The Turkish central bank is widely expected to keep its interest rates steady at the upcoming policy meeting on Thursday in response to the tense geopolitical situation and global market fallout, recent polls showed.

The Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye (CBRT) would thus halt its easing cycle and hold interest rates at 37%, most economists polled by Anadolu Agency (AA) and Reuters anticipate.

All 10 economists polled by Reuters forecast that the bank ‌will hold the benchmark rate on March 12. Similarly, a vast majority of economists in a poll by AA also expected that the CBRT would hold rates steady, with only one forecasting a small 50-basis-point cut.

Before the expanding regional conflict began shifting market expectations, the bank had previously been expected to continue an easing cycle that began in late 2024.

A year ago, the central ​bank temporarily reversed course and hiked rates, though it returned to rate cuts by mid-2025.

This week’s shift in ⁠market expectations also led to an upward revision in year-end rate forecasts. The median estimate for end-2026 ​now stands at 29.75%, compared with 28% in the previous Reuters poll, while some economists declined to make ​predictions for now.

JPMorgan, which, like most analysts, had previously predicted a cut at the March meeting, said on Monday it now expects the bank to hold and also revised its year-end forecast to 31% from 30%.

HSBC also forecast ​a hold, noting the Monetary Policy Meeting (MPC) has repeatedly said the easing cycle will be cautious and data‑dependent.

“We ​think that in the context of significant geopolitical uncertainty and growing energy price risks, an on‑hold decision is the ‌most ⁠likely outcome,” HSBC said in a research note.

Türkiye’s inflation rate rose slightly on an annual basis to 31.5% in February, while the monthly figure cooled to 2.96%, compared to the higher-than-expected 4.84% increase in January, official data revealed earlier this month.

The central bank, at its first quarterly inflation report last month, lifted its year-end inflation forecast to the 15%-21% range, while keeping its interim target at 16%.

CBRT Governor Fatih Karahan, at the time, emphasized progress on disinflation and suggested that policymakers “are decisively maintaining our tight monetary policy stance to ensure the continuation of the disinflation process in line with targets.”

“We stand ready to tighten our monetary policy stance in case of a significant deviation in the inflation outlook from the interim targets,” he also said.

Oil prices

However, since the U.S.-Israel attack on Iran and its retaliatory aerial attacks, exports from major Gulf oil producers have largely halted, causing a sharp rise in energy prices and stoking supply and inflation concerns on a global scale.

Market volatility triggered by the conflict prompted Treasury and Finance Minister Mehmet Şimşek to convene the Financial Stability ​Committee, which said it ​would take all necessary ⁠steps to ensure market functioning and contain the fallout.

Turkish institutions have meanwhile issued temporary proactive measures, including liquidity steps that helped push the overnight rate roughly 300 basis ​points higher to ⁠about 40%.

At the same time, Ankara on Thursday announced that the so-called “sliding scale system” was temporarily activated to mitigate the impact of the perceived temporary increase in oil prices.

Economists said that one key factor limiting upward revisions in ⁠inflation expectations ​was this system, which adjusts the special consumption tax (ÖTV) ​on fuel products and prevents higher oil prices from being fully passed through to consumers.

The central bank will announce its ​next interest rate decision at 11 a.m. GMT (2 p.m. local time) on March 12.

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As missiles and drones limit energy production across the Persian Gulf amid the ongoing U.S.-Israel-Iran war, analysts warn that water, not oil, could be the resource most at risk in the energy-rich but arid region.

Hundreds of desalination plants sit along the Persian Gulf coast, putting individual systems that supply water to millions within range of Iranian missile or drone strikes. Without them, major cities would not be able to sustain their current populations.

In Kuwait, about 90% of drinking water comes from desalination, along with roughly 86% in Oman and about 70% in Saudi Arabia.

The technology removes salt from seawater, most commonly by pushing it through ultra-fine membranes in a process known as reverse osmosis, to produce the freshwater that sustains cities, hotels, industry and some agriculture across one of the world’s driest regions.

For people living outside the Middle East, the main concern of the Iran war has been the impact on energy prices. The Gulf produces about a third of the world’s crude exports and energy revenues underpin national economies.

Fighting has already halted tanker traffic through key shipping routes and disrupted port activity, forcing some producers to curb exports as storage tanks fill.

But the infrastructure that keeps Gulf cities supplied with drinking water may be equally vulnerable.

“Everyone thinks of Saudi Arabia and their neighbors as petrostates. But I call them saltwater kingdoms. They’re manmade fossil-fueled water superpowers,” said Michael Christopher Low, director of the Middle East Center at the University of Utah. “It’s both a monumental achievement of the 20th century and a certain kind of vulnerability.”

The war that began Feb. 28 with U.S. and Israeli attacks on Iran has already brought fighting close to key desalination infrastructure. On March 2, Iranian strikes on Dubai’s Jebel Ali port landed some 12 miles from one of the world’s largest desalination plants, which produces much of the city’s drinking water.

Damage also was reported at the Fujairah F1 power and water complex in the United Arab Emirates (UAE), and at Kuwait’s Doha West desalination plant. The damage at the two facilities appeared to have resulted from nearby port attacks or debris from intercepted drones, and so far there is little evidence of Iran intentionally targeting water treatment sites, experts said.

Many Gulf desalination plants are physically integrated with power stations as co‑generation facilities, meaning attacks on electrical infrastructure could also hinder water production.

Even where plants are connected to national grids with backup supply routes, disruptions can cascade across interconnected systems, said David Michel, senior fellow for water security at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

“It’s an asymmetrical tactic,” he said.

“Iran doesn’t have the same capacity to strike back at the United States and Israel. But it does have this possibility to impose costs on the Gulf countries to push them to intervene or call for a cessation of hostilities.”

Desalination plants’ importance, vulnerability

Desalination plants have multiple stages – intake systems, treatment facilities, energy supplies – and damage to any part of that chain can interrupt production, according to Ed Cullinane, Middle East editor at Global Water Intelligence, a publisher serving the water industry.

“None of these assets are any more protected than any of the municipal areas that are currently being hit by ballistic missiles or drones,” Cullinane said.

Gulf governments and U.S. officials have long recognized the risks these systems pose for regional stability: if major desalination plants were knocked offline, some cities could lose most of their drinking water within days. A 2010 CIA analysis warned attacks on desalination facilities could trigger national crises in several Gulf states, and prolonged outages could last months if critical equipment were destroyed.

More than 90% of the Gulf’s desalinated water comes from just 56 plants, the report stated, and “each of these critical plants is extremely vulnerable to sabotage or military action.”

A leaked 2008 U.S. diplomatic cable warned the Saudi capital of Riyadh “would have to evacuate within a week” if either the Jubail desalination plant on the Gulf coast or its pipelines or associated power infrastructure were seriously damaged.

Saudi Arabia has since invested in pipeline networks, storage reservoirs and other redundancies designed to cushion short-term disruptions, as has the UAE. But smaller states such as Bahrain, Qatar and Kuwait have fewer backup supplies.

As warming oceans increase the likelihood and intensity of cyclones in the Arabian Sea and raise the chances of landfall on the Arabian Peninsula, storm surge and extreme rainfall could overwhelm drainage systems and damage coastal desalination.

The plants themselves contribute to the problem. Desalination is energy-intensive, with plants worldwide producing between 500 and 850 million tons of carbon emissions annually, approaching the roughly 880 million tons emitted by the entire global aviation industry.

The by-product of desalination, highly concentrated brine, is typically discharged back into the ocean, where it can harm seafloor habitats and coral reefs, while intake systems can trap and kill fish larvae, plankton and other organisms at the base of the marine food web.

As climate change intensifies droughts, disrupts rainfall patterns and fuels wildfires, desalination is expected to expand in many parts of the world.

Destruction in past conflicts

During Iraq’s 1990-1991 invasion of Kuwait and the subsequent Gulf War, Iraqi forces sabotaged power stations and desalination facilities as they retreated, said the University of Utah’s Low. At the same time, millions of barrels of crude oil were deliberately released into the Persian Gulf, creating one of the largest oil spills in history.

The massive slick threatened to contaminate seawater intake pipes used by desalination plants across the region. Workers rushed to deploy protective booms around the intake valves of major facilities.

The destruction left Kuwait largely without fresh water and dependent on emergency water imports. Full recovery took years.

More recently, Yemen’s Houthi rebels have targeted Saudi desalination facilities amid regional tensions.

The incidents underscore a broader erosion of long-standing norms against attacking civilian infrastructure, Michel said, noting conflicts in Ukraine, Gaza and Iraq.

International humanitarian law, including provisions of the Geneva Conventions, prohibit targeting civilian infrastructure indispensable to the survival of the population, including drinking water facilities.

The potential for harmful cyberattacks on water infrastructure is a growing concern. In 2023 and 2024, U.S. officials blamed Iran-aligned groups for hacking into several American water utilities.

After a fifth year of extreme drought, water levels in Tehran’s five reservoirs plunged to some 10% of their capacity, prompting President Masoud Pezeshkian to warn the capital may have to be evacuated.

Unlike many Gulf states that rely heavily on desalination, Iran still gets most of its water from rivers, reservoirs and depleted underground aquifers. The country operates a relatively small number of desalination plants, supplying only a fraction of national demand.

Iran is racing to expand desalination along its southern coast and pump some of the water inland, but infrastructure constraints, energy costs and international sanctions have sharply limited scalability.

“They were already thinking of evacuating the capital last summer,” Cullinane of Global Water Intelligence said. “I don’t dare to wonder what it’s going to be like this summer under sustained fire, with an ongoing economic catastrophe and a serious water crisis.”

Strengthening bilateral ties between Türkiye and Spain has brought together record figures in trade and tourism, with 2025 emerging as a milestone year for economic relations between the two countries, according to a recent report.

Shared political, diplomatic and economic objectives between Türkiye and Spain have positively influenced bilateral trade in recent years, according to information compiled by Anadolu Agency (AA) on Saturday.

At the same time, increased interaction between citizens of the two countries has also drawn attention on social media, where messages highlighting “friendship” frequently reference tourism and economic cooperation.

High-level contacts in recent years have contributed to deepening bilateral relations, helping boost trade between the two countries by 29.2% in the 2021-2025 period.

Türkiye’s exports to Spain amounted to $9.6 billion in 2021, while imports from Spain totaled $6.3 billion, bringing the total trade volume to $15.9 billion.

Trade continued to grow in the following years, reaching $16.7 billion in 2022 and $19.3 billion in 2023.

Although trade volume slightly declined in 2024 to $19.1 billion, it reached a record level in 2025.

Record year for bilateral trade

Türkiye’s exports to Spain exceeded $10 billion for the first time in 2025, reaching $10.4 billion.

Imports from Spain also rose to $10.1 billion, bringing total trade volume to $20.6 billion, the highest level recorded since official data began in 2013, according to the Turkish Statistical Institute (TurkStat).

Spain also ranked as Türkiye’s seventh-largest export destination.

Motor vehicles accounted for the largest share of exports to Spain in 2025 at $3.05 billion, followed by knitted apparel and accessories at $1.09 billion and boilers, machinery and mechanical appliances at $927 million.

Rising number of Spanish tourists

The number of Spanish tourists visiting Türkiye has also grown significantly in recent years.

While 321,325 Spanish tourists visited Türkiye in 2010, the number dropped to 54,381 in 2020 during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Visitor numbers recovered in subsequent years, reaching 104,848 in 2021, 298,165 in 2022, 324,690 in 2023 and 382,896 in 2024.

In 2025, the number rose to a record 452,790 Spanish tourists.

In January this year alone, the number of Spanish visitors to Türkiye increased by 24.1% year-over-year to 24,847.

The strong performance in trade and tourism reflects the growing friendship and cooperation between the two countries.

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The chief of the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) said on Thursday that Türkiye must “stay on course” ⁠in its inflation fight, and she applauded measures taken by the central bank this week to tackle market fallout from the war in the Middle East.

Odile Renaud-Basso, the ​EBRD’s president, said the bank’s investment in Türkiye will ​remain “very ⁠high” this year, and that it was looking into potentially funding a big-ticket high-voltage electricity transmission system that Ankara plans over the coming decade.

“The central bank has already taken some measures very quickly,” Renaud-Basso said. “There is still some way to go and what is important is to stay on course and really finish this work,” she told an interview with Reuters at the EBRD’s offices in Istanbul.

Reassuring meetings with officials

Renaud-Basso was speaking at the end of a four-day visit that included meetings with Treasury and Finance Minister Mehmet Şimşek and Vice President Cevdet ⁠Yılmaz.

“Everything ⁠I heard reassured me (that) this progress is steady,” she said of inflation-fighting measures.

The Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye (CBRT) has slashed interest rates by 900 basis points since mid-2025 to 37% as annual inflation slowed from over 40% at the beginning of last year to just over 30% in January.

But a rise to 31.5% last month signaled a slowdown in disinflation, and an escalating U.S.-Israeli war with Iran threatens to drive prices higher.

In response, the central ⁠bank already took a series of steps this week, including some $8 billion in foreign currency sales on Monday, pushing the market overnight rate to about 40%.

Asked about Ankara’s plans to ​invest some $30 billion in a high-voltage electricity transmission system over the next decade, Renaud-Basso ​said the EBRD is “looking into that.”

“It’s part of the discussion we have with the government,” she said.

The EBRD committed last year a ⁠record ‌2.7 billion ‌euros ($3.13 billion) to 54 projects in Türkiye, which is the ⁠number-one recipient of EBRD’s funds. This year’s funding ‌could also include energy and renewables projects.

Türkiye aims to quadruple renewable energy generation capacity by the ​end of 2035 and build ⁠new nuclear power plants. The planned network would transfer ⁠electricity to consumption centers and also send surplus electricity to its European neighbors.

Türkiye has ⁠said it is ​in talks with the World Bank to secure up to $6 billion of funding for upgrading electricity transmission infrastructure.

Iran conflict risk to economic growth

Renaud-Basso said the widening U.S.-Israel war on Iran is a risk to economic growth, but noted that the fallout depends on how long the conflict lasts.

She said the conflict “can ​reduce risk capital” ⁠for the region – but that apart from Lebanon, the fallout thus far was contained.

“For the time being, it’s limited,” she said, adding that “the risk is on the downside.”

Last week, the EBRD pegged growth for the 41 countries it covers at 3.6% for this year and 3.7% in 2027, boosted by spending on big infrastructure projects in Europe, but offset by U.S. tariffs and trade uncertainty.

The war has effectively ⁠closed ⁠the Strait of Hormuz, a key shipping artery, sending crude prices up some 12% – and sounding an alarm for many of the energy-importing countries in which the EBRD works.

Renaud-Basso said that the length of the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and the duration of oil and gas price spikes were key, but that high global gas stocks could ⁠help cushion the blow.

The exception, however, is Lebanon, which she said is “very much at the core” of current turbulence.

“There ​we can expect quite a significant impact on the economic situation and broadly,” she said.

In Ukraine, Renaud-Basso said ⁠international ‌funding ‌for the year is unlikely to change despite ⁠the new conflict.

But more broadly, she ‌said an extended spike in global energy prices could also drive inflation ​higher – making it tricky for ⁠central banks to cut interest rates.

“This is ⁠a new challenge in terms of monetary policy. I think ⁠that we need ​to be careful,” Renaud-Basso said.

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Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha accused Hungarian authorities early on ​Friday of taking seven Ukrainian employees of a state-owned bank hostage and illegally seizing a cash shipment that was traveling in a convoy across Hungary.

Sybiha ​was writing on the social media platform X after Hungarian ​Prime Minister Viktor Orban said Budapest ​would force Ukraine with “political and financial tools” to reopen the Druzhba pipeline carrying ​Russian oil to Hungary and ​Slovakia. They are the only EU countries still importing Russian oil due to EU sanctions.

Whereabouts and the well-being of the seven Ukrainians, employees of the state-owned savings bank Oschadbank traveling in two armored cars between Austria and Ukraine, were unknown, the minister said.

Ukraine demanded the immediate release of ⁠its ⁠citizens, ​with Sybiha adding that Kyiv was preparing more actions, including at ⁠the ⁠European Union’s level.

“Ukrainian consuls have still not been permitted access to seven ⁠Ukrainian citizens taken hostage in ​Budapest. The Hungarian side ​has not ⁠provided ‌any ‌explanation,” he ⁠said.

The armored cars were carrying cash as part of regular services between state banks, according to Ukraine.

In a separate statement, Oschadbank wrote that $40 million in American currency, as well as 35 million euros and 9 kilograms (19.8 pounds) of gold, had been apprehended by Hungary.

GPS data showed the vehicles were in the center of Budapest near one of Hungary’s law enforcement agencies, but the location of the bank employees remained unknown, the bank wrote.

Separately, Hungary’s tax authority on Friday confirmed detentions and said it is pursuing criminal proceedings on suspicion of money laundering. It also said one of the detainees was a ⁠former general of the Ukrainian intelligence ​services.

Tensions further inflamed

The incident further inflamed tensions between Hungary and Ukraine, which are embroiled in a bitter feud over Hungary’s access to Russian oil through a pipeline that crosses Ukrainian territory.

Oil shipments through the Druzhba pipeline have been interrupted since Jan. 27. Ukraine says a Russian drone strike damaged the pipeline’s infrastructure, and that repairing it carries risks to technicians and that even if restored, it would remain vulnerable to further Russian attacks.

Hungary’s government, however, has accused Ukraine of deliberately holding up supplies of Russian crude, and has vowed to take countermeasures against Kyiv until oil flows resume.

Hungary, along with neighboring Slovakia, has defied European Union efforts to wean off Russian fossil fuels and continued to purchase them despite Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine.

Without mentioning them directly, Prime Minister Orban alluded to the detention of the bank vehicles in statements to state radio Friday, saying: “We will stop things that are important to Ukraine passing through Hungary until we get the approval of the Ukrainians for oil shipments.”

Orban, who has maintained close relations with the Kremlin while escalating an aggressive anti-Ukraine campaign ahead of crucial elections next month, previously ceased diesel shipments to Ukraine, vetoed a new round of EU sanctions against Russia and blocked a major, 90-billion-euro ($106-billion) loan for Kyiv in retaliation for the interruption in oil shipments.

He’s also deployed military forces to key energy infrastructure sites across Hungary, accusing Ukraine of plotting disruptions.

On Thursday, Orban told an economic forum that Hungary would use “force,” including “political and financial tools,” to compel Ukraine to resume oil shipments.

On his post on X, the Ukrainian foreign minister took issue with Orban’s comments, writing: “We are talking about Hungary taking hostages and stealing money.”

“If this is the ‘force’ announced earlier today by Mr. Orban, then this is a force of a criminal gang,” Sybiha wrote. “This is state terrorism and racketeering.”

Sybiha added that Ukraine would take the matter up with the EU to clarify Hungary’s actions.

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A surge of cash leaving risk assets has unsettled emerging markets since war engulfed the Middle East, but some investors are wagering that solid fundamentals and geopolitical fragmentation will allow the year-long rally to resume.

The United States and Israel’s bombardment of Iran pressed emerging market currencies and stocks toward their biggest weekly losses in three years, ⁠while bonds also tumbled sharply.

JPMorgan reduced its overweight stance on emerging ⁠market foreign exchange and local currency bonds to marketweight, citing uncertainty. Citi also halved its emerging market foreign exchange exposure.

But veteran investors say emerging economies, barring further big shocks or prolonged high energy prices, can rebound, with green shoots already pushing through.

“I don’t think yet that we’ve seen … let’s ​call it real money, or crossover money, saying ‘I’m out,'” said Cathy Hepworth, head of PGIM fixed income’s emerging market ​debt ⁠team. “There are people on the sidelines who were waiting for a market correction to get in or to increase the degree to which they are involved.”

The end, or a pause?

From stocks to bonds to currencies, emerging markets had outshone all expectations until this week.

Flows into the asset classes had ballooned since U.S. President Donald Trump started his second term in office in January 2025. Emerging nations – led by Saudi Arabia, Mexico, Türkiye and Poland – issued a record amount of debt in January, equities soared and yield-hungry investors ploughed cash into local currency debt across frontier markets.

However, investors had already warned that some of the “hot” money from hedge funds and other non-specialist investors could leave quickly if the market turned. The U.S.-Israeli bombing campaign in Iran caused just this to happen, with investors fleeing to safer assets. The dollar rose, along with gold, and investors piled into cash as they sought a port in the storm.

“We’ve seen a big shock to markets…there is more to go, should oil prices rise further,” said James Lord, global head of FX and EM strategy at Morgan Stanley.

Data showed MSCI’s emerging market equities index lost more ⁠than a ⁠trillion dollars in market capitalisation from its peak last Thursday to Wednesday’s close.

One of the most notable drops was for Korea’s KOSPI equity index, which shed nearly 20% over the course of Tuesday and Wednesday in its biggest-ever crash. The index, heavily influenced by the rush to AI and chips, had been the top performer in emerging equities.

“That’s clearly panic selling in some sense,” said Jonas Goltermann, deputy chief markets economist with Capital Economics, adding that it was a sign of the “market machine” overriding underlying fundamentals. On Thursday, the KOSPI clawed its way back, gaining nearly 10% and it is still up more than 30% this year.

Strong fundamentals – and shield from the turmoil

Investors said that the years spent by many emerging and frontier markets to shore up their finances and bolster confidence in their central banks could also aid their appeal during a prolonged crisis.

Many central banks, Morgan Stanley’s Lord said, had taken “a very cautious and credible ⁠approach to the easing cycles,” getting inflation in check and underpinning currencies against the dollar.

Egypt and Nigeria, countries where it was once difficult to repatriate cash, reformed investor access. The outflows in recent days, some say, prove they are a reliable destination for the money.

“Frontiers that received a large amount of inflows are now demonstrating their ability to absorb the demand for foreign exchange and ​also demonstrating the FX flexibility, which we think is helpful in this context, to manage exogenous shocks of this nature,” said Yvette Babb, portfolio manager with William Blair.

“We ​think the fundamentals within EM are clearly strong to withstand an exogenous shock, as long as the story does not derail the global growth narrative.”

Oil threat

Oil prices are the biggest threat. A prolonged period above $100 per barrel could send global inflation soaring, dent growth and keep some emerging ⁠market central banks from ‌continuing to cut rates.

However, ‌Elias A. Elias, a portfolio manager with Templeton Global Investments, said Latin American commodity exporters could benefit from the ⁠higher prices, while cheaper valuations for emerging market equities more broadly bolstered their appeal despite the current ‌turmoil.

“We’re very constructive on the EM equities as an asset class,” he said, adding emerging stocks remained at a roughly 28% discount to developed markets, with higher earnings growth expectations.

South-South support

The changing nature of risk ​and global money flows could also shield emerging markets ⁠from a broader rush for the exit. Trump’s return to the White House and his shifting tariffs, sanctions and combative ⁠foreign policy has changed how some investors calculate risk.

Additionally, increasing “South-South” investment, where cash flows from pools such as Asia’s growing wealth or deep-pocketed Gulf sovereign wealth funds, has provided ⁠a buffer for some economies, most notably ​the likes of Egypt.

Such investors are less likely to abandon emerging markets.

“Today, funds and excess capital in Asia (are) being produced, and they’re investing in other markets,” said Dhiraj Bajaj, Head of Asia Credit at Lombard Odier. “The dynamic is changing.”

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