to 5% in 2029 through policies focused on productivity, technological transformation and innovation.
For 2027, employment is expected to rise by 657,000 people and labor force participation to reach 53.4%. Unemployment is forecast to fall to 8% from a projected 8.1% in 2026.
Inflation
The underlying trend in inflation continues to improve despite fluctuations in energy and commodity prices, Yılmaz said. Annual inflation, which fell below 30% in September, is forecast to end this year at 28.4% and decline to 21% by the end of 2027.
“Price stability is the fundamental priority of our program,” he said. The medium-term goal, he said, is lasting single-digit inflation, helped by supply-side policies, notably in social housing and food.
Deficits and debt
The government now expects this year’s budget deficit to come in at 3.1% of GDP, below the initial 3.5% projection, as revenues are running above expectations.
For 2027, Yılmaz projected the deficit at 3.5% of GDP, or $78.1 billion, which would fall to 2.8% excluding earthquake-related spending. The budget is expected to maintain a primary surplus next year.
Türkiye’s EU-defined general government debt declined to 22.3% of GDP in the second quarter from 23.1% in the first. Yılmaz described low public indebtedness as an important advantage amid global uncertainty.
Trade and external balance
The current account deficit is projected at 2.6% of GDP this year, which Yılmaz called manageable despite a temporary rise caused by the Iran war. The government expects it to fall below 2% next year.
Türkiye will continue policies to boost exports, strengthen energy supply security and reduce reliance on energy imports, Yılmaz said.
Goods exports rose 5.2% year-over-year to $211 billion in January-September, bringing the 12-month total to a record $283.7 billion.
Medium-high- and high-technology products made up 44% of exports, up from about 28% in the early 2000s.
Total goods and services exports are expected to reach $410 billion this year, said Yılmaz.
Housing and rents
Yılmaz said the budget will raise urban transformation spending by 176% to TL 276 billion and speed up social housing construction for low-income people, people with disabilities and newly married young people.
The government will also expand social housing and rental social housing to limit rent increases and meet housing needs. Support for social housing finance will rise 150% to TL 250 billion.
Earthquake reconstruction spending over 2023-2026 totaled $109 billion at current prices, equivalent to $104 billion, Yılmaz said, with 455,357 independent units completed and delivered.
Expenditures
The proposal projects expenditures of almost TL 27.28 trillion and revenues of TL 23.41 trillion, with national income expected to reach $2.24 trillion.
Interest spending is projected at $80.2 billion, personnel at $143.7 billion and current transfers at $206.7 billion.
By economic category:
Current transfers: TL 10.24 trillion Personnel: TL 7.12 trillion Interest: TL 3.97 trillion Goods and services: TL 2.18 trillion Capital spending: TL 1.85 trillion Capital transfers: TL 750 billion Lending: TL 613 billion Reserve appropriations: TL 542 billion
Selected sectors and programs:
Education: TL 2.46 trillion Health: TL 2.13 trillion Social assistance and support: TL 1.34 trillion (4.9% of the budget) Real sector support: TL 658 billion, excluding agricultural loan subsidies Electricity and natural gas support: TL 605 billion, up 62% Employer social security premium support: TL 351 billion Care support for elderly and disabled people: TL 132 billion Birth grants: TL 84 billion
Revenues
Value-added tax: TL 5.68 trillion Income tax: TL 5.53 trillion Special consumption tax: TL 3.28 trillion Non-tax revenue: TL 3.50 trillion Other taxes: TL 3.18 trillion Corporate tax: TL 2.22 trillion
President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan said Friday that Türkiye is addressing the fund turmoil in line with its priorities, warning that those who multiplied small sums through market tricks would be made to pay.
Erdoğan said Türkiye was confronting a problem that had resurfaced in a certain part of the fund market, and that the government had brought it under control through decisive steps taken since Sept. 17.
The crisis erupted after several funds last month said they could not meet investors’ redemption requests during a market sell-off, prompting a wide investigation into suspected price manipulation in a number of thinly traded stocks.
The Capital Markets Board (SPK) suspended trading in 131 funds run by seven asset management companies and placed them into liquidation, affecting nearly half a million investors. The government said it aimed to complete the liquidation of half of the funds by the end of this week.
Prosecutors have issued asset freezes and travel bans and have arrested more than 80 people, including the top executives of the asset management companies.
Erdoğan said the government had quickly set up a Fund Coordination Board to oversee the liquidation.
“We are carrying out the operation with the care of a surgeon,” he told an event in Istanbul.
Repaying investors
Erdoğan said the authorities were handling the issue according to three priorities.
The first priority, he said, is for the savings in the funds being liquidated to be paid to their owners as quickly as possible. He said payments under ordinary liquidation began last week and have continued without problems.
For extraordinary liquidations, interim payments will begin once the bill submitted to Parliament becomes law, he said.
Manipulators to be held to account
The second priority, Erdoğan said, is to deal in court with those who made unjust gains through manipulation. He said this is being carried out with the judicial process in mind, and that investigations are deepening in light of new information and confessions.
He contrasted those people with ordinary workers and business owners. “My exporter brother travels country to country to sell one more container, my industrialist brother works with great devotion despite the ring of fire around us, my merchant and tradesman brothers go to extraordinary lengths to earn honestly,” he said.
Against that background, he said, he would show no tolerance for people who multiplied TL 3 into TL 10, TL 20 or TL 30 in just three to five months through market trickery, and that they would be made to pay for their excessive gains.
Protect markets
The third priority is to manage the process without damaging the capital markets, Erdoğan said. He said the government had been careful from the first day, drawing a clear line between opportunists and investors.
He said the opposition and what he called “hired-gun” press outlets had not shown the same care.
Warning against ‘criminalizing’ markets
Erdoğan said ignoring the problem in part of the fund market would be wrong, but so would using it as cover to attack Turkish capital markets and scare investors away. “We cannot welcome the criminalization of our entire capital markets over the fund issue,” he said.
He said such an approach would hurt not only the capital markets but also the real sector, because capital markets act as a financial bridge between savers and businesses.
Erdoğan said the problem had arisen in only 4.6% of the total number of funds. Turning that into an attack on all capital market instruments, he said, “would amount to undermining the Turkish economy and sabotaging our country’s path to development.”
“No one – whether a politician or a journalist – has the right to do this. And we will not tolerate such opportunism.”
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