Türkiye is establishing itself as a premier haven for Russian real estate investors, boasting robust infrastructure, advanced transport networks and a high quality of life, according to officials and executives.

Tanju Bilgiç, the Turkish ambassador to Moscow, said recent developments in the Gulf have made Türkiye an even stronger alternative investment hub thanks to its stability during turbulent times worldwide.

“Türkiye maintains its appeal for Russian nationals due to its climate, strong transportation network, reliable and transparent land registry system, advanced infrastructure, modern cities, high rental yield potential and cultural affinity,” he said.

Bilgiç was speaking during a recent webinar held by the Türkiye-Russia Business Council of the Foreign Economic Relations Board (DEIK).

He noted that Russians are the top foreign buyers of residential properties in Türkiye, adding that Turkish TV series have played a role in boosting this interest.

The ambassador said Russian investors’ interest could be further increased if Türkiye’s investment opportunities were promoted more strongly in the Russian market.

Izzet Ekmekçibaşı, chair of the Türkiye-Russia Business Council of DEIK, said geopolitical tensions around the Strait of Hormuz have intensified the need for stable investment environments, prompting investors to turn their attention to Türkiye’s real estate market.

Neşecan Çekici, chair of the Real Estate Investors’ Association (GYODER), said investors are more focused on trust and legal certainty than on investment returns, noting that bilateral cooperation between Türkiye and Russia should expand to include sectors such as logistics, health care, data centers and urban renewal.

Zafer Baysal, a board member of both the Housing Developers’ and Investors’ Association (KONUTDER) and GYODER, said foreign investors are no longer making investment decisions primarily to obtain citizenship. Instead, they are seeking refuge from global uncertainty and prioritizing prime locations, liquidity, and long-term security.

Baysal said Türkiye serves as a critical gateway to the Mediterranean while bridging Asia and Europe, offering unique investment opportunities and a high standard of living.

Ekaterina Avdeeva, chair of the Real Estate Investments Commission at the Russian Chamber of Commerce, said Russian investor interest in Türkiye has surged 20% since the beginning of the year.

Avdeeva said Russian investors continue to favor destinations such as Istanbul, Antalya, Mersin, and Bodrum, reflecting sustained demand for both major cities and tourist destinations.

She noted that modern investors prioritize long-term capital security and transparency over price advantages.

She added that Türkiye meets foreign investors’ expectations through its legal framework, investment environment and transportation infrastructure, making it an attractive destination amid global market volatility.

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Fitch Ratings said on Tuesday Türkiye’s economy has remained resilient despite heightened geopolitical uncertainty, with sustained improvements in international reserves remaining a key factor for any future sovereign credit rating upgrade.

The comments from Erich Arispe Morales, senior director at Fitch Ratings, came after the agency last Friday affirmed Türkiye’s long-term foreign currency sovereign rating at “BB-” with a stable outlook.

Morales said Fitch’s latest assessment was consistent with an unscheduled review published in April amid the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran, which prompted the agency to reassess risks facing the Turkish economy.

Supply shocks mainly due to the fallout from the Iran war had pushed Türkiye’s headline inflation higher in April and May, but June signaled the return of a downward trend.

While Türkiye’s international reserves declined during the conflict, they have since partially recovered, though they remain below pre-war levels.

“International reserves have recovered, but they are still below their pre-war levels. We have also seen inflationary pressures ease somewhat,” Morales told Anadolu Agency (AA), according to the Turkish transcript of his remarks.

“However, geopolitical uncertainty remains elevated, and this could have implications not only for Türkiye but for other emerging markets through inflation and external balances,” he added.

Morales said the conflict continued to create significant political uncertainty across the region but noted that Türkiye’s policy framework had helped preserve gains in inflation expectations despite higher uncertainty and weaker reserves.

Morales also pointed to stable domestic confidence in the Turkish lira, saying positive dollarization remained broadly steady at around 38%.

“The message from the central bank and the economic authorities is that they remain committed to the program aimed at bringing inflation down sustainably. That is the important point,” he said.

“Despite ongoing global uncertainty, we think the Turkish economy is relatively resilient. Over the longer term, Türkiye has demonstrated resilience to macroeconomic imbalances compared with many other economies.”

Reserves remain key to rating outlook

Morales said inflation remained high but continued to show signs of easing, adding that bringing it down from above 30% would take time and require sustained policy credibility.

Annual inflation eased to 32.1% last month from 32.6% in May. The decline had stalled following a sharp rise in energy prices caused by the war launched by the U.S. and Israel against Iran on Feb. 28.

On a monthly basis, consumer prices rose 0.99% in June, slowing from 1.7% in May.

The Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye (CBRT) raised its end-2026 inflation forecast to 24% from 16% in its quarterly inflation report published in mid-May, saying the short-term inflationary effects of the Iran war would remain “pronounced.”

The bank projects inflation falling to 15% at the end of 2027 and 9% at the end of 2028.

Morales said Türkiye’s healthy banking sector, continued access to external financing and sufficiently high real interest rates had supported demand for lira-denominated assets and helped limit dollarization.

“Access to financing resulting from policy adjustments and the strength of the banking sector are among the factors that provide Türkiye with resilience against external shocks,” he said.

Morales said Fitch would continue to closely monitor Türkiye’s international reserves, describing durable reserve accumulation as a critical condition for a potential sovereign rating upgrade.

“Given Türkiye’s relatively high external financing needs, it is very important that improvements in reserves prove to be lasting,” he said. “We expect Türkiye’s reserves to be somewhat higher by the end of the year than current levels, but the sustainability of this improvement will be the decisive factor.”

He added that maintaining tight macroeconomic policies capable of delivering a sustained decline in inflation and reducing balance-of-payments risks would also be necessary to support a future upgrade.

“I think this is essential for maintaining confidence in an environment where external shocks and political uncertainties may arise,” he noted.

Commenting on monetary policy, Morales said Türkiye’s central bank had sought to provide markets with a clear framework for assessing risks, which he described as important for policy predictability.

He said Fitch expects the central bank to begin easing monetary policy later this year, assuming geopolitical risks recede and energy prices moderate.

“Our forecast is that the central bank will cut its policy rate by a total of 200 basis points, bringing it to 35% by the end of 2026,” Morales said.

Last month, the CBRT held its one-week repo rate steady for a third consecutive meeting as it monitored ‌the impact of the Iran war.

Since the conflict started, the bank has halted an easing cycle that began in late 2024 and taken other liquidity steps that pushed the lira overnight rate up to the ⁠40% limit.

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Turkish Airlines (THY) is evaluating acquisitions of airlines, cargo operators and maintenance, repair and overhaul (MRO) businesses as it seeks to expand its international footprint, a senior executive said Tuesday.

The national flag carrier agreed on a deal last August to purchase a minority stake in Spanish carrier Air Europa. Its chair, Murat Şeker, described the move as “a key step” and said the carrier’s next moves would probably be in Asia and South America.

Şeker told Bloomberg TV on Tuesday that the company now has “a bigger horizon in Asia, the Far East, in Europe and in Latin America.”

Turkish Airlines is also a partner with German flag carrier Lufthansa in leisure airline SunExpress.

On market conditions, Şeker said demand had returned to normal after a temporary boost due to the Iran war.

The conflict had prompted widespread Middle Eastern airspace closures, and passenger avoidance of Gulf routes redirected traffic toward Turkish Airlines.

The war also left airlines grappling with higher fuel costs as it choked jet fuel supplies following the effective closure of the key Strait of Hormuz.

As airlines in the region gradually resumed more regular operations, passenger demand normalized, Şeker said.

He also expressed optimism that ongoing negotiations with aircraft engine manufacturer CFM International would be concluded in the near future.

Turkish Airlines has orders in place for nearly 420 aircraft, including Airbus and Boeing jets, with negotiations continuing for an additional 100 Boeing planes.

The company plans to expand its nonstop long-haul network by deploying ultra-long-range aircraft from late 2027, enabling direct flights to destinations in Australia and South America.

Under its 2033 strategy, Turkish Airlines, which already serves more countries than almost any other carrier in the world, plans a major fleet replacement and expansion to around 800 aircraft. Its fleet included 542 planes as of the end of May.

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Turkish apparel retailer Koton said Tuesday that part of the company’s stock held for its online operations in Russia was damaged after recent Ukrainian drone strikes hit warehouses operated by Russian e-commerce giant Wildberries.

In a filing to the Public Disclosure Platform (KAP), Koton said the logistics hubs were hit during drone attacks carried out on July 17, with initial assessments showing that some of its inventory stored at the facilities had been affected.

Separately, the Kremlin ⁠said on ⁠Tuesday that businesses were suffering in the ​wake ​of Ukrainian ⁠attacks on warehouses owned by Wildberries, Russia’s largest online marketplace.

The two warehouses are located in the cities of Kotovsk, in the Tambov region, some 360 kilometers (220 miles) from the border with Ukraine, and Elektrostal, about 50 kilometers east of Moscow.

The attacks sparked ⁠fires and disrupted operations at Wildberries, which handles over 20 million orders per day. The company later said a logistics center in Koledino near Podolsk had also been evacuated as a precaution, but that operations had since resumed.

Reports said attacks had killed seven Wildberries ⁠warehouse ‌workers ‌and injured dozens more.

“The ⁠situation is indeed difficult because of the losses suffered ​both by the company ​itself and by representatives of ⁠small ‌and medium-sized ‌businesses,” Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov told journalists.

He denied ⁠accusations from ‌Ukraine that Wildberries ​handles military supplies used ⁠for Russia’s ⁠war effort.

Koton said the value of damaged stock represented approximately 0.4% of its total assets reported in its financial statements dated March 31.

It said it does not expect the damage to have a significant impact on its financial position, operations or business continuity.

Wildberries is continuing damage assessment work at the warehouses and has announced that it will introduce support measures for business partners affected by the incident, Koton said.

The Turkish company added that it is closely monitoring damage assessment and compensation procedures for affected inventory under its existing insurance policies, in coordination with local and regional insurance brokers.

More than four years into Russia’s invasion, Ukraine relies primarily on drones for counterstrikes on Russian territory.

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U.S. President Donald Trump announced a 50% tariff on a broad range of Canadian imports on Monday, citing alleged trade discrimination against American-made cars, alcohol and dairy products.

The move could unleash a new wave of economic chaos, with risks of higher inflation and further fraying of relations between two nations that had been closely woven together before Trump’s return to the White House.

The administration official previewing the action said that Canada was one of the few nations, other than China, that retaliated against Trump’s previous tariffs and must be held accountable.

The official insisted on anonymity on a call with reporters to preview the president’s actions and said that Trump signed three proclamations to launch the tariffs under Section 338 of the 1930 Trade Act. Several Democratic lawmakers last year proposed repealing the section because they said Trump could use it to destabilize the economy.

The U.S. Trade Representative’s office said that the tariffs would apply to nearly $20 billion of imports from Canada. That’s about 5.2% of the $382 billion worth of goods that the U.S. imported from Canada in 2025, according to U.S. Census Bureau data.

The new levies would exclude energy products, potash, fish and critical minerals, but they would include goods that had previously been protected from import taxes by the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement, or USMCA. That 2020 trade pact was not renewed by the U.S., triggering a new set of negotiations that could run until 2036.

The White House said in a fact sheet that the tariffs would go into effect in 30 days, meaning there is time for negotiations, as Trump has not always followed through on his announced tax hikes on imports.

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney said in a statement that his government believes in the “benefits of free and fair trade,” having signed “more than 20 new economic and security partnerships.” He said Canada is prepared to negotiate with the Trump administration.

“This trade dispute has raised costs for families, particularly in the U.S.,” Carney said. “Canada stands ready to engage intensively to address outstanding issues with the U.S. to the mutual benefit of our citizens.”

Risk of broader trade war

Still, the tariffs could escalate into a wider trade war as Canada seeks to defend its economy. Ontario Premier Doug Ford saw a possible showdown ahead.

“If these tariffs proceed, Canada should respond tariff for tariff, dollar for dollar,” Ford posted on social media.

Candace Laing, CEO of the Canadian Chamber of Commerce, said the Trump administration’s moves were “regrettable” but the two countries need to use the 30-day window before the tariffs start “to make meaningful progress in advancing formal talks.”

Chris Swonger, CEO of the Distilled Spirits Council of the United States, also called for a deal: “We encourage policymakers on both sides of the border to pursue a negotiated solution that restores market access for U.S. spirits and avoids further harm to the U.S. hospitality sector.”

But the use of a Great Depression-era law to impose the tariffs broadens some of the risks, as those tariffs could be applied to other U.S. trading partners, not just Canada, and inject “massive uncertainty” into the global economy, said Scott Lincicome, vice president of general economics at the Cato Institute, a libertarian think tank.

“We crossed the Rubicon,” Lincicome said. “The invocation of 338 is the nuclear option for Trump tariffs.”

Political challenge for Trump

The new tariffs carry serious political and economic risks for Trump ahead of the November midterm elections for control of Congress. His “Liberation Day” tariffs last year in April provoked a financial market meltdown over concerns about inflation and a recession, prompting him to walk back the rates for a period of negotiation.

The Supreme Court ruled this February that Trump had lacked the legal authority to impose the tariffs by declaring an economic emergency, causing the administration to find alternative ways to raise import taxes based on a series of legal authorities.

Tariffs are taxes on imports, which companies can then pass along to consumers in the form of higher prices. The president maintains that the costs created by tariffs will cause manufacturing to relocate to the U.S., though there is little evidence of that in the economic data.

“These new taxes will raise prices on American families and likely lead to retaliation against the very industries Trump purportedly wants to protect,” said Rep. Suzan DelBene, D-Wash., who is chair of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee.

The latest import taxes could worsen Trump’s weak ratings on the economy.

He promised voters when running for the presidency that he would bring prices down, but the annual inflation rate has risen since he became president because the tariffs and the war in Iran are pushing up oil prices.

Trump repeatedly targeted Canada

The Trump administration official said the president had also requested that his aides look into additional tariffs on Canada because its wildfires hurt air quality in the U.S. He had publicly threatened to do so in social media posts.

At the World Cup final on Sunday, Trump watched the game with Carney. The Trump administration official said their time together at the game was not a working visit to discuss trade and tariffs.

Trump claims in the proclamations that Canada discriminates against American autos, alcohol and cheese relative to other nations, but his argument rests in large part on retaliatory actions taken by Canada after the U.S. president imposed tariffs on Canada under the pretext that it should do more to stop fentanyl smuggling.

Trump noted in his auto proclamation that Canada maintained, starting in April 2025, a 25% tariff on the imports of U.S. motor vehicles that did not qualify for preferential treatment under the USMCA.

The White House said that, regarding alcohol, all but two Canadian provinces and territories halted the purchase and retailing of American alcoholic beverages beginning last year, which was also a response to Trump’s tariffs and taunts of making Canada the 51st state.

But Trump has long objected to Canada’s treatment of U.S. cheese, saying in his proclamation that Canada discriminates against the U.S. compared to Europe on dairy products.

Trump and Carney have had a frosty relationship, with Carney, a former central banker, pledging to go “elbows up” for Canada during his election campaign last year.

At the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, in January, Carney called out Trump – without naming him – by saying that the “most powerful” countries are using the economy to coerce less powerful nations.

Trump responded at the time by saying: “Canada lives because of the United States.”

Yemen’s Iran-aligned Houthis announced Monday they would impose a maritime blockade on Saudi Arabia, further throttling a global energy market already greatly restricted by Iran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

This is why it matters and what it means for the Iran war and the global energy crisis.

How big is risk to global energy markets?

It is not clear how the Houthis would carry out ​a maritime blockade of Saudi Arabia, its northern neighbor along the Red Sea coast, or whether it would include a return to attacks on shipping.

Yemen sits on the Bab el-Mandeb strait – the southern ‌gateway to the Red Sea – and closing that would open up a new front in the energy crisis and Iran’s overarching conflict with the U.S.

With the Strait of Hormuz already disrupted, the Red Sea has become a critical alternative outlet for Gulf oil and other products. A serious disruption would mean both of the Middle East’s major oil export routes are shut simultaneously.

Iran’s partial blockade of the Strait of Hormuz after Israel and the U.S. attacked it on Feb. 28 disrupted most oil and other exports from the Gulf, raising prices and delivering a global energy ​shock.

Saudi Arabia responded by diverting more than 70% of its normal daily crude exports to the Red Sea port of Yanbu. Ships from Yanbu bound for Europe go north through the Suez Canal. Those heading to Asia ​go south through Bab el-Mandeb.

Shipments from Yanbu averaged 4 million barrels per day in recent weeks according to data from Kpler and Signal Ocean, up from around 973,000 bpd a ⁠year earlier.

Total petroleum volumes transiting Bab el-Mandeb amounted to 7.4 million bpd in June, or about 7% of global oil output, according to Kpler data, up from 4.2 million bpd last year.

That has provided a lifeline for the energy ​market, helping to keep down global oil prices. Saudi Arabia is considering an expansion of its crude oil pipeline to the Red Sea coast, Reuters reported last week.

When the Houthis launched attacks on Red Sea shipping in November 2023, Gulf oil exports ​were flowing freely.

Are Houthis closing Red Sea energy routes on behalf of Iran?

The Houthis have been in a civil war against the Saudi-backed, internationally recognized government for more than a decade and have attacked Gulf neighbors with missiles and drones.

However, a 2022 truce between the country’s warring sides largely held until last week, when Yemen’s internationally recognized government said it had struck Sanaa airport ​to stop an Iranian plane landing.

The Houthis said Saudi Arabia was responsible and, in response, fired missiles at Abha airport in the kingdom’s mountainous southwest.

A senior Houthi official, politburo member Mohammad al-Farah, then warned in an interview on Iran’s ​Press TV website that if the situation kept escalating, Bab el-Mandeb would be closed.

The U.S. says Iran has armed, funded and trained the Houthis with help from Hezbollah. The Houthis deny being an Iranian proxy and say they develop their own weapons.

It is not clear how far the group’s stance on Bab el-Mandeb and the Red Sea stems from its own strategic priorities or is being made on Iran’s behalf.

What happened when Houthis attacked Red Sea ships before?

After Israel’s genocidal campaign in Gaza, the Houthis began firing at Israel ​and on shipping in the Red Sea, saying they were ​doing so in support of Palestinians.

The attacks severely disrupted ⁠global shipping, prompting Maersk, Hapag-Lloyd and other major companies to divert around Africa – a far longer, more expensive route.

Red Sea traffic has not recovered since, with traffic through the Suez Canal down 52% in 2025 versus 2023 levels and at its lowest in at least 50 years, Suez Canal Authority data shows.

A U.S.-led mission to restore free navigation in the Red ​Sea involved repeated strikes on Houthi targets and a campaign that shot down hundreds of drones and missiles.

But some Houthi attacks continued until last summer, only ending completely ​with the Gaza cease-fire in October.

Last ⁠month, the Houthis said they would ban ships linked to Israel from the Red Sea after Israel renewed military attacks on Iran.

However, that threat was never acted on and shipping groups Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd are resuming some Red Sea routes that they had abandoned during the Houthi attacks last year, Maersk said this month.

What have they done during the latest Iran war?

While Hezbollah and the Iraqi groups joined the war early with rocket and drone fire after the first U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran, the Houthis had ⁠been comparatively quiet.

The ​group’s leader Abdul Malik al-Houthi said on March 5: “Our fingers are on the trigger at any moment should developments warrant it.”

Iranian commanders have repeatedly ​warned that the Houthis could join the war. The Houthis launched a few missile and drone attacks on Israel in late March and early April.

Revolutionary Guards Quds Force commander Esmaeil Qaani said on June 1 they could choke off the Red Sea.

That may now have changed with their announcement ​of the blockade on Monday against Saudi Arabia in retaliation for what they called the kingdom’s siege of its ports and airports, including last week’s strike.

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