Economy
US govt shutdown may turn into protracted crisis, analysts warn
The bitter dispute that drove the U.S. into a government shutdown last week is putting compromise out of reach and threatening to turn a staring contest between the Democrats and Donald Trump’s Republicans into a protracted crisis, analysts warn.
As the nation enters its second week with federal agencies paralyzed, multiple strategists with vivid memories of previous standoffs said that the president and his foes could be in it for the long haul.
“It’s possible this shutdown drags on for weeks, not just days,” said Andrew Koneschusky, a former press secretary for Senator Chuck Schumer, the Democratic leader at the center of the latest deadlock.
“Right now, both sides are dug in and there’s very little talk of compromise.”
At the heart of the showdown is a Democratic demand for an extension of health care subsidies that are due to expire – meaning sharply increased costs for millions of low-income Americans.
On Sunday, Trump blamed minority Democrats for blocking his funding resolution, which needs a handful of their votes.
“They’re causing it. We’re ready to go back,” Trump told reporters at the White House, sounding resigned to a shutdown dragging on.
Trump also told reporters Sunday his administration has already started to permanently fire – not merely furlough – federal workers, again blaming his rivals for “causing the loss of a lot of jobs.”
In March, when the threat of a shutdown last loomed, Democrats blinked first, voting for a six-month Republican resolution to keep the coffers stacked despite policy misgivings.
But Schumer – the top Senate Democrat – was lambasted by the party’s base, and will be reluctant to cave this time around as he faces potential primary challenges from the left.
‘Maximum pain’
For now, Senate Republicans are banking on their Democratic opponents giving in as they repeatedly force votes.
“I could see a temporary agreement coming from both parties by the end of October,” said Jeff Le, a former senior official in California state politics who negotiated with the first Trump administration.
“Anything beyond two months would halt government operations seriously and potentially impact national and homeland security considerations, casting blame on both parties.”
A shift in the strategy would likely depend on either side noticing public sentiment turning against them, analysts told Agence France-Presse (AFP).
Polling so far has been mixed, although Republicans have been taking more flak than Democrats overall.
Trump presided over the longest shutdown in history in 2018 and 2019, when federal agencies stopped work for five weeks.
This time around, the president has been ratcheting up pressure by threatening liberal policy priorities and mass layoffs of public sector workers.
Trump factor
James Druckman, a politics professor at the University of Rochester, sees Trump’s intransigence as a reason to believe this standoff could rival the 2019 record.
“The Trump administration views itself as having an unchecked mandate and thus generally does not compromise,” he told AFP.
“Democrats have been critiqued for not standing strongly enough and the last compromise did not result in any positive outcome for Democrats. Thus, politically, they are inclined to stand firm.”
The 2018-2019 shutdown cost the economy $11 billion in the short term, according to the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office, and $3 billion was never recovered.
U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has warned that the latest shutdown could wreak its own havoc on gross domestic product (GDP) growth.
For California-based financial analyst Michael Ashley Schulman, the economic realities of the shutdown may be what end up forcing compromise.
“If Wall Street gets spooked and Treasury yields spike, even the most ideologically caffeinated will suddenly discover a deep commitment to bipartisan solutions,” he said.
Not all analysts are gloomy about the prospects for a quick resolution.
Aaron Cutler, head of the congressional oversight and investigations practice at global law firm Hogan Lovells, and a former staffer in the House, sees the shutdown lasting 12 days at most.
“Senate Democrats will blink first … While the shutdown continues, there will be no congressional hearings and a lot of work at the agencies will be paused,” he said.
“That’s a win for many Democrats in Congress, but they don’t want the blame for it.”
Türkiye logged a current account surplus of $4.05 billion (TL 199.94 billion) in August, official data shared by the country’s central bank showed Tuesday.
Excluding gold and energy, the current account indicated a net surplus of $8.2 billion during the month, the Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye (CBRT) said in its balance of payments data.
The surplus narrowed from $4.62 billion a year earlier as the goods deficit widened, while the services surplus increased.
The reading marked the second consecutive month in which the current account posted a surplus. Prior to that, the balance last posted a surplus in October 2025, when it stood at $477 million.
The country’s goods deficit reached nearly $3.75 billion in August, up from $2.8 billion a year earlier, the bank stated.
Meanwhile, the services surplus increased to $9.71 billion from $9.34 billion over the same period.
Travel revenues reached $7.28 billion, and transportation revenues reached $3.26 billion.
The primary income deficit edged down to $1.89 billion from $1.9 billion, while the secondary income deficit fell to $18 million from $21 million.
Direct investment saw a net inflow of $141 million in August, as nonresidents recorded a net inflow of $719 million.
Portfolio investment recorded a net outflow of $1 billion in August.
The country’s official reserves increased by $7.14 billion during the same period.
In the first eight months of 2026, Türkiye’s current account deficit widened to $31.5 billion from $19.67 billion in the corresponding period a year earlier.
The 12-month rolling deficit stood at $42.1 billion as of August, according to central bank data.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) revised slightly upward its outlook for the world economy growth for this year, while also warning of growing risks from rising debt, including borrowing related to artificial intelligence.
The IMF says it expects the global economy to grow at a 3.1% pace this year.
That’s up from its July forecast for 3.0% growth and well below the 3.5% expansion in 2025. Growth in 2027 should rebound to 3.4%, it said in its latest Economic Outlook.
The report, released as world economic and financial leaders gather in Bangkok for the fall meetings of the IMF and World Bank, predicts that growth in the U.S. will remain steady at 2.3% in 2026 and 2027.
Collectively, advanced economies will grow 2.1% this year, up from 2.0% in 2025. But growth is forecast to slow to 1.9% next year, it said.
The forecasts are based on a nearly 41% increase in oil prices this year, at an average of $96 a barrel. Global inflation is foreseen at 4.7% in 2026 and falling to 4.1% next year.
They also are based on the assumption that shipments of oil and gas through the Strait of Hormuz will resume by March, and that the boom in AI demand will moderate.
The boom in artificial intelligence is offsetting damage from sharply higher prices for oil and gas, IMF economists say, but it also carries risks.
Its benefits are not shared equally: the U.S. and China account for more than three-quarters of net demand for imports of computer chips and other AI-related equipment, the report said.
“The outlook is highly uneven,” Silvana Tenreyro, the IMF’s director of research, told reporters in Bangkok.
Growth is increasingly concentrated, with 32 countries accounting for 95% of global growth, the report said. That compares with 54 countries as of April.
“The global economy is not simply slowing or accelerating; rather, growth is being reallocated across countries according to their exposure to the war-induced supply shock and AI-related demand strength,” it says.
Athanasios Vamvakidis, deputy director at the IMF’s Monetary and Capital Markets Department, said an AI-related correction in stock markets is just one of the risks. Rising bond yields are another evolving problem, along with cyberthreats that could disrupt financial systems, he said.
AI’s effects on employment are another key focus of the meetings in Bangkok, which IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva described during an event Monday as “a slow moving tsunami, but a tsunami nonetheless.”
“The impact over time on jobs globally we estimate to be around 40% – jobs either augmented or downgraded or eliminated. And we are already seeing some of this impact,” she said.
Last week, the IMF chief urged countries both rich and poor to do a better job of improving their national finances, urging policymakers to do more to tame mounting levels of debt.
That’s especially true at a time of high borrowing costs, Tenreyro said.
Countries that are somewhat insulated from the energy shocks of the Iran war and that are benefiting from rapid adoption of AI are managing to keep growth on track.
Middle East contraction
But developing economies and emerging markets more vulnerable to higher costs for oil and gas will see growth slow to 3.7% this year from 4.5% in 2025, the report says. It forecasts they will regain momentum next year, expanding at a 4.4% annual pace.
The situation is much worse in the Middle East and Central Asia, where those regions’ economies are expected to contract this year before recovering to a 6.3% rate of growth in 2027.
The 21 European countries that share the euro currency are expected to grow by 1.1% this year and 1.2% in 2027.
China, the world’s No. 2 economy, is expected to expand 4.5% this year, down from 5% in 2025, in line with the government’s official target.
India is once again forecast to be the world’s fastest-growing major economy, advancing at a 7% clip, down from a sizzling 7.7% last year.
The IMF is a 191-nation lending organization that works to promote economic growth and financial stability and to reduce global poverty. At the meetings in Bangkok, finance ministers and central bank governors will assess the state of the world economy and discuss strategies to support financial stability and sustained growth.
China’s deal to curb hybrid vehicle exports to the European Union is set to deal a fresh blow to electric vehicle makers that ramped up shipments exempt from the bloc’s tariffs on Chinese-made EVs as sales growth slows at home.
Beijing’s exports of hybrids to the EU’s 27 member states tripled to $7.5 billion in the first half of this year from $2.5 billion a year earlier, according to Chinese customs data. The figure was nearly nine times the $845 million exported in all of 2021.
Since the EU imposed additional tariffs on Chinese-made EVs in 2024, automakers have increasingly turned to plug-in hybrids, which are exempt from the extra duties. Weak charging infrastructure in parts of Europe has also supported demand for plug-in hybrids, which are marketed for their long range and strong fuel economy.
SAIC, BYD and Chery accounted for more than 90% of Chinese hybrid sales volume in the EU, while hybrids represented more than half of their European sales, according to Jefferies.
“It’s making life a bit more difficult for the Chinese, but…that’s not going to stop them as it happened to the electric cars,” said Felipe Munoz of Car Industry Analysis.
“Europe is going to a point where they will need to decide whether they’re doing what the U.S. is doing or just let the whole industry be bought by the Chinese.”
Deal preferable to trade war
Chinese brands captured a record 15% share of Europe’s EV market in the second quarter, up from 9.5% in the first quarter of 2024, while Chinese plug-in hybrids accounted for more than a quarter of the segment, rising sharply from just 1.7% at the beginning of 2024, according to Schmidt Automotive Research.
While European Trade Commissioner Maros Sefcovic said on Friday the agreement would cut the imports of “several million cars over four years,” Brussels and Beijing have yet to disclose how the arrangement will be implemented.
China’s Commerce Ministry said on Monday that the arrangement would allow continued export growth and guarantee China a quota no smaller than that granted to any other source of imports.
Renault CEO Francois Provost said on Monday the surge in Chinese hybrid imports was unsustainable for Europe, but added the agreement was preferable to a trade war and underscored the need to manage trade relations “sensibly.”
Investors largely viewed the agreement as a de-escalation of trade tensions and a sign that tariffs on Chinese hybrids may be off the table for now. Shares in BYD fell 1.8%, while Chery and SAIC rose 1.4% and 0.5%, respectively.
“Overall, we believe it is a risk-relief rally story…as the implementation rules, volume caps, price floors, carve-outs are still pending technical negotiation,” Citi analysts said.
‘Tariff risk off, quota risk on’
The rapid growth of Chinese hybrid sales has increasingly challenged European manufacturers, including Volkswagen, long the region’s leading plug-in hybrid seller, said Li Yanwei, an analyst at the China Automobile Dealers Association.
BYD, China’s largest hybrid vehicle exporter to Europe, sold more plug-in hybrids than fully electric models in the first eight months of the year, with its Seal U SUV its best-selling model, according to data compiled by Li.
Together with Chery, SAIC and Geely, the company has narrowed the gap with Volkswagen, which still commanded a 31.8% share of the EU plug-in hybrid market.
“Let’s see if China honors the agreement or finds workarounds, or temporary tariff exemptions,” said Michael Dunne, a consultant who closely follows the Chinese automotive industry.
Analysts said the deal could ultimately accelerate Chinese automakers’ push to build vehicles in Europe, even if some manufacturers attempt to frontload exports before any quota system takes effect.
“I would expect this to strengthen the incentive for Chinese automakers to manufacture in Europe,” said Bill Russo, founder of Shanghai-based consultancy Automobility.
“If access through imports becomes more constrained, investing closer to the customer becomes more attractive. But localization requires capital…smaller players may reconsider their European ambitions.”
Jefferies analysts said the deal signaled “tariff risk off, quota risk on,” potentially pushing Chinese automakers toward higher-priced models, increasing pressure on German premium brands and accelerating plans to build more vehicles in Europe.
Several top energy executives have been dropped from the schedule of a major summit in Riyadh, as Saudi authorities pressed ahead with the event Monday despite deadly attacks on the capital claimed by Yemen’s Iran-aligned Houthis.
The chief executives of ExxonMobil, TotalEnergies, Shell, Chevron and BP had all been expected at the event, which began on Sunday, but were no longer on the agenda that conference organizers released early Monday.
“To everyone who traveled to Riyadh, thank you,” said Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman, who opened Monday’s session of the gathering for energy policy and industry.
“You know this country is safe and that we hold your protection at whole heart…Our gathering here does not mean the risk is gone.”
Prince Abdulaziz said the events of recent weeks were serious and that the kingdom’s response must be “equally serious.”
The WPC Energy Congress was originally scheduled for April of this year, but was postponed after the U.S. and Israeli war on Iran began in late February. Saudi Arabia was named host in October 2022, the first time the event, first held in Britain in 1933, has been held in the kingdom.
Chief executives of major energy companies are a regular fixture at WPC Energy events and had been scheduled to speak on stage this week about global oil and gas markets, energy security and the energy transition.
A BP spokesperson said the company had “made every effort to participate” in the conference. “Unfortunately, due to travel disruption we are unable to be there in person. We greatly value our long-standing partnerships across the region.”
The WPC Energy Congress is taking place this week at a conference center some 10 kilometers (6 miles) from Riyadh’s international airport, which has been attacked four times in the last week.
One person was killed and nearly a dozen hurt in a new attack on the airport on Sunday evening, Saudi authorities reported, a day after a strike claimed by Houthis killed 13 people and wounded more than 300, the deadliest attack in the kingdom in more than a decade.
Major French supermarket chains Intermarche and Cooperative U were hit by a cyberattack that caused their refrigerators to defrost, the companies said Monday.
Some 150-200 Intermarche shops were targeted, along with almost 100 Cooperative U outlets, in the attack, the two retailers told Agence France-Presse (AFP).
Paris prosecutors confirmed the attack, which reportedly also hit other major chains, and also indicated it had prompted outbreaks of fire.
BFM TV said France’s largest supermarket chain E. Leclerc was also affected, with hackers “managing to remotely trigger the forced defrosting of the refrigeration systems in numerous stores.” E. Leclerc did not immediately confirm the information.
Those branches that were affected will have to “throw away all of the products” that are fresh and frozen, Intermarche told AFP.
Specialist French retail sector news website jebosseengrandedistribution.fr said other retail giants Carrefour Market and Monoprix were affected, but the companies have yet to confirm this.
‘Unprecedented’
The chief executive of Cooperative U, Dominique Schelcher, described the attack as “unprecedented” and confirmed the cyberattack had affected refrigeration systems since Sunday night.
“Targeting equipment essential to the preservation of fresh products and to the food supply of the French people is extremely serious and is unprecedented. It is unacceptable,” he wrote on the social media platform X.
He added that the company’s teams are “fully mobilized” to restore the situation as quickly as possible.
“An investigation will be necessary to shed full light on this attack,” he added.
The office of the Paris prosecutor confirmed to AFP that an investigation has been opened into “the large-scale cyberattack affecting the refrigerators of several major food retail chains across France.”
The probe will help “identify the victims and establish the link with the damage they reported in terms of foodstuff losses and the outbreak of fires,” the prosecutor’s office said.
Intermarche condemned the food waste and financial losses resulting from the attack, without providing figures, and warned there could be issues with insurance policies which do not “cover this type” of in-store incident.
BFM TV said temperatures were “altered remotely, resulting in the destruction of stocks of fresh and frozen products.”
The incident comes against the background of growing concern over the potential havoc that can be caused in Europe in all sectors by cyberattacks by malicious actors.
President Emmanuel Macron, a strong supporter of Ukraine in its fight against the Russian invasion, last month ordered measures to protect France’s critical infrastructure from Russian “hybrid attacks.”
Türkiye could cut its annual natural gas import bill by about $4 billion with its wind power capacity of more than 16 gigawatts (GW), based on current energy prices, according to a senior industry executive.
Ibrahim Erden, president of the Turkish Wind Energy Association (TWEA), said every 1,000 megawatts (MW) of installed wind power capacity could reduce natural gas import costs by around $250 million annually.
Türkiye has generated more than 40% of its electricity from renewable sources in recent years, with the share exceeding 60% during the January-August period
The importance of wind energy has increasingly been viewed through the lens of energy security following the Russia-Ukraine war and conflicts in the Middle East.
Wind power offers a strategic advantage because it does not depend on imported fuels, critical transit routes such as the Strait of Hormuz, or international embargoes, Erden told Anadolu Agency (AA).
Strong manufacturing base
Türkiye has expanded its wind energy sector in recent years, supported by its strong wind potential and geographical advantages, he said.
Global wind power installations increased by 165,000 MW last year, including 2,000 MW in Türkiye, which accounted for around 1.2% of global installations, exceeding its approximately 1% share of the global economy, Erden added.
The country’s total installed electricity capacity stood at 126 GW, while onshore wind power capacity reached 15.9 GW as of the end of October, Erden said.
Erden also highlighted the growth of Türkiye’s domestic wind energy manufacturing base, supported by local component incentives introduced around 2009-2010.
The industry has developed a manufacturing cluster stretching from Izmir through Balikesir, Bursa and Yalova to Istanbul, building on Türkiye’s industrial expertise, including in automotive manufacturing, he said.
Türkiye earns around $2 billion-$2.5 billion annually from exports of wind turbines, components and raw materials, making it an important supplier to global wind energy manufacturers, Erden said.
Rising domestic natural gas production and expanding renewable energy capacity are expected to reduce Türkiye’s energy import bill over the long term, he added.
New investments planned
There are currently five wind tower manufacturers and two blade manufacturers in Türkiye, with the number of blade factories expected to rise to three as new investments come online, Erden said.
He added that 75% of manufacturers plan new investments or capacity expansions over the next three years.
These investments are expected to increase demand for skilled technicians and white-collar professionals, Erden said.
He also highlighted the role of Renewable Energy Resource Area (YEKA) projects in supporting domestic manufacturing, noting that locally produced components account for 65% of the turbines used in such projects.
The government aims to offer investors at least 2,500 MW of new wind and solar capacity annually through YEKA projects, he said, adding that predictable long-term targets and regular capacity allocations help strengthen investor confidence.
Türkiye’s position in global market
Türkiye ranked second in Europe for new onshore wind installations last year, sixth in installed wind capacity and fifth in wind industry manufacturing, Erden said.
Offshore wind projects are also expected to support further sector growth, he added.
Meanwhile, more than 70% of the global wind energy supply chain is concentrated in China, making the energy sector an increasingly important part of the economic competition between China, the United States and Europe, Erden said.
Türkiye is emerging as an alternative supplier, particularly for European markets, amid this competition, he added.
8 GW needed annually
Türkiye targets wind and solar installed capacity to reach 120 GW by 2035. The association aims for wind power to account for 48 GW of that total, he said.
Türkiye needs to install around 8,000 MW of new wind and solar capacity each year to reach its goal, Erden said.
Wind capacity alone would nearly triple electricity generation from wind, potentially increasing the annual value of avoided natural gas imports to around $10 billion-$12 billion under current price and generation assumptions, he added.
“This would mean an additional $6 billion-$8 billion in annual savings on top of the approximately $4 billion currently achievable,” Erden said.
He stressed that expanding grid infrastructure, speeding up permitting procedures and improving access to affordable financing would be essential to achieving the target.
Türkiye needs $24 billion in financing for grid investments alone under its National Energy Plan, while total financing signed or committed through work with international financial institutions stands at around $7.5 billion-$8 billion, Erden said.
Türkiye’s electricity demand is expected to rise significantly in the coming years as electric vehicles become more widespread, data centers expand, artificial intelligence applications grow and industrial electrification accelerates, he said.
This transformation makes expanding renewable energy capacity even more important, Erden added.
-
Economy2 days agoCan diesel prices fall after Trump-Russia deal?
-
Politics3 days agoTurkish Defense Ministry marks 7 years since Operation Peace Spring
-
Politics2 days agoTürkiye-France defense cooperation spark concern in Greek media
-
Politics2 days agoTürkiye presses Greece to hand over FETÖ members, crime bosses
-
Economy1 day agoTop oil execs drop from major event schedule after Riyadh attacks
-
Economy2 days agoTehran’s once-bustling bazaar struggles as war dampens demand
-
Sports2 days agoBezzecchi wins Indonesian GP to hand Martin championship lead
-
Sports2 days agoDeadly Houthi strike on Riyadh airport draws int’l condemnation