The increase in Türkiye’s minimum pension as part of ​a draft bill discussed at parliamentary commission on ⁠Tuesday will ⁠cost the budget TL 79 billion ($1.68 billion) in ​the second ​half of ⁠2026, an impact analysis showed.

The bill would raise the minimum pension from TL 20,000 to TL 23,552, benefiting about 5.1 million pensioners, while also imposing new levies on internet platforms and media providers.

Internet ⁠platforms and media service providers will be required to pay 2% of prior-year net sales to a Culture and Tourism Ministry fund, aimed at boosting the cinema sector.

The 2% levy is ⁠projected to generate TL 417.1 million in additional annual revenue.

A 3,500-lira-per-insured-worker ​incentive for businesses that maintain their ​workforce, introduced in 2026, will be extended for two more ⁠years.

Incentive ‌and support payments are projected ⁠at TL 51 ‌billion in 2026, TL 62 billion ​in 2027 ⁠and TL 75 billion ⁠in 2028, totaling TL 188 ⁠billion.

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Türkiye’s economy has become more resilient over the decade since the July 15 failed coup attempt, leading business groups said on Tuesday.

They stressed that sustained investment, exports and industrial development have reinforced Türkiye’s economic independence despite a series of global and regional shocks.

The statements were released ahead of the 10th anniversary of the failed coup in 2016, which business leaders said had targeted not only Türkiye’s democratic institutions but also its economic stability and production capacity.

The coup attempt was carried out by a faction within the Turkish Armed Forces linked to the Gülenist Terror Group (FETÖ). The plotters opened fire on civilians and security personnel and bombed state institutions, killing over 250 people and wounding another 2,000.

It became a turning point in modern Türkiye’s history.

Foreign Economic Relations Board (DEIK) Chair Nail Olpak said the Turkish private sector had maintained production, exports, employment and investment without interruption over the past decade, demonstrating that economic independence is an inseparable part of national sovereignty.

Olpak said per capita income had risen from about $10,900 in 2016 to roughly $18,000, while Türkiye’s share of global exports had increased to 1.07%, despite geopolitical tensions and financial volatility in recent years.

“While deepening its integration with the global economy, our country has demonstrated its resilience and adaptability to the world despite the geopolitical and financial risks it has faced in recent years,” he noted.

Türkiye Exporters Assembly (TIM) President Mustafa Gültepe said the treacherous coup attempt targeted not only democratic institutions but also the country’s credibility in global markets.

Gültepe also said Turkish exporters had passed a “crucial test at that critical juncture,” as they resumed operations immediately after the coup attempt, sending a message to international customers that production and trade were continuing uninterrupted.

“With nearly 160,000 exporters, we have never changed our course since then,” Gültepe said, adding that Türkiye would continue expanding its global trade network and reinforcing its position as a reliable link in international supply chains.

Istanbul Chamber of Commerce (ITO) Chair Şekib Avdagiç said the business community recovered more quickly than expected after the coup attempt and subsequently withstood additional economic challenges.

He said Türkiye had climbed into the world’s 16th-largest economy over the past decade, despite temporary disruptions following the failed coup.

Istanbul Chamber of Industry (ISO) President Erdal Bahçıvan said the events of July 15 demonstrated the country’s commitment to democracy and national unity, adding that sustainable economic development depends on strong institutions, production capacity and social cohesion.

Independent Industrialists and Businessmen’s Association (MÜSIAD) Chair Burhan Özdemir described the coup attempt as an attack on Türkiye’s economic independence as well as its democratic order.

The market volatility, sharp fluctuations in exchange rates, selling pressure in financial markets and temporary slowdown in economic activity that followed resulted in significant costs, Özdemir noted.

“However, thanks to strong political leadership, effective economic management, and the resolute stance of the real sector, the Turkish economy managed to overcome this attack in a short time,” he added.

Özdemir said the country has since strengthened its industrial base and export capacity despite successive global shocks.

He highlighted advances in strategic sectors including defense, energy, transportation and technology.

Özdemir described the development of Türkiye’s defense industry as one of the clearest symbols of the country’s post-2016 drive for greater strategic autonomy.

Orhan Aydın, the chair of the Anatolian Lions Businessmen Association (ASKON), said the coup attempt had sought to undermine both Türkiye’s political and economic independence.

He also said it had had major negative implications on the economy.

“July 15 is the day when our nation proved to the entire world that its will prevails over foreign powers, centers of tutelage and all forms of treacherous uprisings,” Aydın said.

“Just as it did on that dark night, Türkiye will continue on its path today with a spirit of national unity and solidarity, through production, employment, and faith, and will establish its economic independence even more firmly.”

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President Donald Trump said Monday that the United States would impose a 20% charge on cargo shipments using the Strait of Hormuz after a cease-fire with Iran collapsed amid a dispute over Tehran’s efforts to retain control of the key waterway.

Iran shut down the 34 km (21 ​mile) wide strait that was the main route for a fifth of world oil supplies and other vital goods including fertilizers when the U.S. and Israel attacked it on Feb. 28, causing a global energy shock.

This ⁠is why it matters, how Trump’s and Iran’s stances differ, and how ⁠it affects the rest of the world:

Has U.S. shifted position on charging Hormuz fees?

As recently as June 25, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said when meeting Gulf states and in response to Iran’s demand for fees that “no country on Earth has ​the right to charge for the use of international waterways” and that fees for shipping would never be ​part ⁠of any deal.

But Trump has previously mooted the possibility of the U.S. charging tolls if the deal with Iran were to break down.

“There will be NO TOLLS in the Hormuz Strait for 60 days during the Cease Fire Period, and there will be NO TOLLS after the 60 day period has expired, unless they are imposed by and for the United States of America, should the deal not be completed, for services rendered as the Guardian Angel to the countries of the Middle East for purposes of both past, present, and future reimbursement of costs,” he wrote in a social media post on June 20.

With the cease-fire in tatters, he now appears to have reverted to his earlier stance.

“The U.S.A. will be, from this point forward, known as ‘THE GUARDIAN OF THE HORMUZ STRAIT,’ but as such, and as a matter of FAIRNESS, will be reimbursed, at the rate of 20% on all cargo shipped,” he said in a social media post on Monday.

Trump has not explained how such charges would be imposed nor what legal authority ⁠he ⁠could use to demand them for passage.

How is Trump’s demand for toll different from Iran’s?

Iran has made its lasting control over the strait, whose waters it shares with Oman, its main priority in negotiations, seeing it as its strongest strategic lever with the outside world and the best guarantee of its security against future attacks.

It believes Washington had accepted this in the wording of last month’s interim deal, which said Iran “will make arrangements using its best efforts for the safe passage of commercial vessels with no charge for 60 days only.”

However, the U.S. regarded that language as meaning only that Iran should facilitate safe passage for vessels and not impose restrictions backed up by force.

During the war, Tehran set up the Persian Gulf Strait Authority that it says any vessel passing through the waterway must coordinate with and it insists ships should ⁠only transit near the Iranian shoreline. It has targeted vessels trying to pass along the Omani shore that did not seek its permission.

It has said it may eventually charge fees for passage but has not detailed what these would be.

What was situation before war and is it legal for anyone to charge for using Hormuz?

The strait is ​made up of the territorial waters of Iran and Oman, with the maritime boundary running along the middle.

The UNCLOS maritime convention governing international sea law ​says states bordering straits cannot demand payment simply for permission to pass through.

However, they can impose limited fees for specific services such as piloting, tugging or port services, though these may not be levied more heavily on vessels from any particular countries.

Neither Iran nor the United ⁠States are signatories to UNCLOS, ‌but it is ‌widely regarded as international maritime law and Hormuz as an international strait.

In 1968, Iran and Oman agreed ⁠on a traffic scheme with the International Maritime Organization (IMO) under which major vessels would use sea ‌lanes along the middle of the strait.

Iranian mine-laying during the war has now made such passage unsafe according to the IMO.

Would other countries accept tolls or fees for transiting Hormuz?

No such ​unilateral move to demand fees to traverse a ⁠strait has been made in modern history, shipping industry officials said.

Oman has held dialogue with Iran on the issue. ⁠It issued guidance last month for vessels transiting the strait through its water that did not require any fees. Gulf states, whose main access to the ⁠high seas for their vital energy exports ​lies through the strait, are particularly concerned about fees.

Major consumers of Gulf energy products and fertilizers may also be alarmed, especially by Trump’s proposal for a 20% surcharge on cargoes. That could push up global oil prices significantly.

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Wall Street banks posted strong second-quarter earnings, boosted by robust merger-and-acquisition advisory fees and a surge in trading revenue, though lenders cautioned about risks to the economy and financial markets.

The SpaceX initial public offering has helped. Wall Street banks, including Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley, played big roles in the nearly $86 billion SpaceX IPO. Banks on the SpaceX IPO raked in around $500 million in fees.

Investment banking has been a strong area of revenue growth, with mega equity offerings and ​multibillion-dollar transactions signaling the most bullish dealmaking environment in years. Trading continues to be strong with higher-than-usual volatility due to geopolitical conflict and ​uncertainty surrounding AI disruption.

“We’ve had really terrific global markets performance and investment banking performances,” said Bank of America (BofA) Chief ⁠Financial Officer Alastair Borthwick on the bank’s media call. “Business continues to feel good.”

Bank of America beat estimates for second-quarter profit, benefiting from record trading activity and ​a surge in dealmaking, one of five banks reporting on Tuesday.

JPMorgan Chase reported a similar theme. Big-ticket IPOs and dealmaking helped drive investment banking fees to their ​highest levels since 2021, while stock traders capitalized on volatile markets.

‘Booming environment’

“What’s going on in equities is a booming environment with a ton of activity, big IPOs, the AI theme, a very active environment,” said JPMorgan CFO Jeremy Barnum on the bank’s media call.

Global investment banking revenue hit $61.4 billion in the first half of 2026, a 24% jump ​from a year earlier, according to Dealogic data. JPMorgan remained the global leader in investment banking revenue, while Goldman Sachs was the global leader in ​advising on M&A.

Chip designer Cerebras’ $6.4 billion IPO and Google-parent Alphabet’s $85 billion share sale were also among the top deals in the second quarter.

“We thought the 2Q earnings were going ‌to be ⁠very good, but they turned out to be extraordinary,” said Macrae Sykes, portfolio manager at GABF ETF, Gabelli Funds.

“We continue to believe the environment for the major banks is very constructive due to business activity, market engagement and demand for capital with average loans up around 10%.”

Bank shares were mixed. JPMorgan rose 0.7%, Citi climbed 1%, BofA gained 1% and Goldman jumped 4%, but Wells Fargo dropped 1.7%.

Still, there were notes of caution about markets.

“How fragile/dangerous/overheated/exuberant is ​the current moment?” asked JPMorgan’s Barnum, pointing ​to nominal leverage numbers and ⁠valuations being “quite high.”

“It would be naive not to be worried – but it’s easy to be worried and the market keeps going up,” he said.

Citi CFO Gonzalo Luchetti said conflict in the Middle East may affect deal activity over time, ​although the pipeline remains strong.

JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon said in the bank’s press release that “several risks are shifting ​below the surface like ⁠tectonic plates, including geopolitical tensions and wars, sticky inflation, large global fiscal deficits and elevated asset prices,” adding “they could also cause meaningful disruptions when they shift or collide.”

Goldman Sachs exceeded second-quarter profit expectations, Wells Fargo beat Wall Street estimates for second-quarter profit, and Citigroup reported a 45% jump in second-quarter profit and its highest quarterly revenue in ⁠a decade. ​Morgan Stanley will report second-quarter results on Wednesday.

“The AI-driven capex super cycle has benefited equity ​issuance, M&A activity and debt financing, while trading has been helped by Iran-related volatility across asset classes,” said Stephen Biggar, director of financial services research at Argus Research.

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U.S. President Donald Trump reversed Tuesday his plans to charge a 20% toll on all cargo going through the Strait of Hormuz as part of the ​conflict ⁠with Iran a day after he announced it.

Instead, Trump said Middle Eastern countries will make investment and trade deals with the U.S.

U.S. had carried out waves of attacks for the third night in a row after Iran said it had closed the strait, prompting Trump on Monday to reinstate a blockade of Iranian shipping and propose the fee.

But just a little under five hours before the fee had been due to come into effect at 2000 GMT, Trump said the strait was open to all shipping traffic except that of Iran.

“Based on highly productive conversations with Middle East leadership, I have decided to replace the 20% United States Reimbursement Fee with Trade and Investment Deals that the various Gulf States will be making into the United States,” Trump said in a post on Truth Social.

The president said the investments “will be MASSIVE,” though it’s unclear if these would be new commitments relative to what Trump announced after a visit last year to the Middle East.

Oil futures prices pared their gains after the post after rising earlier on Tuesday. The worsening attacks had increased doubts that a memorandum of understanding signed last month would lead ⁠to a permanent halt in the war, which has disrupted global energy supplies and raised fears of a rise in inflation globally.

Iran had hit back by attacking a U.S. ​military base in Jordan with ballistic missiles, while Bahrain, which hosts a U.S. ​naval base, said it had fended off an Iranian aerial attack. Jordan said it had shot down four ballistic missiles and explosions were ⁠heard ‌in Manama, ‌Bahrain’s capital.

Before the war, about a fifth of ⁠global oil and gas traffic passed through ‌Hormuz daily. If the U.S. were to impose a 20% fee, it could generate around $240 ​million a day.

The U.N. shipping ⁠agency said it opposed any fees for straits used ⁠in international navigation and that there was no legal basis for introducing ⁠mandatory tolls on ​strait transits.

Later on Thursday, Trump said he did not ​think anybody ​should be ⁠able to charge a fee for ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz.

“I don’t ⁠like the concept of a fee, but ​at the same time, it’s ​not fair that we’re ⁠protecting ‌this ‌strait for ⁠the entire world,” ‌he said ​in remarks to ⁠reporters.

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Recent heat waves across the European continent, which have pushed temperatures above seasonal norms, are boosting demand for heating, ventilation and air conditioning (HVAC) products, driving double-digit growth in Turkish exports to the region.

Extreme heat waves across the continent are reshaping daily life and demand for climate control products, which were once deemed luxury items.

Europe appears to be particularly exposed and vulnerable to climate change, with many countries, including the U.K., France and Spain, witnessing heat waves in recent weeks, most notably at the end of June.

European countries have reported more than 10,000 excess deaths during the record-breaking heatwave that engulfed the west of the continent in late June, official data showed recently.

The vast majority, or more ​than 9,000, were among people aged 65 and above, according to data published by ‌EuroMOMO, a network backed by the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control and the World Health Organization (WHO).

Extreme heat can kill by causing heat stroke or aggravating cardiovascular and respiratory diseases, with older people among the most ​vulnerable.

The rise in air temperatures has also renewed debate about air conditioning (AC) systems in Europe, with ACs now seen as an essential need during the summer months.

Investments in cooling solutions in many EU countries accelerated in residential and public buildings, workplaces, health care facilities, and educational institutions.

Consequently, European markets affected by heat waves increased orders for energy-efficient HVAC systems, including those from Türkiye.

Germany top market

Germany was the largest European market for Turkish HVAC exports in June, totaling $71.4 million, up 19.9% year-over-year, according to data compiled by Anadolu Agency (AA) from the Türkiye Exporters Assembly (TIM).

Germany was followed by Italy, where exports rose 35.1% to $30.5 million, France, up 46.3% to $28.3 million, Poland, where exports increased 10.3% to $23.7 million, and Spain, where they rose 29.3% to $23 million, the data showed.

Finland recorded the largest increase in Turkish HVAC exports at a whopping 130.7% surge, followed by Croatia with 97.3%, Latvia with 96.1%, Luxembourg with 83.6%, and Malta with 74%.

Osman Baştaş, chair of the Turkish HVAC-R Exporters Association (ISIB), told AA that rising exports confirmed the Turkish climate control industry’s strong position and competitive edge in global markets, due to demand particularly driven by the EU, as well as by the Middle East, North Africa, and Central Asia.

Baştaş said promotional campaigns targeting the U.S. and other alternative markets also had a positive impact on the sector’s exports.

“Turkish manufacturers gained a massive advantage in global markets thanks to high-quality production, flexible manufacturing capabilities, fast delivery, and a robust engineering infrastructure,” he said.

“The restructuring process in supply chains presented great opportunities for our sector due to Türkiye’s geographical proximity to Europe.”

Rising demand

Baştaş said Turkish firms achieved this success thanks to green transition investments, which have become “key competitive criteria.”

“The demand in many markets, especially in Europe, is rising rapidly for systems that are energy-efficient with a low carbon footprint and pro-environment refrigerants, something Turkish firms have been investing in for quite some time, and we expect the impact of the green transition to drive exports even further in the coming period,” he said.

Baştaş also stated that the effects of climate change have rendered climate control systems a basic necessity, not only for residential buildings but also for shopping malls, hospitals, hotels, factories, logistics warehouses, and especially artificial intelligence (AI) data centers.

“Data centers became a growing sector as AI and digitalization gained momentum, and the demand for advanced, energy-efficient HVAC systems that provide precise temperature and humidity control in these facilities is rising day by day,” he said.

“Türkiye is among those benefiting most from this transition as we see rising export demand for high-energy-efficient HVAC systems, heat pumps, ventilation equipment, heat recovery systems, automation solutions, industrial cooling systems, and data center cooling technologies,” he added.

Baştaş stated that Türkiye has become one of the world’s leading HVAC manufacturing hubs thanks to its wide product range, robust supporting industries, high production capacity, price advantage and compliance with international standards.

“Many global brands operating in developed markets are manufacturing in Türkiye, underscoring the sector’s global credibility,” he said.

He said the sector’s export performance in the first half of the year had fueled optimism in the sector for the second half, while signs such as the normalization of inventories in Europe, ongoing energy efficiency investments, and rising temperatures driving up demand for air conditioners are supporting the sector.

“We think the growth will continue in the second half as long as the current order flow and export performance are maintained,” he said.

“We also aim to raise our share in the export of high-value-added, energy-efficient, and sustainable products, and we think the rise of the Turkish HVAC industry in the global market will continue in the coming years,” he concluded.