Economy
Trade war bigger challenge for EM central banks than COVID-19: IMF
The trade war fed by U.S. President Donald Trump presents an even tougher challenge for emerging market policymakers than the COVID-19 crisis five years ago, a top official at the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has warned.
The shock from the trade war brings “differential effects” for central banks in emerging markets, in contrast with the COVID-19 pandemic, when they could quickly ease monetary policy, the IMF’s Gita Gopinath said, according to an interview published on Thursday.
In an interview with the Financial Times (FT) newspaper, the fund’s first deputy managing director said the unpredictable impact of tariffs on developing economies and global markets would make the task of their central bankers harder.
“This time the challenge is going to be greater for them, compared to the pandemic,” she said.
Federal Reserve (Fed) policymakers have been signalling they are not ready to lower interest rates until they are sure tariffs will not further stoke inflation. Some estimates predict the inflation in the U.S. could go up in the short term due to the impact of Trump’s tariffs, which are expected to make goods, from shoes to phones, more expensive for ordinary Americans.
Elsewhere, the Bank of England (BoE) and the European Central Bank (ECB) have pivoted to easing monetary policy as inflation slowed down from the peaks observed in 2022 and due to widely stagnating or low growth.
However, in emerging markets, which are also facing higher U.S. trade barriers, the situation looks “more like a demand shock,” said Gopinath, which means slower inflation and growth.
The situation contrasts with the onset of the pandemic, when most central banks around the world slashed interest rates.
“When we have this kind of a divergence, you could end up with tightening global financial conditions, and emerging markets are particularly sensitive to such changes in global markets,” Gopinath told the FT.
Emerging market currencies and stocks have largely rebounded in the two months since Trump announced his sweeping “reciprocal” tariffs, as investors bet that central banks will be largely free to stimulate their economies despite the risk that higher rates in developed countries will draw capital away.
However, a report from the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) warned that “the risk of disruptive capital flows has risen in emerging market economies.”
Still, Gopinath noted that “emerging market central banks have built up credibility over time, and several have moved to inflation-targeting frameworks,” which she said was very positive.
She added: “Global factors are still bigger drivers for them compared to advanced economies, and so when we’re entering this environment where we are seeing major shifts in global economic policy, along with the uncertainty, this will present a challenge to them.”
China’s exports slowed down sharply in March as the war in the Middle East led to a rise in energy and transportation costs, hurting global demand and exposing the risks in Beijing’s strategy of leaning on manufacturing to sustain growth.
The world’s second-largest economy surged into 2026 on red-hot AI-fuelled electronics demand, raising expectations it could eclipse last year’s $1.2 trillion record trade surplus.
But the conflict has disrupted global growth, leaving China especially vulnerable as it has relied on foreign demand to offset a prolonged inability to revive consumption at home.
Outbound shipments grew by just 2.5% in March, customs data showed on Tuesday, a five-month low, and far below the 21.8% surge seen over the January-February period. Economists had forecast growth of 8.3% in a Reuters poll.
“Export growth to major destinations slowed across the board,” said Zhiwei Zhang, chief economist at Pinpoint Asset Management, attributing the drop to global uncertainty over the Iran war.
“I think China’s trade surplus will shrink this year, as China cannot pass through the higher energy prices completely to foreign consumers,” he added.
The signs are already evident: China’s March trade surplus came in at just $51.13 billion, far below expectations of $108 billion.
Surge in imports
A sharp 27.8% surge in imports – the strongest since November 2021 – weighed on the balance. That compared with a 19.8% increase in January-February and forecasts for 11.2% growth.
China’s status as the world’s largest manufacturer and energy importer leaves it acutely exposed to a global energy shock. Diversified supplies and large oil reserves offer some protection, but uncertainty over the conflict’s duration risks undermining artificial intelligence-fuelled demand for chips and servers, blurring the growth picture.
Even China, long criticized by trading partners for subsidy-backed, cut-price manufacturing, is not insulated from the hit to buyers’ purchasing power as fuel and transport costs rise.
Separate gross domestic product (GDP) data due on Thursday is expected to show the $19 trillion economy regaining some momentum in the first quarter, but full-year growth is set to slow to 4.6% from last year’s 5.0%, broadly in line with the official target of 4.5%-5.0%.
Chinese goods more competitive?
Chinese goods will be “even more competitive” as the energy shock “pushes up the price in most of the countries” more than in China, said Chen Bo, senior research fellow at the National University of Singapore’s East Asian Institute.
Chen expects global demand for Chinese-made electric vehicles to increase.
Fred Neumann, HSBC’s chief Asia economist, said China could stand to benefit from taking the decision in the early 2000s to stockpile commodities, as it could help blunt the impact of raw-material shocks on factory gate prices.
China’s exports of refined oil products rose 20.5% month-on-month, totalling 4.6 million metric tons.
Disruptions to global energy supply lines will be felt in China, even if it’s not yet showing up in the data.
Natural gas imports for March dropped by an annual 10.7%, the lowest level since October 2022, with Chinese ships diverting between eight and 10 cargoes over the course of the month to sell where prices are higher, according to ICIS, Kpler and Vortexa data.
Crude oil imports also fell 2.8% year-on-year, but this was predominantly due to a high base effect, with March arrivals having been loaded onto ships before the war began.
The figures were further muddied by the seasonal effects of a late Lunar New Year national holiday, said Xu Tianchen, senior economist at the Economist Intelligence Unit, during which factories shut as workers down tools to celebrate.
“This explains the decline across the low-value-added sectors, textiles, garments, bags, toys, furniture, as they are reliant on migrant workers,” Xu said.
A high base is also a drag, after Chinese factories rushed shipments a year earlier to beat U.S. President Donald Trump’s April 2 “Liberation Day” tariff deadline.
March factory activity data out of China showed goods exports continued to support growth, but the war in Iran weighed on sentiment as commodity prices rose sharply, lifting input costs.
Some analysts expect sustained tech demand to underpin Chinese exports.
“For Q1 as a whole, export growth rose to its highest level in four years,” said Zichun Huang, China economist at Capital Economics.
“Despite the energy price shock, exports should stay solid in the coming quarters, thanks to strong demand for semiconductors and green technologies.”
Danish pharmaceuticals giant Novo Nordisk, maker of the Ozempic and Wegovy anti-obesity drugs, announced Tuesday a “strategic partnership” with ChatGPT developer OpenAI to accelerate the development of new medications and bring them to patients faster.
Like other drugmakers, Novo Nordisk is banking heavily on artificial intelligence to test new treatments and vaccines and bring them to market faster for less money.
Novo Nordisk said the partnership would place it “at the forefront of AI transformation in health care and help the company bring new and better treatment options to patients faster.”
No financial details of the partnership were disclosed.
“This collaboration with Novo Nordisk will help them accelerate scientific discovery, run smarter global operations, and redefine the future of patient care,” OpenAI CEO Sam Altman said.
Pilot programs will be launched across several business areas “with full integration by the end of 2026,” the statement added.
Novo Nordisk has seen its share price slide as it has slashed prices to meet rising competition, particularly from its U.S. rival Eli Lilly.
It has also faced competition from copycat versions of Ozempic and Wegovy, and last month it took legal action against the U.S. telehealth chain Hims & Hers after it began selling so-called compounded versions of the injectable.
Currently, it can take more than a decade to develop a drug, and out of ten candidates, only one manages to reach the market.
According to industry analysts, the average research and development cost to bring a new drug to market is around $2 billion.
A U.S.-sanctioned tanker passed through the Strait of Hormuz on Tuesday despite a maritime blockade launched by the United States a day earlier in response to Iran’s refusal to reopen the narrow waterway that is vital for global oil trade.
U.S. President Donald Trump announced the blockade on Sunday after weekend peace talks in Islamabad between the U.S. and Iran failed to reach a deal.
The Rich Starry, an oil and chemicals tanker, left the Gulf via the Strait of Hormuz on Tuesday morning and is traveling in the Gulf of Oman, according to shipping traffic trackers Lloyd’s List and Marine Traffic.
The tanker and its owner Shanghai Xuanrun Shipping Co Ltd were sanctioned by the United States for dealing with Iran.
Rich Starry is a medium-range tanker that is carrying about 250,000 barrels of methanol, according to the data. It loaded the cargo at its last port of call, the UAE’s Hamriyah, the data showed.
The Chinese-owned tanker has Chinese crew on board, the data showed.
China’s Foreign Ministry said on Tuesday that a U.S. blockade of Iranian ports is “dangerous and irresponsible,” warning it would only aggravate tensions. It did not mention whether Chinese ships were passing the strait.
Since the United States and Israel began the war on Feb. 28, Iran effectively shut the Strait of Hormuz to all vessels except its own, saying passage would be permitted only under Iranian control and subject to a fee.
The fallout has been widespread, as nearly a fifth of the world’s oil and gas previously flowed through the narrow waterway.
In a countermeasure, the U.S. military began blocking shipping traffic in and out of Iran’s ports on Monday. Tehran has threatened to hit naval ships going through the strait and to retaliate against its Gulf neighbors’ ports.
Meanwhile, another two Iran-linked vessels were seen transiting the strait on Tuesday. Since they were not heading to Iranian ports, they are not covered by the blockade.
Panama-flagged Peace Gulf, a medium-range tanker, is heading to Hamriyah port in the United Arab Emirates, LSEG data showed.
The vessel typically moves Iranian naphtha, a petrochemical feedstock, to other non-Iranian Middle Eastern ports for export to Asia, Kpler data showed.
Prior to this, two U.S.-sanctioned tankers passed through the narrow waterway.
Handy tanker Murlikishan is heading to Iraq to load fuel oil on April 16, Kpler data showed. The vessel, formerly known as MKA, has transported Russian and Iranian oil.
The founder of China’s troubled Evergrande Group, the world’s most indebted property developer, pleaded guilty to several charges, including misuse of funds, fundraising fraud and illegally taking public deposits, a court in China’s southern city of Shenzhen said.
The company has defaulted since 2021 on most of its $300 billion in liabilities – a sign of troubles emblematic of China’s property sector woes that have long dragged on economic growth.
Founder Hui Ka Yan “pleaded guilty and expressed remorse” in trial proceedings on Monday and Tuesday against him and Evergrande, the court said in a posting on its official WeChat account.
The liquidators of Evergrande declined to comment on the case.
Reuters was unable to seek comment from Hui, 67, who has not been seen in public since Chinese authorities detained him in 2023, following the default of Evergrande.
Verdicts to be issued later
Hui and the company also face charges of illegally extending loans, fraudulently issuing securities and bribery by units, the Shenzhen Municipal Intermediate People’s Court added, with verdicts to be handed down later, though it did not set a date.
The company’s failure to repay billions of dollars of wealth management products unleashed frustration among the lower and middle classes, many of whom had investments wiped out, provoking protests and threatening social stability.
Jail for life and confiscation of property are the maximum penalties for illegal fundraising, while bribery can also bring life terms.
In 2024, China’s securities regulator fined Hui, formerly one of China’s richest men, $6.6 million and barred him from the securities market for life, after finding Evergrande’s flagship unit had inflated earnings and committed securities fraud.
A former steel technician, Hui, raised by his grandmother in a rural village in central Henan province, built his fortune on the back of low-priced homes.
After founding Evergrande in 1996, he turned it into China’s biggest property developer by contracted sales, aggressively taking on debt.
New ventures
He also did not shy away from new ventures, dabbling in electric cars and soccer, both a passion of Chinese President Xi Jinping.
In 2017, Hui was Asia’s richest man with a net worth of $45.3 billion, according to Forbes. By 2023, his net worth was estimated at $3 billion.
In 2024, Evergrande received a liquidation order from a Hong Kong court and was kicked off the Hong Kong stock exchange last year, bringing an end to a tumultuous boom-and-bust saga.
Outside mainland China, Evergrande’s liquidators have battled in court to freeze offshore assets of the founder and his ex-spouse in a struggle to claw back $6 billion in dividends and remuneration paid to Hui and other former executives.
Bank of Japan Governor (BOJ) Kazuo Ueda said on Monday that uncertainty over the conflict in the Middle East was leaving markets unstable, warning that it could also hurt factory output, thus signalling the bank’s escalating alarm over the economic hit from the protracted war.
Ueda also stressed the need for vigilance against fallout from the Iran war in explaining the outlook for monetary policy, rather than sticking to the BOJ’s script pledging to keep raising interest rates.
“Global financial markets are unstable, and crude oil prices are rising sharply due to Middle East tensions. We must be vigilant to future developments,” Ueda was quoted as saying in a speech read by his deputy, Ryozo Himino.
“Given lingering uncertainty over the Middle East situation, we will scrutinize how future developments affect the economy, prices and financial conditions, as well as risks and likelihood of our baseline projections materializing.”
Markets watched his speech closely for hints on whether the BOJ would raise interest rates this month, chances of which have receded as fading hopes for an end to the Iran war keep markets volatile and muddy the economic outlook, sources told Reuters.
Shift from March guidance
The reference to the uncertainty is a shift from March’s guidance, when the BOJ said only that it would keep raising rates in line with improvements in the economy and prices.
In his speech, Ueda said a gradual economic recovery was keeping underlying inflation on track to hit the BOJ’s target of 2%, with companies offering solid pay increases in this year’s wage talks.
But he warned that rising crude oil prices would hurt Japan’s economy, as a protracted Middle East war could weigh on factory output amid supply chain disruptions.
Ueda’s focus on downside economic risks suggests the BOJ is becoming less convinced that its growth and price projections will materialize, said Mari Iwashita, executive rates strategist at Nomura Securities.
Delaying rate hikes
Delaying rate hikes is not without cost, as that could cause unwelcome yen falls, push up import costs and broader inflation, analysts say.
Japan’s benchmark bond yield jumped to a 29-year high on Monday, fuelled partly by investors’ concern that surging oil costs would add to mounting inflationary pressures.
While higher oil costs would push up energy prices in the short-term, they could exert both upward and downward pressures on underlying inflation, Ueda said.
“If the output gap worsens, that could weigh on underlying inflation,” he added.
“On the other hand, if rising crude oil prices heighten the public’s medium- and long-term inflation expectations, that could push up underlying inflation.”
The Middle East war will dominate global finance officials’ talks this week in Washington, but World Bank President Ajay Banga is sounding the alarm about a bigger, looming crisis: a huge gap in jobs for the 1.2 billion people who will reach working age in developing countries in the next 10 to 15 years.
At current trajectories, those economies will generate only about 400 million jobs, leaving a deficit of 800 million jobs, Banga told Reuters.
The former Mastercard CEO admits that focusing people on the long-term is daunting, given a series of short-term shocks that have buffeted the global economy since the COVID-19 pandemic, the most recent being the war in the Middle East.
He says he’s determined to ensure that finance officials stay focused on those longer-term challenges like creating jobs, connecting people to the electricity grid and ensuring access to clean water.
“We have to walk and chew gum at the same time. Short-velocity cycle is what we’re going through. Longer velocity is this jobs circumstance or water,” Banga said in an interview taped on Friday.
War overshadows other concerns
Thousands of finance officials from around the globe will gather in Washington this week for the spring meetings of the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund under the shadow of the U.S.-Israel war with Iran that threatens to slow global growth and jack up inflation.
The extent of the hit to the economy will depend on the durability of a two-week cease-fire announced by President Donald Trump last week, just hours before promised strikes that Trump said would destroy Iran’s civilization.
The cease-fire has halted most attacks. But it has not ended Iran’s effective blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, which has caused the biggest-ever disruption to global energy supplies.
Weekend talks between the U.S. and Iran brokered by Pakistan failed to reach a deal to end the war. Starting on Monday, the U.S. military said it would begin a blockade of ships leaving Iran’s ports, and Tehran threatened to retaliate against ports of its Gulf neighbors.
Improving job creation
The World Bank’s governing body, the Development Committee, outlined plans to work with developing countries to streamline policy and regulatory conditions that have hampered investment and job creation for years.
Discussions will touch on transparency around permits, anti-corruption, labor law, land law, impediments to opening a business, logistics, better trade systems, and non-price barriers in trade, Banga said.
He is upbeat that solutions can be found to help find employment – and dignity – for young people and create opportunities for private companies catering to their needs. “I don’t know that you can ever get to a situation of utopia and everybody is taken care of in the coming 15 years. I would doubt that’s going to happen, but if you don’t do it, the implications are quite severe in terms of illegal migration and instability,” Banga said. United Nations data showed more than 117 million people were displaced worldwide as of 2025.
Banga said companies in developing countries themselves were starting to expand globally, including India’s Reliance Industries and the Mahindra Group, and Dangote in Nigeria.
Banga said his discussions with officials in developing countries showed their interest in creating more – and better jobs – for the next generation.
In addition to jobs, water will be a big focus. The World Bank, in conjunction with other development banks, is set to announce a push to ensure that one billion more people have secure access to clean water, adding to existing initiatives to connect 300 million households in Africa with electricity, and to improve health care.
Pulling in private sector
The World Bank focused on human and physical infrastructure required for the jobs creation push during last fall’s meetings of the IMF and World Bank, and will continue the cycle with an emphasis on attracting private sector investment during this fall’s meetings in Bangkok, Banga said.
The bank identified five sectors that would benefit from investment and are not reliant on global trade or outsourcing from developed countries: infrastructure, agriculture for small farmers, primary health care, tourism and value-added manufacturing. Those sectors are less likely to be immediately affected by advancements in artificial intelligence, he said.
“The problem is, we can’t do this alone. We’ve got to get this snowball to roll downhill, gathering a lot of snow as it goes along, to reach that amazing number of 800 million,” he said.
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