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Energy partnership between Türkiye, Iraq gets new, ‘historic’ dimension

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Ankara and Baghdad are adding a new dimension to their energy partnership, moving beyond pipeline transit and toward upstream production after Türkiye’s state-run company took a stake in a major consortium developing oil fields in Iraq’s Kirkuk region.

The agreement, announced on Tuesday, will see the Turkish Petroleum Corporation (TPAO) acquiring a 15% share in BP Energy Company of Kirkuk Limited (BPECKL), a consortium including BP and ConocoPhillips, to develop several of Iraq’s largest oil fields.

The deal was signed ahead of a meeting between President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and Iraqi Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi, who was in Ankara for talks on security, trade, energy, transportation and water management, as well as joint infrastructure projects between the two neighbors.

The consortium will work to increase production at the Baba and Avanah domes, as well as the Bai Hassan, Jambur and Khabbaz fields in Kirkuk.

The fields currently produce around 300,000 barrels of oil per day (bpd), according to the latest publicly available field-level production data from Iraq’s Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative (EITI). Bai Hassan accounts for approximately 133,000 bpd, followed by the Baba and Avanah domes with around 107,000 bpd, while Jambur and Khabbaz produce roughly 38,000 bpd and 25,000 bpd, respectively.

Erdoğan called the agreement “historic,” while Energy and Natural Resources Minister Alparslan Bayraktar said TPAO will work together with BPECKL partners to bring the approximately ⁠3 billion barrel reserve potential into production.

BP confirmed the deal and said it welcomed the partnership with TPAO.

The British energy major estimates the contract area could ultimately hold resource potential of up to 20 billion barrels.

Partnership expands beyond pipeline transit

The agreement comes as Ankara and Baghdad seek to broaden their energy relationship beyond crude oil transportation that has mainly involved the Iraq-Türkiye pipeline, whose 1973 bilateral agreement expired on Monday.

The neighbors are soon expected to sign a deal to keep the Kirkuk-Ceyhan crude oil pipeline open for another year.

On Tuesday, Erdoğan said Türkiye aimed to sign a comprehensive energy cooperation deal with Iraq as soon as possible.

He also said Türkiye could get up to 1 million barrels of oil a day under a cooperation plan discussed on Tuesday with al-Zaidi.

Al-Zaidi, who emerged as a consensus candidate in Iraq after months of deadlock over the premiership following last year’s parliamentary elections, was visiting Ankara in the wake of trips to Washington and Tehran.

Following his talks with U.S. President Donald Trump earlier this month, U.S. companies signed agreements and partnerships worth around $60 billion with Iraq, including deals intended to create alternative routes for shipping oil out of the Persian Gulf.

Minister Bayraktar has said Türkiye and Iraq are negotiating a new framework that would cover not only crude oil but also natural gas and wider energy infrastructure cooperation.

As part of the transition, Türkiye has proposed allowing state pipeline operator BOTAŞ to continue transporting Iraqi crude for one year while negotiations on a new long-term agreement continue.

Bayraktar said Iraq requires transportation capacity of around 750,000 bpd. Although current flows stand at roughly 180,000-200,000 bpd, Türkiye says it is prepared to make the full capacity available once exports resume.

One project under consideration is a pipeline that would connect southern Iraq’s Basra to western Iraq’s Haditha and from there to the Ceyhan port in Türkiye and the port of Baniyas on Syria’s coast.

The Kirkuk partnership, meanwhile, is seen as a key step toward Ankara’s goal of making TPAO capable of producing the equivalent of 1 million barrels of oil and natural gas per day.

Analysts see strategic significance

Kate Dourian, a non-resident fellow at the Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington, said TPAO’s participation is closely linked to ongoing negotiations over the future of the Iraq-Türkiye pipeline.

Following the expiration of the previous agreement, both sides are working toward a new framework that is expected to include oil, natural gas and electricity flows, Dourian told Anadolu Agency (AA).

The interim arrangement would allow Iraqi crude exports through Türkiye’s Mediterranean port of Ceyhan to continue while negotiations proceed.

“Under the one-year agreement, Baghdad has committed to increasing flows from 220,000 bpd currently to around 750,000 bpd. Meeting this ambitious target will require further development of the Kirkuk oil field and it makes sense for TPAO to be involved,” Dourian said.

She also noted that partnering with BP and ConocoPhillips could position TPAO for future upstream projects in Iraq and potentially in other countries where the two companies operate.

Mehmet Öğütçü, chair of the London Energy Club, said the partnership represents a milestone in Türkiye’s strategy of becoming not only an energy importer but also a producer and developer of energy resources.

He said energy security is strengthened not simply by purchasing oil but by participating directly in production, adding that Iraq’s estimated 145 billion barrels of proven reserves make it one of the world’s largest holders of oil resources.

According to Öğütçü, TPAO’s presence alongside BP and ConocoPhillips in one of the world’s most productive oil basins will strengthen Türkiye’s position in international energy markets, expand the company’s overseas production portfolio, increase foreign currency revenues and contribute to the country’s long-term energy security.

He added that restoring the strategic role of the Kirkuk-Ceyhan pipeline would also support Türkiye’s ambition to become a regional energy trading hub.

“This agreement should not be viewed merely as a 15% equity stake,” Öğütçü said. “Its real value lies in TPAO joining global energy companies in one of the world’s most important oil provinces,” said Öğütçü.

“The project’s strategic value extends well beyond the size of TPAO’s stake. With an initial resource potential of more than 3 billion barrels of oil equivalent (boe), it represents a long-term strategic gain for Türkiye’s energy security, international production capacity and ambition to become a regional energy hub.”



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Economy

Moscow seizes control of German retailer Metro’s Russian assets

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Russian authorities have taken control of the assets of German wholesale and food retailer giant Metro in the country and put them under temporary administration, according to a decree published Monday, marking the latest in a series of business takeovers linked to countries that back Ukraine.

The decree, signed by President Vladimir Putin, announced that the Russian operations of Metro Cash and Carry had been put under the “temporary management” of a company called UK Torg RUS.

This comes after Moscow earlier this month seized the businesses and assets of Swiss food giant Nestle, as well as French retailer Auchan and the former Leroy Merlin DIY chain.

In its latest yearly report, the company said its sales in Russia amounted to 2.6 billion euros ($2.9 billion) in the 2024/2025 financial year.

The cash and cash equivalents of Metro’s Russian group companies amounted to 152 million euros ($172 million) as of June 30, the company said in its latest quarterly report.

Most Western companies quickly sold their Russian operations and holdings after the Kremlin ordered troops into Ukraine, or at least isolated them, as sanctions have made trading in most goods difficult.

Others remained, citing concerns for their employees or citizens’ well-being, but often sharply scaling back their operations.

Russia has since made it difficult for firms to leave, requiring presidential authorization for deals or seizing the assets outright.

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Erdoğan says Turkish capital market resilient, vows action in funds case

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Türkiye’s capital market is resilient and its foundations are strong, President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan said Monday as he reiterated that the recent issue in the market is restricted to a segment of the market and vowed necessary legal action.

“The problem in question has taken place in a limited part of the fund market. There is no risk that has spread to our financial system,” Erdoğan said.

“The Turkish capital markets is resilient and has strong foundations. It has more than enough capacity to overcome this challenge with ease,” he said in live remarks after the Cabinet meeting in Ankara.

“When the peace of our people is at stake, and when the economic security, prosperity, and development of our 86 million citizens are at stake, we will not show even the slightest hesitation in taking action,” he added.

He also went on to say that authorities “are proceeding with the utmost caution,” given the nature of capital markets, and added that work concerning the liquidation process of the funds that have been closed “is being carried out meticulously.”

The president said the government was working to ensure that all necessary steps were being taken, adding that work was underway to implement measures to prevent such a problem from happening again.

“Türkiye has an economic size approaching $2 trillion today. Türkiye’s financial system is strong,” Erdoğan also said.

Legal proceedings against those involved in market-distorting transactions in the fund market are continuing, Treasury and Finance Minister Mehmet Şimşek said earlier on Monday, adding that liquidity measures needed to support financial stability would be maintained.

Authorities moved in quickly earlier this month to ensure market stability and launched investigations into suspected share-price manipulation in a number of thinly traded stocks that triggered heavy losses and redemption pressures at investment funds.

Meanwhile, Erdoğan also said he would meet his economic team and representatives from the relevant institutions on Tuesday to discuss the matter, adding that the government would not allow people’s rights to be violated.



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Trump unveils $15B Iowa steel project in pre-election push

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U.S. President Donald ⁠Trump announced on Monday plans to ⁠build a multi-billion-dollar steel mill in the Midwest state of Iowa, handing the administration a marquee manufacturing investment ahead of November’s midterm elections.

Trump unveiled the project at the White House with executives from Mesabi Metallics, which recently opened Minnesota’s ​first new iron ore mine in 50 years.

A White House official said the ​plant ⁠investment would amount to $15 billion. The planned plant was also described as “the largest ever” in U.S. history.

The announcement comes as Trump seeks to bolster his economic record ahead of November’s election, with his approval rating plummeting to all-time lows as the Republican Party confronts voter concerns about inflation and the cost of living.

Trump has made tariffs and a revival of U.S. manufacturing central to his economic agenda, arguing that higher barriers to imports will drive investment and jobs back to the United States.

But Republicans are in the midst of several competitive elections in Iowa, a once-swingy state that has more consistently voted for Trump’s party in recent years. Polling this cycle shows a tight race for a seat in the U.S. Senate, as well as its gubernatorial race, where the Democratic candidate, Rob Sand, has led most polls.

The potential $15 billion steel project gives Trump a high-profile investment to tout as he makes that case to voters. It ⁠also ⁠comes as the administration faces pressure to show that its policies imposing broad tariffs on U.S. imports can deliver industrial gains without fueling inflation.

“This is a tremendous investment,” Trump said in the White House’s Oval Office. “Our steel industry is roaring back to life.”

New jobs expected

Global steel markets have been sluggish in recent months due in part to overcapacity, particularly in China, and lackluster demand. In the U.S., however, steel prices have been higher because of trade barriers, boosting the appeal of domestic projects despite their high construction costs.

Trump imposed a 25% tariff on most imported steel during his first term, a levy that his successor, Democrat Joe Biden, largely kept in place.

The new project will be fully vertically integrated, with Mesabi ⁠using iron ore from its Minnesota mine to produce steel in Iowa. The first phase will produce 7.5 million tons of steel annually, with the plant eventually expected to reach 10 million tons, which the White House described as the largest steel plant in U.S. history.

The Wall Street Journal ​first reported the announcement.

The Mesabi steel project would use iron ore extracted from the company’s mine in Nashwauk, Minnesota, roughly 250 ​miles from the Iowa border.

Indian conglomerate Essar Group owns Mesabi and has invested more than $2.5 billion in the Minnesota mine.

Earlier this month, the U.S. Export-Import Bank said it would finance $10 billion for the mine’s expansion, and the bank’s chair, ⁠John Jovanovic, ‌visited the site.

The ‌Minnesota mine is expected to create about 350 jobs, while the Iowa steel plant ⁠is expected to create at least 1,750 permanent jobs, a White House ‌official said. The first phase is also expected to support 5,000 to 6,000 construction jobs.

It was not immediately clear why Mesabi aims to build a steel ​mill in Iowa using iron ore extracted ⁠from Minnesota.

The company was not immediately available to comment.

Power can be a major cost ⁠for steel producers, and commercial electricity prices in Iowa are marginally lower than in Minnesota.

The first phase of the project is ⁠expected to generate $95 billion in total ​economic impact during construction and its first 10 years of operation, according to the White House. First steel production is expected in 2030.

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Potential Merz successor visits Türkiye with large business group

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The premier of Germany’s most populous state has called for a “new chapter” in relations with Türkiye as he kicked off a three-day trip to the country Monday.

Hendrik Wüst, the conservative leader of North Rhine-Westphalia who is widely seen as a potential successor to the under-pressure Chancellor Friedrich Merz, left Dusseldorf for Ankara early Monday with a large delegation, including a high-profile business group.

Wüst was received by President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan shortly after his arrival.

The trip is intended to mark the 65th anniversary of the 1961 recruitment agreement that allowed “guest workers” from Türkiye to work in West Germany. An estimated 3 million of Turkish origin now live in Germany, according to the Federal Statistical Office, with just over half having German nationality.

Wüst noted that one-third of people of Turkish origin in Germany live in North Rhine-Westphalia. “They are naturally part of our state,” said Wüst, the first premier of the state to make an official visit to Türkiye.

The 51-year-old has consistently dismissed speculation about a challenge for the chancellor’s office.

“I want to remain premier of North Rhine-Westphalia,” Wüst told broadcaster ZDF on the eve of his departure, pledging to “get the federal government firing on all cylinders again.”

In Ankara on Monday, Wüst was due to visit a plant belonging to Dusseldorf-based company Henkel and then the mausoleum of Mustafa Kemal Atatürk, the founder of modern Türkiye. A meeting with Turkish business figures was planned for the evening.

On Tuesday, Wüst will hold political talks in the capital before traveling on to Istanbul, where a business conference is scheduled along with the presentation of a prize for tolerance and reconciliation between cultures to former Germany football captain Ilkay Gündoğan.

Ahead of his departure, Wüst said he wants to “focus on the positive for stronger cooperation in future” and argued that critical questions and issues could be raised more easily within a strong and close partnership.

“No [German] region is as closely linked to Türkiye, socially and economically, as North Rhine-Westphalia,” he said.

Trade relations

The annual trade volume between the state and Türkiye stands between 10 billion ($11.38 billion) and 12 billion euros, accounting for around 20% of total German-Turkish trade.

Wüst said there was scope to increase the figure, while calling for further development of the EU-Türkiye Customs Union, including effective mechanisms for resolving legal disputes.

“The Customs Union should be further developed, and we need well-functioning mechanisms for legal disputes so that both countries can benefit more from it,” he said, according to a Turkish transcript of remarks reported by Anadolu Agency (AA).

According to the state government, more than 1,200 Turkish companies operate in North Rhine-Westphalia.

Last year, one in three flights from Germany to Türkiye took off from an airport in North Rhine-Westphalia.

Wüst said discussions about people of Turkish origin in Germany often focused too heavily on integration problems and shortcomings, arguing that the potential created by the Turkish-German community should receive greater attention.

“We should have a discussion about opportunities,” he said, describing the community as a natural bridge between Türkiye and Germany.

Wüst said the state’s industrial history would not have been possible without workers who arrived from Türkiye, Italy, Spain, Portugal, Poland and other countries.

“We should build on this legacy and create a new common economic miracle,” he said, according to a Turkish transcript of remarks reported by Anadolu Agency (AA).

He highlighted the contribution of people of Turkish origin to the mining and industrial sectors as well as to Germany’s postwar reconstruction and energy infrastructure.

Wüst also said the descendants of those workers now occupy positions of responsibility across German society, citing Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution President Sinan Selen, State Minister at the Foreign Ministry Serap Güler and Gonca Türkeli-Dehnert, a senior official in his own state government.

Visa barriers seen as disadvantage

Wüst said difficulties faced by Turkish businesspeople seeking German visas were also creating an economic disadvantage for North Rhine-Westphalia.

He said some businesspeople were obtaining visas from other countries and then traveling to Germany, adding that this was not how the system should work.

“We have to achieve better results on this,” Wüst said, adding that the state government was prepared to work with municipalities while also calling for better functioning of the process at Germany’s Foreign Ministry.

He said Türkiye had recorded significant growth in recent years and that this was positive for both sides. North Rhine-Westphalia was open to investment from Türkiye, he added.

“Germany and North Rhine-Westphalia are a very safe place for foreign investment,” Wüst said, adding that Turkish companies were accompanying his delegation to explore investment opportunities.

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UAE-Türkiye forum focuses on Middle Corridor investment opportunities

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Senior public- and private-sector representatives from Türkiye and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) gathered Monday to explore investment and cooperation opportunities in logistics, transport infrastructure and supply chains.

Officials said the UAE-Türkiye Logistics and Infrastructure Forum in Istanbul sought to strengthen cooperation between the two countries in logistics, transport infrastructure, supply chains and industrial investment.

It also aimed at developing concrete investment and trade opportunities along the Middle Corridor, which connects Europe, the South Caucasus and Central Asia with the Gulf region.

Speaking at the opening, UAE Ambassador to Türkiye Saeed Thani Al Dhaheri said the forum was organized to bring major companies to identify investment opportunities along the Middle Corridor and the Development Road project, while assessing logistics capabilities in Türkiye and the UAE.

The Middle Corridor, officially known as the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route (TITR), is a multimodal land-and-sea trade network connecting China and Central Asia to Europe. Türkiye is a key transit hub in the corridor.

Unveiled in May 2023, the Development Road is a $20 billion regional infrastructure initiative designed to facilitate the transport of goods from the Gulf to Europe via the Grand Faw Port in Basra in southern Iraq. The port would be linked to Türkiye and subsequently to Europe through an extensive network of railways and highways.

In April 2024, Türkiye, Iraq, the UAE and Qatar signed a memorandum of understanding (MoU) for joint cooperation on the project.

“We do not view the Middle Corridor and the Development Route as two competing routes or as alternatives to one another,” said Al Dhaheri, adding that they differ in terms of their directions and the cargo bases they serve.

“Both routes converge in Türkiye and both extend to Europe. This is, by its very nature, a complementary intersection,” he noted.

“The capabilities of Türkiye and those of the United Arab Emirates come together in a natural and complementary way.”

Al Dhaheri also highlighted the growth in bilateral economic ties. Non-oil trade between the two countries surpassed the $40 billion target ahead of schedule, reaching $45.2 billion in 2025.

“This figure represents a 15.5% increase in just one year and is approximately three times the 2022 level,” said the ambassador.

Al Dhaheri attributed the strengthening of ties to high-level contacts between UAE President Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, as well as meetings and reciprocal visits under the countries’ High-Level Strategic Committee.

Also addressing the event, Ali Kamil Özmen, head of the public-private partnership department at the Presidential Investment Office, said Türkiye is supporting its goal of becoming a hub through substantial infrastructure investments.

In a global environment where some trade routes have become unstable due to regional and international geopolitical developments, Özmen said the importance of alternative east-west corridors has become even more evident.

The Middle Corridor, with Türkiye at its center, offers a significant time advantage and resilience by reducing transit times from China to Europe to just 18 days, he added.

The Middle Corridor is becoming part of a broader regional connectivity network, supported by $7.8 billion in infrastructure investments by Türkiye and $20 billion in Iraq.



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High airfares could stick around even if jet fuel prices fall

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Travelers could be stuck paying high airfares even if oil and jet fuel prices fall, major U.S. airlines and industry analysts say.

The price of jet fuel shot up after the Iran war began and retreated sharply in the spring before surging again as the summer went on. Such fluctuations make it harder for airlines to plan ahead and give them a reason to be cautious about lowering ticket prices, according to Brett House, an economist who teaches at Columbia Business School.

Jet fuel has risen even faster than oil during the war, reflecting both higher crude prices and tight supplies of the refined fuel that is one of airlines’ largest operating expenses. Carriers cut some less profitable flights and raised fares and baggage fees, although major U.S. airlines said higher passenger revenue initially covered only part of their soaring fuel costs.

Airfares haven’t moved in lockstep with fuel prices, however. The Argus U.S. Jet Fuel Index plunged from an early April peak of $4.88 a gallon to a wartime low of $2.70 in June, but average fares remained elevated.

The average fare, not including optional fees for services such as checked bags and seat selection, rose from $405 in the last three months of 2025 to $428 in the first quarter of this year and to $436 in the April-June period, according to the Bureau of Transportation Statistics.

Part of the disconnect between fuel prices and airfares comes down to timing, House said. Airlines typically decide several months in advance how many flights to operate and seats to offer, factoring in expected fuel costs and other expenses. They begin selling tickets even earlier. While prices for seats on the same flight can change repeatedly, airlines can’t charge more for seats already sold if fuel prices suddenly spike, he explained.

“It’s not just the level of fuel costs that is a problem or a challenge for airlines,” House said. “It’s also the volatility.”

There are few signs of relief so far for travelers as airlines adjust their schedules and prices for the remainder of the year. In August, U.S. airfares were 23% higher than a year earlier, according to the Labor Department. Jet fuel prices kept climbing this month, reaching $4.53 a gallon on Sept. 17, according to the Argus index.

At $4.30 a gallon Friday, the average price across the four U.S. markets the index tracks remained nearly twice the 2025 average. Travelers shopping for holiday flights already are encountering the highest airfares in a decade, travel-booking company Hopper said in a report published the same day.

The company, which tracks fares available in flight searches, estimated that during the previous week, a round-trip domestic fare averaged $402 for Thanksgiving travel and $452 for Christmas, 31% and 23% more than last year.

And the pressure on airlines and travelers isn’t limited to the United States. Globally, jet fuel averaged about $99 a barrel on Feb. 27, the day before the war began , according to the International Air Transport Association’s Jet Fuel Price Monitor.

Prices more than doubled to $209 by early April, fell for nearly three months and reached $195 a barrel in mid-September following their renewed ascent, IATA said, citing data from S&P Global Energy Platts.

Fuel prices can swing overnight, but airfares decline more slowly

The renewed pressure on jet fuel prices stems from many of the same disruptions that have sent diesel prices soaring.

Fighting has curtailed refinery production and fuel exports from the Middle East, while Ukrainian strikes have damaged Russian refineries. Because diesel and jet fuel are closely related products that compete for refinery output, shortages of one can put additional pressure on the price and availability of the other.

IATA expects fuel to account for nearly one-third of airline operating expenses this year, up from about a quarter in 2025.

By the time fuel prices jumped again, about 35% of United’s tickets for the final three months of the year were already booked and the airline could not increase those fares retroactively, Chief Financial Officer Mike Leskinen said. The airline expects to recover its higher fuel costs through revenue, but not immediately, he said.

Speaking about the rising price of jet fuel at a Sept. 16 investor conference, Leskinen said, “I don’t actually care if it stays high. I just need it to stabilize.”

The time it takes airlines to recoup their costs means travelers may keep paying for a fuel spike even as prices come down. Jet fuel prices need to fall and stay down for airfares to decline on a sustained basis, said Stephen Treanor, a finance professor at California State University, Chico, who has studied airlines’ exposure to fuel price risk.

The speed with which jet fuel prices rose recently has complicated the forecasts of U.S. airlines. As recently as Sept. 10, JetBlue raised its expected average fuel price for the July-September period to $3.96 a gallon. Prices continued climbing afterward, with the Argus U.S. Jet Fuel Index reaching $4.53 a gallon a week later and remaining above $4.25 with just days left in the quarter.

Every penny per gallon adds about $10 million to American Airlines’ quarterly fuel bill, Chief Financial Officer Devon May said. Speaking at the same investor conference this month, May said the latest increases would boost the airline’s fourth-quarter fuel costs by about $1 billion.

American, United and Southwest Airlines have said they are pruning their flight schedules further, particularly on less-profitable routes, due to higher fuel costs. United, for example, pulled some December flights and warned of further cuts in 2027 if fuel remains expensive. American said it expected to grow more slowly next year than it anticipated a few months ago.

Travelers who buy tickets at the last minute are paying a price. The average same-day fare for a one-way domestic Allegiant Air flight jumped 21% in a week, to $280 on Sept. 18, according to a Deutsche Bank analysis of flight pricing. The comparable price for a same-day American Airlines fare was $463, up 6%.

For travelers holding out for cheaper fares, the wait could outlast the war itself.

“The likelihood that fuel surcharges are going to be rolled back and airfares are going to be brought down is very low over the next few months,” House said.

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