Economy
AI hopes, fears dominate central bankers’ meeting in Portugal
Being part of almost every conversation at this week’s meeting of the global central bankers was one big unknown: How artificial intelligence will impact the world economy and therefore their mandate to ensure financial stability.
The consensus of those discussions at the European Central Bank’s (ECB) annual conference in the windy hills of Portugal was that AI has the power to disrupt everything and create problems they can’t even imagine right now: in financial and labor markets, in bank lending, for security, and even for power demand.
“If AI overdelivers, it will impact financial stability. If AI underdelivers, it will impact financial stability,” Torsten Slok at Apollo Global Management told the arbiters of interest rates around the world at one of the main panel sessions in the resort of Sintra.
AI was such an overarching theme in Sintra that the topic found its way into every discussion, from immigration and supervision to climate.
It even outdid new Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh, making his debut meeting with fellow central bankers, as the clear star of the three-day show.
While AI can improve every corner of life, many speakers feared that it can also disrupt it, at times illegally, and that finance officials have few, if any, tools to stop it.
“This is the biggest time of consequence to each of our economies, I think, in our lifetime,” Warsh said about the AI revolution.
“Who knew when the internet was born that the internet was going to create a million and a half jobs as Uber drivers? We are in the first to second inning of this revolution,” he told the ECB Forum.
Inflating bubbles
In the case of trading, automation is already running most functions. But an AI-driven boost could inflate bubbles at warp speed, then crash them, profiting both on the way up and on the way down in a type of collusion that is now illegal.
“Something that is even more advanced and potentially more disturbing is the ability of these algorithms to coordinate on a manipulative path of prices,” University of Pennsylvania professor Itay Goldstein said.
“These algorithms indeed manage to achieve this kind of manipulation, creating bubbles leading to crashes, and this, I think, has more significant implications for financial stability,” he added.
One potential bubble AI is already creating is that of AI stocks, in part generated by massive capital spending on the building blocks of AI, which Slok estimated had added one percentage point to U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) alone.
While valuations have retreated in recent weeks, experts liken the rapid rise in pricing to some of the biggest asset price busts in history, like the British railway mania of the 1840s, the roaring 1920s, or the dotcom boom.
“The scale and pace of the current AI investment boom, accompanied by expectations of large productivity payoffs, bear a resemblance to these precedents, highlighting potential downside risks in the near term,” the Bank for International Settlements said in a report.
Supervising the unexplainable
AI will also help but complicate lending. Banks will be able to do more sophisticated credit analysis and extend funding to borrowers now outside their traditional sphere.
But supervising this will be a nightmare.
“How do supervisors assess those kinds of agentic loan decisions? They are a little bit black box. There’s potentially a lack of explainability, and I think that is a key supervisory challenge,” Tobias Adrian, a senior IMF official, said.
AI will also drive a wedge between richer and poorer firms and countries.
Defending against malicious threats will become even more expensive, and otherwise viable firms will struggle to protect themselves.
“When you think of the most outrageous attacks, they’re often attacking the weakest link,” Adrian said.
Sarah Breeden, a Bank of England deputy governor, said a potential solution may be to create some sort of insurance scheme, likening it to deposit insurance in case of bank failures.
“In a cyber context, do we need systems that allow one institution to pick up another’s basic functions during disruption?” she said.
But the ultimate risk is that the excessive success of AI could fundamentally undermine the global economy.
If AI delivers on some of the most optimistic efficiency expectations, machines could replace humans en masse, leading to large unemployment. This then reduces disposable incomes and pushes the economy into recession, undermining the case for the investment.
But if AI is less successful, then the massive investment in the sector fails to deliver the expected returns.
“The internet proved to be better than anybody imagined, created whole new businesses, but we still got the dotcom bubble,” Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem said. “It doesn’t mean there can’t be a period where the market gets ahead of itself, and you see an entrenchment.”
Türkiye will gradually phase out its fuel tax adjustment mechanism by October, scaling back a measure introduced to cushion consumers from soaring oil prices during the Iran war.
The government activated the so-called sliding-scale system in March, allowing reductions in the special consumption tax (ÖTV) to offset increases in global oil prices and limit their impact on domestic fuel prices and inflation.
Under the scheme, the government absorbed up to 75% of fuel price increases by reducing the excise tax, helping to contain the inflationary effects of oil prices, which rose by more than 50% during the conflict.
According to a presidential decree published in the Official Gazette on Friday, the tax relief will be reduced in stages before the mechanism is fully abolished.
The forgone excise tax will be capped at 50% of fuel price increases through the end of July, before being lowered to 25% during August and September.
The decree also stipulates that if refinery prices decline, the government will fully restore the corresponding amount of excise tax, rather than restoring only 75% as under the previous system.
The revised rules took effect immediately, while the sliding-scale mechanism will be terminated on Oct. 1.
Türkiye’s exports grew by nearly 22% in a record-breaking June, as trade rebounded despite geopolitical tensions led by the Iran war and volatility in global commodities, Trade Minister Ömer Bolat said Friday.
Outbound shipments rose by 21.9% compared to the same month last year, reaching $24.94 billion (TL 1.17 trillion), Bolat told a press conference in Istanbul.
“June went down in the records as a spectacular month for exports. We reached almost $25 billion in monthly exports. This is a record for the month of June,” he said.
It also marked the third-highest monthly figure ever recorded after $26.4 billion in December 2025 and $25.4 billion this April, he added.
Imports rose 23.1% to $35.32 billion, meaning the foreign trade deficit was up by 26.3% from a year ago to $10.38 billion.
“Imports in June also marked the second-highest monthly import figure on record,” said Bolat.
Exports in the first six months rose 3.6% from a year earlier to $136.1 billion, while imports increased 4.6% to $189.2 billion, he noted. The trade deficit rose 7.4% to nearly $53.1 billion.
Türiye Exporters Assembly (TIM) head Mustafa Gültepe said, despite the challenges, the overall picture for the first six months showed “Turkish exporters are not giving up on producing, seeking new markets, and bringing foreign currency into the country.”
The war launched by the U.S. and Israel on Iran on Feb. 28 halted shipments and sent energy prices up sharply due to the closure of the strategic Strait of Hormuz.
The pressures have eased somewhat after the U.S. and Iran announced an interim agreement two weeks ago, but there are no signs yet that they have made headway toward a lasting peace.
Though traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has partially resumed, the status of the key waterway remains unclear.
Annualized record
Meanwhile, Türkiye’s rolling 12-month exports climbed to a record $278 billion. Imports climbed to $373.7 billion.
That took Türkiye’s total annual foreign trade volume to nearly $652 billion, an increase of $29 billion compared with the previous year.
Bolat said the annualized trade deficit stood at $95.8 billion as of the end of June, compared with $92.2 billion at the end of 2025.
He noted that exports performed strongly despite rising petrochemical and freight rates due to the U.S.-Iran conflict.
“We’ve had a very difficult year, and it’s still ongoing … The period from March to May, the spread of the U.S.-Iran conflict to Gulf countries and the resulting sharp increases in petrochemical and logistics costs; a grueling half-year is being left behind,” said the minister.
Bolat also said annualized goods and services exports exceeded $400 billion for the first time ever, reaching $400.3 billion.
“We have already increased annual exports by $4.7 billion in the first six months. Our year-end target is $282 billion, and we expect to exceed it,” he said.
Gulf shipments rebound
Friday’s data showed the automotive industry ranked first in exports with $3.8 billion, followed by the chemicals and chemical products with $3.3 billion, the steel industry with $1.75 billion, the electrical and electronics sector with $1.66 billion and the ready-to-wear and apparel products with $1.4 billion.
TIM’s Gültepe said the exchange rate had negatively impacted exports for the first time in more than a year.
“For the first time in exactly 14 months, we suffered an exchange rate-related loss of approximately $12 million.”
With growing hopes for peace, Gültepe said there is a positive trend in exports to Gulf countries.
“In June, our exports to these countries rose by 41% to $2.64 billion. The trend in our exports to all countries in the region has turned positive,” he said.
Exporters expect an even more positive trend in exports to the Gulf in the second half of the year if lasting peace is achieved, he added.
Belgian Defense Minister Theo Francken said Friday Türkiye is an important ally for NATO and Europe should benefit from Turkish technology in defense production.
Francken’s remarks come ahead of what many expect to be a historic NATO summit in Türkiye next week.
“I think it will be a very important summit,” Francken told Anadolu Agency (AA).
At the gathering in Ankara next Tuesday and Wednesday, Europeans aim to set aside strife with U.S. President Donald Trump over Iran and Greenland and show they are stepping up to defend the continent as Washington cuts back on its commitments to the alliance.
Arms deals worth tens of billions of dollars are expected to be signed during the summit.
Francken said NATO has faced difficult times recently, and therefore, unity is needed more than ever.
“There was discussion about the Middle East, about the war against the Iranian regime, we had some tensions on opening the military bases for American aircraft, we had some discussions about stepping up on defense spending,” Francken said. “So, yeah, of course, it was not the easiest year for NATO.”
He stressed the need to work together on defense investment, the NATO Force Model, increasing production, air defense and new technologies. “United we stand, divided we fall and I think that is the most important: show unity,” he said.
In The Hague last year, NATO leaders agreed to spend 3.5% of GDP on core defense items such as weapons and troops by 2035, up from a previous goal of 2%. They also agreed to invest a further 1.5% of GDP on broader defense-related investments such as boosting cybersecurity.
Francken also noted the NATO Summit Defense Industry Forum that is planned to be organized on the sidelines of the Ankara summit.
Among the priorities that should be stressed during the gathering, he cited technology, air defense and higher industrial production, as well as support for Ukraine.
‘NATO 3.0’ vision
About the “NATO 3.0” vision expected to take shape at the Ankara meeting, Francken said it means Belgium and European allies must assume more responsibility.
“It means that Belgium and European allies need to step up, invest highly in defense and be there to take the security architecture of the European continent into our own hands,” he said.
“That is actually the challenge, and that’s what we need to do,” he added.
The past 12 months have severely strained the alliance, with Trump threatening to take Greenland from fellow NATO member Denmark and then waging a war against Iran that roiled the global economy without consulting European allies.
The U.S. has also announced troop withdrawals from Europe, cut the forces it assigns to NATO’s defense plans – including an aircraft carrier, refuelling aircraft, fighter jets and drones – and launched a six-month review of its military presence on the continent.
On the possibility of the U.S. reducing its military contribution in Europe and Europe filling the gaps, Francken said NATO needs strong planning.
“What we need to do is have good planning, NATO planning. The SACEUR, Supreme Allied Commander, is doing this,” he said. “It’s important that we really get that going, have good plans and follow those plans.”
Francken said this means meeting targets and filling all capability gaps, because U.S. troops and capabilities will be withdrawn from Europe as Washington pivots toward Asia and the Pacific.
“That means that we have to step up and fulfil our challenges, fill those gaps and that’s what we need to do,” he said.
Regarding Belgium’s plans, Francken said his country would allocate air-to-air refueling aircraft, F-16 fighter jets, MQ-9B SkyGuardian drones and intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance capabilities under the NATO Force Model.
“We are immediately ready to deploy more for NATO from the Belgian defense,” he said.
‘Can learn a lot’ from Türkiye’s tech
Francken also addressed the contributions of Türkiye to NATO.
“Türkiye is a very important ally. It’s a long-standing ally. It’s a country that is very important within NATO,” he said. “So, yes, we need Türkiye within NATO, and I hope that we can work very well together.”
Francken also stressed that Türkiye should be included in Europe’s defense programs aimed at strengthening its military as it steps up efforts to boost security amid heightened geopolitical risks.
“For me, Türkiye needs to be in SAFE-II,” he said, referring to the EU’s defense financing mechanism. “I think that it’s necessary to have a SAFE-II package on loans, European loans, and I think Türkiye needs to be in. The fact that Türkiye was not in SAFE-I, it is a mistake,” he said.
“We can learn a lot from your technology,” he added.
Noting that Belgium cooperates with Türkiye in many fields, Francken said the two countries carry out many training activities together under the NATO umbrella.
“I think that we can also look to do procurement together, industrial cooperation together,” he said.
The Belgian defense chief also spoke about his country’s extensive economic mission to Türkiye last month, saying cooperation continues and new contracts are still being signed.
“We had our economic mission to Türkiye, and now, still, there are contracts coming out,” he said. “So, even months after, you see that the economic mission gives really good results. So, that’s something positive, and we go with that flow; we continue.”
Türkiye’s defense and aerospace exports exceeded $11 billion (TL 514.86 billion) on a rolling 12-month basis for the first time ever, a top official said on Friday.
Haluk Görgün, head of the Presidency of Defense Industries (SSB), said defense and aerospace shipments rose 29.6% year-over-year in June to $802.8 million.
Exports in the January-June period increased 29.5% from a year earlier to $4.67 billion, he wrote on the social media platform X.
Görgün attributed the sector’s performance to the growing international recognition of Turkish defense products and the continued expansion of the country’s industrial ecosystem.
“Our systems have proven their success in the field, and with an ecosystem that continues to deepen, we are establishing lasting partnerships on a global scale,” he said.
Türkiye’s defense exports rose about 48% year-over-year in 2025 to a record of more than $10 billion.
The goal has been to lift this full-year figure to $11 billion in the near term, placing Türkiye among the world’s top 10 defense exporters.
In recent years, NATO member Türkiye has significantly ramped up its defense industry production.
It has injected billions of dollars to transform from a nation heavily reliant on equipment from abroad to one that is a major exporter and where homegrown systems now meet almost all of its defense industry needs.
For much of the past two decades, Ankara has expressed frustration over its Western allies’ failure to provide adequate defense systems against missile threats despite Türkiye being a major NATO member.
The country currently exports more than 230 defense systems to 185 countries.
Türkiye’s annual inflation cooled in June after two months of faster price growth linked to the fallout from the Iran war, according to data Friday that top officials said signaled the return of disinflation trend.
The annual rate eased to 32.1% from 32.6% in May, the Turkish Statistical Institute (TurkStat) said.
The decline in inflation had stalled in April, mainly due to the rise in energy prices caused by the war launched by the U.S. and Israel on Iran on Feb. 28.
On a monthly basis, consumer prices rose 0.99% in June, slowing from 1.7% in May, the data showed.
The Iran war sent energy prices up sharply due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, renewing inflationary pressures worldwide and fueling expectations of tighter monetary policy across many countries.
Fertilizer costs had also gone up significantly, raising concerns about a major food supply crisis.
The pressures have eased somewhat after the U.S. and Iran announced an interim agreement two weeks ago, but there are no signs yet that they have made headway toward a lasting peace.
Though traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, which handled one-fifth of global oil and liquid natural gas trade before the war, has partially resumed, the status of the strategic waterway remains unclear and the two countries exchanged strikes last weekend.
“The disinflation process, which had been interrupted by rising global energy prices due to supply shocks, has resumed,” Turkish Treasury and Finance Minister Mehmet Şimşek said following the data release.
Vice President Cevdet Yılmaz also said the downward trend is back and is expected to continue.
On an annual basis, education prices rose 46.1% in June, while housing costs, including energy bills, increased 45.1%, down from 45.59% in May.
Food prices were up 35.4%, healthcare costs rose 33.6%, while transportation prices increased 31.15%.
On a monthly basis, housing costs rose 2.30%, while food prices increased 0.17%. Transportation prices edged down 0.05%.
Downward trend seen continuing
Şimşek said the limited 0.2% monthly increase in food prices, driven by the extended decline in fresh fruit and vegetable prices, and the drop in fuel costs supported the inflation outlook.
“We expect disinflation to continue for the remainder of the year, supported by the normalization of commodity prices, rule-based pricing practices, a downward trend in rent inflation and a moderate demand outlook,” he wrote on the social media platform X.
Yılmaz said the factors supporting the disinflation process are expected to become more pronounced in the second half of the year.
“The trend toward normalization in global conditions and steps toward peace and diplomacy aimed at reducing geopolitical tensions are limiting the pressures on energy and commodity prices, which supports the outlook for external cost conditions,” he said on X.
He also noted that a more favorable outlook following last year’s drought and frost could support food inflation. “The low volatility of the Turkish lira and increased predictability are also contributing to the disinflation process through pricing behavior and expectations,” Yılmaz added.
Ahead of the data, Dutch financial giant ING said that if June inflation confirmed that disinflation had resumed, the central bank could restart weekly repo auctions and bring the weighted average cost of funding closer to the 37% policy rate.
Last month, the Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye (CBRT) held its one-week repo rate steady for a third consecutive meeting as it monitored the impact of the Middle East conflict.
Since the war started, the bank has halted an easing cycle that began in late 2024 and taken other liquidity steps that pushed the Turkish lira overnight rate up to the 40% limit.
The CBRT raised its end-2026 inflation forecast to 24% from 16% in its quarterly inflation report published in mid-May, saying the short-term inflationary effects of the Iran war would remain “pronounced.”
The bank projects inflation falling to 15% at the end of 2027 and 9% at the end of 2028.
CBRT Governor Fatih Karahan has said the duration of regional tensions and any disruption to energy supplies would be key to assessing the inflationary impact.
The TurkStat data also showed the domestic producer price index rose 1.80% month-over-month in June for an annual increase of 28.09%.
Türkiye’s annual consumer inflation eased to 32.11% in June, below market expectations, as monthly price increases remained limited amid slower energy-linked pressure, official data showed on Friday.
The consumer price index (CPI) rose 0.99% on a monthly basis, while inflation climbed 17.76% from the end of last year, according to the Turkish Statistical Institute (TurkStat).
The annual figure slowed from 32.61% in May, signaling a renewed moderation in headline inflation.
Housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels posted the highest annual increase among the three largest expenditure groups, rising 45.14% year-over-year, down from 45.59% in May. The group contributed 5.92 percentage points to annual inflation.
Food and non-alcoholic beverages rose 35.45% annually, contributing 8.61 percentage points to the headline figure, while transportation prices increased 31.15%, adding 5.19 percentage points.
On a monthly basis, housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels rose 2.30%, contributing 0.27 percentage points to monthly inflation.
Food and non-alcoholic beverages increased 0.17% month-on-month, while transportation prices edged down 0.05%, limiting upward pressure on the headline reading.
Among the 174 subclasses covered by the index, prices rose in 138, fell in 26 and remained unchanged in 10.
The special CPI aggregate excluding unprocessed food, energy, alcoholic beverages, tobacco and gold rose 1.66% month-on-month, and 31.18% year-on-year in June.
The 12-month average inflation rate stood at 32.03%.
Minister of Internal Affairs Mustafa Çiftçi: Türkiye’s Century is a great claim to civilization
Minister of Health Kemal Memişoğlu: Türkiye has become one of the countries that provide the best health services in the world
Türkiye to phase out fuel tax offset mechanism by October
Minister of Internal Affairs Mustafa Çiftçi: Türkiye’s Century is a great claim to civilization
Minister of Health Kemal Memişoğlu: Türkiye has become one of the countries that provide the best health services in the world
Türkiye to phase out fuel tax offset mechanism by October
-
Economy2 days agoTrump earned about $1.2 billion from crypto last year: Filling
-
Refugees15 hours agoErdogan’s ties to Trump helped get the US leader to NATO summit
-
Economy2 days agoCBRT ends additional lira reserve requirement ratio for FX deposits
-
Daily Agenda1 day agoFather of July 15 martyr police officer Fırat Bulut: “I lost my son, but I gained my homeland”
-
Daily Agenda3 days agoBREAKING NEWS… President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan convened the Presidential Cabinet…
-
Politics2 days agoTurkish intel chief visits Iraq for talks on security cooperation
-
Economy2 days agoTürkiye says interested in joining EU’s payment system
-
Daily Agenda2 days agoBREAKING NEWS… Harsh words from Afyonkarahisar Mayor Burcu Köksal to CHP: Seat fight in CHP, service politics in AK Party!