Economy
Gold’s surge set to continue in H2, driven up by central banks
The seemingly unstoppable rise in prices of gold, considered a safe haven in times of turmoil, is expected to continue into the second half of the year, according to traders and financial analysts.
In its latest outlook, the World Gold Council (WGC) predicts that prices will keep climbing, albeit at a slightly slower pace.
Gold has become so expensive that demand from the jewelry sector has slumped. Global consumption by jewelry manufacturers dropped from 435 tons in the first quarter to 356 tons in the second, the WGC reported earlier this week.
Meanwhile, the price of gold has soared to just over $3,300 per troy ounce (31.1 grams), nearly double the level seen in 2022.
Goldman Sachs forecasts it could reach $4,000 by mid-2026.
Analysts point to sustained buying by central banks – especially China’s – as a key driver of this rally, as nations seek to reduce their reliance on the U.S. dollar.
“As long as central banks continue to build up gold reserves, prices will keep moving north,” says Michael Eubel, head of precious metals trading at BayernLB, one of Germany’s leading gold dealers.
“Central banks have been buying around 1,000 tons of gold annually in recent years,” adds Benjamin Summa, a spokesperson for Munich-based gold trader Pro Aurum. “A significant share of that is likely attributable to China.”
Figures from the World Gold Council show that China has increased its gold reserves nearly sixfold since 2000, from 395 tons to 2,292 tons as of the end of the first quarter of 2025. That puts it in seventh place globally. But many experts believe Beijing’s actual holdings are far higher.
“I estimate that China has acquired at least another 500 tons via secondary markets,” says Eubel. China is also the world’s largest gold producer, and “very little of that output is exported,” he adds.
It’s no secret that China’s Communist Party would prefer to end U.S. dominance sooner rather than later. A key component of great-power status is holding significant gold reserves. But China is by no means the only country buying gold.
“These states are aiming to reduce their dependence on the U.S. dollar and are therefore increasingly turning to physical gold,” said Summa. Among them are India, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Qatar.
This year, however, the most active buyer isn’t China, but Poland, which has purchased more than 48 tons so far in 2025, according to the WGC – putting it at the top of the list. For many years, Russia was the largest official gold buyer, but it has scaled back purchases since 2020, according to official data.
Türkiye foresees spending amounting to over TL 1 trillion ($20.2 billion) next year on transportation and logistics, according to a report on Sunday.
The spending would be covering different areas including railway transportation, road transportation, information and communications, maritime transportation, combined transport, logistics, and the transportation of dangerous goods.
Technological advances are bringing rapid changes to the transportation sector. To keep pace with these developments, various amounts of funding would be allocated to transportation programs next year, according to information compiled by Anadolu Agency (AA) from the government’s 2027 central budget proposal.
Under this plan, railway transportation is projected to receive the largest share of the transportation budget, amounting to TL 514.9 billion. The budget for this category, which stood at approximately TL 377.2 billion this year, has thus been increased by around 36.5% for 2027.
Road transportation ranks second. Its budget, which was set at TL 365.15 billion would increase by about 32.1% to reach TL 482.45 billion next year.
The budget for information and communications is also seen rising by nearly 39%, from approximately TL 23.3 billion to TL 32.33 billion.
The budget for maritime transportation, which amounted to approximately TL 7 billion would jump by 166% next year to over TL 18 billion.
Meanwhile, the budget for combined transport, logistics, and the transportation of dangerous goods will increase by 21.3% compared with this year to TL 7.3 billion.
As a result, the total budget allocated to transportation programs, which stood at nearly TL 778.5 billion this year is expected to hit over TL 1 trillion, representing an increase of 35.54%.
Transport and Infrastructure Minister Abdulkadir Uraloğlu said that key priorities for transportation investment include making more efficient use of existing infrastructure, increasing railway capacity, developing port and logistics infrastructure, and integrating different modes of transportation.
“A budget of more than TL 1 trillion has been allocated for investments across all modes of transportation next year. Railways have received the largest allocation,” Uraloğlu was quoted as saying.
“We will further expand our railway investments to weave our country together with railway networks,” he added.
He also pointed out that investments have not been limited to railways.
“We have invested in many areas, from roads and railways to aviation and maritime transport. Through its major investments and infrastructure projects in transportation, Türkiye has undergone a significant transformation. Türkiye is a country that has made a major leap forward in transportation,” he noted.
Uraloğlu also stated that, in 2027, investments in road, rail, and air transportation, as well as maritime transport and communications, would continue without interruption, supported by the budget allocated to these sectors.
“As a ministry, our share of investment funding from the national budget in 2026 is approximately TL 525 billion. The total value of the projects we have inaugurated and will inaugurate this year will exceed TL 605 billion,” he added.
He concluded by mentioning that there are “many projects that will be opened to the public before the end of the year.”
Vietnam and four European nations outside the EU bloc inked a free trade agreement (FTA) in Hanoi on Sunday, seeking to diversify their markets and strengthen cooperation as U.S. tariff pressures and tensions continue to disrupt global commerce.
The deal, between Southeast Asia’s fastest-growing economy and the European Free Trade Association (EFTA), which includes Iceland, Liechtenstein, Norway and Switzerland, eliminates or reduces customs duties, including on imports of industrial, fish and agricultural products.
The deal was signed in the capital in the presence of Vietnam’s top leader To Lam and representatives of EFTA governments.
Vietnam said the agreement showed the parties’ resolve to “reinforce the rules-based trading system amid continued volatility in the global economy,” according to a government statement.
It was also expected to help Vietnam “diversify its import and export markets” and “integrate more deeply into global value chains,” the government said.
Vietnam and EFTA concluded negotiations in July, more than a decade after the free trade talks officially began in 2012.
The parties relaunched negotiations in September last year, after they had stalled since 2018.
The agreement followed a global trade-disrupting tariff blitz by the U.S. under President Donald Trump, which has left Vietnam with a hefty tax on its U.S. exports amid ongoing negotiations with Washington.
Experts say the new deal reflected a shared initiative to diversify commercial ties and reduce reliance on major trading partners.
“As the U.S. increasingly exerts trade pressure on European countries, the agreement is a joint effort to turn economic integration into greater strategic autonomy and to develop alternative commercial relationships rather than relying exclusively on their largest partners,” history and politics scholar Do Dinh Lam Khang told Agence France-Presse (AFP).
For Vietnam, closer ties with EFTA economies could support its ambition to move into higher-value-added activities, Khang added.
The agreement covers trade in goods and services, intellectual property rights, trade remedies and sustainable development, among other areas, both parties say.
Bilateral trade between the EFTA and Vietnam last year was valued at 4.8 billion euros ($5.4 billion), according to the association.
Electrical and mechanical machinery, fish and pharmaceutical products were the EFTA nations’ top exports to Vietnam last year.
Machinery, footwear and apparel were manufacturing hub Vietnam’s major exports to the EFTA.
The association was created as a counterpart to the European Economic Community (EEC), precursor of the European Union, which its four member states are close to, but have not joined.
Elon Musk is back in the spotlight once again with a car that flips through the air, but his consistent dive into politics and renewed alignment with U.S. President Donald Trump make him a more divisive figure than in the years past.
“All the things that we were promised since the 1950s, of space travel and flying cars … he’s doing all of those things,” said Andrew Selepak, a social media professor at the University of Florida.
“And yet we’re not giving it the attention, we’re not giving it the awe that it probably truly deserves,” he added.
In recent weeks, Musk has seemed to be everywhere at once.
On Sept. 28, SpaceX’s Starship megarocket reached orbit for the first time and deployed 26 Starlink satellites before splashing down in the Pacific, a milestone for the rocket central to Musk’s Mars ambitions.
Musk’s central role in geopolitics has also been on display, with Ukraine complaining of disruptions to the Starshield satellite communications system its military relies on.
Even the platform formerly known as Twitter is enjoying something of a renaissance, with Musk’s X now the go-to social media app for Silicon Valley insiders and the main marketplace for talk about artificial intelligence.
But despite his continued success, Musk’s unrelenting commitment to right-wing politics has taken a toll.
No image captured that shift more than Musk brandishing a chainsaw on stage in February 2025 – a gift from Argentine President Javier Milei – as a symbol of his drive to slash the U.S. government as head of the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) in the early months of Trump’s second term.
Through DOGE, Musk’s allies fanned out across federal agencies, driving cuts that effectively dismantled the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) and contributed to a net loss of hundreds of thousands of jobs.
‘National treasure’
That combative imagery has been matched by Musk’s posts on X, where hardline anti-immigration views and right-wing conspiracy theories sit alongside posts about rocket launches and Tesla robotaxis.
Now Musk is back in Trump’s good graces, after a spectacular falling-out that followed his exit from DOGE in May 2025.
Last week, Trump presented Musk with the nation’s top science medal, calling him a “national treasure” and “our modern-day Thomas Edison.”
The renewed relationship comes as Musk has spent at least $276 million on Republican political campaigns ahead of next month’s midterm elections, in which the president’s party is expected to struggle.
Of that, $158 million is funding a massive advertising campaign in Texas, Musk’s home state, where the Republican candidate is trailing in the polls.
For left-leaning pundits, Musk is now increasingly seen as an agent of Trump and the tech billionaires rather than a technology savant working for the good of humanity.
That opposition plays out in “Musk,” a four-hour documentary by Oscar-winning filmmaker Alex Gibney now in U.S. theaters, which traces the life and career of the South Africa-born billionaire.
“I once described him as somebody who can jump off the edge of a cliff and invent a parachute on the way down. I think he thrives on chaos,” Musk’s first wife, Justine Musk, who features prominently in the film, told podcaster Kara Swisher.
Yet, she added, “I always assume that there’s a method to his madness,” and many of his loudest actions may in fact be deflections and “sleight of hand.”
The same may be true of Musk’s dealings with Washington.
Few entrepreneurs depend as heavily on the federal government as Musk does.
SpaceX – which went public in June in the largest initial public offering (IPO) in history – earns billions of dollars a year from NASA and Pentagon contracts, while Tesla’s bet on robotaxis hinges on how quickly regulators allow driverless cars onto U.S. roads.
Seen in that light, Musk’s millions for Republicans may be less a political conversion than an investment.
Artificial intelligence is widely seen as one of the key drivers of global growth in recent years, but it also poses economic risks should investment in the technology decline, experts and policymakers said at the IMF-World Bank annual meetings in Bangkok.
Propelled by spending on data centers and microchips, AI has helped cushion the economic shock of rising global energy prices caused by war in the Middle East, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) said in a report on Tuesday.
The fund’s chief economist, Silvana Tenreyro, noted that global trade rose 8.3% between 2023 and 2025, a figure she said would be closer to 4.6% without AI-related products.
‘Everywhere’ in economy
“It is everywhere in the global economy,” Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem said of AI on Friday.
“You see it in GDP. You see it in the stock market. You see it in the bond market … So it is here, and it’s just the beginning.”
But some top officials gathered in Bangkok cautioned against relying too heavily on AI investment.
Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Kevin Warsh called AI the “most consequential change” to the global economy in his lifetime, and said it had “a huge benefit.” Still, he warned the road ahead would be “bumpy.”
“The path from where we are to there is likely to be a very bumpy one, bumpy in our understanding of the technology, bumpy because we really don’t know what the market structure is going to be of these new technologies,” he said.
IMF chief Kristalina Georgieva similarly noted the AI boom’s boost to global growth, but she also said that any slowdown in the industry “would be felt across the world.”
“If there is loss of confidence and money runs away from AI, that can lead to financial stability risks,” Georgieva said.
An IMF report released this week projected that a decline in AI investment could reduce global GDP by 0.4% by 2028.
“Weaker or less durable AI investments and profitability could be a shock that triggers a market correction,” the report said.
War and regulation
While AI investment and trade have softened the global economic impact of the Middle East war, economists at Moody’s Analytics have warned that if the conflict drags on, it could “puncture” the boom.
They said higher energy prices and tighter financial conditions could push up operating costs and interest rates, adding to doubts over “the long-term profitability and viability of AI business models.”
“A drawn-out conflict would put serious strain on the economics behind AI investment,” the group said.
The uncertainty around regulation has also clouded the technology’s outlook.
Leaders like U.S. President Donald Trump have urged more limited government regulation, even as some in the industry have called for legislation to mitigate risks.
Georgieva, the IMF chief, appeared on Friday to link such regulation to future investment.
“If there are no safeguards, then the risks may exceed the opportunities,” she said in Bangkok.
Rising gas prices have pushed inflation up, vacuuming up more of Americans’ dollars, yet consumers are still proving resilient in spending and powering the economy, at least for now.
A slew of economic data last week showed that inflation accelerated last month as more expensive oil and gas began to lift prices in other parts of the economy, including shipping and warehousing, before the increases reach most Americans.
Wholesale food prices also jumped, which could make groceries more expensive in the months ahead.
At the same time, consumers also ramped up their spending, according to data released on Thursday. Although much of the increase reflected higher prices, consumer resilience is powering solid U.S. economic growth.
Workers are enjoying an unusual degree of job security despite scattered layoffs, which likely encourages spending despite surveys showing that many Americans have a gloomy economic outlook.
It all adds up to an economy in which people are spending money but don’t feel good about it.
“Consumers may have gritted their teeth and looked through higher gas prices,” said Jim Baird, chief investment officer at Plante Moran Financial Advisors. “They’re not happy, but they’re still spending.”
A report Thursday on wholesale prices helps explain the gloom: The government’s producer price index (PPI), which measures costs before they reach the consumers, jumped 6.3% in September from a year earlier, the biggest increase in nearly four years.
On a monthly basis, prices soared 1.3% from August to September, powered by a 20% rise in gas prices.
Higher diesel prices have made shipping more expensive because long-haul trucks and freight trains rely on the fuel. Higher transportation costs may have helped push up food costs, which rose 1.2% from August to September, the biggest monthly gain since February.
The wholesale price report followed the latest consumer price figures, released Wednesday, which showed inflation rising to 3.7% in September, far above the 2% target set by the Federal Reserve (Fed).
“The jolt to transportation prices affects every good in the economy, since inputs to manufacturing move to factories and goods at all stages of production move from producer to wholesaler to retailer by truck, train or rail,” wrote Carl Weinberg, chief economist at High Frequency Economics.
“This is how increases in energy prices ‘bleed through’ to prices of core goods.”
Farmers also rely on diesel to power most of their equipment, which could further push up food prices. Diesel prices averaged $6.32 a gallon nationwide Thursday, according to AAA, up from just $3.66 a year ago.
Despite those cost pressures, retail sales rose a solid 0.8% from August, more than economists had forecast. The increase was driven by a 6.4% jump in spending at gas stations, but consumers also spent elsewhere, including a healthy 1.1% rise at restaurants and bars.
Excluding gas, retail sales rose just 0.2% last month, with much of that also reflecting higher prices.
Economists say that as long as unemployment stays low and Americans continue working, spending will likely stay resilient. Hiring has been sluggish, but layoffs are also unusually low.
Another report Thursday showed that the number of people seeking unemployment benefits stayed below 200,000 last week, a historically low figure. Applications for unemployment aid are a proxy for layoffs.
“If the unemployment rate remains low, meaning consumers have a job, they will continue to spend, even if more cautiously and leaning increasingly on savings and credit,” Kathy Bostjancic, chief economist at Nationwide, said in an email.
Many economists worry, however, that as inflation stays high, it will steadily erode Americans’ spending power and start to weigh on the economy. Weekly paychecks, adjusted for inflation, actually declined in September compared with a year ago for the first time since May.
And September hiring slowed to a disappointing 29,000 jobs from a revised 133,000 in August, according to the Labor Department early this month. The unemployment rate ticked higher to 4.2% from the previous month, which is still low. Yet economists had expected September payrolls to come in around 90,000.
Stubbornly elevated inflation also means the Federal Reserve will likely raise its key interest rate in the coming months in an effort to slow spending and bring down inflation. When the Fed raises its rate, that can raise borrowing costs for mortgages, car loans, and credit cards over time.
According to minutes released from the most recent meeting, most Fed officials expect that another interest rate increase will likely be needed this year to combat inflation.
The Fed increased its key interest rate by a quarter-point to about 3.9% in September, its first increase in three years.
The increase defied U.S. President Donald Trump’s repeated calls for the Fed to cut rates and prompted the president to criticize the Fed’s rate-setting committee, although he still expressed support for Chair Kevin Warsh, whom he appointed earlier this year.
U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio announced on Saturday that President Donald Trump would take more time to make a decision after waiving sanctions and tariffs related to Russian exports, and the president also said he has yet to share his final decision.
Rubio said on Saturday that the president will use up to 60 days to assess the economic impact of Russia-related sanctions and tariffs that he waived a day earlier.
“A lot of you don’t know what my decision is yet, but we’ll figure it out, and you’ll figure it out,” Trump told reporters at his Mar-a-Lago club in Palm Beach, Florida.
The waiver comes just weeks before November’s midterm elections, with Trump under pressure over high energy prices as war with Iran disrupts global oil supplies.
Trump signed an executive order on Friday waiving key sanctions and tariffs under the law known as the Graham Act, which he signed last month at the urging of lawmakers who want to pressure Moscow over its war in Ukraine.
The measures, including tariffs on Russian goods and penalties on countries buying Russian oil and gas, were due to take effect next week. Friday’s order did not specify how long the waiver would last, but Rubio said Trump opted for a 60-day review.
“I think the president wants to take the 60-day period of time to sort of analyze what imposing both sanctions and tariffs will mean to the global economy and even to the U.S. economy,” Rubio told reporters before boarding a plane for a trip to Uzbekistan.
Complicating matters is the Graham Act’s call not only for sanctions on Russia but also for tariffs on goods from countries that import Russian energy supplies. Rubio pointed to India, an important U.S. partner that has diversified its energy supplies but remains heavily dependent on Russian oil.
Friday’s executive order drew criticism from Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, who warned it would embolden Russian President Vladimir Putin and prolong the war.
Senator Darline Graham, a South Carolina Republican whose late brother Lindsey Graham championed the legislation that bears his name, said she disagreed with Trump’s decision and planned to discuss it with him when he campaigns for her next week.
“Personally, I would choose to keep the pressure on Russia,” she told reporters on Saturday. “Because I don’t trust Putin and I don’t trust Russia.”
Diesel supplies
Rubio also defended a separate U.S. agreement with Russia to increase diesel supplies to global markets, aimed at easing fuel prices that have climbed amid the war with Iran and disruptions to energy supplies.
Under the agreement, Trump said Russia initially would supply more than 300,000 metric tons of diesel to the U.S., followed by shipments in November and beyond.
“That diesel is going to be sold one way or the other,” Rubio said. “The only difference is how much of it the United States was going to get.”
Rubio said the diesel deal and sanctions waiver reflected the challenge of managing conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine that have disrupted global energy supplies.
“These conflicts around the world are starting to crash into each other,” he said.
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