Türkiye’s central bank is likely to pursue a gradual normalization of monetary policy in the remainder of the year by lowering its effective funding costs before considering further policy rate cuts, according to economists.

Their estimates came after the Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye (CBRT) kept its benchmark one-week repo rate at 37% on Thursday, as expected, leaving borrowing costs unchanged for a fourth consecutive meeting.

Policymakers thus maintained a cautious stance amid heightened geopolitical uncertainty and lingering inflation risks as oil prices rise again after the U.S.-Iran conflict flared up.

CBRT’s interest rate corridor was also left unchanged, with the upper and lower bounds remaining at 40% and 35.5%, respectively, in line with expectations.

As a result, the bank will continue to fund through the upper bound of the corridor, as the repo window has remained closed since the start of the Middle East conflict.

In its statement, the bank said underlying inflation eased modestly in June, but leading indicators suggested it would temporarily pick up in July.

It also warned that rising energy prices amid heightened geopolitical uncertainty posed upside risks to inflation, while noting that recent data pointed to a more pronounced weakening in domestic demand.

Limited room

Economist Haluk Bürümcekçi said the CBRT had only limited room for policy rate cuts during the remainder of the year, even under a more favorable macroeconomic scenario.

He said the bank would likely first unwind its temporary monetary tightening by shifting funding back toward one-week repo auctions before lowering the benchmark policy rate, provided global conditions improve.

Before the recent escalation of the Iran war, the prevailing expectation was that the CBRT would begin easing through its liquidity tools, allowing the effective cost of funding to fall from 40% to 37%, either gradually or through full normalization.

Since the conflict started, the bank has halted an easing cycle that began in late 2024 and taken other liquidity steps.

Annual inflation eased to 32.1% last month from 32.6% in May. The decline had stalled following a sharp rise in energy prices caused by the war. On a monthly basis, consumer prices rose 0.99% in June, slowing from 1.7% in May.

‘Wait-and-see mode’

Analysts at the Dutch financial giant ING said they expect the central bank to remain in “wait-and-see mode” in the near term before deciding whether to lower the effective cost of funding toward the policy rate.

A renewed agreement in the U.S.-Iran conflict could create scope for the bank to normalize the effective funding rate as early as August or September, depending on developments in inflation and reserve dynamics, they added.

Bürümcekçi noted that the CBRT maintained the 450-basis-point spread between its overnight borrowing and lending rates and signaled continued caution by highlighting expectations of a temporary rise in underlying inflation in July and ongoing increases in energy prices.

Depending on uncertainty in global markets and the trend in foreign exchange demand, he said the current outlook is expected to be maintained for some time, with the CBRT providing funding through the overnight lending channel rather than holding weekly repo auctions.

He added that the bank’s statement suggested policymakers would continue their cautious stance on macroprudential measures and liquidity management.

Kutay Gözgör, research director at Kuveyt Türk Investment, said the statement retained a cautiously hawkish tone, with no explicit guidance on restarting one-week repo auctions.

Compared with the previous policy statement, the bank placed greater emphasis on a temporary increase in underlying inflation and renewed upward pressure from energy prices, indicating a more cautious assessment of near-term inflation risks, he said.

At the same time, Gözgör said the bank struck a somewhat more dovish tone on economic activity by stating that weakness in domestic demand had become more pronounced, suggesting tighter monetary conditions were having a stronger effect on spending.

Return to repo auctions

He said the combination of slowing domestic demand and persistent inflation risks suggested policymakers still saw limited room for near-term easing.

Gözgör expects the CBRT to begin its normalization process by reintroducing one-week repo auctions, potentially as early as August if inflation continues to improve.

“Although the lack of clear guidance regarding a return to repo auctions or the interest rate cut process may limit strong dovish pricing in the short term, we believe the possibility of a gradual normalization remains intact, contingent on an improvement in the inflation outlook,” he noted.

That would gradually reduce the average funding cost before measured policy rate cuts later in the year. He forecasts the bank will lower the policy rate to 34% by the end of 2026, assuming inflation continues to moderate.

The CBRT raised its end-2026 inflation forecast to 24% from 16% in its quarterly inflation report published in mid-May, saying the short-term inflationary effects of the Iran war would remain “pronounced.”

The bank projects inflation falling to 15% at the end of 2027 and 9% at the end of 2028.

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The U.S. announced Thursday that it would impose new tariffs on 60 trading partners over forced labor concerns, replacing an expiring global duty rolled out by President Donald Trump earlier this year.

The levies, which take effect Friday, range from 10% to 12.5% and will target countries that account for 99% of U.S. imports, including major economies like China, India and the European Union.

“The United States has had a forced labor import ban for nearly a century, and rigorously enforces it; it’s well past time for our trading partners to do the same,” said U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer in unveiling the duties.

“Today’s action will begin to correct what is both a human rights abuse and distortive trade practice to improve the welfare of workers everywhere.”

The Trump administration has moved swiftly to rebuild the president’s tariff wall after the Supreme Court struck down a host of his duties in February – dealing a blow to his ability to unleash steep levies at will.

After the legal setback, Trump tapped different authorities to reimpose a 10% tariff on imports. But this only lasts 150 days, expiring Friday.

The volley of new duties, initially proposed in June, will now take its place.

The measures were proposed after a months-long investigation and are considered more resistant to legal challenges than earlier moves.

Under Thursday’s announcement, economies that have implemented a forced-labor prohibition are hit with the lower 10% rate. They include Canada, the EU and the United Kingdom.

Others were deemed to deserve harsher levies, receiving the higher 12.5% tariff, a U.S. official told reporters. Trading partners like China and Japan are covered in this group.

Goods already facing Trump’s sector-specific tariffs – like steel and aluminum – will not be impacted.

Goods entering under the U.S.-Mexico-Canada free trade pact will also be exempt, a U.S. official told reporters.

Maintaining leverage

And more tariffs are likely coming: The U.S. Trade Representative’s office has launched a probe into whether 16 countries – accounting for 70% of U.S. imports – have overproduced goods, pushing down prices and putting U.S. companies at a disadvantage in global markets. The administration has yet to complete that investigation.

These could result in different rates among countries eventually, as Trump had done before his legal setback.

The Trump administration’s move to impose a baseline tariff while sustaining the threat of further duties ahead maintains leverage over its trading partners, trade lawyer Greta Peisch told Agence France-Presse (AFP).

It also creates an incentive for countries to comply with trade pacts that they earlier struck, she added.

In spending time on investigations, officials want their incoming tariffs to be robust if there are court challenges, said Peisch, a former USTR general counsel who is now a partner at Wiley Rein.

“This makes it much more likely that they stay for the duration of Trump’s term,” signaling a “much more protectionist world’s largest economy” moving forward, Josh Lipsky of the Atlantic Council think tank told AFP.

The Trump administration has been hunting for options that would allow it to aggressively deploy tariffs, said former U.S. trade official Ryan Majerus.

In the longer term, Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974, which Greer tapped to impose the latest duties, provides “more flexibility than people realize,” Majerus said.

Once they are in place, officials can modify them based on new developments, added Majerus, a partner at King & Spalding.

The Section 301 permits the president to impose import taxes and other sanctions against countries found to engage in “unjustifiable,” “unreasonable” or “discriminatory” trade practices. Trump used Section 301 to impose big tariffs on China in his first term, and they survived court challenges.

‘Fragile’ deals

The latest salvo comes shortly after a separate 25% tariff took effect on various Brazilian goods, with Washington accusing the Latin American giant of unfair trade practices after a yearlong investigation.

This week, Trump also ordered new 50% tariffs on many Canadian products, citing Ottawa’s “discriminatory treatment” against American alcohol, automobile and dairy products.

The Canadian tariffs taking effect in a month relied on an untested legal provision, showing that Trump has “other tools in the toolkit” to wield, said Lipsky.

This signals that U.S. tariff deals “are still fragile.”

Nonetheless, the EU, which earlier signed a trade pact with the United States, expects Washington “will honor the commitments that are spelled out under the EU-U.S. Joint Statement.”

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The European Central Bank (ECB) kept interest rates unchanged as expected on Thursday, but opened the door to another increase in September, as ⁠renewed conflict in the Middle East has largely erased any hope of a quick moderation in energy costs.

The ECB raised rates in June and hinted at more to come, but a string of benign data since then – on prices, wages, ​economic activity and inflation expectations – had made a quick follow-up step less urgent.

The return of oil ​prices ⁠to $100 per barrel as the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran disrupts shipping did stir talk of policy tightening at this month’s policy meeting, ECB President Christine Lagarde said, supporting market bets that a rate hike in September is likely.

“There were some governors who asked themselves whether we should not consider a hike; in other words, raising the three interest rates,” Lagarde told a news conference. The Governing Council’s decision to keep the benchmark deposit rate unchanged at 2.25% was nevertheless unanimous, she said.

The ECB had flagged a hold in the weeks leading up to Thursday’s meeting on the premise that energy prices were falling quickly and moving closer to the mildest of three scenarios it set out in March.

But the recent reversal, coupled with a surge in natural gas prices to more than three-year highs, has also reset energy price expectations.

“As we stand now today, (the milder scenario) looks quite unlikely, let’s face it,” Lagarde said. “The full effects of the energy shock have ⁠yet ⁠to play out.”

Economists said that was consistent with a hike in September.

“Lagarde’s comments at the press conference clearly point to a September rate hike,” ING economist Carsten Brzeski said. “The European Central Bank has again turned more hawkish, suggesting that a September rate hike is almost a done deal.”

The U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) and the Bank of England (BoE), both of which make rate decisions next week, are also weighing the timing of possible hikes in months to come.

For the ECB, investors are betting on almost three more interest rate increases in the coming year, with a first move fully priced in by October and the second by next February. This pricing reflects energy prices more than economic fundamentals, however, and most economists polled by Reuters say the 21-country eurozone will need far ⁠less policy tightening to keep a lid on inflation, which could hover around 3% in the coming months. The ECB targets an inflation rate of 2%.

No second-round effects yet

The key reason the ECB was in no rush to act on Thursday was that long-feared second-round effects of the energy price spike have yet ​to materialize.

“We are not seeing a second-round effect,” Lagarde said.

Firms surveyed by the bank did not point to such impacts in their pricing ​or pay decisions and wage growth is continuing to slow, as the ECB has long forecast, Lagarde said: “None of those elements for the moment… are giving us second-round effects indications.”

One reason why such impacts may be slow to materialize is that ⁠the labor market ‌remains relatively soft – particularly in Germany, the bloc’s biggest economy – while surveys point to muted pay pressures. Consumers have dialled ⁠back their price expectations and services inflation actually slowed last month.

Trade tensions, high energy ‌costs and China’s expansion into some of Europe’s key export markets, meanwhile, suggest that the bloc’s industries will continue to struggle, putting downward pressure on labor demand.

Scorching summer weather ​in much of Europe this month is a potential ⁠risk, however, as Lagarde acknowledged. The heat may have damaged crops and could push up food ⁠prices, while low water levels on key rivers could create shipping bottlenecks.

Asked about persistent rumors that she may leave the ECB early, ⁠Lagarde said she was not ​about to depart but also did not say she would stay until her term expires in late 2027.

“You are not going to see the back of me before 2027,” the ECB president said. “When there are clouds on the horizon, the captain stays on the ship.”

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The European Union on Thursday hit Alphabet’s Google with fines totaling 890 million euros ($1 billion), in a move that risks escalating tensions with the United States.

The EU fined the U.S. tech giant 460 million euros for illegally favoring its own services – such as Google Flights and Google Hotels – over rivals in search results.

A second fine of 430 million euros was levied because Google barred app developers from showing consumers offers, free of charge, outside the app store Google Play, the European Commission said in a statement.

The fines underscored Europe’s determination to prevent Big Tech companies from thwarting rivals, defying U.S. criticism and retaliatory tariff ​threats.

“After this decision, we want to make sure that there is more competition and also other companies are able to innovate,” EU tech chief Henna Virkkunen said.

A senior EU official said Google still favors its own services, though the second fine covers only the period from March 2024 to December 2025.

‘Not fair competition’

The U.S. tech giant criticized the EU findings and said it might take the Commission to court. It also accused the EU of dismantling safety protections on Google Play through its enforcement.

“To comply, we are having to strip away real-time Search features Europeans love – like instant pricing and direct availability for hotels, flights, and restaurants – and dismantle safety protections on Google Play,” Google President of Global Affairs Kent Walker said in a statement.

“This isn’t fair competition; it’s product degradation driven by a small group of self-serving complainants, with European businesses and consumers taking the hit,” Walker noted.

“Regulation should improve products, not make them worse.”

The fines land just days before the first anniversary of a tariff deal between Washington and Brussels that had eased trade tensions.

President Donald Trump’s administration has repeatedly accused Brussels of targeting U.S. tech firms and has threatened retaliatory tariffs.

U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said the fines and other EU actions undermined hopes for smoother trade ties, warning they “pose a real risk to the continuation of transatlantic stability with respect to trade.”

Greer said in a statement noting a recent record loan to Airbus from the EU lending arm: “It becomes clear that the EU continues to ​target the most competitive U.S. companies.” He did not mention any U.S. plans to retaliate.

‘Constructive’ talks to avoid more penalties

The penalties are the largest yet against a single company under the Digital Markets Act (DMA), the EU’s signature tech competition law.

In 2025, the bloc fined Meta 200 million euros and Apple 500 million euros under the same rules.

The DMA, which took effect in 2024, aims to curb what Brussels views as Big Tech’s excesses and ensure fair competition in the digital economy. Washington firmly objects to the DMA and other EU tech regulations.

Under the DMA, the EU can fine companies up to 10% of their global turnover for violations.

An EU official said Thursday’s penalties amount to just 0.22% of Google’s turnover.

The Commission warned the fines could grow further, threatening “periodic penalty payments” if Google fails to comply within 60 days.

“The best products should succeed because they’re better, not because they’re owned by the company running the search engine,” EU antitrust chief Teresa Ribera said in a statement.

The Commission still pointed to a “constructive dialogue” with Google and significant progress made to comply with the DMA, indicating that daily penalties for non-compliance are likely off the table.

“Google has proposed and started testing changes to how it presents its ⁠own services on ‌Google Search ‌for free services such as shopping, hotels and flights,” the Commission said, calling it substantial progress.

“The ⁠Commission also notes that Google has proposed and started testing changes to ‌how it presents shopping ads and content related services, such as sports,” it said.

The EU watchdog also said Google may apply the principles of Thursday’s decision ​to its AI-generated summaries known as AI Overviews and ⁠AI Mode and that talks would continue to this end.

Google’s changes to its ⁠steering terms on Google Play received a tentative thumbs up from the Commission.

“These constitute good progress towards compliance and will also ⁠be assessed in light of ​the cease and desist order of today’s decision,” it said.

EU ‘discriminatory’ rules

Google is no stranger to EU fines.

Between 2017 and 2019, Brussels hit the company with penalties totaling 8.2 billion euros, and in September last year imposed a separate 2.95-billion-euro fine under different antitrust rules – a move that prompted Trump to threaten retaliation.

The EU appeared unfazed Thursday by the prospect of a fresh U.S. response.

Brussels’ duty, Ribera told reporters, is to “ensure that the regulation that is being adopted by our sovereign institutions is fully enforced and respected.”

She noted that U.S. authorities were pursuing “very similar approaches” in comparable cases of their own.

The EU and the United States agreed earlier this year to address friction over the bloc’s digital rules through talks, though those discussions have yet to begin.

Greer said Washington was seeking to “resolve our concerns” about the EU rules through dialogue, but that “real dialogue can only take place during a cease-fire.”

The fines against Google had been expected for months, the product of a probe launched in 2024, though Brussels has faced accusations of delaying the decision out of concern for relations with Washington.

On Tuesday, some 25 Republican lawmakers urged Trump in a letter to use tools such as trade investigations against the EU’s “discriminatory” digital rules – a move that could trigger higher tariffs.

Virkkunen insisted Europe would not back down.

“We are very committed to our rules,” she told journalists.

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Two Chinese supertankers carrying a combined 4 million barrels of ⁠Saudi Arabian oil exited the Red Sea via the Bab ⁠el-Mandeb Strait on Thursday, shipping data showed, apparently escaping a blockade on shipments of Saudi oil by Yemen’s Houthi rebels even as other vessels came under attack.

The Red Sea blockade by the Iran-aligned Houthis ​is worsening global energy supply disruption, coming at the same time the key Strait of ​Hormuz ⁠has practically shut due to the resumption of fighting between the U.S. and Iran.

The Singaporean-flagged VLCC Xin Long Yang, which made a U-turn and paused in the middle of the Red Sea on Tuesday, resumed its journey southward late on Wednesday, LSEG shipping data showed. The Chinese-flagged VLCC Cosnew Lake followed and both tankers exited the Red Sea later on Thursday, the data showed.

The Xin Long Yang was heading to the port of Qinzhou in southern Guangxi province, while Cosnew Lake is expected to discharge its cargo at the port of Huizhou, in the southern Chinese province of Guangdong, the data showed.

Both vessels indicated through their automatic identification system transmitters that there were Chinese crew onboard, the data showed. The vessels are chartered by Unipec, the trading arm of Asia’s largest refiner Sinopec, and loaded crude at Saudi Arabia’s port of Yanbu ⁠earlier ⁠this week.

At least two other VLCCs chartered by Unipec and scheduled to enter the Red Sea and load Saudi crude at the Yanbu port later this month slowed their advance toward Bab el-Mandeb and were making small circles in the Gulf of Aden, LSEG data showed.

Hormuz transits

Earlier on Thursday, the Houthis announced they had carried out a military operation targeting two Saudi oil tankers they said violated the blockade.

Shipping data showed both tankers supply crude to Saudi power plants and local refineries. The Saudi Arabian news agency SPA later said the Saudi vessel Encelia was attacked in the Red Sea and ⁠was on fire, though the crew was safe.

Because of the Middle East conflict, shipping traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb declined and movement through the Strait of Hormuz remained subdued on Wednesday, data from LSEG and data analytics firm Kpler showed.

Twenty-seven vessels, including five oil tankers and a liquefied petroleum ​gas (LPG) carrier, crossed the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on Wednesday, LSEG data showed, down from 38 the previous day. Data from analytics ​firm Vortexa showed one VLCC exited Bab el-Mandeb with its transponder switched off on Wednesday.

Two VLCCs emerged from the Strait of Hormuz on Thursday, LSEG data showed. The New Giant, carrying 2 million barrels of Iraqi ⁠crude, was headed ‌for the ‌eastern Chinese port of Rizhao, while the Rotterdam Energy, loaded with 2 million barrels ⁠of Upper Zakum crude from the United Arab Emirates (UAE), appeared off Fujairah, according ‌to LSEG and Kpler data.

Three commodity vessels transited the Strait of Hormuz on Wednesday, down from four a day earlier and 18 the previous Wednesday, ​according to Kpler.

Two vessels entered the strait ⁠from the Gulf of Oman, including a tanker carrying dirty petroleum products that sailed through ⁠Iranian waters and a dry bulk carrier operating in dark mode, with its tracking signal switched off, Kpler data showed.

As ⁠of July 20, there ​were 253 laden tankers in the Gulf, including 102 oil tankers, 64 liquefied natural gas carriers and 66 liquefied petroleum gas carriers, according to LSEG data.

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Brent oil shot to more than $100 per barrel on Thursday, its highest level since May, extending a five-day rally after attacks on two Saudi ‌oil tankers in the Red Sea heightened concerns over global oil supply disruptions.

Houthi rebels in Yemen have widened the conflict by targeting vessels carrying Saudi oil in the Bab el-Mandeb strait, after declaring ​a naval blockade on Saudi shipments, raising the prospect of ​disruptions at another key oil transit chokepoint alongside the Strait ⁠of Hormuz.

At the same time, sharp drops for two of Wall Street’s most influential companies, Alphabet and Tesla, yanked the U.S. stock market lower.

The S&P 500 sank 1.3% and is heading toward its first back-to-back weekly loss since March. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 537 points, or 1%, as of 12:50 p.m. Eastern time, and the Nasdaq composite was 2.2% lower.

Stocks fell under the pressure of rising oil prices, which raise costs for businesses and erode their customers’ ability to spend. The price for a barrel of Brent crude oil, the international standard, jumped 7.1% to $100.74.

It earlier touched the highest price since May for the most actively traded Brent contract in the market. The cause: attacks on two Saudi oil tankers in the Red Sea. That threatens another avenue that oil companies use to move their crude from the Middle East to customers worldwide, along with the Strait of Hormuz.

Underscoring the importance of the sea route for the economy, President Donald Trump threatened “major military punishment” against the Houthi rebels, who are backed by Iran, if they keep attacking ships.

It was just a few weeks ago that Brent had dropped below $72 per barrel, roughly back to where it was before the United States and Israel attacked Iran to begin their war, on hopes that the Strait of Hormuz would fully reopen to oil tankers.

The jumps in oil prices are threatening to worsen inflation, just when it had begun to decelerate by more than economists expected. That in turn could push the Federal Reserve (Fed) and other central banks to raise interest rates, which would slow economies and undercut prices for stocks and other investments.

The European Central Bank (ECB) held its main interest rates steady at its meeting Thursday. But traders are banking on a nearly 38% chance the Fed will hike the federal funds rate at its meeting next week. That’s up from the nearly 12% probability seen a week ago, according to data from CME Group.

An increase by the Fed would be the first since 2023.

Higher oil prices pushed the yield of the 10-year Treasury up to 4.70% from 4.67% late Wednesday and from just 3.97% before the war with Iran began. That’s a significant increase, and it’s already brought long-term U.S. mortgage rates to their highest levels in nearly a year.

Gasoline prices tend to rise with oil prices, and a gallon of regular costs an average of $4.09 across the United States, according to AAA. That’s still below highs of roughly $4.56 in May, but it was at just $3.93 a month ago.

On Wall Street, stocks of companies with big fuel bills fell to sharp losses on worries about higher expenses.

American Airlines fell 8.4% even though it reported a much bigger profit for the spring than analysts expected, something that usually sends a stock’s price higher. It raised airfares, which helped it offset its higher fuel prices, during the latest quarter.

Southwest Airlines lost 4.4%, even though it also reported better profit and revenue than analysts expected. It wrung more profit out of each $1 of its revenue during the spring, even with higher fuel prices.

One of the heaviest weights on the U.S. stock market was Tesla, which tumbled 14% after Elon Musk’s electric-vehicle company reported a weaker profit for the latest quarter than analysts expected. Because it’s one of the largest stocks in the S&P 500 by market value, its stock has more influence on the index than nearly every other.

One of the few that’s larger is Alphabet, and its stock fell 6.7% even though the parent company of Google delivered stronger profit and revenue than analysts expected.

Investors seemed to focus instead on how much Alphabet said it’s set to spend on artificial intelligence investments. Alphabet raised its forecast for capital spending over the full year after its investments last quarter doubled to nearly $45 billion from a year earlier.

CEO Sundar Pichai said AI helped its cloud revenue growth accelerate to 82% last quarter, but unease nevertheless remains about whether all the money going into AI will pay off in terms of productivity and profits.

Such worries have been shaking the AI industry broadly in recent weeks, leading to big swings for the overall stock market.

In stock markets abroad, indexes fell sharply in Europe as oil prices jumped. France’s CAC 40 dropped 1.6% for one of the larger losses.

Indexes in Asia were stronger earlier in the day, and South Korea’s Kospi jumped 4.4%.

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