Economy
Oil dips below $100, stocks rally on US-Iran cease-fire relief
Global stock markets took a breather on Wednesday while oil dipped below $100 a barrel as a two-week Middle East cease-fire was agreed and hopes arose for a resumption of oil and gas flows through the Strait of Hormuz.
The news capped weeks of market volatility and geopolitical upheaval after U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran at the end of February pushed tensions to the brink, with Tehran effectively choking off the strategic waterway that typically carries about 20% of the world’s energy supplies.
U.S. President Donald Trump on Tuesday announced the cease-fire less than two hours before his deadline for Iran to reopen the strait or face devastating attacks on its civilian infrastructure. Iran said it would cease counterattacks and provide safe passage through the waterway if attacks against it stop.
The market rally revived investor talk of the “TACO trade” – or “Trump Always Chickens Out” – after past policy reversals, although some noted the damage to energy infrastructure across the Middle East over the month-long conflict would inflict long-term strains on the global economy and the prospect of a lasting peace was far from certain.
Market reaction was swift and dramatic, as oil prices plunged and stocks from Asia to Europe rallied.
“It’s a huge relief to see that we finally have a cease-fire between the U.S. and Iran,” said Nabil Milali, portfolio manager at Edmond de Rothschild, adding he believed Trump had calculated that further escalation would likely backfire.
“So he did the only other option he had in front of him, which is a unilateral TACO,” he said.
Oil prices would likely remain “structurally higher” for a while, he added.
Brent oil futures were last down 13.7% at $94.29 by midday, while U.S crude futures were down 16% at $94.93 a barrel, but were still well above pre-war levels.
European stocks rose 4%, following strong gains across Asian markets. Wall Street futures pointed to gains of 2.7%-3.5%.
The U.S. dollar fell broadly, having been the haven of choice during the tumult, with the index against other major currencies easing to 98.842.
“Markets can worry about the complexities later. For now, they’ve been given the green light to rally,” said Matt Simpson, a senior market analyst at StoneX.
Two weeks of relief
The six-week conflict had sent oil prices soaring, reignited inflation fears and thrown the global rates outlook into disarray, forcing governments and companies to scramble for cover against a sudden energy shock.
Trump’s social media announcement on the cease-fire marked an abrupt reversal from hours earlier, when he issued an extraordinary warning that “a whole civilization will die tonight” unless his demands were met.
Beyond the immediate relief, investors remain keen to see whether the cease-fire leads to a broader resolution before placing major bets.
“Does it mean people are going to take new risks? No, it doesn’t,” said Martin Whetton, head of financial markets strategy at Westpac. “It would have to actually be a lasting peace (to change things). People aren’t actually taking risk.”
Gold prices climbed 1.7% to $4,783 per ounce.
U.S. Treasuries surged after the announcement, with traders putting the prospect of rate cuts from the Federal Reserve later in the year back on the table, although doubts about whether oil prices will go back to pre-war levels kept enthusiasm in check.
The yield on the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note dropped to 4.2438%, the lowest since mid-March, while the U.S. two-year Treasury notes sank to 3.7318%.
Eurozone government bond yields also dropped sharply, as the ceasefire prompted traders to dramatically scale back their bets on future rate hikes from the European Central Bank (ECB).
“The evolution of oil would determine if this rally (in bonds) continues or gets faded, which of course depends on how the negotiations go,” said Rohan Khanna, head of euro rates strategy at Barclays.
“In the very short term, it may remove the impulse for the ECB to hike rates in April and the market has repriced that meeting accordingly, but the meeting is still three weeks away, and that’s a long time in these markets.”
Shippers looking to revive the passage of tankers through the Strait of Hormuz were seeking clarity on the logistics, while refiners inquired about new crude loadings on Wednesday, in response to a cease-fire deal between the U.S. and Iran.
Most stranded oil and gas tankers remained inside the Gulf, LSEG shipping data showed, hours after President Donald Trump announced the two-week cease-fire and said the U.S. would help with the traffic build-up.
Iran’s foreign minister, Abbas Araqchi, said that if attacks against it stop, Tehran would cease counter-attacks and provide safe passage in coordination with its armed forces “and with due consideration of technical limitations.”
Ship tracker Kpler said some 187 laden tankers carrying 172 million barrels of crude oil and refined products were afloat inside the strait as of Tuesday.
A senior Iranian official involved in the discussions told Reuters Tehran could open the Strait of Hormuz on Thursday or Friday ahead of planned peace talks in Pakistan, if a framework for the cease-fire is agreed.
With more than 1,000 ocean-going vessels trapped within the Gulf, it would likely take more than two weeks to clear the backlog even under normal conditions, said Daejin Lee, global head of research at Fertmax FZCO.
“A 14-day window is simply too short to restore the level of confidence needed to fully unwind the embedded uncertainty premium – particularly for Arabian Gulf loading routes,” he said.
Lee said details remained unclear, including what actions ships and charterers must take to gain passage.
“Many blue-chip shipowners may wait several days to ensure the cease-fire holds before committing vessels,” he said.
Jakob Larsen, chief safety and security officer at shipping association Bimco, said the industry was awaiting technical details from the U.S. and Iran.
“Leaving the … Gulf without prior coordination with the U.S. and Iran would entail heightened risk and would not be advisable,” he said.
Wait-and-see
Iran blockaded the strait in response to U.S. and Israeli attacks that started on Feb. 28, all but closing the waterway through which 20% of global oil and liquefied natural gas cargoes transit, sending energy prices soaring and rattling economies and markets. The cease-fire, announced about 90 minutes before Trump’s deadline to reopen the strait, led to a plunge in oil prices.
Two shipbrokers said shipowners are likely to remain in a wait-and-see mode before allowing vessels to enter the Gulf.
Inquiries for very large crude carriers to load Middle East crude for Asia jumped on Wednesday with Asian refiners including Reliance Industries, Indian Oil Corp, Nghi Son Refinery and Petrochemical and CNOOC, as well as Abu Dhabi National Oil Co, Glencore and TotalEnergies, looking for vessels, three shipping sources said.
Glencore and TotalEnergies declined to comment. The other firms named did not immediately respond to requests for comment. Danish shipping group Maersk said the cease-fire may create transit opportunities for vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, but that it did not yet provide full maritime certainty.
Indonesia’s Foreign Ministry said it is working with Iranian authorities to secure the passage of two Pertamina vessels that have been stranded in the gulf.
“Several technical matters are being followed up to ensure safe passage through, including matters such as insurance and crew readiness,” said ministry spokesperson Vahd Nabyl Achmad Mulachela.
China’s Foreign Ministry said it hopes all parties make joint efforts to facilitate early resumption of normal trade through the strait, while Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi held talks with Iran’s president.
Asian economies are the main buyers of oil shipped through the strait and have been hit especially hard by the disruption.
“We expect tankers and oil flowing to Iranian-friendly countries to be the first ones to transit,” said Anoop Singh, global head of shipping research at Oil Brokerage.
“Most of the crude tankers will be allowed to pass,” he said, adding that he expects more than 50 Very Large Crude Carriers and about 15 Suezmaxes to exit.
Türkiye’s five-year credit default swap (CDS) risk premiums dropped on Wednesday, while its main stock index gained close to 5% by midday in response to the temporary cease-fire between the U.S. and Iran.
The bullish trend followed the global markets, which largely enjoyed a dose of relief after the cease-fire was announced overnight.
The two-week cease-fire drove down Türkiye’s borrowing costs, while its BIST 100 index soared 4.8% to 13,541 points by 1:00 p.m. local time (10:00 a.m. GMT).
U.S. President Donald Trump said the talks mediated by Pakistan, just hours before the deadline he set for Iran, resulted positively.
Trump accepted Pakistan’s proposal, which includes reopening the Strait of Hormuz, saying that the bombing and attacks against Iran will be suspended for two weeks.
Trump had previously claimed the U.S. had completed its military objectives in Iran and was close to reaching a long-term peace deal. He recently said Washington received a 10-point proposal from Iran as a basis for negotiations.
The U.S. 10-Year Treasury yield fell 8 basis points to 4.24%, the two-year yield dropped 9 basis points to 3.73%, and the five-year yield fell 9 basis points to 3.86%, following these developments.
In line with falling bond yields worldwide, Türkiye’s CDS dropped 17 basis points to 268 basis points. The figure stood at 235 basis points before the U.S. and Israel attacked Iran at the end of February, and previously rose to 327 basis points in March.
Capital flows in emerging markets are expected to strengthen with the U.S. 10-Year Treasury bond yield declining, as it is one of the most critical indicators within the global financial system.
Global shares, from Asia to Europe, surged in Wednesday trading, as oil prices plunged below $100 on cautious optimism that the cease-fire could translate into lasting peace, although some analysts remain skeptical.
Global stock markets took a breather on Wednesday while oil dipped below $100 a barrel as a two-week Middle East cease-fire was agreed and all eyes turned to weighing the potential for a resumption of oil and gas flows through the Strait of Hormuz.
The news capped weeks of market volatility and geopolitical upheaval after U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran at the end of February pushed tensions to the brink, with Tehran effectively choking off the strategic waterway that typically carries about 20% of the world’s energy supplies.
U.S. President Donald Trump on Tuesday agreed to the cease-fire less than two hours before his deadline for Iran to reopen the strait or face devastating attacks on its civilian infrastructure.
Market reaction was swift and dramatic, with U.S. crude futures down around 15% to $96.31 a barrel, while Brent futures also slid 13% to $94.71 per barrel.
S&P 500 futures rose 2.5%, while European futures leapt more than 5%. U.S. Treasuries rallied while futures for German bunds and French OATs surged.
The U.S. dollar fell broadly, having been the haven of choice during the tumult.
In Asia, Japan’s Nikkei jumped about 5% while South Korea’s KOSPI vaulted 6%, triggering a brief halt in trading. That left the MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan up 4%.
“When you factor in that the two-week delay is longer than the original 10-day window set for the initial attack, it seems plausible that the worst of the conflict may now be behind us,” said Matt Simpson, a senior market analyst at StoneX.
“Markets can worry about the complexities later. For now, they’ve been given the green light to rally.”
Two weeks of relief
The six-week conflict had sent oil prices soaring, reignited inflation fears and thrown the global rates outlook into disarray, forcing governments and companies to scramble for cover against a sudden energy shock.
Trump’s social media announcement on the cease-fire marked an abrupt reversal from hours earlier, when he issued an extraordinary warning that “a whole civilization will die tonight” unless his demands were met.
Beyond the immediate relief, investors remain keen to see whether the cease-fire leads to a broader resolution before placing major bets.
“Does it mean people are going to take new risks? No, it doesn’t,” said Martin Whetton, head of financial markets strategy at Westpac. “It would have to actually be a lasting peace (to change things). People aren’t actually taking risk.”
Gold prices climbed 2.5% to $4,820 per ounce.
In currencies, the risk-sensitive Australian dollar rose 1.4% to $0.7074, and the euro gained 0.8% to $1.1687.
The dollar index eased to 98.835, hovering near a one-month low.
Meanwhile, New Zealand’s central bank kept its policy rate unchanged, as expected, buying time to assess the fallout from the war but signalling it would act decisively if inflation heats up.
The comments underscore the challenge facing global central banks as the energy price and supply chain shocks from the war take time to normalize, leaving price pressures intact.
Some analysts are also sceptical that the cease-fire will translate into lasting peace, warning of likely twists and turns ahead.
Carol Kong, a currency strategist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia, said the conflict’s root causes remain unresolved, keeping the risk of re-escalation firmly intact.
“We maintain our view that the war will run into June. The implication is dollar losses may prove short-lived.”
U.S. Treasuries surged after the announcement, with traders putting the prospect of rate cuts from the Federal Reserve later in the year back on the table, although doubts about whether oil prices will go back to pre-war levels kept enthusiasm in check.
The yield on the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note dropped 10 basis points to 4.241%, the lowest since mid-March. The yield on monetary policy-sensitive U.S. two-year Treasury notes sank 10.7 bps to 3.725%.
Resident doctors in England started a six-day walkout on Tuesday after rejecting an offer the government said would not get better, with the British Medical Association (BMA) saying it failed to reverse years of pay erosion and staffing pressures.
The strike action during the Easter holiday period is 15th stoppage in just over three years. It is due to run until the morning of April 13 after a 48-hour ultimatum from Prime Minister Keir Starmer passed without agreement.
The government has now withdrawn a pledge to fund 1,000 additional specialty training posts that it said had been contingent on the deal being accepted.
Health Minister Wes Streeting said the government was not prepared to spend money needed for patient services on a settlement it viewed as unaffordable, estimating the strike would cost the health service about 50 million pounds ($66 million) a day, or 300 million pounds over the six-day walkout.
Speaking on Times Radio on Tuesday, Streeting said resident doctors had secured the largest pay uplift of any public sector group under the Labour government, but had rejected the offer without putting forward a counter proposal.
Streeting had said that the offer “doesn’t get better than this” when urging the union to reconsider last month.
The BMA represents about 55,000 of the resident doctors – formerly known as junior doctors – who make up nearly half of the medical workforce.
Long-term pay erosion
Since early 2023 the BMA has held more than a dozen rounds of industrial action over pay, strike action that successive governments has blamed for frustrating efforts to reduce waiting lists in the state-run service.
The union says the government’s offer on pay and workforce does not go far enough to address long-standing concerns, including historical below-inflation pay increases.
The pay offer includes a 3.5% increase this year, which the government said would represent an above-inflation rise, and take total pay increases over three years to around 35%, plus reimbursements of mandatory exam fees, which can cost doctors thousands of pounds.
Jack Fletcher, chair of the BMA’s resident doctors’ committee, has said the union was concerned the level of investment in the deal had been reduced, the proposed reforms were spread over several years, and uncertainties remained over the implementation of new training posts.
Fletcher said the government’s threat to withdraw parts of the deal had also undermined confidence.
“No one wants to strike. But without a credible offer on the table, doctors are left with no alternative,” the BMA said in a post on the social media platform X on Tuesday.
Türkiye and Syria eye lifting their bilateral trade volume to $5 billion (TL 222.99 billion) and then to the target of $10 billion, a top official said on Tuesday amid comprehensive talks between officials from the two nations in Istanbul.
“We have discussed all kinds of solutions and mechanisms, including a free trade agreement, to firstly increase our bilateral trade, which reached $3.7 billion last year, to $5 billion and then to the target of $10 billion,” Trade Minister Ömer Bolat said during the bilateral talks and first meeting of the Türkiye-Syria Joint Economic and Trade Committee (JETCO).
The meeting was also attended by his counterpart, Syrian Minister of Economy and Industry Nidal al-Shaar.
As part of the first JETCO meeting, the two sides also signed a protocol, which Bolat said was “not only a technical document” but constituted “a comprehensive road map for economic integration, regional development and the reconstruction process between two neighboring and brotherly countries.”
Ankara and Damascus have enjoyed a positive momentum in ties since the ouster of Syria’s long-time ruler, Bashar Assad, in December 2024.
After the bilateral meeting, the first meeting of the Türkiye-Syria Joint Economic and Trade Committee was held with the participation of Bolat and al-Shaar, as well as delegations and business representatives from both countries.
Bolat noted that a historic turning point in economic and trade relations between Türkiye and Syria was witnessed in Istanbul and stated that they have successfully completed the first session of JETCO, which they signed in Ankara on Aug. 5 last year, on the basis of great success and mutual trust.
“While deciding to deepen our cooperation in strategic sectors such as textiles, agriculture, food and machinery, we also agreed to share information on regulatory frameworks to ensure predictability in agricultural trade,” he said.
“Additionally, we are very pleased that the Türkiye-Syria Business and Investment Forum to be held on the sidelines of this meeting will bring together leading companies and investors from both countries,” he added, referring to the forum that was set to take place later in the day.
Regional supply chains
Moreover, Bolat touched upon “the recent hardships and hot wars experienced in the region and in the world,” and noted that they attach great importance to carrying out foreign trade, which plays a central role in Türkiye’s growth and development, without interruption and through multiple alternatives.
The minister also noted that one of the key issues in their meetings with his Syrian counterpart was customs gates.
“The full-capacity operation of our customs gates, the uninterrupted operation of logistics lines, is of vital importance for the stability of the regional supply chain,” he suggested.
Additionally, he said that it was of “great importance” that transit corridors between Türkiye, Syria, Jordan, Saudi Arabia and Iraq operate quickly and efficiently to meet the supply needs of the Middle East and Gulf countries seamlessly amid the current war conditions in the Gulf region.
“As the governments of both sides, we attach great importance to the effective and rapid operation of transportation corridors and transit trade corridors both from Türkiye to Syria and then to Jordan and Saudi Arabia, as well as from Türkiye to Syria, Iraq, and Saudi Arabia,” he said.
At the same time, he said, “We will work closely together on making customs crossings fully operational, reducing the need for transshipment, and developing mechanisms for direct delivery.”
The minister also underscored the importance of Syria’s unity and integrity, adding that accelerating its economic recovery and advancing the reconstruction process are among the top agenda items for the Turkish business world.
Al-Shaar, for his part, also stated that they have started to work with Türkiye on a solid and positive basis, and that cooperation continues in economic, cultural and social areas.
Al-Shaar expressed that they have started a new era of cooperation that will be in the interests of both countries. “We are truly establishing this cooperation on very strong foundations. We are determined to use all economic possibilities in the best way possible for both countries.”
Türkiye, Jordan and Syria signed a trilateral memorandum of understanding on transport cooperation on Tuesday, aiming to strengthen regional connectivity and boost trade across a key North-South corridor.
Transport and Infrastructure Minister Abdulkadir Uraloğlu, speaking after a meeting in Amman with his Jordanian counterpart Nidal Qatamin and Syrian Transport Minister Yarub Badr, said the initiative reflects a shared commitment to regional development and prosperity.
“This is not merely a technical meeting on transport, but a strong declaration of will for the welfare of our peoples and regional development,” Uraloğlu said, emphasizing the importance of political and economic stability supported by efficient logistics.
He noted that activating the Türkiye-Syria-Jordan axis at full capacity would significantly increase export potential and transit revenues for all three countries, creating a multiplier effect for regional economies.
Uraloğlu highlighted the strategic importance of establishing a fully functional North-South transport corridor, supported by modernized road and rail infrastructure. He also underscored the need to reduce transit fees, taxes and additional costs to facilitate smoother cross-border transportation.
The minister said that the trilateral mechanism would help remove barriers facing transport operators, expand opportunities in rail transport and revitalize ports, ultimately contributing to sustainable trade growth.
Referring to historical ties, Uraloğlu highlighted the symbolic and practical importance of reviving the Hejaz Railway – originally built by Ottoman Sultan Abdulhamid II and inaugurated in 1908 to link Istanbul with Mecca, Medina, Yemen and Damascus – in line with modern standards, while also prioritizing the development of new rail connections among the three countries.
He further pointed to the integration of maritime routes, noting that Türkiye and Syria’s Mediterranean port capacity, combined with Jordan’s strategic access to the Red Sea via the Gulf of Aqaba, should be evaluated as a unified logistics network.
“Aqaba Port can serve as a land-sea bridge, transporting goods arriving from the north to the Red Sea and beyond,” he said.
Uraloğlu added that technical delegations are expected to visit Saudi Arabia next week as part of broader efforts to extend connectivity across the Arabian Peninsula and link it to Central Asia and Europe.
Turkish FM discusses cease-fire with Iranian, Qatari counterparts
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Turkish FM discusses cease-fire with Iranian, Qatari counterparts
Europa League quarters ignite as contenders balance form, pressure
Minister Gürlek received the members of the Turkish Grand National Assembly investigation commission on children dragged into crime.
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