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Türkiye’s economic growth holds up despite Iran war, tight policy

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Türkiye’s economy expanded at a moderate pace in the second quarter despite a sharp slowdown in domestic demand amid tight monetary policy and the Iran war impact, official data showed Monday.

Gross domestic product (GDP) grew 2.3% on an annual basis in the April-June period, the Turkish Statistical Institute (TurkStat) said. That compared with market forecasts ranging from 2.5% to 2.9%.

Treasury and ⁠Finance Minister Mehmet Şimşek said growth would rise after the “balanced” second quarter expansion, which he said came despite heightened geopolitical tensions and difficult global conditions.

“Thanks to progress in the disinflation process and more supportive global conditions, we expect growth to gradually increase in the coming period,” Şimşek said in a statement after the data.

GDP grew 1.1% from the previous quarter on a seasonally and calendar-adjusted basis, compared with a revised 0.3% in the previous three months, the data showed.

The strongest growth by activity was shown by agriculture, forestry and fishing, which expanded 13.3%, while information and communication grew 8.6%, the data showed.

Public administration, education, human health and social work activities expanded 4%. Value added increased 3.2% in other service activities, 2.4% in industry, and 2.1% each in financial and insurance activities and real estate.

Construction was the only major sector to contract, falling 1.9% from a year earlier.

At current prices, Türkiye’s GDP rose 36% year-over-year to TL 19.87 trillion ($438.35 billion) in the second quarter.

Şimşek said annualized GDP exceeded $1.7 trillion.

Household consumption, which accounts for more than two-thirds of the economy, increased 3.5% in the April-June period. That compared to 5.1% in the first quarter. The data showed government consumption declined 1.8%.

Gross fixed capital formation, a measure of investment, grew 0.6% from the same period last year.

Exports of goods and services fell 3.4% year-over-year, while imports decreased by a sharper 6.4%.

Şimşek said the annualized current-account deficit reached $38.9 billion in the second quarter, reflecting the impact of geopolitical developments on Türkiye’s trading partners and higher commodity prices, particularly energy.

The deficit remained at a sustainable 2.3% of GDP, he added.

Haluk Bürümcekçi from Bürümcekçi Research and Consultancy said there was an “increasingly evident loss of ⁠momentum in domestic demand.”

Bürümcekçi added that the “positive contribution from net external demand after six quarters suggests that the first signs of the ‘rebalancing among demand components,’ one of the key objectives of the economic program, have begun to emerge.”

External demand contributed 0.6 percentage points to second-quarter growth, while domestic demand shrank 1.3% quarter-over-quarter, economists ⁠said, noting that this was a disinflationary development.

Turkish annual consumer price inflation cooled to 31.75% in July. The decline in inflation had stalled following a sharp rise in energy prices caused by the Iran war.

The country’s central bank has held the benchmark one-week repo rate at 37% in the last four policy meetings as ⁠it monitors Middle East conflict fallout.

While tight monetary and fiscal policies implemented to balance domestic demand and combat high inflation put pressure on growth, the economy grew by 2.6% in the first ⁠quarter, according to revised figures.

Growth in 2025 was revised to 3.7% from 3.6%.

GDP at current prices increased 41.6% to TL 63.24 trillion last year, while GDP per capita stood at TL 714,682, or $18,103.

The government’s current medium-term program projected growth of 3.8% in 2026. A new medium-term program will be announced next week.

Şimşek said the 2027-2029 road map would focus on achieving price stability, strengthening Türkiye’s growth potential through technological transformation and productivity gains and securing lasting improvements in living standards

Şimşek said the budget continued to perform positively despite the government foregoing significant tax revenue through its fuel-price adjustment mechanism launched in March to limit the impact of the Iran war.

The so-called sliding-scale system allowed reductions in the special consumption tax (ÖTV) to offset increases in global oil prices and limit their impact on domestic fuel prices and inflation.

Gross external debt remained broadly stable at 31.6% of GDP in the second quarter, Şimşek said.

Türkiye’s total debt-to-GDP ratio stood at 91%, well below the average of 229% for emerging markets and 306% globally, he added.

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India uncovers operation faking labels on PepsiCo, Nestle food exports

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Authorities in India have raided an illicit operation in Mumbai that falsified expiry dates and nutritional labels on authentic food products manufactured by PepsiCo, Nestle, Coca-Cola and Unilever so they ⁠could be exported to other countries.

That’s according to a report by Reuters, which said it got access to ⁠the warehouse last week as food officers conducted a six-day investigation and seized goods worth nearly $80,000.

A photographer saw chemicals used to remove manufacturers’ original expiry dates and ingredient labels, machines to print and apply replacements and scores of label packs for ​products including Lay’s potato chips and Maggi noodles.

India’s Maharashtra state, where Mumbai is the capital, has intensified ​a ⁠food safety drive under the new head of the state’s Food and Drug Administration, Tukaram Mundhe, whose surprise inspections at elite clubs and restaurants have made him an online and TV celebrity.

‘Shocked by scale’

“I am absolutely shocked by the scale. It is like an organized activity. It’s been done systematically,” Mundhe told Reuters Tuesday about the investigation into the illicit warehouse operation.

The warehouse, located in the industrial area of Navi Mumbai around 25 km (16 miles) from Mumbai’s international airport, was run by privately owned Sadhana Enterprises. Its owner said they carried out the activities on behalf of 19 little-known exporters, according to a media release from the state and a police case document.

Officials said most products were expired or near-expired. By changing dates, “harmful food products are being exported for sale, thereby defrauding customers,” the case document said.

It was not clear which countries the products were destined for, but all the stock was for export, Mundhe said. At least one reprinted label on a PepsiCo ⁠packet ⁠was in English and French, Reuters found.

PepsiCo, Nestle, Unilever India unit Hindustan Unilever, and Coca-Cola did not respond to requests for comment. Calls to warehouse co-owners Jayprakash Sanchatiram Singh and Jaya Navrang Bahadur Singh were not answered. It was not clear whether any arrests had been made.

Chemicals and printing machines

The gated warehouse had four large rooms beneath a tin roof.

Officials found nearly 5,000 cartons of consumer products, including PepsiCo’s Lay’s and Kurkure chips, Nestle’s Maggi Masala Noodles, Unilever’s Knorr Mushroom Soup and Hellmann’s Mayonnaise, and Coca-Cola’s Thums Up and Limca cans. Many of the Kurkure and Maggi packets, as well as the Thums Up cans, had their dates removed.

Inside the dirty warehouse, Reuters photographer Francis Mascarenhas saw a can of chemical solvent that officials said was used to erase dates from ⁠the packets.

They said an operator would enter the fake expiry and manufacturing dates using a stylus on a computer screen. Workers would then use a machine fitted to a metal table, decorated with a tiny “I love my India” sticker, to allegedly print the new label on packaging and cans.

“The original date of manufacture and ​expiry date on the packaging of the food articles had been scratched out, erased… (and) new information printed over them,” the police document said.

The ​police case did not accuse any global companies of wrongdoing, but Mundhe called for supply chain accountability.

“Everybody needs to take this seriously. Companies have to abide by compliance and ensure that branding, packaging and sale are done as per regulations,” he said.

Cartons ⁠of Maggi, fake ingredient labels

Enforcement ‌of food safety laws is weak in India.

Food safety checks have long focused on adulteration, ⁠particularly of dairy products, when cases rise during festive seasons as demand for traditional ‌Indian sweets surges.

Mundhe told Reuters his team found some packs were being reprinted with a future manufacturing date of Oct. 2, 2026 inside the Mumbai warehouse.

Given that foreign countries may ​have different labeling requirements and health guidelines, Reuters found ⁠dozens of Maggi cartons in the warehouse, with one sample showing a fake nutrition label pasted on ⁠top of a pack, making it export-ready by describing it as a “Product of India.”

One PepsiCo Kurkure pack had a nutrition ⁠label in English and French in a ​bilingual format.

The fake label reduced the quantity of cereal products in its ingredients by 10% and tweaked the number of calories and serving size in an apparent move to align the labels with foreign regulations.

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Majority of Americans against Canada tariffs, renaming Lake Ontario

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A majority of Americans ⁠oppose President Donald Trump’s moves last week to raise taxes on imported Canadian goods and his order to rename Lake Ontario as “Lake ​America,” according to a poll Tuesday.

The three-day Reuters/Ipsos poll, ​which concluded ⁠Sunday, showed Americans are wary of the feud with Canada – for decades a top U.S. trading partner – which has escalated since trade talks between the two countries collapsed and Trump last week ordered the hike in tariffs on Canadian goods.

Only 20% of poll respondents supported higher tariffs on Canadian goods compared to 57% who opposed them and 21% who couldn’t say where they stood. About one in five poll respondents hadn’t heard about the development.

U.S. households are already under financial pressure from the surge in ⁠gasoline ⁠prices since Trump launched a war on Iran in February, and American voters rate the cost of living as the top issue determining how they will vote in Nov. 3 midterm elections.

Trump’s Republican allies will be defending slim congressional majorities in the elections. Trump’s approval rating in recent weeks has been mired at the lowest level of his political career.

The trade conflict took a theatrical turn last week when Trump on ⁠Thursday renamed Lake Ontario, one of the five Great Lakes of North America, as “Lake America.”

Trump’s designation applies to U.S. federal usage about the lake, and does not govern what ​Canada, international bodies or other organizations call the lake.

The president has often ​ribbed Canada, threatening to annex the longtime ally as a 51st U.S. state. He ordered the Gulf of Mexico be renamed the “Gulf ⁠of ‌America” at the ‌start of his second term in January 2025.

Just ⁠14% of Americans in the Reuters/Ipsos poll ‌said they supported changing the name of Lake Ontario, which has gone by that name for ​more than 400 years. ⁠Sixty-three percent of poll respondents opposed the name change ⁠and the rest were unsure or didn’t answer the question.

The poll, which was ⁠conducted online and ​nationwide, gathered responses from 1,023 U.S. adults and had a margin of error of 4 percentage points.

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Iran claims sufficiency in foreign reserves despite US sanctions

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Iran is suggesting it has “enough” foreign currency despite U.S. sanctions, according to Abdolnaser ​Hemmati, the country’s central bank governor on Tuesday, in what appeared to be soothing remarks after recent measures announced by Washington.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent earlier said Tehran ⁠was lashing out because ⁠it was losing the economic war.

The central bank was ready to inject up to $2 ​billion into the foreign exchange ​market to ⁠calm recent volatility, Hemmati said, according to the semi-official Tasnim news agency.

“I am telling the President of the United States: Iran has (foreign) currency and it has enough,” he added.

His comments appeared aimed at reassuring markets after Iranian officials, including President Masoud Pezeshkian, pointed to growing difficulties for an economy facing U.S. sanctions and ⁠a ⁠naval blockade.

Hemmati said the central bank was continuing to collect foreign currency receivables and had domestic reserves as well as other resources, though he added that details of those could not be disclosed.

“I tell the people with complete honesty that economic conditions and livelihood management have become ⁠difficult, but collapse has never happened and will never happen. These claims are just psychological warfare and the dust will ​settle soon,” Hemmati said.

Iran’s currency plunged to a record ​low in August, crossing the psychological threshold of 2 million rials to the U.S. dollar, ⁠while ‌annual ‌inflation reached 66% in July.

Bessent ⁠said on Monday that Iran ‌was taking U.S. sanctions seriously and was “lashing out kinetically ​because they are losing economically.”

Washington ⁠has been increasingly relying on ⁠economic pressure to try to force Tehran to ⁠meet its ​demands, and Bessent has warned that those doing business with Iran could face U.S. sanctions.

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G-20 members irked by US bringing back Russia, barring journalists

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The United States’ decision on Monday to welcome Russia back to a G-20 meeting while denying access to some journalists unsettled several finance leaders attending, distracting from Washington’s effort to center the talks on global economic growth.

The two-day meeting in Asheville, North Carolina, came as the global economy is being buffeted by an energy shock triggered ⁠by the Iran war, faces rising tensions over China’s huge goods trade surplus and is ⁠braced for how an investment surge in AI will ultimately play out.

As U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent opened the meeting, some ministers were surprised and dismayed to see Russian Finance Minister Anton Siluanov sitting at the G-20 table, the first time they had attended the forum in person since Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022.

A traditional “family photo” of officials was taken Monday without Siluanov, and away from credentialed media, as European officials declined to appear in a picture with their Russian counterpart.

EU economy chief Valdis Dombrovskis said Tuesday that it is not the time to “normalize” Moscow’s presence.

“I think the European position is known,” Dombrovskis told reporters on the sidelines of the gathering. “We do not think now is the time to normalize Russia” or its presence at such talks, the Latvian official said.

Polish Finance Minister Andrzej Domanski said he was unhappy to ​see Russia represented, although he recognized the right of G-20 hosts to invite guests.

“We do not trust Russia. They lie constantly and you ​need to be ⁠really, really cautious while discussing with them,” he told Reuters, stressing that Russia was the aggressor in its conflict with Ukraine.

“So for me it would be very difficult to have any kind of conversation with Russia.”

Siluanov also held a bilateral meeting with Bessent that covered financial cooperation within the G-20 framework, Russia’s Finance Ministry said. A U.S. official said the focus of that meeting was on President Donald Trump’s peace plan for Ukraine. A source familiar with the discussions said Bessent told Siluanov no economic relief for Russia or agreements on other issues were possible until the war ends.

German Finance Minister Lars Klingbeil said Europe was preparing a further package of sanctions against Russia, but Siluanov’s presence at the Asheville meeting sent a “quite troubling” signal for U.S. cooperation with the effort.

“I would have wanted greater clarity from the American side that he should not be received here as a normal guest,” Klingbeil said.

Siluanov’s appearance marks a stark contrast from April 2022, when even his virtual participation in a G-20 meeting in Washington drew broad condemnation of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and prompted a walkout by officials from the U.S., Britain, Canada and the European Central Bank (ECB).

Focus on growth

Bessent told reporters that stronger growth was the best path out of a debt overhang built up since the 2008 global financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic.

Global ⁠debt levels ⁠earlier this year hit a record of nearly $353 trillion, leading to concerns about financial stability and prompting some investors to reappraise even traditionally safe havens such as U.S. Treasuries.

“The world is awash in debt post-GFC, post-COVID, and the only way for us to get out of this is to grow our way out of this,” Bessent said at the start of the meeting, referring to the 2007 to 2009 global financial crisis.

“I’m confident that a lot of the leaders are very receptive to this,” he added.

The Treasury also took the unusual step of inviting private-sector luminaries to participate in some of the G-20 sessions on promoting stronger growth, reflecting the Trump administration’s view that growth was best served by deregulation, producing more energy and fostering innovation.

Bessent told one of the sessions that global growth had underperformed its potential for too long and that causes can no longer include “policy failures of our own making.”

He said the U.S. Treasury had identified several impediments to growth that G-20 countries needed to work on, including “excessive regulatory and administrative burdens, poorly designed financial incentives and tax systems, insufficient public and private investment, internal market fragmentation, and gaps in workforce skills and mobility.”

Press access denials

Another issue that drew ⁠criticism was the U.S. Treasury’s decision to deny certain journalists media credentials to cover the event, including teams from Bloomberg News and specific reporters from The New York Times and The Wall Street Journal.

“I believe the press has a completely legitimate interest in reporting openly and freely on this G-20 summit,” Klingbeil said. “I consider it unacceptable for journalists or entire editorial teams to be excluded.”

A U.S. Treasury spokesperson said that over 300 media were covering the event, including another New York Times reporter, and ​access comes with a “responsibility to report factual information consistent with established journalistic standards.”

U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Kevin Warsh, attending his first international economic policy meeting since taking office in May, said he was looking forward to ​learning more about growth prospects among member economies. He said an era of “secular stagnation” marked by a lack of innovation looked to be over amid an AI investment boom.

“If I were to try to characterize this moment, it would be one of a global investment surge,” he said, adding that it had reversed the “global savings glut,” which in the past had kept capital idle due ⁠to a shortage of investment ‌opportunities.

No debt market ‘turmoil’

Bessent also ‌highlighted strong U.S. growth, which has benefited from investments in AI infrastructure that have also helped to push up Treasury debt yields by ⁠soaking up savings that had previously held borrowing costs down by flowing into Treasuries.

Ahead of the G-20 talks, Bessent played down ‌mounting market scrutiny of U.S. debt levels, arguing the United States was in a stronger position than many advanced economies because it continues to grow, even while running large budget deficits.

“First of all, I’m not sure where the bond market turmoil is,” he told Reuters in ​an interview on Sunday. “What’s important, too, is that we are growing.”

On Tuesday, ⁠the U.S. was to focus on reducing global trade imbalances, and Bessent said he would urge G-20 members to re-examine their terms of trade with China ⁠to pressure Beijing to rebalance its economy away from exports and toward domestic consumption.

“The world cannot have a China with a $1.2 trillion trade surplus,” Bessent said. “In China, the economy is quite weak, and ⁠they are trying to export their way out of ​it, and they need to rebalance their economy.”

Economists say the U.S. must also reduce its growing fiscal deficits as part of this rebalancing effort.

“We need a more balanced world,” French Finance Minister Roland Lescure said. “We know that every big zone, whether China, the U.S. and Europe, has got their own homework to do.”



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Türkiye says to seek historic climate action plan at COP31

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Türkiye will seek to deliver a historic action plan with concrete solutions to the climate crisis at the COP31 climate summit it will host in November, Environment, Urbanisation and Climate Change Minister Murat Kurum said Tuesday.

Kurum, who is also president of COP31, said the summit in the Mediterranean hub of Antalya would be an “Implementation COP” focused on turning climate commitments into tangible action rather than setting new targets.

“The world does not need to constantly set new targets at the negotiating table. What it needs is an unwavering will to turn those targets into action in the field, in industry and in cities,” Kurum told an event in Ankara.

“Let Antalya not be a place where problems are discussed over and over again, but rather a place where solutions are found.”

He said Türkiye would use its diplomatic capacity and experience to overcome barriers to implementation and ensure that commitments made under the Paris Agreement translate into concrete results.

6 global initiatives by 2035

Kurum said Türkiye and Australia, which are working together to lead the COP process, had set six major global initiatives to be implemented by 2035.

The first focuses on electrification, with a goal of increasing its global share to 35%.

The second aims to cut the growth in global waste by half, while the third targets a 25% reduction in energy consumption in buildings by 2035.

The fourth initiative seeks to increase the use of circular materials in industry to 15%, reducing pressure on natural resources.

The fifth focuses on climate literacy and education, while the sixth aims to establish a “Climate Implementation Bridge” connecting countries in need with financing and solutions.

Kurum said governments alone could not finance the scale of investment required to tackle climate change and called on banks, investors and major companies to play a greater role in the green transition.

“This historic crisis cannot be overcome with the limited budgets of governments alone,” he said, urging the private sector to join the effort at the center of the green transformation.

Stronger role for vulnerable countries

Kurum said Türkiye would seek to ensure that vulnerable countries, particularly those in Africa and small island states, have a stronger voice in the COP31 process.

He said climate impacts did not respect national borders and that climate justice would remain Türkiye’s guiding principle during the negotiations.

Türkiye is working with Australia around three pillars, dialogue, consensus and action, and plans to engage with countries and stakeholders ahead of the Antalya summit, he said.

Kurum said Türkiye would also use the process to bring together young people, cities, businesses, farmers and scientists to develop practical solutions.

He said the world leaders summit in Antalya would provide an opportunity to give new direction to international climate efforts.

“Do not expect a piece of paper from Antalya that will gather dust on shelves,” Kurum said. “We will produce a strong action plan from Antalya that will shake the world to its foundations and rewrite history.”

Climate finance and preparations

Kurum said Türkiye would continue preparations through a series of international meetings and initiatives, including events in Fiji, Baku, New York and London.

He said the Pre-COP meeting in Fiji would be particularly important for giving vulnerable Pacific island states a platform to make their concerns heard.

Türkiye will also launch a major seabed mud-cleaning project in the Gulf of Fethiye and address marine environmental issues in the Black Sea province of Trabzon as part of its broader climate agenda, Kurum said.

Antalya, which has historically served as a meeting point for civilizations and trade routes, would become a venue for international cooperation on the shared future of humanity, he said.

“We will start with dialogue, grow through consensus and bring it to life through action,” Kurum said.

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Eurozone inflation climbs to 3-year high, testing ECB’s resolve

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Eurozone inflation rose to 3.3% August, the highest level seen in three years, as the war in the Middle East kept pressure on energy costs, official data showed Tuesday.

Well above the 2% target set by the European Central Bank (ECB), the figure from the EU’s statistical office was up sharply from 2.9% in July and in line with forecasts by analysts for Bloomberg.

“Looking at the main components of euro area inflation, energy is expected to have the highest annual rate in August,” Eurostat said, noting that energy prices were up 14.3% in August after rising 10.3% in July.

The U.S. war against Iran and the near-total closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a key energy trade route, have sent global energy costs soaring.

“Inflation should remain well above target into next year, as higher gas and food prices put additional upward pressure on the index,” said Leo Barincou of Oxford Economics.

The ECB is expected to again raise interest rates at its meeting on Sept. 10 to tame the surge in prices, after a first hike in June.

The bank’s chief, Christine Lagarde, warned in July that the energy shock from the conflict “could intensify further.”

ECB hike expected

“The ECB will hike again next week,” said Kamil Kovar at Moody’s Analytics, adding that the jury was out on whether the decision would be followed by another increase in December.

“The broad-based increase in energy prices – not just transport fuel, but also gas and now even electricity – is playing in hawks’ favor,” he said.

Core inflation, which strips out volatile energy and food prices, has remained largely stable in recent months.

In August, it slowed back to 2.4% after accelerating slightly to 2.5% in July.

Food and drinks inflation in August remained at 1.2%, the same level recorded last month.

Eurozone inflation was last above 3.3% in September 2023, when it stood at 4.3%.

At the time, consumer price rises were slowing after reaching a peak of 10.6% in October 2022, driven by surging energy prices caused by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

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