Economy
Türkiye, North Macedonia seek to more than double trade volume
Officials and businesspeople from Türkiye and North Macedonia gathered on Friday to address ways to boost their bilateral trade volume and evaluate new investment opportunities.
Trade Minister Ömer Bolat said the deep-rooted bonds between the two friendly nations enabled them to build a strong economic partnership.
That was echoed by North Macedonian Prime Minister Hristijan Mickoski, who said Türkiye was one of the first countries to recognize his country’s independence in 1991, adding that political friendship should translate into concrete economic cooperation.
Bolat said the trade between the two countries had reached $886 million (TL 40.98 billion) as of the end of 2025.
“We are moving step-by-step toward our common goal of a $2 billion bilateral trade volume,” Bolat told the Türkiye-North Macedonia Business Forum in Istanbul.
He pointed out that Turkish contracting companies have successfully completed 45 projects worth $2 billion in North Macedonia so far.
The minister expressed that around 1,000 Turkish companies provided employment in various sectors, including services, banking, and manufacturing.
Bolat underlined that Turkish state lender Halkbank maintains a strong position in the Balkan country with 49 branches and 800 employees.
He added that officials continued negotiations to modernize the free trade agreement to cover e-commerce and services sectors.
The minister also noted that Turkish contractors stood ready to take part in the EU Growth Plan projects allocated for North Macedonia.
Doors open for Turkish investors
Also addressing the forum, Mickoski invited Turkish businesspeople to invest in his country.
“The doors are open, the opportunities are real, and we can build the future together,” Mickoski said.
Pointing out that more than 1 million citizens in Türkiye had roots in North Macedonia, he said he wanted them to see the country as a tangible opportunity for the future.
“There are few countries in the world that can boast of such deep human ties as exist between both countries today,” he noted.
He highlighted the country’s geographical position as a natural gateway connecting the Middle East, Türkiye and Southeast Europe with the central part of the European continent.
He stated that Turkish firms could establish production facilities integrated into the European supply chain and place their products on European markets under exceptionally favorable conditions.
Mickoski stressed that his government implemented a series of reforms to improve the business climate, reduce administrative procedures and digitize public services.
He said: “My country is emerging as a country that offers stability, predictability and exceptionally favorable conditions for business development.”
He mentioned that North Macedonia ranked as one of the most competitive business destinations in the Western Balkans region today.
Noting that many Turkish companies already operate successfully in various industries within the country, he said new investors would enter a familiar environment with an established business ecosystem.
Mickoski underscored that North Macedonia featured a young, educated workforce, a stable financial system, and modern technological development zones ready to support foreign capital.
He revealed that the government has prepared a National Development Strategy that spans until 2044 in partnership with the U.N. Development Programme.
The strategy identified 13 key areas with the greatest potential for growth, aiming to transform the country into a regional hub for production, logistics, modern technologies and energy.
The prime minister asserted that the government aimed to build an economy that competed through quality, innovation and productivity rather than low costs.
Mickoski invited Turkish businesspeople to take advantage of the strong political will and dynamic economic conditions to build a successful future together.
“Our goal is not just to attract investment; our goal is to build a long-term partnership that will create value for both partners,” he added.
Transport corridors
At the forum, officials also evaluated infrastructure investments and strategic partnerships in transportation corridors.
Transport and Infrastructure Minister Abdulkadir Uraloğlu said historical ties between Türkiye and North Macedonia reach higher levels day-by-day.
He stressed that the wars around Türkiye’s region have caused critical warnings regarding the urgent need to develop numerous alternatives for transport corridors.
Türkiye has made a $355 billion investment in infrastructure, specifically transportation infrastructure, over the past 23 years.
“We estimate that this will contribute $2 trillion to the national economy over the next 10 years. Through this initiative, we are also contributing to the employment of 1.2 million people annually,” Uraloğlu noted.
He said the cooperation agreement between the Turkish State Railways and the North Macedonian Railway Infrastructure Agency (PERI) will significantly contribute to enhancing the two countries’ mutual cooperation.
“We are situated at a highly strategic point connecting Europe and Asia; therefore, we are gradually increasing these transit points day by day,” he said.
Uraloğlu noted that for the planned railway line passing through the Yavuz Sultan Selim Bridge in Istanbul, Türkiye secured a loan of $6.75 billion from six international institutions led by the World Bank.
He added: “We are also working on a corridor originating from the Gulf region, the Development Road Corridor.
“If we had completed this corridor today, we wouldn’t have had the Strait of Hormuz dominate the global agenda to such an extent due to traffic from Iraq.”
He also said Türkiye is ready for all forms of cooperation with North Macedonia, and it is ready to share all its expertise.
EU growth plan provides new financial instruments
North Macedonia’s Minister of European Affairs Bekim Sali stated that Turkish companies have a significant presence in North Macedonia and contributed greatly to the development of industry and infrastructure.
Sali emphasized that the government remains committed to creating a stable, predictable and competitive business environment that encourages investment.
He expressed that the European Union growth plan provides new financial instruments aimed at accelerating economic convergence with the bloc.
The minister underlined that the eighth and 10th corridors represent economic growth, mobility and regional integration projects rather than just transportation routes.
Sali invited Turkish companies to actively explore opportunities in renewable energy, green transition manufacturing and digitalization.
Confidence in North Macedonian economy
North Macedonia’s Minister of Foreign Affairs and Foreign Trade Timcho Mucunski said the two countries maintain a strategic partnership based on mutual respect and political trust.
Mucunski stated that the presence of more than three 1,000 Turkish companies in the country showed a clear expression of confidence in the North Macedonian economy.
The minister noted that the bilateral trade volume reaching nearly $1 billion last year represented only the beginning of their economic goals.
He expressed that the government integrated foreign trade into the portfolio of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs to put economic diplomacy at the heart of foreign policy.
Mucunski emphasized that the real measure of success would be the partnerships that the companies would establish and the contracts to be concluded.
Important market for Turkish contractors
Foreign Economic Relations Board (DEIK) Chair Nail Olpak announced that Turkish businesspeople aim to double the trade volume between Türkiye and North Macedonia.
Olpak stated that North Macedonia’s position along 10 European corridors carries great importance for Turkish construction companies and logistics firms.
He expressed that Türkiye’s expertise in solar, wind, and energy efficiency adds value to North Macedonia’s renewable energy goals.
He mentioned that the business community needs to overcome limited financial opportunities and shortages of skilled labor to expand investments.
Olpak called for more focus on sectoral diversification to deepen the existing economic relations between the two countries.
Structural commitments
United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) Deputy Regional Director Nick Hartmann emphasized that sustainable development goals required private sector investments rather than just public funds.
He stated that North Macedonia’s national development strategy for the next 20 years included structural commitments to build investor confidence.
Hartmann expressed that they created an investor map to connect national priorities with global goals.
He added that this map aimed to mobilize capital by providing concrete data on risk profiles and return potential to international partners.
Economy
Germany praises electrification goal proposed by Türkiye ahead of COP31
Germany on Friday said progress was being made at the climate change conference in western Bonn, with a new target on the share of electricity in final energy demand set to be a key theme of the U.N.’s COP31 summit in Türkiye later this year.
Jochen Flasbarth, a junior minister in the German Environment Ministry, said the Turkish presidency of the next global climate change summit, set for November, is demonstrating that “it is determined to drive forward the implementation of the Paris Agreement.”
Flasbarth’s remarks came in the German city of Bonn, where thousands of climate negotiators gather this week and next to lay the groundwork for COP31, which will be held in the southern Antalya.
Bonn is where texts are drafted and differences are narrowed ahead of the decisions taken by political leaders at the U.N. climate conference. Türkiye will host the summit, while Australia will oversee the formal negotiations.
The summit is taking shape as war in the Middle East drives up energy and commodity prices and highlights the vulnerability of fossil-fuel-dependent economies to supply shortages.
Türkiye and Australia have encouraged countries to embrace renewable energy as a bulwark against unreliable energy imports.
As part of its preparations, Türkiye in Bonn proposed a global target for electricity to meet 35% of the world’s energy demand by 2035, aiming to cut fossil fuel consumption.
The aim would be to shift transport, heavy industries, and home heating away from running on oil, coal and gas, to instead use technologies like electric industrial furnaces, electric cars and heat pumps.
Other goals include halving growth in global waste by 2035 and increasing the global circular material use rate to at least 15%.
Germany’s Flasbarth told dpa that he “welcomes” that electrification in the transport, construction and industrial sectors, which he called “the backbone of a successful energy transition,” is increasingly a priority for COP31.
Currently, around 20% of the world’s total energy demand is met by electricity. The rest comes mostly from fossil fuels, plus around 10% produced by biofuels and waste.

The annual 10-day June Climate Meetings in Bonn, which are due to conclude next Thursday, are being attended this year by 6,500 delegates from governments, the scientific community, the business sector and civil society, representing almost all U.N. member states.
Flasbarth said the negotiations in Bonn show that “there remains a strong global commitment to genuinely curbing global warming.”
The electrification proposal “sends a strong signal for investment in grids, renewable energy and modern infrastructure,” he added. “It provides global guidance and thus predictability for businesses, investors and governments, and can further accelerate the energy transition.”
Environmental organizations have praised the target, with WWF global climate and policy head Fernanda de Carvalho saying the group “welcomes this electrification goal.”
“But for it to support delivery of the Paris Agreement, it must clearly accelerate the shift away from fossil fuels,” she warned. “More electricity alone is not the answer if it is still powered by coal, oil and gas. Developing countries will also need finance and technology support to make this transition fair and effective.”
On Tuesday, Murat Kurum, who will preside over the COP31 summit, said the aim was to protect families and businesses from volatile energy markets, and that Türkiye would seek to build a coalition of countries backing the commitment.
“We will also work closely with all countries, especially with developing economies, to help facilitate access to technical assistance, capacity-building, and financial support in line with this goal,” said Kurum, who is also Türkiye’s environment, urbanization and climate change minister.
The electricity target would be voluntary, rather than a formal deal requiring support from the nearly 200 countries set to take part in COP31.
The Iran war’s disruption to oil and gas markets is already speeding up electrification in some countries, with demand for electric vehicles surging in South Korea, Japan and Italy since the conflict began, as consumers seek to avoid higher prices at the petrol pump.
Electrification cuts greenhouse gas emissions by replacing direct fossil fuel use with electricity from low-carbon sources. Global electricity production is decarbonizing faster than any other sector of the economy.
Economy
Record SpaceX IPO turns Elon Musk into world’s first trillionaire
Few business leaders have been as deeply embedded in popular culture as Elon Musk, the ambitious entrepreneur who has become a central figure in internet culture and amassed a fortune that has just made him the world’s first trillionaire.
At a time when concerns about inequality are high and public attitudes toward the ultra-wealthy have soured, Musk has managed to retain a loyal following despite his stratospheric net worth and without the folksy persona that endeared other tycoons such as Warren Buffett to the masses.
While admirers view Musk’s no-filter style as part of his appeal, critics have accused him of wielding oligarch-like power, raised concerns about governance at his companies and objected to his increasingly partisan political interventions.
Still, SpaceX, the sprawling rocket, satellite and AI company that together with electric-car maker Tesla form the center of Musk’s empire, raised a record $75 billion in its initial public offering on Thursday, highlighting investor enthusiasm for his business ventures.
Prior to the share sale, Forbes pegged his net worth at roughly $780 billion, far ahead of the man next in line, Alphabet co-founder Larry Page.
“The second richest person has been hovering around $300 billion, so about less than one-third of what Musk can potentially be worth tomorrow,” said Matt Durot, deputy editor at Forbes Wealth. “And only one other person, (Oracle founder) Larry Ellison, has ever been worth $400 billion.”
Most of Musk’s wealth now rests with SpaceX, where he holds a stake worth roughly $866 billion.
Along with Tesla and the rest of his properties, his net worth will exceed $1.1 trillion when the stock begins trading on Friday, according to Reuters calculations based on company filings. The tally includes stock components that would vest over time.
Musk became a household name through Tesla and SpaceX before expanding his influence with the $44-billion acquisition of social media platform Twitter in 2022. The deal gave him a direct channel to hundreds of millions of users and made him a prominent voice on issues ranging from politics and immigration to government spending and free speech.
His move into politics, particularly his role in U.S. President Donald Trump’s Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) last year, has been among his most contentious ventures. The political fallout coincided with weakening Tesla sales in several international markets in 2025 as protests and consumer boycotts targeted the electric vehicle maker.
The Elon premium
Musk, 54, was born in Pretoria, South Africa, to a Canadian mother and South African father. He attended the University of Pennsylvania, graduating in 1997.
He took over as Tesla’s CEO in 2008 with the conviction that electric vehicles could combine high performance with software-driven features, helping redefine the global automotive industry. Some auto-industry watchers say Tesla’s success – and its trillion-dollar-plus market cap – helped prod traditional automakers to pivot to electric cars.
Many investors are betting he can repeat the feat in space and artificial intelligence. Yet SpaceX remains cash-hungry, and much of the company’s valuation rests on technologies that may take years or decades to become commercially viable.
Beyond Tesla and SpaceX, Musk has co-founded five other companies, including tunneling startup The Boring Company and brain implant maker Neuralink.
As CEO of Tesla, Musk has courted controversy and praise in equal measure. He is credited with turning Tesla into the world’s most valuable automaker. Executives at legacy automakers dismissed the threat for years, skeptical that a startup car company could figure out how to mass-produce electric vehicles profitably.
“He renewed the world’s respect for American ingenuity in automotive engineering,” said Bob Lutz, a former General Motors vice chairman.
At the same time, Tesla has faced legal challenges and shareholder concerns tied to its storied CEO, particularly his 2018 pay package, once worth $56 billion.
Musk’s influence has become so pervasive that market observers have dubbed the network of businesses around him the “Muskonomy.”
The phenomenon has given rise to what some investors call the “Elon premium,” a valuation boost driven as much by faith in Musk’s vision as by traditional financial metrics.
“Much like Tesla, SpaceX is a bet on Elon Musk,” said Matt Kennedy, senior strategist at Renaissance Capital, a provider of IPO-focused research and ETFs.
“A market cap of $1.5 trillion-$2 trillion would certainly throw all traditional valuation methodologies out the window, and is instead best characterized as the ‘Elon Musk premium.'”
‘Our Einstein’
The concentration of influence around a single entrepreneur has amplified concerns about corporate governance, conflicts of interest and the risks of tying company fortunes too closely to one individual.
Over the years, Musk has turned clashes with regulators, billionaires, short sellers, journalists and media organizations into recurring public battles that often unfolded on social media.
Musk’s alliance with Trump followed a familiar pattern. After helping bankroll Trump’s return to the White House and serving in a senior advisory role through the administration’s DOGE initiative, Musk became one of the president’s closest corporate allies.
The relationship later fractured amid disagreements over policy and spending, spilling into a public feud. Though the two have since struck a more conciliatory tone, their falling-out highlighted the increasingly blurred lines between Musk’s business empire and political ambitions.
Yet for many investors, concerns about Musk’s often unconventional behavior are outweighed by his track record of turning ambitious ideas into some of the world’s most valuable companies.
“Elon is the Edison of our time,” JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon said during a recent conversation with Musk.
The banker, a former adversary of Musk in a prolonged legal battle, has since become an admirer. Dimon told CNBC last year that the pair had “hugged it out,” and hailed Musk as “our Einstein.”
Economy
Türkiye says disinflation to get back on track after short delay
Türkiye’s disinflation process will get back on track after a delay of a few months, Treasury and Finance Minister Mehmet Şimşek said on Friday.
Şimşek also pledged to meet budget targets even as the government waives income with steps to cushion the impact of rising crude oil prices.
Türkiye’s disinflation has been tested by the energy prices that have been soaring due to the U.S.-Israel war on Iran, which effectively shut the key Strait of Hormuz to shipping.
In May, consumer prices in Türkiye increased 1.71% monthly and 32.61% annually, highlighting fallout from the conflict and focusing attention on the monetary policy outlook.
Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye (CBRT) Governor Fatih Karahan on Friday said price stability remains the top priority and that the disinflation process will continue despite recent geopolitical tensions.
Both Şimşek and Karahan were speaking at the General Assembly of the Banks Association of Türkiye (TBB) in Istanbul.
Their remarks came a day after the central bank left its key interest rate at 37%, as expected, holding steady for a third consecutive meeting, as it monitors the inflation impact of the Iran war.
Since the conflict started at the end of February, the CBRT has halted an easing cycle that began in late 2024 and taken other liquidity steps that pushed the overnight rate up to the 40% limit.
Karahan said policy tools and strong reserves provide the means to sustain disinflation, and that a rebalancing in domestic demand is expected to continue supporting the process.
The governor said the central bank will continue to monitor all factors affecting the inflation outlook.
Şimşek pledged continued fiscal policy support and structural reforms to bring inflation down to low single digits.
In its quarterly inflation report in May, the central bank raised its end-2026 interim inflation target to 24% from 16%, forecasting that the short-term inflationary effects of the Iran war would remain “pronounced.”
Şimşek forecasted a “manageable” current account deficit at 3% of gross domestic product (GDP) or lower by the end of the year.
He said the government’s budget deficit target will be reached despite the sliding fuel pricing mechanism, a step to limit the pass-through of crude oil prices to fuel pumps.
Karahan cited the latest policy measures, as he said loan growth is moving toward a more balanced path.
Strong reserves alongside policy tools act as buffers against geopolitical risks to disinflation, he noted.
Economy
SpaceX set for Wall Street debut after record $75 billion IPO
SpaceX is set to begin trading on Nasdaq on Friday after investors poured $75 billion into the world’s biggest IPO ever, betting that Elon Musk’s lofty space, communications and AI ambitions can justify a $1.77 trillion valuation.
The landmark listing cemented Musk’s status as the first trillionaire ever and propelled SpaceX into the ranks of the world’s most valuable companies – even though the firm posted a loss of nearly $5 billion last year and generated only a fraction of the revenue brought in by similarly valued tech giants.
The stock’s performance will be a test for the so-called “Musk premium,” which has been the force behind Tesla’s $1 trillion-plus valuation. It will also be closely watched for signals on investor appetite ahead of forthcoming IPOs for AI heavyweights Anthropic and OpenAI.
With SpaceX widely viewed as a dress rehearsal for a new generation of mega-listings, market participants will also be watching how smoothly the debut unfolds. Exchanges and underwriters are under pressure to demonstrate they can handle the listing’s extraordinary order volumes and avoid a repeat of the technical failures that marred Meta’s 2012 debut.
Shares will likely not trade until the middle of the trading day, as the exchange collects buy and sell orders and underwriters delay trading until supply and demand is balanced. SpaceX priced the IPO at $135 apiece and sold 555.56 million shares.
The record IPO is a culmination of Musk’s long-held ambitions in space and technology, and has stood out for rewriting Wall Street’s IPO playbook and drawing legions of retail investors into the market.
World’s largest IPO
At $75 billion raised, the deal’s proceeds more than doubled that of Saudi Aramco, the previous record-holder, in its 2019 listing. Its sale made SpaceX the first U.S. trillion-dollar debut and seventh-largest U.S. company by market capitalization.
Its valuation could rise further should underwriters exercise their right to sell additional shares, a decision typically made within 30 days after the offering.
Although SpaceX may have to wait for entry into the S&P 500, its expected fast-track inclusion in the Nasdaq 100 will soon make it a major holding for passive funds and ETFs that track the index, creating a fresh source of demand for its shares. It will take about a month before it gets added to that index under Nasdaq’s new fast-entry rules, as opposed to a typical wait of as much as a year.
Some analysts expect SpaceX’s debut to trigger a reshuffling of investor portfolios, creating selling pressure on other technology heavyweights as funds rotate into the stock.
The frenzied interest presents opportunity and peril, as some retail investors may chase the stock if they miss out on the IPO, said Jay Woods, chief market strategist at Freedom Capital Markets. SpaceX set aside 30% of the offering for retail investors to capitalize on Musk’s popularity with individuals who have helped drive massive gains in Tesla shares.
“Historically, those investors tend to be the most vulnerable if momentum reverses,” Woods said. “I think there will be better opportunities to enter this name down the road.”
A $28.5 trillion market opportunity
For all the excitement surrounding the IPO, determining what SpaceX is actually worth remains a difficult valuation exercise. SpaceX said its market opportunity spans $28.5 trillion, a figure it called the largest in human history.
With its leading position in space – the firm says its operation is responsible for more than four-fifths of the mass launched into orbit over the past three years – and revenues from Starlink, some investors said it has a strong foundation upon which to build.
John Belton, portfolio manager at Gabelli Funds, said the best comparable to SpaceX is Musk’s electric vehicle company Tesla, as each has an established business and “a moonshot opportunity on the other side.”
“For Tesla, that’s things like humanoid robotics and other future applications. For SpaceX, it’s the AI business,” he said.
The hurdles at its enormous valuation include efforts by rivals such as Jeff Bezos’ Blue Origin to accelerate the commercialization of space and pursue government contracts in a bid to unlock new markets beyond Earth. Morningstar analysts earlier this month said it is more fairly valued around $780 billion, less than half of its opening market cap.
“This is not a name you’re buying based on fundamentals. For me, the analogy is Amazon. This was a company that changed the way we live,” said Nancy Tengler, CEO and CIO of Laffer Tengler Investments.
“If the IPO comes out at $135 and the stock drops to $100, that’s not ideal, but it wouldn’t change our long-term view. We want to participate.”
Economy
EIB floats future collaboration with Türkiye on railway infrastructure
Railway infrastructure could be one of the areas in which a major European multilateral lender could cooperate with Türkiye, its senior official said, according to a transcript of an interview released on Thursday.
“Railway infrastructure could be one of the areas where we can contribute in the future,” said Robert de Groot, vice president of the European Investment Bank (EIB).
Answering questions posed by Anadolu Agency (AA) regarding the bank’s relations with Türkiye and its activities across the European Union, de Groot first evaluated the financing agreements the EIB has signed with the Türkiye Development and Investment Bank (TKYB) and Türk Eximbank.
The bank recently said it would provide 200 million euros (more than $230 million) to Türkiye to back investments in renewable energy, energy efficiency and sustainable industrial production.
Highlighting the importance of green energy and energy efficiency, which are the focus of the agreements, de Groot underscored that efficiency holds “a significant place” on the business agenda.
“Energy efficiency means reducing the need for energy, which we are to some extent dependent on today due to geopolitical developments, by consuming less. Companies are looking for ways to reduce their energy consumption and maximize the use of renewable energy. Therefore, whether in Türkiye or elsewhere in Europe, energy efficiency holds a significant place on the agenda of almost every businessperson you talk to,” he told AA.
De Groot also addressed the impact of the credit they provided in 2023 for the earthquake zone, sharing his observations from his visit to Hatay, one of the cities harshly impacted by powerful tremors that struck southeast Türkiye in February that year.
“People have suffered deeply and continue to do so. This has affected me profoundly. Nevertheless, their determination to rebuild Antakya and Hatay also impressed me,” he said.
“Rebuilding a city is not easy, and various challenges inevitably arise. However, I was pleased to see the progress in the work aiming to provide people with access to drinking water, a responsibility the EIB has undertaken.”
De Groot stated that he sees the visits they have made to Hatay, Ankara and Istanbul as the start of a new era in the relations between the EIB and Türkiye, hoping for a strong project pool to be formed quickly in this context.
Noting that their representation in Istanbul will work to determine new projects that the EIB can finance, de Groot spoke about future cooperation areas.
“I know that Türkiye has big plans to expand and modernize its railway infrastructure. Within the EU, we are working in the same area. We have significant expertise in this regard. Therefore, railway infrastructure could be one of the areas where we can contribute in the future,” he said.
EU defense push
De Groot also touched upon EIB’s activities across the EU, pointing to the need for EU countries to increase investments, especially in the defense sector, and the commitments of NATO countries to increase defense spending.
Telling that EU leaders have requested financial support from the EIB in the field of defense, De Groot said they continue to work in this direction.
“A significant portion of our financing to the EU is directed towards infrastructure, which has not been sufficiently invested in for many years,” he maintained.
De Groot stated: “We are investing in R&D efforts for new technologies. We are supporting the increase in production capacity of the defense industry in Europe. Additionally, we are trying to support SMEs involved in the supply chains of major European defense companies.”
Provided resources
Operating as the bank of the European Union, the EIB has been offering loans and technical support to thousands of projects in more than 160 countries since 1958, making it one of the largest multilateral development banks in the world.
The bank, which started its activities in Türkiye in 1965, has provided a total of 30.86 billion euros in financing for 263 projects in the country so far, primarily in areas such as transportation, urban infrastructure, climate action, energy, agriculture, and the development of the private sector, as per AA.
Notable agreements between the bank and Türkiye include a 400 million euro loan agreement signed to repair water and wastewater infrastructure in the region following the earthquakes centered in Kahramanmaraş on Feb. 6, 2023.
Additionally, two separate financing agreements totaling 200 million euros were signed in recent days from the bank’s resources. Thus, 100 million euros will be provided for sustainable industrial investments through TKYB, and 100 million euros will be available for green financing projects by Turkish exporters through Türk Eximbank.
Economy
Turkish central bank keeps rates steady, monitors conflict impact
The Turkish central bank kept its key policy rate unchanged at 37% on Thursday, holding steady for a third straight meeting as it monitors the inflation impact of the Iran war.
The Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye (CBRT) also cited that the underlying trend of inflation “decreased slightly in May,” while also suggesting that the first quarter data points “to a slowdown in economic activity and leading indicators suggest a continued weak course in domestic demand.”
“The underlying trend of inflation, which increased in April due in part to higher energy prices, following its rise in the first months of the year, decreased slightly in May,” the bank said following its closely watched Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting.
However, the bank warned that energy prices “remain volatile and elevated,” amid geopolitical developments and the resulting uncertainties.
Oil and gas prices have surged significantly since the start of the Iran conflict, with Brent crude briefly hitting peaks of nearly $120 a barrel. Following easing in recent weeks, the prices have spiked again in recent days amid the renewed risk of attacks between the U.S. and Iran.
Analysts were widely expecting the bank to keep the cautious approach and leave rates on hold this week. A smaller number of economists were forecasting a hike. In a Reuters poll, 12 of the 14 economists surveyed predicted no change to borrowing costs, while two forecast a rate hike.
The committee has also kept the central bank’s overnight lending rate and the overnight borrowing rate at 40% and 35.5%, respectively. The bank uses the rate corridor to adjust the cost of funding to the market when necessary without changing the benchmark rate.
Annual inflation in Türkiye edged up to 32.6% in May from 32.4% in April, official data showed last week.
Since the war started at the end of February, the CBRT has halted an easing cycle that began in late 2024 and taken other liquidity steps that pushed the lira overnight rate up to the 40% limit.
Impact ‘closely monitored’
The war-related surge in energy prices has weighed on import-heavy economies like Türkiye, although authorities have introduced measures to cushion its impact on consumers, mainly through a so-called “sliding scale” system that limited fuel prices.
In its quarterly inflation report in May, the central bank raised its end-2026 interim inflation target to 24% from 16%, forecasting that the short-term inflationary effects of the Iran war would remain “pronounced.”
“The impact of geopolitical developments on the inflation outlook through the cost channel, economic activity and expectations is closely monitored,” the bank also said.
“The tight monetary policy stance, which will be maintained until price stability is achieved, will strengthen the disinflation process through demand, exchange rate, and expectation channels,” it added.
It also reiterated that the committee “will determine the policy rate by taking into account realized and expected inflation and its underlying trend in a way to ensure the tightness required by the projected disinflation path in line with the interim targets.”
The bank also underscored its meeting-to-meeting approach and “focus on inflation outlook.”
The Turkish lira held steady at 46.1550 against the dollar after the announcement, while the main Istanbul share index was slightly higher.
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