Economy
Stocks sink, oil at multi-month highs after Israel’s strikes on Iran
Global stock markets plunged on Friday while oil prices soared to near multi-month highs after Israel launched a military strike on Iran, triggering Iranian retaliation and fueling a flight to safe-haven assets like gold, the U.S. dollar and the Swiss franc.
The escalation in the Middle East – a major oil-producing region – adds uncertainty to financial markets at a time of heightened pressure on the global economy from U.S. President Donald Trump’s aggressive and erratic trade policies.
Market reaction, which had abated in early European trade, gathered a renewed momentum as the session wore on.
Brent crude oil prices were last up almost 9% at $75.54 per barrel, having jumped as much as 14% during Asian hours. They were set for their biggest one-day jump since 2022, when energy costs spiked after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
U.S. oil futures rose almost $6 to $73.91.
Israel claimed it had targeted Iran’s nuclear facilities, ballistic missile factories and military commanders on Friday at the start of what it warned would be a prolonged operation to prevent Tehran from building an atomic weapon, while Iran has promised a harsh response.
Iran had launched about 100 drones toward Israeli territory in retaliation. Washington said it was not involved in the Israeli offensive.
World leaders urged restraint, while Trump urged Iran to make a deal over its nuclear program, saying that there was still time for the country to prevent further conflict with Israel.
Eyes on oil flow
The National Iranian Oil Refining and Distribution Company said oil refining and storage facilities had not been damaged and continued to operate.
The primary concern was whether the latest developments would affect the Strait of Hormuz, said SEB analyst Ole Hvalbye. The key waterway had been at risk of impact from increased regional volatility previously but had not been affected so far, Hvalbye said.
There also was no impact on oil flow in the region so far, he added.
About a fifth of the world’s total oil consumption passes through the strait, or some 18 million to 19 million barrels per day (bpd) of oil, condensate and fuel.
Analysts at consultancy Sparta Commodities said that any significant crude supply disruptions would lead to sour crude grades being marginally priced out of refineries in favor of light sweets.
Under a worst-case scenario, JPMorgan analysts said on Thursday that closing the strait or a retaliatory response from major oil-producing countries in the region could lead to oil prices surging to $120-$130 a barrel, nearly double their current base case forecast.
“The key question now is whether this oil rally will last longer than the weekend or a week – our signal is that there is a lower probability of a full-blown war, and the oil price rally will likely encounter resistance,” said Janiv Shah, analyst at Rystad.
“Fundamentals show nearly all Iranian exports going to China, so Chinese discounted purchases would be most at risk here. OPEC spare capacity can provide the stabilizing force,” he added.
An increase in oil prices would also dampen the outlook for the German economy, the economic institute DIW Berlin said on Friday. It is the only G-7 nation that has recorded no economic growth for two consecutive years.
“The increased uncertainty speaks in favour of a higher risk premium on the oil price, which is why it is unlikely to fall below $70 on a sustained basis for the time being … Fundamental data is taking a back seat in the current situation,” analysts at Commerzbank said in a note.
Safe-haven rush
In other markets, stocks dived and there was a rush to safe havens such as gold and the Swiss franc.
Gold, a classic safe haven at times of global uncertainty, rose 1% to $3,416 per ounce, bringing it close to the record high of $3,500.05 from April.
The rush to safety was matched by a dash out of risk assets. U.S. stock futures fell over 1%, European shares dropped almost 1% and in Asia, major bourses in Japan, South Korea and Hong Kong fell over 1% each.
“Clearly the big question is how far does this go?,” said Chris Scicluna, head of economic research at Daiwa Capital Markets in London, referring to the Middle East tension.
“The market has got it right in terms of stocks down, oil and gold up.”
The developments mean another major geopolitical tail risk has now become a reality at a time when investors are wrestling with major shifts in U.S. economic and trade policies.
“The geopolitical escalation adds another layer of uncertainty to already fragile sentiment,” said Charu Chanana, chief investment strategist at Saxo, adding that crude oil and safe-haven assets will remain on an upward trajectory if tensions continue to intensify.
The Israeli shekel fell almost 1.7% and long-dated dollar bonds for Israel, Egypt and Pakistan slipped.
Two-way pull for bonds
U.S. Treasuries initially benefited from the rush for safer assets, but as the day wore on focus turn to the inflationary impact of oil.
U.S. 10-year Treasury yields were last up 2.6 basis points (bps) at 4.38%, having touched a one-month low of 4.31%. Bond yields move inversely to prices.
“This is a flight-to-safety event. But markets are struggling a bit and in the fixed income space you have an oil-price shock that is inflationary and so you should see markets expecting an even more hawkish Fed,” said James Rossiter, head of global macro strategy at TD Securities.
“On the other hand, you have the flight-to-safety, which should push bond yields lower.”
Germany’s 10-year bond yield touched its lowest level since early March at around 2.42%, before also moving higher.
Daiwa’s Scicluna said a further push higher in oil prices could dampen expectations for central bank rate cuts.
“The ultimate response in bond markets to geopolitics is going to depend on how sharp the rise in energy prices is going to be,” he said.
Some traders were attracted to the dollar as a haven, with the dollar index up 0.8% to 98.50, retracing most of Thursday’s sizable decline.
The Swiss franc briefly touched its strongest level against the dollar since April 21, before trading 0.5% lower at around 0.8144 per dollar.
Fellow safe haven the Japanese yen fell 0.6% to 144.33 per dollar, giving up earlier gains of 0.3%.
The euro was down 0.8% at $1.15, after rising on Thursday to the highest since October 2021.
“Traders are now on edge over the prospects of a full-blown Middle East conflict,” said Matt Simpson, a senior market analyst at City Index.
“That will keep uncertainty high and volatility elevated.”
Türkiye’s economy remains strong and resilient despite difficult global conditions and regional conflict, Treasury and Finance Minister Mehmet Şimşek told U.S. investors Monday, highlighting low debt, rising reserves and reduced external vulnerabilities.
Şimşek and Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye (CBRT) Governor Fatih Karahan attended a meeting on Türkiye’s economic outlook and investment opportunities during the Türkiye Investment Conference, organized by the Foreign Economic Relations Board (DEIK) Türkiye-U.S. Business Council in New York.
Şimşek said Türkiye’s low overall debt burden, fiscal policy space, declining external vulnerabilities, rising international reserves and the exit from the foreign exchange-protected Turkish lira deposit scheme, known as KKM, had strengthened the economy’s ability to withstand shocks.
“Our economy is resilient to shocks. Our low overall debt-to-GDP ratio, our fiscal flexibility, declining external vulnerabilities, rising international reserves, and the phase-out of the KKM have all contributed to our economy’s resilience,” the minister was cited as saying by Anadolu Agency (AA).
The meeting focused on the road map outlined in the government’s recently announced Medium-Term Program (MTP), Türkiye’s investment environment and opportunities across key sectors. Karahan also discussed monetary policy and the macroeconomic outlook.
Investment opportunities
Şimşek highlighted Türkiye’s manufacturing and services base, strategic location, infrastructure and skilled workforce as factors supporting its position as a reliable supplier.
“Türkiye is a large economy that is growing strongly compared with its peers,” he said.
He noted the government was accelerating green and digital transformation, industrial transformation and investments in productive infrastructure, while recently announced tax incentives were intended to strengthen the investment and export environment.
He identified defense, tourism, health tourism and digital services exports, including television series and mobile games, as areas offering significant opportunities.
The defense industry is also an important driver of the transformation of Türkiye’s manufacturing sector, Şimşek said.
The meeting also highlighted opportunities in advanced manufacturing, defense and aerospace, health care, logistics and transportation, digital technologies, green and digital transformation and access to regional markets.
Türkiye seeks high-tech investment
A separate industry and high-technology roundtable attended by Industry and Technology Minister Mehmet Fatih Kacır focused on Türkiye’s potential to become a global hub for high-technology production and innovation.
The discussions covered Türkiye’s advantages in strategic areas including semiconductors, mobility, green energy, advanced manufacturing, healthy living, digital technologies, communications and space, as well as opportunities to establish complementary investments across different stages of global value chains.
Investors were also briefed on the government’s investment incentive programs.
DEIK President Nail Olpak said cooperation between Türkiye and the United States in industry and high technology was important. He highlighted what he said were opportunities arising from the combination of Türkiye’s industrial and technology strategy with U.S. strengths in artificial intelligence, semiconductors and software.
He said predictability was among the business community’s main expectations as global uncertainty increases. “We attach importance to having a clear road map for the future,” Olpak said.
Türkiye-U.S. Business Council Chair Murat Özyeğin said Türkiye was maintaining its commitment to disinflation and its policy direction despite increasingly challenging geopolitical and economic conditions.
He said the Medium-Term Program and investment framework demonstrated continuity in the government’s economic program and its intention to improve productivity and competitiveness.
Attracting long-term foreign direct investment that brings technology transfers and skilled employment to Türkiye is among the business community’s priorities, Özyeğin said.
Turkish military pension fund Oyak is in talks with one of the world’s largest energy companies over a strategic partnership in fuel distributor Güzel Enerji, with the outcome expected to become clear by early next year, its top executive said Tuesday.
Oyak General Manager Murat Yalçıntaş did not name the potential partner, but the fund has previously said it was holding talks with Saudi Arabia’s state oil company Saudi Aramco over a possible stake in Türkiye’s fourth-largest fuel retailer Güzel Enerji.
Oyak’s head of energy business Uğur Doğan said in May that talks were under way for Aramco to become a shareholder in Güzel Enerji.
Yalçıntaş said Oyak wants to expand its energy activities beyond fuel distribution into production and refining as part of its 2030 strategy to become an international player in core sectors.
He said the partnership under discussion would be an important step in Oyak’s push to build a more multinational structure.
“We have strategic partnership talks with one of the world’s largest energy giants. We think the picture will become clear by the end of this year or early next year,” Yalçıntaş told reporters in Istanbul.
The 2030 strategy was announced in late February when Yalçıntaş said the company had identified infrastructure, energy, logistics, high technology and mining as priority sectors.
Under the strategy, Oyak aims to strengthen its balance sheet and enhance cash generation and capital efficiency while nearly doubling its asset value to $60 billion by the end of the decade.
On a planned refinery investment, Yalçıntaş said Oyak was considering both greenfield projects and opportunities involving existing refineries, either in Türkiye or abroad.
Oyak operates more than 189 companies across 30 countries in sectors including mining and metallurgy, cement, automotive, energy, chemicals, food, finance and construction.
The group’s consolidated revenue reached TL 418 billion ($8.56 billion) in the first half of 2026, while consolidated net profit rose 66% year-over-year to TL 83 billion, Yalçıntaş said.
Consolidated assets increased 31% from the same period of 2025 to TL 1.85 trillion.
In the mining and metals sector, liquid steel production reached nearly 4.67 million tons in the first half, up 19% year-over-year, while finished product output rose 19% and sales volumes increased 15%.
Oyak’s automotive operations also maintained a strong position, with Renault’s Turkish joint venture Mais selling 100,256 vehicles in the first eight months of the year for a 13.9% market share, Yalçıntaş said.
Tekfen investment to support portfolio expansion
Yalçıntaş said Oyak’s acquisition of a 42.8% stake in Tekfen Holding was one of its most important strategic moves in 2026.
He said Tekfen’s international experience in engineering, procurement and construction would complement Oyak’s existing industrial ecosystem and support its 2030 strategy.
The investment would also strengthen Oyak’s agricultural industrial operations through Tekfen’s fertilizer, crop protection, seeds and agricultural production businesses, he said.
Energy and agriculture remain strategic priorities
In energy, Oyak has completed the acquisition of the remaining shares in ISKEN and Arkas Deniz Taşımacılığı, giving it full ownership of both companies, Yalçıntaş said.
ISKEN accounted for about 1.7% of Türkiye’s total electricity generation between January and August, while Güzel Enerji’s consolidated revenue reached TL 112.3 billion in the first half.
Yalçıntaş said Oyak was also continuing investments in steel, including planned investments at its electrical steel facility in Romania.
He described agriculture and food as strategic sectors for Türkiye, citing Oyak’s Hektaş and Toros businesses as key components of its strategy to strengthen agricultural production and input supply.
More Oyak companies could go public
Yalçıntaş said more Oyak companies could be listed on the Borsa Istanbul Stock Exchange in the coming years.
He said the group had previously indicated that investors would see more publicly traded Oyak companies and had followed through on that commitment within six months, adding that preparations for further listings were continuing.
Oyak also plans to expand its infrastructure investments in Türkiye and abroad, including ports and logistics projects. Yalçıntaş said the group was assessing opportunities in Africa, particularly infrastructure projects linked to the production and transportation of the continent’s natural resources.
The group is also continuing to evaluate strategic partnerships in areas where it can create synergies, while considering exits from businesses that do not fit its portfolio strategy.
Integrating AI agents into online shopping could increase the threats of scams, fraud, and breaches of data privacy, banks including NatWest and Bank of America warned Tuesday, as they put forward a set of principles for how the technology should be developed.
Technology companies including OpenAI, Anthropic, Google and Meta are increasingly promoting AI chatbots as shopping tools, envisioning a future in which shoppers use AI agents to select products and make purchases on their behalf. Retailers, meanwhile, are racing to influence chatbots’ recommendations.
British retailer John Lewis said in September that searches originating from AI agents had risen to 2.5% from 0.3% a year earlier, with the trend accelerating.
The group of banks, which also includes ING, New Zealand’s ASB Bank, U.S. lender Capital One and Commonwealth Bank of Australia, said in a report that customers were enthusiastic about the potential of agentic commerce and keen to enable it.
However, they warned that the technology was advancing faster than industry standards and consumer protections.
“Consumers are unclear if AI will act in their interests,” the report said.
“They are concerned that AI agents may buy the wrong thing or spend too much – or even worse, lose their money to scams and fraud. They are not sure whether they will be protected or who they will need to go to if things go wrong.”
The report highlighted risks including AI agents requesting customers’ card details and entering them directly into websites, or steering users toward payment methods that offer weaker protections.
The banks plan to discuss a series of proposals with policymakers, including requiring disclosure when an AI agent is involved in a transaction, greater transparency over how AI agents make decisions, and safeguards to protect customer data.
Consumers and merchants should also be free to choose which AI-powered e-commerce services they use, while different systems should be interoperable, the report said.
Consumer confidence in Türkiye reached its highest level in more than eight years in September, official data showed Tuesday.
The consumer confidence index rose by 1.3% to 91.9 in September from 90.8 in August, according to the Turkish Statistical Institute (TurkStat)
That was the highest reading since July 2018, when the index stood at 92.9.
The index is calculated from the results of the consumer tendency survey carried out jointly by TurkStat and the Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye (CBRT).
It indicates an optimistic outlook when above 100, while levels below 100 signal pessimism.
Households’ expectations for their financial situation over the next 12 months improved, with the corresponding index rising to 93.7 from 93.1.
The index measuring expectations for the general economic situation over the next 12 months edged up to 89.8 from 89.4.
By contrast, the index measuring households’ current financial situation slipped to 75.3 from 75.4.
Consumers were also more willing to spend on durable goods over the coming year, with the corresponding sub-index rising to 108.8 from 105.1 in August.
Authorities in Türkiye detained 14 more people Tuesday in connection with an investigation into suspicious share dealings at Katılımevim, a listed Turkish savings financing company, Justice Minister Akın Gürlek said.
Türkiye’s Capital Markets Board (SPK) last week filed criminal complaints against 38 people over alleged manipulation of shares in Katılımevim and two other listed companies, and imposed two-year trading bans on them.
The detentions are part of a widening crackdown on suspected share price manipulation at the center of a liquidity crunch that prompted regulators to freeze scores of funds and order their liquidation.
“With the operation carried out today, legal proceedings have been launched against 60 suspects until now; 4 suspects have been arrested; legal processes for 44 detained suspects are continuing; efforts continue to capture 12 suspects,” Gürlek said on the social media platform X.
He said all legal and financial measures were being taken to “uncover proceeds from crime, prevent the concealment of assets, and protect the rights of our victimized citizens.”
On Monday, authorities detained 15 people as part of the Katılımevim investigation, while freezing assets linked to executives at several other investment firms.
The liquidity crunch has led to the detention of top executives of several portfolio management firms and drawn scrutiny of concentrated bets in thinly traded stocks.
Treasury and Finance Minister Mehmet Şimşek said Friday the liquidation of funds would not put pressure on Borsa Istanbul Stock Exchange because regulatory changes should prevent any contagion risk.
He said authorities would continue to monitor the market closely.
Paramount inched closer to a blockbuster purchase of Warner Bros., months after the deal was initially floated, in what could be a game-changing moment in the entertainment industry.
California Attorney General Rob Bonta announced a settlement with Paramount in a lawsuit his state led challenging the company’s acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery on Monday, effectively paving the way for the mega merger to move forward, with some new commitments.
The $81 billion blockbuster deal will bring together two of Hollywood’s oldest studios, key TV networks like CBS and CNN, and streaming platforms HBO Max and Paramount, as well as decades of libraries with titles ranging from “Harry Potter” to “Top Gun.”
But terms of Monday’s agreement include what Bonta called “court-enforceable” requirements for Skydance-owned Paramount to increase domestic production and establish monitoring of editorial independence of the company’s news operations.
The settlement still needs final court approval. Bonta maintained that Monday’s agreement “is not a vote of support for this merger” – but that he was always willing to come to the table and “find a strong solution that protects competition and consumers.”
The coalition of states – including entertainment heavyweights like California and New York – sued to block the $81 billion merger back in July, alleging a Paramount-Warner combo would “extinguish competition” and lead to fewer choices for consumers, particularly movie theatergoers and cable customers across the U.S.
Accompanied by a complaint also filed by the Writers Guild of America, the challenge was headed toward a full antitrust trial set to kick off in March.
Paramount said the allegations were meritless, but previously agreed to delay its transaction well into next year so the case could make its way through court. It then quickly called for a settlement – arguing that it had satisfied all regulatory clearances worldwide, including from the Trump administration’s Justice Department and the states’ challenge was its “final obstacle.”
As reports of the states reaching a settlement with Paramount emerged Monday, critics decried the deal – while warning of what further consolidation could mean in an industry already controlled by just a few major players.
“Today, billionaires have yet again bribed, censored, and bullied their way to the top,” Alvaro Bedoya, senior adviser at the American Economic Liberties Project and former FTC commissioner, said in a statement earlier Monday.
“Layoffs will follow. People from L.A. to Atlanta will lose their jobs, small businesses will lose their contracts, your cable bill and movie ticket will be even more expensive.”
Paramount, which is run by David Ellison, whose ultra-wealthy family has ties to U.S. President Donald Trump, won a bidding war against Netflix in February for control of a stable of assets that includes Warner Bros. Pictures, CNN and the HBO Max streaming service.
The Trump administration approved the deal, one of the largest media mergers in years, in June without demanding a change to its business, before 12 U.S. states sued to block the transaction.
Financing for the deal reportedly includes about $24 billion in equity from the sovereign wealth funds of Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Abu Dhabi. David Ellison’s father, billionaire Oracle founder Larry Ellison, also provided funding and a guarantee.
In their complaint, the 12 states argued the combined company would control roughly 27 percent of wide-release theatrical film distribution and a similar percentage of the basic cable channel industry.
California led the suit, joined by Arizona, Colorado, Connecticut, Massachusetts, Minnesota, Nevada, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, Oregon and Washington, all Democratic-led.
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