Economy
China hits 2025 growth target of 5% despite slowdown in Q4
China’s economy expanded at a 5% annual pace in 2025, meeting the government’s target on the back of strong exports despite U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariffs.
However, gross domestic product (GDP) growth slowed to a 4.5% rate in the last quarter of the year, the government said Monday.
That was the slowest quarterly growth since late 2022, when China was beginning to loosen stringent COVID-19 pandemic restrictions. The economy, the world’s second largest, grew at a 4.8% annual pace in the previous quarter.
China’s leaders have been trying to spur faster growth. Since its property sector crash in 2021, Beijing has guided resources toward the industrial complex rather than consumers to meet ambitious growth targets, creating what is seen as production overcapacity and forcing factories to look for buyers abroad.
As expected, annual growth last year was in line with the government’s official target for an expansion of “around 5%.”
In quarterly terms, the economy grew 1.2% in October to December.
Strong exports helped to compensate for weak consumer spending and business investment, contributing to a record trade surplus of $1.2 trillion, 20% higher than in 2024 and equivalent to the size of a top 20 economy, such as Saudi Arabia.
Chinese exports to the U.S. suffered after President Donald Trump returned to office early last year and began raising tariffs. But that decline was offset by shipments to the rest of the world. Soaring imports of Chinese goods are leading some other governments to take action to protect local industries, in some cases raising import duties.
“We’re doing well in Europe and Latin America and we don’t need that market,” Reuters quoted Dave Fong, who co-owns three factories in southern China making everything from school bags to climbing gear and industrial machinery, as saying. About 15% of his orders used to come from the U.S., but that’s now down to a trickle.
Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping agreed to extend a truce in their bruising tariff war, also helping to alleviate pressure on China’s exports. But China’s exports to the U.S. still fell 20% last year.
“The key question is how long this engine of growth can remain the primary driver,” Lynn Song, chief economist for Greater China at Dutch bank ING, wrote in a recent note. “Should more economies also start ramping up tariffs on China, as Mexico has done and the EU has threatened to do, eventually, a tighter squeeze will be seen.”
Domestic demand seen as priority
But the success of China’s export-oriented manufacturers contrasts with persistent weakness in the domestic-focused parts of the economy. Monday’s data underscored that divergence: industrial output rose 5.9% in 2025, outpacing retail sales’ 3.7% growth, while property investment slumped by 17.2%.
And unless Beijing can redirect resources toward consumers and lift the sectors depending on Chinese spending at home, future economic growth risks slowing sharply, analysts say. While China is expected to target a roughly 5% pace again this year, a Reuters poll predicted 2026 growth at 4.5%.
Relying on exports for growth in the longer run is hardly an option. If China’s trade surplus were to grow every year at the same rate it did in 2025, it would match the size of France’s roughly $3 trillion economy in 2030 and Germany’s $5 trillion output in 2033, Reuters calculations show.
China’s leaders have repeatedly highlighted boosting domestic demand as a policy focus, but their efforts have so far been limited. A trade-in program for drivers to replace older cars with more energy-efficient models, for example, has been losing steam in recent months.
“Stabilization, not necessarily recovery, of the domestic property market is key to revive public confidence and, hence, household consumption and private investment growth,” said Chi Lo, senior market strategist for Asia Pacific at BNP Paribas Asset Management.
China has also provided trade-in subsidies for home appliances such as refrigerators, washing machines and TVs. While major consumer stimulus policies in 2025 – including such subsidies – are set to continue in 2026, they may be scaled back, Weiheng Chen, global investment strategist at J.P. Morgan Private Bank, said in a recent note.
Meanwhile, investments in artificial intelligence and other advanced technologies remain a key priority for China’s ruling Communist Party as it moves to boost self-reliance and rival the U.S.
China’s economic development in 2025 was “hard-won,” said Kang Yi, the NBS head, on Monday, acknowledging the economy faces problems and challenges, including strong supply and weak demand.
Türkiye is seeking to meet high global expectations as it prepares to host COP31, with Environment, Urbanization and Climate Change Minister Murat Kurum saying Ankara is determined to steer this year’s U.N. climate summit toward concrete, results-driven outcomes through dialogue, consensus and coordinated international action.
Speaking at a press conference in Istanbul alongside Simon Stiell, the executive secretary of U.N. Climate Change, Kurum, who is set to chair COP31, described Türkiye as the “natural center” of the global fight against climate change. Andre Correa do Lago, president of COP30, also attended the briefing.
Fully known as the 2026 United Nations Climate Change Conference, or Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), the event is set to take place from Nov. 9 to Nov. 20 in Türkiye’s coastal city of Antalya.
Türkiye, in partnership with Australia, secured a bid to host the summit at the last climate talks in Brazil’s Belem.
As a first-time host and current president of the event, Türkiye will also organize a two-day World Leaders’ Summit. It will also be responsible for preparing official communications for the COP31 conference, overseeing operational and logistical arrangements, and appointing the U.N. High-Level Climate Champion, among other duties.
Australia, on the other hand, is assigned to “leading the negotiations agenda.” Moreover, building on the efforts of the COP30 Brazilian Presidency, Türkiye and Australia will work together, and with Pacific island countries, to strengthen and elevate the action agenda.
Speaking on Thursday, Kurum said they aim to carry out the COP31 process with a results-oriented approach. “We truly want COP31 to be successful,” he stressed.
He started his speech by noting that COP meetings “are very critical and valuable,” as “we are experiencing the devastating effects of the climate crisis more severely by each passing day.”
High expectations
“As Türkiye and Australia, we will work as one body with an understanding based on consultation and cooperation. We are all aware that the world’s expectations from COP31 are high,” he said.
“Our responsibility is to read these expectations correctly, to build trust among the parties and to produce results.”
“There is something we always say. We do not see COP31 merely as a conference, and no one should see it that way,” he maintained.
According to Kurum, Türkiye’s approach to COP31 is “clear.”
“We will not be a single voice but will engage in dialogue, we will act not with division but with consensus, and we will prefer action, not stagnation, in order to achieve results,” he said.
Emphasizing the understanding of responsibility that draws from the common memory of civilizations and reminds humanity of its ancient relationship with nature, the minister said they are approaching the talks with the idea and understanding that “they would hear, make heard and encourage everyone’s voice.”
Moreover, he described that climate change is no longer just an environmental crisis but instead “an existential issue,” which he said is affecting every aspect of human life, from trade and transportation to industry, food, energy and education.
At the same time, he suggested they would “respect countries’ development priorities,” while also pointing to the issue of financing, which is “of great importance in terms of advancing implementation.”
“Again, our local governments, our private sector, financial institutions and non-governmental organizations must continue to be the main actors of this process,” he further said.
Similarly, he underscored the significance of the Zero Waste Movement carried out under the auspices of first lady Emine Erdoğan. The initiative “has shown the entire world that climate action does not have to remain at the level of rhetoric, but can be carried into a results-oriented transformation framework,” according to Kurum.
Rebuilding trust in multilateralism
Emphasizing that as the COP31 presidency, they are determined to rebuild trust in multilateralism with “a strong vision focused on producing results,” the minister also drew attention to the nature and standing “with humanity.”
“At a time when climate change is sweeping across the entire world, Türkiye stands with humanity,” he proclaimed.
“The world is our common home, and we have nowhere else to go, no other home, no other shelter. With this awareness, we say that Türkiye is the natural center of the struggle to be waged against the global climate crisis,” he said.
Also expressing that Türkiye will be “a bridge” bringing together the north and the south, the east and the west, developed economies and developing societies, Kurum went on to say that “Türkiye is a country that has assumed the leadership of global climate justice, has proven and earned this claim by standing on the right side of humanity at all critical moments in history.”
“The future will take shape here, in Anatolia. A road map for a livable future for all humanity will be presented from here,” he added.
“We cannot stop, because those beautiful people on the Pacific islands that face the risk of being submerged are waiting for us.”
Climate action, investment
Stiell, for his part, said that one thing “is clear,” as he suggested that COP31 in Antalya will take place in extraordinary times, the times he described as “a new world disorder.”
“This is a period of instability and insecurity. Of strong arms and trade wars. The very concept of international cooperation is under attack. These challenges are real and serious,” he said.
“But climate action can deliver stability in an unstable world.”
“In the face of the current chaos, we can, and must, drive forward a new era of international climate cooperation,” he urged, referring to previous action and decisions and suggesting that “nations can deliver change on a major scale when they stand together.”
Stiell, in particular, addressed the investments in renewable energy. He cited that in the decade since the Paris Agreement, “clean energy investment is up tenfold.”
He said that in 2025, despite all the economic uncertainty and political headwinds, the global transition kept surging forward as the clean energy investment “kept growing strongly, and was more than double that of fossil fuels.”
“Renewables overtook coal as the world’s top electricity source,” he added.
“This is an era to speed up and scale up,” he also said.
“Climate action is indisputably in every nation’s self-interest.”
Türkiye’s current account balance registered a deficit of $7.25 billion (TL 317.11 billion) in December, lifting the annual gap to $25.2 billion, mainly driven by a foreign trade gap, official data showed on Friday.
Vice President Cevdet Yılmaz and Treasury and Finance Minister Mehmet Şimşek said the balance still maintained sustainable levels despite challenging global conditions.
The shortfall was more than double the deficit in 2024 and up from a gap of $4 billion in November, according to the Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye (CBRT).
The deficit in December marked the highest level in eight months. Surveys had estimated a gap of around $5.2 billion in December and about $24 billion in 2025 as a whole.
Yılmaz said the 2025 shortfall was consistent with the government’s Medium-Term Program (MTP) forecasts.
“Our macrofinancial stability continues to strengthen with the current account deficit remaining at sustainable levels, the decreasing country risk premium, and the increasing sovereign credit rating outlook,” he wrote on the social media platform X.
The goods deficit, which constitutes a major part of the current account balance, amounted to $69.7 billion last year, while services recorded a net surplus of $63.5 billion.
The primary and secondary income realized a net deficit of $18.5 billion and $528 million, respectively, the CBRT data showed.
On a monthly basis, the balance excluding gold and energy registered a deficit of $691 million in December.
The foreign trade posted a deficit of $7.44 billion, while services saw a surplus of $2.65 billion, with net travel income at $2.53 billion under this item.
Net outflows from direct investment amounted to $465 million, while portfolio investments posted a net inflow of $73 million. Official reserves decreased by $4.13 billion.
For the end of 2025, the government had revised down its current account deficit-to-GDP ratio expectation to 1.4%.
Şimşek said the annual deficit was expected to have amounted to 1.6% of gross domestic product in 2025. The gap had reached 5% of GDP in mid-2023, before declining to 0.8% in 2024.
Excluding gold, the balance posted an average deficit of 3% of GDP in the 2003-2023 period, Şimşek said X. He recalled a surplus of 0.2% in 2024 and said a limited deficit of around 0.3% was projected for 2025.
For 2026, Şimşek said the moderate course of energy prices, an improving outlook among main trading partners, and a supportive euro/dollar parity are expected to contribute positively to current account targets.
“We continue to implement structural steps that will make our gains in the current account balance permanent,” he said.
Yılmaz said the current account deficit is expected to maintain its “moderate” course throughout 2026 and “will continue to support the disinflation process, which we are reinforcing through structural reforms.”
One of the world’s largest logistics companies, DP World, announced on Friday a new chairperson, replacing the outgoing head following mounting pressure over his alleged ties to Jeffrey Epstein.
The announcement by the government’s Dubai Media Office did not specifically name Sultan Ahmed bin Sulayem. However, it said that Essa Kazim was named DP World’s chairperson and Yuvraj Narayan was named group CEO.
Those were positions held by bin Sulayem, one of the Middle East’s most prominent business figures. He’s among the highest-profile executives to face scrutiny and be removed from senior roles following the recent release of the Epstein files.
DP World has long been a pillar of the economy of the Middle Eastern city. It’s a logistics giant that runs the Jebel Ali port in Dubai and operates terminals in other ports around the world.
The announcement comes a day after financial groups in Canada and the United Kingdom said they’ve paused future ventures with DP World after newly released emails showed a yearslong friendship between bin Sulayem and Epstein.
The emails – some referencing sexual massages and escorts – surfaced in the cache of Epstein-related documents recently released by the U.S. Department of Justice.
Epstein killed himself in jail in 2019 after he was charged with sex trafficking. The emails do not appear to implicate bin Sulayem in Epstein’s alleged crimes. DP World did not respond to request for comment.
Bin Sulayem previously had a larger role as chair of the Dubai World conglomerate, which at the time included the property developer Nakheel. That company was behind the creation of human-made islands in the shape of palm trees and a map of the world that helped cement Dubai’s status as an up-and-coming global city.
The state-run WAM news agency also reported that Dubai’s ruler, Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum, named a new head of the city-state’s Ports Customs and Free Zone Corporation. That also was a position held by bin Sulayem.
The topics in the emails between Epstein and bin Sulayem range widely, including President Donald Trump, sex and theology.
In one email from 2013, Epstein wrote to bin Sulayem that “you are one of my most trusted friends in very sense of the word, you have never let me down.”
In response, bin Sulayem said, “Thank you my friend I am off the sample a fresh 100% female Russian at my yacht.”
That same year, bin Sulayem sent Epstein an email showing a menu for a massage business which included sexual offerings. Two years later, bin Sulayem texted Epstein a link to a porn site, and, in 2017, Epstein sent bin Sulayem a link to an escort website.
Epstein e-mailed with bin Sulayem about Steve Bannon, the Trump acolyte, in 2018, saying “you will like him.” In another exchange, bin Sulayem asked Epstein about an event where it appeared Trump would be in attendance.
Foreign direct investment (FDI) into Türkiye increased by 12.2% year-over-year in 2025 despite a relatively stagnant global investment climate, official data showed on Friday.
The FDI inflow reached $13.1 billion (TL 572.99 billion) last year, according to data released by the Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye (CBRT), bucking the broader trend seen in many developing economies.
Among the top sources of FDI into Türkiye in 2025, the Netherlands ranked first with $2.86 billion, followed by Luxembourg with $1.16 billion and Kazakhstan with nearly $1.14 billion.
Other major investors included Germany, the United States, France, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Switzerland, the United Kingdom and Ireland.
On a sectoral basis, the data pointed to a concentration of investment in production, trade and technology-oriented activities.
Wholesale and retail trade attracted the largest share of last year’s FDI, driven mainly by investments in e-commerce platforms. The sector accounted for 32% of total inflows, or $3.05 billion.
Manufacturing followed closely with a 31% share, totaling just over $3 billion, while the information and communications sector ranked third with a 14% share, or $1.31 billion.
According to the U.N. Trade and Development (UNCTAD) Global Investment Trends Monitor, global FDI flows showed only a cautious recovery in 2025. While inflows to developed economies and financial centers increased, investment into developing countries declined by about 2%.
Against this backdrop, Türkiye stood out with double-digit growth, outperforming global peers.
Türkiye’s performance is attributed to reforms aimed at improving the investment climate, including the launch of projects under the HIT-30 program, updates to the incentive system, the implementation of climate legislation and steps to advance digitalization.
Ahmet Burak Dağlıoğlu, head of the Investment and Finance Office of the Presidency of Türkiye, said Türkiye’s performance reflected its structural advantages and reform agenda at a time when global investment decisions remained cautious.
“Investments by global technology brands and funding directed to technology startups stood out in 2025. Investments in manufacturing and logistics also strengthened Türkiye’s position in global supply chains,” Dağlıoğlu said in a statement.
He added that Türkiye’s production capacity, skilled workforce and strategic location continue to enhance its appeal as “a global connectivity hub” for international investors.
Türkiye and the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (TRNC) will continue to advance cooperation and finalize a new economic agreement by the end of March, Vice President Cevdet Yılmaz said on Thursday.
Yılmaz’s remarks came after meeting TRNC Prime Minister Ünal Üstel in Ankara. The vice president described the talks as productive and said work is underway on a new economic and financial cooperation framework.
“Our aim is clear. We want to carry the TRNC toward a more prosperous and stronger future,” Yılmaz said.
He stressed that ties between Türkiye and the TRNC are “not ordinary relations between two countries,” adding that Türkiye, as a guarantor state, “will continue to stand by the TRNC.”
Yılmaz said the current cooperation protocol has been implemented effectively and that both sides aim to complete negotiations on a new agreement by late March.
The Mediterranean island of Cyprus was divided in 1974 after a Greek Cypriot coup aimed at Greece’s annexation. This led to Türkiye’s military intervention as a guarantor power to protect Turkish Cypriots from persecution and violence.
The TRNC was founded in 1983. The country is fully recognized only by Türkiye, which does not recognize the Greek Cypriot administration in the south.
The island has seen an on-and-off peace process in recent years, including a failed 2017 initiative in Crans-Montana, Switzerland, under the auspices of the guarantor countries.
The Greek Cypriot administration joined the European Union in 2004, the same year that the Greek side rejected a United Nations plan to resolve the dispute in a referendum.
The Turkish side strictly adheres to a two-state solution based on sovereign equality. The Greek Cypriots are seeking a federal solution.
Yılmaz said any solution must be based on “the realities of the island,” including “two states and two peoples” and sovereign equality.
“Türkiye and the TRNC will continue on their path in a spirit of cooperation,” he said. “No matter what traps are set in our region, the realities of the region will render them ineffective.”
Speaking after the meeting, the TRNC’s Üstel also addressed recent regional developments, referring to a defense protocol signed between Greece, Israel and the Greek Cypriot administration.
Üstel said the three had entered what he described as an arms race following the signing of the defense agreement and accused them of showcasing new defense acquisitions in the media.
He said the Turkish Cypriots are “not alone,” stressing that Türkiye stands by the TRNC as its motherland.
“Whatever they do, we have no doubt that when the time comes, we will respond in the same manner and with the same determination,” Üstel said.
Üstel also reiterated that there are two peoples and two states on the island and said any solution must reflect this reality.
Türkiye is the “natural center” of the fight against the global climate crisis, Environment, Urbanization and Climate Change Minister and COP31 President Murat Kurum said on Thursday, underscoring that the country’s approach to the climate conference is “clear” and is that of dialogue, consensus and action.
Speaking alongside Simon Stiell, the executive secretary of U.N. Climate Change, at a press conference in Istanbul, Kurum evaluated the aspirations for the upcoming 31st Conference of the Parties (COP31), a high-level global climate summit to be held in Türkiye’s coastal city of Antalya.
COP30 President Andre Correa do Lago was also present at the press conference.
Fully known as the 2026 United Nations Climate Change Conference, or Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), the event is set to take place from Nov. 9 to Nov. 20.
Türkiye, in partnership with Australia, secured a bid to host the summit at the last climate talks in Brazil’s Belem.
As a first-time host and current president of the event, Türkiye will also organize a two-day World Leaders’ Summit. It will also be responsible for preparing official communications for the COP31 conference, overseeing operational and logistical arrangements, and appointing the U.N. High-Level Climate Champion, among other duties.
Australia, on the other hand, is assigned to “leading the negotiations agenda.” Moreover, building on the efforts of the COP30 Brazilian Presidency, Türkiye and Australia will work together, and with Pacific island countries, to strengthen and elevate the action agenda.
Speaking on Thursday, Kurum said they aim to carry out the COP31 process with a results-oriented approach. “We truly want COP31 to be successful,” he stressed.
He started his speech by noting that COP meetings “are very critical and valuable,” as “we are experiencing the devastating effects of the climate crisis more severely by each passing day.”
High expectations
“As Türkiye and Australia, we will work as one body with an understanding based on consultation and cooperation. We are all aware that the world’s expectations from COP31 are high,” he said.
“Our responsibility is to read these expectations correctly, to build trust among the parties and to produce results.”
“There is something we always say. We do not see COP31 merely as a conference, and no one should see it that way,” he maintained.
According to Kurum, Türkiye’s approach to COP31 is “clear.”
“We will not be a single voice but will engage in dialogue, we will act not with division but with consensus, and we will prefer action, not stagnation, in order to achieve results,” he said.
Emphasizing the understanding of responsibility that draws from the common memory of civilizations and reminds humanity of its ancient relationship with nature, the minister said they are approaching the talks with the idea and understanding that “they would hear, make heard and encourage everyone’s voice.”
Moreover, he described that climate change is no longer just an environmental crisis but instead “an existential issue,” which he said is affecting every aspect of human life, from trade and transportation to industry, food, energy and education.
At the same time, he suggested they would “respect countries’ development priorities,” while also pointing to the issue of financing, which is “of great importance in terms of advancing implementation.”
“Again, our local governments, our private sector, financial institutions and non-governmental organizations must continue to be the main actors of this process,” he further said.
Similarly, he underscored the significance of the Zero Waste Movement carried out under the auspices of first lady Emine Erdoğan. The initiative “has shown the entire world that climate action does not have to remain at the level of rhetoric, but can be carried into a results-oriented transformation framework,” according to Kurum.
Rebuilding trust in multilateralism
Emphasizing that as the COP31 presidency, they are determined to rebuild trust in multilateralism with “a strong vision focused on producing results,” the minister also drew attention to the nature and standing “with humanity.”
“At a time when climate change is sweeping across the entire world, Türkiye stands with humanity,” he proclaimed.
“The world is our common home, and we have nowhere else to go, no other home, no other shelter. With this awareness, we say that Türkiye is the natural center of the struggle to be waged against the global climate crisis,” he said.
Also expressing that Türkiye will be “a bridge” bringing together the north and the south, the east and the west, developed economies and developing societies, Kurum went on to say that “Türkiye is a country that has assumed the leadership of global climate justice, has proven and earned this claim by standing on the right side of humanity at all critical moments in history.”
“The future will take shape here, in Anatolia. A road map for a livable future for all humanity will be presented from here,” he added.
“We cannot stop, because those beautiful people on the Pacific islands that face the risk of being submerged are waiting for us.”
Climate action, investment
Stiell, for his part, said that one thing “is clear,” as he suggested that COP31 in Antalya will take place in extraordinary times, the times he described as “a new world disorder.”
“This is a period of instability and insecurity. Of strong arms and trade wars. The very concept of international cooperation is under attack. These challenges are real and serious,” he said.
“But climate action can deliver stability in an unstable world.”
“In the face of the current chaos, we can, and must, drive forward a new era of international climate cooperation,” he urged, referring to previous action and decisions and suggesting that “nations can deliver change on a major scale when they stand together.”
Stiell, in particular, addressed the investments in renewable energy. He cited that in the decade since the Paris Agreement, “clean energy investment is up tenfold.”
He said that in 2025, despite all the economic uncertainty and political headwinds, the global transition kept surging forward as the clean energy investment “kept growing strongly, and was more than double that of fossil fuels.”
“Renewables overtook coal as the world’s top electricity source,” he added.
“This is an era to speed up and scale up,” he also said.
“Climate action is indisputably in every nation’s self-interest.”
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