Economy
Fatih Birol: Turkish economist shaping global energy politics
From a 13-month contract at the International Energy Agency (IEA) in 1995 to leading the institution that world leaders now consult for guidance, Fatih Birol plays a dominant role in shaping global energy politics amid rising insecurity, geopolitical fragmentation and the push toward a clean transition.
After working for 20 years in different positions at the IEA, the Turkish energy economist has been heading the institution since 2015 as the executive director. The Paris-based organization’s forecasts and scenarios influence investment decisions worth billions, and its warnings can unsettle governments.
Born in Ankara in 1958 to a military doctor and a housewife, Birol describes a childhood marked less by ambition than by family cohesion.
His father, who came from humble beginnings, worked multiple jobs to support the household. “We were known as the happy family,” Birol told Anadolu Agency (AA). “Having your parents beside you gives a child confidence.” He spent his childhood between family, school and playing football in the streets.
Birol was, by his own account, an average student. At the Istanbul Technical University, where he studied electrical engineering despite his father’s wish that he become a doctor, he says he was “almost average.” The lesson he draws today is simple: academic brilliance is not destiny. “If you love your work, you can succeed.”
For a time, his ambitions lay far from energy economics. He flirted seriously with cinema, making short films and working as an assistant director before moving to Vienna to attend the Film Academy. But then reality intervened. To make ends meet, he shoveled snow and took manual jobs. “I realized that life was not as easy as it seemed – especially financially,” he said.
A scholarship from the Austrian government redirected him toward energy economics. Birol received an MSc and a Ph.D. in energy economics from the Technical University of Vienna.
31 years at IEA
An oil analyst position at OPEC followed. The pay was good and the contract was permanent. Yet something felt narrow. “I wanted to work on global issues, especially those affecting developing countries,” he said. So, he made a decision that still defines his narrative: left a lifetime contract for a 13-month position at the IEA.
“I chose the 13-month contract,” he said. “And this year marks my 31st at the IEA.”
He joined the IEA at an entry-level position in 1995. That same year, an election for executive director of the institution was underway. Birol recalled what he thought back at the time: why not me as the head of the IEA, one day?
Over the years, he rose to chief economist and in 2015, became the agency’s first internal candidate to be elected executive director by unanimous vote. He was reelected for a third term in 2022.
On the day he was elected in 2015, he asked for a moment to call home. Birol wanted to call his father, but could not as he was ill. He spoke instead to his mother, who recently turned 90 and whom he still calls every morning, no matter where he is.
Despite international honors – including France’s the Legion of Honour, the country’s highest distinction and the Japanese Emperor’s Order of the Rising Sun – he said the greatest happiness lies in telling his mother about them. “Making her happy is what matters the most.”
Energy, geopolitics
Birol’s tenure as the head of the IEA has coincided with a decade in which energy security, climate policy and great-power rivalry have converged. He meets world leaders regularly and shares the IEA’s forecasts with them.
He speaks often about data. The IEA’s authority, he noted, rests on numbers rather than ideology. “We always, always look at the data,” he said. “Not emotions. Not politics, not ideology but data.”
Beyond energy, Birol’s long-standing passion remains for Galatasaray, a football club in Istanbul. He tries to schedule around match fixtures and even watches games at 3 a.m. if necessary, especially when he travels. “If I don’t watch, I can’t sleep,” he admitted.
His mornings begin early as he rarely sleeps late and always with Turkish tea. “I cannot live without Rize tea,” he said, referring to the black tea produced in a province in the Black Sea region of Türkiye.
A routine day of his mostly continues with back-to-back meetings.
“I have been in this sector for very long years but have not seen a period when energy and geopolitics were so deeply intertwined. Geopolitics casts a dark shadow over energy,” he said.
It is his philosophy of hard work that has carried him from snow-covered streets in Vienna to the inner circle of global energy diplomacy – proof that a 13-month contract can sometimes reshape an institution, and perhaps a global industry.
At 67, with more than four decades in the field, Birol also offered younger professionals a measured credo: align passion with economic stability. Passion alone can be precarious; money alone can be empty. The two together, he believes, sustain a career.
European airlines are confronting their most serious test since the COVID-19 crisis, as the war in Iran drives up jet fuel costs and disrupts travel across the Middle East, threatening the summer holiday season.
Carriers have largely been riding out the crisis with hedges that have tamed costs, even as jet fuel prices have risen nearly 84% since the start of the conflict on Feb. 28, but they could face shortages if the war does not end soon.
“There is a risk that we’ll see rationing of fuel supply, particularly in Asia and Europe,” Willie Walsh, head of the International Air Transport Association (IATA), told Reuters on Tuesday, while adding that supply remained robust for now.
Walsh said, however, that the situation was not yet as bad as the disruption caused by the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, which led to travel demand plummeting and hundreds of billions of dollars in losses for the aviation sector.
“I think COVID was on a completely different scale,” Walsh added. “What we’re seeing here is, in effect, a cost issue for the airlines. The underlying demand for aviation remains robust, and that’s a positive.”
Jet fuel price hedges start to run out
The war has hit airline shares, with on-again-off-again peace talks to end the conflict and reopen the critical Strait of Hormuz to normalize global oil and gas flows in what is the worst energy crisis in decades.
Airlines are now warning about their hedges – which help lock in set prices – running out, with outlooks increasingly murky as people delay booking travel or make plans closer to home to avoid potential disruption and higher fares.
Sweden’s Energy Minister Ebba Busch on Tuesday fired an “early warning” about potential jet fuel shortages despite good current supply, cautioning Swedes to think through travel plans.
Ryanair CEO Michael O’Leary, however, played down concerns. “We think the risk of a supply disruption is receding,” he told Reuters, citing conversations with suppliers across Europe earlier in the week.
European budget airline Wizz Air CEO Jozsef Varadi said on Monday that summer bookings were strong. However, easyJet and tour operator TUI announced drops in forward bookings and issued profit warnings in recent weeks.
Varadi, meanwhile, cautioned that even an end to the conflict would not quickly resolve high fuel prices.
“Even if the war is stopped in Iran, I don’t think this is going to put the fuel price back to what it used to be two months ago,” he told reporters in London.
Air France-KLM, British Airways-owner IAG and Lufthansa are set to report first-quarter results starting this week. Between them, they have raised prices and cut flight capacity in response to the war.
Winners, losers
Gulf airlines have been the hardest hit, with data from Cirium Ascend showing that flights operated by Middle Eastern operators dropped 50% year-on-year in March, while bookings for the second and third quarters connecting via the main Gulf hubs are down 42.5%.
Global passenger capacity, however, remains up near 2% so far in 2026 versus 2025, it said, underscoring wider resilience.
The crisis has, though, dampened margins and sharpened the gap between weaker and stronger players. Some have dodged the impact. Finland’s flag carrier Finnair said the crisis had so far had a net positive impact, with more demand for its Asian flights. Budget airline Norwegian on Tuesday brushed off jet fuel supply risks.
Cirium Ascend’s head of valuations, George Dimitroff, said airlines have adapted and evolved through various crises and agreed COVID-19 had been “a much bigger hit.”
“They’re much, much more agile now than they were in the previous decade and let alone two or three decades prior when they were pretty hopeless at it,” Dimitroff said.
Markets in Türkiye are set to focus on a busy economic calendar in May, with investors closely watching a series of key data releases, central bank messages and policy signals from senior economic officials.
Attention will initially turn to Trade Minister Ömer Bolat, who is expected to announce April foreign trade figures at an event in the Black Sea province of Ordu on Saturday. Goods exports stood at $21.9 billion in March, marking a roughly $1.5 billion decline compared with a year earlier. Imports rose 8.4% to $33.2 billion.
The decline in shipments had been attributed to the Middle East conflict, the Eid al-Fitr holiday and the calendar effect.
The Turkish Statistical Institute (TurkStat) will release April inflation data on Monday, a key indicator for markets assessing the pace of disinflation and future monetary policy.
The Iran war sent energy prices soaring, posing a challenge for import-heavy economies like Türkiye, where inflation still eased to 30.87% in March. Month-over-month, consumer prices rose 1.94%.
Investors will also monitor March industrial production data, due on May 8, after the index rose 2.6% month-over-month and 2.2% year-over-year in February.
On May 13, the Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye (CBRT) will publish March balance of payments data. Türkiye posted a current account deficit of $7.5 billion in February, while the current account excluding gold and energy recorded a $1.46 billion shortfall.
Housing sales data for April will be released on May 14. Total home sales in March declined 2.1% year-over-year to 113,367 units.
The Treasury and Finance Ministry is scheduled to announce the April central government budget data on May 15. In March, the budget showed a deficit of nearly TL 223 billion. Budget revenues totaled TL 1.23 trillion, while expenditures amounted to TL 1.46 trillion.
Additional data due on May 18 include consumer confidence and first quarter labor statistics. Consumer confidence edged up 0.5% in April to 85.5.
Markets will also watch a participation finance summit to be held on May 7 at the Istanbul Financial Center.
The event is expected to feature remarks from Vice President Cevdet Yılmaz, Banking Regulation and Supervision Agency (BDDK) Chair Şahap Kavcıoğlu, Investment and Finance Office President Burak Dağlıoğlu and Participation Banks Association of Türkiye Chair Mehmet Ali Akben.
Treasury and Finance Minister Mehmet Şimşek is also scheduled to speak in a special session.
Meanwhile, CBRT Governor Fatih Karahan will brief lawmakers at Parliament’s Planning and Budget Committee on May 5, with interest rates and inflation-fighting policies expected to dominate the agenda.
Karahan is set to unveil the central bank’s second inflation report of the year on May 14, a closely watched event that could provide fresh guidance on the inflation outlook, growth risks and the monetary policy path.
The CBRT in February kept its end-2026 interim inflation target at 16% but lifted its forecast range to 15%-21% from 13%-19% previously.
The central bank will conclude the month’s key releases with its Financial Stability Report on May 22, offering markets another readout on risks facing Türkiye’s financial system.
President Donald Trump’s approval rating has fallen to its lowest point of his current term as Americans grow more dissatisfied with his handling of the cost of living and the unpopular war with Iran, a new Reuters/Ipsos poll found.
The four-day poll completed Monday showed 34% of Americans approve of Trump’s performance in the White House, down from 36% in a prior Reuters/Ipsos survey, which was conducted from April 15 to 20.
The majority of responses were gathered prior to the Saturday night shooting at the White House Correspondents’ Association dinner, where Trump was due to speak.
Federal prosecutors have charged the accused shooter with attempting to assassinate the president.
Trump’s standing with the U.S. public has trended lower since taking office in January 2025, when 47% of Americans gave him a thumbs-up.
His popularity has taken a beating since the U.S. and Israel launched a war against Iran on Feb. 28 which has led to a surge in gasoline prices.
Only 22% of poll respondents approved of Trump’s performance on the cost of living, down from 25% in the prior Reuters/Ipsos poll.
The survey, which was conducted nationwide and online, gathered responses from 1,014 U.S. adults and had a margin of error of 3 percentage points.
Türkiye’s credit guarantee fund has inked a cooperation protocol with a major fund for Southeast Europe to develop a new program supporting sustainable agriculture, according to a report on Tuesday.
The Credit Guarantee Fund (KGF) has signed a cooperation protocol with the European Fund for Southeast Europe (EFSE) to develop a new guarantee program for sustainable agriculture, aimed at strengthening farmers’ and agricultural enterprises’ access to finance in Türkiye, the Anadolu Agency (AA) report said.
In his speech at the signing ceremony, KGF’s general manager, Hasan Basri Kurt, stated that they have taken significant steps toward establishing “a green list” and supporting agriculture through this method.
Kurt drew attention to the fact that the green list method had never been implemented in Turkish agriculture before, and said: “We see this as a project that will provide access to international funds, contribute to the development of Turkish agriculture, prevent waste in sustainable agriculture, increase efficiency and serve as a key solution.”
He noted that they have now launched the Agricultural Guarantee Program, and that a limit of approximately TL 30 billion (around $667 million) has been allocated across 10 banks, emphasizing that sustainability stands before them as an entirely new perspective.
“Thanks to this sustainable green list, banks in Türkiye will have access to international finance and will be able to offer loans to our farmers under better terms with lower funding costs,” he suggested.
EFSE Portfolio Manager Jasminka Begert highlighted the special importance of this project that promotes sustainable agriculture for them, and expressed pride in cooperating with KGF in this context.
Begert stated that while supporting the financing of sustainable agriculture, they share a common vision with KGF and said, “In addition to the urgency of the actions we aim to implement, we also see the opportunities it will create for Türkiye’s agricultural sector.”
“For this purpose, we aim to enhance both KGF’s and the participating banks’ technical capacity to properly finance sustainable agriculture, thereby supporting farmers’ more climate-smart, sustainable, and efficient production,” she added.
Scope of the protocol
Under the protocol, EFSE is expected to provide a fund of approximately 100 million euros (nearly $117 million) in Türkiye through certain banks, with the resources to be allocated to agricultural enterprises that meet “green list” criteria.
KGF will design a guarantee product for these loans, particularly aiming to facilitate access to finance for enterprises with insufficient collateral.
The Pilot Sustainable Agriculture Guarantee Program to be developed will provide partial credit guarantees for working capital and investment loans. Climate-friendly technologies, resource efficiency and environmentally sustainable agricultural activities will be encouraged. Green list criteria will be integrated into both the credit and guarantee processes, establishing a standardized approach to sustainable agricultural finance.
Additionally, a special technical support program for KGF has been designed under the cooperation. Within the program, the design and operational processes of KGF guarantee product will be improved, and the green list will be integrated into KGF’s Portfolio Guarantee System.
The “green list” is also known as sustainable agricultural activities and investments.
The list includes topics such as the production of protein crops, the improvement of agricultural input efficiency, water efficiency, zero tillage, organic production, beekeeping, circular agriculture, sustainable livestock, and aquaculture.
Energy prices are projected to jump 24% in 2026, reaching their highest level since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine four years ago, assuming the most severe disruptions from the Middle East war subside by May, the World Bank said on Tuesday.
Commodity prices could rise even further if hostilities in the region escalated and supply disruptions lasted longer than expected, the global development bank said in its latest Commodity Markets Outlook.
The bank said its baseline scenario assumed that shipping volumes through the crucial Strait of Hormuz waterway would gradually return to near pre-war levels by October, but said the risks were “markedly tilted” toward higher prices.
The bank’s baseline projects a 16% increase in overall commodity prices in 2026, given soaring energy and fertilizer prices and record-high prices for several key metals.
Oil prices continued to rise on Tuesday as efforts to end the U.S.-Iran war stalled and the Strait of Hormuz remained largely shut, keeping energy supplies, fertilizer and other commodities from the key Middle East producing region out of the reach of global buyers.
Attacks on energy infrastructure and shipping disruptions in the strait, which before the war carried 35% of global seaborne crude oil trade, have triggered the largest oil supply shock on record, the World Bank said.
It said Brent crude oil prices remained more than 50% higher in mid-April than they were at the start of the year. Brent oil is forecast to average $86 a barrel in 2026, up sharply from $69 a barrel in 2025, the bank said.
Oil prices could average as high as $115 a barrel this year if critical energy facilities suffered more war damage and export volumes were slow to recover, it said.
Brent crude futures for June were trading around $109 a barrel on Tuesday after hitting their highest close since April 7 on Monday.
“The war is hitting the global economy in cumulative waves: first through higher energy prices, then higher food prices, and finally, higher inflation, which will push up interest rates and make debt even more expensive,” World Bank chief economist Indermit Gill said.
The shock would hit the poorest hardest, adding to the woes of highly indebted developing countries.
Pressure seen on food supply
Fertilizer prices were projected to increase by 31% in 2026, driven by a 60% jump in the price of urea, the most widely used solid nitrogen fertilizer, which is produced by converting natural gas to produce ammonia and carbon dioxide.
The surge in fertilizer prices would fuel pressures on food supply, eroding farmers’ incomes and threatening future crop yields. The World Food Programme estimates that 45 million more people could face acute food insecurity this year if the war continues for a prolonged period.
The World Bank said inflation in developing economies was now projected to average 5.1% in 2026, under the baseline scenario, up from 4.7% last year and a full percentage point higher than pre-war forecasts. But inflation could rise as high as 5.8% in developing economies if the war was prolonged.
Growth would also take a big hit, the bank said. Developing economies were now projected to grow by just 3.6% in 2026, down from a pre-war forecast of 4% growth.
Belgian companies see Türkiye as deeply integrated with European economic value chains, Belgium’s ambassador to Ankara, Hendrik Van de Velde, said in a recent interview, ahead of a major trade mission led by Queen Mathilde scheduled for next month.
Van de Velde said the value chains of Turkish and European economies are “fully integrated,” adding that more than half of Türkiye’s economy is linked to European markets.
His remarks to Anadolu Agency (AA) came before the Belgian Economic Mission to Türkiye planned for May 10-14, with meetings in Istanbul and Ankara.
The delegation, led by Queen Mathilde, is expected to include about 450 participants, including roughly 250 business leaders.
The mission will focus on pharmaceuticals, logistics, sustainable energy, digital transformation, and defense and aviation cooperation.
Belgian officials also expect agreements in air transport, social security, agriculture and health care during the visit.
Van de Velde said Türkiye’s defense sector has grown significantly over the past decade and has become a major driver of the country’s economy.
The delegation, working with the Presidency of Defense Industries (SSB), plans visits to major defense firms including Baykar, Turkish Aerospace Industries (TAI) and Aselsan, he noted.
The ambassador said Belgium also has strong firms in the sector, though generally smaller in scale than their Turkish counterparts, adding that Belgium’s space and aviation cluster could align with Turkish manufacturing capacity.
On the logistics side, the bilateral trade volume between Türkiye and Belgium is valued at around 13 billion euros ($15.2 billion).
Belgium ranks fifth among EU countries in trade with Türkiye, according to the ambassador.
Van de Velde also said improved predictability for foreign direct investment (FDI) would support long-term cooperation, with Belgium serving as a hub in the eurozone and Türkiye acting as a transit gateway linking Asia, Europe and Africa.
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