Politics
Battle to host next COP heats up between Türkiye, Australia
Diplomats at the COP30 climate summit in Brazil are caught between two choices: the Australians pouring flat whites, or the Turkish offering strong brews next door.
Their proximity is convenient for a caffeine fix but awkwardly close for Türkiye and Australia, which are locked in a stalemate over who should host next year’s U.N. climate talks.
Both countries are bidding for COP31 and neither is backing down, creating an unfortunate distraction at the ongoing negotiations where Brazil is desperate to show that climate diplomacy still works.
Ankara and Canberra are under pressure to break the impasse and avoid a scene in Belem, a city in the Amazon Rainforest steamy enough without any added drama.
The host must be chosen by consensus so unless Türkiye or Australia withdraws its bid, or they somehow agree to share the duty, both countries will miss out.
Such an occurrence would be unprecedented and see COP31 hosting rights default to Germany, which does not want the job.
Against this backdrop, some observers detect a calculated move in positioning the Turkish and Australian pavilions as close as possible within the cavernous COP30 venue.
“One hundred percent deliberate. The Brazil presidency is like, sort this out,” Kathryn McCallum, an activist from Climate Action Network Australia, told Agence France-Presse (AFP) in Belem.
“They don’t want it dragging down this really critical conversation.”
Tough talk
The close confines did not deter roughly two dozen Australian and Pacific supporters from promoting their COP31 bid on Thursday in full view of the Turkish pavilion and its crescent moon flag.
On a recent evening, AFP saw an excited crowd swarm the Australian pavilion when Queen Mary of Denmark, a native of Tasmania, paid a royal visit.
Apart from the lure of free coffee, Türkiye’s on-site calligrapher has proved a big hit, with visitors to its pavilion leaving with customized illustrations and woven tote bags.
But away from the COP30 pavilions, soft diplomacy is giving way to hard talk.
Brazil has appointed an envoy to nudge Australia and Türkiye toward agreement before the summit wraps up on Nov. 21, but neither country is blinking.
On Thursday, Prime Minister Anthony Albanese told reporters in Sydney that President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan was “maintaining his position in response to Australia maintaining our position.”
When asked by AFP if confident of a resolution in Belem, Turkish climate diplomat Ayşin Turpancı said: “We are still committed to host COP31.”
Australia had engaged with Türkiye “at the highest levels” and wanted to see the matter resolved, the country’s assistant climate minister, Josh Wilson, told AFP.
“But it’s clear from my engagement in recent days that our bid has very broad and strong international support,” he said, adding the case for Australia to co-host with the Pacific was “compelling.”
But Türkiye, too, is confident it has the numbers.
“The chances for Türkiye and Australia are 50-50,” a source from the Turkish delegation told AFP.
Down to the wire
Past summits have entertained competing bids, but “there’s never been one that has gone to the wire like this,” Alden Meyer, a COP veteran from climate think tank E3G, told AFP.
Under the COP rules, hosting duties rotate through five blocs of countries.
In 2026, that falls to the Western European and other states, two dozen countries mostly in Europe but also Türkiye, Australia, Canada and a few others.
If no consensus is reached, the summit reverts to Bonn, a city in western Germany that hosts the U.N.’s climate secretariat.
“I can imagine, I know, that Germany is not looking to host this COP,” Jennifer Morgan, a former climate envoy to Germany, told AFP in Belem.
As both countries dig their heels in, Ethiopia is already being celebrated for being endorsed for COP32 in 2027, underscoring how little time next year’s hosts will have to prepare.
Among those also awaiting an outcome in Belem are Pacific nations, which have long campaigned to bring the world’s attention to the climate peril at their doorstep.
“The sooner we know, the better, and hopefully in Australia,” Vishal Prasad, the Fijian director of Pacific Islands Students Fighting Climate Change, told AFP.
Türkiye has previously argued its Mediterranean location would help reduce emissions from flights bringing delegates to the conference, and has pointed out its smaller oil and gas industry compared to Australia.
Türkiye has felt the effects of climate change, with repeated extreme weather events, including heat waves. Major Turkish lakes, such as Lake Van in the east and Lake Tuz in Central Anatolia, are drying up.
In October 2021, Türkiye became the last Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) and G-20 country to sign the Paris Agreement on limiting the effects of climate change.
According to official statistics, 36.2% of Türkiye’s electricity was generated from coal in 2023, and 21% from natural gas. Hydropower contributed 19.3%, wind 10%, and solar power 7%.
The government aims for solar power to generate half of the country’s electricity by 2035.
Türkiye on Tuesday strongly condemned Israeli airstrikes on the Abu al-Duhur Military Air Base in Syria’s northwestern Idlib province, warning that Israel’s escalating attacks are undermining the country’s territorial integrity and stability.
In a statement issued Aug. 18, the Foreign Ministry said Israeli forces carried out airstrikes on the military facility, located in the Idlib countryside, in the early hours of Tuesday.
“We strongly condemn the airstrikes carried out by Israel early this morning against the Abu al-Duhur Military Air Base in the countryside of Syria’s Idlib,” the ministry said.
The ministry criticized Israel for “recklessly” continuing attacks targeting Syria’s infrastructure and capabilities while violating the country’s territorial integrity and unity.
Ankara also urged the international community to take a firmer stance against Israel’s increasingly aggressive actions in Syria.
“We call on the international community to adopt a more resolute position to put an end to Israel’s aggression against Syria, which is taking on a new dimension with each passing day, and to ensure accountability for these actions that disregard international law,” the ministry said.
The statement comes amid heightened tensions over Israeli violations in Syria, with Türkiye repeatedly stressing the need to preserve Syria’s sovereignty, territorial integrity and political unity.
Meanwhile, Presidential Communications Director Burhanettin Duran strongly condemned the Israeli airstrike on the Abu al-Duhur Military Air Base.
“These attacks targeting Syria’s sovereignty, territorial integrity and infrastructure are a continuation of a reckless policy of aggression that threatens regional peace and stability,” Duran said.
He said that Türkiye, under the leadership of President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, would continue to support Syria’s sovereignty and territorial integrity and oppose any attempt that threatens peace and stability in the region.
Israel’s recent strikes on a military base in Syria’s northwestern Idlib province and the use of President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s image in an election poster by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud party bearing the slogan “They want Netanyahu to lose” are seen by experts as signs of the growing political and strategic pressure Netanyahu is facing.
“The circumstantial aspect of the issue is that, as Israel heads into an election period, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s main concern is finding a new political target,” Gökhan Çınkara, an associate professor at Necmettin Erbakan University and director of the Global and Regional Studies Center, told Daily Sabah.
“This was already evident in the campaign poster he used for the election,” he said, adding that the decline in support for Netanyahu’s Likud party could be seen as another indication of the pressure he faces.
As Israel’s Oct. 27 elections approach, political parties have stepped up their campaigning.
A new election poster displayed by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud party on a billboard in Tel Aviv features images of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan alongside Iranian leader Mojtaba Khamenei, Hezbollah Secretary-General Naim Qassem and New York Mayor Zohran Mamdani.
“They want Netanyahu to lose. Don’t let them win,” as seen in the poster.
The campaign comes amid an increase in rhetoric targeting Türkiye and President Erdoğan by Israeli politicians ahead of the Oct. 27 vote.
Çınkara also remarked that Netanyahu’s political predicament and lack of a clear policy agenda has led him to target figures such as New York Mayor Zohran Mamdani and President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan in an effort to consolidate his electoral base.
Alongside Netanyahu’s campaign move involving Erdoğan, diplomatic pressure on Tel Aviv is also mounting over the war in Gaza. On Tuesday, Jared Kushner, U.S. President Donald Trump’s son-in-law and special envoy, met Netanyahu to discuss efforts toward a cease-fire in Gaza.
The talks, which lasted about four hours, focused on obstacles to a cease-fire and arrangements for the postwar period. According to U.S. media reports, Kushner urged Netanyahu not to obstruct efforts to reach a cease-fire agreement.
Ufuk Necat Taşçı, assistant professor of International Relations at Çanakkale Onsekiz Mart University also noted that Israel entered the conflict with Iran on the basis of flawed intelligence assessments, while largely failing to achieve its main objectives.
He pointed to factors including Gadi Eisenkot’s growing political prominence and internal divisions within Netanyahu’s Likud party as signs of mounting domestic pressure.
As Kushner met Netanyahu, Trump also made remarks on Gaza, pointing to Hamas’ decision to lay down its arms.
“Israel should stop bombing Gaza,” Trump said.
Trump also stated it would not be appropriate for him to become directly involved in Israel’s Oct. 27 elections, though he said he could endorse a candidate.
Furthermore, Merve Suna Özel Özcan, associate professor and the vice chair of the International Relations Department at Kırıkkale University, said anti-Türkiye rhetoric is increasingly being used as a tool for electoral mobilization in Israel, with President Erdoğan portrayed not only as a regional rival but also as an external threat that could help Netanyahu rally support and bolster his political position.
She noted that portraying Türkiye as a potential security threat is not a new development in Israel, pointing to the Nagel Committee report, which had previously raised concerns over Ankara’s growing regional influence, particularly in Syria.
“Against this backdrop, Erdoğan’s appearance in Israeli election propaganda and the targeting of potential Turkish military capabilities in Syria should not be viewed as developments that emerged overnight,” the expert said. “Rather, they are the political and military manifestations of a threat narrative that has been developing for some time.”
Recently, Haaretz, an Israeli newspaper known for its criticism of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government, published an analysis arguing that Netanyahu has portrayed Türkiye as a major threat in an apparent effort to gain an electoral advantage while also examining Ankara’s bid to acquire F-35 fighter jets from the United States.
The analysis recalled that President Erdoğan and U.S. President Trump projected a warm rapport during the NATO summit in Ankara and that Washington signaled openness to a potential F-35 sale to Türkiye. It said those developments have been met with growing concern within both the Israeli government and the Israeli public, stating: “The election is approaching, and the ‘Mr. Security’ campaign has begun. In a calculated move, Benjamin Netanyahu last week launched a blitz of interviews, phone calls and statements in an attempt to block the sale of F-35 jets to Türkiye.”
Özcan offered that the changing regional environment following the Mecca Agreement should also be taken into consideration, while cautioning against portraying the agreement as an anti-Israel alliance.
All three countries support a two-state solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict based on the 1967 borders, the expert noted.
“From Israel’s perspective, therefore, the issue is not simply the emergence of another military mechanism, but the possibility that regional powers are beginning to build their own security and stability architecture,” she emphasized.
In an interview with the UAE-based The National, Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan last month discussed tensions between Türkiye and Israel, as well as the Israeli government’s regional policies.
Fidan said there was no reason for a direct confrontation between Türkiye and Israel, arguing that Netanyahu has increasingly resorted to hostile rhetoric as he seeks a new political adversary ahead of the country’s upcoming elections.
Aylin Ünver Noi, professor of International Relations and Vice Rector of Beykoz University, indicated that “This should be viewed as an attempt to group together figures who oppose Israel’s regional policies, particularly its policies toward Hamas and the Palestinians.”
Whether the strategy will prove effective remains uncertain, she said, but the choice of figures featured in the campaign is significant because they have been associated with opposition to Israeli policies on the Palestinian issue.
“Türkiye and, in this context, the New York mayor should also be assessed from this perspective,” the expert added.
New York Mayor Zohran Mamdani said last month that the city cannot enforce the international arrest warrant for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, but called on the federal government to act.
In the video, Mamdani described the Israeli prime minister as a “war criminal” and said he is not welcome in New York City.
“It is clear that we do not have the independent legal authority to enforce this warrant,” he said in a video posted on X. “The federal government, however, does and I call on them to join the ICC and execute this warrant,” he added, referring to the International Criminal Court.
Noi also described Türkiye’s broader foreign policy as focused on promoting regional and international stability and peace, pointing to Ankara’s diplomatic engagement in several conflict zones stretching from the Balkans and the South Caucasus to conflicts in Africa.
Israel, aggression in Syria
Israel has been carrying out incursions into Syrian territory since the December 2024 since the overthrow of the ousted Bashar Assad regime, including sending troops into a U.N.-patrolled buffer zone that separated Israeli and Syrian forces in the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights since 1974.
Israel, on Tuesday, carried out airstrikes on the Abu al-Duhur Military Air Base in Syria’s northwestern Idlib province, drawing attention from both Türkiye and regional countries.
Özcan stated that Israel’s latest strike in Syria should also be assessed within this broader context, arguing that the targeting of Abu al-Duhur Air Base could reflect Israeli concerns over Türkiye’s potential future military capabilities in the country.
“Although the base has remained largely inactive for some time, its potential future use by Türkiye suggests that Israel is concerned not only about existing threats but also about capabilities that could emerge in the future,” she said.
In a statement issued Aug. 18, the Foreign Ministry of Türkiye condemned the Israeli forces that carried out airstrikes on the military facility, located in the Idlib countryside, in the early hours of Tuesday.
“We strongly condemn the airstrikes carried out by Israel early this morning against the Abu al-Duhur Military Air Base in the countryside of Syria’s Idlib,” the ministry said.
The ministry criticized Israel for “recklessly” continuing attacks targeting Syria’s infrastructure and capabilities while violating the country’s territorial integrity and unity.
Ankara also urged the international community to take a firmer stance against Israel’s increasingly aggressive actions in Syria.
Çınkara also added that another key issue for Israel since the Oct. 7 attacks has been how to restore its eroded deterrence.
“Against this backdrop, Israel tends to perceive virtually any military activity in the region as a potential threat,” he underlined. “This has become one of the main factors driving Israel’s increasingly aggressive military posture in places such as Lebanon and Syria.”
Meanwhile, Presidential Communications Director Burhanettin Duran also strongly condemned the Israeli airstrike on the Abu al-Duhur Military Air Base.
“These attacks targeting Syria’s sovereignty, territorial integrity and infrastructure are a continuation of a reckless policy of aggression that threatens regional peace and stability,” Duran noted.
He said that Türkiye, under the leadership of President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, would continue to support Syria’s sovereignty and territorial integrity and oppose any attempt that threatens peace and stability in the region.
“Israel does not want a strong, unitary state on its border because it perceives such a state as a potential security threat,” Noi argued.
She also said the latest Israeli strikes should also be assessed against efforts to rehabilitate Syrian military infrastructure and Türkiye’s close relations with the new Syrian authorities.
“Türkiye has a fundamentally different approach,” Noi stressed. “Ankara wants to see a strong, unitary Syrian state and seeks to ensure its own security through stable relations with its neighbors.”
Türkiye’s broader regional policy is based on having stable and capable states along its borders and developing cooperative relations with them, according to her.
U.S. special envoy for Syria Tom Barrack said Thursday that Washington is working to establish a deconfliction mechanism among Israel, Türkiye and Syria following an Israeli strike on a Syrian air base near the Turkish border.
Referring to the possibility of a Turkish military response, Barrack said Türkiye, after observing aircraft heading toward its territory, may have “understandably prepared to respond.”
Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan held separate phone calls Tuesday with Qatari Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani and Syrian Foreign Minister Asaad Hassan al-Shaibani, diplomatic sources said.
Fidan and his Qatari counterpart discussed the situation in the Strait of Hormuz, according to the sources.
In a separate call with al-Shaibani, Fidan discussed the latest developments in the region.
The calls came amid heightened attention on regional developments and the situation surrounding the strategically important Strait of Hormuz.
Fidan met with his Qatari counterpart, Qatar’s Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani, on July 19, a few days after President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s visit to the country to extend condolences for the late emir Sheikh Hamad bin Khalifa Al Thani.
Türkiye and Qatar have steadily deepened their strategic partnership since establishing it in 2014 through high-level exchanges and bilateral agreements spanning a wide range of fields.
On the other hand, Fidan hosted his Syrian counterpart, Asaad Hassan al-Shaibani, in Ankara on July 6 as the two neighboring countries continue to deepen relations following the collapse of the Baathist regime in 2024.
Regarding the U.S.-Israel-Iran war, Syria’s top diplomat stressed that the fighting in the region should come to an end as soon as possible. He noted that the regional tensions were also affecting Syria and said Damascus condemned Iran’s attacks against the Gulf countries.
Civil society groups supporting Palestinians will hold simultaneous events in more than 17 countries on Wednesday to call for greater humanitarian access to Gaza as the world marks World Humanitarian Day.
The global initiative, called the “Voice of Humanity,” will take place across five continents on Aug. 19, according to Osman Nuri Kabaktepe, head of the Palestine Support Platform, one of the organizations participating in the campaign.
Speaking at a news conference in Istanbul, Kabaktepe called on the public to support the initiative, saying access to food, medicine, shelter and healthcare should be regarded as a fundamental right rather than a concession.
“We are talking about a right, not a favor,” Kabaktepe noted, arguing that restrictions on humanitarian assistance have left civilians in Gaza struggling to obtain essential supplies.
Kabaktepe said tens of thousands of civilians have been killed during Israel’s military campaign in Gaza and that children, women, patients and other vulnerable people continue to face difficulties accessing food and medical supplies.
He also accused Israel of failing to comply with provisions on humanitarian assistance under a cease-fire agreement, saying the arrangement envisaged the entry of at least 600 aid trucks into Gaza each day.
Kabaktepe called for the establishment of a humanitarian corridor and urged international organizations and institutions to work to ensure the delivery of aid into the Palestinian enclave.
As part of Wednesday’s campaign, supporters in Istanbul are expected to gather at Üsküdar Square at 6:30 p.m. local time.
Organizers will call for humanitarian assistance to be kept separate from political negotiations and for restrictions on aid deliveries to Gaza to be lifted.
“Humanitarian aid cannot be a matter of negotiation,” Kabaktepe underlined.
He urged international organizations and governments to increase efforts to secure humanitarian access to Gaza.
World Humanitarian Day is observed annually on Aug. 19 to recognize humanitarian workers and people affected by crises around the world.
Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan and his Iranian counterpart Abbas Araghchi discussed efforts to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and preserve the cease-fire in a phone call Monday, Turkish diplomatic sources said.
The two ministers reviewed the latest developments in ongoing negotiations concerning the reopening of the strategic waterway and the continuation of the cease-fire, according to the sources.
The two top diplomats spoke amid ongoing tensions in the region, with suspected Iranian drones targeting Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) Prime Minister Masrour Barzani’s office in Irbil on Monday.
Meanwhile, Fidan also held separate phone calls with Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) President Nechirvan Barzani and KRG Prime Minister Masrour Barzani on Monday, Foreign Ministry sources said. The talks focused on the latest developments in the region, the sources added.
President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan congratulated newly appointed British Prime Minister Andy Burnham during a phone call Monday, as the two leaders pledged to deepen the strategic partnership between Türkiye and the United Kingdom, particularly in defense, security, trade and investment.
Erdoğan and Burnham discussed bilateral relations as well as regional and global developments, according to a statement on the call.
Erdoğan congratulated Burnham on assuming his new post and expressed confidence that relations between Ankara and London would reach new heights in the coming period.
The president highlighted the significant progress Türkiye and the U.K. have made in cooperation across a broad range of areas, particularly in the defense industry.
He also underscored the importance of the Strategic Partnership Framework Document and the Security and Defense Partnership Document signed by the two countries, describing them as key instruments for strengthening bilateral cooperation.
Erdoğan said Ankara and London would continue working together to increase bilateral trade volume and achieve their shared objectives in investment, while building on the growing strategic partnership between the two NATO allies.
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