Economy
Trump sacks Fed board member Cook, escalating thrust on central bank
U.S. President Donald Trump said Monday that he’s firing Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook, marking an unprecedented move that would constitute a sharp escalation in his battle to exert greater control over the central bank – which has long been considered an institution independent from day-to-day politics.
Trump said in a letter posted on his Truth Social platform that he is removing Cook effective immediately because of allegations that she committed mortgage fraud. Bill Pulte, a Trump appointee to the agency that regulates mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, made the accusations last week.
Pulte alleged that Cook had claimed two primary residences – in Ann Arbor, Michigan, and Atlanta – in 2021 to get better mortgage terms. Mortgage rates are often higher on second homes or those purchased to rent.
Trump’s move is likely to touch off an extensive legal battle that will probably go to the Supreme Court and could disrupt financial markets, potentially pushing interest rates higher. Stock futures declined slightly late Monday, as did the dollar against other major currencies.
The independence of the Fed is considered critical to its ability to fight inflation because it enables it to take unpopular steps like raising interest rates. If bond investors start to lose faith that the Fed will be able to control inflation, they will demand higher rates to own bonds, pushing up borrowing costs for mortgages, car loans and business loans.
Cook was appointed to the Fed’s board by then-President Joe Biden in 2022 and is the first Black woman to serve as a governor. She was a Marshall Scholar and received degrees from Oxford University and Spelman College, and she has taught at Michigan State University and Harvard University’s Kennedy School of Government.
Her nomination was opposed by most Senate Republicans, and she was approved on a 50-50 vote with the tie broken by then-Vice President Kamala Harris.
The law allows a president to fire a Fed governor “for cause,” which typically means for some kind of wrongdoing or dereliction of duty. The president cannot fire a governor simply because of differences over interest rate policy.
Establishing a for-cause removal typically requires some type of proceeding that would allow Cook to answer the charges and present evidence, legal experts say, which hasn’t happened in this case.
‘Invalid removal’
“This is a procedurally invalid removal under the statute,” said Lev Menand, a law professor at Columbia Law School and author of “The Fed Unbound,” a book about the Fed’s actions during the COVID-19 pandemic.
Menand also said for-cause firings are typically related to misconduct while in office, rather than based on private misconduct from before an official’s appointment.
“This is not someone convicted of a crime,” Menand said. “This is not someone who is not carrying out their duties.”
Fed governors vote on the central bank’s interest rate decisions and on issues of financial regulation. While they are appointed by the president and confirmed by the Senate, they are not like cabinet secretaries, who serve at the pleasure of the president. They serve 14-year terms that are staggered in an effort to insulate the Fed from political influence.
While some presidents have pushed out Fed chairs before, no president has sought to fire a Fed governor. In recent decades, presidents of both parties have largely respected Fed independence, though Richard Nixon and Lyndon Johnson put heavy pressure on the Fed during their presidencies – mostly behind closed doors. Still, that behind-the-scenes pressure to keep interest rates low, the same goal sought by Trump, has widely been blamed for touching off rampant inflation in the late 1960s and ’70s.
President Harry Truman pushed Thomas McCabe to step down from his position as Fed chair in 1951, though that occurred behind the scenes.
Trump’s letter came days after Cook said she wouldn’t leave despite the president’s call for her to resign. “I have no intention of being bullied to step down from my position because of some questions raised in a tweet,” Cook said.
The Supreme Court signaled in a recent decision that the chair of the Fed is largely protected from removal by the president, but it’s unclear if that would apply to a governor.
Menand noted that the Court’s conservative majority has taken a very expansive view of presidential power, saying, “We’re in uncharted waters in a sense that it’s very difficult to predict that if Lisa Cook goes to court what will happen.”
Sarah Binder, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, said the president’s use of the “for cause” provision is likely an effort to mask his true intent. “It seems like a fig leaf to get what we wants, which is muscling someone on the board to lower rates,” she said.
Trump has said he would only appoint Fed officials who would support lower borrowing costs. He recently named Stephen Miran, a top White House economic adviser, to replace another governor, Adriana Kugler, who stepped down about five months before her term officially ended Aug. 1.
Trump appointed two governors in his first term, Christopher Waller and Michelle Bowman, so replacing Cook would give Trump appointees a 4-3 majority on the Fed’s board.
“The American people must have full confidence in the honesty of the members entrusted with setting policy and overseeing the Federal Reserve,” Trump wrote in a letter addressed to Cook, a copy of which he posted online. “In light of your deceitful and potentially criminal conduct in a financial matter, they cannot and I do not have such confidence in your integrity.”
Trump argued that firing Cook was constitutional. “I have determined that faithfully enacting the law requires your immediate removal from office,” the president wrote.
Among the unresolved legal questions is if Cook could be allowed to remain in her seat while the case plays out. She may have to fight the legal battle herself, as the injured party, rather than the Fed.
In the meantime, Trump’s announcement drew swift rebuke from advocates and former Fed officials.
Sen. Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass., called Trump’s attempt to fire Cook illegal, “the latest example of a desperate President searching for a scapegoat to cover for his own failure to lower costs for Americans. It’s an authoritarian power grab that blatantly violates the Federal Reserve Act, and must be overturned in court.”
Trump has repeatedly attacked the Fed’s chair, Jerome Powell, for not cutting its short-term interest rate, and even threatened to fire him.
Forcing Cook off the Fed’s governing board would provide Trump an opportunity to appoint a loyalist. Trump has said he would only appoint officials who would support cutting rates.
Powell signaled last week that the Fed may cut rates soon, even as inflation risks remain moderate. Meanwhile, Trump will be able to replace Powell in May 2026, when Powell’s term expires.
However, 12 members of the Fed’s interest-rate setting committee have a vote on whether to raise or lower interest rates, so even replacing the chair might not guarantee that Fed policy will shift the way Trump wants.
German companies’ investments in the U.S. have dropped to a three-year low in the first half of 2026, as Trump administration policies continue to raise uncertainty and pose risk for trade between the key trans-Atlantic partners, data shows.
First-half direct investments plunged by nearly two-thirds year-over-year to 4.3 billion euros ($5 billion), the lowest level since 2023, according to calculations by the German Economic Institute (IW), seen by Reuters.
Compared with the same period in 2024, that represents a drop of nearly 80%, said the report, which is based on data from Germany’s central bank.
“This continues the downward trend that has been evident since the start of Donald Trump’s second term in January 2025,” IW researcher Samina Sultan told Reuters.
Since returning to office, Trump has threatened most of the United States’ international trading partners with import tariffs in an attempt to secure concessions favourable to Washington.
In a bid to avoid heavy duties on its exports to the U.S., for example, the European Union agreed a deal last year that included a $600 billion investment pledge.
In the five years before the COVID-19 pandemic, first-half investments by German companies in the U.S. averaged 15.8 billion euros, the data showed, almost four times the 2026 level.
That said, the 2020 to 2023 period was shaped by the “exceptional circumstance” of the pandemic, Sultan said, with some years marked by net investment outflows.
The researchers also examined the composition of investment flows over 2025 and found that both direct-investment loans and reinvested earnings were exceptionally high, while equity capital in the narrower sense – the balance of new investments and liquidations – remained below average.
“Companies that are already active in the United States are therefore continuing to reinvest the profits they earn there in the country,” Sultan said.
“This suggests that the U.S. remains an attractive market overall.”
However, companies were hesitant to commit new capital, she said.
For more than a century, cafes in the Italian northern city of Padua have grown accustomed in welcoming customers for an early evening drink, or aperitivo, encouraging them to sit outside and socialize just at the time before dinner.
As Europe bakes under its fifth heat wave of the year, the traditional 6 p.m. to 7 p.m. slot has all but disappeared as people seek air-conditioning indoors, cutting sales for many hospitality businesses.
Adding to the pressure, extreme heat often falls outside traditional business interruption insurance, exposing a growing protection gap for companies across Europe.
Moody’s has published estimates that last summer’s European heat waves cost 43 billion euros ($50 billion) in lost economic output while generating only about 500 million euros of insured payouts.
In Padua, aperitivo often now starts later, “which means that the outdoor seating areas, the terraces, the spaces outside … are left unused and empty,” said Federica Luni, president of hospitality association APPE Padova.
According to a survey of about 600 hospitality businesses in the city and its province, more than 80% reported turnover declines of around 20% during the recent heatwave.
“A 20% decline wipes out your margin,” Luni said.
Toll on economy
Heat waves are increasingly taking a toll on Europe’s economy, reducing productivity, curbing consumer spending and raising operating costs.
For insurers, such losses can be difficult to cover because they often stem from indirect operational disruption rather than property damage.
“Heat in itself is not a traditionally insured risk,” said Swenja Surminski, managing director for climate and sustainability at Marsh.
“Extreme heat rarely causes catastrophic physical damage the way a flood or a storm does, but the financial operational disruption that it triggers can be just as severe.”
A 2023 survey of 9,000 small and medium-sized firms for Europe’s insurance regulator found 28% held business interruption cover as part of their property insurance, while 17% had non-damage business interruption protection covering events such as strike action.
The protection gap is widening as the economic costs of extreme heat mount. Trains are delayed, agricultural yields fall and factory cooling costs rise, while workers often struggle to maintain productivity during prolonged spells of extreme temperatures.
Companies that flagged a hit from hot weather or warned about its potential future impact when reporting second-quarter earnings included Swedish shop-fitting provider ITAB Group, Italian cement producer Buzzi and French payments firm Worldline.
Compound risk
Heat often acts as a compound risk, interacting with drought, wildfire and water shortages rather than triggering a single identifiable loss event. That makes it harder to model and insure than some other natural catastrophes.
The challenge is particularly acute in Europe, the fastest-warming continent. Reuters Climate Monitor showed the average temperature across Western Europe was nearly 10 degrees Celsius (18 degrees Fahrenheit) above the 1961 to 1990 average on Aug. 11.
Data compiled by environmental disclosure platform CDP showed 35% of companies it tracks identified heatwaves as a risk driver, led by businesses in manufacturing, services, infrastructure and food-related sectors.
While insurance may cover some physical losses linked to events such as power outages, businesses often say compensation does little to offset lost sales and reduced customer activity.
“The real loss is the revenue you don’t make and the business activity that never takes place because of the outage,” Luni said.
To bridge the gap, insurers are increasingly exploring parametric products that pay out automatically when temperatures exceed predefined thresholds. Unlike traditional indemnity-based insurance, such policies do not require a lengthy loss-adjustment process.
The European market for parametric insurance is expected to reach $7.93 billion by 2031, according to a report by KBV Research, with compound annual growth of 9.5% between 2025 and 2032.
Such policies are already being used in agriculture, where heat can reduce crop yields or livestock productivity, and industry experts see scope for expansion into sectors including transport and workforce protection.
“Parametric insurance can really play a role,” said Aidan Kerr, head of U.K. and Ireland public sector solutions at Swiss Re.
Even so, many companies will need to focus primarily on adapting their operations to withstand more frequent periods of extreme heat through measures such as investing in cooling technologies, redesigning workplaces and stress-testing supply chains, Marsh’s Surminski said.
“Take action to avoid the losses rather than address them once they’ve occurred.”
Over nearly a quarter-century, Türkiye’s defense sector has transformed from foreign-dependent licensed manufacturing into a high-capacity industry driven by high domestic content and robust global exports.
The transformation coincides with the 25-year period of the ruling Justice and Development Party (AK Party), which marked its anniversary on Friday.
Türkiye now develops a broad range of indigenous platforms and systems, invests in critical technologies and exports high-value-added products across the globe.
In 2002, Türkiye had only 56 defense firms and some 62 projects underway. Those figures today stand at more than 4,500 and 1,400, respectively.
The total project volume skyrocketed from $5.5 billion in 2002 to over $100 billion today.
Defense and aerospace exports surged from just $248 million to $10.05 billion in 2025.
Shipments hit $5.79 billion in the first seven months of 2026 and totaled $11.2 billion on an annualized basis as of July.
Türkiye is currently the world’s 11th-largest defense exporter and is close to breaking into the ranks of the top 10.
For much of the past two decades, Ankara has expressed frustration over its Western allies’ failure to provide adequate defense systems against missile threats despite Türkiye being a major NATO member.
That prompted it to invest billions of dollars to transform from a nation heavily reliant on equipment from abroad to one that is a major exporter and where homegrown systems now meet almost all of its defense industry needs.
Its research and development spending increased from $49 million in 2002 to over $3.5 billion, while the domestically produced content ratio increased from 20% to more than 85%.
Shift to domestic development
The Turkish defense sector provides direct employment to over 100,000 people, and the average age of a defense industry worker is 34.
Turkish defense was dominated by off-the-shelf purchases, licensed production and technology transfer in the early 2000s. This trend gradually shifted to promote domestic development, homegrown original design and the localization of critical subsystems.
The sector’s scope of operations expanded as project scales grew, with a broad range of products and technologies emerging, such as armored vehicles, conventional platforms, unmanned systems, warships, jet aircraft, air defense systems, radar and electronic warfare systems, smart munitions, engines, space technology and advanced electronics.
The Turkish defense and aerospace industry made around $1.1 billion in revenue in 2002, while this figure exceeded $20 billion by 2026.
Unmanned aerial vehicles
Unmanned aerial vehicles have been one of the most significant areas of transformation over the past 25 years.
Defense firm Baykar’s Bayraktar TB2 unmanned combat aerial vehicle became one of the most symbolic breakthroughs in Turkish defense.
The combat drones earned worldwide fame after proving their capabilities in several conflicts, including Syria, Libya, Karabakh and Ukraine.
Their success eventually helped Türkiye become one of the world’s top drone exporters.
Baykar’s multirole Bayraktar Akıncı platform further improved Türkiye’s drone capabilities with its high payload capacity, long range, advanced sensors and heavy munitions integration.
Baykar’s Bayraktar Kızılelma carried Türkiye’s drone expertise into the unmanned fighter jet area by combining high speed, air-to-air and air-to-ground capabilities and the ability to operate from short-runway ships.
Turkish Aerospace Industries’ Anka and Aksungur unmanned combat aerial vehicles contributed to the development of high-altitude, long-endurance and strategic reconnaissance and surveillance capabilities of Turkish drones by integrating satellite communications, homegrown electro-optical systems, munitions and engines.
Growing aviation industry
The Turkish Aerospace Industries’ under-development twin-engine stealth fighter Kaan and the Hürjet jet trainer also marked major milestones in Türkiye’s manned aviation.
The Kaan is one of the most technologically ambitious programs in Turkish aviation with its low observability, advanced avionics, mission computer, radar and system integration.
The Hürjet was developed to provide a homegrown trainer platform to advance the country’s capability to develop manned military aircraft.
The Turkish Aerospace Industries T129 Atak helicopter’s product and system integration experience translated into the homegrown T625 Gökbey helicopter, marking a giant leap in rotary-wing technologies.
State-of-the-art naval defense
Beyond aerial systems, Türkiye’s national ship project, called MILGEM, laid the foundation for domestic naval platform design, ranging from corvettes to frigates.
Advancements in combat management systems, sensors and weapon integration became key to ensuring independence and export capacity in naval defense.
The TF-2000 anti-air warfare guided-missile destroyer extended the Turkish Navy’s air defense capabilities to the high seas through its long-range air defense and advanced radar and weapon-sensor integration.
The unique naval engineering capabilities Türkiye gained through the MILGEM project enabled the development of the country’s domestic submarine project, called MILDEN, to develop underwater platforms.
The partnership between the TCG Anadolu drone carrier assault ship and the Bayraktar TB3 combat drone introduced a new sea-air operations concept to the Turkish defense industry, integrating amphibious capabilities with a UAV capable of operating from short runways.
Missile defense systems
Meanwhile, Türkiye’s air defense architecture also grew with Roketsan and Aselsan’s Hisar and Siper missile systems, which contributed to a layered air defense architecture combining integrated sensors, command-and-control systems and missile systems within a single domestic architecture against various threats at low, medium and high altitudes.
Türkiye’s multilayered air defense system, Steel Dome, has been developed by bringing together radars, electro-optical sensors, electronic warfare components, command-and-control infrastructure and air defense weapons of various ranges under a common network.
Roketsan’s Som, Atmaca and Kara Atmaca developed long-range precision strike capabilities for air, sea and land platforms, while the same firm’s Tayfun missile introduced the ability to engage long-range and precision land targets, boosting Türkiye’s strategic deterrence.
Turkish defense also evolved in surface vehicles, with the main battle tank Altay establishing a broad industrial ecosystem around critical technologies, such as armor, active protection, fire control and power packs, while also highlighting the strategic importance of reducing foreign dependence on engines and power packs.
Aselsan’s Koral electronic warfare system and other homegrown radar systems enhanced the effectiveness of air, land and sea platforms in modern warfare through radar detection, electronic jamming, early warning and sensor superiority.
Indigenous technologies
Meanwhile, the PD170, TF6000 and KTJ engine projects brought power system developments for UAV engines, turbofans, cruise missile engines and more.
These projects have been key to ensuring platform independence in defense through indigenous engine technologies.
At the same time, Turkish defense transformed its export model from direct product sales to a broader approach that includes training, maintenance and sustainment, system integration, co-production and technology cooperation.
Turkish defense products are exported to some 185 countries, and around 230 different product types are actively used worldwide.
The sector’s primary goal this year is to further independence efforts in critical technologies, establish high-volume mass production capacity and permanently expand its share in the global market.
Business partnerships should complement the strong political relations between Türkiye and Pakistan, Khawaja Khurram Naeem, the Consul General of Pakistan in Istanbul, said on Thursday, also pointing to the potential of the Pakistani economy and a push to encourage investment and growth.
“We strongly believe that government-to-government cooperation must be complemented by the robust business-to-business engagement,” Naeem said in an address to the “Global Excellence Award Ceremony,” organized by the Islamabad Chamber of Commerce and Industry (ICCI) in Istanbul.
Starting his speech, the consul general noted that the close relationship between Türkiye and Pakistan, two brotherly countries, is “based on a shared history, mutual trust, and a common vision for economic prosperity.”
He added that the business forum provided an important opportunity to further strengthen commercial and investment ties between the two nations.
Pointing to positive developments in Pakistan’s economy, Naeem said the Islamabad government has taken important steps to encourage investment and create a more business-friendly environment.
“The government’s commitment to gradually reducing the corporate tax rate to a more competitive level demonstrates the determination to encourage investment and economic growth,” he added.
He also went on to highlight the potential for regional cooperation involving Türkiye, Pakistan and Central Asia amid the changing geopolitical landscape.
Naeem said Pakistan has particularly significant potential in the textile and ready-made garment sectors, while also noting that the country has extensive production capacity and a young population.
“Sustainable economic growth can only be achieved through active cooperation between the private sectors of both countries, reciprocal visits, and the establishment of long-term partnerships,” he said.
Naeem invited business representatives to explore new opportunities, forge new connections, and develop mutually beneficial partnerships through the forum.
In his speech, Naeem also thanked all the institutions that contributed to organizing the event, particularly the Islamabad Chamber of Commerce and Industry and the Istanbul Chamber of Commerce (ITO), and other Turkish partners, and expressed hope that economic activities between Pakistan and Türkiye would continue to grow stronger.
At the event, the business leaders recalled that the current bilateral trade volume between Türkiye and Pakistan of around $1.2 billion is relatively modest and urged for more steps, including more B2B meetings and reciprocal visits, to elevate the cooperation.
South Korean automaker Hyundai on Friday started mass production of its new all-electric IONIQ 3 model at a factory in Türkiye’s northwestern Kocaeli province.
It makes Hyundai the first foreign automaker to manufacture battery-powered passenger cars in Türkiye and also marks the company’s first EV production in Europe.
The launch represents a significant step in Türkiye’s strategy to position itself as a regional production hub for electric vehicles and battery technologies while attracting new investments in next-generation mobility.
Industry and Technology Minister Mehmet Fatih Kacır said the investment demonstrates growing international confidence in Türkiye’s manufacturing capabilities and industrial ecosystem.
“The investment is one of the most concrete outcomes of our vision to make Türkiye one of the leading countries in next-generation mobility technologies,” Kacır told the start-of-production ceremony at Hyundai Motor Türkiye’s Izmit plant.
In June, Hyundai also announced it would build a new 55 million euros ($63.8 million) battery assembly facility that it says will strengthen the investment in the production of the IONIQ 3.
The facility will assemble battery packs using automated systems in cooperation with Hyundai Mobis.
“An international automaker is producing a fully electric passenger vehicle in our country for the first time,” said Kacır.
“The accompanying battery investment demonstrates that Türkiye has crossed an important threshold in its goal of becoming a global production hub for electric vehicles and battery technologies.”
Hyundai is investing approximately 250 million euros in the project and will initially produce 30,000 IONIQ 3 vehicles annually at the Izmit facility.
The plant has operated in Türkiye for nearly three decades and is Hyundai’s first and longest-running overseas manufacturing facility outside South Korea.
It has produced 13 different models and about 3.3 million vehicles since operations began in 1997. The Izmit plant currently produces the i20 and Bayon models.
Government investment incentives have helped expand the factory’s annual production capacity from 50,000 vehicles in 2002 to 230,000 today.
Hyundai Motor Group plans to invest $90 billion globally by 2030, launching 21 fully electric and 13 hybrid models.
Building on Türkiye’s automotive industry
Kacır said the automotive industry has become one of the main pillars of Turkish manufacturing, increasing annual production from 357,000 vehicles to 1.5 million over the past 23 years.
Automotive exports have risen to $41.5 billion from $4.8 billion in 2002.
The sector directly employs around 60,000 workers in vehicle manufacturing and nearly 250,000 in the supplier industry.
Kacır said the government views the global shift toward electrification, connected vehicles and autonomous driving technologies as an opportunity to strengthen Türkiye’s industrial competitiveness.
He reiterated that the domestically developed Togg electric vehicle project was conceived not only as a car brand but as the foundation of a broader mobility ecosystem encompassing battery technologies, software, power electronics and charging infrastructure.
“The success of our new mobility vision depends on expanding the transformation initiated by Togg across the entire automotive industry,” he said.
“It is therefore extremely important that global manufacturers already producing in Türkiye direct their next-generation mobility investments to our country.”
EV market expanding rapidly
Türkiye’s domestic electric vehicle market has also grown rapidly.
Kacır said more than 450,000 electric vehicles are currently on Turkish roads, while fully electric models account for more than 17% of local vehicle sales this year.
The government expects the number of electric vehicles in circulation to exceed 1.5 million by 2030.
Kacır said Türkiye offers international investors significant advantages, including a large domestic market of 86 million people, a $1.6 trillion economy, an extensive supplier network and logistics infrastructure, as well as preferential access to around one billion consumers through the customs union with the European Union and free trade agreements.
Kacır said Hyundai’s investment is expected to encourage additional next-generation mobility projects and attract further foreign investment, particularly from South Korean companies.
“We hope Hyundai’s investment decision will serve as an example for other South Korean companies,” he said.
“Türkiye will continue to support all investors who produce, develop technology, create qualified employment and strengthen our position in global value chains.”
Inflation expectations among market participants in Türkiye rose slightly for the end of the year but dropped for the 12-month horizon, a survey showed on Friday.
According to the Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye’s (CBRT) survey for August, year-end consumer price inflation is expected to reach 29.43%, up from 29.21% in the previous survey.
The 12-month inflation forecast declined to 23.69% from 23.95%, indicating that participants continue to expect disinflation over the coming year despite a slightly higher projection for the end of 2026.
Forecasts for inflation in 24 months time, however, edged up to 18.03% from 17.83%, the survey showed.
Türkiye’s annual consumer price inflation eased to 31.75% in July 2026, down from 32.11% in June.
On Thursday, the CBRT adjusted its end-2026 inflation forecast upward to 28% from 26% mainly due to energy and food price pressures. But it left its interim target unchanged at 24%.
The bank also kept its interim inflation targets for end-2027 and end-2028 at 15% and 9%, respectively.
Friday’s survey also showed a weaker outlook for the Turkish lira. Participants raised their year-end U.S. dollar/lira forecast to 51.66 from 51.55, while the 12-month exchange rate expectation increased to 57.43 from 56.69.
Growth expectations were broadly unchanged. Respondents maintained their 2026 GDP growth forecast at 3.1%, while trimming their projection for the following year to 4% from 4.1%.
The survey continued to point to expectations of gradual monetary easing by the central bank.
Participants expect the CBRT to keep its policy rate at 37% at its next Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting. They see the one-week repo rate declining to 36.13% at the following meeting and 35.25% at the third meeting.
Respondents now expect the policy rate to stand at 29.59% in 12 months time, slightly higher than in the previous survey.
Higher oil prices that have weighed on inflation expectations have prompted the CBRT to keep its one-week repo rate unchanged for four straight months.
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