As he unveiled his new “security concept” over the weekend, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu expectedly touched upon Türkiye, the main adversary of his government’s genocidal policies targeting Palestinians and growing Israeli expansion in the region. As he listed alliances in the region, he put Türkiye squarely into the “Sunni Diamond Alliance” with Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Pakistan, in front of a map apparently drawn by a German think tank.

Netanyahu’s press conference, where he was flanked by maps, is part of his campaign for upcoming elections and, unsurprisingly, was followed on Monday by a visit to an unspecified military base where he warned that they would “strike enemies at a moment’s notice.” He said that they were preparing various contingencies in case of a confrontation with Türkiye, noting that they were working to “stop” Ankara from expanding its military presence in Syria. Netanyahu also acknowledged that they had different views of Türkiye than U.S. President Donald Trump, who announced his endorsement for Netanyahu on Sunday.

Türkiye, which long championed the Palestinian cause, stepped up anti-Netanyahu rhetoric as the Tel Aviv government escalated attacks on Gaza since 2023. The two countries drastically cut off once-budding relations and President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan remains the harshest critic of Israel, describing Netanyahu as “Hitler” at times and slamming genocide committed by the Zionist administration.

Hazar Vural, an academic at the Political Science and International Relations Department at Istanbul Aydın University, says Netanyahu and his ministers stepped up their smear campaign against Türkiye, the government, Erdoğan, the Turkish army and officials. She singles out Türkiye as a different opponent for Israel. “With American support, Israel pursues policies that exploit certain regional actors’ dependencies, seek normalization agreements with them, bring them under control through territorial occupation, fuel separatist conflicts and manufacture artificial crises, all while continuing its genocide and occupation. But when it comes to Türkiye, Israel lacks the ability to shape and control Türkiye’s actions or its growing material power. No other actor has that ability, either,” Vural told Daily Sabah.

“We are therefore witnessing Israel confront a reality that differs from what it is accustomed to. This has been unfolding for nearly two years. What happened in Syria was a key example. As the government changed in Syria, Türkiye sought to help the country recover, build win-win policies and ensure that Syrian territory would no longer provide fertile ground for terrorism. Meanwhile, Israel bombed Syria thousands of times and tried to reshape the country. This makes it clear that Türkiye’s and Israel’s spheres of influence intersect in Syria. Over the past 22 months, the possibility of a confrontation between the two countries playing out in Syria was therefore very real, and we have already seen some preliminary moves in that direction,” she added.

“But there is an important reality here: Syria lies within Türkiye’s strategic hinterland, and Türkiye is directly affected by its security environment. Israel, meanwhile, is trying to reshape the region in line with its grand strategy. Its actions have obstructed Syria’s recovery, expanded its occupation of Syrian territory and demonstrated that it does not want Syria to grow stronger or recover. Indeed, Israel does not even want Syria to remain unified,” she also said.

Israel was quick to exploit the transitional process in Syria in the wake of the December 2024 revolution. It declared a 1974 disengagement agreement void and captured a buffer zone between Israel and Syria.

Assistant professor Sinan Demirtürk of Gazi University, who serves as chair of the Türkiye Policy and Strategic Research Foundation (TURPAV), says that it was clear that Israel was taking steps in Syria, Lebanon and the Mediterranean to counter Türkiye’s future military potential and its national defense industry. “It is also clear that Israel views Türkiye as a major threat and sees its emergence as a significant, peaceful and rational regional power as a source of concern,” he stated.

“Nevertheless, in the short term, a direct military engagement or armed confrontation with Türkiye, whether in Syria or the Mediterranean, would not be reasonable or justifiable for Israel in terms of its own survival, military capabilities or diplomatic relationships,” Demirtürk added.

Election narrative

He underlined that Netanyahu’s remarks were solely part of the election campaign narrative and sought to reinforce a political message.

Still, Türkiye has been cautious about Israel’s next moves in the region, after its attacks expanded to Lebanon first and then Syria. As a matter of fact, the launch of the terror-free Türkiye initiative to eliminate the threat of the terrorist group PKK was partly justified by the need to “establish a united homefront,” as its proponents, President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and government ally Nationalist Movement Party (MHP), stressed while touting it. For decades, the PKK has been the utmost security threat for Türkiye both within the country and beyond its borders, as the group was based in northern Iraq and has wings in Syria and Iran.

“In recent years, Türkiye’s security and Syria’s security have increasingly converged on several fronts, including efforts to eliminate the PKK terrorist group, a consideration that also extends to Iraq,” Vural says.

“Türkiye is seeking to prevent Syria and Iraq from becoming casualties of instability and other terrorist groups. We can also understand the concepts of a “Terror-Free Türkiye” and a “Terror-Free Region” from this perspective,” she said. Ankara believes dissolution of PKK will also be a relief for the broader region.

As for the “Sunni Diamond Alliance” Netanyahu mentioned, Vural says Türkiye was “an actor with the strategic judgment to understand that it cannot entrust its security entirely to any defense or security pact of which it is a member, nor reduce its security policy to such arrangements.”

Türkiye joined Saudi Arabia and Pakistan in August for the Joint Makkah Defense Agreement, which later evolved into the “Mecca Defense Alliance.” The alliance primarily focuses on security cooperation and faced its first test when Houthis in Yemen stepped up attacks on Saudi Arabia this month. Türkiye has signaled that Egypt may also join the alliance in the future and offered substantial military assistance to the Kingdom.

“Netanyahu’s statements are intended to create a new perception of threat and lay the groundwork for new alliances and defense cooperation agreements against the Republic of Türkiye, particularly concerning Mediterranean policy and North Africa. In this regard, we know that Israel is seriously concerned about the Mecca Alliance, or a defense agreement based on the Mecca initiative, which Egypt could also join or participate in over the longer term. Israel is not assessing the current situation solely in terms of the immediate consequences the Mecca agreement might produce. Rather, it is looking at the issue in the context of the implications it could have for Middle Eastern and Mediterranean policy three, five or 10 years from now,” Demirtürk says.

“Over the long term, Israel is also deeply concerned that this military cooperation and common defense framework could develop into a new military formation capable of preventing its occupations, threats and massacres in the region. That is why Israel is already expressing concern about the potential alliance, which could take shape and expand over the coming year, bringing together Türkiye, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia and Egypt, and possibly Qatar, by referring to it as a ‘Sunni axis alliance.'” “Israel fears the implications of such a grouping for its plans in the Middle East,” he added.

“These countries also oppose Israel’s occupation of southern Lebanon and its military control in Syria, including in the Golan Heights and the Quneitra region. They have also pursued diplomatic efforts on international platforms against Israel’s occupation of the region. Over the long term, these countries are likely to seek to become a counterbalancing force against Israel’s occupation and expansionist policies. Even if they are unwilling to risk a direct military confrontation with Israel in the short term, their institutional cooperation will inevitably create a new framework and geopolitical landscape to counter Israel’s expansion. Against this backdrop, Netanyahu is already seeking to rally Israel’s radical right-wing electorate against Türkiye and, through the emerging Mecca Alliance, against Pakistan, Saudi Arabia and Egypt. By creating a new perception of threat and emphasizing Israel’s security challenges, he aims to shore up voter confidence in his leadership,” Demirtürk also said.

Netanyahu’s election campaign crudely tapped into right-wing fears with the face of Erdoğan, next to Iranian and Palestinian leaders, New York Mayor Zohran Mamdani and the Hezbollah leader, all “wanting Netanyahu to lose,” as the prominent billboards across Tel Aviv and Jerusalem claim.

“While Netanyahu benefits domestically from problems and new conflicts by invoking Iran, the cost of this war for the United States is far higher, and its consequences are increasingly negative. It is true that Israel’s security is intertwined with American interests when viewed in the broader context of West Asia. It is also true that the United States is Israel’s greatest supporter in its grand strategy,” Vural says.

Vural noted that the Mecca Defense Alliance was the outcome of an approach Türkiye has advocated for years.

“The broader the alliance becomes, the more quickly the region’s problems can be resolved within the region itself. External actors would then be less able to reshape the region according to their own interests. In this sense, a new defense pact is being established to build something constructive, resolve problems swiftly and deliver win-win outcomes as part of this vision. Ankara has consistently emphasized that the aim is deterrence. Yet less than three months after the initiative emerged, Israel is already trying to attach a sectarian label to it, effectively restricting its scope along sectarian lines. It is attempting to create divisions by exploiting the sectarian card, which has long been used in the region and is all too easy to inflame. Israel also seeks to profit from these tensions by selling weapons. This fits its grand strategy,” Vural stated.

“As in the Flydubai incident, (Netanyahu) seeks to bring regional wars and new formations opposed to Israel to the forefront of public debate, thereby counterbalancing the opposition and rival political parties, which are ahead of him, in a sense. His aim is to consolidate the parliamentary majority once again alongside his coalition partners and the right-wing bloc,” Demirtürk said.

According to Vural, Israel would not risk a confrontation with Türkiye anyway.

Türkiye is the second-largest army of NATO and skilfully pursued relations with different blocs, countries otherwise countering each other. This is most evident in its relations with Russia and Ukraine at the time of the conflict. Israel’s major ally, the United States, also revived its somewhat dormant ties with Türkiye during the second tenure of President Donald Trump.

Implications, consequence

“Such a confrontation would also become a matter for NATO because Türkiye is a member of the alliance, whose collective-defense clause is relevant to security threats involving its members. The United States, too, would be directly implicated. This is something Washington would absolutely not want. Managing the balance therefore becomes, in part, a challenge for the United States, given its influence over Israel and the support and direction it provides,” Vural said.

“Israel, without American support cannot stand up to Türkiye or match its material capabilities, provided we set aside Israel’s nuclear warheads. Israel is a small state without a strategic hinterland, and its military cannot match Türkiye’s in a direct confrontation. However, Israel is an actor that behaves like a terrorist state, sustained by lawlessness and violence and operating without accountability before the international community. It possesses dozens of nuclear warheads for which no one holds it accountable, and it has become so reckless that it might even contemplate using them in Gaza. This would not merely be a matter for Türkiye, nor would it be just another regional war. It would be an act of madness capable of affecting the entire international system and leading to extremely dangerous consequences. No international system or actor would accept or endorse such a scenario,” she added.

“Given the founding principles of the State of Israel and the century-long trajectory of Turkish foreign policy, entering into a direct military confrontation with Türkiye on the ground, or triggering a war or conflict dynamic in the Middle East in which Türkiye could play a central role, would not be an easy prospect for Israel. This is also related to the fact that, despite broad segments of Israeli society supporting wars in the Middle East, including the massacres and occupation in Palestine, as well as the presence of Israeli settlers in Gaza and the West Bank, Israeli citizens may not necessarily hold the same views when it comes to Türkiye. In particular, the large community of Israeli citizens of Turkish origin, whose members migrated from Türkiye to Israel after 1948 and settled there as citizens, would be unlikely to support such a scenario,” Demirtürk pointed out.

Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) Chairperson Devlet Bahçeli on Tuesday firmly rejected proposals for a federal settlement in Cyprus, warning that any concessions affecting Turkish Cypriot sovereignty would threaten the island’s future.

Speaking at his party’s parliamentary group meeting in Ankara, Bahçeli said Türkiye was closely monitoring contacts between representatives of the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (TRNC) and the Greek Cypriot administration.

He expressed concern over reports in the Greek Cypriot media suggesting that the Maraş (Varosha) district could be placed under United Nations administration and Famagusta Port operated under European Commission supervision.

“A united Cyprus federation is nothing but a fantasy and would spell disaster for Turkish sovereignty,” Bahçeli stressed.

He urged Turkish Cypriots to remain vigilant, accusing the Greek Cypriot administration of increasingly aligning itself with Israel’s regional security interests.

“Cyprus has been Turkish for centuries and will remain Turkish forever,” he declared.

Terror-free Türkiye vision

Turning to Türkiye’s ongoing “Terror-free Türkiye” initiative, Bahçeli emphasized that lasting security required a combination of political determination, legal safeguards and public consensus.

He warned that armed groups operating beyond Türkiye’s borders continued to threaten regional stability, stressing that Ankara’s domestic counterterrorism objectives could not be separated from broader regional security.

Bahçeli also called for greater investment in technology, industrial production, agricultural productivity and energy independence, urging universities to contribute more directly to national development.

Addressing regional developments, he condemned Israel’s military actions and expansionist policies, calling for stronger international measures to halt the violence.

He also urged multilateral diplomatic efforts to address instability originating in Yemen and attacks targeting civilians in Saudi Arabia.

The MHP leader further reaffirmed his support for Türkiye’s multidimensional foreign policy, emphasizing cooperation with the Turkic world, Europe and neighboring regions.

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Turkish prosecutors are seeking prison sentences of up to 50 years for 22 former judges and prosecutors accused of orchestrating unlawful detentions in the so-called Revolutionary Headquarters (“Devrimci Karargah”) case, allegedly acting in the interests of the Gülenist Terror Group (FETÖ).

An indictment prepared by the Bakırköy Chief Public Prosecutor’s Office in Istanbul accuses the former judicial officials of abusing their authority to deprive individuals of their liberty through unlawful detention and imprisonment orders between 2009 and 2012, Sabah newspaper reported.

The indictment, accepted by the Bakırköy 7th High Criminal Court, seeks sentences ranging from 10 to 50 years under provisions of the Turkish Penal Code concerning deprivation of liberty through abuse of public office.

Among the defendants are former prosecutors Mehmet Berk and Mehmet Karababa, former judges Ömer Diken and Ali Efendi Peksak, and Metin Özçelik and Rüstem Eryılmaz, all of whom previously held positions in now-defunct specially authorized courts.

Prosecutors allege the defendants acted in accordance with FETÖ’s objectives rather than independently assessing evidence, systematically ordering arrests, extending detentions and rejecting release requests despite insufficient grounds.

Former police chief targeted

The “Revolutionary Headquarters” case became widely known following the arrest of former police chief Hanefi Avcı, who had exposed alleged FETÖ infiltration of Türkiye’s police and judiciary in his book.

Avcı was detained in September 2010, shortly after the book’s publication, and accused of assisting the far-left Revolutionary Headquarters organization and leaking judicial wiretaps.

He was sentenced to 15 years and four months in prison and spent approximately three years and nine months behind bars before being released in June 2014 following a Constitutional Court ruling that his rights had been violated. He was subsequently acquitted.

The latest prosecution followed compensation lawsuits filed by five individuals who were acquitted of charges related to the Revolutionary Headquarters case.

Özgür Cafer Kalafat, Gülseren Poyraz, Muhammet Çetin, Süleyman Gürkan Anıl and Onur Sarıefe successfully sued the Treasury over their detentions, resulting in compensation payments by the state.

According to the indictment, those payments constituted financial losses to the public Treasury and prompted authorities to investigate the judicial officials responsible for the detention decisions.

The Council of Judges and Prosecutors authorized prosecution in October 2024. All 22 defendants had previously been dismissed from judicial service over alleged FETÖ links.

Several defendants also played roles in other controversial investigations, including the Ergenekon, Balyoz (Sledgehammer), match-fixing, Poyrazköy and Hrant Dink cases, which Turkish authorities have described as judicial plots linked to FETÖ.

The indictment alleges the former judicial officials violated principles of impartiality, independence and due process by using their positions to advance the group’s objectives.

Ergenekon, Balyoz, Dink cases

FETÖ was also involved in several high-profile trials, Ergenekon and Balyoz. The Ergenekon conspiracy probe, dating back to 2007, led to a series of trials of military officers, politicians, academics and journalists alleged to be members of Ergenekon, a clandestine organization accused of plotting against the government.

They were convicted in 2013, but the Supreme Court of Appeals later overturned hundreds of convictions in the case. Later, Turkish authorities announced that the 2013 Ergenekon trial was based on fabricated evidence and blamed the prosecutors, who were FETÖ member soldiers, for trying to purge the military of rival officers.

In the Balyoz case, hundreds of Turkish military personnel, including high-ranking generals, were convicted for plotting a coup against the then-newly elected Justice and Development Party (AK Party) government in 2003.

Moreover, the killing of an Armenian Turkish journalist, Hrant Dink, in 2007 was FETÖ’s first attempt to implicate state officials seeking to curb FETÖ’s influence.

Dink, editor-in-chief of the dual-language Agos newspaper, was killed outside his Istanbul office on Jan. 19, 2007, in a case that has since stirred outrage and intrigue.

Gülen was indicted in April 2017 over Dink’s murder, with the prosecution asking for a life sentence and arguing the incident was the beginning of FETÖ’s violent acts to take over the legislative, executive and judicial organs, and all the other state institutions, including the armed forces and police, in Türkiye.

The 120-page indictment said that soldiers and police involved in the Dink murder later played an active role in the July 15 attempted coup, in which 252 people were killed.

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Shifting allegiances in the Turkish opposition laid bare cracks among followers of similar ideologies. The New Party (YP) and Republican People’s Party (CHP) found another reason to attack each other after authorities appointed trustees to Halk TV, a prominent opposition outlet. Halk TV, initially aligned with the CHP, was quick to endorse Özgür Özel after the latter established YP in July, shortly after his ouster as CHP chairman. Last week, authorities launched an operation to capture suspects, including Halk TV owner Cafer Mahiroğlu, on charges of corruption. Mahiroğlu is accused of corruption in public tenders linked to municipalities of the CHP during the tenure of Özel.

CHP Chair Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, who was reinstated to office in May, was the target of Halk TV through negative coverage and has accused it of disseminating fake news. YP supporters were quick to link the corruption probe to Kılıçdaroğlu’s criticism, while the CHP leader denied having any role in the investigation. Kılıçdaroğlu’s supporters, on the other hand, point to shady ties between Halk TV and the Özel-era CHP. The CHP’s provincial branch chair in the central province of Eskişehir, Volkan Enver Kılıç, was vocal in backing the trustee appointment to Halk TV but in turn, incurred the wrath of YP Eskişehir lawmaker Ibrahim Arslan, who branded him a “lowlife.”

Kılıç, however, continued his criticism of the former CHP administration and claimed the party’s mayors were forced to sponsor the TV station. In a statement on Sunday, Kılıç claimed the CHP, under Özel, delivered TL 80 million to Halk TV, “a liar who is living abroad as a fugitive.”

“Halk TV is not a media outlet that was seized because of its journalistic and broadcasting activities. It was seized over allegations of corruption and money laundering amounting to TL 30 billion, as well as alleged commercial fraud, involving its fugitive owner, Cafer Özdemir, who changed his surname to Mahiroğlu. How many millions, or even billions, of liras have you funneled to Halk TV’s fugitive owner from municipalities over the years under the banner of ‘Görkemli Hatıralar?’ Didn’t you pressure mayors to sponsor the program with millions of liras? The facts are there. So are the indictments,” Kılıç said in a statement addressed to the YP cadres.

He was referring to a travel show – which is currently the only show on air at Halk TV – where municipalities run by the CHP were promoted through well-disguised ads. He stated that the municipalities paid at least TL 1 million for securing a spot in one episode of the show. Kılıç also claimed that Mahiroğlu was also involved in the sale of textiles to municipalities.

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Addressing a gathering of mukhtars (village and neighborhood headmen) on the occasion of Mukhtars’ Day on Monday, President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan said Türkiye was surrounded by a “ring of fire.” “We work day and night to spare Türkiye from the turmoil in the region,” he said, referring to Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia that killed more than a dozen people at an airport in Riyadh earlier this month. He also warned against “Zionist Israel doing everything to stir up strife in Syria.”

The president lamented that Israel continued its attacks on Palestine despite cease-fire deals.

“We managed to keep our country away from the conflicts around it. We have not fallen for incitement or provocation. We managed tough processes sensibly and patiently. But as long as we bravely stand with the oppressed, regardless of their faith, just as our ancestors did, they are going to work against us,” he said, in reference to Israel. “We will remain alert to those trying to dash the hopes of our nation, undermine our morale and sow the seeds of discord in our nation,” he added.

“We are in the middle of a great struggle,” he said, also warning against “those seeking to tear our region to shreds.”

Erdoğan’s statements follow Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s press conference over the weekend, during which he signaled a direct confrontation with Türkiye in the future. Netanyahu often portrays Türkiye as a threat as part of his campaign ahead of upcoming elections. The Israeli prime minister and his ministers have threatened Türkiye and sought to discredit the Erdoğan administration through anti-Turkish rhetoric, while Erdoğan has raised the issue of Israel’s genocide of Palestinians on every possible platform. Most recently, he highlighted Israel’s crimes at the United Nations General Assembly in New York last September.

“A storm of crises, growing increasingly severe, is sweeping through our region. The Russia-Ukraine war, just to our north, will enter its fifth year in a few months. Israel’s attacks on Palestine continue unabated despite the agreements signed. Before tensions in our neighbor Iran have fully subsided, a new conflict has now been ignited in Yemen. The Houthi attacks targeting our friend and brother, Saudi Arabia, have further escalated tensions in our region. In the attack they carried out on the airport in Riyadh, many of our Muslim brothers and sisters, including pilgrims traveling for Umrah, lost their lives. Hundreds more were injured,” Erdoğan highlighted. Türkiye has pledged military assistance to Saudi Arabia in the face of Houthi attacks and is part of the Mecca Defense Alliance, which stems from a joint defense agreement Erdoğan signed with Saudi and Pakistani officials in August.

“Unfortunately, the situation in Lebanon is far from encouraging either. We are receiving good news from Syria, but Zionist Israel is doing everything it can to sow discord there as well,” Erdoğan also said. Israel struck Abu Duhur Air Base in Syria last August, claiming that Türkiye would move its troops there, following the fall of the Baathist regime in Syria.

“Remember, great nations face great tests. Throughout history, the Turkish nation has faced truly great trials, just as it has achieved great victories and waged great struggles,” Erdoğan said.

“Sometimes they will target us through their agents operating within our country under the guise of righteousness, such as FETÖ, sometimes through their lobbies abroad, sometimes through their economic hitmen; sometimes through their proxies in the international media and sometimes through their instruments on social media,” Erdoğan also said. The Gülenist Terror Group (FETÖ) targeted Erdoğan in 2016, with a coup attempt by its military infiltrators. Erdoğan escaped the assassination attempt by the group during the coup bid, which was thwarted, at the cost of more than 250 people who died while resisting putschists.

“They will try to distract us and divert us from our path. They will seek to clip our claws and make us abandon our ambitions. God willing, we will not give them that opportunity. We will not bow to those who seek to build a system of prosperity for themselves by exploiting the world and turning our region into a sea of blood. We will remain extremely vigilant against dark and dirty schemes and all such plots. We will stay alert to those who seek to pit Muslims against one another. We will always remain on guard against those who try to shatter our nation’s hopes, undermine its morale and erect walls of discord among us,” Erdoğan also said.

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Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan held a phone call with his Saudi counterpart, Prince Faisal bin Farhan, to discuss regional security issues, Turkish Foreign Ministry sources said Monday.

The two ministers discussed regional security developments, particularly attacks targeting Saudi Arabia’s sovereignty and territorial integrity, according to the sources.

The call came amid heightened tensions in the Middle East over the war involving Iran and renewed fighting in Yemen, where Houthi rebels have targeted Saudi energy infrastructure and aviation facilities, including airports.

Saudi Arabia has led a military coalition against the Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen since 2015, after the group seized the capital, Sanaa, and other parts of the country in 2014.

The Houthis have declared a maritime blockade on Saudi Arabia and captured territory around the Bab el-Mandeb strait, a Red Sea choke point and vital export route for Saudi oil.

The Red Sea is a key shipping route, connecting Asia with Europe via Egypt’s Suez Canal.

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