Economy
Global food prices increased by 1.6 percent in February: FAO
ISTANBUL
World food prices rose 1.6 percent in February on a monthly basis, the U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) said.
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While the meat price index remained stable last month, all other price indices saw increases, with the most significant increases seen in sugar, dairy, and vegetable oils, the organization stated.
World food prices are still 20.7 percent below the peak level reached in March 2022 – just after the start of the Ukraine war – the FAO added.
In February, the cereal price index rose 0.7 percent.
“Wheat export prices increased month-on-month, driven by tighter domestic supplies in the Russian Federation, which constrained export volumes and shifted demand to other suppliers, adding upward pressure on global prices,” said the FAO.
Vegetable oil prices rose 2 percent, driven by higher quotations across palm, rapeseed, soy and sunflower oils.
Dairy prices rose 4 percent, with prices across all major dairy products showing increases in February.
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Sugar prices saw the highest increase in the month with 6.6 percent.
“The increase in world sugar prices was driven by concerns over tighter global supplies in the 2024/25 season,” it said.
“International poultry meat prices declined, driven by abundant global supplies primarily due to high export availabilities from Brazil, despite continuing avian influenza outbreaks in other major producing countries,” it added.
World food prices also rose 9.7 percent year-on-year in February.
A fourth-quarter jet fuel deficit looms for Europe, despite its efforts to secure supplies from faraway countries like South Korea, which is preparing to send its highest volume to Europe in four years this September, according to expert analysis and shipping figures.
The continent has been importing more jet fuel from nations including Nigeria, the United States and Canada since the outbreak of the Iran war over half a year ago, which hit Middle East supplies and cut off around half of Europe’s jet imports.
Europe remains highly exposed to the risk of further supply disruption as Middle Eastern tensions rise.
Consultancy Energy Aspects forecasts that Europe will see a fourth-quarter jet fuel deficit of 510,000 barrels per day, against surpluses of 18,000 bpd in the United States and 419,000 bpd in Asia-Pacific. The third-quarter trend is largely the same.
South Korea in September has become the latest large source of jet fuel shipments to Europe, according to flows data. European imports of the fuel from the Asian nation so far in September stand at 129,000 barrels per day, according to commodities intelligence firm Kpler, the highest since October 2022. LSEG data shows similar volumes.
With the continent expected to remain short of jet fuel, Europe’s imports are set to continue, said James Noel-Beswick, head of commodities at market intelligence firm Sparta Commodities.
Jet fuel is one of the so-called middle distillates, which include diesel and gas oil. European diesel hit a record high this week, firmer than Asia’s diesel markets.
The widening spread between the Asian and European benchmarks is making it more profitable to export barrels into Europe, Noel-Beswick added.
Europe’s jet fuel stocks drop
Imports from South Korea also coincide with low inventories, with stocks held independently in the Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp (ARA) oil refining and storage hub hitting their lowest in seven years in the week to Sept. 10.
Asia is a swing supplier of jet fuel to Europe and traders typically turn there when they judge the arbitrage – the relative prices between the two regions – profitable. Average monthly exports last year were 1.5 million barrels, Kpler data showed.
South Korea’s jet fuel output for July hit a seven-year high of almost 13.89 million barrels, while exports reached a 3-1/2-year high, government data showed.
An increase in refinery crude processing rates has contributed to this rise in output, and traders expect crude runs for August to be firmer than July. Provisional government data showed July refining runs at 2.7 million barrels per day, up by 16% from June.
Flights in and out of Scotland, Northern Ireland and the north of England were disrupted Monday due to an air traffic control failure, the latest embarrassment to afflict the U.K. national air traffic controller.
Although NATS, formerly known as National Air Traffic Services, said the issue at its Prestwick center in Scotland has been fixed, the repercussions would likely continue through the day at the very least, with flights canceled or delayed.
“We are working with airports and airlines to safely lift air traffic regulations as quickly as we can to minimize any further disruption,” it said in a statement. “We apologize for the disruption.”
NATS said airports south of Manchester, including those in and out of London, are “broadly unaffected.”
Manchester, Belfast International, Edinburgh and George Best Belfast City airports have seen the most disruption, according to aviation analytics company Cirium.
NATS said the disruption is unconnected with the software glitch that led to the cancellation of over 2,000 flights in and out of the United Kingdom two weeks ago. The chaos prompted mounting calls for its chief executive Martin Rolfe to stand down.
In a report on the outage published Friday, NATS said a software defect in the National Airspace System, which allocates codes so air traffic controllers can identify flights on radar, was behind the decision to ax the flights.
A previous outage in August 2023 cost airlines 100 million pounds ($134 million) and caused travel chaos.
Airlines and airports were aghast at the latest problem to afflict air traffic control over the U.K.
Ryanair, Europe’s biggest airline, said 25,000 of its passengers were facing delays as a result of Monday’s issue and repeated its calls for Rolfe to resign.
“Martin Rolfe has presided over repeated system failures, repeated passenger disruption and repeated failures to deliver an effective back-up system,” its chief operations officer Neal McMahon said. “Enough is enough. Martin Rolfe should resign today.”
Rival airline easyJet had to cancel some flights, saying the latest disruption “once again calls into question the resilience of NATS’ systems and demonstrates the need for firm actions to prevent these repeated failures.”
And British Airways said it is “disappointing” that some customers may experience disruption after “yet another technical fault” involving NATS.
The U.K. government owns 49% of NATS, making it the largest shareholder and giving it a veto over key decisions. Airlines, airports, investors and employees own the remaining shares in the public-private partnership.
“I know this will be deeply frustrating for passengers after the previous issue,” Transport Secretary Heidi Alexander said.
A lot has changed in the four months since the leaders of the two global superpowers last met: Xi Jinping has overseen a surge in China’s trade, while Donald Trump has struggled with falling approval ratings at home.
That shift in fortunes has tempered expectations for their summit in Washington this week, analysts say, with Xi in no rush to make concessions and Trump constrained by a costly war with Iran that has hurt both his popularity and Americans’ wallets.
While thorny issues like Taiwan may surface, the main focus of the Sept. 24 meeting is whether the leaders will signal an extension to a trade truce struck last year that averted a major shock to the global economy.
“Xi is not really looking for anything tangible. He wants to extend the gentleman’s agreement with Trump so that China has time to fortify itself,” said Jon Czin, a foreign policy expert at the Brookings Institution who formerly served as China director at the U.S. National Security Council.
‘Living in Xi’s world’
White House officials have sought to downplay the potential for major breakthroughs.
U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng helmed preparatory talks in New York Sunday aimed at teeing up some potential agreements on AI guardrails and trade in non-sensitive products.
That is a far cry from Trump’s vow when he returned to office in 2025 to use tariffs to address a trade imbalance with China that was “killing” the United States.
But since agreeing the truce with Xi in October of that year, his attention has been divided among myriad other foreign policy battles, from the wars in Iran and Ukraine to disputes with Europe over free speech.
China has faced its own challenges, such as slowing domestic demand and a protracted property crisis, but the export juggernaut that Trump sought to tame has kept roaring in what economists are increasingly referring to as China Shock 2.0.
China has found new markets and boxed out competition from other industrialized countries. It is exporting more of its goods to the rest of the world, with a $1.2 trillion global trade surplus last year, particularly as its low-priced electric vehicles undercut the auto sectors in Germany, Japan and South Korea.
Its surplus is on pace to top $1 trillion for a second straight year.
While U.S. efforts to curb the cheap parcels that online retailers such as Shein and Temu rely on have worked, more than half of the roughly 6,500 product categories China sold to the U.S. so far this year have grown compared to 2025.
A delegation of Chinese business leaders, potentially including some firms facing U.S. regulatory scrutiny as they seek greater market access, is set to accompany Xi to Washington.
The Trump administration “thought they could use massive unilateral pressure to force China to make concessions, and that did not occur,” said Scott Kennedy, an expert on the U.S.-China economic relationship at Washington-based think tank CSIS.
“Now this is Xi Jinping’s world, and we’re all living in it.”
Taiwan and trade wins
If Xi is in the driver’s seat as analysts suggest, that will further unnerve U.S. allies in Asia who expect the Chinese leader to push Trump to soften Washington’s support for Taiwan.
Xi repeatedly asked him about Taiwan when they met in Beijing in May, including about arms sales and Washington’s resolve to defend the island, Trump told reporters.
The U.S. president described a pending $14 billion arms package for Taiwan as a “negotiating chip” with Beijing.
Some officials in Taipei and Tokyo worry he may be tempted to cash in that chip for political wins ahead of November’s midterm elections, which could prove challenging for his Republican Party.
That could include Chinese purchases of Boeing jets or farm goods, or commitments to curb the flow of fentanyl precursor chemicals that have fueled the U.S. opioid crisis.
“China-U.S. ties have become more transactional,” said Wu Xinbo, a professor at Shanghai’s Fudan University who advises China’s Foreign Ministry.
While Washington may want to prioritize trade talks, for Beijing, the U.S. approach to Taiwan could be key, he said.
“If you accommodate our concern on the Taiwan issue, then we would be willing to accommodate your concerns on other issues, be it law enforcement or on purchases of U.S. agricultural products,” Wu said.
Putting pressure on Iran
Washington also sees Xi as uniquely able to exert pressure on Iran to bring an end to the war that has dragged Trump’s approval rating to the lowest of his political career.
However, Xi has shown little inclination to do so. Beijing is reportedly selling billions of dollars’ worth of goods to Iran through a sanctions-evasion scheme. China’s Foreign Ministry says it is not aware of such a scheme.
U.S. threats last month of secondary sanctions on countries doing business with Iran – which Bessent called an “Economic D-Day” – appear not to have yet been wielded against Tehran’s largest trading partner.
That is more evidence, analysts say, that Trump is eager to keep relations with Xi steady as he focuses his energies elsewhere – an arrangement that also suits the Chinese leader.
“Both Xi and Trump feel it’s quite helpful to have stability in the relationship so that they can focus on more pressing things,” said Ruby Osman, senior geopolitical researcher at the Tony Blair Institute for Global Change.
“For Trump, that is Iran. For Xi, that is building out China’s domestic resilience for whatever comes after Trump.”
U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng were expected to meet on Sunday to try to prepare ground for potential agreements on artificial intelligence, tariffs and critical minerals for a high-stakes Washington summit this week between U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping.
The meetings at JPMorgan Chase’s headquarters in Manhattan, which will also include U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer, were due to start at about 10:30 a.m. (2.30 p.m. GMT) and are expected to run all day.
Reuters reported that the Chinese vice premier arrived in New York with visuals also showing him entering the banking giant’s headquarters.
Key topics will be the status of a U.S.-China trade truce that is set to expire on Nov. 10, flows of Chinese rare-earth magnets and critical minerals that U.S. officials say are insufficient, and potential guardrails for artificial intelligence after reports of key security breaches involving AI models.
The most likely outcome, analysts say, would be for Washington and Beijing to agree on small steps to show they are continuing to avoid escalating tensions in a delicate trade relationship that has major consequences for the global economy.
“I think there will be some show of deliverables because of the fact that it’s a presidential summit coming, but I don’t feel like we’re on the verge of some sort of breakthrough,” said Anna Ashton, a longtime China trade analyst and founder of Ashton Intelligence.
“I think the status quo is probably both sides’ general best expectation.”
Many of the issues that He, Bessent and Greer will have to work through for Trump and Xi are holdovers from the two leaders’ meeting in Beijing in May, including an effort on both sides to cut tariffs on non-strategic goods and Chinese pledges to increase purchases of U.S. agricultural goods by $17 billion a year and to purchase more than 200 Boeing aircraft.
The Bessent-He-Greer meeting follows a pattern set over the past 16 months, in which the three officials met in European and Asian cities to tee up potential agreements for Trump and Xi.
These efforts included the November 2025 truce reached in Busan, South Korea, which capped U.S. tariffs imposed during Trump’s second term in office at about 20% on Chinese goods after tit-for-tat escalation had brought them to triple-digit levels on both sides.
The U.S. Supreme Court later struck down the Trump tariffs that were invoked under a national emergencies law, including duties related to fentanyl trafficking.
Trump’s administration has been rebuilding them under new authorities, including restoring a 12.5% tariff on Chinese goods over forced labor allegations. It is finalizing a separate tariff investigation aimed at curbing excess industrial capacity that it says is rampant in China.
Under that truce, China promised to restore the flow of critical minerals to the U.S. and global users. However, a senior U.S. official told reporters on Friday that China’s performance on that front “has not been up to par” and would be a topic for discussion ahead of the Trump-Xi summit.
New talks on AI
The Bessent-He discussions on AI are significant because the U.S. and China are the two major forces driving the development of advanced AI tools and the global adoption of the technology.
Rare earths play a crucial role in the manufacturing of advanced semiconductor technology powering AI.
Bessent said on Friday he expects the discussions to cover “both open- and closed-weight models.” Open-weight models are AI systems with publicly accessible core elements, where users can download and fine-tune them for specific tasks.
Chinese open-weight models are becoming more popular with U.S. companies because they can be cheaper than closed-weight AI tools such as those developed by Anthropic, OpenAI and other U.S. companies.
“The United States remains the leader in AI. And we are open to discussions on avoiding shared risks and avoiding bifurcation of our two systems,” Bessent said in a statement regarding the China talks.
Bessent has called for the U.S. and China to agree on AI “guardrails,” aimed at keeping powerful models out of the hands of malign non-state actors.
Tariff reductions, investment
The U.S. and China also agreed in May to launch discussions to reduce tariffs for non-strategic goods under a so-called “Board of Trade” mechanism along with a similar forum to deal with specific investment issues.
While the Trump administration has tightened restrictions on U.S. companies investing in some industries in China, Reuters reported on Friday that it is working on rules that would likely allow U.S. pharmaceutical firms to invest in promising Chinese drugs and strike licensing deals for them.
China’s Ministry of Commerce said on Saturday that He would also lead a delegation of Chinese companies to the U.S. that would participate in economic and trade consultations ahead of the summit.
The business delegation, which mirrors a group of U.S. CEOs that Trump brought to Beijing in May, was announced as Trump expressed openness to Chinese automakers building factories in the U.S.
U.S. auto industry groups on Friday urged Trump to maintain an effective ban on Chinese vehicle sales in the U.S. on national security grounds.
Few states may be better positioned to tax billionaires than California. The state is politically left-leaning, faces significant health care funding needs and is home to as many as 250 billionaires whose combined wealth exceeds $2 trillion.
But the Nov. 3 ballot initiative Proposition 40, which asks Californians whether to impose a one-time 5% tax on the state’s billionaires, is far from certain to pass, political analysts say, amid a debate that has raised questions about income inequality and the state’s future business prospects.
Whether and how to tax the ultrawealthy are questions that extend well beyond the Hollywood Hills and Silicon Valley.
New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani, a Democrat and democratic socialist, filmed a video in front of billionaire investor Ken Griffin’s penthouse as part of an ultimately successful campaign to tax high-end second homes in the city. Even a majority of Republicans see billionaires as creating unfairness and contributing to economic woes, one 2025 poll showed.
A Reuters/Ipsos poll in August found 64% of independent registered voters in the six-day nationwide poll said they support increasing taxes on corporations and billionaires, compared to 15% who oppose the idea.
“Billionaires are no longer very popular,” said University of California, Berkeley economics professor Emmanuel Saez, a researcher of wealth inequality who helped write Proposition 40. They have “enormous wealth, enormous power.”
Saez describes the proposal as very simply “a tax on billionaires to fund health care.”
California has more billionaires than any other state, according to a Forbes estimate last year, and is home to some of the country’s most valuable companies, including tech giants Google, Apple, Meta and Nvidia .
Polls show it ahead – for now
A UC Berkeley IGS Poll in August found 48% of likely voters supported Proposition 40, with 41% opposed, while a September Public Policy Institute of California poll showed it leading 52% to 46%.
California ballot measures typically need robust early support to survive Election Day. Undecided voters are more apt to vote “no” when the time comes, political analysts say, and opponents have yet to crank up their advertising campaign.
“California ballot measures tend to lose support over time, and if it’s polling below 50% in August, that’s not a good sign for its prospects,” said John Pitney, a professor of politics at Claremont McKenna College.
Backers say California’s measure would generate $100 billion for health care, food assistance and education. But skeptics peg the revenue estimate at closer to $40 billion and say it could also drive some billionaires out of state, depriving California of future tax revenue and investment.
Opposition has been bolstered by billionaires such as Sergey Brin, the Google co-founder who has spent more than $100 million to defeat Proposition 40 and support countermeasures on the same ballot that would effectively void it.
“I fled socialism with my family in 1979 and know the devastating, oppressive society it created in the Soviet Union. I don’t want California to end up in the same place,” Brin, 53, whose family left the Soviet Union when he was a child, told the New York Times.
Gov. Gavin Newsom, a Democrat widely believed to be running for president in 2028, also opposes Proposition 40, instead advocating for a nationwide federal wealth tax.
Colorful initiative history
California ballot initiatives draw unusual attention because the state combines a powerful direct-democracy system with the nation’s largest state economy and population. The process allows citizens to propose laws, though most initiatives are drafted by interest groups or lawyers.
Proposition 13 in 1978, which capped and rolled back property taxes, became a national symbol of a tax revolt that shaped U.S. politics.
But California voters have only approved one in three citizen initiatives historically.
In 2022, another California ballot measure aimed at increasing taxes on top earners, Proposition 30, lost 58% to 42%, even though Democrats outnumber Republicans nearly two to one.
“Sixty percent of Californians now reliably vote Democratic for statewide races, but that doesn’t mean that they’re really liberal on taxing, spending, or even many social issues,” said Thad Kousser, a professor of political science at UC San Diego.
European countries including France, Sweden, Finland, Denmark and Germany repealed wealth taxes between 1997 and 2018 amid concerns about capital flight, avoidance and economic competitiveness. The California proposition is retroactive to Jan. 1, limiting billionaires’ ability to escape the tax by moving.
Saez said the tax was unlikely to prompt many billionaires or the tech startups that are making people wealthy to move, because of the quality of California’s universities, research, infrastructure and talent.
“It’s just absurd to think that Silicon Valley is going to come to a standstill because of a billionaire wealth tax,” he said.
The U.S. emerged as the second-top destination for Turkish exports in the first eight months of the year, with shipments surging close to 13% compared to the same period a year earlier, according to a report on Sunday.
Türkiye’s exports to the U.S. increased by 12.9% year-over-year in the January-August period, reaching approximately $9.64 billion (TL 470.11 billion), the report by Anadolu Agency (AA) indicated. The U.S. thus became the second-largest destination for Turkish exports.
The country’s total exports increased by 4% on a yearly basis in the January-August period, rising from $177.9 billion to $185 billion, according to data compiled from Türkiye Exporters Assembly (TIM).
During the same period, Germany ranked first among Türkiye’s top export destinations, with exports totaling $13.58 billion.
When looking at trade with the U.S., exports surged from some $8.54 billion during the same period last year to $9.64 billion this January-August, approaching the $10 billion mark.
In Türkiye’s exports to the United States during the first eight months of the year, the chemicals and chemical products and electrical and electronics sectors stood out, while exports by the steel sector in August increased by a staggering 404.6% versus the same month last year.
According to sectoral export data for the U.S., exports of chemicals and chemical products increased by 33.7% during the January-August period compared with the same period last year, climbing from $780.3 million to slightly over $1 billion.
Automotive exports reached $841.2 million
Exports from the electrical and electronics sector to the U.S. also increased by 41.8% during this period, rising from $702.8 million to $996.4 million.
Meanwhile, the automotive industry was also among the sectors that exported the most to the United States. Its exports increased by 3.5% during the first eight months of the year, reaching $841.2 million.
During the same period, exports of cereals, pulses, oilseeds and related products increased by 4.7% to $596.9 million, while exports of ready-to-wear clothing and apparel rose by 6.5% to $594.8 million.
Similarly, sales of machinery and equipment also posted a yearly increase of about 27.2% to $530.8 million, while carpet exports rose by 5.2% to $486.7 million.
Istanbul’s exports to U.S. up by 9.1%
Looking at exports by province, Istanbul recorded the highest level of exports to the United States during the January-August period, totaling $3.42 billion. Istanbul’s exports to the U.S. increased by 9.1% compared with the same period last year.
Istanbul was followed by the capital, Ankara, with $976.5 million, the western province of Izmir with $819.7 million, Gaziantep in the south with $816.4 million, and the northwestern province of Kocaeli with exports totalling some $700.3 million.
Ankara’s exports to the United States increased by 53.5%, Gaziantep’s by 16.8%, Kocaeli’s by 13.6% and Izmir’s by 11.3%, respectively.
Exports from Bursa also increased by 25.7% during the same period, reaching $566.8 million, while exports from Eskişehir rose by 25.5% to $436.4 million.
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