Politics
Greek Cypriot EU presidency may raise tensions with Türkiye: Analysts
The Greek Cypriot administration is preparing to take over the rotating presidency of the Council of the European Union in the first half of 2026. While the development is largely symbolic, the Greek Cypriots’ agenda in Brussels could pose emerging diplomatic challenges for Türkiye, particularly regarding the long-standing Cyprus dispute. Experts warn that the Greek Cypriot presidency may undermine an emerging mutual will between Türkiye and the EU to further defense cooperation.
Speaking to Daily Sabah, professor and political scentist Ali Fuat Gökçe stated that “The Greek Cypriot administration has recently been developing policies against Türkiye and the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (TRNC) including a defense cooperation with the U.S, military exercises, the deployment of Israeli air defense systems on the island and the training of Greek Cypriot youths in Bulgaria, Poland and the Czech Republic under a so-called ‘Special Security Force’ that can be considered non-peaceful.”
Under the EU’s rotating system, member states hold the presidency for six months, coordinating legislative activity, guiding inter-institutional negotiations and representing the council in dealings with other EU bodies. Hungary took over the presidency on July 1, 2024, completing its term at the end of the year before handing the position to Poland for 2025 and Cyprus for early 2026.
Gökçe also warned that the training of young people under the label of a “Special Security Force” has naturally raised questions about whether a new EOKA-like structure is being formed, pointing to growing concerns over the Greek Cypriot administration’s intentions. He said the failure to abide by issues agreed upon during talks between TRNC President Tufan Erhürman and Greek Cypriot leader Nikos Christodoulides, coupled with the sharing of photographs taken in front of the image and weapon of EOKA founder Georgios Grivas, sends a clear political message.
“All these policies of deadlock undermine trust and will negatively affect the situation on the ground, including during the Greek Cypriot administration’s upcoming term as president of the EU Council,” he argued.
Moreover, associate professor Emete Gözügüzelli from Social Sciences University of Ankara, also noted that the Greek Cypriot administration views its preparations for the EU’s rotating presidency not merely as an administrative responsibility but as a strategic opportunity to strengthen its geopolitical position in the Eastern Mediterranean, increase diplomatic pressure on Türkiye, TRNC and reshape the international framework of the Cyprus issue in its favor.
“For the Greek side, hydrocarbon resources are not only an economic prospect but also a tool to reinforce sovereignty claims and international legitimacy, with the short-term aim of embedding its self-declared exclusive economic zone into official EU energy and security documents, a move that would marginalize Türkiye’s maritime claims and the TRNC’s rights,” she asserted.
Gözügüzelli also reminded that the Greek Cyprus also seeks to frame Türkiye’s “Blue Homeland” doctrine as destabilizing while accelerating drilling activities with companies such as ExxonMobil, ENI and Total, portraying Türkiye’s own exploration efforts in Brussels as “escalatory steps” and pressing the EU for stronger political language and, if necessary, new sanction mechanisms.
Recently, the newly re-signed maritime boundary agreement between Lebanon and the Greek Cypriot administration was criticized by the Turkish ministers and TRNC officials, asserting that the deal ignores the rights of Turkish Cypriots and exceeds the authority of the Greek Cypriot side, saying the deal risks further destabilizing the eastern Mediterranean.
On the other hand, Ali Oğuz Diriöz, an academician at TOBB University of Economics and Technology, also pointed out that “another development that should not be overlooked is the likelihood that, over the next six months, particularly Central Asian republics and several other countries may take steps to open representations in southern Cyprus or upgrade the level of diplomatic relations,” he said.
Diriöz also marked that with Greek Cypriot administration’s 2026 EU Council presidency would also elevate the Cyprus issue on the EU’s agenda.
Turkish-EU defense ties
While Türkiye has become prominent in the defense industry and strengthened the defense cooperation with European states over the past years, the objections from Greece and the Greek Cyprus have also mounted.
Regarding Türkiye and the EU defense relations, Gökçe reminded that Greece and the Greek Cypriot administration have already vetoed Türkiye’s participation in the EU’s Security Action for Europe (SAFE) defense program, and he added, “During this period, the Greek Cypriot Administration may adopt more hard-line policies aimed at altering the status quo on the island in its favor and pressing for the withdrawal of Turkish troops.”
The SAFE Program, adopted by EU leaders in May, is meant to provide competitively priced, long-term loans to accelerate urgent defense procurement.
It forms part of the European Commission’s ReArm Europe Plan/Readiness 2030, aiming to mobilize over 800 billion pounds in defense spending.
“Greece and the Greek Cypriot administration could seek to overcome the impasse by putting the Greek Cypriot administration’s potential NATO membership forward as leverage against Türkiye, a scenario that could prompt Ankara to suspend broader defense cooperation with the EU,” Gökçe continued.
Türkiye, which is a member of NATO but not the EU, is technically eligible to access EU defense industry financing and joint procurement programs as part of the bloc’s 150-billion-euro ($176-billion) SAFE initiative.
However, Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis recently reiterated that he would not approve Türkiye’s involvement in the SAFE program due to ongoing disputes in the Aegean and the casus belli dispute between Ankara and Athens.
Additionally, Gözügüzelli also remarked that the EU Council presidency of the Greek Cypriot administration is expected to create a complex period in Türkiye-EU relations using its veto power on issues including the modernization of the EU-Türkiye Customs Union, visa liberalization, cooperation in energy, transport and NATO-EU coordination with references to “provocative activities in the Eastern Mediterranean” and “violations of Cyprus’ sovereign rights.”
“The aim is to portray Türkiye as a marginal actor in the eyes of Europe, a dynamic that could push Ankara more firmly toward a NATO-centered security posture and increase the risk of its exclusion from EU defense projects,” she added.
Türkiye’s defense industry has become one of the world’s top 10 defense exporters by minimizing its dependence on foreign sources for key technologies, the head of the Presidency of Defense Industries (SSB), Haluk Görgün, stated last month.
On the other hand, Diriöz also offered that Türkiye could respond by strengthening dialogue with Central and Eastern European countries such as Hungary, Poland and Romania, which are NATO allies and share overlapping interests with Ankara in defense industry cooperation, and Türkiye could seek to coordinate positions with these countries on keeping European defense firmly anchored within NATO.
“Europe’s political center of gravity is increasingly shifting eastward from Brussels and Eastern European countries do not view Türkiye as a security risk to Europe but rather as a highly valuable ally,” Diriöz indicated.
Israel’s recent strikes on a military base in Syria’s northwestern Idlib province and the use of President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s image in an election poster by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud party bearing the slogan “They want Netanyahu to lose” are seen by experts as signs of the growing political and strategic pressure Netanyahu is facing.
“The circumstantial aspect of the issue is that, as Israel heads into an election period, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s main concern is finding a new political target,” Gökhan Çınkara, an associate professor at Necmettin Erbakan University and director of the Global and Regional Studies Center, told Daily Sabah.
“This was already evident in the campaign poster he used for the election,” he said, adding that the decline in support for Netanyahu’s Likud party could be seen as another indication of the pressure he faces.
As Israel’s Oct. 27 elections approach, political parties have stepped up their campaigning.
A new election poster displayed by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud party on a billboard in Tel Aviv features images of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan alongside Iranian leader Mojtaba Khamenei, Hezbollah Secretary-General Naim Qassem and New York Mayor Zohran Mamdani.
“They want Netanyahu to lose. Don’t let them win,” as seen in the poster.
The campaign comes amid an increase in rhetoric targeting Türkiye and President Erdoğan by Israeli politicians ahead of the Oct. 27 vote.
Çınkara also remarked that Netanyahu’s political predicament and lack of a clear policy agenda has led him to target figures such as New York Mayor Zohran Mamdani and President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan in an effort to consolidate his electoral base.
Alongside Netanyahu’s campaign move involving Erdoğan, diplomatic pressure on Tel Aviv is also mounting over the war in Gaza. On Tuesday, Jared Kushner, U.S. President Donald Trump’s son-in-law and special envoy, met Netanyahu to discuss efforts toward a cease-fire in Gaza.
The talks, which lasted about four hours, focused on obstacles to a cease-fire and arrangements for the postwar period. According to U.S. media reports, Kushner urged Netanyahu not to obstruct efforts to reach a cease-fire agreement.
Ufuk Necat Taşçı, assistant professor of International Relations at Çanakkale Onsekiz Mart University also noted that Israel entered the conflict with Iran on the basis of flawed intelligence assessments, while largely failing to achieve its main objectives.
He pointed to factors including Gadi Eisenkot’s growing political prominence and internal divisions within Netanyahu’s Likud party as signs of mounting domestic pressure.
As Kushner met Netanyahu, Trump also made remarks on Gaza, pointing to Hamas’ decision to lay down its arms.
“Israel should stop bombing Gaza,” Trump said.
Trump also stated it would not be appropriate for him to become directly involved in Israel’s Oct. 27 elections, though he said he could endorse a candidate.
Furthermore, Merve Suna Özel Özcan, associate professor and the vice chair of the International Relations Department at Kırıkkale University, said anti-Türkiye rhetoric is increasingly being used as a tool for electoral mobilization in Israel, with President Erdoğan portrayed not only as a regional rival but also as an external threat that could help Netanyahu rally support and bolster his political position.
She noted that portraying Türkiye as a potential security threat is not a new development in Israel, pointing to the Nagel Committee report, which had previously raised concerns over Ankara’s growing regional influence, particularly in Syria.
“Against this backdrop, Erdoğan’s appearance in Israeli election propaganda and the targeting of potential Turkish military capabilities in Syria should not be viewed as developments that emerged overnight,” the expert said. “Rather, they are the political and military manifestations of a threat narrative that has been developing for some time.”
Recently, Haaretz, an Israeli newspaper known for its criticism of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government, published an analysis arguing that Netanyahu has portrayed Türkiye as a major threat in an apparent effort to gain an electoral advantage while also examining Ankara’s bid to acquire F-35 fighter jets from the United States.
The analysis recalled that President Erdoğan and U.S. President Trump projected a warm rapport during the NATO summit in Ankara and that Washington signaled openness to a potential F-35 sale to Türkiye. It said those developments have been met with growing concern within both the Israeli government and the Israeli public, stating: “The election is approaching, and the ‘Mr. Security’ campaign has begun. In a calculated move, Benjamin Netanyahu last week launched a blitz of interviews, phone calls and statements in an attempt to block the sale of F-35 jets to Türkiye.”
Özcan offered that the changing regional environment following the Mecca Agreement should also be taken into consideration, while cautioning against portraying the agreement as an anti-Israel alliance.
All three countries support a two-state solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict based on the 1967 borders, the expert noted.
“From Israel’s perspective, therefore, the issue is not simply the emergence of another military mechanism, but the possibility that regional powers are beginning to build their own security and stability architecture,” she emphasized.
In an interview with the UAE-based The National, Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan last month discussed tensions between Türkiye and Israel, as well as the Israeli government’s regional policies.
Fidan said there was no reason for a direct confrontation between Türkiye and Israel, arguing that Netanyahu has increasingly resorted to hostile rhetoric as he seeks a new political adversary ahead of the country’s upcoming elections.
Aylin Ünver Noi, professor of International Relations and Vice Rector of Beykoz University, indicated that “This should be viewed as an attempt to group together figures who oppose Israel’s regional policies, particularly its policies toward Hamas and the Palestinians.”
Whether the strategy will prove effective remains uncertain, she said, but the choice of figures featured in the campaign is significant because they have been associated with opposition to Israeli policies on the Palestinian issue.
“Türkiye and, in this context, the New York mayor should also be assessed from this perspective,” the expert added.
New York Mayor Zohran Mamdani said last month that the city cannot enforce the international arrest warrant for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, but called on the federal government to act.
In the video, Mamdani described the Israeli prime minister as a “war criminal” and said he is not welcome in New York City.
“It is clear that we do not have the independent legal authority to enforce this warrant,” he said in a video posted on X. “The federal government, however, does and I call on them to join the ICC and execute this warrant,” he added, referring to the International Criminal Court.
Noi also described Türkiye’s broader foreign policy as focused on promoting regional and international stability and peace, pointing to Ankara’s diplomatic engagement in several conflict zones stretching from the Balkans and the South Caucasus to conflicts in Africa.
Israel, aggression in Syria
Israel has been carrying out incursions into Syrian territory since the December 2024 since the overthrow of the ousted Bashar Assad regime, including sending troops into a U.N.-patrolled buffer zone that separated Israeli and Syrian forces in the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights since 1974.
Israel, on Tuesday, carried out airstrikes on the Abu al-Duhur Military Air Base in Syria’s northwestern Idlib province, drawing attention from both Türkiye and regional countries.
Özcan stated that Israel’s latest strike in Syria should also be assessed within this broader context, arguing that the targeting of Abu al-Duhur Air Base could reflect Israeli concerns over Türkiye’s potential future military capabilities in the country.
“Although the base has remained largely inactive for some time, its potential future use by Türkiye suggests that Israel is concerned not only about existing threats but also about capabilities that could emerge in the future,” she said.
In a statement issued Aug. 18, the Foreign Ministry of Türkiye condemned the Israeli forces that carried out airstrikes on the military facility, located in the Idlib countryside, in the early hours of Tuesday.
“We strongly condemn the airstrikes carried out by Israel early this morning against the Abu al-Duhur Military Air Base in the countryside of Syria’s Idlib,” the ministry said.
The ministry criticized Israel for “recklessly” continuing attacks targeting Syria’s infrastructure and capabilities while violating the country’s territorial integrity and unity.
Ankara also urged the international community to take a firmer stance against Israel’s increasingly aggressive actions in Syria.
Çınkara also added that another key issue for Israel since the Oct. 7 attacks has been how to restore its eroded deterrence.
“Against this backdrop, Israel tends to perceive virtually any military activity in the region as a potential threat,” he underlined. “This has become one of the main factors driving Israel’s increasingly aggressive military posture in places such as Lebanon and Syria.”
Meanwhile, Presidential Communications Director Burhanettin Duran also strongly condemned the Israeli airstrike on the Abu al-Duhur Military Air Base.
“These attacks targeting Syria’s sovereignty, territorial integrity and infrastructure are a continuation of a reckless policy of aggression that threatens regional peace and stability,” Duran noted.
He said that Türkiye, under the leadership of President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, would continue to support Syria’s sovereignty and territorial integrity and oppose any attempt that threatens peace and stability in the region.
“Israel does not want a strong, unitary state on its border because it perceives such a state as a potential security threat,” Noi argued.
She also said the latest Israeli strikes should also be assessed against efforts to rehabilitate Syrian military infrastructure and Türkiye’s close relations with the new Syrian authorities.
“Türkiye has a fundamentally different approach,” Noi stressed. “Ankara wants to see a strong, unitary Syrian state and seeks to ensure its own security through stable relations with its neighbors.”
Türkiye’s broader regional policy is based on having stable and capable states along its borders and developing cooperative relations with them, according to her.
U.S. special envoy for Syria Tom Barrack said Thursday that Washington is working to establish a deconfliction mechanism among Israel, Türkiye and Syria following an Israeli strike on a Syrian air base near the Turkish border.
Referring to the possibility of a Turkish military response, Barrack said Türkiye, after observing aircraft heading toward its territory, may have “understandably prepared to respond.”
Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan held separate phone calls Tuesday with Qatari Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani and Syrian Foreign Minister Asaad Hassan al-Shaibani, diplomatic sources said.
Fidan and his Qatari counterpart discussed the situation in the Strait of Hormuz, according to the sources.
In a separate call with al-Shaibani, Fidan discussed the latest developments in the region.
The calls came amid heightened attention on regional developments and the situation surrounding the strategically important Strait of Hormuz.
Fidan met with his Qatari counterpart, Qatar’s Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani, on July 19, a few days after President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s visit to the country to extend condolences for the late emir Sheikh Hamad bin Khalifa Al Thani.
Türkiye and Qatar have steadily deepened their strategic partnership since establishing it in 2014 through high-level exchanges and bilateral agreements spanning a wide range of fields.
On the other hand, Fidan hosted his Syrian counterpart, Asaad Hassan al-Shaibani, in Ankara on July 6 as the two neighboring countries continue to deepen relations following the collapse of the Baathist regime in 2024.
Regarding the U.S.-Israel-Iran war, Syria’s top diplomat stressed that the fighting in the region should come to an end as soon as possible. He noted that the regional tensions were also affecting Syria and said Damascus condemned Iran’s attacks against the Gulf countries.
Civil society groups supporting Palestinians will hold simultaneous events in more than 17 countries on Wednesday to call for greater humanitarian access to Gaza as the world marks World Humanitarian Day.
The global initiative, called the “Voice of Humanity,” will take place across five continents on Aug. 19, according to Osman Nuri Kabaktepe, head of the Palestine Support Platform, one of the organizations participating in the campaign.
Speaking at a news conference in Istanbul, Kabaktepe called on the public to support the initiative, saying access to food, medicine, shelter and healthcare should be regarded as a fundamental right rather than a concession.
“We are talking about a right, not a favor,” Kabaktepe noted, arguing that restrictions on humanitarian assistance have left civilians in Gaza struggling to obtain essential supplies.
Kabaktepe said tens of thousands of civilians have been killed during Israel’s military campaign in Gaza and that children, women, patients and other vulnerable people continue to face difficulties accessing food and medical supplies.
He also accused Israel of failing to comply with provisions on humanitarian assistance under a cease-fire agreement, saying the arrangement envisaged the entry of at least 600 aid trucks into Gaza each day.
Kabaktepe called for the establishment of a humanitarian corridor and urged international organizations and institutions to work to ensure the delivery of aid into the Palestinian enclave.
As part of Wednesday’s campaign, supporters in Istanbul are expected to gather at Üsküdar Square at 6:30 p.m. local time.
Organizers will call for humanitarian assistance to be kept separate from political negotiations and for restrictions on aid deliveries to Gaza to be lifted.
“Humanitarian aid cannot be a matter of negotiation,” Kabaktepe underlined.
He urged international organizations and governments to increase efforts to secure humanitarian access to Gaza.
World Humanitarian Day is observed annually on Aug. 19 to recognize humanitarian workers and people affected by crises around the world.
Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan and his Iranian counterpart Abbas Araghchi discussed efforts to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and preserve the cease-fire in a phone call Monday, Turkish diplomatic sources said.
The two ministers reviewed the latest developments in ongoing negotiations concerning the reopening of the strategic waterway and the continuation of the cease-fire, according to the sources.
The two top diplomats spoke amid ongoing tensions in the region, with suspected Iranian drones targeting Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) Prime Minister Masrour Barzani’s office in Irbil on Monday.
Meanwhile, Fidan also held separate phone calls with Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) President Nechirvan Barzani and KRG Prime Minister Masrour Barzani on Monday, Foreign Ministry sources said. The talks focused on the latest developments in the region, the sources added.
President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan congratulated newly appointed British Prime Minister Andy Burnham during a phone call Monday, as the two leaders pledged to deepen the strategic partnership between Türkiye and the United Kingdom, particularly in defense, security, trade and investment.
Erdoğan and Burnham discussed bilateral relations as well as regional and global developments, according to a statement on the call.
Erdoğan congratulated Burnham on assuming his new post and expressed confidence that relations between Ankara and London would reach new heights in the coming period.
The president highlighted the significant progress Türkiye and the U.K. have made in cooperation across a broad range of areas, particularly in the defense industry.
He also underscored the importance of the Strategic Partnership Framework Document and the Security and Defense Partnership Document signed by the two countries, describing them as key instruments for strengthening bilateral cooperation.
Erdoğan said Ankara and London would continue working together to increase bilateral trade volume and achieve their shared objectives in investment, while building on the growing strategic partnership between the two NATO allies.
President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and U.S. President Donald Trump discussed Türkiye-U.S. ties and pressing regional and global developments in a phone call, with the Turkish leader stressing the need to maximize diplomatic efforts to ease tensions between Washington and Tehran.
Erdoğan told Trump that Türkiye hoped negotiations between Iran and the United States would continue, emphasizing that Ankara would maintain its support for efforts aimed at securing peace, according to a statement from the Presidential Communications Directorate.
The president also highlighted the joint defense agreement signed by Türkiye, Pakistan and Saudi Arabia, saying the pact demonstrated a strong commitment to ensuring regional stability and security.
Turning to Gaza, Erdoğan warned that Israeli actions targeting Palestinians had intensified at a time when efforts were focused on advancing to the second phase of the Gaza peace process.
He reiterated that Türkiye would continue supporting steps toward lasting peace in the region as well as efforts to rebuild the war-ravaged Gaza Strip.
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