Economy
Starbucks under pressure as more chains vie for US coffee market
Even as consumption of coffee among Americans remains at historic highs, fewer of them are getting it from Starbucks.
The company that revolutionized the country’s coffee culture remains America’s biggest player, with nearly 17,000 U.S. stores and plans to open hundreds more. But it’s facing unprecedented competition, which will make it harder to win back the customers it already lost.
Starbucks’ share of spending at all U.S. coffee shops fell in 2024 and 2025; it now stands at 48%, down from 52% in 2023, according to Technomic, a food industry consulting firm. Dunkin’, a perennial rival that just opened its 10,000th U.S. store, gained market share in both of those years.
Starbucks has other challengers, like the fast-growing drive-thru chains 7 Brew, Scooter’s Coffee and Dutch Bros. Chinese chains like Luckin Coffee and Mixue are opening U.S. stores. High-end coffee shop Blue Bottle, which has 78 U.S. stores, has opened two more since the start of the year. Even McDonald’s and Taco Bell are bolstering their beverage offerings.
‘Experimenting with other coffees’
“People haven’t fallen out of love with Starbucks, but they’re now polyamorous in their coffee choices,” said Chris Kayes, chair of the management department in the George Washington University School of Business. “People are now experimenting with other coffees, and they’re seeing what’s out there.”
Americans love coffee. In both 2024 and 2025, an estimated 66% of Americans reported drinking coffee every day, up from 62% in 2020, according to the National Coffee Association, an industry trade group.
Coffee chains are racing to cash in on that demand. The number of chain coffee stores in the U.S. jumped 19% to more than 34,500 over the last six years, according to Technomic, a consulting firm that researches the foodservice industry.
Seattle-based Starbucks was a small, regional chain when former-CEO Howard Schultz acquired it in 1987. Now, other small chains are seeing explosive growth. Nebraska-based Scooter’s Coffee had 200 locations in 2019; it now has more than 850. Arkansas-based 7 Brew, which had 14 locations in 2019, now has more than 600.
“There’s too much supply relative to demand,” said Neil Saunders, a managing director and retail analyst at consulting firm GlobalData Retail
Saunders said Starbucks’ size is somewhat of a disadvantage, since it has less ability to grow sales by opening new locations.
“Honestly, they’re pretty saturated,” Saunders said. “They’re a very mature business.”
Starbucks is undaunted. At a conference for investors on Thursday, the company said an ongoing effort to improve service while making stores warmer and more welcoming was boosting U.S. store traffic. It plans to add 25,000 seats to its U.S. cafes by this fall.
“Growth doesn’t require us to become something new. It requires us to be exceptionally good at what we already are,” Starbucks Chief Operating Officer Mike Grams said.
Starbucks expects to open more than 575 new U.S. stores over the next three years. It developed a smaller-format store that is cheaper to build but still has indoor seating, drive-thru lanes and mobile pickup. The company said the reduced scale would allow Starbucks stores to operate in locations they couldn’t before.
Menu innovations, competition
Starbucks is also adding new products, like updated pastries and snackable foods that are high in protein and fiber, to try to win back customers.
Lack of menu innovation is one reason Starbucks has struggled, especially among younger consumers who like novelty and will try new places to find it, Saunders said.
Arizona-based Dutch Bros, for example, added protein coffee drinks in January 2024, nearly two years before Starbucks did. Energy drinks make up 25% of Dutch Bros’ business almost 14 years after the chain introduced them. Starbucks offered iced energy drinks for a limited time in 2024; executives said Thursday that customizable energy drinks would appear on the Starbucks menu soon.
Dutch Bros, which is led by former Starbucks executive Christine Barone, has just over 1,000 shops in the U.S. and hopes to double that number by 2029. It’s betting that customers want speed and convenience; nearly all of its stores are drive-thrus with walk-up windows.
Dutch Bros also focuses on value. In a recent meeting with investors, Barone pointed out that Dutch Bros’ medium drinks are 24 ounces; at Starbucks, a medium drink is 16 ounces.
Luckin, whose app brims with coupons and promotions, is also value-oriented. On a recent afternoon, one of its nine New York stores buzzed with customers picking up mobile orders. The tiny shop had no seating.
Xunyi Xie, who was visiting New York from his home in Delaware, said he stopped by to try a Velvet Latte because Luckin had a $1.99 drink promotion. Xie said he normally brews his own espresso, but if Luckin opened a store that was on his way to work, he would go there.
As for Starbucks? “I think it’s overpriced,” Xie said.
In 2024, the average customer spent $9.34 at Starbucks, compared to $8.44 at Dutch Bros and $4.68 at Dunkin’, according to an analysis by the investment research company Morningstar.
Starbucks didn’t raise prices in its 2025 fiscal year and has vowed to be judicious about future increases. But Ari Felhandler, an equity analyst with Morningstar, said it would be a mistake for Starbucks to try to win over customers with discounts because competitors will always go lower.
“Keep your prices the same and try to justify them,” Felhandler said. He thinks Starbucks’ store redesigns and new menu items will bring back traffic.
Grams, Starbucks’ chief operating officer, said the company firmly believes its best way forward is not drive-thru-only stores or mobile pickup kiosks. It’s building cafes with comfortable seating or the “soul of Starbucks,” as he put it, that also serve mobile, drive-thru and delivery customers. Customers sometimes want something convenient, and they sometimes want to dwell, he said.
“There’s always going to be competition. We’re aware of it, we keep an eye on it for sure, but we don’t try to be them,” Grams told The Associated Press (AP). “We offer something that most people don’t, which is a legitimate space to sit down, enjoy and use it for a variety of different reasons.”
But Kayes, of George Washington University, wonders if that strategy will be enough to keep Starbucks on top, or if customers who want a cozy or premium experience have already moved on to independent coffee shops or upscale chains like Blue Bottle.
“In some ways, I think they are a victim of their own success,” Kayes said. “I do think that the aura of Starbucks as being something special and unique and exciting isn’t there anymore.”
The self-declared breakaway region of Somaliland expects to finalize a trade agreement with Israel soon and is willing to grant access to valuable mineral deposits as part of the deal, its leader said on Tuesday.
In late December, Israel became the first country to recognize the so-called Republic of Somaliland, a northeastern part of Somalia that has claimed independence for decades.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has said Israel would seek immediate cooperation in agriculture, health, technology and the economy.
Somaliland leader Abdirahman Mohamed Abdullahi said no bilateral economic deal with Israel had yet been reached, but Somaliland expected to sign “a partnership agreement.”
“At the moment, there is no trade, and there is no investment from Israel. But we are hoping 100% (for) their investment, their trade and hopefully we will engage with the businesspeople and the government of Israel soon,” he told Reuters via video link.
“Somaliland is a very rich country in resources – minerals, oil, gas, marine, in agriculture, energy and other sectors. … We have meat, we have fish, we have minerals, and they (Israel) need them. So trade can start from these main sectors,” he said. “The sky is the limit.”
He said in return, Somaliland would seek access to Israeli technology.
Somaliland says its mineral resources include vast reserves of lithium, critical for batteries and electric vehicles. In 2024, the Saudi Mining Company Kilomass secured an exploration deal there for lithium and other critical minerals.
Abdullahi said he was grateful to Israel for being the first to recognize Somaliland. While Somaliland also hopes for future military cooperation with Israel, he said establishing Israeli military bases had not been discussed.
He said he had accepted an invitation from Netanyahu and would visit Israel soon, but no date had yet been set. Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Saar visited Somaliland a month ago.
Abdullahi said he expects all United Nations countries eventually to follow Israel’s lead, including the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and the United States, though he said it was normal for recognition to take time.
He said he had a good working relationship with the U.S. and believes President Donald Trump will “someday” recognize Somaliland. Last month, he pitched investment deals at a dinner in Davos attended by Trump’s son Eric.
Israel’s decision to recognize Somaliland has drawn an angry response from Somalia, and has also been criticized by Türkye, China, Egypt and the African Union.
Somaliland also cooperates with the UAE, with DP World a big investor in the Berbera port. The UAE has “not decided officially yet, but they are just one of the countries we expect to recognize Somaliland,” Abdullahi said.
“We also expect that the Saudi government will make the same investment in Somaliland,” he said.
Novo Nordisk’s shares slumped as much as 20% early on Wednesday as the Danish obesity drug giant warned it would face “unprecedented” price pressures this year, shocking the market with guidance for a sharp sales decline this year.
Wegovy maker Novo warned late on Tuesday that profits and sales could drop as much as 13% this year, the first declines in years, as U.S. President Donald Trump’s drive to cut drug costs adds to pressure from fierce competition in the weight-loss market.
“Our 2026 guidance reflects a year of unprecedented pricing pressure,” CEO Mike Doustdar told journalists on a call, adding he hoped that the “painful” impact on Novo’s finances in the short-term would hopefully be an “investment for our future.”
Novo said that there were now far more companies looking to break into the obesity drug market and that it could not promise a return to the “extraordinary growth rates” of recent years.
The share price plunge, which sparked a wider slide in other obesity drugmakers, took Novo’s stock to the lowest level since early December, overturning a promising start to the year as it had rallied on strong sales of the new Wegovy pill.
“Novo has provided shocking guidance for 2026,” said Markus Manns, a portfolio manager at Union Investment that holds Novo and Eli Lilly shares, adding most investors had expected a mid-single-digit decline in sales and profit.
“Nobody had a double-digit profit decline on the agenda.”
Pill sales offer ‘glimpse of hope’
Novo is selling lower doses of its daily pill in the U.S. for $149 per month for self-paying patients, rising to $199 in April. Lilly plans to cap higher doses of its obesity pill, if approved, at $399 a month for repeat cash buyers.
Both companies have reduced prices of their injectables for customers paying in cash rather than using health insurance. Novo began selling its Wegovy injection at $349 a month to cash payers in November.
Novo said it expects adjusted operating profit and adjusted sales at constant exchange rates to both fall by between 5% and 13% this year. Sales rose 10% last year, and analysts had, on average, forecast a 2% decline this year, according to a poll gathered by the company.
The firm said its outlook was hit by lower realised prices, especially in the U.S., fierce competition, and the expiry of patents on semaglutide – the active ingredient in its Wegovy and Ozempic drugs – in some markets outside the United States.
It is also facing a challenge from the so-called compounding of copycat drugs, with as many as 1.5 million Americans using compounded versions of GLP-1 weight-loss medications.
Barclays said in a note that the guidance was worse than expected, which would hit the shares “significantly” on Wednesday, although they could gain some reprieve if investors consider the guidance “conservative.”
“We expect bulls to suggest this NOVOB guide is a ‘kitchen sink’ that will be beaten, though we note the same was said last year, and this proved not to be the case,” Barclays said, adding the other key positive was the performance of the Wegovy pill.
Novo said weekly prescriptions for oral Wegovy hit around 50,000 by Jan. 23, well above the 20,000 per week from market tracking data that does not capture sales via cash-pay channels such as NovoCare and telehealth services.
Union Investment’s Manns agreed that the strong pill sales, with consumers seemingly willing to pay out of their own pockets, offered “a glimpse of hope.”
Novo’s warning ends a yearslong run of double-digit percentage gains in profits and sales since the launch of Wegovy in June 2021, which ignited a boom in demand for obesity drugs and meteoric growth for the Danish company.
In 2024, it was Europe’s most valuable listed company, worth $600 billion. On Wednesday, it was valued at around $259 billion.
Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi should not count so much on the Bank of Japan’s (BOJ) help in taming sharp bond yield rises, given the huge cost of intervention, including the significant risk of igniting unwelcome yen falls, Reuters reported on Wednesday, citing sources.
Japanese government bonds (JGB) went into free fall last month, sowing turmoil in global debt markets, after Takaichi called a snap election and pledged to suspend a food levy for two years, stoking fears that increased fiscal spending would add to the nation’s already huge debt pile.
Super-long bond yields rocketed to record highs in a rout reminiscent of the “Truss” shock in 2022, when then-British Prime Minister Liz Truss’ announcement of large, unfunded tax cuts triggered a collapse in gilts and a historic surge in yields.
Growing prospects that Takaichi’s party will score a landslide victory in the election on Sunday and secure a mandate for her expansionary fiscal policy have kept bond investors on edge amid concern over Japan’s worsening finances.
The volatility has raised alarm within the central bank, though three sources familiar with its thinking say the risks of intervention in the bond market at this stage outweigh the rewards.
Japanese policymakers face a tricky trade-off, having to keep sharp bond yield rises in check while seeking to prop up the ailing yen through threats of currency intervention.
The challenge puts the BOJ in a bind as any attempt to keep long-term interest rates low would conflict with its gradual rate-hike path, which it hopes would moderate inflationary pressures from a weak yen.
At a policy meeting on Jan. 22-23, one board member called for vigilance over a “one-sided steepening” of the yield curve, while another warned of high volatility, particularly for super-long JGBs, a summary of opinions showed.
BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda also escalated his warning by describing the pace of yield rises as “quite fast” and repeated the bank’s readiness to act in exceptional circumstances.
Threshold for intervention not met
While markets have regained a semblance of calm, the bond selloff has turned investors’ attention to whether the BOJ would come to the rescue in the event of a renewed rout after the election.
But the central bank sees recent market moves as falling short of meeting the very high threshold for intervention, say the sources, who spoke on condition of anonymity.
The BOJ has several tools at its disposal, such as conducting unscheduled, emergency bond-buying operations or tweaking the composition of bonds it buys under a quarterly purchase plan.
The last resort would be to suspend or altogether overhaul its bond taper program, which has been rolling since 2024.
The BOJ would step in only during a panic selloff driven by speculative trade, or a destabilizing move that requires the central bank to act as market maker of last resort, the sources said, adding that neither scenario had unfolded so far.
Any intervention would also be temporary, rather than a precursor to a sustained resumption of increased bond buying, to avoid setting a new line in the sand on bond prices, the sources said.
“If bonds are being sold on speculative trading, the BOJ could see scope to intervene. But it’s clear the recent rise in yields reflects market concern over Japan’s fiscal policy,” said former BOJ board member Takahide Kiuchi.
“It’s the government’s job, not the BOJ’s, to deal with the consequences of market distrust over fiscal policy.”
Ueda made the point clear, stressing that the BOJ and government stood ready to play “each of their roles” in dealing with market volatility, putting the onus on the government to deal with any fiscal-policy-induced rise in yields.
Calm before the storm?
The BOJ’s hesitance reflects the high cost of intervention.
Ramping up bond buying would roll back its efforts to reduce its huge balance sheet through a gradual tapering that began in 2024.
Stepping into the bond market would also drag the BOJ back into the bond yield-control policy it ditched in 2024, and risk unleashing a fresh bout of yen selling by giving markets the impression it was loosening policy again, analysts say.
A weak yen has become a headache for policymakers as it pushes up import costs and broader inflation. Japan is scrambling to lift the yen with rate checks and verbal warnings.
“Trying to push down bond yields would send a conflicting message to markets at a time the BOJ is raising its short-term policy rate,” said Mari Iwashita, executive rates strategist at Nomura Securities.
It also puts the BOJ’s credibility on the line by stoking fears it is bankrolling government debt, she said.
Some analysts see current conditions as the calm before the storm, with investor concern over Japan’s fiscal outlook making the JGB market vulnerable to abrupt, sharp selloffs.
Domestic life insurers, which were once stable buyers of super-long JGBs, are retreating to the sidelines and may even be forced to sell ahead of the March fiscal year-end, they say.
“I’m sure policymakers are extremely nervous about the bond market now,” said former BOJ official Nobuyasu Atago.
“The BOJ would need to act if markets go into a free fall, but stepping in at the wrong moment could amplify panic and make things worse,” he said. “Either way, it would be an extremely hard decision.”
Türkiye has mobilized close to $8.7 billion in external financing to fund rebuilding efforts and economic revitalization in its southeastern region following the devastating earthquakes almost three years ago.
The disaster early on Feb. 6, 2023, claimed more than 50,000 lives, impacted 11 southeastern provinces, razed hundreds of thousands of buildings and severely impacted the infrastructure.
Ever since, Turkish authorities have sought to channel funding to address what has been estimated to be an economic loss of $150 billion and to support long-term redevelopment across the affected provinces.
The Treasury and Finance Ministry has been working with international financial institutions, government lenders and commercial banks to secure long-term, low-cost financing for reconstruction efforts.
The funds are being directed toward the rebuilding and strengthening of schools, hospitals, housing, industrial facilities and urban infrastructure, while also supporting the real sector to preserve employment and ensure access to financing for businesses operating in the region.
Authorities said the financing aimed to prevent disruptions in credit access, support investment and meet liquidity needs, particularly for small and medium-sized enterprises and exporters.
Broad-based international financing
External funding has been secured across multiple sectors, including health care, agriculture, infrastructure and industry.
In 2023, the World Bank provided $990.8 million for projects implemented by the Health Ministry, the Environment, Urbanization and Climate Change Ministry, and the state lender Ilbank.
The lender also extended $450 million to the Small and Medium Enterprises Development and Support Administration (KOSGEB) to support the recovery and business continuity of SMEs.
The European Investment Bank approved $428.4 million in financing for Ilbank in the same year.
In 2024, the World Bank provided an additional $600 million for projects under the Industry and Technology Ministry and $241.4 million for Agriculture and Forestry Ministry projects.
The Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA) also extended $387.3 million in financing to support health care and urban reconstruction projects.
Total external financing secured in 2023-2024 exceeded $5 billion.
Funding momentum continued in 2025
Financing efforts continued in 2025 as Türkiye accelerated reconstruction and development initiatives.
The World Bank and the French Development Agency jointly provided 400 million euros ($472.28 million) in co-financing for rural housing renewal and reconstruction projects.
The funds were transferred to the Environment, Urbanization and Climate Change Ministry to support the renewal or reconstruction of approximately 2,800 rural homes in the affected areas.
As part of what the government dubbed “the largest reconstruction mobilization of the century,” more than 455,000 housing units and workplaces have been handed over to survivors in the region as of last month.
Under the Registered Employment Creation Project, the World Bank also provided $500 million to be channeled through the Development and Investment Bank of Türkiye (TKYB).
In addition, the Islamic Development Bank extended 200 million euros in long-term, low-cost financing in 2025 to support reconstruction and urban transportation projects in the quake zone.
Türkiye also launched the Disaster Reconstruction Fund in 2025 to accelerate rebuilding efforts. The fund secured 485 million euros in financing, led by Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank with support from Doğan Investment Bank.
Officials said external financing will continue to play a central role in restoring economic activity, rebuilding infrastructure and supporting sustainable growth in the earthquake-affected region.
U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) Governor Stephen Miran stepped down on Tuesday from his position as chair of the White House’s Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), ending a controversial arrangement where he held positions at both institutions.
President Donald Trump appointed Miran in September to a seat on the Fed’s seven-member board of governors after Adriana Kugler, who was appointed by former President Joe Biden, abruptly resigned.
The arrangement drew the ire of Democratic Senators who said it would make a presidential puppet of the Fed’s newest policymaker. Miran said he had been legally advised there was no need to quit his CEA post as the Fed job was only for a few months.
He completed his term, which ended Jan. 31. Yet he can remain on the Fed’s board until a replacement is confirmed by the Senate.
It is unusual for someone to keep a White House position while also serving as a Fed governor, a nonpartisan position. Previous presidents have appointed aides to the Fed, but for decades, they gave up their White House positions before joining the Fed. Miran took an unpaid leave of absence instead.
Miran said when he was named in September that he would step down from his position at the CEA if he remained on the Fed board after Jan. 31. Fed governors vote on interest rate decisions and bank regulatory policy.
“In accordance with the pledge he made to the Senate during his confirmation to the Federal Reserve’s Board of Governors, Stephen Miran has submitted his resignation from the Council of Economic Advisers,” White House spokesman Kush Desai said late on Tuesday.
The move underscores the intrigue around the Fed and its upcoming personnel changes. Trump has nominated Kevin Warsh, a former Fed official, to replace current Fed Chair Jerome Powell, whose term atop the central bank ends May 15.
Yet Powell could, under a quirk in the Fed’s structure, remain on the board after his term as chair ends and deny Trump the opportunity to fill another seat. Many observers, as a result, expect Warsh to take Miran’s seat and then be elevated to replace Powell in May, but that sequence of events hasn’t yet been confirmed.
The White House had no immediate comment on whether Pierre Yared, now the CEA’s acting chair, would be named to the top post permanently.
Miran has argued for sharply lower interest rates at every Fed meeting since he joined the central bank. Trump has made no secret of his desire for the Fed to reduce interest rates, and indeed made support for easier monetary policy one of his criteria for a new Fed chief.
Powell disclosed in January that the Department of Justice (DOJ) had launched a criminal probe into statements he made to the Senate about Fed building renovations. He has described the investigation as part of a broader effort by the administration to exert control over the Fed.
The DOJ last year also opened an investigation into Fed Governor Lisa Cook for alleged misstatements on her mortgage application. She denies wrongdoing and is suing to stop Trump’s attempt to fire her in a case that is before the Supreme Court.
A majority of the Senate Banking Committee, including all its Democratic members and one of its Republican members, have decried the DOJ’s investigation of Powell as political intimidation and have said they oppose moving forward on Warsh’s nomination while it is ongoing.
The U.S. House of Representatives on Tuesday narrowly approved a $1.2 trillion spending package to end the partial government shutdown, sending the bill to President Donald Trump while leaving lawmakers braced for a separate clash over funding for the Department of Homeland Security.
The vote was 217-214, and wraps up congressional work on 11 of the 12 annual appropriations bills, funding the vast majority of the government for the budget year ending Sept. 30. The last bill still to be worked out covers the Department of Homeland Security where Democrats are demanding more restrictions on enforcement operations.
Trump has said he will sign the bill when it reaches his desk.
Speaker Mike Johnson needed near-unanimous support from his Republican conference to proceed to a final vote. He narrowly got it during a procedural vote that was held open for nearly an hour as leaders worked to gain support from a handful of GOP lawmakers who were trying to advance other priorities unrelated to the funding measure.
“We have to work through individual members’ concerns. That’s the game here. It’s a consensus building operation. We do it every day,” Johnson said.
Trump had weighed in Monday in a social media post, calling on Republicans to stay united and telling holdouts “There can be NO CHANGES at this time.”
“We will work together in good faith to address the issues that have been raised, but we cannot have another long, pointless, and destructive Shutdown that will hurt our Country so badly – One that will not benefit Republicans or Democrats. I hope everyone will vote, YES!,” Trump wrote on his social media site.
The measure once signed will end the partial government shutdown that began Saturday. In addition to funding most of the federal government through Sept. 30, it includes a short-term funding patch for the Department of Homeland Security through Feb. 13 as lawmakers negotiate potential changes for the agency that enforces the nation’s immigration laws – U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement, or ICE.
The House had previously approved the final package of spending bills, but the Senate broke up that package so that more negotiations could take place for the Homeland Security funding bill. Democrats are demanding changes in response to events in Minneapolis, where two American citizens were shot and killed by federal agents.
Johnson said on Fox News Channel’s “Fox News Sunday” it was Trump’s “play call to do it this way. He had already conceded he wants to turn down the volume, so to speak.” But GOP leaders sounded as if they still had work to do in convincing the rank-and-file to join them as House lawmakers returned to the Capitol on Monday after a week back in their congressional districts.
“We always work till the midnight hour to get the votes,” said House Majority Leader Steve Scalise, R-La. “You never start the process with everybody on board. You work through it, and you could say that about every major bill we’ve passed.”
The path to the current partial shutdown differs from the fall impasse, which affected more agencies and lasted a record 43 days.
Then, the debate was over extending temporary coronavirus pandemic-era subsidies for those who get health coverage through the Affordable Care Act. Democrats were unsuccessful in getting those subsidies included as part of a package to end the shutdown.
Congress has made important progress since then, passing six of the 12 annual appropriations bills that fund federal agencies and programs. That includes important programs such as nutrition assistance and fully operating national parks and historic sites. They are funded through Sept. 30. The remaining bills passed Tuesday represent roughly three-quarters of federal spending set annually by Congress, including the Defense Department.
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