Politics
Mideast tensions may test NATO’s commitment to Türkiye: Analysts
NATO’s support for Türkiye in the event of escalating regional tensions would not only back Ankara but also test the alliance’s readiness, a security expert said Wednesday at a roundtable discussion in Paris on Türkiye-NATO relations.
Murat Aslan, a faculty member at Hasan Kalyoncu University and a senior researcher at the Foundation for Political, Economic and Social Research (SETA) think tank, warned that the recent U.S.-Israeli attacks on Iran could expand and potentially spread toward the Gulf region.
He said any escalation would inevitably affect the interests of both Türkiye and NATO.
Aslan also said modern conflicts increasingly involve confrontations between states and non-state actors, requiring what he described as a “hybrid response” combining military, political and security measures.
Presidential Chief Adviser Çağrı Erhan said the rules-based international order built around the U.N. system after World War II is facing growing pressure.
Speaking at the discussion, Erhan said global developments since the COVID-19 pandemic have pushed the world into a more uncertain period marked by rising security risks, fragile economic conditions and growing protectionism.
The meeting, hosted by the Turkish Embassy in Paris, brought together nearly 30 French and Turkish journalists to discuss Türkiye-NATO relations as well as developments in the Middle East and the Russia-Ukraine war.
“The rules-based international order is under attack from all sides,” Erhan said. “Right now, no one is talking about international law. Everything on the table is based solely on national interests. No one is talking about cooperation. We do not know what kind of new international order will emerge,” he noted.
Erhan also warned that the Russia-Ukraine war remains a major concern and that the ongoing conflict involving the U.S., Israel and Iran could escalate further.
He added that disruptions to global trade and supply chains are becoming an increasing risk.
Erhan noted that Türkiye will host an upcoming NATO summit in Ankara that will bring together leaders of NATO member states and other international partners.
“At the summit, we will discuss strengthening NATO’s defense against emerging security and defense risks,” he said.
Kılıç Buğra Kanat, research director at SETA in Washington, said Türkiye has experience dealing with instability and civil wars along its borders but warned that the latest attacks in the Middle East could trigger wider regional instability.
He said defense spending among Middle Eastern countries is likely to rise even if the attacks stop.
“If the conflict continues and any kind of civil war emerges in Iran, the consequences would be significant,” he said.
Kanat stressed the importance of preventing further escalation, noting that populations across the region are exhausted after years of conflict.
He added that the recent attacks have already begun to influence global energy prices and that their social, political and security effects may soon become more visible.
“What happens in the Middle East does not stay in the Middle East. We saw this in other conflicts in Syria and Iraq,” he said.
On March 4, a ballistic projectile fired from Iran and heading toward Turkish airspace was intercepted and neutralized by NATO air and missile defense elements deployed in the Eastern Mediterranean, Türkiye’s Defense Ministry announced.
On March 9, NATO-member Türkiye said it also shot down a ballistic missile fired from Iran, in the second such incident in five days. Some fragments from the weaponry fell in open territory in the southern Gaziantep area, causing no injuries, the Defense Ministry announced.
Türkiye summoned Iran’s ambassador to Ankara to convey a formal protest and expressed deep concern over the incident. Officials stressed that any steps that could expand ongoing conflicts or further destabilize the region must be avoided.
Following the missile incidents, several organizations and states condemned the attack and voiced solidarity with Türkiye, including NATO, the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation (OIC), Spain, the UAE, Albania, Belgium, Pakistan and Italy.
The developments came amid the ongoing U.S.-Israeli attacks on Iran, launched on Feb. 28, which have so far killed more than 1,000 people, including Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and top Iranian officials.
President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan said Friday that Türkiye will not be drawn into the ongoing tensions involving Iran, Israel and the United States, stressing that Ankara is taking all necessary measures to protect its airspace while prioritizing keeping the country away from the widening conflict.
Speaking at an iftar, Erdoğan said Türkiye remains vigilant against any threats, noting that authorities responded swiftly after an Iranian ballistic missile fired toward Türkiye was intercepted.
He said the country continues to take preventive steps to safeguard its airspace, emphasizing that similar measures were implemented the previous night.
“Our main priority is to keep our country away from this pit of fire,” Erdoğan said, underlining Ankara’s cautious approach amid escalating regional tensions.
The Turkish president added that Türkiye is proceeding with “great caution in the face of plots, traps and provocations aimed at dragging our country into war.”
Erdoğan also criticized the global hypocrisy toward humanitarian crises, saying some countries have turned a blind eye to oppression and genocide while others openly support actors responsible for such crimes, including Israel.
He argued that the suffering of children in conflict zones often fails to receive the attention it deserves.
“The suffering of orphaned children in Gaza and Syria has drawn less attention than a lone penguin,” Erdoğan said, describing what he called the “fake conscience” of the virtual world.
Despite the global crisis of conscience, Erdoğan said Türkiye remains committed to acting responsibly and upholding humanitarian values.
“In a world experiencing a crisis of conscience, we are united in our struggle to ensure that Türkiye serves as the conscience of humanity,” he said.
Türkiye’s Family and Social Services Minister Mahinur Özdemir Göktaş walked out of a United Nations meeting Thursday as an Israeli minister began speaking, in a move that was also echoed by several other delegates.
Göktaş was attending a high-level meeting titled “Violence Against Women and Girls,” held on the sidelines of the 70th session of the U.N. Commission on the Status of Women in New York.
She left the room shortly after Israeli Minister May Golan took the floor following her speech.
Several representatives from other countries were also seen leaving the meeting in protest.
Türkiye has long condemned Israel for its war on Gaza, where nearly 72,000 people, mostly women and children, have been killed since Oct. 7, 2023.
Göktaş also addressed participants about Türkiye’s policies and initiatives to combat violence against women, describing gender-based violence as “the most severe, ruthless and destructive manifestation of inequality and discrimination.”
She emphasized that preventing violence requires strong political will, effective mechanisms and determined action, adding that the fight must involve preventive, protective and empowerment-focused policies.
Göktaş also stressed that empowering women in all areas of life is one of the most effective ways to prevent violence.
She added that Türkiye remains committed to sharing its experience, strengthening international cooperation and contributing to joint solutions in the global fight against violence against women.
Türkiye on Thursday defended what it called “legitimate” security measures in the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (TRNC), including the deployment of fighter jets and air defense systems, citing growing regional risks stemming from the war involving Iran.
In a weekly briefing in Ankara, the Defense Ministry officials said the steps, which include stationing six F-16 fighter jets on the island, are aimed at strengthening deterrence and protecting airspace in the Eastern Mediterranean as missile and drone threats rise following U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran.
Officials said the additional measures would contribute not only to the security of the TRNC but to the stability of the entire island.
“The security of the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus and the preservation of peace and stability in the Eastern Mediterranean are of strategic importance for Türkiye, and our position on this issue is clear and unchanged,” they said.
The island of Cyprus has been directly affected by retaliatory attacks following the U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran, with an Iranian-made drone hitting a British base on the island last week.
Authorities in the Greek Cypriot administration said the drone was likely launched by Iran-backed Hezbollah in Lebanon rather than directly from Iran.
The island remains divided between the Turkish Cypriot north and the Greek Cypriot administration in the south, an EU member not recognized by guarantor Türkiye.
Following the incident, several European countries pledged to send air defenses and other military assets to southern Cyprus, with France ordering the aircraft carrier Charles de Gaulle to the Mediterranean, along with a frigate and air defense units to the island.
Turkish officials said the presence of additional foreign military assets in the region further underscored the legitimacy of Ankara’s actions.
“Türkiye is a guarantor country in Cyprus. In an environment where some countries that are not guarantors are deploying military elements to the island and the Eastern Mediterranean, the measures taken by Türkiye are extremely legitimate, appropriate and part of a balanced security approach,” ministry sources said.
“Türkiye is sufficient for the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus.”
There is also unease on the Turkish side over the Greek Cypriot administration’s expanding military cooperation with Western partners, particularly after the United Kingdom allowed the United States to use its military facilities on the southern part of the island.
British installations, including the Royal Air Force base at Akrotiri, have played a key logistical role in Western operations in the Middle East in recent years.
Despite decades of diplomatic efforts by the U.N., the island of Cyprus has remained divided for more than 50 years. The TRNC was established in 1983 and is recognized only by Türkiye.
“Türkiye acts with an understanding that protects peace and stability rather than escalating tensions in the region,” ministry officials said. “The security of the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus is our security concern.”
They added that Ankara would not allow any hostile actions targeting the rights and interests of Turkish Cypriots and would not hesitate to use the authorities granted by its guarantor status if necessary.
Patriot system
The ministry also addressed recent developments related to air defense measures in southeastern Türkiye.
Türkiye said Monday that NATO air defenses intercepted a second ballistic missile fired from Iran that entered Turkish airspace, marking the second such incident in a week.
Ankara warned that it would take any necessary steps against threats.
In response to the evolving security situation, officials said consultations with NATO allies had been activated.
“In addition to the national measures we have taken to ensure the security of our airspace and citizens, consultation mechanisms with our NATO allies have been effectively activated,” ministry sources said.
“As part of this framework, a Patriot system assigned by NATO Allied Air Command in Ramstein, Germany, is being deployed to Malatya as a complementary element of the air defense architecture.”
It remained unclear where the missile was headed before it was intercepted by NATO defenses stationed in the eastern Mediterranean.
U.S. air forces are stationed at the Incirlik base in southern Türkiye, and a NATO radar installation in Malatya province provides early warning capabilities for the alliance.
Fragments from the intercepted missile fell in empty fields in Gaziantep, located between the two facilities, authorities said.
Ankara has said Washington did not use Incirlik in the air campaign carried out alongside Israel against Iran.
Iran has not commented on the incident but has repeatedly stated it is not at war with regional countries and does not explicitly target Türkiye.
Officials also stressed that NATO remains committed to protecting allied territories.
“NATO is a security alliance with the will to defend the airspace and territory of its member states,” ministry sources said.
“Türkiye, with its geostrategic location, strong armed forces and critical role on NATO’s southeastern flank, is one of the most important elements of this structure.”
They said recent steps were aimed at reinforcing collective defense and deterrence.
“These measures are intended to strengthen the common security of both Türkiye and NATO in line with the alliance’s principles of defense, deterrence and allied solidarity,” the sources added.
Incirlik remains Turkish base
The ministry also emphasized that Incirlik Air Base remains under Turkish sovereignty.
“Incirlik is a Turkish base,” officials said, noting that the 10th Main Jet Base Command, which operates under the Turkish Air Force’s Combat Air Forces Command in Eskişehir, is stationed there.
The base hosts Türkiye’s F-16 fleet, tanker aircraft and unmanned aerial vehicles, and all facilities belong to the Republic of Türkiye, the ministry said.
The base commander is a Turkish brigadier general.
“The presence of American personnel there does not mean it is an American base,” officials said, adding that military personnel from Spain, Poland and Qatar are also present.
Air defense decisions
Officials also addressed questions about why Türkiye’s Russian-made S-400 air defense systems were not used during the missile incident.
They said the country’s air and missile defense operations are conducted through a multilayered structure based on threat assessments and operational requirements.
“In this framework, the most appropriate defense element is determined by considering the rules of engagement and the current operational picture,” the ministry said.
Türkiye is integrated into NATO’s air and missile defense system, which consists of early warning sensors, command and control networks and interceptor missiles.
“When a ballistic missile is detected, the system automatically selects and activates the fastest and most suitable interception asset due to the very short response time required,” officials said.
Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan on Thursday warned that Ankara will not permit any attempts to incite civil war in Iran amid Tehran’s war with the U.S. and Israel.
“We are against plans aimed at triggering a civil war in Iran and provoking conflicts along ethnic and religious fault lines,” Fidan told a press conference with his German counterpart Johann Wadephul in Ankara.
“We are warning about this. No one should pursue such a fantasy. We would not allow it,” Fidan said.
He assured Ankara and Berlin agreed the war must stop “as soon as possible” and that the two NATO allies were working on it.
Fidan and Wadephul met as the two NATO allies seek to deepen cooperation in political, economic and security fields.
The impact of the U.S.-Israel-Iran conflict is already evident, Fidan said, adding that the risk of it spreading remains.
“There should be no questioning of Iran’s territorial integrity, and no pursuit of regime change,” Fidan said.
Fidan also called for an end to Israel’s bombardment of neighboring Lebanon “before it collapses.”
“Israel, pursuing expansionist policies, is bringing its dirty war into Lebanon. Israeli attacks must end before the Lebanese state collapses,” he said.
“The government of (Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin) Netanyahu is at the heart of every crisis in the region,” he told a news conference with his German counterpart, Johann Wadephul.
“Israel, pursuing an expansionist policy, is exploiting the current war to bring its dirty war into Lebanon,” he added.
“Israel’s attacks must end before the Lebanese state collapses,” he said, warning that if that were to happen, it would “profoundly affect the entire region,” especially the neighboring countries.
The mass displacement of people in Lebanon is “absolutely unacceptable,” he said.
Lebanon was drawn into the Middle East war last week when Hezbollah attacked Israel in response to the killing of Iranian supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in U.S.-Israeli strikes.
Israel, which kept up its strikes in Lebanon even before the war despite a 2024 cease-fire, has since launched air raids and sent ground troops into border areas.
The violence has killed more than 687 people, according to Lebanese authorities, while more than 800,000 people have registered as displaced.
Wadephul arrived from the Saudi capital Riyadh in Türkiye as the final stop of his trip to the Middle East and the Gulf region. The minister visited the Greek Cypriot administration on Monday before traveling for talks to Israel, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Qatar.
For his part, Wadephul said Germany was prepared to “take on responsibility before its continent.”
A solution to security issues in the strategically important Strait of Hormuz can only be achieved diplomatically, he also said. “A reliable and sustainable solution can only be achieved through diplomatic channels, and that is why I believe … that we should pool our common interests from the Gulf region, but also here in the neighborhood.
Iran’s retaliation to U.S.-Israeli aggression has included strikes on ships in the Strait of Hormuz, bringing non-Iranian vessel transits through the main gateway for much of Middle Eastern oil exports to a near standstill and forcing producers in the region to cut output.
“Together, we must find a way out of this war and, at the same time, develop an initial idea of what a future security architecture for the region might look like,” Wadephul said.
He also said Germany and Türkiye had a joint interest in preventing large migration from Iran during the war.
President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan said Türkiye will continue its diplomatic efforts with “patience and determination” despite attempts to undermine hopes in ongoing diplomacy involving the United States, Israel and Iran, where he welcomed U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres at the Presidential Complex in Ankara.
Erdoğan said Türkiye remains committed to diplomatic engagement as regional tensions intensify.
He stressed that Ankara is actively working to prevent escalating conflicts in the region from turning into a broader catastrophe, saying Türkiye is striving to ease crises wherever they arise.
Erdoğan said Türkiye will continue pursuing diplomatic initiatives despite efforts to weaken the prospects for dialogue in the ongoing diplomatic process involving the United States, Israel and Iran.
The Turkish president also reiterated his belief that justice is essential for development, peace and stability, adding that Türkiye will continue supporting efforts to make the United Nations a more inclusive institution.
During his remarks, Erdoğan praised Guterres’ leadership and longstanding commitment to dialogue and peace, recalling his previous roles as Portugal’s prime minister and as the United Nations high commissioner for refugees.
Erdoğan noted that Türkiye has strengthened its cooperation with the United Nations during Guterres’ tenure as secretary-general, highlighting joint diplomatic initiatives aimed at addressing global crises.
He pointed to the Black Sea Grain Initiative as an example of successful cooperation that helped prevent a global food crisis and said Türkiye continues to work closely with the United Nations on efforts to end the war in Ukraine.
Erdoğan also commended Guterres’ stance on Gaza, describing it as a principled position during what he called one of the most severe injustices of the current era.
The president emphasized that diplomacy and dialogue remain the safest path toward achieving a just and lasting peace.
Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan and Akif Çağatay Kılıç, the president’s chief adviser on foreign policy and security, also attended the meeting.
Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) Chairman Devlet Bahçeli warned that attempts are underway to provoke conflict between Türkiye and Iran and ignite broader regional tensions, vowing that Ankara will not bow to any threats.
Speaking at an iftar gathering attended by members of the party’s Central Executive Board, Central Disciplinary Board and lawmakers, Bahçeli said there were efforts aimed at pushing Türkiye and Iran into confrontation while also fueling clashes between Iran and Gulf countries to influence the course of regional conflicts.
Bahçeli stressed that Türkiye is not a state that would fall into intelligence or perception traps designed to destabilize the country.
He warned that Türkiye must remain vigilant against geopolitical schemes seeking to drag the country into chaos and reshape the regional balance through conflict.
The MHP leader said Türkiye should be prepared for all possible scenarios and act carefully to prevent such plans from succeeding.
His remarks came days after ballistic missiles fired from Iran toward Turkish airspace were intercepted by NATO defense systems, with Turkish officials condemning the violation of the country’s airspace and warning that Ankara would take necessary measures to protect its sovereignty.
Türkiye has recently intensified diplomatic contacts with regional and international partners as fighting in the Middle East raises concerns about the risk of a broader regional conflict and its potential impact on the country’s security.
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