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Türkiye’s foreign trade gap hits $12.1 billion in April

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Türkiye’s foreign trade deficit widened in April to slightly over $12 billion, official data showed on Thursday, as imports outweighed exports despite shipments also surging in the month.

The foreign trade gap stood at $12.09 billion last month, up 22.3% year-over-year, according to data from the Turkish Statistical Institute (TurkStat).

The country’s exports totaled $20.8 billion, rising 7.8%, while imports amounted to $32.89 billion, up 12.7% annually.

The export-import coverage ratio was at 63.2% last month.

“Despite the negative conditions and increasing uncertainties in the global economy, our exports in April 2025 increased by 7.8% to $20.8 billion. Thus, the second-highest April export was reached,” said Trade Minister Ömer Bolat.

“As of April 2025, our annualized exports increased by $6.9 billion compared to the same month of the previous year and reached an all-time high of $264.9 billion,” he added.

The foreign trade deficit, excluding energy products and non-monetary gold, was $6.16 billion in April.

During the first four-month period, exports were $86.1 billion, up 3.7%, and imports were $120.7 billion, up 6.6%.

The fourth-month foreign trade gap came in at $34.58 billion, up 14.7% compared to the same period last year.

Commenting further on data, Bolat said on X that the exports continued to increase despite the annualized imports in the EU remaining flat, the uncertainty brought by tariff increases, and the tough competition brought about by China’s continued reduction of export prices.

“As the government, we will resolutely continue our policies to increase exports of goods and services and protect domestic producers, thus ensuring a stable course in the current account and strengthening macroeconomic stability,” Bolat noted.

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Economy

Istanbul gears up to host 3rd Global Islamic Economy Summit

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The largest Turkish metropolis, Istanbul, is gearing up to host international economic and finance actors for the third edition of Global Islamic Economy Summit, set to take place this week.

Decision-makers shaping the future of the Islamic economy, international leaders, economic authorities, investors, financial institutions, academics and sector representatives will descend into the city between June 3-6 for the summit.

Held this year under the theme “Capital in Islamic Economics: Structuring Wealth for Sustainable Development,” the summit will host important global discussions on ethical finance, the real economy, sustainable development and inclusive economic growth.

The 3rd Global Islamic Economy Summit, organized by the AlBaraka Forum for Islamic Economy under the AlBaraka Summits Türkiye framework, is being held in strategic partnership with the Presidency’s Investment and Finance Office, the Türkiye Wealth Fund (TWF), the Istanbul Financial Center (IFC), the Islamic Cooperation Youth Forum (ICYF) and Ibn Haldun University.

The summit, held at Halkbank’s headquarters in IFC, aims to further strengthen Türkiye’s strategic position in the global Islamic finance and economy ecosystem.

New dimensions of global economic transformation

As transformations in global economic and financial systems reshape the structure and use of capital, the Islamic economic approach treats capital not only as a financial instrument but as a value integrated with ethical responsibility, social benefit and productive economic activity.

Within this perspective, the 3rd Global Islamic Economy Summit aims to comprehensively examine the role of capital in Islamic economics through its core principles, strategic approaches and sectoral applications.

The summit will also highlight topics such as strengthening productive capital circulation, increasing inclusive economic participation and expanding ethical finance models that support sustainable development.

In an evaluation regarding the summit, Abdullah Saleh Kamel, chairperson of the board of trustees of the AlBaraka Forum for Islamic Economy, stated that the summit reflects their belief that capital should serve a higher purpose.

“Productive growth, social balance and sustainable development. Türkiye provides a strong foundation to advance this global dialogue on wealth, responsibility and real economic value,” he told Anadolu Agency (AA).

Finance, technology, sustainability

The summit is expected to host a number of prominent names in the sector and top Turkish finance officials, including Treasury and Finance Minister Mehmet Şimşek.

The attendees also include Burak Dağlıoğlu, the head of the Presidential Investment and Finance Office; Arda Ermut, general manager of the Türkiye Wealth Fund; Ahmet Ihsan Erdem, general manager of the Istanbul Financial Center; and Bilal Erdoğan, chairperson of the board of trustees of the Ilim Yayma Foundation.

Over the four-day summit, numerous panels, sessions and strategic meetings will be held with the participation of central banks, economic administrations, international investment organizations, global banking groups, academics and financial technology leaders.

Topics to be discussed include global economic and capital flows, Islamic banking and participation finance, Islamic capital markets and sukuk, waqf systems and social finance, artificial intelligence and digital financial technologies, fintech and Islamic digital investment tools, sustainable development and ethical investment models, entrepreneurship and SME financing, and international economic integration models.

One of the most notable highlights of the summit is set to be the launch of the AlBaraka Strategic Islamic Economy Report. The event also features the 1 million Saudi riyals ($270,000) Saleh Kamel award.

Moreover, beyond academic and sectoral discussions, the summit also aims to serve as a strategic meeting point where international economic cooperation can be developed.

New collaborations are expected to be established through memorandum of understanding signing ceremonies during the program, while special networking meetings, receptions and gala events will also bring international participants together.

Previously held in major cities such as Istanbul, London and Medina, the AlBaraka Summits are regarded as one of the world’s leading international platforms in Islamic economics and participation finance.

Each year, the summit brings together senior public officials, central banks, financial institutions, investment funds, academics, and media organizations from around the world, aiming to further increase the visibility of Islamic economics in global economic transformation processes.

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China’s factory activity flattens in May amid Iran war pressure

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China’s factory activity flatlined in May following two months of expansion, official data showed Sunday, as weaker demand and soaring energy costs due to the war in the Middle East weighed on growth and output.

The manufacturing purchasing manager’s index (PMI) – a key measure of industrial activity – was 50.0 in May, according to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).

The 50.0 mark separates expansion from contraction. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg had predicted a reading of 50.0 as well.

The figure slipped from 50.3 in April and 50.4 in March.

The new orders sub-index dropped to 49.9 from 50.6 in April, while the sub-index on production edged down to 51.2 from April’s 51.5. The sub-index for raw material stockpiles fell to 48.6 from 49.3 in April.

China has been less affected by the global energy shock from the Iran war than many other countries, which face inflationary pressures as oil prices have surged due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, through which a fifth of the world’s oil is shipped in peacetime.

Analysts say China’s ample oil reserves and diversified sources of energy have helped the world’s second-largest economy weather the war nearly unscathed.

However, Chinese factories are facing higher costs with the prices of raw materials rising, particularly in the energy and chemical sectors.

Both supply and demand in industries including petroleum, rubber and plastics showed “continued weakness,” said NBS statistician Huo Lihui.

Meanwhile, exports remain crucial for China’s broader economy, according to banking giant HSBC.

While China’s exports to the U.S. have dropped on an annual basis during most months in the past year, its global exports have been robust, particularly to Europe and Southeast Asia.

Hopes for a recovery in exports to the U.S. have risen following President Donald Trump’s summit with Chinese leader Xi Jinping in Beijing in mid-May, and after the two countries agreed to set up separate boards of trade and investment.

Autos, technology and artificial intelligence-related exports have been helping to drive export growth, but some economists also point to concerns over the broader economy. Domestic demand remains sluggish in the wake of a years-long property sector slump that has clobbered consumer confidence and investment.

“Domestic demand is lagging, but high-end manufacturing and exports are holding the line,” Robin Xing, Chief China Economist at Morgan Stanley, wrote in a research note last week.

Chinese leaders have set an annual economic growth target of 4.5% to 5% for this year. That’s the lowest target since 1991, albeit only slightly lower than the “around 5%” target set in 2025.

Morgan Stanley said China will still likely meet its 2026 target, but oil prices and the easing of uncertainties around global oil supplies would be key factors determining where things might be heading.

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China touts stronger trade ties, says Canada can surpass export target

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China’s foreign minister said Friday that Canada could surpass its goal of increasing exports to China by 50% by 2030, signaling potential for deeper trade ties during talks with Canadian Foreign Minister Anita Anand.

Wang said he thought Canada’s exports to China could increase by 100%, building on the momentum between the countries.

“Canada is focused on growing our economy and diversifying our trading relationships,” Anand said during the meeting. “The Canada-China economic relationship is significant,” she said.

Wang is on a three-day visit to Canada, the first visit by a Chinese foreign minister in a decade and the latest step to improve ties. On Friday afternoon, he shook hands with Prime Minister Mark Carney ahead of a ⁠private ⁠meeting. Canada and China struck an initial trade deal in January to slash tariffs on electric vehicles and canola, when Carney became the first Canadian prime minister to visit China since 2017. China is Canada’s second-largest trading partner, and Carney has sought to reduce his country’s overwhelming reliance on the United States after U.S. President Donald Trump imposed tariffs on Canada, a longtime ally. Amid an ongoing trade war with the U.S., Carney has vowed to double Canadian exports to ⁠other markets in the next decade and signed more than 20 economic and security deals in the last year.

On Thursday, Carney delivered a speech in New York calling for a “new partnership” with the ​U.S., saying that a stronger Canada would “help make America great again.”

The Chinese ​foreign minister’s Ottawa visit comes after the Canadian warship HMCS Charlottetown completed a routine transit through the Taiwan Strait on May 23. China said ⁠on Friday it ‌firmly ‌opposes any attempt by any country to undermine its sovereignty ⁠and security “under the pretext of freedom of navigation.”

Earlier this ‌month, Conservative lawmaker Michael Chong travelled to Taiwan, where he met with Taiwanese President Dr. Lai Ching-te ​and other senior officials. Chong said ⁠in a statement his visit was intended to “show solidarity with ⁠a democracy at the front lines of intimidation from the People’s Republic of ⁠China” and to ​assert Canada’s sovereignty, after a warning from the Chinese ambassador to Canada regarding politicians visiting Taiwan.

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Top tourism body says Turkish applicants ‘shut out’ of Schengen system

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The top tourism body said on Friday that Turkish applicants were being effectively “shut out” of the Schengen visa application system, citing persistent appointment shortages and alleged technical manipulation of booking platforms.

The remarks by the Turkish Travel Agencies Association (TÜRSAB) came after data showed Türkiye was the second-largest source of Schengen visa applications worldwide in 2025.

According to statistics published by the European Commission, applications to Schengen Area countries reached 11.93 million last year, an increase of 1.8% from 2024.

Türkiye accounted for nearly 1.27 million applications, ranking second after China. The figure compared to 1.17 million in 2024 and just over 1 million in 2023.

The rejection rate for Turkish applicants stood at 14.6% last year, up 0.1 percentage points from 2024.

The TÜRSAB said in a statement that the data confirms a structural access problem rather than a lack of demand.

Its Chair Firuz Bağlıkaya said Turkish citizens are often unable to even enter the application process because of limited appointment availability.

He argued that the system itself has become a barrier.

For years, Turkish citizens and businesses have complained about the EU’s visa system, including long appointment wait times, the issuance of very short-term visas and high rejection rates.

Bağlıkaya pointed to sharp declines in applications to key destinations such as Italy and France, which are among the most popular countries for organized tour programs.

According to EU data, applications to Italy fell by 32.3% year-over-year, while France recorded a 6% decline.

Bağlıkaya attributed the drop to reduced access to visa appointments, rather than weakening travel interest.

“Due to current practices, our citizens are shut out of the system before they even get a chance to submit a visa application,” he noted.

He further claimed that the appointment system is being exploited, alleging that limited time slots are rapidly captured by automated bot accounts and later resold at significantly higher prices.

Bağlıkaya said figures reportedly were reaching up to 1,000 euros ($1,165) per appointment in urgent cases.

“A stop must be put to this situation,” he stressed.

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Economy

Diversified supply, infrastructure shield Türkiye from energy shocks

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Diversified supply routes and infrastructure assets have helped Türkiye maintain energy stability despite disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz, while also reinforcing its position as a key link between producers and European markets.

The key transit route for roughly a fifth of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas supply, the Strait of Hormuz was effectively shut after the U.S. and Israel launched strikes on Iran in late February, causing what is described as the biggest energy crisis ever, which sent global prices higher.

Data compiled from the Energy Market Regulatory Authority (EPDK) indicates that Türkiye’s supply structure remained broadly stable in the first quarter of the year.

Natural gas imports reached 19.2 billion cubic meters (bcm) in the January-March period, while crude oil and petroleum product imports totaled 3.32 million tons.

The U.S., Russia and Azerbaijan remained the leading suppliers of gas. In January, the U.S. accounted for approximately 35.7% of imports, followed closely by Russia at 35% and Azerbaijan at 13.4%. In February, the U.S. retained the top position, while Russia regained the lead in March.

On the oil side, Russia continued to dominate imports across the quarter, while Iraq, Kazakhstan and Saudi Arabia also held significant shares. Russia supplied roughly half of Türkiye’s crude imports in both January and March.

Despite global volatility, Türkiye did not experience major disruptions in its energy supply, benefiting from its diversified portfolio and extensive pipeline infrastructure, which also positions the country as a transit hub for regional energy flows.

A key component of this system is the southern Ceyhan Terminal, which serves as a major export gateway for crude oil from Iraq and Azerbaijan to global markets.

Crude oil is transported to Türkiye primarily through pipelines rather than maritime imports alone, including the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) pipeline and the Iraq-Türkiye Crude Oil Pipeline. These routes reduce reliance on maritime chokepoints and provide alternative corridors for regional producers.

According to data from the state oil and natural gas pipeline operator BOTAŞ, nearly 30.9 million barrels of oil were transported through the BTC pipeline in the first two months of the year.

The pipeline stands out as a critical route that delivers Caspian oil to global markets through a path outside of Russia and Iran.

The Iraq-Türkiye pipeline, which runs from Kirkuk to Ceyhan, resumed operations in March. With a daily capacity of around 1.5 million barrels, initial flows were expected to rise from 170,000 barrels per day toward 250,000 barrels.

On the gas side, Türkiye continues to act as a key energy corridor between producer countries and Europe, importing gas from Russia, Azerbaijan and Iran through long-term pipeline agreements.

Russia supplies gas via the Blue Stream pipeline, while the TurkStream system, with a total capacity of 31.5 billion cubic meters, delivers gas both for domestic consumption and European exports.

Azerbaijan’s gas flows through the Baku-Tbilisi-Erzurum pipeline and the Southern Gas Corridor, which includes TANAP and TAP, linking Caspian production directly to European markets. TANAP carries about 16 billion cubic meters annually, while TAP has an initial capacity of 10 billion cubic meters, expandable to 20 billion.

Türkiye has also strengthened regional interconnections through the Iğdır-Nakhchivan pipeline, which supplies gas to Azerbaijan’s exclave, reducing its dependence on Iranian deliveries. It boasts a capacity to carry 2 million cubic meters a day.

Meanwhile, Iranian gas continues to flow to Türkiye under long-term agreements via the Iran-Türkiye pipeline, which has a technical capacity of around 14 billion cubic meters per year.

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Economy

Türkiye heads into data-heavy June with eyes on growth, inflation

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Türkiye’s financial markets are heading into a data-heavy June period following the nine-day Eid al-Adha holiday break, with investors closely watching growth figures, inflation readings and a key central bank interest rate decision.

The calendar includes first-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) data, monthly inflation figures and the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting of the Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye (CBRT).

Data on Monday will provide a snapshot of economic momentum at the start of 2026 that has been marked by the Iran war, which triggered the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a key transit route for roughly a fifth of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas supply.

That caused what is described as the biggest energy crisis ever, which sent global prices higher, pressuring countries that heavily rely on imports.

The Turkish Statistical Institute (TurkStat) is scheduled to release data that is likely to show the economy expanded by about 2.7% year-over-year in the first quarter of the year, according to surveys.

The economy grew 3.6% in 2025, with fourth-quarter growth recorded at 3.4%, extending a growth streak to 22 consecutive quarters.

Inflation, trade, labor data

Inflation, due next Friday, will be one of the most closely watched indicators.

Consumer prices rose 4.18% month-over-month and 32.37% on an annual basis in April, mainly driven by pressures amid the fallout from the Iran war.

The domestic producer index rose 3.17% month-over-month in April for an annual increase of 28.59%.

The central bank has flagged rising inflation risks, saying it’s closely monitoring the fallout of the conflict and ‌potential second-round effects.

The bank earlier this month raised its end-2026 interim inflation target to 24% from 16% and lifted its end-2027 target to 15% from 9%. It set its end-2028 interim target at 9%.

A day earlier, Trade Minister Ömer Bolat is expected to announce the May foreign trade data.

April exports rose 22.3% year-over-year to $25.4 billion despite the challenging global environment.

The figure marked the second-highest monthly export figure in Türkiye’s history.

On the same day, the TurkStat will release April labor market statistics.

The unemployment rate fell to 8.1% in March, down 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, with the number of unemployed declining by 96,000 to 2.87 million.

Industrial production data for April is scheduled for June 10, following a March decline of 0.8% month-over-month and 1.1% year-over-year.

Central bank decision in spotlight

Markets will closely watch the CBRT’s June 11 policy meeting for signals on the monetary stance.

At its previous meeting, the central bank held its benchmark one-week repo rate steady at 37%.

In its last statement, the bank said geopolitical risks and energy price volatility continued to pose uncertainty for inflation.

It said policymakers were closely monitoring these factors for their impact on economic activity and the disinflation outlook.

Fiscal, sectoral data

Other data releases include financial investment returns, budget balance figures and sectoral confidence indicators throughout the month.

On June 12, the CBRT will publish the current account balance figures.

The balance registered a $9.67 billion deficit in March. Excluding energy and gold, the shortfall stood at nearly $3.89 billion.

The Treasury and Finance Ministry will be releasing the May budget figures on June 15.

Data from April showed a deficit of TL 338.7 billion and a year-to-date shortfall of TL 758.8 billion.

Additional data releases will include construction and services output, agricultural producer prices and housing sales.

Residential property sales in April rose 2.6% year-over-year to 126,808 units, according to TurkStat.

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