Economy
Takaichi win reduces chance of early BOJ rate hike: Analysts
With Sanae Takaichi poised to become Japan’s next prime minister and pushing for expansionist economic policies, the likelihood has increased that the central bank will hold off on raising interest rates this month – although that pause might be short-lived if the yen takes a hit.
Takaichi, likely to become Japan’s first female leader next week after winning the presidency of the ruling party on Saturday, stood out in the race as the only proponent of big spending and loose monetary policy.
Parliament is expected to vote the conservative nationalist in as premier on Oct. 15 since her Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) is the largest in Parliament, although this is not assured as the LDP’s coalition lost its majorities in both houses under her predecessor, Shigeru Ishiba.
Complicating BOJ rate hikes
Upon winning the race, Takaichi made it clear that the government would take the lead in setting fiscal and monetary policy and that her priority would be to reflate demand and the broader economy.
Describing recent price rises as driven by higher raw material costs, Takaichi warned that it was premature to declare victory over deflation as companies start to feel the pain from President Donald Trump’s U.S. tariffs.
“What would be best would be to achieve demand-driven inflation, where wages would rise and drive up demand, which in turn causes moderate price rises that boost corporate profits,” she told a news conference after her victory.
Her ascension makes it more likely the Bank of Japan (BOJ) will refrain from raising rates on Oct. 30, analysts say.
“Takaichi is not seen as supportive of interest rate hikes, which could make it more difficult for the BOJ to proceed with tightening,” said Kazutaka Maeda, an economist at Meiji Yasuda Research Institute.
“While rate hikes may not be ruled out entirely, the central bank could adopt a more cautious and gradual approach,” he said, adding the subsequent increase may be delayed until early next year.
Some analysts, however, doubt whether Takaichi will push back too hard against the BOJ’s plan for slow, moderate tightening as inflation – rather than Japan’s long-time curse of deflation – is now the bigger economic problem, costing Ishiba’s LDP a huge election loss in July.
The BOJ ended decades of massive stimulus last year, raising its policy rate to 0.5% in January on the view that Japan was on the cusp of durably achieving its 2% inflation target.
Before Takaichi’s victory, markets were pricing in more than a 60% probability of a rate hike this month, with inflation above target for more than three years, a hawkish board split at the September policy meeting and calls for a near-term rate hike by a dovish policymaker.
But Governor Kazuo Ueda kept markets guessing last week, warning of global uncertainties that could discourage firms from raising wages.
“Ueda appeared to be in no rush to hike interest rates anyway. Takaichi’s win will make it even more likely the BOJ will take a wait-and-see mode and hold off raising rates in October,” said Mari Iwashita, executive rates strategist at Nomura Securities.
At the same time, former central bank official Nobuyasu Atago said, “The BOJ faces a new challenge of creating a channel of trust and communication with Takaichi’s administration, which might take some time.”
‘Things have changed’
Takaichi has been a vocal advocate of “Abenomics,” a hefty mix of government spending and monetary stimulus deployed by her mentor, then-Premier Shinzo Abe, to pull Japan out of deflation and ease the pain of a surging yen on the export-reliant economy.
Although she has toned down comments such as calling last year’s rate hike “stupid,” Takaichi has retained ties with reflationist-minded lawmakers and economists who advise her on policy.
Her stance contrasts with that of Ishiba and his predecessor Fumio Kishida, who nodded to the BOJ’s efforts to roll back stimulus as accelerating food inflation – partly caused by higher import costs from a weak yen – hit households.
With markets fully pricing in another rate increase by early next year, delaying a hike for too long could unleash sharp yen falls that would boost import prices, exacerbating inflation.
Some investors expect Takaichi’s win to push the dollar, now around 147 yen, above 150 yen – a level of yen weakness that drew verbal warnings from Japanese authorities in the past.
“Given her reflationist streak, there’s a chance Takaichi could meddle in monetary policy,” said former BOJ board member Takahide Kiuchi, who expects no rate hike this month. “But I don’t think her administration would force the BOJ to overhaul its rate-hike plans altogether, unless the U.S. economy weakens significantly.”
Diplomatic considerations could also affect Takaichi’s stance on monetary policy, some analysts say.
The Trump administration, which favors a weaker dollar to boost U.S. exports, has signaled displeasure over the yen’s weakness, with U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent saying in August that the BOJ was “behind the curve” in tackling inflation.
Trump is expected to visit Japan this month, with some media reporting that he could arrive days before the BOJ’s Oct. 29 to Oct. 30 meeting.
“In the past, the yen was strong, so low interest rates were acceptable. Now that higher inflation is causing difficulties, it’s probably harder for Takaichi to criticize monetary policy as much as before,” said Tomohisa Ishikawa, chief economist at Japan Research Institute.
“Things have changed from when Takaichi used to work together with Abe.”
Vice President Cevdet Yılmaz on Monday said 17 of the investment funds ordered liquidated after last month’s crisis were settled last week, and that talks on an ordinary liquidation of Atlas Pörtfoy should be finalized this week.
The scandal erupted in mid-September after several investment funds said they could not meet investor redemption requests during a market sell-off. That prompted authorities to launch a sweeping investigation into suspected price manipulation in a number of thinly traded stocks.
The Capital Markets Board (SPK) suspended trading in 131 investment funds run by seven asset management companies on the TEFAS electronic platform and placed them into liquidation. Nearly half a million investors were affected.
Three of the companies, A1 Capital, Bulls and Pardus, accepted ordinary liquidation terms, and payments to nearly 44,000 investors in their 17 funds were made last Thursday, Yılmaz told Anadolu Agency (AA).
Including a few thousand investors in closed funds at the same three companies, about 46,000 people have entered the ordinary process, he said. “No one has been left a victim” in the three companies, he noted.
The ruling Justice and Development Party (AK Party) submitted draft legislation governing the liquidation of the funds to Parliament on Friday. Yılmaz said if the bill passes, fewer than 100,000 investors would be awaiting payment.
The largest company in the crisis is Tera, he said, followed by Pusula, Hedef and Atlas.
Talks with Atlas’s owners are continuing, and Yılmaz said they could conclude this week. If they do, about 58,000 Atlas investors would be paid under the ordinary liquidation method.
Payouts could be completed this month
The bill before Parliament setting out the rules for extraordinary liquidation was shared Friday after being discussed by the newly created Fund Coordination Board and AK Party’s parliamentary group.
Under the draft, Yılmaz said investors would get back principal of up to TL 1 million (about $20,000), calculated using the “net investment amount.” In broad terms, this reflects the money an investor put into a fund, as opposed to profits, he added.
Anyone paid up to TL 1 million would later have their final rights and obligations calculated and offset against what they received, and the general rule still applies that whatever resources are collected will be shared out in the end.
The bill gives priority to money market funds and small investors, who make up the large majority of those affected, Yılmaz said. If it passes, he said, the number of investors still waiting would fall below 100,000.
Yılmaz said payments could be made within this month once the law is in force, and that all institutions had completed their technical preparations.
No state guarantee, no public money
Officials have repeatedly said no public resources would be used for the liquidations.
Yılmaz said funds, unlike bank deposits, have no state guarantee, and that the Savings Deposit Insurance Fund (TMSF) insurance structure covers banks only.
Investors in hedge funds sign a professional or qualified investor agreement that accepts both gains and losses, he said, and the three largest funds would be liquidated with their own resources.
The SPK has opened 131 accounts at the TMSF, one for each fund, plus a general account for people who traded in shares rather than funds.
Yılmaz said money would come from people who voluntarily return excessive gains and from the sale of assets belonging to companies or individuals who acted unlawfully. He said each fund’s legal situation differs and must be examined one by one.
Returning money does not close the investigations, the vice president said. Legal responsibility remains for unlawful transactions, disruptive market activity and excessive profit-taking.
Judicial, administrative action
Yılmaz said the courts were taking effective action against those who harmed investors.
Many people, he said, were in custody, detained or under investigation, and the owners of the companies were being prosecuted.
He said he did not recall any main suspect having fled abroad. He said significant investigations were underway into people who made excessive profits.
On the administrative side, he said the SPK and the banking regulator BDDK had issued various decisions, and that new rules had increased transparency.
He said the funds with problems had been exposed by the new rules and then placed in “a kind of quarantine” through quick liquidation decisions so that the damage would not spread.
The State Supervisory Council (DDK) has also begun fieldwork with about 15 auditors and inspectors, he said, and will draw on experts from other institutions. The inquiry will reveal both institutional shortcomings and individuals’ responsibility, Yılmaz noted.
Several top energy executives have been dropped from the schedule of a major summit in Riyadh, as Saudi authorities pressed ahead with the event Monday despite deadly attacks on the capital claimed by Yemen’s Iran-aligned Houthis.
The chief executives of ExxonMobil, TotalEnergies, Shell, Chevron and BP had all been expected at the WPC Energy Congress, which began on Sunday, but were no longer on the agenda that conference organizers released early Monday.
“To everyone who traveled to Riyadh, thank you,” said Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman, who opened Monday’s session of the gathering for energy policy and industry.
“You know this country is safe and that we hold your protection at whole heart…Our gathering here does not mean the risk is gone.”
Prince Abdulaziz said the events of recent weeks were serious and that the kingdom’s response must be “equally serious.”
The strikes are a blow to Vision 2030, Saudi Arabia’s multi-billion-dollar program to diversify the economy away from oil, modernize society and position the kingdom as an investment and tourism hub.
Hosting international events is a priority of the program, which was already facing delays and recalibrations. Prince Abdulaziz said the kingdom must remain focused on the decades ahead and Vision 2030 must continue.
The WPC Energy Congress was originally scheduled for April of this year, but was postponed after the U.S. and Israeli war on Iran began in late February. Saudi Arabia was named host in October 2022, the first time the event, first held in Britain in 1933, has been held in the kingdom.
Chief executives of major energy companies are a regular fixture at WPC Energy events and had been scheduled to speak on stage this week about global oil and gas markets, energy security and the energy transition.
A BP spokesperson said the company had “made every effort to participate” in the conference. “Unfortunately, due to travel disruption, we are unable to be there in person. We greatly value our long-standing partnerships across the region.”
The WPC Energy Congress is taking place this week at a conference center some 10 kilometers (6 miles) from Riyadh’s international airport, which has been attacked four times in the last week.
One person was killed and nearly a dozen hurt in a new attack on the airport on Sunday evening, Saudi authorities reported, a day after a strike claimed by Houthis killed 13 people and wounded more than 300, the deadliest attack in the kingdom in more than a decade.
Upcoming midterm elections in the U.S. stand as a main reason behind the Trump administration’s sudden announcement that Russian diesel would be released immediately to American and global markets, analysts and critics say.
On Friday, U.S. President Donald Trump said he concluded a “highly successful discussion” with Russian President Vladimir Putin and noted it was agreed that Russia would “immediately” supply over 300,000 tons of diesel fuel to the American and global marketplace.
“Another 500,000 Tons during the month of November, and 1,000,000 Tons immediately therafter,” he wrote in a post shared on his Truth Social.
Separately, the U.S. Treasury Department has shared a notice and issued a temporary exemption from sanctions against Russia, permitting the sale, supply, unloading and import of Russian diesel until April 7, 2027.
Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak also announced the immediate lifting of Russia’s ban on diesel exports, according to the state news agency Tass.
Record diesel prices
The prices of diesel reached record highs in the U.S., and many advanced economies, including the U.K., France and Germany, in recent weeks amid the ongoing war between the U.S. and Iran in the Middle East and Ukraine’s attacks on Russian energy infrastructure.
U.S. national average diesel prices reached $6.27 per gallon as of October, according to AAA Fuel Prices.
However, with the midterm elections next month, critics argue that the amount of supply volume shared by Trump is insufficient, also suggesting that Russia is likely unable to produce as much at its refineries impacted by Ukrainian attacks.
Before the reported lift on the ban, Russian authorities had recently extended the ban on exports of diesel untill end of October amid the domestic crunch in supplies – a rare case for the country, which before the invasion of Ukraine was one of the top global energy suppliers.
Can deal ease pressure on prices?
The U.S.-Russia deal, which has led to a rebuke by Ukraine and its European allies, such as Germany, raised a question: could it actually help alleviate the recent cost pressures the customers across Europe and the U.S. have been facing?
Following Trump’s announcement, diesel futures in fact dropped, trading about 4.5% lower at $4.67 per gallon. Data from the NY Harbor chart, displaying costs of futures on Oct. 9, showed that the November price dropped by 4.1% to $4.68.
Still, it is unclear how it would reflect on crude oil prices, with tensions in the Middle East and lately between Saudi Arabia and Houthi rebels also weighing on the outlook.
Diesel is a refined product, and additional shipments do not automatically increase crude production.
WTI price settled Friday at $91.85 per barrel, up 0.39%, while Brent crude closed at $104.72, gaining 0.42%. Both benchmarks finished higher despite the initial reaction to Trump’s announcement.
But since diesel is used in logistics and agriculture and coupled with the recent G-7 decision to release additional emergency stockpiles, any drop in prices would be welcomed by farmers and companies, which have voiced dissatisfaction with the current level of prices.
The U.S.-Russia deal was also criticized by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, after which Trump said the war-torn country needed a new president.
“Allowing Russia to sell petroleum products is an investment in the war, which must be ended, not prolonged,” Zelenskyy wrote on Telegram on Friday evening.
German Education Minister Karin Prien on Sunday also criticized Trump over his call for a new Ukrainian president amid the recent U.S.-Russia diesel agreement.
“For a few liters of diesel. What a moral bankruptcy,” Prien said on X in response to Trump’s remarks.
Trump on Saturday called for Ukraine to “get a new president,” accusing Zelenskyy of repeatedly failing to reach a deal to end the war with Russia.
“I suggest they get a new leader who can make a deal, because he could have made many deals that, for some reason, he never does,” Trump said.
Meanwhile, Germany reaffirmed its commitment to sanctions against Russia on Saturday following the Trump-Putin agreement, according to German media.
The bank accounts of 214 individuals and companies have been frozen as part of the ongoing investigation into funds and asset management companies following the liquidation order by Turkish authorities, with TL 187 billion (about $3.8 billion) in earnings under scrutiny, according to a Sunday report by Sabah newspaper.
As part of an ongoing investigation into investment funds in Istanbul, authorities identified 141 individuals and 73 companies, 214 in total, who reportedly earned more than TL 100 million from three funds, the report suggested.
The Istanbul Chief Public Prosecutor’s Office is said to have sent the list of these individuals and companies to the Savings Deposit Insurance Fund (TMSF), which has begun formally notifying them about the return of their earnings, it added.
Court orders have also imposed travel bans preventing the relevant individuals and company executives from leaving Türkiye.
Moreover, investigators are reportedly tracing where the money went after it was withdrawn from the investment funds.
On Friday, another report said that Turkish prosecutors have identified 214 individuals and companies they say made a combined TL 187.65 billion from three of the investment funds at the center of the country’s fund turmoil.
The Sunday report names Melis Sütşurup Sandal, the wife of Turkish singer Mustafa Sandal.
According to the investigation documents cited in the report, she reportedly earned TL 2.355 billion from Tera’s TLY investment fund, placing her first among the individuals listed.
Her total withdrawals from fund accounts during 2026 reportedly amounted to nearly TL 15.8 billion. As of Sept. 16, 2026, her fund account reportedly held approximately TL 250 million.
The Financial Crimes Investigation Board, known as MASAK, has also begun examining the bank accounts of people who transferred money from their fund investments into their personal bank accounts. Investigators are said to be preparing detailed reports to determine where the approximately TL 187.65 billion ended up.
Authorities launched a sweeping investigation and market intervention last month after suspected price manipulation in a number of thinly traded stocks triggered heavy losses and redemption pressures at investment funds.
The Capital Markets Board (SPK) halted trading in more than 130 funds on Sept. 17. Nearly half a million investors have been affected.
India targets increasing its steel capacity to 604 million metric tons by 2047 from around 220 million tons at present, according a draft steel policy for public consultation released late on Saturday.
Reuters reported last week, citing the draft document, that the policy lays out plans to cut sector emissions and shore up access to iron ore and coking coal, key raw materials, to meet anticipated demand.
The policy aims to cut the sector’s average carbon-emission intensity to around 1.54 tons of carbon dioxide per ton of crude steel by 2047 from the current 2.54 tons, in line with India’s net zero emission goal for 2070, according to the draft document.
The steel ministry expects iron ore demand at 772 million tons and plans to secure access to high-grade reserves by pursuing foreign assets and joint ventures, the document said.
The ministry also expects coking coal demand to reach 236 million tons, the document said, with the government planning to diversify its sourcing via “strategic global outreach” and acquire overseas assets.
Türkiye generated nearly $823 million from vegetable exports from January through September, up 10% from a year earlier, according to a report on Saturday.
Some 651,087 tons of tomatoes, peppers, cucumbers, zucchini, and other vegetables grown in Türkiye found buyers in international markets, according to information compiled by Anadolu Agency (AA) from data provided by the Türkiye Exporters Assembly (TIM).
Fresh vegetable export revenues, which amounted to some $749.15 million between January and September last year, increased by 10% during the same period this year, reaching $822.68 million.
Tomatoes ranked first among fresh vegetable exports, generating $304.16 million in revenue. Peppers followed, bringing in $275.48 million in export earnings.
Compared with the same period last year, revenue from tomato exports increased by 4%, while revenue from pepper exports rose by 29%. Together, these two products accounted for approximately 70% of total fresh vegetable export revenues.
During this period, Türkiye earned $61.38 million from cucumber and gherkin exports, $57.44 million from zucchini exports, and $39.64 million from carrot and radish exports.
Romania largest export market
Romania ranked first among Türkiye’s fresh vegetable export markets, purchasing products worth approximately $147 million.
Germany followed with $132.7 million, while Russia ranked third with $76 million.
During the same period, Türkiye exported fresh vegetables worth $55.48 million to Bulgaria, $49.96 million to Ukraine, and $47.8 million to the Netherlands.
Hayrettin Uçak, the chair of the Turkish Fresh Fruit and Vegetable Exporters’ Associations Sector Board, told Anadolu Agency (AA) that they viewed the increase in export revenues positively, despite changing conditions throughout the vegetable production season.
“Our exports increased by 10% over the previous year during the first nine months, and this success in exports makes us happy,” Uçak said.
“Neighboring and nearby markets are important for our vegetable exports. We need to closely monitor consumer expectations and shopping habits in the European market. Being able to supply buyers with the products they want, in suitable packaging and on time, plays a decisive role in commercial relationships. In this respect, we consider the growth in exports to Romania and Germany particularly important,” he added.
-
Politics3 days agoTürkiye rules out ops against Houthis, vows to help Saudi defense
-
Economy3 days agoTürkiye identifies 214 people, firms made about $3.8B from troubled funds
-
Politics3 days agoTürkiye, France deepen military ties under new road map
-
Economy3 days agoTürkiye extends high-speed rail network to EU border
-
Politics3 days agoTürkiye’s Akıncı drones extend gendarmerie’s reach across country
-
Economy3 days agoEuropean firms called to expand partnerships with Turkish contractors
-
Politics3 days agoTürkiye cooperates with EU for foreign nationals in need
-
Politics2 days agoTurkish Defense Ministry marks 7 years since Operation Peace Spring