Economy
Türkiye’s jobless rate drops to historic low in June
Türkiye’s unemployment rate fell 0.5 percentage points month-on-month to 7.6% in June, marking the lowest level since monthly records began in 2005, official data showed on Thursday.
The number of unemployed people aged 15 and over decreased by 168,000 from the previous month to 2.69 million, according to the Turkish Statistical Institute (TurkStat).
The unemployment rate stood at 6.5% among men, and 9.8% among women.
The number of employed people rose by 227,000 month-on-month to 32.73 million in June, while the employment rate increased by 0.3 percentage points to 48.9%.
The employment rate was 66.1% for men and 32% for women.
Türkiye’s labor force expanded by 58,000 people to 35.42 million, with the labor force participation rate edging up by 0.1 percentage points to 52.9%.
The participation rate was 70.7% among men and 35.4% among women.
Youth unemployment, covering the 15-24 age group, dropped by 1.8 percentage points from the previous month to 12.8%.
The youth unemployment rate was estimated at 10.4% for men and 17.3% for women.
The composite measure of labor underutilization, which includes unemployment, time-related underemployment and the potential labor force, declined by 2 percentage points to 28.8%.
The governor of the Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye (CBRT), Fatih Karahan, has visited Damascus for talks with senior Syrian officials, marking the first visit by a Turkish central bank governor to Syria since 2010.
Karahan began his visit with a meeting at the Turkish Embassy in Damascus with Türkiye’s ambassador to Syria, Nuh Yılmaz. He later met Syrian Foreign Minister Asaad Hassan al-Shaibani during a visit to the Foreign Ministry.
The Turkish central bank governor then held talks with Syrian Central Bank Governor Mohammed Safwat Raslan.
During the meeting, the two sides agreed to establish reciprocal deposit accounts between their central banks, a step aimed at strengthening financial cooperation.
They also agreed to expand technical and institutional cooperation between the two central banks, provide technical support to the Syrian Central Bank and facilitate commercial and financial transactions between the two countries.
As part of the visit, Karahan and Raslan visited the graves of Turkish martyrs at the Umayyad Mosque and the tomb of Saladin, where they offered prayers.
The delegation later toured Damascus’ Old City, visiting the Anbar School, the historic Khalid al-Azm Palace and the Assad Pasha Khan.
Karahan concluded his visit with a trip to Mount Qasioun, where officials briefed him on the planned Qasioun Tour tourism project.
In a post on X, Karahan thanked Syrian officials for their hospitality and expressed confidence that closer cooperation between the Turkish and Syrian central banks would contribute to the economic prosperity of both countries.
“I believe the bonds of friendship and cooperation between our central banks will provide a strong foundation for the shared prosperity and economic development of our countries,” he wrote.
Raslan also said in a post on social media that he was pleased to host Karahan in Damascus.
“What brings us together goes beyond official protocol. It is the bonds of brotherhood and friendship. With this understanding, we are building meaningful partnerships, strengthening our relations and opening new avenues of cooperation for the benefit of our peoples and for a stronger future for both countries,” Raslan said.
Türkiye and Moldova discussed measures to deepen economic and strategic cooperation, including in trade, defense technologies and investment, Trade Minister Ömer Bolat said on Thursday.
Bolat met Moldovan Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Economic Development and Digitalization Eugen Osmochescu and Defense Minister Anatolie Nosatii at the Trade Ministry in Ankara.
The Moldovan officials visited Türkiye for the first Türkiye-Moldova Defense Industry Cooperation Meeting.
During the talks, the sides reviewed steps to accelerate bilateral trade, expand strategic partnerships in the defense industry and technology sectors, and increase mutual investments, Bolat said on Turkish social media platform NSosyal.
Türkiye is determined to advance its economic and strategic cooperation with Moldova through a shared vision and strong political will, he added.
Bolat described Moldova as a friend and strategic partner, saying the two countries would continue carrying their long-standing relations into the future through concrete steps.
Türkiye’s economic confidence index rose 0.9% month-on-month to 99.8 in July, official data showed on Thursday.
The index increased from 98.9 in June, according to the Turkish Statistical Institute (TurkStat).
Despite the monthly improvement, the index remained just below the 100-point threshold separating an optimistic outlook from a pessimistic one.
The consumer confidence index increased 2.2% from the previous month to 89.8, while the services confidence index rose 1.4% to 112.
Confidence in the construction sector climbed 0.6% to 83.5.
Meanwhile, the real sector confidence index, covering the manufacturing industry, fell 0.8% to 101.2.
The retail trade confidence index declined 1.6% to 111 in July.
The index figures are seasonally adjusted, except for the consumer confidence index, which is not affected by seasonal factors.
The U.S. Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged on Wednesday, keeping borrowing costs steady while putting renewed focus on Chair Kevin Warsh’s pledge to bring inflation back to the central bank’s 2% target.
The widely expected decision to leave the benchmark interest rate in the 3.50%-3.75% range drew dissents from three of the 12 members of the policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee who “preferred” a quarter-percentage-point hike at this meeting. Those same three, the presidents of the Fed’s Cleveland, Dallas and Minneapolis regional banks, had also dissented at Jerome Powell’s final meeting as central bank chief in late April, that time in favor of removing the implied promise of lower rates.
Warsh, who took over as head of the Fed in May, has said he has “no tolerance” for inflation that has been running above the central bank’s target for more than five years, and up until last month was accelerating as the war in the Middle East pushed up global fuel and food prices, and investment in data centers and other spending tied to artificial intelligence drove up demand.
“Inflation remains elevated relative to the Committee’s 2% goal,” the Fed said in a short policy statement after the end of its latest two-day meeting. It replicated word for word all of the June 17 statement’s assessment of the economy.
The Fed said economic activity is “expanding at a solid pace,” noting, as it did in June, that job gains “have kept pace with the workforce, and the unemployment rate has changed little.”
In leaving the policy rate pinned in the range it has been since December, Fed policymakers are embracing the idea that current borrowing costs are creating enough friction in the economy to reduce any inflation that isn’t, like the effect of tariffs on goods prices, expected to fade on its own.
Warsh has said little about the mix of risks and nothing about the outlook for the policy rate, though he has expressed the expectation that rising productivity aided by AI will allow the economy to grow faster without also pushing up inflation.
Financial markets ahead of this week’s meeting had priced in about a one-in-three chance of a rate hike and, absent such a move at this week’s meeting, nearly a 100% chance of an increase in September. By then, Fed policymakers will have in hand two more monthly readings on inflation and the jobs market, giving them a better picture of whether the cooling price pressures evident last month have continued.
Ankara and Baghdad are adding a new dimension to their energy partnership, moving beyond pipeline transit and toward upstream production after Türkiye’s state-run company took a stake in a major consortium developing oil fields in Iraq’s Kirkuk region.
The agreement, announced on Tuesday, will see the Turkish Petroleum Corporation (TPAO) acquiring a 15% share in BP Energy Company of Kirkuk Limited (BPECKL), a consortium including BP and ConocoPhillips, to develop several of Iraq’s largest oil fields.
The deal was signed ahead of a meeting between President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and Iraqi Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi, who was in Ankara for talks on security, trade, energy, transportation and water management, as well as joint infrastructure projects between the two neighbors.
The consortium will work to increase production at the Baba and Avanah domes, as well as the Bai Hassan, Jambur and Khabbaz fields in Kirkuk.
The fields currently produce around 300,000 barrels of oil per day (bpd), according to the latest publicly available field-level production data from Iraq’s Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative (EITI). Bai Hassan accounts for approximately 133,000 bpd, followed by the Baba and Avanah domes with around 107,000 bpd, while Jambur and Khabbaz produce roughly 38,000 bpd and 25,000 bpd, respectively.
Erdoğan called the agreement “historic,” while Energy and Natural Resources Minister Alparslan Bayraktar said TPAO will work together with BPECKL partners to bring the approximately 3 billion barrel reserve potential into production.
BP confirmed the deal and said it welcomed the partnership with TPAO.
The British energy major estimates the contract area could ultimately hold resource potential of up to 20 billion barrels.
Partnership expands beyond pipeline transit
The agreement comes as Ankara and Baghdad seek to broaden their energy relationship beyond crude oil transportation that has mainly involved the Iraq-Türkiye pipeline, whose 1973 bilateral agreement expired on Monday.
The neighbors are soon expected to sign a deal to keep the Kirkuk-Ceyhan crude oil pipeline open for another year.
On Tuesday, Erdoğan said Türkiye aimed to sign a comprehensive energy cooperation deal with Iraq as soon as possible.
He also said Türkiye could get up to 1 million barrels of oil a day under a cooperation plan discussed on Tuesday with al-Zaidi.
Al-Zaidi, who emerged as a consensus candidate in Iraq after months of deadlock over the premiership following last year’s parliamentary elections, was visiting Ankara in the wake of trips to Washington and Tehran.
Following his talks with U.S. President Donald Trump earlier this month, U.S. companies signed agreements and partnerships worth around $60 billion with Iraq, including deals intended to create alternative routes for shipping oil out of the Persian Gulf.
Minister Bayraktar has said Türkiye and Iraq are negotiating a new framework that would cover not only crude oil but also natural gas and wider energy infrastructure cooperation.
As part of the transition, Türkiye has proposed allowing state pipeline operator BOTAŞ to continue transporting Iraqi crude for one year while negotiations on a new long-term agreement continue.
Bayraktar said Iraq requires transportation capacity of around 750,000 bpd. Although current flows stand at roughly 180,000-200,000 bpd, Türkiye says it is prepared to make the full capacity available once exports resume.
One project under consideration is a pipeline that would connect southern Iraq’s Basra to western Iraq’s Haditha and from there to the Ceyhan port in Türkiye and the port of Baniyas on Syria’s coast.
The Kirkuk partnership, meanwhile, is seen as a key step toward Ankara’s goal of making TPAO capable of producing the equivalent of 1 million barrels of oil and natural gas per day.
Analysts see strategic significance
Kate Dourian, a non-resident fellow at the Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington, said TPAO’s participation is closely linked to ongoing negotiations over the future of the Iraq-Türkiye pipeline.
Following the expiration of the previous agreement, both sides are working toward a new framework that is expected to include oil, natural gas and electricity flows, Dourian told Anadolu Agency (AA).
The interim arrangement would allow Iraqi crude exports through Türkiye’s Mediterranean port of Ceyhan to continue while negotiations proceed.
“Under the one-year agreement, Baghdad has committed to increasing flows from 220,000 bpd currently to around 750,000 bpd. Meeting this ambitious target will require further development of the Kirkuk oil field and it makes sense for TPAO to be involved,” Dourian said.
She also noted that partnering with BP and ConocoPhillips could position TPAO for future upstream projects in Iraq and potentially in other countries where the two companies operate.
Mehmet Öğütçü, chair of the London Energy Club, said the partnership represents a milestone in Türkiye’s strategy of becoming not only an energy importer but also a producer and developer of energy resources.
He said energy security is strengthened not simply by purchasing oil but by participating directly in production, adding that Iraq’s estimated 145 billion barrels of proven reserves make it one of the world’s largest holders of oil resources.
According to Öğütçü, TPAO’s presence alongside BP and ConocoPhillips in one of the world’s most productive oil basins will strengthen Türkiye’s position in international energy markets, expand the company’s overseas production portfolio, increase foreign currency revenues and contribute to the country’s long-term energy security.
He added that restoring the strategic role of the Kirkuk-Ceyhan pipeline would also support Türkiye’s ambition to become a regional energy trading hub.
“This agreement should not be viewed merely as a 15% equity stake,” Öğütçü said. “Its real value lies in TPAO joining global energy companies in one of the world’s most important oil provinces,” said Öğütçü.
“The project’s strategic value extends well beyond the size of TPAO’s stake. With an initial resource potential of more than 3 billion barrels of oil equivalent (boe), it represents a long-term strategic gain for Türkiye’s energy security, international production capacity and ambition to become a regional energy hub.”
Türkiye and Tunisia stressed Wednesday their intention to elevate their bilateral trade volume through new collaborative agreements.
Türkiye’s Deputy Trade Minister Mahmut Gürcan noted that countries now seek strategic production and investment partners alongside traditional trade relationships.
Gürcan was speaking at the Türkiye-Tunisia Business and Investment Development Forum in Istanbul, attended by senior officials and sector representatives from the two countries.
Türkiye’s exports to Tunisia reached $1.2 billion (TL 56.88 billion) in 2025, marking an 11.6% increase, while imports from the country stood at $350 million.
Gürcan emphasized that the goal is not only to export but also to purchase Tunisian products to foster a mutually beneficial economic relationship.
Banu Küçükel, chair of the Foreign Economic Relations Board (DEIK) Türkiye-Tunisia Business Council, highlighted that Tunisia serves as a strategic gateway to Africa.
Küçükel stated that the two countries have strong complementary advantages in sectors such as automotive, machinery, electronics, textiles and agriculture.
Participants held bilateral meetings during the forum to explore new trade and investment opportunities.
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