Politics
Mideast tensions may test NATO’s commitment to Türkiye: Analysts
NATO’s support for Türkiye in the event of escalating regional tensions would not only back Ankara but also test the alliance’s readiness, a security expert said Wednesday at a roundtable discussion in Paris on Türkiye-NATO relations.
Murat Aslan, a faculty member at Hasan Kalyoncu University and a senior researcher at the Foundation for Political, Economic and Social Research (SETA) think tank, warned that the recent U.S.-Israeli attacks on Iran could expand and potentially spread toward the Gulf region.
He said any escalation would inevitably affect the interests of both Türkiye and NATO.
Aslan also said modern conflicts increasingly involve confrontations between states and non-state actors, requiring what he described as a “hybrid response” combining military, political and security measures.
Presidential Chief Adviser Çağrı Erhan said the rules-based international order built around the U.N. system after World War II is facing growing pressure.
Speaking at the discussion, Erhan said global developments since the COVID-19 pandemic have pushed the world into a more uncertain period marked by rising security risks, fragile economic conditions and growing protectionism.
The meeting, hosted by the Turkish Embassy in Paris, brought together nearly 30 French and Turkish journalists to discuss Türkiye-NATO relations as well as developments in the Middle East and the Russia-Ukraine war.
“The rules-based international order is under attack from all sides,” Erhan said. “Right now, no one is talking about international law. Everything on the table is based solely on national interests. No one is talking about cooperation. We do not know what kind of new international order will emerge,” he noted.
Erhan also warned that the Russia-Ukraine war remains a major concern and that the ongoing conflict involving the U.S., Israel and Iran could escalate further.
He added that disruptions to global trade and supply chains are becoming an increasing risk.
Erhan noted that Türkiye will host an upcoming NATO summit in Ankara that will bring together leaders of NATO member states and other international partners.
“At the summit, we will discuss strengthening NATO’s defense against emerging security and defense risks,” he said.
Kılıç Buğra Kanat, research director at SETA in Washington, said Türkiye has experience dealing with instability and civil wars along its borders but warned that the latest attacks in the Middle East could trigger wider regional instability.
He said defense spending among Middle Eastern countries is likely to rise even if the attacks stop.
“If the conflict continues and any kind of civil war emerges in Iran, the consequences would be significant,” he said.
Kanat stressed the importance of preventing further escalation, noting that populations across the region are exhausted after years of conflict.
He added that the recent attacks have already begun to influence global energy prices and that their social, political and security effects may soon become more visible.
“What happens in the Middle East does not stay in the Middle East. We saw this in other conflicts in Syria and Iraq,” he said.
On March 4, a ballistic projectile fired from Iran and heading toward Turkish airspace was intercepted and neutralized by NATO air and missile defense elements deployed in the Eastern Mediterranean, Türkiye’s Defense Ministry announced.
On March 9, NATO-member Türkiye said it also shot down a ballistic missile fired from Iran, in the second such incident in five days. Some fragments from the weaponry fell in open territory in the southern Gaziantep area, causing no injuries, the Defense Ministry announced.
Türkiye summoned Iran’s ambassador to Ankara to convey a formal protest and expressed deep concern over the incident. Officials stressed that any steps that could expand ongoing conflicts or further destabilize the region must be avoided.
Following the missile incidents, several organizations and states condemned the attack and voiced solidarity with Türkiye, including NATO, the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation (OIC), Spain, the UAE, Albania, Belgium, Pakistan and Italy.
The developments came amid the ongoing U.S.-Israeli attacks on Iran, launched on Feb. 28, which have so far killed more than 1,000 people, including Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and top Iranian officials.
Turkish activists detained during an Israeli interception of a Gaza-bound aid flotilla are expected to return to Istanbul on Friday, organizers said.
According to a statement by the Global Sumud Flotilla, around 20 Turkish participants are due to arrive at Istanbul Airport between 5 p.m. and 6 p.m. local time after being transferred to Greece.
“Following the attack on the flotilla, 175 activists were taken to the Greek island of Crete for repatriation,” the group said, adding that Turkish citizens were among those being returned.
The flotilla, part of a broader international effort to deliver humanitarian aid to Gaza, included 345 participants from 39 countries, according to organizers. The mission initially departed from Barcelona on April 12, with additional participants joining from Sicily before setting sail again on April 26.
On Thursday, Israel’s Foreign Ministry said 175 activists had been detained after more than 20 vessels were seized in international waters while en route to the Gaza Strip.
Organizers on Friday called on governments to pressure Israel to release the two activists remaining in custody.
The mission marks the second initiative by the Global Sumud Flotilla, following a previous attempt in September 2025 that ended with an Israeli interception in international waters and the detention of hundreds of international activists.
In October 2023, Israel launched a genocidal war on the Gaza Strip, which has killed more than 72,000 Palestinians, most of them women and children, and destroyed about 90% of the enclave’s infrastructure, with reconstruction costs estimated by the United Nations at around $70 billion.
Israel has imposed a blockade on the Gaza Strip since 2007, leaving about 1.5 million Palestinians out of roughly 2.4 million homeless after their homes were destroyed during the war.
A group of activists detained after an Israeli military interception of the Gaza-bound Sumud aid flotilla in international waters arrived in Istanbul late Friday aboard a special flight, Turkish authorities said.
The plane, operated by Turkish Airlines, carried 59 people, including 18 Turkish nationals, from the Greek island of Crete to Istanbul Airport, where it landed at 9:45 p.m. local time.
The activists, who were part of the Global Sumud Flotilla, were welcomed by relatives and officials at the airport’s VIP terminal. They are expected to undergo medical examinations at the Istanbul Forensic Medicine Institute as part of an investigation launched by the Istanbul Chief Public Prosecutor’s Office into Israel’s crimes.
The flotilla had set sail in April from Barcelona with the aim of breaking Israel’s blockade on Gaza and delivering humanitarian aid. After additional participants joined in Sicily, the group resumed its journey on April 26.
According to flotilla organizers, Israeli forces intercepted the vessels late on April 29 in international waters off the coast of Crete, damaging boats and detaining activists. The group said the fleet was targeted about 600 nautical miles from Gaza, just outside Greek territorial waters.
Organizers said the flotilla included 345 participants from 39 countries, including Turkish citizens.
Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan held a phone call with Greek Foreign Minister Yorgo Gerapetritis on Thursday to discuss Israel’s attack on the Global Sumud Flotilla, Turkish diplomatic sources said.
Fidan and Gerapetritis spoke by phone earlier in the day, focusing on the reported Israeli attack targeting the Global Sumud Flotilla, a Gaza-bound aid mission, according to sources from Türkiye’s Foreign Ministry.
The two ministers exchanged views on the developments and their regional implications, particularly in light of rising tensions linked to Gaza.
No further details were immediately provided regarding the content of the discussions or any potential follow-up steps.
The call comes amid growing international reactions to the incident, which has drawn criticism and renewed attention to humanitarian access to Gaza.
Amid a debate over the future of NATO, Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan says there is a historic opportunity to confirm it, namely the alliance’s summit in the Turkish capital Ankara in July.
Addressing a conference at the Diplomatic Academy of Vienna on Wednesday, Fidan said Türkiye’s strategic necessity was maintaining trans-Atlantic ties. “A more capable and more European NATO will be at the center of the debate at the summit,” he said.
After NATO allies refused to give him the support he was demanding in the Iran war, which he had begun without consulting or informing them, U.S. President Donald Trump openly questioned whether the U.S. should stand by NATO’s mutual defense pact and said he was considering leaving the alliance. Months earlier, he had laid claim to Greenland, an autonomous territory belonging to fellow NATO member Denmark. Trump will likely skip the summit while Europe looks to bolster its defenses with more multilateral partnerships outside and inside NATO.
Fidan said a new security architecture that will be established after the Russia-Ukraine conflict will demonstrate whether Europe will be safe as a whole, noting that the post-World War II security architecture has been under great pressure. He noted that Türkiye has been a NATO ally for more than seven decades, and it was Türkiye’s strategic necessity to sustain the ties.
He added that Europe was “bigger than the EU” and its security and defense initiatives should be coordinated carefully with NATO and non-EU partners. “On the other hand, we witness a contradicting weaponization of the EU’s joint security and foreign policy,” he complained.
A key partner of NATO, Türkiye will host the leaders’ summit of the alliance for the second time in more than two decades. Heads of state and top figures from member countries will attend the summit scheduled to be held on July 7-8. Some 6,000 participants are expected to participate in the event. Türkiye this year marks the 74th anniversary of its admission to NATO and boasts the second biggest army of the alliance. It is the only country in NATO’s “southern flank” with a sizeable military power and a gateway to the Middle East and wider Asia. Security of the Black Sea also largely depends on Türkiye, especially amid the Russia-Ukraine conflict, which threatens maritime security.
President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan met with Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) leader Devlet Bahçeli in Ankara on Thursday, with talks focusing on Türkiye’s “terror-free” initiative and rising regional tensions linked to Iran.
Erdoğan hosted Bahçeli at the Presidential Complex in Beştepe for a meeting that lasted approximately 50 minutes, according to official sources.
The leaders discussed steps to advance Türkiye’s “terror-free” initiative, including potential legislative measures expected to be brought before Parliament. The talks covered efforts aimed at strengthening national security and eliminating terrorist threats.
Regional developments also featured prominently on the agenda, particularly escalating tensions in the Middle East and risks related to a possible Iran-linked conflict. Erdoğan and Bahçeli assessed the potential impact of regional instability on Türkiye’s border security and reviewed possible national measures to address emerging threats.
The meeting underscored continued coordination within the People’s Alliance on both domestic and foreign policy issues.
A parliamentary commission established after deadly school attacks in southeastern Türkiye will examine the incidents from a broad perspective, including security, education, family life, social media and the wider social environment, its chairperson said.
Yusuf Beyazıt, head of the Parliamentary Investigation Commission on the Causes of School Attacks and a ruling Justice and Development Party (AK Party) lawmaker from Tokat, told Anadolu Agency (AA) that the panel aims to identify the underlying causes of the attacks and propose measures to prevent similar incidents.
“We will make efforts to reach a conclusion by also following studies around the world,” Beyazıt said. “Our road map includes visiting Şanlıurfa and Kahramanmaraş to assess the incidents on-site.”
The commission was formed in parliament following attacks on schools in Kahramanmaraş and Şanlıurfa. Beyazıt offered condolences to the families of those killed and wished a speedy recovery to the injured, saying the country had experienced deep sorrow.
He said all political parties supported the establishment of the parliamentary inquiry commission, which consists of 22 members. The commission held its first meeting and formed its administrative board.
Beyazıt said the incidents should not be assessed from a single angle, stressing that schools, families, social surroundings, children’s psychology, security measures and the influence of digital platforms all need to be considered together.
“When we focus only on one part and say ‘security,’ ‘education’ or ‘children,’ we may overlook the family, the environment, the school, society and the effects of social media on children,” he said. “We want to look at this issue holistically.”
He said the commission would not merely examine the consequences of the attacks, but also work to identify the factors that led to them.
The panel includes lawmakers with backgrounds in medicine, education and law, Beyazıt said, adding that the commission would gather information from relevant public institutions, civil society groups and experts.
“We will examine whatever factors may help prevent similar incidents,” he noted. “If legislative work is needed, we will make recommendations. We will also share various proposals with the relevant institutions and organizations.”
Beyazıt also underlined that the commission would also review the effects of social media, television and external influences on children, as well as teacher-student relations and communication between families and children.
He said the commission’s working schedule would be determined next week, including which experts and institutions would be invited to provide input.
“No one wants such incidents to happen again,” Beyazıt added. “The fire did not burn only where it fell. It burned all of Türkiye. It affected all of us deeply.”
Beyazıt said he plans to visit the graves of the children who lost their lives, along with members of the commission, before meeting with the families and injured students.
“These children went to school with cheerful feelings, only to receive an education,” he noted. “No one expected such pain that day. This is a very important issue, and it should not be viewed through a political lens.”
He stressed that children should be protected from harmful external influences and encouraged to take part in sports, arts and other constructive activities.
After completing its work, the commission will prepare a report and submit recommendations, including possible legislative proposals, Beyazıt said.
Recent school attacks in Kahramanmaraş and Şanlıurfa have accelerated work on a new social media regulation package, intensifying political momentum around digital child safety.
The measures have been on the agenda of lawmakers for some time now, but two school shootings earlier this month appear to be fast-tracking their passing. The second school shooting in the province of Kahramanmaraş by a 14-year-old boy sparked debate about social media. In the aftermath of the attack that killed 10 people, a barrage of online threats against schools was uncovered, and security forces found out that those behind the threats were mostly underage.
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