Economy
Türkiye targets first small modular reactor for early 2030s
Türkiye plans to commission its first small modular reactor (SMR) in the first half of the 2030s as part of its broader nuclear energy strategy, Energy and Natural Resources Minister Alparslan Bayraktar said Wednesday.
Bayraktar’s remarks came a day after Ankara launched a new cooperation with the U.S. to conduct a technical study of small modular reactors and fourth-generation nuclear technologies for potential deployment in Türkiye.
The project, agreed on the sidelines of the U.N. General Assembly in New York, will be funded by the U.S. Trade and Development Agency (USTDA) in collaboration with state-owned Türkiye Nuclear Energy.
The study will assess, from technical, economic, legislative and licensing perspectives, SMR designs from four U.S. companies and five fourth-generation reactor technologies.
The agreement would also cover Central Asia and the Turkic republics, Bayraktar told a meeting with U.S. businesspeople during the Türkiye Investment Conference organized by the Foreign Economic Relations Board (DEIK) Türkiye-U.S. Business Council (TAIK).
Türkiye has industrial capacity in the nuclear sector and wants to develop capabilities on the technology side as well, he said, adding that Ankara was also exploring nuclear cooperation opportunities with Canada.
Bayraktar said the government was working on regulations that could include incentives and exemptions for companies investing in SMRs.
“Hopefully, we will see the first SMR in Türkiye in the first half of the 2030s,” Bayraktar said. “There is a global race in this area. But we have not seen a reactor yet. We want Türkiye to be at the stage where this technology takes off.”
Türkiye is months away from the planned launch of the initial reactor of its first nuclear power plant, Akkuyu. The four-reactor plant is being built by Russia’s state-owned nuclear company Rosatom in the southern Mersin province.
Akkuyu’s four reactors will have a combined installed capacity of 4,800 megawatts (MW). Once all units are operational, it is expected to supply about 10% of Türkiye’s electricity demand.
Ankara plans to construct two additional plants, one in Sinop on the Black Sea coast and one in the Thrace region.
Türkiye has accelerated talks with Canada on the projects, while also being in contact with China, Russia and South Korea.
EDF cooperation in nuclear energy
Bayraktar said France’s state-owned EDF had significant expertise in nuclear energy and that Türkiye planned to sign a cooperation agreement with the company soon.
He stressed that nuclear cooperation should not be limited to investment, saying experience-sharing in areas such as operations and safety was also important.
Bayraktar also said Türkiye expects data centers’ electricity demand to reach between 5 and 10 terawatt-hours by around 2035.
Energy infrastructure planned for Development Road
Bayraktar said energy infrastructure would be a key component of the Development Road project.
“We want to establish natural gas and oil pipelines as well as an electricity interconnection,” he said, adding that billions of dollars in annual revenues from the energy infrastructure could help finance the wider Development Road infrastructure.
He also highlighted transport electrification as critical to reducing Türkiye’s dependence on imported energy.
Türkiye will need 13 million electric vehicles and at least 1.3 million charging stations by 2035 to manage rising oil demand, Bayraktar said.
He estimated that the country would need $50 billion of investment in distribution networks and $30 billion in transmission infrastructure by 2035 to support that transition.
Critical minerals part of energy strategy
Bayraktar said Türkiye viewed mining as an integral part of its broader energy strategy, rather than as a separate sector.
He identified gold as a critical mineral for Türkiye alongside rare earth elements, noting the country’s high level of gold imports.
Türkiye is working on rare earth processing and enrichment capabilities, while state-owned Eti Maden is expected to pursue a more aggressive growth strategy in strategic minerals, he said.
“Without mining there is no industry, and without it there is no energy transition,” Bayraktar said.
The Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) lifted its 2026 and 2027 inflation forecasts for Türkiye on Wednesday, while also downgrading its economic growth projections for both years.
In its latest economic outlook, the OECD raised its headline inflation forecast for Türkiye to 31.5% for 2026 from 28.4% in June, placing it above Turkish authorities’ latest projections. Its inflation projection for 2027 was also raised to 24.7% from 18.3%.
It also cut the economic growth forecast to 2.7% from 3.1% for 2026, and to 3.6% from 3.8% for 2027.
As an energy importer, Türkiye has seen high inflation in recent years, although authorities have managed to lower it significantly compared to 85.5% in late 2022 and around 70% in May 2024. Since then, helped by central bank tightening, inflation dropped to 31.5% in August.
However, amid higher global energy prices, the progress on disinflation has been somewhat limited throughout the year, which has also prompted the government to change its main forecasts.
Under the new Medium-Term Program (MTP), Turkish authorities expect inflation at 28.4% by the end of the year. It is projected to fall to 21% in 2027, 13.5% in 2028 and 9% in 2029.
While energy and fertilizer costs remain a headwind, the OECD said it expects inflation in Türkiye to keep moderating, with disinflation set to continue into 2027.
In June, the OECD had cut its 2026 growth forecast for Türkiye, citing weaker domestic demand amid high energy and commodity prices and tighter financial conditions, leaving its 2027 growth outlook unchanged.
The revisions come as the OECD slightly raised its global growth forecasts for this year, saying AI-driven investment is helping the world economy hold up better than expected, even as a more entrenched energy shock weighs on the outlook for 2027.
Türkiye has strengthened its fight against money laundering and terrorist financing, but more is needed when it comes to tracing cross-border criminal proceeds and recovering illicit assets, the Financial Action Task Force (FATF) said in its latest assessment.
The watchdog said on Wednesday that Türkiye had improved interagency coordination, financial intelligence and international cooperation since its previous comprehensive review in 2019, while money-laundering investigations, prosecutions and convictions had risen significantly.
The FATF’s mutual evaluation of Türkiye assessed the effectiveness of the country’s measures against money laundering, countering terrorist financing and proliferation financing and the level of compliance with the FATF Recommendations, at the time of its on-site visit in November 2025.
“The assessment found that Türkiye has strengthened its defenses against illicit finance, including improving the use of financial intelligence and international cooperation for pursuing money laundering, terrorist financing and predicate offenses,” the organization said.
“However, Türkiye should further prioritize money laundering investigations and prosecutions related to certain high-risk predicate offenses, and strengthen its capacity to identify, trace and recover criminal assets located abroad,” it added.
Türkiye received no “non-compliant” ratings across FATF’s 40 technical recommendations, although it was rated “partially compliant” on two, and the watchdog said shortcomings remained in complex high-risk cases and in identifying and recovering criminal assets abroad.
Commenting on the evaluation, published on Sept. 23, the Financial Crimes Investigation Board (MASAK), operating under the Treasury and Finance Ministry, welcomed the findings and also said that effectively combating money laundering and the financing of terrorism “will continue to be among our main priorities.”
“These results constitute an important indicator of the level our country has reached and show that, through legislative efforts, institutional arrangements, and practices, our country is steadily strengthening its capacity in combating money laundering, the financing of terrorism, and the financing of the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction,” it said.
It also noted that “it has also been clearly certified by the FATF that our country does not have a strategic deficiency in the areas of anti-money laundering, related predicate offenses, combating the financing of terrorism, or combating the financing of the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction, and therefore there is no risk of being on the grey list.”
The watchdog removed Türkiye from its “grey list” in 2024.
Global wheat buyers who have delayed restocking their inventories are bracing for higher costs when they return to the market in the coming weeks, with world prices soaring as the Russia-Ukraine war shows no signs of abating.
Top wheat importers in Asia, the Middle East and Africa that were counting on the Black Sea region for wheat have been finding it hard to secure supplies, as attacks on vessels and port infrastructure have brought cargo movements to a near standstill since July.
The constraints have triggered a rally in prices, with benchmark Chicago futures climbing 40% from June lows to a three-and-a-half-year high and physical prices from alternative exporters surging, threatening a fresh bout of food inflation for some of the world’s most vulnerable consumers.
Most global importers have held off making alternative purchases for the past few months, hoping for an agreement between Russia and Ukraine to allow grain shipments, but local supplies are running thin, especially in import-dependent Asia, traders and millers said.
Competition for cargoes is poised to intensify until the end of the year, when the Southern Hemisphere harvest kicks in, with prices set to rise further in the meantime.
“The Black Sea is an important region for shipping grains, and if buyers are not able to get grain out of this region, they have to look elsewhere for supplies, which is going to drive prices up further,” said Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank.
While some Middle Eastern and African buyers are already seeking alternatives, some importers say they have supplies that could last until November or year-end, before they need to seek larger volumes.
Ships stuck
Russian wheat exports are on track to decline to around 1 million tons in September from 5 million tons last year, while Ukraine will ship about 1 million tons this month, half of last September’s levels, according to Kpler estimates.
The crunch will hurt Asia the most in the near term.
“There are very few ships going in to load, and whatever little is being exported out of Russia and Ukraine is going to some buyers in the Middle East and Africa. Nothing is heading to Asia,” said Ishan Bhanu, an agricultural analyst at commodities data firm Kpler.
No. 2 global importer Indonesia has received only about 60,000 tons from the Black Sea this month, down from half a million tons last September, he said.
Indonesian millers are turning to other suppliers, including Argentina, and are paying around 20% to 25% more for Australian wheat than the prices at which they previously booked Black Sea cargoes, traders said.
While some millers have started booking bulk wheat cargoes from Australia and Argentina, others have turned to smaller shipments to ride out immediate tightness, traders said.
A senior executive at a Southeast Asian milling company said it has booked some containers from Australia to replace Russian and Ukrainian wheat, but was not buying bulk quantities because of the high cost.
“Prices have risen quite a bit, and we are not in a position to pass on the entire cost to our flour buyers,” the executive said, declining to be named as they were not authorized to speak with the media.
Black Sea wheat from Romania is quoted at around $340 per ton C&F to Southeast Asia and Australian Premium White wheat at around $345 per ton for October shipment, some 25% higher than Black Sea wheat was trading before the shipping crisis.
Dwindling supplies
Top global buyer Egypt is scheduled to receive less than a tenth of the volume it received from Russia and Ukraine in the September-to-October period last year. But it has some leeway.
“Importers cannot wait forever but can wait for quite a long time as the harvests in the Middle East and North Africa have just arrived, giving breathing space but of course not for the full season,” said one European trader.
In the first half of September, Egypt’s wheat imports dropped to 143,870 tons, from 876,139 tons a year ago, when Russia and Ukraine accounted for a bulk of the shipments, according to official data.
Egypt is turning to France and other European suppliers, diversifying away from Ukraine and Russia, Minister of Supply Sherif Farouk said on Sunday.
However, some Egyptian buyers are still shying away from alternatives, as millers prefer wheat varieties they are accustomed to processing and have domestic supplies to draw on, Cairo-based traders said.
Many mills in Egypt are operating at 30% of capacity, said Hesham Soliman, an Alexandria-based trader, as they hold out for prices that could drop as much as one-fifth if Black Sea shipping is restored.
“They are all waiting to see Russia and Ukraine sit down. The market is paranoid that if this happens, then the market will suddenly go down $50 or $60 per ton.”
Almost half a million investors hold stakes in more than 100 Turkish investment funds worth around $18 billion, which authorities last week ordered to be liquidated during a market selloff, the capital markets regulator said Wednesday.
Turkish authorities also took steps last week to support financial stability, including measures to boost Turkish lira liquidity and ease some capital and margin requirements after some funds struggled to meet withdrawals during a stock market sell-off.
The Capital Markets Board, or SPK, said in a statement that the number of individual investors in the funds affected was 455,758, citing central securities depository records.
SPK mandated Işbank and Ziraat Bank to oversee the liquidation of 131 investment funds managed by seven portfolio management companies, including Tera Portföy, Pusula Portföy and Hedef Portföy, on the TEFAS electronic fund platform.
Meanwhile, authorities have widened an investigation launched by prosecutors last week after the SPK filed criminal complaints over transactions in shares of companies Katılımevim, Gündoğdu Gıda and Destek Finans.
Turkish media reported that five people who were detained in recent days, including Pusula Holding Chair Serdar Turhan, Tera Yatırım Holding Chair Emre Tezmen and three fund administrators, had appeared in court Wednesday and had been jailed pending trial.
Justice Ministry said in a statement Tuesday that individuals faced charges including violating Türkiye’s capital markets law, membership of a criminal organization, and aggravated fraud committed by company executives or others acting on behalf of a company during commercial activities.
Treasury and Finance Minister Mehmet Şimşek said Friday that the liquidation of funds would not put pressure on the Borsa Istanbul Stock Exchange because regulatory changes should prevent any contagion risk.
Economic growth has remained “resilient” in many countries despite the war in the Middle East and energy pressures, the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) said in its interim report on Wednesday, as it slightly raised forecasts for the year.
Global economic growth is now seen at 2.9%, a 0.1-point increase from earlier estimates in June, the Paris-based group of 38 industrialized countries said.
Even though energy prices have soared since the U.S. and Israel launched strikes against Iran last February, the OECD noted that “broader financial conditions remain supportive,” as seen in rising equity markets and continued access to credit.
“Sizeable oil inventories, additional supply from outside the Gulf economies and discretionary government support measures all helped to cushion the impact on the global economy,” the group said in its quarterly update.
It also cited the massive investments in artificial intelligence and the resulting boost to production and trade, which could result in “stronger growth than projected”.
But global growth has slowed sharply from the 3.4% last year, and the group trimmed its 2027 growth forecast by 0.1 percentage point to 3%.
Governments have started raising interest rates to contain inflation pressures stemming from high oil and gas prices, which have sent diesel and other fuel costs to highs not seen in years.
That has sent government bond yields to levels not seen since the global financial crisis of 2007-2008, pushing up borrowing costs even as countries worldwide grapple with high debt and deficits.
“Rising bond yields underline more than ever the need for enhanced efforts to contain and reallocate government spending, improve public-sector efficiency and strengthen revenues to ensure longer-term debt sustainability and maintain the ability of governments to react to significant shocks,” the OECD said.
It also warned of prolonged inflation if the Mideast war continues, with price increases in the G-20 group of developing and emerging economies seen at 4.1% overall this year.
“Other significant downside risks include potential weather-related supply shocks, including a very strong El Nino, that adversely impact agricultural production and add to rising food price pressures,” it said.
For the United States, it expects gross domestic product (GDP) to expand 2.2% this year, up 0.2 points from its June forecast, while the eurozone could see growth of 1%, also up 0.2 points.
Japan’s growth is now seen at 0.8%, up 0.2 points, while the forecast for the Chinese economy, the world’s second-largest, was held steady at 4.5%.
Saudi Arabia has restarted operations at its vital East-West pipeline and could resume exports from the Red Sea port of Yanbu later Tuesday, a report said, as signs mount of an increase in Middle Eastern oil flows.
The resumption of supplies Tuesday helped to drive selling on global oil markets. Global oil benchmark Brent crude fell by more than $2 a barrel towards $97, its lowest since Sept. 8.
Drone attacks Saudi Arabia said were launched from Iraq forced the kingdom to shut the pipeline on Sept. 11, halting crude loadings at the key Yanbu port.
Since the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran disrupted oil flows from Saudi Arabia and its Gulf neighbors through the Strait of Hormuz, Riyadh has been using the pipeline to reroute around 4 million barrels per day, around 4% of global supply, to Yanbu.
Full resumption could take weeks
The pipeline was pumping at a low rate after its restart, Reuters reported, citing sources briefed on the matter.
Aramco was seeking to get the pumping rate back to 4 million bpd, one of the sources said. The pipeline has a capacity of 7 million bpd.
Reaching a rate of 40% of capacity will take a couple of days and a full restart will take 6 to 8 weeks, a security source said. A separate oil industry source said a return to full pumping rates would take up to six weeks.
Three pumping stations serving the pipeline were damaged in the drone attack, according to satellite imagery and industry sources. The line is serviced by 11 pumping stations and two separate pressure relief stations, according to industry assessments.
The pipeline will resume crude supply to Aramco refineries located on the Red Sea coast, one of the sources said, adding that one cargo was scheduled to load at Yanbu later Tuesday. The person said it would be bound for China.
Traders were getting ready for Saudi oil loadings by moving tankers to Egypt’s Mediterranean Port Said for ship-to-ship transfers and also to Sidi Kerir, another two trading sources said.
Oil prices have also dropped this week after Iran said it could reopen the Strait of Hormuz within seven days and because Saudi Arabia has loaded more ships at its Ras Tanura port, raising expectations of increased exports through the Strait.
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